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Results for “Reliability Prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 811 records · Page 45
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

BETO 2021 Peer Review - FCIC Task 6: High Temperature Conversion

The impacts of feedstock variability on pyrolysis processes are significant but poorly defined. Current engineering designs are based on empirical guidelines, useful only over a narrow range of feedstock properties. The objectives of this project are to (1) Develop science-based knowledge of how feedstock attributes and operational parameters impact pyrolysis process reliability and product quality; and (2) Build an experimental and computational toolset that predicts these outcomes, enabling processes to optimize reliability and product quality. Biomass is a complex feedstock. Controlling for and testing the effects of individual attributes is very challenging. This project couples multiscale experimentation and modeling to accurately capture the fundamental physics and chemistry of biomass flow and conversion behavior in feeding and pyrolysis reactor operations. Our focus is on pine residue attributes – anatomical fraction (bark, needles, wood), particle morphology (size/shape distribution, density, porosity), and chemical composition (extractives, biopolymers, alkali metals) – that impact product quality for downstream catalytic upgrading. Because detailed pyrolysis product characterization is limited, cutting-edge analytical techniques are being developed to reveal impactful product attributes. The tools and knowledge developed here will enable integrated pyrolysis-based processes that are more robust, flexible, and market-responsive with respect to feedstock variability.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dynamics in a stellar convective layer and at its boundary: Comparison of five 3D hydrodynamics codes

Our ability to predict the structure and evolution of stars is in part limited by complex, 3D hydrodynamic processes such as convective boundary mixing. Hydrodynamic simulations help us understand the dynamics of stellar convection and convective boundaries. However, the codes used to compute such simulations are usually tested on extremely simple problems and the reliability and reproducibility of their predictions for turbulent flows is unclear. We define a test problem involving turbulent convection in a plane-parallel box, which leads to mass entrainment from, and internal-wave generation in, a stably stratified layer. We compare the outputs from the codes FLASH, MUSIC, PPMSTAR, PROMPI, and SLH, which have been widely employed to study hydrodynamic problems in stellar interiors. The convection is dominated by the largest scales that fit into the simulation box. All time-averaged profiles of velocity components, fluctuation amplitudes, and fluxes of enthalpy and kinetic energy are within ≲3σ of the mean of all simulations on a given grid (128 3 and 256 3 grid cells), where σ describes the statistical variation due to the flow’s time dependence. They also agree well with a 512 3 reference run. The 128 3 and 256 3 simulations agree within 9% and 4%, respectively, on the total mass entrained into the convective layer. The entrainment rate appears to be set by the amount of energy that can be converted to work in our setup and details of the small-scale flows in the boundary layer seem to be largely irrelevant. Our results lend credence to hydrodynamic simulations of flows in stellar interiors. We provide in electronic form all outputs of our simulations as well as all information needed to reproduce or extend our study.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Prediction of the thickness of the compensator filter in radiation therapy using computational intelligence

In this study, artificial neural networks (ANNs) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) are investigated to predict the thickness of the compensator filter in radiation therapy. In the proposed models, the input parameters are field size (S), off-axis distance, and relative dose (D/D{sub 0}), and the output is the thickness of the compensator. The obtained results show that the proposed ANN and ANFIS models are useful, reliable, and cheap tools to predict the thickness of the compensator filter in intensity-modulated radiation therapy.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2022

The WRF-Solar Ensemble Prediction System: Development, Test, and Validation

Providing reliable probabilistic solar radiation information is needed to improve management of the uncertainty and variability of solar generation. Thus, guidance on how to develop skillful and accurate ensemble forecasts is essential and it will ultimately contribute to integration of high amounts of solar energy on the grid. A team from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and the National Center for Atmospheric Research had been collaborating to develop the WRF-Solar ensemble prediction system (WRF-Solar EPS) in the past three years to produce probabilistic solar irradiance forecasts and better predict solar energy by quantifying forecast uncertainty. The WRF-Solar EPS basically generates ensemble members for solar irradiance based on stochastic perturbations to provide intraday and day-ahead probabilistic forecasts. This study will present main research steps in developing the WRF-Solar EPS including: (a) tangent linear analysis for identifying key input variables of six WRF-Solar modules significantly related to predicting of cloud and solar irradiance, (b) combining stochastic perturbation technique with the WRF-Solar model, and (c) ensemble calibration method to decrease error and uncertainty of ensemble-based solar forecasts. The capability of WRF-Solar EPS is now updated to the most recent version of standard WRF model. This presentation will summarize comprehensive results from the evaluation of forecasts against the National Solar Radiation Data Base as well as ground-measured observations. Moreover, we will introduce the user's guide for WRF-Solar EPS (e.g., parameters to configure stochastic perturbations) and future extension of this research.

day-ahead forecast↗
DOE OSTI2020

Quantifying uncertainties on fission fragment mass yields with mixture density networks

Probabilistic machine learning techniques can learn both complex relations between input features and output quantities of interest as well as take into account stochasticity or uncertainty within a data set. In this initial work, we explore the use of one such probabilistic network, the mixture density network (MDN), to reproduce fission yields and their uncertainties. In this paper, we study mass yields for the spontaneous fission of 252 Cf, exploring the number of training samples needed for converged predictions, how different levels of uncertainty propagate from the training set to the MDN predictions, and how well physical constraints of the yields—such as normalization and symmetry—are upheld by the algorithm. Finally, we test the ability of the MDN to interpolate between and extrapolate beyond samples in the training set using energy-dependent mass yields for the neutron-induced fission on 235 U. The MDN provides a reliable way to include and predict uncertainties and is a promising path forward for supplementing sparse sets of nuclear data.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Moving Toward Quantifying Reliability - The Next Step in a Rapidly Maturing PV Industry: Preprint

Some may say that PV modules are moving toward being a simple commodity, but most major PV customers ask: 'How can I minimize chances of a module recall?' Or, 'How can I quantify the added value of a 'premium' module?' Or, 'How can I assess the value of an old PV system that I'm thinking of purchasing?' These are all questions that PVQAT (the International PV Quality Assurance Task Force) and partner organizations are working to answer. Defining standard methods for ensuring minimal acceptable quality of PV modules, differentiating modules that provide added value in the toughest of environments, and creating a process (e.g. through IECRE [1]) that can follow a PV system from design through installation and operation are tough tasks, but having standard approaches for these will increase confidence, reduce costs, and be a critical foundation of a mature PV industry. This paper summarizes current needs for new tests, some challenges for defining those tests, and some of the key efforts toward development of international standards, emphasizing that meaningful quantification of reliability (as in defining a service life prediction) must be done in the context of a specific product with design parameters defined through a quality management system.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2015

Enhancing ultra-high CPV passive cooling using least-material finned heat sinks

Ultra-high concentrating photovoltaic (CPV) systems aim to increase the cost-competiveness of CPV by increasing the concentrations over 2000 suns. In this work, the design of a heat sink for ultra-high concentrating photovoltaic (CPV) applications is presented. For the first time, the least-material approach, widely used in electronics to maximize the thermal dissipation while minimizing the weight of the heat sink, has been applied in CPV. This method has the potential to further decrease the cost of this technology and to keep the multijunction cell within the operative temperature range. The designing procedure is described in the paper and the results of a thermal simulation are shown to prove the reliability of the solution. A prediction of the costs is also reported: a cost of 0.151$/W{sub p} is expected for a passive least-material heat sink developed for 4000x applications.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2016

Open EFTs, IR effects & late-time resummations: systematic corrections in stochastic inflation

Though simple inflationary models describe the CMB well, their corrections are often plagued by infrared effects that obstruct a reliable calculation of late-time behaviour. Here we adapt to cosmology tools designed to address similar issues in other physical systems with the goal of making reliable late-time inflationary predictions. The main such tool is Open EFTs which reduce in the inflationary case to Stochastic Inflation plus calculable corrections. We apply this to a simple inflationary model that is complicated enough to have dangerous IR behaviour yet simple enough to allow the inference of late-time behaviour. We find corrections to standard Stochastic Inflationary predictions for the noise and drift, and we find these corrections ensure the IR finiteness of both these quantities. The late-time probability distribution, P(Φ), for super-Hubble field fluctuations are obtained as functions of the noise and drift and so these too are IR finite. We compare our results to other methods (such as large-N models) and find they agree when these models are reliable. In all cases we can explore in detail we find IR secular effects describe the slow accumulation of small perturbations to give a big effect: a significant distortion of the late-time probability distribution for the field. But the energy density associated with this is only of order H 4 at late times and so does not generate a dramatic gravitational back-reaction.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Atomistic measurement and modeling of intrinsic fracture toughness of two-dimensional materials

Quantifying the intrinsic mechanical properties of two-dimensional (2D) materials is essential to predict the long-term reliability of materials and systems in emerging applications ranging from energy to health to next-generation sensors and electronics. Currently, measurements of fracture toughness and identification of associated atomistic mechanisms remain challenging. Herein, we report an integrated experimental–computational framework in which in-situ high-resolution transmission electron microscopy (HRTEM) measurements of the intrinsic fracture energy of monolayer MoS 2 and MoSe 2 are in good agreement with atomistic model predictions based on an accurately parameterized interatomic potential. Changes in crystalline structures at the crack tip and crack edges, as observed in in-situ HRTEM crack extension tests, are properly predicted. Such a good agreement is the result of including large deformation pathways and phase transitions in the parameterization of the inter-atomic potential. The established framework emerges as a robust approach to determine the predictive capabilities of molecular dynamics models employed in the screening of 2D materials, in the spirit of the materials genome initiative. Moreover, it enables device-level predictions with superior accuracy (e.g., fatigue lifetime predictions of electro- and opto-electronic nanodevices).

Zhang, Xu↗
DOE OSTI2018

Less is more: Sampling chemical space with active learning

We present the development of accurate and transferable machine learning (ML) potentials for predicting molecular energetics is a challenging task. The process of data generation to train such ML potentials is a task neither well understood nor researched in detail. In this work, we present a fully automated approach for the generation of datasets with the intent of training universal ML potentials. It is based on the concept of active learning (AL) via Query by Committee (QBC), which uses the disagreement between an ensemble of ML potentials to infer the reliability of the ensemble’s prediction. QBC allows the presented AL algorithm to automatically sample regions of chemical space where the ML potential fails to accurately predict the potential energy. AL improves the overall fitness of ANAKIN-ME (ANI) deep learning potentials in rigorous test cases by mitigating human biases in deciding what new training data to use. AL also reduces the training set size to a fraction of the data required when using naive random sampling techniques. To provide validation of our AL approach, we develop the COmprehensive Machine-learning Potential (COMP6) benchmark (publicly available on GitHub) which contains a diverse set of organic molecules. Active learning-based ANI potentials outperform the original random sampled ANI-1 potential with only 10% of the data, while the final active learning-based model vastly outperforms ANI-1 on the COMP6 benchmark after training to only 25% of the data. Finally, we show that our proposed AL technique develops a universal ANI potential (ANI-1x) that provides accurate energy and force predictions on the entire COMP6 benchmark. Finally, this universal ML potential achieves a level of accuracy on par with the best ML potentials for single molecules or materials, while remaining applicable to the general class of organic molecules composed of the elements CHNO.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Beyond the proton drip line: Bayesian analysis of proton-emitting nuclei

The limits of the nuclear landscape are determined by nuclear binding energies. Beyond the proton drip lines, where the separation energy becomes negative, there is not enough binding energy to prevent protons from escaping the nucleus. Predicting properties of unstable nuclear states in the vast territory of proton emitters poses an appreciable challenge for nuclear theory as it often involves far extrapolations. In addition, significant discrepancies between nuclear models in the proton-rich territory call for quantified predictions. With the help of Bayesian methodology, we mix a family of nuclear mass models corrected with statistical emulators trained on the experimental mass measurements, in the proton-rich region of the nuclear chart. Separation energies were computed within nuclear density functional theory using several Skyrme and Gogny energy density functionals. We also considered mass predictions based on two models used in astrophysical studies. Quantified predictions were obtained for each model using Bayesian Gaussian processes trained on separation-energy residuals and combined via Bayesian model averaging. Here, we obtained a good agreement between averaged predictions of statistically corrected models and experiment. In particular, we quantified model results for one- and two-proton separation energies and derived probabilities of proton emission. This information enabled us to produce a quantified landscape of proton-rich nuclei. The most promising candidates for two-proton decay studies have been identified. Finally, the methodology used in this work has broad applications to model-based extrapolations of various nuclear observables. It also provides a reliable uncertainty quantification of theoretical predictions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Numerical study for prediction of optimum operational parameters in laser welding of NiTi alloy

Laser welding of NiTi alloy is a challenging process since it strongly affects the functionality of the material in the heat affected and fusion zones. Furthermore, the inherent thermal process can remarkably change the transformation temperature of NiTi alloy in the welding zone because of variation in the material composition. Accordingly, the laser parameters such as laser power and velocity effectively determine the quality of the welded component. The functional and mechanical behavior of the resulting welded NiTi parts can also be effectively improved by controlling laser parameters, and consequently, improve the weldability quality. The purpose of the present study was to establish a reliable finite element model to predict the thermal behavior induced by the laser welding process. Here, a numerical model was employed to estimate the optimum laser parameters, which can reduce the heat affected and the fusion regions and thus result in a better weld. The results of the finite element model show good accuracy compared to the experimental results including the transient temperature and the dimension of the heat affected and fusion zones. In addition, an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) approach was applied, as a predictable tool, to perform a nonlinear mapping between inputs and outputs of the welding process in order to find the optimum laser parameters.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predictive Analytics for Hydropower Fleet Intelligence

A primary challenge in hydropower industry is the ability to maintain cost-competitiveness, reliability, and security of hydropower assets through evolving power system contexts and aging of the fleet. Maintaining cost-effective and reliable operations under these conditions is expected to require new modernization and maintenance paradigms for changing contexts. Changes in existing practices for O&M will require an understanding of the current state and health of hydropower assets, and the impact of changing paradigms on asset health and reliability. The Hydropower Fleet Intelligence project is developing and evaluating standardized methodologies and analysis tools for data-driven asset reliability and management technologies for hydropower, leading to eventual predictive maintenance planning, repair/replacement decision making, and asset-reliability and cost-optimized operations. A key question is the feasibility of using existing data sets at hydropower facilities to perform assessments of asset reliability. This document uses data from hydropower facilities to assess the potential for using available analytics methods for asset reliability estimates. In addition to reliability assessments, the feasibility of using existing analytics techniques for several other potential applications is discussed. Finally, a case study that a data-driven model is trained to learn nominal operations via vibration data from an asset of a certain plant, and then utilized to identify anomalies on a similar asset from a different plant, highlighting the generic use of proposed Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) approaches.

Yucesan, Yigit↗
DOE OSTI2020

Method for accurately predicting solvation structure

Accurately predicting the molecular structure of solutions is a fundamental scientific challenge. Using quantum mechanical density functional theory (DFT) to make these predictions is hindered by significant variation depending on which DFT functional is used. Here, we present a simple metric that can determine the reliability of a DFT functional for predicting solvation structure. We then show that including a simple interaction term to correct this metric leads to quantitative agreement with experimental measurements of liquid structure. We demonstrate the utility of this method by using it to accurately describe the hydration structure around the Na+ a

basis sets, molecular structure, cluster chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2017

Understanding the Reliability of Solder Joints Used in Advanced Structural and Electronics Applications: Part 2 - Reliability Performance.

Whether structural or electronic, all solder joints must provide the necessary level of reliability for the application. The Part 1 report examined the effects of filler metal properties and the soldering process on joint reliability. Filler metal solderability and mechanical properties, as well as the extents of base material dissolution and interface reaction that occur during the soldering process, were shown to affect reliability performance. The continuation of this discussion is presented in this Part 2 report, which highlights those factors that directly affect solder joint reliability. There is the growth of an intermetallic compound (IMC) reaction layer at the solder/base material interface by means of solid-state diffusion processes. In terms of mechanical response by the solder joint, fatigue remains as the foremost concern for long-term performance. Thermal mechanical fatigue (TMF), a form of low-cycle fatigue (LCF), occurs when temperature cycling is combined with mismatched values of the coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) between materials comprising the solder joint “system.” Vibration environments give rise to high-cycle fatigue (HCF) degradation. Although accelerated aging studies provide valuable empirical data, too many variants of filler metals, base materials, joint geometries, and service environments are forcing design engineers to embrace computational modeling to predict the long-term reliability of solder joints.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Machine Learning Approach for Hourly Traffic Prediction Used in EV-Charging Sites

Reliable forecasting of hourly traffic volumes on highways is critical for planning and operating electric-vehicle charging infrastructure without overloading the grid. In this work, we develop and evaluate a station-specific machine-learning approach based on NeuralProphet, enhanced with conditional seasonality to better distinguish weekday, weekend, and holiday patterns. For each station, the model automatically retrieves the same calendar day from the prior years as an AR-Net initialization, fits trend and Fourier-based seasonality components, and then applies short-term auto-regressive corrections. We train and test on 2021 and 2022 TMAS data, respectively, and validate performance over the whole year. We chose to demonstrate how the model performs on a typical weekday (3/15/2022), weekend (3/27/2022), and a special holiday (12/25/2022). Our results yield MAPE of 7.4%, 23.6%, and 32.0%, respectively. Over the entire year 2022, the overall MAPE was 17%. This demonstrates that station-specific models with conditional seasonality can achieve accurate, scalable hourly forecasts for EV-charging load planning.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2020

A low-complexity non-intrusive approach to predict the energy demand of buildings over short-term horizons

Reliable, non-intrusive, short-term (of up to 12 hours ahead) prediction of a building's energy demand is a critical component of intelligent energy management applications. A number of such approaches have been proposed over time, utilizing various statistical and, more recently, machine learning techniques, such as decision trees, neural networks and support vector machines. Importantly, all of these works barely outperform simple seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average models, while their complexity is significantly higher. Here, we propose a novel low-complexity non-intrusive approach that improves the predictive accuracy of the state-of-the-art by up to ~10%. The backbone of our approach is a K-nearest neighbours search method, that exploits the demand pattern of the most similar historical days, and incorporates appropriate time-series pre-processing and easing. In the context of this work, we evaluate our approach against state-of-the-art methods and provide insights on their performance.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗