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Neutral composition measurements by the Pioneer Venus Neutral Mass Spectrometer during orbiter re-entry

Measurements by the Pioneer Venus Orbiter Neutral Mass Spectrometer (ONMS) instrument during Orbiter re-entry have been made from 18-24 hours local solar time, above 170 km, of He, and from midnight to 4.5 hours below 200 km of He, N, O, CO, N2, and CO2. Preliminary results indicate that in the post-midnight sector He is the dominant species above 170 km, O the dominant species from 140-170 km and CO2 the dominant species below 140 km. Estimated scale height temperatures for He, O, and CO2 of about 105-120 K are similar to those observed in 1978-1980 at higher solar activity. The densities at 1 am local solar time and at 150 km are within 35% of those measured earlier. The He bulge is also similar to that observed in 1978-1980 confirming that thermosphere superrotation is still present. Comparison with the results of a Venus Thermosphere General Circulation Model suggests the nightside is not sensitive to changes in solar activity due to the isolation of the day and night thermospheres. apparently, the relatively small changes in the dayside thermosphere with solar activity have little impact on the nightside thermosphere.

Kasprzak, W. T.↗

Neutral Composition Measurements by the Pioneer Venus Neutral Mass Spectrometer During Orbiter Re-Entry

Measurements by the Pioneer Venus Orbiter Neutral Mass Spectrometer (ONMS) instrument during Orbiter re-entry have been made from 18-24 hours local solar time, above 170 km, of He, and from midnight to 4.5 hours below 200 km of He, N, O, CO, N2, and CO2. Preliminary results indicate that in the post-midnight sector He is the dominant species above 170 km, O the dominant species from 140-170 km and CO2 the dominant species below 140 km. Estimated scale height temperatures for He, O and CO2 of about 105-120 K are similar to those observed in 1978-80 at higher solar activity. The densities at 1 am local solar time and at 150 km are within 35% of those measured earlier. The He bulge is also similar to that observed in 1978-80 confirming that thermosphere superrotation is still present. Comparison with the results of a Venus Thermosphere General Circulation Model suggests the nightside is not sensitive to changes in solar activity due to the isolation of the day and night thermospheres. Apparently, the relatively small changes in the dayside thermosphere with solar activity have little impact on the nightside thermosphere.

Kasprzak, W. T.↗

TRMM Science Highlights and Status of Precipitation Estimates on Monthly and Finder Time Scales

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) has completed three years in orbit. A summary of research highlights will be presented focusing on application of TRMM data to topics ranging from climate analysis, through improving forecasts, to microphysical research. Monthly surface rainfall estimates over the ocean based on different instruments on TRMM currently differ by 20%. The difference is not surprising considering the different type of observations available for the first time from TRMM with both the passive and active microwave sensors. Resolving this difference will strengthen the validity and utility of ocean rainfall estimates and is the topic of ongoing research utilizing various facets of the TRMM validation and field experiment programs. The TRMM rainfall estimates are intercompared among themselves and with other estimates, including those of the standard, monthly Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) analysis. The GPCP analysis agrees roughly in magnitude with the passive microwave-based TRMM estimates which is not surprising considering GPCP over-ocean estimates are based on passive microwave observations. A three year TRMM rainfall climatology is presented based on the TRMM merged product, including anomaly fields related to the changing ENSO situation during the mission. Results of merging TRMM, other passive microwave observations, and geosynchronous infrared rainfall estimates into a global, tropical 3-hour time resolution analysis will also be described.

Adler, Robert↗

Consistency of Post-Newtonian Waveforms with Numerical Relativity

General relativity predicts the gravitational radiation signatures of mergers of compact binaries,such as coalescing binary black hole systems. Derivations of waveform predictions for such systems are required for optimal scientific analysis of observational gravitational wave data, and have so far been achieved primarily with the aid of the post-Newtonian (PN) approximation. The quaIity of this treatment is unclear, however, for the important late inspiral portion. We derive late-inspiral wave forms via a complementary approach, direct numerical simulation of Einstein's equations, which has recently matured sufficiently for such applications. We compare waveform phasing from simulations covering the last approximately 14 cycles of gravitational radiation from an equal-mass binary system of nonspinning black holes with corresponding 3PN and 3.5PN waveforms. We find phasing agreement consistent with internal error estimates based in either approach, at the level of one radian over approximately 10 cycles. The result suggests that PN waveforms for this system are effective roughly until the system reaches its last stable orbit just prior to the final merger.

Baker, John G.↗

On the synchrotron emission in kinetic simulations of runaway electrons in magnetic confinement fusion plasmas

Developing avoidance or mitigation strategies of runaway electrons (REs) in magnetic confinement fusion (MCF) plasmas is of crucial importance for the safe operation of ITER. In order to develop these strategies, an accurate diagnostic capability that allows good estimates of the RE distribution function in these plasmas is needed. Synchrotron radiation (SR) of RE in MCF, besides of being one of the main damping mechanisms for RE in the high energy relativistic regime, is routinely used in current MCF experiments to infer the parameters of RE energy and pitch angle distribution functions. In the present paper we address the long standing question about what are the relationships between different REs distribution functions and their corresponding synchrotron emission simultaneously including: full-orbit effects, information of the spectral and angular distribution of SR of each electron, and basic geometric optics of a camera. We study the spatial distribution of the SR on the poloidal plane, and the statistical properties of the expected value of the synchrotron spectra of REs. Here we observe a strong dependence of the synchrotron emission measured by the camera on the pitch angle distribution of runaways, namely we find that crescent shapes of the spatial distribution of the SR as measured by the camera relate to RE distributions with small pitch angles, while ellipse shapes relate to distributions of runaways with larger the pitch angles. A weak dependence of the synchrotron emission measured by the camera with the RE energy, value of the q-profile at the edge, and the chosen range of wavelengths is observed. Furthermore, we find that oversimplifying the angular dependence of the SR changes the shape of the synchrotron spectra, and overestimates its amplitude by approximately 20 times for avalanching runaways and by approximately 60 times for mono-energetic distributions of runaways.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

TRMM: Science Highlights and Status of Precipitation Estimates on Monthly and Finer Time Scales

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) has completed three years in orbit. A summary of research highlights will be presented focusing on application of TRMM data to topics ranging from climate analysis, through improving forecasts, to microphysical research. Monthly surface rainfall estimates Over the ocean based on different instruments on TRMM currently differ by 20%. The difference is not surprising considering the different type of observations available for the first time from TRMM with both the passive and active microwave sensors. Resolving this difference will strengthen the validity and utility of ocean rainfall estimates and is the topic of ongoing research utilizing various facets of the TRMM validation and field experiment programs. The TRMM rainfall estimates are intercompared among themselves and with other estimates, including those of the standard, monthly Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) analysis. The GPCP analysis agrees roughly in magnitude with the passive microwave-based TRMM estimates which is not surprising considering GPCP over-ocean estimates are based on passive microwave observations. A three-year TRMM rainfall climatology is presented based on the TRMM merged product, including anomaly fields related to the changing ENSO situation during the mission. Results of merging TRMM, other passive microwave observations, and geosynchronous infrared rainfall estimates into a global, tropical 3-hour time resolution analysis will also be described.

Adler, Robert↗

Understanding the Impacts of Stellar Companions on Planet Formation and Evolution: A Survey of Stellar and Planetary Companions within 25 pc

We explore the impact of outer stellar companions on the occurrence rate of giant planets detected with radial velocities. We searched for stellar and planetary companions to a volume-limited sample of solar-type stars within 25 pc. Using adaptive optics imaging observations from the Lick 3 m and Palomar 200″ Telescopes, we characterized the multiplicity of our sample stars, down to the bottom of the main sequence. With these data, we confirm field star multiplicity statistics from previous surveys. We additionally combined three decades of radial velocity (RV) data from the California Planet Search with newly collected RV data from Keck/HIRES and the Automated Planet Finder/Levy Spectrometer to search for planetary companions in these same systems. Using an updated catalog of both stellar and planetary companions, as well as detailed injection/recovery tests to determine our sensitivity and completeness, we measured the occurrence rate of planets among the single- and multiple-star systems. We found that planets with masses in the range of 0.1–10 M {sub J} and with semimajor axes of 0.1–10 au have an occurrence rate of 0.18{sub −0.03}{sup +0.04} planets per star when they orbit single stars and an occurrence rate of 0.12 ± 0.04 planets per star when they orbit a star in a binary system. Breaking the sample down by the binary separation, we found that only one planet-hosting binary system had a binary separation <100 au, and none had a separation <50 au. These numbers yielded planet occurrence rates of 0.20{sub −0.06}{sup +0.07} planets per star for binaries with separation a {sub B} > 100 au and 0.04{sub −0.02}{sup +0.04} planets per star for binaries with separation a {sub B} < 100 au. The similarity in the planet occurrence rate around single stars and wide primaries implies that wide binary systems should actually host more planets than single-star systems, since they have more potential host stars. We estimated a system-wide planet occurrence rate of 0.3 planets per wide binary system for binaries with separations a {sub B} > 100 au. Finally, we found evidence that giant planets in binary systems have a different semimajor-axis distribution than their counterparts in single-star systems. The planets in the single-star sample had a significantly higher occurrence rate outside of 1 au than inside 1 au by nearly 4σ, in line with expectations that giant planets are most common near the snow line. However, the planets in the wide binary systems did not follow this distribution, but rather had equivalent occurrence rates interior and exterior to 1 au. This may point to binary-mediated planet migration acting on our sample, even in binaries wider than 100 au.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

The Video Guidance Sensor- A Flight Proven Technology

The Video Guidance Sensor (VGS) flew on Shuttle mission STS-95 in October of 1998 to test the VGS functional characteristics on orbit. This was the second flight of the VGS, and during these two flights, both long range and short range data were gathered under a variety of lighting conditions, orbital exposure times, and temperatures. The flight experiment sensor was designed to operate from 1.5 meter range out to 110 meter range, with a field-of-view of 16 X 21 degrees. The VGS tracked its target at a 5 Hz rate and returned 6-degree-of-freedom information on the target's position and attitude relative to the sensor. The VGS was mounted in the Shuttle cargo bay, and its target was mounted on the Spartan spacecraft being carried on this mission. The VGS is a sensor designed to allow an automated vehicle to dock with a spacecraft equipped with a passive target. The VGS is a part of an Automated Rendezvous and Capture (AR&C) system being developed and tested by NASA. The orbital testing included operations with the target on the Shuttle's Remote Manipulator System (RMS) near the start of each flight of the VGS, long-range data (on the STS-95 flight) during the Shuttle rendezvous with the Spartan two days later, and some more RMS operations later in the mission. The data returned from the orbital testing included VGS diagnostics, acquisition, and tracking data, RMS positions, hand-held laser range data, tapes of the data from the VGS video camera, and orbital positioning data from the Spartan and the Shuttle to allow correlation of the VGS data with orbital best-estimate-of-truth data. The Video Guidance Sensor performed well in all phases of the testing, and the VGS is being incorporated into the ground testing of a complete automated rendezvous and docking system. Work on the development of the next generation VGS is continuing.

Howard, Richard T.↗

Resonance Scattering of Fe XVII X-Ray and EUV Lines

Over the years a number of calculations have been carried out to derive intensities of various X-ray and EUV lines in Fe XVII to compare with observed spectra. The predicted intensities have not agreed with solar observations, particularly for the line at 15.02 Angstroms; resonance scattering has been suggested as the source for much of the disagreement. The atomic data calculated earlier used seven configurations, 2s(sup 2) 2p(sup 6),2s(sup 2) 2p(sup 5)3s, 2s(sup 2) 2p(sup 5)3p, 2s(sup 2)2p(sup 5)3d, 2s2 p(sup 6)3s, 2s2p(sup 6)3p, and 2s2p(sup 6)3d, having n=3 orbitals and the scattering calculations in the distorted wave approximation were carried out only for incident energies above the threshold of the highest fine-structure level. These calculations have now been extended to thirteen configurations by adding six more configurations having n=4 orbitals, namely 2s(sup 2) 2p(sup 5)4s, 2s(sup 2) 2p(sup 5)4p, 2s(sup 2) 2p(sup 5)4d, 2s2p(sup 6)4s, 2s2p(sup 6)4p, and 2s2p(sup 6)4d, giving rise to 73 fine structure levels. The scattering calculations are carried out below as well as above the threshold of the highest fine-structure level. The incident energies below the threshold are 55.8, 65, 70, and 76 Ry and those above are 85, 127.5, 170, 212.5, 255, 340, and 425 Ry. The collision strengths are calculated up to total angular momentum L(sup T) = 33. Level populations and intensity ratios are calculated at various electron temperatures and densities. It is not possible to predict how the ratios would change when configurations with n=5 and 6 orbitals are added but some estimates have been made for a few transitions by Liedhal, who indicates an asymptotic convergence when n=5 and 6 orbitals are added. These improved calculations of Fe XVII change the intensity ratios compared to those obtained earlier, bringing the optically thin F(15.02)/F(16.78) ratio and several other ratios closer to the observed values: However, some disagreement with the solar observations still persists, even though the agreement of the presently calculated optically thin F(15.02)/F(15.26) ratio with the experimental results of Brown et al. and Laming et al. has improved. Some of the remaining discrepancy is still thought to be the effect of opacity, which is consistent with expected physical conditions for solar sources. EUV intensity ratios are also calculated and compared with observations. Level populations and intensity ratios are calculated, as a function of column density of Fe XVII, in the slab and cylindrical geometries. As found previously, the predicted intensities for the resonance lines at 15.02 and 15.26 Angstroms exhibit initial increases in flux relative to the forbidden line at 17.10 Angstroms and the resonance line at 16.78 Angstroms as optical thickness increases. The same behavior is predicted for the lines at 12.262 and 12.122 Angstroms. Predicted intensities for some of the allowed EUV lines are also affected by opacity.

Bhatia, A. K.↗

Assessment and Control of Spacecraft Charging Risks on the International Space Station

The International Space Station (ISS) operates in the F2 region of Earth's ionosphere, orbiting at altitudes ranging from 350 to 450 km at an inclination of 51.6 degrees. The relatively dense, cool F2 ionospheric plasma suppresses surface charging processes much of the time, and the flux of relativistic electrons is low enough to preclude deep dielectric charging processes. The most important spacecraft charging processes in the ISS orbital environment are: 1) ISS electrical power system interactions with the F2 plasma, 2) magnetic induction processes resulting from flight through the geomagnetic field and, 3) charging processes that result from interaction with auroral electrons at high latitude. Recently, the continuing review and evaluation of putative ISS charging hazards required by the ISS Program Office revealed that ISS charging could produce an electrical shock hazard to the ISS crew during extravehicular activity (EVA). ISS charging risks are being evaluated in an ongoing measurement and analysis campaign. The results of ISS charging measurements are combined with a recently developed model of ISS charging (the Plasma Interaction Model) and an exhaustive analysis of historical ionospheric variability data (ISS Ionospheric Specification) to evaluate ISS charging risks using Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) methods. The PRA combines estimates of the frequency of occurrence and severity of the charging hazards with estimates of the reliability of various hazard controls systems, as required by NASA s safety and risk management programs, to enable design and selection of a hazard control approach that minimizes overall programmatic and personnel risk. The PRA provides a quantitative methodology for incorporating the results of the ISS charging measurement and analysis campaigns into the necessary hazard reports, EVA procedures, and ISS flight rules required for operating ISS in a safe and productive manner.

Koontz, Steve↗

Precipitation Analysis at Fine Time Scales using TRMM and Other Satellites: Real-time and Research Products and Applications

Quasi-global precipitation analyses at fine time scales (3-hr) are described. TRMM observations (radar and passive microwave) are used to calibrate polar-orbit microwave observations from SSM/I (and other satellites instruments, including AMSR and AMSU) and geosynchronous IR observations. The individual data sets are then merged using a priority order based on quality to form the TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (MPA). Raingauge information is used to help constrain the satellite-based estimates over land. The TRMM standard research product (Version 6 3B-42 of the TRMM products) will be available for the entire TRMM period (January 1998-present) by the end of 2004. The real-time version of this merged product has been produced over the past two years and is available on the U.S. TRMM web site (trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov) at 0.25" latitude-longitude resolution over the latitude range from 5O0N-50"S. Validation of daily totals indicates good results, with limitations noted in mid-latitude winter over land and regions of shallow, orographic precipitation. Various applications of these estimates are described, includmg: 1) detecting potential floods in near real-time; 2) analyzing Indian Ocean precipitation variations related to the initiation of El Nino; 3) determining characteristics of the African monsoon; and 4) analysis of diurnal variations.

Adler, Robert↗

The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP): Results, Status and Future

The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) is one of a number of long-term, satellite-based, global analyses routinely produced under the auspices of the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) and its Global Energy and Watercycle EXperiment (GEWEX) program. The research quality analyses are produced a few months after real-time through the efforts of scientists at various national agencies and universities in the U.S., Europe and Japan. The primary product is a monthly analysis of surface precipitation that is globally complete and spans the period 1979-present. There are also pentad analyses for the same period and a daily analysis for the 1997-present period. Although generated with somewhat different data sets and analysis schemes, the pentad and daily data sets are forced to agree with the primary monthly analysis on a grid box by grid box basis. The primary input data sets are from low-orbit passive microwave observations, geostationary infrared observations and surface raingauge information. Examples of research with the data sets are discussed, focusing on tropical (25N-25s) rainfall variations and possible long-term changes in the 28-year (1979-2006) monthly dataset. Techniques are used to discriminate among the variations due to ENSO, volcanic events and possible long-term changes for rainfall over both land and ocean. The impact of the two major volcanic eruptions over the past 25 years is estimated to be about a 5% maximum reduction in tropical rainfall during each event. Although the global change of precipitation in the data set is near zero, a small upward linear change over tropical ocean (0.06 mm/day/l0yr) and a slight downward linear change over tropical land (-0.03 mm/day/l0yr) are examined to understand the impact of the inhomogeneity in the data record and the length of the data set. These positive changes correspond to about a 5% increase (ocean) and 3% increase (ocean plus land) during this time period. Relations between variations in surface temperature and precipitation are analyzed on seasonal to inter-decadal time scales. A new, version 3 of GPCP is being planned to incorporate new satellite information (e.g., TRMM) and provide higher spatial and temporal resolution for at least part of the data record. The goals and plans for that GPCP re-processing will be outlined.

Adler, Robert F.↗

The Re-Analysis of Ozone Profile Data from a 41-Year Series of SBUV Instruments

In this study we present the validation of ozone profiles from a number of Solar Back Scattered Ultra Violet (SBUV) and SBUV/2 instruments that were recently reprocessed using an updated (Version 8.6) algorithm. The SBUV dataset provides the longest available record of global ozone profiles, spanning a 41-year period from 1970 to 2011 (except a 5-year gap in the 1970s) and includes ozone profile records obtained from the Nimbus-4 BUV and Nimbus-7 SBUV instruments, and a series of SBUV(/2) instruments launched on NOAA operational satellites (NOAA 09, 11, 14, 16, 17, 18, 19). Although modifications in instrument design were made in the evolution from the BUV instrument to the modern SBUV(/2) model, the basic principles of the measurement technique and retrieval algorithm remain the same. The long term SBUV data record allows us to create a consistent, calibrated dataset of ozone profiles that can be used for climate studies and trend analyses. In particular, we focus on estimating the various sources of error in the SBUV profile ozone retrievals using independent observations and analysis of the algorithm itself. For the first time we include in the metadata a quantitative estimate of the smoothing error, defined as the error due to profile variability that the SBUV observing system cannot inherently measure. The magnitude of the smoothing error varies with altitude, latitude, season and solar zenith angle. Between 10 and 1 hPa the smoothing errors for the SBUV monthly zonal mean retrievals are of the order of 1 %, but start to increase above and below this layer. The largest smoothing errors, as large as 15-20%, were detected in in the troposphere. The SBUV averaging kernels, provided with the ozone profiles in version 8.6, help to eliminate the smoothing effect when comparing the SBUV profiles with high vertical resolution measurements, and make it convenient to use the SBUV ozone profiles for data assimilation and model validation purposes. The smoothing error can also be minimized by combining layers of data, and we will discuss recommendations for this approach as well. The SBUV ozone profiles have been intensively validated against satellite profile measurements obtained from the Microwave Limb Sounders (MLS) (on board the UARS and AURA satellites), Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) and Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS). Also, we compare coincident and collocated SBUV ozone retrievals with observations made by ground-based instruments, such as microwave spectrometers, lidars, Umkehr instruments and balloon-borne ozonosondes. Finally, we compare the SBUV ozone profiles with output from the NASA GSFC GEOS-CCM model. In the stratosphere between 25 and 1 hPa the mean biases and standard deviations are within 5% for monthly mean ozone profiles. Above and below this layer the vertical resolution of the SBUV algorithm decreases and the effects of vertical smoothing should be taken into account. Though the SBUV algorithm has a coarser vertical resolution in the lower stratosphere and troposphere, it is capable of precisely estimating the integrated ozone column between the surface and 25 hPa. The time series of the tropospheric - lower stratospheric ozone column derived from SBUV agrees within 5% with the corresponding values observed by an ensemble of ozone sonde stations in North Hemisphere. Drift of the ozone time series obtained from each SBUV(/2) instrument relative to ground based and satellite measurements are evaluated and some features of individual SBUV(l2) instruments are discussed. In addition to evaluating individual instruments against independent observations, we also focus on the instrument to instrument consistency in the series. Overall, Version 8.6 ozone profiles obtained from two different SBUV(l2) instruments compare within a couple of percent during overlap periods and are consistently varying in time, with some exceptions. Some of the noted discrepancies might bssociated with ozone diurnal variations, since the difference in the local time of the observations for a pair of SBUV(l2) instruments could be several hours. Other issues include the potential short-term drift in measurements as the instrument orbit drifts, and measurements are obtained at high solar zenith angles (>85 ). Based on the results of the validation, a consistent, calibrated dataset of SBUV ozone profiles has been created based on internal calibration only.

Kramarova, Natalya↗

Robust Exploration and Commercial Missions to the Moon Using LANTR Propulsion and In-Situ Propellants Derived from Lunar Polar Ice (LPI) Deposits

The nuclear thermal rocket (NTR) has frequently been identified as a key space asset required for the human exploration of Mars. This proven technology can also provide the affordable access through cislunar space necessary for commercial development and sustained human presence on the Moon. It is a demonstrated technology capable of generating both high thrust and high specific impulse (Isp 900 s) twice that of todays best chemical rockets. Nuclear lunar transfer vehicles consisting of a propulsion stage using three approx.16.5 klbf "Small Nuclear Rocket Engines (SNREs)", an in-line propellant tank, plus the payload can enable a variety of reusable lunar missions. These include cargo delivery and crewed lunar landing missions. Even weeklong "tourism" missions carrying passengers into lunar orbit for a day of sightseeing and picture taking are possible. The NTR can play an important role in the next phase of lunar exploration and development by providing a robust in-space lunar transportation system (LTS) that can allow initial outposts to evolve into settlements supported by a variety of commercial activities such as in-situ propellant production used to supply strategically located propellant depots and transportation nodes. The processing of LPI deposits (estimated to be approx. 2 billion metric tons) for propellant production - specifically liquid oxygen (LO2) and hydrogen (LH2) can significantly reduce the launch mass requirements from Earth and can enable reusable, surface-based lunar landing vehicles (LLVs) using LO2/LH2 chemical rocket engines. Afterwards, LO2/LH2 propellant depots can be established in lunar polar and equatorial orbits to supply the LTS. At this point a modified version of the conventional NTR called the LO2-augmented NTR, or LANTR would be introduced into the LTS allowing bipropellant operation and leveraging the mission benefits of refueling with lunar-derived propellants (LDPs) for Earth return. The bipropellant LANTR engine utilizes the large divergent section of its nozzle as an afterburner into which oxygen is injected and supersonically combusted with nuclear preheated hydrogen emerging from the engines choked sonic throat essentially scramjet propulsion in reverse. By varying the oxygen-to-hydrogen mixture ratio, LANTR engines can operate over a range of thrust and Isp values while the reactor core power level remains relatively constant. A LANTR-based LTS offers unique mission capabilities including short transit time crewed cargo transports. Even a commuter shuttle service may be possible allowing one-way trip times to and from the Moon on the order of 36 hours or less. If only 1 of the postulated water ice trapped in deep shadowed craters at the lunar poles were available for use in lunar orbit, such a supply could support daily commuter flights to the Moon for many thousands of years! The proposed paper outlines an evolutionary mission architecture and examines a variety of mission types and transfer vehicle designs, along with the increasing demands on LDP production as mission complexity and delta V requirements increase. A comparison of vehicle features and engine operating characteristics are also provided together with a discussion of the propellant production and mining requirements, and issues, associated with using LPI as the source material.

Nuclear Thermal Propulsion↗

A CAREFULLY CHARACTERIZED AND TRACKED TRANS-NEPTUNIAN SURVEY: THE SIZE DISTRIBUTION OF THE PLUTINOS AND THE NUMBER OF NEPTUNIAN TROJANS

The trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) preserve evidence of planet building processes in their orbital and size distributions. While all populations show steep size distributions for large objects, a relative deficit of Neptunian trojans and scattering objects with diameters of D < 100 km has been detected. We investigated this deficit with a 32 square degree survey, in which we detected 77 TNOs that are brighter than a limiting r-band magnitude of 24.6. Our plutino sample (18 objects in 3:2 mean-motion resonance with Neptune) shows a deficit of D < 100 km objects, rejecting a single power-law size distribution at >99% confidence. Combining our survey with the Canada–France Ecliptic Plane Survey, we perform a detailed analysis of the allowable parameters for the plutino size distribution, including knees and divots. We surmise the existence of 9000 ± 3000 plutinos with an absolute magnitude of H {sub r} ≤ 8.66 and 37000{sub −10000}{sup +12000} with H {sub r} ≤ 10.0 (95% confidence). Our survey also discovered one temporary Uranian trojan, one temporary Neptunian trojan, and one stable Neptunian trojan, for which we estimate populations of 110{sub −100}{sup +500}, 210{sub −200}{sup +900}, and 150{sub −140}{sup +600} with H {sub r} ≤ 10.0, respectively. All three populations are thus less numerous than the main belt asteroids (592 asteroids with H {sub r} ≤ 10.0). With such population sizes, the temporary Neptunian trojans cannot be previously stable trojans diffusing out of the resonance now; they must be recently captured Centaurs or scattering objects. As the bias against the detection of objects grows with larger semimajor axes, our discovery of three 3:1 resonators and one 4:1 resonator adds to the growing evidence that the high-order resonances are far more populated than is typically predicted.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Competing antiferromagnetic-ferromagnetic states in a d 7 Kitaev honeycomb magnet

The Kitaev model is a rare example of an analytically solvable and physically instantiable Hamiltonian yielding a topological quantum spin liquid ground state. Here we report signatures of Kitaev spin liquid physics in the honeycomb magnet Li 3 Co 2 SbO 6 , built of high-spin d 7 (Co 2+ ) ions, in contrast to the more typical low-spin d 5 electron configurations in the presence of large spin-orbit coupling. Neutron powder diffraction measurements, heat capacity, and magnetization studies support the development of a long-range antiferromagnetic order space group of C C 2/m, below T N = 11K at μ 0 H = 0T. The magnetic entropy recovered between T = 2 and 50 K is estimated to be 0.6Rln2, in good agreement with the value expected for systems close to a Kitaev quantum spin liquid state. The temperature-dependent magnetic order parameter demonstrates a β value of 0.19(3), consistent with XY anisotropy and in-plane ordering, with Ising-like interactions between layers. Further, we observe a spin-flop-driven crossover to ferromagnetic order with space group of C2/m under an applied magnetic field of μ 0 H ≈ 0.7T at T = 2K. Magnetic structure analysis demonstrates these magnetic states are competing at finite applied magnetic fields even below the spin-flop transition. Both the d 7 compass model, a quantitative comparison of the specific heat of Li 3 Co 2 SbO 6 , and related honeycomb cobaltates to the anisotropic Kitaev model further support proximity to a Kitaev spin liquid state. Furthermore, this material demonstrates the rich playground of high-spin d 7 systems for spin liquid candidates and complements known d 5 Ir- and Ru-based materials.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Velocity distributions among colliding asteroids

The probability distribution for impact velocities between two given asteroids is wide, non-Gaussian, and often contains spikes according to our new method of analysis in which each possible orbital geometry for collision is weighted according to its probability. An average value would give a good representation only if the distribution were smooth and narrow. Therefore, the complete velocity distribution we obtain for various asteroid populations differs significantly from published histograms of average velocities. For all pairs among the 682 asteroids in the main-belt with D greater than 50 km, we find that our computed velocity distribution is much wider than previously computed histograms of average velocities. In this case, the most probable impact velocity is approximately 4.4 km/sec, compared with the mean impact velocity of 5.3 km/sec. For cases of a single asteroid (e.g., Gaspra or Ida) relative to an impacting population, the distribution we find yields lower velocities than previously reported by others. The width of these velocity distributions implies that mean impact velocities must be used with caution when calculating asteroid collisional lifetimes or crater-size distributions. Since the most probable impact velocities are lower than the mean, disruption events may occur less frequently than previously estimated. However, this disruption rate may be balanced somewhat by an apparent increase in the frequency of high-velocity impacts between asteroids. These results have implications for issues such as asteroidal disruption rates, the amount/type of impact ejecta available for meteoritical delivery to the Earth, and the geology and evolution of specific asteroids like Gaspra.

Bottke, William F., Jr.↗

Ion Transmission to the Focal Plane of the Chandra X-Ray Observatory

The severe degradation in spectrometric performance observed by the AXAF CCD Imaging Spectrometer (ACIS) instrument on-board the Chandra X-ray Observatory (CXO) was associated with a sharp increase in charge transfer inefficiency combined with relatively constant dark current. It was also observed that damage occurred only during passage through the earth's radiation belts, and only when ACIS remained in the focal plane during the passage. Subsequent measurements and analyses support the conjecture that the damaging radiation entered through the Observatory's High-Resolution Mirror Assembly (HRMA) aperture. A mechanism whereby low energy magnetospheric protons and/or heavier ions are scattered through the HRMA and reach the focal plane with just enough energy to stop in the CCD's charge transfer region currently provides a reasonably consistent explanation of all observed phenomena. In this paper, we will describe analyses which support this conclusion. Simulations using standard ion transmission codes were used to generate a bi-directional response function (BDRF) for the mirror surfaces and transmission through the various path elements. The BDRF was convolved with the geometry via ray-trace. Damage estimates using measured proton fluence and ground measurements of ACIS- type CCD damage vs. proton energy will be presented and compared with observed on- orbit damage.

Kolodziejczak, J. J.↗