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Rule-based models of human problem solving have typically not been tested for statistical significance. Three methods of testing rules - analysis of variance, randomization, and contingency tables - are presented. Advantages and disadvantages of the methods are also described.
A method of determining thermal diffusivity in thin plates is presented. The method, using infrared images of evolving thermal patterns previously injected with a laser, is noncontacting, one-sided, and remote. It does not require independent estimates of either the emissivity of the sample or the sample thickness. With a line-segment pattern for thermal input, it yields the inplane components of the diffusivity tensor in anisotropic materials and also the rate of heat loss to the environment of the plate. Two methods of data analysis are presented, one corresponding to a heating line of general cross section and the other considering a Gaussian cross section, thereby saving considerable computer time. Both methods produce a statistical evaluation of measurement quality as well as estimates of diffusivity and loss rate. Results are shown for plates of metals and graphite-epoxy composite materials. Principal components and orientation for the diffusivity tensor are obtained in the anisotropic graphite-epoxy sample.
Persistent anomalies with recurrent spatial patterns play an important role in the atmosphere's low-frequency variability. A connection between statistical and dynamical methods of description and prediction of persistent anomalies is established by computing and analyzing the empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) in a simple deterministic model, on the one hand, and in Southern Hemisphere geopotential heights, on the other. The dynamical model is governed by the fully nonlinear, equivalent-barotropic vorticity equation on the sphere, with simplified forcing, dissipation and topography. The Southern Hemisphere data consist in gridded daily maps of 500 mb heights from June 1972 to July 1983. Two types of persistent anomalies appear in this time series, both having a strong wavenumber-three component; they differ by the value of the constant phase of this wave and by the strength of the wavenumber-one component. The first two EOFs bear a striking resemblance to these two patterns. It is concluded that the dynamical interpretation of EOFs is their pointing from the time mean to the most populated regions of the system's phase space. Pursuing this interpretation, a Markov-chain formulation of transitions from one persistent anomaly regime to another is introduced, and the implications for long-range forecasting are discussed.
Mapping the solution domain of n-finite elements into N-subdomains that may be processed in parallel by N-processors is an optimal one if the subdomain decomposition results in a well-balanced workload distribution among the processors. The problem is discussed in the context of irregular finite element domains as an important aspect of the efficient utilization of the capabilities of emerging multiprocessor computers. Finding the optimal mapping is an intractable combinatorial optimization problem, for which a satisfactory approximate solution is obtained here by analogy to a method used in statistical mechanics for simulating the annealing process in solids. The simulated annealing analogy and algorithm are described, and numerical results are given for mapping an irregular two-dimensional finite element domain containing a singularity onto the Hypercube computer.
By application of simple computer graphics techniques, the statistical performance of two Monte Carlo methods used in the simulation of rarefied gas flows are assessed. Specifically, two direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) methods developed by Bird and Nanbu are considered. The graphics techniques are found to be of great benefit in the reduction and interpretation of the large volume of data generated, thus enabling important conclusions to be drawn about the simulation results. Hence, it is discovered that the method of Nanbu suffers from increased statistical fluctuations, thereby prohibiting its use in the solution of practical problems.
In recent years there has been a push within NASA to use statistical techniques to improve the quality of production. Two areas where statistics are used are in establishing product and process quality control of flight hardware and in evaluating the uncertainty of calibration of instruments. The Flight Systems Quality Engineering branch is responsible for developing and assuring the quality of all flight hardware; the statistical process control methods employed are reviewed and evaluated. The Measurement Standards and Calibration Laboratory performs the calibration of all instruments used on-site at JSC as well as those used by all off-site contractors. These calibrations must be performed in such a way as to be traceable to national standards maintained by the National Institute of Standards and Technology, and they must meet a four-to-one ratio of the instrument specifications to calibrating standard uncertainty. In some instances this ratio is not met, and in these cases it is desirable to compute the exact uncertainty of the calibration and determine ways of reducing it. A particular example where this problem is encountered is with a machine which does automatic calibrations of force. The process of force calibration using the United Force Machine is described in detail. The sources of error are identified and quantified when possible. Suggestions for improvement are made.
Trace driven cache simulation is central to computer design. A trace is a very long sequence of reference lines from main memory. At the t(exp th) instant, reference x sub t is hashed into a set of cache locations, the contents of which are then compared with x sub t. If at the t sup th instant x sub t is not present in the cache, then it is said to be a miss, and is loaded into the cache set, possibly forcing the replacement of some other memory line, and making x sub t present for the (t+1) sup st instant. The problem of parallel simulation of a subtrace of N references directed to a C line cache set is considered, with the aim of determining which references are misses and related statistics. A simulation method is presented for the Least Recently Used (LRU) policy, which regradless of the set size C runs in time O(log N) using N processors on the exclusive read, exclusive write (EREW) parallel model. A simpler LRU simulation algorithm is given that runs in O(C log N) time using N/log N processors. Timings are presented of the second algorithm's implementation on the MasPar MP-1, a machine with 16384 processors. A broad class of reference based line replacement policies are considered, which includes LRU as well as the Least Frequently Used and Random replacement policies. A simulation method is presented for any such policy that on any trace of length N directed to a C line set runs in the O(C log N) time with high probability using N processors on the EREW model. The algorithms are simple, have very little space overhead, and are well suited for SIMD implementation.
The vibroacoustic response of a generic geared rotor system is analyzed on an order of magnitude basis utilizing an approximate statistical energy analysis method. This model includes a theoretical coupling loss factor for a generic bearing component, which properly accounts for the vibration transmission through rolling element bearing. A simplified model of a NASA test stand that assumes vibratory energy flow from the gear mesh source to the casing through shafts and bearings is given as an example. Effects of dissipation loss factor and gearbox radiation efficiency models are studied by comparing predictions with NASA test results.
A recursive model-based data fusion algorithm for multi-sensor microburst hazard assessment is described. An analytical microburst model is used to approximate the actual windfield, and a set of 'best' model parameters are estimated from measured winds. The winds corresponding to the best parameter set can then be used to compute alerting factors such as microburst position, extent, and intensity. The estimation algorithm is based on an iterated extended Kalman filter which uses the microburst model parameters as state variables. Microburst state dynamic and process noise parameters are chosen based on measured microburst statistics. The estimation method is applied to data from a time-varying computational simulation of a historical microburst event to demonstrate its capabilities and limitations. Selection of filter parameters and initial conditions is discussed. Computational requirements and datalink bandwidth considerations are also addressed.
This article describes an investigation of a statistical hypothesis testing method for detecting changes in the characteristics of an observed time series. The work is motivated by the need for practical automated methods for on-line monitoring of Deep Space Network (DSN) equipment to detect failures and changes in behavior. In particular, on-line monitoring of the motor current in a DSN 34-m beam waveguide (BWG) antenna is used as an example. The algorithm is based on a measure of the information theoretic distance between two autoregressive models: one estimated with data from a dynamic reference window and one estimated with data from a sliding reference window. The Hinkley cumulative sum stopping rule is utilized to detect a change in the mean of this distance measure, corresponding to the detection of a change in the underlying process. The basic theory behind this two-model test is presented, and the problem of practical implementation is addressed, examining windowing methods, model estimation, and detection parameter assignment. Results from the five fault-transition simulations are presented to show the possible limitations of the detection method, and suggestions for future implementation are given.
The relative cost impacts (up or down) of developing Space Biology hardware using design modularity and commonality is studied. Recommendations for how the hardware development should be accomplished to meet optimum design modularity requirements for Life Science investigation hardware will be provided. In addition, the relative cost impacts of implementing commonality of hardware for all Space Biology hardware are defined. Cost analysis and supporting recommendations for levels of modularity and commonality are presented. A mathematical or statistical cost analysis method with the capability to support development of production design modularity and commonality impacts to parametric cost analysis is provided.
It is shown that the force distribution resulting from incomplete ribs in single spar wing structures may be determined with the aid of the shear field method by a statistically indeterminate computation. A numerical computation is given of the force distribution of a wing structure whose two neighboring incomplete ribs with web missing in half the section are torsionally loaded.
A recursive model-based data fusion algorithm for multi-sensor microburst hazard assessment is described. An analytical microburst model is used to approximate the actual windfield, and a set of 'best' model parameters are estimated from measured winds. The winds corresponding to the best parameter set can then be used to compute alerting factors such as microburst position, extent, and intensity. The estimation algorithm is based on an iterated extended Kalman filter which uses the microburst model parameters as state variables. Microburst state dynamic and process noise parameters are chosen based on measured microburst statistics. The estimation method is applied to data from a time-varying computational simulation of a historical microburst event to demonstrate its capabilities and limitations. Selection of filter parameters and initial conditions is discussed. Computational requirements and datalink bandwidth considerations are also addressed.
Using the 155-h coordinated magnetograph data of Huairou and Big Bear Solar Observatories, we have studied the evolution and lifetime of magnetic network elements in an enhanced network region. Both statistical and counting methods give a mean lifetime of network elements of 50h. The network elements are divided into two categories according to their evolution: 'breakup' and 'merging'. They have similar average lifetimes. We also find that the number of the elements that disappear by merging is about twice that by breakup. This may indicate that the creation and disappearance of magnetic network elements are balanced.
High Charge and Energy Transport (HZETRN) computer program computationally efficient, user-friendly package of software adressing problem of transport of, and shielding against, radiation in free space. Designed as "black box" for design engineers not concerned with physics of underlying atomic and nuclear radiation processes in free-space environment, but rather primarily interested in obtaining fast and accurate dosimetric information for design and construction of modules and devices for use in free space. Computational efficiency achieved by unique algorithm based on deterministic approach to solution of Boltzmann equation rather than computationally intensive statistical Monte Carlo method. Written in FORTRAN.
ACARA analyzes availability, life-cycle cost, and scheduling of resources. Uses statistical Monte Carlo method to simulate capacity states of system as well as failure and repair of components. Failures of components modeled mathematically by use of combination of exponential and Weibull probability distributions. Schedules replacement of components to optimize performance of system. Made to comply with any constraints on production of components, capacities of resupply vehicles, spares kept on site, crews, and/or equipment. Written in APL2.
The purpose of this paper is to describe systems and components of systems developed by personnel in the Signal Processing Section of the Tracking and Communications Division. The scope of this includes past developments which are in current use in NASA flight operations and future developments which are targeted for upcoming NASA applications. These projects specifically are: (1) NASA High Definition Television (HDTV) Project, (2) Video Codecs, (3) NASA Electronic Still Camera (ESC) Project, (4) Hercules Payload, (5) Ku-band Communications Adapter (KCA), (6) Windows Drivers for Satellite Interfacing to Commercial Equipment, and (7) Advanced Statistical Multiplexers. The methods used to determine what projects should be done in-house as opposed to which should not is based in NASA applications versus commercially available systems to meet those applications. If a commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) component or system is available which meets the need, the first choice is to use COTS equipment. If it is not, and there is a NASA requirement, it is developed in-house. This results in technology which is being developed which otherwise was not available. Personnel involved in these projects have been contacted by many commercial companies interested in licensing or obtaining the NASA design.
The need for passive microwave radiometry using aperture synthesis and phased arrays for large apertures requiring more stability has generated several studies. The in-flight calibration and, therefore, the stability of such systems is an important design consideration. A 4.3 GHz laboratory radiometry operating in a balanced Dicke mode has been developed for making precise brightness (noise) temperature measurements. The stability of the noise diode source used in the noise-injection loop is of interest. A statistical Allan variance method to characterize the stability of the radiometer and the noise diode is presented in this paper. Noise measurements which demonstrate this approach are also included.