Robust importance sampling for error estimation in the context of optimal Bayesian transfer learning
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97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Bayesian inverse uncertainty quantification of the physical model parameters for the spallation neutron source first target station
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71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
Machine-learning-based efficient parameter space exploration for energy storage systems
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Bayesian optimization↗
Predicting Large‐Scale Systematic Missing Pipe Attributes in Water Distribution Networks
Water distribution network (WDN) models are an essential tool used by water utilities for hydraulic analysis. Unfortunately, missing data and insufficient resources often make creating and maintaining these models unfeasible. Existing methods to address missing pipe properties, like sequential imputation for missing values and reconstruction using graph metrics, are designed to accommodate random patterns of missing information and require a significant percentage of the system's attributes to be known. However, these data completeness assumptions do not always align with real‐world scenarios where large sections of the WDN model have missing data. To address this challenge, this study proposes a data‐driven approach for estimating pipe diameter when considering different spatial patterns and degrees of data completeness (i.e., 0%–90%). Using data from 16 WDNs in Kentucky, this study compares the use of machine learning (ML) using topological and geospatial features against an existing deterministic approach. Results demonstrate that WDN models with pipe diameters predicted by the proposed ML method had comparable hydraulic performance to the ground truth models. Moreover, results showed that ML method performance varies between WDNs of differing topological classification. Insights from this study help advance the ability to leverage partial data to create and maintain WDN models amid uncertainty and inadequate resources.
Poff, Jason W. [Oregon State Univ., Corvallis, OR ↗
Code-to-code comparison and validation of the radiation-hydrodynamics capabilities of the FLASH code using a laboratory astrophysical jet
The potential for laser-produced plasmas to yield fundamental insights into high energy density physics (HEDP) and deliver other useful applications can sometimes be frustrated by uncertainties in modeling the properties and behavior of these plasmas using radiation-hydrodynamics codes. In an effort to overcome this and to corroborate the accuracy of the HEDP capabilities in the publicly available FLASH radiation-hydrodynamics code, we present detailed code-to-code comparisons between FLASH and the HYDRA code developed at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory using previously published HYDRA simulations from Grava et al. [Phys. Rev. E 78, 016403 (2008)]. That study describes a laser experiment that produced a jet-like feature that the authors compare to astrophysical jets. Importantly, the Grava et al. [Phys. Rev. E 78, 016403 (2008)] experiment included detailed x-ray interferometric measurements of electron number densities and a time-integrated measurement of the soft x-ray spectrum. Despite markedly different methods for treating the computational mesh, and different equations of state and opacity models, the FLASH results resemble the results from HYDRA and, most importantly, the experimental measurements of electron density. Having validated the FLASH code in this way, we use the code to further investigate and understand the formation of the jet seen in the Grava et al. [Phys. Rev. E 78, 016403 (2008)] experiment and discuss its relation to the Wan et al. [Phys. Rev. E 55, 6293 (1997)] experiment at the NOVA laser.
Orban, Chris (ORCID:0000000312004538)↗
Overview of preparation for the American WAKE ExperimeNt (AWAKEN)
The American WAKE ExperimeNt (AWAKEN) is a multi-institutional field campaign focused on gathering critical observations of wind farm–atmosphere interactions. These interactions are responsible for a large portion of the uncertainty in wind plant modeling tools that are used to represent wind plant performance both prior to construction and during operation and can negatively impact wind energy profitability. The AWAKEN field campaign will provide data for validation, ultimately improving modeling and lowering these uncertainties. The field campaign is designed to address seven testable hypotheses through the analysis of the observations collected by numerous instruments at 13 ground-based locations and on five wind turbines. The location of the field campaign in Northern Oklahoma was chosen to leverage existing observational facilities operated by the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program in close proximity to five operating wind plants. The vast majority of the observations from the experiment are publicly available to researchers and industry members worldwide, which the authors hope will advance the state of the science for wind plants and lead to lower cost and increased reliability of wind energy systems.
17 WIND ENERGY↗
Large Eddy Simulation of Low-Reynolds-Number Turbulent Flow of Low-Prandtl-Number Fluid in a Tight Lattice Bundle for Assessment of Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes Turbulence Model
The MARVEL (Microreactor Applications Research Validation and Evaluation) microreactor utilizes natural circulation as core cooling mechanism and liquid metal as a primary coolant. Moreover, the reactor core has a pitch-to-diameter ratio of 1.056, which is considered a tight lattice configuration. Numerous studies have widely reported that Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) turbulence models inaccurately predict heat transfer in liquid metals and fail to capture flow pulsations that can occur within tight lattices, leading to further inaccuracies in simulation results. Therefore, evaluating the accuracy of RANS turbulence models in the thermal-hydraulic analysis of the MARVEL microreactor core is crucial for assessing reactor safety. In this study, a Large Eddy Simulation (LES) of the MARVEL microreactor core subchannel was conducted and compared with a RANS simulation to evaluate the accuracies and conservatism of the RANS model. The flow pulsation in a tight lattice predicted by LES enhanced the heat transfer, whereas the RANS model underpredicted it. Consequently, the RANS model predicted the peak cladding temperature higher than the LES model, but the discrepancy between the two approaches was not significant due to the good thermal characteristics of the liquid metal. It can be concluded that the steady-state RANS model is effective for the thermal analysis of liquid-metal-cooled MARVEL microreactor core and can provide conservative predictions from a safety analysis perspective.
21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN↗
Probabilistic R&D Portfolio Management Applied to Energy Storage
Here this paper proposes a methodology to analyze the potential of several alternative technologies in advancing a research and development portfolio. The methodology considers technology maturation, use case requirements, performance goals, cost projections, and existing research and development (R&D) efforts to predict the impact of various R&D investment tracks across several energy storage technologies. Technology maturation and cost projections are derived from a probabilistic Monte Carlo simulation, yielding results that incorporate uncertainty in modeling the impact of future R&D. This framework allows the researcher to perform a robust sensitivity analysis to uncover critical pathways and areas where investment will have a high impact.
25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
ML-based calibration and control of the GlueX Central Drift Chamber
The GlueX Central Drift Chamber (CDC) in Hall D at Jefferson Lab, used for detecting and tracking charged particles, is calibrated and controlled during data taking using a Gaussian process. The system dynamically adjusts the high voltage applied to the anode wires inside the chamber in response to changing environmental and experimental conditions such that the gain is stabilized. Control policies have been established to manage the CDC's behavior. These policies are activated when the model's uncertainty exceeds a configurable threshold or during human-initiated tests during normal production running. Finally, we demonstrate the system reduces the time detector experts dedicate to calibration of the data offline, leading to a marked decrease in computing resource usage without compromising detector performance.
47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
Decarbonizing US passenger vehicle transport under electrification and automation uncertainty has a travel budget
Abstract The transportation sector is at the beginning of a transition represented by electrification, shared mobility, and automation, which could lead to either increases or decreases in total travel and energy use. Understanding the factors enabling deep decarbonization of the passenger vehicle sector is essential for planning the required infrastructure investments and technology adoption policies. We examine the requirements for meeting carbon reduction targets of 80% and higher for passenger vehicle transport in the United States (US) by midcentury under uncertainty. We model the changes needed in vehicle electrification, electricity carbon intensity, and travel demand. Since growth in fleet penetration of electric vehicles (EVs) is constrained by fleet stock turnover, we estimate the EV penetration rates needed to meet climate targets. We find for a base case level of passenger vehicle travel, midcentury deep decarbonization of US passenger transport is conditional on reducing the electricity generation carbon intensity to close to zero along with electrification of about 67% or 84% of vehicle travel to meet decarbonization targets of 80% or 90%, respectively. Higher electricity generation carbon intensity and degraded EV fuel economy due to automation would require higher levels of fleet electrification and/or further constrain the total vehicle travel allowable. Transportation deep decarbonization not only depends on electricity decarbonization, but also has a total travel budget, representing a maximum total vehicle travel threshold that still enables meeting a midcentury climate target. This makes encouraging ride sharing, reducing total vehicle travel, and increasing fuel economy in both human-driven and future automated vehicles increasingly important to deep decarbonization.
Alarfaj, Abdullah F. (ORCID:0000000157360662)↗
Reduced-basis method for few-body bound-state emulation
Recent advances in both theoretical and computational methods have enabled large-scale, precision calculations of the properties of atomic nuclei. With the growing complexity of modern nuclear theory, however, also comes the need for novel methods to perform systematic studies and quantify the uncertainties of models when confronted with experimental data. Here, this study presents an application of such an approach, the reduced basis method, to substantially lower computational costs by constructing a significantly smaller Hamiltonian subspace informed by previous solutions. Our method shows comparable efficiency and accuracy to other dimensionality reduction techniques on an artificial three-body bound system while providing a richer representation of physical information in its projection and training subspace. This methodological advancement can be applied in other contexts and has the potential to greatly improve our ability to systematically explore theoretical models and thus enhance our understanding of the fundamental properties of nuclear systems.
cluster models↗
Sensitivity of Au + Au collisions to the symmetric nuclear matter equation of state at 2–5 nuclear saturation densities
We demonstrate that proton and pion flow measurements in heavy-ion collisions at incident energies ranging from 1 to 20 GeV per nucleon in the fixed target frame can be used for an accurate determination of the symmetric nuclear matter equation of state at baryon densities equal 2–4 times nuclear saturation density n 0 . We simulate Au + Au collisions at these energies using a hadronic transport model with an adjustable vector mean-field potential dependent on baryon density n B . Here, we show that the mean field can be parametrized to reproduce a given density dependence of the speed of sound at zero temperature $c$$^{2}_{s}$ (n B , T = 0), which we vary independently in multiple density intervals to probe the differential sensitivity of heavy-ion observables to the equation of state at these specific densities. Recent flow data from the STAR experiment at the center-of-mass energies √ s NN = {3.0, 4.5} GeV can be described by our model, and a Bayesian analysis of these data indicates a hard equation of state at n B ϵ (2, 3)n 0 and a possible phase transition at n B ϵ (3, 4)n 0 . More data at √ s NN = 2–5 GeV, as well as a more thorough analysis of the model systematic uncertainties will be necessary for a more precise conclusion.
73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
Measurements of the time-dependent cosmic-ray Sun shadow with seven years of IceCube data: Comparison with the Solar cycle and magnetic field models
Observations of the time-dependent cosmic-ray Sun shadow have been proven as a valuable diagnostic for the assessment of solar magnetic field models. Here, seven years of IceCube data are compared to solar activity and solar magnetic field models. A quantitative comparison of solar magnetic field models with IceCube data on the event rate level is performed for the first time. Additionally, a first energy-dependent analysis is presented and compared to recent predictions. We use seven years of IceCube data for the moon and the Sun and compare them to simulations on data rate level. The simulations are performed for the geometrical shadow hypothesis for the moon and the Sun and for a cosmic-ray propagation model governed by the solar magnetic field for the case of the Sun. We find that a linearly decreasing relationship between Sun shadow strength and solar activity is preferred over a constant relationship at the 6.4σ level. We test two commonly used models of the coronal magnetic field, both combined with a Parker spiral, by modeling cosmic-ray propagation in the solar magnetic field. Both models predict a weakening of the shadow in times of high solar activity as it is also visible in the data. We find tensions with the data on the order of 3σ for both models, assuming only statistical uncertainties. The magnetic field model CSSS fits the data slightly better than the PFSS model. This is generally consistent with what is found previously by the Tibet AS-γ Experiment; a deviation of the data from the two models is, however, not significant at this point. Regarding the energy dependence of the Sun shadow, we find indications that the shadowing effect increases with energy during times of high solar activity, in agreement with theoretical predictions.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Novel Measurement of the Neutron Magnetic Form Factor from A=3 Mirror Nuclei
The electromagnetic form factors of the proton and neutron encode information on the spatial structure of their charge and magnetization distributions. While measurements of the proton are relatively straightforward, the lack of a free neutron target makes measurements of the neutron's electromagnetic structure more challenging and more sensitive to experimental or model-dependent uncertainties. Various experiments have attempted to extract the neutron form factors from scattering from the neutron in deuterium, with different techniques providing different, and sometimes large, systematic uncertainties. We present results from a novel measurement of the neutron magnetic form factor using quasielastic scattering from the mirror nuclei 3 H and 3 He, where the nuclear effects are larger than for deuterium but expected to largely cancel in the cross-section ratios. We extracted values of the neutron magnetic form factor for low-to-modest momentum transfer, 0.6 < Q 2 < 2.9 GeV 2 , where existing measurements give inconsistent results. The precision and Q 2 range of these data allow for a better understanding of the current world’s data and suggest a path toward further improvement of our overall understanding of the neutron’s magnetic form factor.
73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
A Generalized Copula-Polynomial Chaos Expansion for Probabilistic Power Flow Considering Nonlinear Correlations of PV Injections
This paper develops a generalized Copula-polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) framework for power system probabilistic power flow that can handle both linear and nonlinear correlations of uncertain power injections, such as wind and PVs. A data-driven Copula statistical model is used to capture the correlations of uncertain power injections. This allows us to resort to the Rosenblatt transformation to transform correlated variables into independent ones while preserving the dependence structure. This paves the way of leveraging the PCE for surrogate modeling and uncertainty quantification of power flow results, i.e., achieving the probabilistic distributions of power flows. Simulations carried out on the IEEE 57-bus system show that the proposed framework can get much more accurate results than other alternatives with different linear and nonlinear power injection correlations.
copula↗
Robust Parameter Design on Dual Stochastic Response Models With Constrained Bayesian Optimization
In engineering system design, minimizing the variations of the quality measurements while guaranteeing their overall quality up to certain levels, namely the robust parameter design (RPD), is crucial. Recent works have dealt with the design of a system whose response-control variables relationship is a deterministic function with a complex shape and function evaluation is expensive. In this work, we propose a Bayesian optimization method for the RPD of stochastic functions. Dual stochastic response models are carefully designed for stochastic functions. The heterogeneous variance of the sample mean is addressed by the predictive mean of the log variance surrogate model in a two-step approach. We establish an acquisition function that favors exploration across the feasible and optimality-improvable regions to effectively and efficiently solve the stochastic constrained optimization problem. Further, the performance of our proposed method is demonstrated by the extensive numerical and case studies. Note to Practitioners-Many manufacturing processes involve undesirable variations, which create variations in the final products. For example, many emerging manufacturing processes, such as nanomanufacturing, involve complex physical and chemical dynamics and transformation, creating variations in the manufacturing output. In such processes, it is crucial to design the manufacturing processes or products so that they have minimum variations in their quality. Meanwhile, it is also important to maintain the overall quality of the designed processes or products. Furthermore, acquiring data from many advanced manufacturing processes is often very costly, especially in the designing stage. In this work, we propose a data-driven method that automatically finds the best setting of manufacturing processes or products with the minimum variations of quality and a given constraint on the average quality satisfied. Our proposed method is used before conducting every experiment; It analyzes the historical data from previous experiments and provides a setting to be used in the next experiment. Our proposed method efficiently utilizes the historical data, and thus finds the best robust setting by conducting only a small number of experiments.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Fault diagnosis and fault tolerant control for T-S fuzzy stochastic distribution systems subject to sensor and actuator faults
The problem of fault diagnosis (FD) and fault tolerant control (FTC) for a class of Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy stochastic distribution control (SDC) systems subject to sensor and actuator faults is discussed in this paper. First, fuzzy logic models are used to approximate the output probability density function (PDF). Next, an adaptive augmented state/fault diagnosis observer is proposed to estimate the system state, sensor and the actuator faults simultaneously. New expected weights based on the sensor fault estimation information and a PI-type fuzzy feedback fault tolerant (FT) controller are designed to compensate the effect of sensor fault and actuator fault simultaneously. When the sensor fault occurs, the expected objective is redesigned to compensate the sensor fault. Meanwhile, the PI controller can compensate the effect of actuator fault, and the output PDF of the system can still track the desired PDF after the fault occurs. Finally, an example of quality distribution control in chemical reaction process is given to confirm the effectiveness of the algorithm.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Bayesian High-Rank Hankel Matrix Completion for Nonlinear Synchrophasor Data Recovery
Phasor measurement units (PMUs) provide high temporal-resolution synchrophasor measurements for power system monitoring and control. The frequent data quality issues, such as missing and bad data, prevent the incorporation of synchrophasor data in real-time operations. Most existing data-driven data recovery methods assume the power system dynamics can be approximated by a linear dynamical system, and the recovery performance degrades significantly when the power system is experiencing nonlinear dynamics during significant events. Here, this paper proposes a data-driven Bayesian nonlinear synchrophasor data recovery method (Ba-NSDR) that can recover a consecutive time period of simultaneous data losses or errors across all channels, even when the underlying system is highly nonlinear. The idea is to lift the Hankel matrix of the spatial-temporal synchrophasor data to a higher dimension such that the lifted Hankel matrix is low-rank in that space and can be processed with the kernel trick. Our proposed Bayesian method then infers the probabilistic distributions of synchrophasor from the partial observations. Some distinctive features of Ba-NSDR include an uncertainty index to measure the accuracy of the recovery result and the robustness to parameter selections. Our method is verified on both synthetic and recorded event datasets.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗