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On the use of DSCOVR EPIC to monitor the visible calibration stability of polar orbiting imagers to improve the next edition of the CERES climate data record.

The NASA CERES project has provided the climate quality observed TOA and computed surface fluxes to the scientific community. CERES instruments are onboard the Terra, Aqua, NPP, and NOAA-20 spacecraft. CERES uses MODIS and VIIRS imagers to retrieve cloud properties needed to convert CERES footprint radiance observations into fluxes using empirically derived angular directional models obtained during early CERES record. CERES utilizes geostationary sensors to infer the regional diurnal fluxes in between Terra and Aqua CERES observations. The imagers are also used to radiometrically scale the geostationary sensors (GEO) radiances to the imager calibration reference to ensure that the GEO derived cloud properties and broadband TOA fluxes are consistent in both space and time. Both the imager and GEO retrieved cloud properties are used to compute the surface fluxes. The Aqua-MODIS, SNPP-VIIRS, and NOAA-20 VIIRS afternoon imagers will also need to be radiometrically scaled to the same common calibration reference. Although all three imagers employ onboard solar diffusers, the calibration is not consistent over time due to instrument anomalies and ageing of the onboard calibrators. The CERES imager and GEO calibration group (IGCG) has been tasked to remove the imager channel calibration drifts for the next CERES reprocessing effort. The team will rely primarily on deep convective clouds, desert, and polar ice invariant targets to monitor the imager channel stability. The team uses ray-matched radiance pairs to radiometrically scale the SNPP and NOAA-20 VIIRS sensors to Aqua-MODIS. The radiometric scaling is further validated using geostationary imagers as transfer radiometers. The DSCOVR satellite was launched on February 25, 2015 and orbits around the L1 Lagrange point directly between the Earth and the sun. The EPIC instrument onboard DSCOVR employs a CCD array to image the Earth approximately every 2-hours. The EPIC sensor contains no onboard calibration systems. However, multiple inter-calibration studies have shown that the EPIC imager is very stable in time. This is likely due to the DSCOVR satellite being located about a 1.5M km from the Earth, where very little Earth reflected solar radiation degrades the optics. The excellent radiometric stability of EPIC allows the CERES IGCG to utilize the EPIC observations as a stable reference for monitoring the calibration stability of the three afternoon imagers, as well as to validate the radiometric scaling factors between them. Examples of the imager relative calibration using EPIC before and after radiometric scaling will be shown along with the results from the use of invariant targets to remove imager calibration drifts.

DSCOVR-EPIC↗

The Potosi Reservoir Model 2013

As a part of a larger project co-funded by the United States Department of Energy (US DOE) to evaluate the potential of formations within the Cambro-Ordovician strata above the Mt. Simon as potential targets for carbon sequestration in the Illinois and Michigan Basins, the Illinois Clean Coal Institute (ICCI) requested Schlumberger to evaluate the potential injectivity and carbon dioxide (CO2) plume size of the Cambrian Potosi Formation. The evaluation of this formation was accomplished using wireline data, core data, pressure data, and seismic data from the US DOE-funded Illinois Basin–Decatur Project (IBDP) being conducted by the Midwest Geological Sequestration Consortium in Macon County, Illinois. In 2010, technical performance evaluations on the Cambrian Potosi Formation were performed through reservoir modeling. The data included formation tops from mud logs, well logs from the VW1 and the CCS1 wells, structural and stratigraphic formation from three dimensional (3D) seismic data, and field data from several waste water injection wells for Potosi Formation. Intention was for two million tons per annum (MTPA) of CO2 to be injected for 20 years. In the preceding, the 2010 Potosi heterogeneous model (referred to as the "Potosi Dynamic Model 2010" in this topical report) was re-run using a new injection scenario; 3.2 MTPA for 30 years. The extent of the Potosi Dynamic Model 2010, however, appeared too small for the new injection target. It was not sufficiently large enough to accommodate the evolution of the plume. The new model, Potosi Dynamic Model 2013a, was built by extending the Potosi Dynamic Model 2010 grid to 30 miles x 30 miles (48.3km x48.3km), while preserving all property modeling workflows and layering. This model was retained as the base case of Potosi Dynamic Model 2013a. The Potosi reservoir model was updated to take into account the new data from the verification well VW2 which was drilled in 2012. The new porosity and permeability modeling was performed to take into account the log data from the new well. Revisions of the 2010 modeling assumptions were also done on relative permeability, capillary pressures, formation water salinity, and the maximum allowable well bottomhole pressure. Dynamic simulations were run using the injection target of 3.2 MTPA for 30 years. This new dynamic model was named Potosi Dynamic Model 2013b. Due to the major uncertainties on the vugs permeability, two models were built; the Pessimistic and Optimistic Cases. The Optimistic Case assumes vugs permeability of 9,000 mD, which is analog to the vugs permeability identified in the pressure fall off test of a waste water injector in the Tuscola site, approx. 40 miles (64.4km) away from the IBDP area. The Pessimistic Case assumes that the vugs permeability is equal to the log data, which does not take into account the permeability from secondary porosity. The probability of such case is deemed low and could be treated as the worst case scenario, since the contribution of secondary porosity to the permeability is neglected and the loss circulation events might correspond to a much higher permeability. It is considered important, however, to identify the range of possible reservoir performance since there are no rigorous data available for the vugs permeability. The Optimistic Case gives an average CO2 injection rate of 0.8 MTPA and cumulative injection of 26 MT in 30 years, which corresponds to 27% of the injection target. The injection rate is approx. 3.2 MTPA in the first year as the well is injecting into the surrounding vugs, and declines rapidly to 0.8 MTPA in year 4 once the surrounding vugs are full and the CO2 start to reach the matrix. This implies that according to this preliminary model, a minimum of four (4) wells could be required to achieve the injection target. This result is lower than the injectivity estimated in the Potosi Dynamic Model 2013a (43 MT in 30 years), since the permeability model applied in the Potosi Dynamic Model 2013b is more conservative. This revision was deemed necessary to treat the uncertainty in a more appropriate manner. As the CO2 follows the paths where vugs interconnection exists, a reasonably large and irregular plume extent was created. For the Optimistic Case, the plume extends 17 miles (27.4km) in E-W and 14 miles (22.5km) in N-S directions after 30 years. After injection is completed, the plume continues to migrate laterally, mainly driven by the remaining pressure gradient. After 100 years post injection, the plume extends 20 miles (32.2km) in E-W and 15.5 miles (24.9km) in N-S directions. Should the targeted cumulative injection of 96 MT be achieved; a much larger plume extent could be expected. For the Optimistic Case, the increase of reservoir pressure at the end of injection is approximately 1200 psia (8,274 kPa) around the injector and gradually decreases away from the well. The reservoir pressure increase is less than 30 psia (206.8 kPa) beyond 14 miles (22.5km) away from injector. Should the targeted cumulative injection of 96 MT be achieved; a much larger areal pressure increase could be expected. The initial reservoir pressure is nearly restored after approximately 100 years post injection. The presence of matrix slows down the pressure dissipations. The Pessimistic Case gives an average CO2 injection rate of 0.2 MTPA and cumulative injection of 7 MT in 30 years, which corresponds to 7% of the injection target. This implies that in the worst case scenario, a minimum of sixteen (16) wells could be required to achieve the injection target. The present evaluation is mainly associated with uncertainty on the vugs permeability, distribution, and interconnectivity. The different results indicated by the Optimistic and Pessimistic Cases signify the importance of vugs permeability characterization. Therefore, injection test and pressure interference test among the wells could be considered to evaluate the local vugs permeability, extent, and interconnectivity. Porosity mapping derived from the seismic inversion could also be used in the succeeding task to characterize the lateral porosity distribution within the reservoir. With or without seismic inversion porosity mapping, it is worth exploring whether increased lateral heterogeneity plays a significant role in Potosi injectivity. Investigations on vugular, dolomitic outcrops suggest that there may be significantly greater lateral heterogeneity than what has been modeled here. Facies modeling within the Potosi has yet to be thoroughly addressed. The carbonates during the time of deposition are believed to be regionally extensive. However, it may be worth delineating the reservoir with other regional wells or modern day analogues to understand the extent of the Potosi. More specifically, the model could incorporate lateral changes or trends if deemed necessary to represent facies transition. Data acquisitions to characterize the fracture pressure gradient, the formation water properties, the relative permeability, and the capillary pressure could also be considered in order to allow a more rigorous evaluation of the Potosi storage performance. A simulation using several injectors could also be considered to determine the required number of wells to achieve the injection target while taking into account the pressure interference.

Adushita, Yasmin↗

DEEPEN: Final 3D PFA Favorability Models and 2D Favorability Maps at Newberry Volcano

Part of the DEEPEN (DE-risking Exploration of geothermal Plays in magmatic ENvironments) project involved developing and testing a methodology for a 3D play fairway analysis (PFA) for multiple play types (conventional hydrothermal, superhot EGS, and supercritical). This was tested using new and existing geoscientific exploration datasets at Newberry Volcano. This GDR submission includes images, data, and models related to the 3D favorability and uncertainty models and the 2D favorability and uncertainty maps. The DEEPEN PFA Methodology, detailed in the journal article below, is based on the method proposed by Poux & O'brien (2020), which uses the Leapfrog Geothermal software with the Edge extension to conduct PFA in 3D. This method uses all available data to build a 3D geodata model which can be broken down into smaller blocks and analyzed with advanced geostatistical methods. Each data set is imported into a 3D model in Leapfrog and divided into smaller blocks. Conditional queries can then be used to assign each block an index value which conditionally ranks each block's favorability, from 0-5 with 5 being most favorable, for each model (e.g., lithologic, seismic, magnetic, structural). The values between 0-5 assigned to each block are referred to as index values. The final step of the process is to combine all the index models to create a favorability index. This involves multiplying each index model by a given weight and then summing the resulting values. The DEEPEN PFA Methodology follows this approach, but split up by the specific geologic components of each play type. These components are defined as follows for each magmatic play type: 1. Conventional hydrothermal plays in magmatic environments: Heat, fluid, and permeability 2. Superhot EGS plays: Heat, thermal insulation, and producibility (the ability to create and sustain fractures suitable for and EGS reservoir) 3. Supercritical plays: Heat, supercritical fluid, pressure seal, and producibility (the proper permeability and pressure conditions to allow production of supercritical fluid) More information on these components and their development can be found in Kolker et al., (2022). For the purposes of subsurface imaging, it is easier to detect a permeable fluid-filled reservoir than it is to detect separate fluid and permeability components. Therefore, in this analysis, we combine fluid and permeability for conventional hydrothermal plays, and supercritical fluid and producibility for supercritical plays. We also project the 3D favorability volumes onto 2D surfaces for simplified joint interpretation, and we incorporate an uncertainty component. Uncertainty was modeled using the best approach for the dataset in question, for the datasets where we had enough information to do so. Identifying which subsurface parameters are the least resolved can help qualify current PFA results and focus future efforts in data collection. Where possible, the resulting uncertainty models/indices were weighted using the same weights applied to the respective datasets, and summed, following the PFA methodology above, but for uncertainty.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

A reduced basis approach for PDEs on parametrized geometries based on the shifted boundary finite element method and application to a Stokes flow

Here we propose a model order reduction technique integrating the Shifted Boundary Method (SBM) with a POD-Galerkin strategy. This approach allows to deal with complex parametrized domains in an efficient and straightforward way. The impact of the proposed approach is threefold. First, problems involving parametrizations of complex geometrical shapes and/or large domain deformations can be efficiently solved at full-order by means of the SBM. This unfitted boundary method permits to avoid remeshing and the tedious handling of cut cells by introducing an approximate surrogate boundary. Second, the computational effort is reduced by the development of a Reduced Order Model (ROM) technique based on a POD-Galerkin approach. Third, the SBM provides a smooth mapping from the true to the surrogate domain, and for this reason, the stability and performance of the reduced order basis are enhanced. This feature is the net result of the combination of the proposed ROM approach and the SBM. Similarly, the combination of the SBM with a projection-based ROM gives the great advantage of an easy and fast to implement algorithm considering geometrical parametrization with large deformations. The transformation of each geometry to a reference geometry (morphing) is in fact not required. These combined advantages will allow the solution of PDE problems more efficiently. We illustrate the performance of this approach on a number of two-dimensional Stokes flow problems.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NGEE Arctic Tram: Overview of Tram-mounted Instruments, Co-located Data, Measurement Position, Elevation and Polygon Characterization, Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska, 2014-2018

The NGEE-Arctic Tram operated from 2014 - 2018. It was installed on the Barrow Environmental Observatory in Barrow, Alaska in late May of 2014 and operated through mid-November 2014. The subsequent 2015 through 2018 years followed a similar schedule, but with different deployment dates and data gaps, with the goal always to capture the surface dynamics of the snow melt, growing, and freeze-up seasons. This Tram overview dataset has three objectives: (1) provide new data users with a brief description of the Tram system and its research purposes; (2) provide generally useful Tram site characterization details, including measurement position ground surface elevation, characteristics of the Arctic polygonal tundra under the Tram, vegetation community composition (future), and derived image products; and (3) reference all of the data products and archived datasets that were collected with the Tram-mounted sensors and co-located instruments. This dataset contains two csv files, two zipped files, one tif file, and one pdf file. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A comparison of single-cycle versus multiple-cycle proof testing strategies

An evaluation of single-cycle and multiple-cycle proof testing (MCPT) strategies for SSME components is described. Data for initial sizes and shapes of actual SSME hardware defects are analyzed statistically. Closed-form estimates of the J-integral for surface flaws are derived with a modified reference stress method. The results of load- and displacement-controlled stable crack growth tests on thin IN-718 plates with deep surface flaws are summarized. A J-resistance curve for the surface-cracked configuration is developed and compared with data from thick compact tension specimens. The potential for further crack growth during large unload/reload cycles is discussed, highlighting conflicting data in the literature. A simple model for ductile crack growth during MCPT based on the J-resistance curve is used to study the potential effects of key variables. The projected changes in the crack size distribution during MCPT depend on the interactions between several key parameters, including the number of proof cycles, the nature of the resistance curve, the initial crack size distribution, the component boundary conditions (load vs. displacement control), and the magnitude of the applied load or displacement. The relative advantages of single-cycle and multiple-cycle proof testing appear to be specific, therefore, to individual component geometry, material, and loading.

Hudak, S. J., Jr.↗

Global Response Patterns of Major Rainfed Crops to Adaptation by Maintaining Current Growing Periods and Irrigation

Increasing temperature trends are expected to impact yields of major field crops by affecting various plant processes, such as phenology, growth, and evapotranspiration. However, future projections typically do not consider the effects of agronomic adaptation in farming practices. We use an ensemble of seven Global Gridded Crop Models to quantify the impacts and adaptation potential of field crops under increasing temperature up to 6 K, accounting for model uncertainty. We find that without adaptation, the dominant effect of temperature increase is to shorten the growing period and to reduce grain yields and production. We then test the potential of two agronomic measures to combat warming-induced yield reduction: (i) use of cultivars with adjusted phenology to regain the reference growing period duration and (ii) conversion of rainfed systems to irrigated ones in order to alleviate the negative temperature effects that are mediated by crop evapotranspiration. We find that cultivar adaptation can fully compensate global production losses up to 2 K of temperature increase, with larger potentials in continental and temperate regions. Irrigation could also compensate production losses, but its potential is highest in arid regions, where irrigation expansion would be constrained by water scarcity. Moreover, we discuss that irrigation is not a true adaptation measure but rather an intensification strategy, as it equally increases production under any temperature level. In the tropics, even when introducing both adapted cultivars and irrigation, crop production declines already at moderate warming, making adaptation particularly challenging in these areas.

Minoli, Sara↗

New Developments In NASA’s Entry Systems Modeling Project

This paper describes recent developments for modeling entry, descent, and landing (EDL)of spacecraft in support of NASA’s exploration missions. Mission-specific research and model development for entry systems occurs across the Agency (e.g., within flight programs like Artemis/Orion and Mars Sample Return), however the aim of this paper is to discuss the research conducted by NASA’s Entry Systems Modeling (ESM) Project, which serves as the Agency’s only effort dedicated to advancing modeling capabilities that cross-cut multiple technical disciplines, missions and destinations. The ESM portfolio is developed to address the specific needs expressed by a cross-section of NASA stakeholders, including flight and research projects, technical leadership, and subject matter experts. Technology development in ESM is organized and prioritized from a system-level perspective, resulting in four broad technical areas of investment: (1) Thermal Protection System (TPS) material modeling, (2) Shock layer kinetics and radiation, (3) Aerosciences, and (4) Guidance, navigation, and control. In addition to the core technical areas, special topics are rolled into the project portfolio as specific demands arise. Current special topics include TPS Certification by Analysis, improving understanding of woven TPS material performance; Hypersonic Wake Flows, assessing and improving predictions of base flows; and the MEDLI2 Deep Dive, furthering analysis of data obtained during Mars2020 mission’s entry and descent at Mars. Key results from each of these areas are presented in this paper, along with associated references to serve as a roadmap for other EDL researchers to access NASA’s publications.

Aaron M Brandis↗

Flow Redirection and Induction in Steady State (FLORIS) Wind Plant Power Production Data Sets

This dataset contains turbine- and plant-level power outputs for 252,500 cases of diverse wind plant layouts operating under a wide range of yawing and atmospheric conditions. The power outputs were computed using the Gaussian wake model in NREL's FLOw Redirection and Induction in Steady State (FLORIS) model, version 2.3.0. The 252,500 cases include 500 unique wind plants generated randomly by a specialized Plant Layout Generator (PLayGen) that samples randomized realizations of wind plant layouts from one of four canonical configurations: (i) cluster, (ii) single string, (iii) multiple string, (iv) parallel string. Other wind plant layout parameters were also randomly sampled, including the number of turbines (25-200) and the mean turbine spacing (3D-10D, where D denotes the turbine rotor diameter). For each layout, 500 different sets of atmospheric conditions were randomly sampled. These include wind speed in 0-25 m/s, wind direction in 0 deg.-360 deg., and turbulence intensity chosen from low (6%), medium (8%), and high (10%). For each atmospheric inflow scenario, the individual turbine yaw angles were randomly sampled from a one-sided truncated Gaussian on the interval 0 deg.-30 deg. oriented relative to wind inflow direction. This random data is supplemented with a collection of yaw-optimized samples where FLORIS was used to determine turbine yaw angles that maximize power production for the entire plant. To generate this data, a subset of cases were selected (50 atmospheric conditions from 50 layouts each for a total of additional 2,500 cases) for which FLORIS was re-run with wake steering control optimization. The IEA onshore reference turbine, which has a 130 m rotor diameter, a 110 m hub height, and a rated power capacity of 3.4 MW was used as the turbine for all simulations. The simulations were performed using NREL's Eagle high performance computing system in February 2021 as part of the Spatial Analysis for Wind Technology Development project funded by the U.S. Department of Energy Wind Energy Technologies Office. The data was collected, reformatted, and preprocessed for this OEDI submission in May 2023 under the Foundational AI for Wind Energy project funded by the U.S. Department of Energy Wind Energy Technologies Office. This dataset is intended to serve as a benchmark against which new artificial intelligence (AI) or machine learning (ML) tools may be tested. Baseline AI/ML methods for analyzing this dataset have been implemented, and a link to their repository containing those models has been provided. The .h5 data file structure can be found in the GitHub repository under explore_wind_plant_data_h5.ipynb.

AI↗

DEEPEN 3D PFA Favorability Models and 2D Favorability Maps at Newberry Volcano

DEEPEN stands for DE-risking Exploration of geothermal Plays in magmatic ENvironments. Part of the DEEPEN project involved developing and testing a methodology for a 3D play fairway analysis (PFA) for multiple play types (conventional hydrothermal, superhot EGS, and supercritical). This was tested using new and existing geoscientific exploration datasets at Newberry Volcano. This GDR submission includes images, data, and models related to the 3D favorability and uncertainty models and the 2D favorability and uncertainty maps. The DEEPEN PFA Methodology is based on the method proposed by Poux et al. (2020), which uses the Leapfrog Geothermal software with the Edge extension to conduct PFA in 3D. This method uses all available data to build a 3D geodata model which can be broken down into smaller blocks and analyzed with advanced geostatistical methods. Each data set is imported into a 3D model in Leapfrog and divided into smaller blocks. Conditional queries can then be used to assign each block an index value which conditionally ranks each block's favorability, from 0-5 with 5 being most favorable, for each model (e.g., lithologic, seismic, magnetic, structural). The values between 0-5 assigned to each block are referred to as index values. The final step of the process is to combine all the index models to create a favorability index. This involves multiplying each index model by a given weight and then summing the resulting values. The DEEPEN PFA Methodology follows this approach, but split up by the specific geologic components of each play type. These components are defined as follows for each magmatic play type: 1. Conventional hydrothermal plays in magmatic environments: Heat, fluid, and permeability 2. Superhot EGS plays: Heat, thermal insulation, and producibility (the ability to create and sustain fractures suitable for and EGS reservoir) 3. Supercritical plays: Heat, supercritical fluid, pressure seal, and producibility (the proper permeability and pressure conditions to allow production of supercritical fluid) More information on these components and their development can be found in Kolker et al., 2022. For the purposes of subsurface imaging, it is easier to detect a permeable fluid-filled reservoir than it is to detect separate fluid and permeability components. Therefore, in this analysis, we combine fluid and permeability for conventional hydrothermal plays, and supercritical fluid and producibility for supercritical plays. More information on this process is described in the following sections. We also project the 3D favorability volumes onto 2D surfaces for simplified joint interpretation, and we incorporate an uncertainty component. Uncertainty was modeled using the best approach for the dataset in question, for the datasets where we had enough information to do so. Identifying which subsurface parameters are the least resolved can help qualify current PFA results and focus future efforts in data collection. Where possible, the resulting uncertainty models/indices were weighted using the same weights applied to the respective datasets, and summed, following the PFA methodology above, but for uncertainty. There are two different versions of the Leapfrog model and associated favorability models: - v1.0: The first release in June 2023 - v2.1: The second release, with improvements made to the earthquake catalog (included additional identified events, removed duplicate events), to the temperature model (fixed a deep BHT), and to the index models (updated the seismicity-heat source index models for supercritical and EGS, and the resistivity-insulation index models for all three play types). Also uses the jet color map rather than the magma color map for improved interpretability. - v2.1.1: Updated to include v2.0 uncertainty results (see below for uncertainty model versions) There are two different versions of the associated uncertainty models: - v1.0: The first release in June 2023 - v2.0: The se...

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

The Potosi Reservoir Model 2013c, Property Modeling Update

As part of a larger project co-funded by the United States Department of Energy (US DOE) to evaluate the potential of formations within the Cambro-Ordovician strata above the Mt. Simon as potential targets for carbon sequestration in the Illinois and Michigan Basins, the Illinois Clean Coal Institute (ICCI) requested Schlumberger to evaluate the potential injectivity and carbon dioxide (CO2) plume size of the Cambrian Potosi Formation. The evaluation of this formation was accomplished using wireline data, core data, pressure data, and seismic data from this project as well as two other separately funded projects: the US DOE-funded Illinois Basin–Decatur Project (IBDP) being conducted by the Midwest Geological Sequestration Consortium (MGSC) in Macon County, Illinois, and the Illinois Industrial Carbon Capture and Sequestration (ICCS) project funded through the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. In 2010, technical performance evaluations on the Cambrian Potosi Formation were performed through reservoir modeling. The data included formation tops from mud logs, well logs from the Verification Well #1 (VW1) and the Injection Well (CCS1), structural and stratigraphic formation from three dimensional (3D) seismic data, and field data from several waste water injection wells for Potosi Formation. The intention was for 2.2 million tons per annum (2 million tonnes per annum [MTPA]) of CO2 to be injected for 20 years. In the Task Error! Reference source not found., the 2010 Potosi heterogeneous model (referred to as the "Potosi Dynamic Model 2010") was re-run using a new injection scenario of 3.5 million tons per annum (3.2 MTPA) for 30 years. The extent of the Potosi Dynamic Model 2010, however, appeared too small for the new injection target. The models size was insufficient to accommodate the evolution of the plume. The new model, Potosi Dynamic Model 2013a, was built by extending the Potosi Dynamic Model 2010 grid to 30 by 30 mi (48 by 48 km), while preserving all property modeling workflows and layering. This model was retained as the base case. In the preceding Task [1], the Potosi reservoir model was updated to take into account the new data from the Verification Well #2 (VW2) which was drilled in 2012. The porosity and permeability modeling was revised to take into account the log data from the new well. Revisions of the 2010 modeling assumptions were also done on relative permeability, capillary pressures, formation water salinity, and the maximum allowable well bottomhole pressure. Dynamic simulations were run using the injection target of 3.5 million tons per annum (3.2 MTPA) for 30 years. This dynamic model was named Potosi Dynamic Model 2013b. In this Task, a new property modeling workflow was applied, where seismic inversion data guided the porosity mapping and geobody extraction. The static reservoir model was fully guided by PorosityCube interpretations and derivations coupled with petrophysical logs from three wells. The two main assumptions are: porosity features in the PorosityCube that correlate with lost circulation zones represent vugular zones, and that these vugular zones are laterally continuous. Extrapolation was done carefully to populate the vugular facies and their corresponding properties outside the seismic footprint up to the boundary of the 30 by 30 mi (48 by 48 km) model. Dynamic simulations were also run using the injection target of 3.5 million tons per annum (3.2 MTPA) for 30 years. This new dynamic model was named Potosi Dynamic Model 2013c. Reservoir simulation with the latest model gives a cumulative injection of 43 million tons (39 MT) in 30 years with a single well, which corresponds to 40% of the injection target. The injection rate is approx. 3.2 MTPA in the first six months as the well is injecting into the surrounding vugs, and declines rapidly to 1.8 million tons per annum (1.6 MTPA) in year 3 once the surrounding vugs are full and the CO2 start to reach the matrix. After, the injection rate declines gradually to 1.2 million tons per annum (1.1 MTPA) in year 18 and stays constant. This implies that a minimum of three (3) wells could be required in the Potosi to reach the injection target. The injectivity evaluated in this Task was higher compared to the preceding Task, since the current facies modeling (guided by the porosity map from the seismic inversion) indicated a higher density of vugs within the vugular zones. 5 As the CO2 follows the paths where vugs interconnection exists, a reasonably large and irregular plume extent was created. After 30 years of injection, the plume extends 13.7 mi (22 km) in E-W and 9.7 mi (16 km) in N-S directions. After injection finishes, the plume continues to migrate laterally, mainly driven by the remaining pressure gradient. After 60 years post-injection, the plume extends 14.2 mi (22.8 km) in E-W and 10 mi (16 km) in N-S directions, and remains constant as the remaining pressure gradient has become very low. Should the targeted cumulative injection of 106 million tons (96 MT) be achieved; a much larger plume extent could be expected. The increase of reservoir pressure at the end of injection is approximately 1,200 psia (8,274 kPa) around the injector and gradually decreases away from the well. The reservoir pressure increase is less than 10 psia (69 kPa) beyond 14 mi (23 km) away from injector. Should the targeted cumulative injection of 106 million tons (96 MT) be achieved; a much larger areal pressure increase could be expected. The reservoir pressure declines rapidly during the first 30 years post injection and the initial reservoir pressure is nearly restored after 100 years post-injection. The present evaluation is mainly associated with uncertainty on the vugs permeability and interconnectivity. The use of porosity mapping from seismic inversion might have reduced the uncertainty on the lateral vugs body distributions. However, major uncertainties on the Potosi vugs permeability remains. Therefore, injection test and pressure interference test among the wells could be considered to evaluate the local vugs permeability, extent, and interconnectivity. Facies modeling within the Potosi has yet to be thoroughly addressed. The carbonates during the time of deposition are believed to be regionally extensive. However, it may be worth delineating the reservoir with other regional wells or modern day analogues to understand the extent of the Potosi. More specifically, the model could incorporate lateral changes or trends if deemed necessary to represent facies transition. Data acquisitions to characterize the fracture pressure gradient, the formation water properties, the relative permeability, and the capillary pressure could also be considered in order to allow a more rigorous evaluation of the Potosi storage performance. A simulation using several injectors could also be considered to determine the required number of wells and appropriate spacing to achieve the injection target while taking into account the pressure interference.

Adushita, Yasmin↗

STEADY STATE MODELING OF THE MINIMUM CRITICAL CORE OF THE TRANSIENT REACTOR TEST FACILITY

With the advent of next generation reactor systems and new fuel designs, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has identified the need for the resumption of transient testing of nuclear fuels. The DOE has decided that the Transient Reactor Test Facility (TREAT) at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) is best suited for future testing. TREAT is a thermal neutron spectrum, air-cooled, nuclear test facility that is designed to test nuclear fuels in transient scenarios. These specific scenarios range from simple temperature transients to full fuel melt accidents. DOE has expressed a desire to develop a simulation capability that will accurately model the experiments before they are irradiated at the facility. It is the aim for this capability to have an emphasis on effective and safe operation while minimizing experimental time and cost. The multi physics platform MOOSE has been selected as the framework for this project. The goals for this work are to identify the fundamental neutronics properties of TREAT and to develop an accurate steady state model for future multiphysics transient simulations. In order to minimize computational cost, the effect of spatial homogenization and angular discretization are investigated. It was found that significant anisotropy is present in TREAT assemblies and to capture this effect, explicit modeling of cooling channels and inter-element gaps is necessary. For this modeling scheme, single element calculations at 293 K gave power distributions with a root mean square difference of 0.076% from those of reference SERPENT calculations. The minimum critical core configuration with identical gap and channel treatment at 293 K resulted in a root mean square, total core, radial power distribution 2.423% different than those of reference SERPENT solutions.

Critical↗

First principle calculations of effective exchange integrals: Comparison between SR (BS) and MR computational results

First principle calculations of effective exchange integrals (J) in the Heisenberg model for diradical species were performed by both symmetry-adapted (SA) multi-reference (MR) and broken-symmetry (BS) single reference (SR) methods. Mukherjee-type (Mk) state specific (SS) MR coupled-cluster (CC) calculations by the use of natural orbital (NO) references of ROHF, UHF, UDFT and CASSCF solutions were carried out to elucidate J values for di- and poly-radical species. Spin-unrestricted Hartree Fock (UHF) based coupled-cluster (CC) computations were also performed to these species. Comparison between UHF-NO(UNO)-MkMRCC and BS UHF-CC computational results indicated that spin-contamination of UHF-CC solutions still remains at the SD level. In order to eliminate the spin contamination, approximate spin-projection (AP) scheme was applied for UCC, and the AP procedure indeed corrected the error to yield good agreement with MkMRCC in energy. The CC double with spin-unrestricted Brueckner's orbital (UBD) was furthermore employed for these species, showing that spin-contamination involved in UHF solutions is largely suppressed, and therefore AP scheme for UBCCD removed easily the rest of spin-contamination. We also performed spin-unrestricted pure- and hybrid-density functional theory (UDFT) calculations of diradical and polyradical species. Three different computational schemes for total spin angular momentums were examined for the AP correction of the hybrid (H) UDFT. HUDFT calculations followed by AP, HUDFT(AP), yielded the S-T gaps that were qualitatively in good agreement with those of MkMRCCSD, UHF-CC(AP) and UB-CC(AP). Thus a systematic comparison among MkMRCCSD, UCC(AP) UBD(AP) and UDFT(AP) was performed concerning with the first principle calculations of J values in di- and poly-radical species. It was found that BS (AP) methods reproduce MkMRCCSD results, indicating their applicability to large exchange coupled systems.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

I. Final Report for DOE SBIR Phase I Project DE-SC0013795 Final Report for DOE SBIR Phase I Project DE-SC0013795 Microtron-based Compact, Portable Gamma-Ray Source

Microtron-based Compact, Portable Gamma-Ray Source. The objective of Phase I of this project was to produce a conceptual design of a prototype compact microtron electron accelerator, which could be designed, built, and demonstrated in Phase II of the project. The conceptual design study included an analysis of the parameters of the microtron and its components, and the expected performance of the prototype microtron as a source of x-rays and/or RF neutrons in the MeV energy range. The major components of the microtron are the magnet, the accelerating system, the power system, the vacuum system, the control system, the beam extraction system and the targets to produce x-rays (and/or neutrons). Our objectives for the design of the prototype were for it to be compact, cost-effective, capable of producing high intensity x-ray (an/or neutron) fluxes. In addition, the prototype was to be easily assembled and disassembled so that components could be easily replaced. The main parameters for the prototype are the following: the range of electron kinetic energies, the output power, the RF frequency band (X-band, C-band, or S-Band), the type of injection (Type I or Type II), the magnet type, i.e. permanent magnet, electromagnet, or a hybrid combination of permanent and electromagnet. The results of the Phase I study and analysis for a prototype microtron are the following: The electron energy range can be varied from below 6 MeV to 9 MeV, the optimal frequency range is S-Band (2-4 GHz) RF frequency, Type II injection (described below), and the magnet type is the hybrid version. The prototype version will be capable of producing gamma ray doses of ~1800 R/min-m and neutron fluxes of up to ~6 x 10 10 n/s with appropriate targets. The results of the Phase I study and analysis are provided below. The proposed Phase II plan was to demonstrate the prototype at low beam power. In the subsequent Phase III, high power tests would be performed, and the design of commercial versions of microtrons with various energies, sizes and types would be produced and marketed, including a more compact and more portable 6 MeV battery-powered model that more closely meets the requirements in the original FOA topic description. In the course of the Phase I study, we also identified another microtron version, one that was larger (not compact) and more powerful than that of the Phase II prototype, which could serve as an intense source of photo- neutrons, up to 4 x 10 12 n/s for use in nuclear medicine, short-lived isotope production, or other applications. In addition, it could produce gamma dose rates up to 130 kR/min-m with a heavy metal bremsstrahlung target. The results and specifications of this were submitted to IPAC16 (Reference [12]) the paper is included in Addendum B. Because this version was beyond the scope of the Phase I project, there is no additional description in the Final Report.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Quantitative determination of zero-gravity effects on electronic materials processing germanium crystal growth with simultaneous interface demarcation. Experiment MA-060

Experiment MA-060 was designed to establish the crystal growth and segregation characteristics of a melt in a directional solidification configuration under near zero-g conditions. The interface demarcation technique was incorporated into the experiment since it constitutes a unique tool for recording the morphology of the growth rate throughout solidification, and for establishing an absolute time reference framework for all stages of the solidification process. An extensive study was performed of the germanium crystals grown during the Apollo-Soyuz Test Project mission. It was found that single crystal growth was achieved and that the interface demarcation functioned successfully. There was no indication that convection driven by thermal or surface tension gradients was present in the melt. The gallium segregation, in the absence of gravity, was found to be fundamentally different in its initial and its subsequent stages from that of the ground-based tests. None of the existing theoretical models for growth and segregation can account for the observed segregation behavior in the absence of gravity.

Gatos, H. C.↗

Nonlinear stability and control study of highly maneuverable high performance aircraft

This project is intended to research and develop new nonlinear methodologies for the control and stability analysis of high-performance, high angle-of-attack aircraft such as HARV (F18). Past research (reported in our Phase 1, 2, and 3 progress reports) is summarized and more details of final Phase 3 research is provided. While research emphasis is on nonlinear control, other tasks such as associated model development, system identification, stability analysis, and simulation are performed in some detail as well. An overview of various models that were investigated for different purposes such as an approximate model reference for control adaptation, as well as another model for accurate rigid-body longitudinal motion is provided. Only a very cursory analysis was made relative to type 8 (flexible body dynamics). Standard nonlinear longitudinal airframe dynamics (type 7) with the available modified F18 stability derivatives, thrust vectoring, actuator dynamics, and control constraints are utilized for simulated flight evaluation of derived controller performance in all cases studied.

Mohler, R. R.↗

Single-Fuel Reactivity Controlled Compression Ignition Combustion Enabled by Onboard Fuel Reformation (Final Report)

Reactivity-Controlled Compression Ignition (RCCI) is a promising new advanced, low temperature combustion mode that offers efficiencies equal to or greater than conventional diesel combustion, but significantly lower soot and NOx emissions. Additionally, RCCI has enhanced controllability over the combustion process compared to some of the other advanced combustion modes. Therefore, RCCI combustion has the potential to be of great benefit to the public by increasing the efficiency and reducing the harmful pollutant emissions from transportation. However, RCCI combustion achieves this favorable level of performance through the use of two distinct fuels (e.g., diesel and gasoline, diesel and natural gas, or diesel and ethanol). In a vehicle application, RCCI therefore requires two different fuel tanks and fuel injection systems, which presents a significant drawback to the commercialization RCCI. This project proposed a new concept to enable RCCI combustion from a single parent fuel stored onboard the vehicle in a single fuel tank. Specifically, the parent fuel would be stored in the fuel tank and one branch of the fuel system would deliver the parent fuel, unaltered, to the cylinder, while a second branch of the fuel system would route the parent fuel through a fuel reformer to chemically react the fuel into a gaseous fuel mixture, called “reformate”, that has different properties from the original parent fuel. In this way, there can be two fuels at the engine that have different properties, but only one parent fuel needs to be stored and refilled in the vehicle. This initial, exploratory investigation into the feasibility of this promising new concept included reacting three potential parent fuels (diesel, gasoline, and natural gas) in a fuel reformer and determining the composition of the gaseous reformate fuel that exited the fuel reformer. There are different types of reformation processes, but since this project was a proof-of-concept investigation into the potential of Single-Fuel RCCI and the combustion process in the cylinder, a catalytic partial oxidation (CPOX) reformation process was selected, which is more straightforward to perform and control, and would potentially be easier to implement in a vehicle application compared to other reformation processes. Once the three parent fuels were reformed to varying degrees and their reformate compositions were determined, their autoignition tendencies were experimentally determined by comparing advanced combustion results of the reformate mixtures with known reference fuels. This showed that diesel fuel and its reformate fuel mixture exhibited the largest reactivity separation, which is necessary to enable RCCI combustion in the cylinder. Using diesel fuel as the parent fuel, experimental testing was conducted to provide a better understanding of the operational considerations, benefits, and drawbacks of Single-Fuel RCCI with onboard fuel reformation. The experimental testing was accompanied by computational fluid dynamics and system-level modeling to help complement the experiments and further expand the understanding. The main conclusions are that Single-Fuel RCCI using diesel fuel as the direct injected, high reactivity fuel and diesel’s gaseous reformate mixture as the premixed, low reactivity fuel is viable. The efficiencies were equal to, or sometimes greater than, RCCI with conventional fuel pairs, and the emissions were comparable as well. A key consideration is that gaseous reformate fuel contains a large amount of diluents in the fuel which displace air entering the cylinder and act as EGR inside the cylinder. Additionally, the reactivity separation between diesel and its reformate fuel mixture is larger than diesel-gasoline, but less than diesel-natural gas, and the combustion process therefore responded in a manner that was between the two conventional fuel pairs. Finally, although achievable in the cylinder, there are practical drawbacks or other disadvantages of Single-Fuel RCCI with onboard fuel reformation. First, this project used a CPOX reformation process which is exothermic, meaning that a portion of the fuel’s energy was released in the reformer where it could not be converted into useful work. This constituted an efficiency penalty of the system of on the order of 10% or 4 percentage points. Future research should therefore focus on alternate reforming processes including steam-methane reforming or autothermal reforming where there might not be any energy released in the reformer, or there could even be an energy gain in the reformer (through an endothermic process with waste heat recovery). Practical drawbacks that exist, but were beyond the scope of this preliminary proof-of-concept research project, are the added cost of the fuel reformer, which is a catalyst made of precious metals, transient response of the system, and the lifetime of the fuel reformer.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Nucleation and crystal growth behavior of nepheline in simulated high-level waste glasses

The Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) has been tasked with supporting glass formulation development and process control strategies in key technical areas, relevant to the Department of Energy’s Office of River Protection (DOE-ORP) and related to high-level waste (HLW) vitrification at the Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP). Of specific interest is the development of predictive models for crystallization of nepheline (NaAlSiO4) in HLW glasses formulated at high alumina concentrations. This report summarizes recent progress by researchers at SRNL towards developing a predicative tool for quantifying nepheline crystallization in HLW glass canisters using laboratory experiments. In this work, differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) was used to obtain the temperature regions over which nucleation and growth of nepheline occur in three simulated HLW glasses - two glasses representative of WTP projections and one glass representative of the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) product. The DWPF glass, which has been studied previously, was chosen as a reference composition and for comparison purposes. Complementary quantitative X-ray diffraction (XRD) and optical microscopy confirmed the validity of the methodology to determine nucleation and growth behavior as a function of temperature. The nepheline crystallization growth region was determined to generally extend from ~ 500 to >850 °C, with the maximum growth rates occurring between 600 and 700 °C. For select WTP glass compositions (high Al2O3 and B2O3), the nucleation range extended from ~ 450 to 600 °C, with the maximum nucleation rates occurring at ~ 530 °C. For the DWPF glass composition, the nucleation range extended from ~ 450 to 750 °C with the maximum nucleation rate occurring at ~ 640 °C. The nepheline growth at the peak temperature, as determined by XRD, was between 35 - 75 wt.% /hour. A maximum nepheline growth rate of ~ 0.1 mm/hour at 700 °C was measured for the DWPF composition using optical microscopy. This research establishes a viable alternative to more traditional techniques for evaluating nepheline crystallization in large numbers of glasses, which are prohibitively time consuming or otherwise impractical. The ultimate objective is to combine the nucleation and growth information obtained from DSC, like that presented in this report, with computer simulations of glass cooling within the canister to accurately predict nepheline crystallization in HLW during processing through WTP.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗