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DOE OSTI2023

Federal Automotive Statistical Tool: Federal Vehicle Fleet Reporting Update (Combined FedFleet/FEVAR/INTERFUEL Meeting, November 2023) [Slides]

This presentation presents an overview of coming changes to how federal agencies with motor vehicles will submit required information about the electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) inventory and planned deployments through the Federal Automotive Statistical Tool (FAST), as well as updates on fleet reporting in general. This presentation is intended for delivery via WebEx/GoToMeeting at the November 2023 meeting of the DOE/GSA jointly-organized combined meeting of the Federal Electric Vehicle Agency Round-table (FEVAR), FedFleet, and INTERFUEL working groups. FAST is a web-based information management tool developed and maintained by Idaho National Laboratory and funded by GSA's Office of Government-wide Policy and DOE's Federal Energy Management Program.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Federal Automotive Statistical Tool: Updates to EVSE Reporting (Federal Electric Vehicle Agency Round-table, October 2023) [Slides]

This presentation presents an overview of coming changes to how federal agencies with motor vehicles will submit required information about the electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) inventory and planned deployments through the Federal Automotive Statistical Tool (FAST). This presentation is intended for delivery via WebEx/GoToMeeting at the October 2023 meeting of the DOE-organized Federal Electric Vehicle Agency Round-table (FEVAR). FAST is a web-based information management tool developed and maintained by Idaho National Laboratory and funded by GSA's Office of Government-wide Policy and DOE's Federal Energy Management Program.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Federal Automotive Statistical Tool: FY 2022 Federal Fleet Trends and Data Quality [Slides]

This presentation presents a brief overview of the collection of information about the US government's fleet of motor vehicles using the Federal Automotive Statistical Tool (FAST), discusses the makeup and operation of the vehicle fleet during FY 2022 and discusses quality of the submitted data. FAST is a web-based information system sponsored by GSA's Office of Government-wide Policy and DOE's Federal Energy Management Program to collect information about the US federal government's fleet of motor vehicles; FAST is developed, maintained, and supported by DOE's Idaho National Laboratory (INL).

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Statistical Homogenization of Elastic and Fracture Properties of a Sample Selective Laser Melting Material

Selective laser melting (SLM) is an additive manufacturing technique commonly used in the rapid prototyping of components. The complexity of the SLM microstructure poses a unique challenge to deriving effective mechanical properties at different length scales. Representative volume elements (RVEs) are often used to homogenize the material properties of composites. Instead of RVEs, we use statistical volume elements (SVEs) to homogenize the elastic and fracture properties of the material. This relates the inherent variation of a material’s microstructure to the variation in its mechanical properties at different observation scales. The convergence to the RVE limit is examined from two perspectives: the stability of the mean value as the SVE size increases for the mean-based approach, and the tendency of the normalized variation in homogenized properties to zero as the SVE size increases for the variation-based approach. Fracture properties tend to make the RVE limit slower than do elastic properties from both perspectives. There are also differences between vertical (normal to printing plane) and horizontal (in-plane) properties. While the elastic properties tend to make the RVE limit faster for the horizontal direction, i.e., having a smaller variation and more stable mean value, the fracture properties exhibit the opposite effect. We attributed these differences to the geometry of the melt pools.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Classification of Photovoltaic Failures with Hidden Markov Modeling, an Unsupervised Statistical Approach

Failure detection methods are of significant interest for photovoltaic (PV) site operators to help reduce gaps between expected and observed energy generation. Current approaches for field-based fault detection, however, rely on multiple data inputs and can suffer from interpretability issues. In contrast, this work offers an unsupervised statistical approach that leverages hidden Markov models (HMM) to identify failures occurring at PV sites. Using performance index data from 104 sites across the United States, individual PV-HMM models are trained and evaluated for failure detection and transition probabilities. This analysis indicates that the trained PV-HMM models have the highest probability of remaining in their current state (87.1% to 93.5%), whereas the transition probability from normal to failure (6.5%) is lower than the transition from failure to normal (12.9%) states. A comparison of these patterns using both threshold levels and operations and maintenance (O&M) tickets indicate high precision rates of PV-HMMs (median = 82.4%) across all of the sites. Although additional work is needed to assess sensitivities, the PV-HMM methodology demonstrates significant potential for real-time failure detection as well as extensions into predictive maintenance capabilities for PV.

classification↗

DOE OSTI2020

Statistical Characterization of Hot Jupiter Atmospheres Using Spitzer’s Secondary Eclipses

We report 78 secondary eclipse depths for a sample of 36 transiting hot Jupiters observed at 3.6 and 4.5 μm using the Spitzer Space Telescope. Our eclipse results for 27 of these planets are new, and include highly irradiated worlds such as KELT-7b, WASP-87b, WASP-76b, and WASP-64b, and important targets for James Webb Space Telescope such as WASP-62b. We find that WASP-62b has a slightly eccentric orbit (ecos ω=0.00614±0.00064), and we confirm the eccentricity of HAT-P-13b and WASP-14b. The remainder are individually consistent with circular orbits, but we find statistical evidence for eccentricity increasing with orbital period in our range from 1 to 5 days. Our day-side brightness temperatures for the planets yield information on albedo and heat redistribution, following Cowan & Agol (2011). Planets having maximum day-side temperatures exceeding ~2200 K are consistent with having zero albedo and a distribution of stellar irradiance uniformly over the day-side hemisphere. Our most intriguing result is that we detect a systematic difference between the emergent spectra of these hot Jupiters as compared to blackbodies. The ratio of observed brightness temperatures, Tb(4.5)/Tb(3.6), increases with equilibrium temperature by 100 ± 24 parts-per-million per Kelvin, over the entire temperature range in our sample (800–2500 K). No existing model predicts this trend over such a large range of temperature. We suggest that this may be due to a structural difference in the atmospheric temperature profiles of real planetary atmospheres as compared to models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Statistics of Extended Debris Disks Measured with Gaia and Planck

Thermal emission from debris disks around stars has been measured using targeted and resolved observations. We present an alternative likelihood-based approach in which temperature maps from the Planck cosmic microwave background (CMB) survey at 857 and 545 GHz are analyzed in conjunction with stellar positions from Gaia to estimate the fraction of stars hosting disks and the thermal emission from the disks. The debris disks are not resolved (or even necessarily detected individually), but their statistical properties and the correlations with stellar properties are measured for several thousand stars. We compare our findings with higher sensitivity surveys of smaller samples of stars. For dimmer stars, in particular K and M dwarfs, we find that about 10% of stars within 80 pc have emission consistent with debris disks. We also report on 80 candidate disks, the majority of which are not previously identified. We have previously constrained the properties of Exo-Oort clouds using Planck data—with future CMB surveys, both components can be measured for different stellar types, providing a new avenue to study the outer parts of planetary systems.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Statistics of Wide Pre-main-sequence Binaries in the Orion OB1 Association

Statistics of low-mass pre-main-sequence binaries in the Orion OB1 association with separations ranging from 0."6 to 20" (220 to 7400 au at 370 pc) are studied using images from the VISTA Orion mini survey and astrometry from Gaia. The input sample based on the CVSO catalog contains 1137 stars of K and M spectral types (masses between 0.3 and 0.9 M ⊙ ), 1021 of which are considered to be association members. There are 135 physical binary companions to these stars with mass ratios above ~0.13. The average companion fraction is 0.09 ± 0.01 over 1.2 decades in separation, slightly less than, but still consistent with, the field. We found a difference between the Ori OB1a and OB1b groups, the latter being richer in binaries by a factor of 1.6 ± 0.3. No overall dependence of the wide-binary frequency on the observed underlying stellar density is found, although in the Ori OB1a off-cloud population, these binaries seem to avoid dense clusters. The multiplicity rates in Ori OB1 and in sparse regions like Taurus differ significantly, hinting that binaries in the field may originate from a mixture of diverse populations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Gravitational Microlensing Event Statistics for the Zwicky Transient Facility

Microlensing surveys have discovered thousands of events, with almost all events discovered within the Galactic bulge or toward the Magellanic Clouds. The Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF), while not designed to be a microlensing campaign, is an optical time-domain survey that observes the entire northern sky, including the Galactic plane, every few nights. The ZTF observes ~10 9 stars in the g and r bands and can significantly contribute to the observed microlensing population. In this paper, we predict that the ZTF will observe ~1100 microlensing events in 3 yr of observing within 10° latitude of the Galactic plane, with ~500 events in the outer Galaxy (ℓ ≥ 10°). This yield increases to ~1400 (~800) events by combining every three ZTF exposures, ~1800 (~900) events if the ZTF observes for a total of 5 yr, and ~2400 (~1300) events for a 5 yr survey with postprocessing image stacking. Using the microlensing modeling software PopSyCLE, we compare the microlensing populations in the Galactic bulge and the outer Galaxy. We also present an analysis of the microlensing event ZTF18abhxjmj to demonstrate how to leverage these population statistics in event modeling. The ZTF will constrain Galactic structure, stellar populations, and primordial black holes through photometric microlensing.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Statistical Treatise on Critical Biodiesel (B100) Quality Properties in the United States from 2004-2022

The quality of neat biodiesel (B100) is critical for ensuring biodiesel blends used in diesel-powered vehicles do not adversely impact engine performance. In the United States, B100 is required to meet ASTM International's purity and fuel property requirements in D6751, "Standard Specification for Biodiesel Fuel Blend Stock (B100) for Middle Distillate Fuels." Here we review the development of this standard for the different grades of B100. The BQ-9000 program, which currently covers over 90% of U.S. and Canadian production volumes, is also described. Engine and original equipment manufacturers have expressed a desire for credible, third-party data on values of various ASTM B100 properties in the commercial market to inform their efforts to address future emissions and durability requirements. To address this need, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory published data from analysis and testing of monthly samples from BQ-9000 producers from calendar years 2017-2022, resulting in 300-500 data points (i.e., individual fuel samples) per year. These data and a statistical evaluation of properties including the average, mean, standard deviation, and 95th or 5th percentile are presented. The results show very consistent and high-quality B100 produced in this time frame. Additionally, we review the results of earlier quality surveys conducted in the United States between 2004 and 2011, revealing how quality has changed over time in response to ASTM standard revisions, as well as the significant overall improvement in quality for modern biodiesel production.

ASTM standard↗

NASA NTRS1962

A STATISTICAL OPTIMIZING NAVIGATION PROCEDURE FOR SPACE FLIGHT

In a typical self-contained space navigation system, celestial observation data are gathered and processed to produce estimated velocity corrections. The results of this paper provide a basis for determining the best celestial measurements and the proper time s to implement velocity corrections. Fundamental to the navigation system is a procedure for processing celestial measurement data which permits incorporation of each individual measurement as it is made in order to provide an improved estimate of position and velocity. In order to "optimize" the navigation, a statistical evaluation of a number of alternative courses of action is made. The various alternatives, which form the basis of a decision process, concern the following: 1) which star and planet combination provides the "best" available observation; 2) whether the best observation gives a sufficient reduction in the predicted target error to warrant making the measurement; and 3) whether the uncertainty in the indicated velocity correction is a small enough percentage of the correction itself to justify an engine re-start and propellant expenditure. Numerical results are presented which illustrate the effectiveness of this approach to the space navigation problem.

NAVIGATION↗

NASA NTRS1962