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At least 811 records · Page 45

How the Great Plains Dust Bowl drought spread heat extremes around the Northern Hemisphere

Abstract Extraordinary heat extremes occurred in the 1930s in areas of the Northern Hemisphere far from the record setting heat over the US associated with the Great Plains Dust Bowl drought. A climate model sensitivity experiment is used to identify a new mechanism involving a warm season circumglobal atmospheric teleconnection pattern that spread heat extremes over far-flung areas of the Northern Hemisphere arising from the intense heating over the desiccated Great Plains themselves. It has only been in the twenty-first century that human populations in these regions of the Northern Hemisphere have experienced heat extremes comparable to the 1930s. This demonstrates that humans influenced Northern Hemisphere temperature and heat extremes through disastrous and unprecedented regional land use practices over the Great Plains, and points to the possibility that future intense regional droughts could affect heat extremes on hemispheric scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Nitrogen fixing shrubs advance the pace of tall-shrub expansion in low-Arctic tundra

Abstract Tall deciduous shrubs are critically important to carbon and nutrient cycling in high-latitude ecosystems. As Arctic regions warm, shrubs expand heterogeneously across their ranges, including within unburned terrain experiencing isometric gradients of warming. To constrain the effects of widespread shrub expansion in terrestrial and Earth System Models, improved knowledge of local-to-regional scale patterns, rates, and controls on decadal shrub expansion is required. Using fine-scale remote sensing, we modeled the drivers of patch-scale tall-shrub expansion over 68 years across the central Seward Peninsula of Alaska. Models show the heterogeneous patterns of tall-shrub expansion are not only predictable but have an upper limit defined by permafrost, climate, and edaphic gradients, two-thirds of which have yet to be colonized. These observations suggest that increased nitrogen inputs from nitrogen-fixing alders contributed to a positive feedback that advanced overall tall-shrub expansion. These findings will be useful for constraining and projecting vegetation-climate feedbacks in the Arctic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Maintenance of Sympatric and Allopatric Populations in Free-Living Terrestrial Bacteria

For free-living bacteria and archaea, the equivalent of the biological species concept does not exist, creating several obstacles to the study of the processes contributing to microbial diversification. These obstacles are particularly high in soil, where high bacterial diversity inhibits the study of closely related genotypes and therefore the factors structuring microbial populations. Here, we isolated strains within a single Curtobacterium ecotype from surface soil (leaf litter) across a regional climate gradient and investigated the phylogenetic structure, recombination, and flexible gene content of this genomic diversity to infer patterns of gene flow. Our results indicate that microbial populations are delineated by gene flow discontinuities, with distinct populations cooccurring at multiple sites. Bacterial population structure was further delineated by genomic features allowing for the identification of candidate genes possibly contributing to local adaptation. These results suggest that the genetic structure within this bacterium is maintained both by ecological specialization in localized microenvironments (isolation by environment) and by dispersal limitation between geographic locations (isolation by distance).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

The Late Pliocene Eltanin Impact: Documentation From Sediment Core Analyses

The expeditions ANT-XII/4 (1995) and ANT-XVIII/5a (2001) of the RV POLARSTERN collected extensive bathymetric and seismic data sets as well as sediment cores from an area in the Bellingshausen Sea (eastern Pacific Southern Ocean) that allow the first comprehensive geoscientific documentation of an asteroid impact into a deep ocean (approx. 5 km) basin, named the Eltanin impact. Impact deposits have now been recovered from a total of more than 20 sediment cores collected in an area covering about 80,000 km2. Combined biomagnetostratigraphic dating places the impact event into the earliest Matuyama Chron, a period of enhanced climate variability. Sediment texture analyses and studies of sediment composition including grain size and microfossil distribution reveal the pattern of impact- related sediment disturbance and the sedimentary processes immediately following the impact event. The pattern is complicated by the San Martin Seamounts (approx. 57.5 S, 91 W), a large topographic elevation that rises up to 3000 m above the surrounding abyssal plain in the area affected by the Eltanin impact. The impact ripped up sediments as old as Eocene and probably Paleocene that have been redeposited in a chaotic assemblage. This is followed by a sequence sedimented from a turbulent flow at the sea floor, overprinted by fall-out of airborne meteoritic ejecta that settled trough the water column. Grain size distribution reveals the timing and interaction of the different sedimentary processes. The gathered estimate of ejecta mass deposited over the studied area, composed of shock-melted asteroidal material and unmelted meteorites including fragments up to 2.5 cm in diameter, point to an Eltanin asteroid larger than the 1 km in diameter size originally suggested as a minimum based on the ANT-XII/4 results. This places the energy released by the impact at the threshold of those considered to cause environmental disturbance at a global scale and it makes the impact a likely transport mechanism explaining the presence of extinct Cenozoic microfossils in the transantarctic Sirius Unit. Although a crater structure representing Eltanin ground zero has not been discovered, the distribution pattern of sediment disturbance and ejecta deposits now allows to better determine the central target area north of the San Martin Seamounts.

Gersonde, R.↗

Real Data and Rapid Results: Ocean Color Data Analysis with Giovanni (GES DISC Interactive Online Visualization and ANalysis Infrastructure)

The NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) has taken a major step addressing the challenge of using archived Earth Observing System (EOS) data for regional or global studies by developing an infrastructure with a World Wide Web interface which allows online, interactive, data analysis: the GES DISC Interactive Online Visualization and ANalysis Infrastructure, or "Giovanni." Giovanni provides a data analysis environment that is largely independent of underlying data file format. The Ocean Color Time-Series Project has created an initial implementation of Giovanni using monthly Standard Mapped Image (SMI) data products from the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) mission. Giovanni users select geophysical parameters, and the geographical region and time period of interest. The system rapidly generates a graphical or ASCII numerical data output. Currently available output options are: Area plot (averaged or accumulated over any available data period for any rectangular area); Time plot (time series averaged over any rectangular area); Hovmeller plots (image view of any longitude-time and latitude-time cross sections); ASCII output for all plot types; and area plot animations. Future plans include correlation plots, output formats compatible with Geographical Information Systems (GIs), and higher temporal resolution data. The Ocean Color Time-Series Project will produce sensor-independent ocean color data beginning with the Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS) mission and extending through SeaWiFS and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data sets, and will enable incorporation of Visible/lnfrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) data, which will be added to Giovanni. The first phase of Giovanni will also include tutorials demonstrating the use of Giovanni and collaborative assistance in the development of research projects using the SeaWiFS and Ocean Color Time-Series Project data in the online Laboratory for Ocean Color Users (LOCUS). The synergy of Giovanni with high-quality ocean color data provides users with the ability to investigate a variety of important oceanic phenomena, such as coastal primary productivity related to pelagic fisheries, seasonal patterns and interannual variability, interdependence of atmospheric dust aerosols and harmful algal blooms, and the potential effects of climate change on oceanic productivity.

Acker, J. G.↗

The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission for Science and Society

Precipitation is a key source of freshwater; therefore, observing global patterns of precipitation and its intensity is important for science, society, and understanding our planet in a changing climate. In 2014, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) launched the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Core Observatory (CO) spacecraft. The GPM CO carries the most advanced precipitation sensors currently in space including a dual-frequency precipitation radar provided by JAXA for measuring the three-dimensional structures of precipitation and a well-calibrated, multifrequency passive microwave radiometer that provides wide-swath precipitation data. The GPM CO was designed to measure rain rates from 0.2 to 110.0 mm h1 and to detect moderate to intense snow events. The GPM CO serves as a reference for unifying the data from a constellation of partner satellites to provide next-generation, merged precipitation estimates globally and with high spatial and temporal resolutions. Through improved measurements of rain and snow, precipitation data from GPM provides new information such as details on precipitation structure and intensity; observations of hurricanes and typhoons as they transition from the tropics to the midlatitudes; data to advance near-real-time hazard assessment for floods, landslides, and droughts; inputs to improve weather and climate models; and insights into agricultural productivity, famine, and public health. Since launch, GPM teams have calibrated satellite instruments, refined precipitation retrieval algorithms, expanded science investigations, and processed and disseminated precipitation data for a range of applications. The current status of GPM, its ongoing science, and its future plans are presented.

Gail Skofronick-Jackson↗

Changes in Vegetation Phenology and Productivity in Alaska Over the Past Two Decades

Understanding trends in vegetation phenology and growing season productivity at a regional scale is important for global change studies, particularly as linkages can be made between climate shifts and the vegetation’s potential to sequester or release carbon into the atmosphere. Trends and geographic patterns of change in vegetation growth and phenology from the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite data sets were analyzed for the state of Alaska over the period 2000 to 2018. Phenology metrics derived from the MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time-series at 250 m resolution tracked changes in the total integrated greenness cover (TIN), maximum annual NDVI (MAXN), and start of the season timing (SOST) date over the past two decades. SOST trends showed significantly earlier seasonal vegetation greening (at more than one day per year) across the northeastern Brooks Range Mountains, on the Yukon-Kuskokwim coastal plain, and in the southern coastal areas of Alaska. TIN and MAXN have increased significantly across the western Arctic Coastal Plain and within the perimeters of most large wildfires of the Interior boreal region that burned since the year 2000, whereas TIN and MAXN have decreased notably in watersheds of Bristol Bay and in the Cook Inlet lowlands of southwestern Alaska, in the same regions where earlier-trending SOST was also detected. Mapping results from this MODIS time-series analysis have identified a new database of localized study locations across Alaska where vegetation phenology has recently shifted notably, and where land cover types and ecosystem processes could be changing rapidly.

Vegetation↗

Recent Changes in Cyanobacteria Algal Bloom Magnitude in Large Lakes Across the Contiguous United States

Cyanobacterial blooms in inland lakes produce large quantities of biomass that impact drinking water systems, recreation, and tourism and may produce toxins that can adversely affect public health. This study analyzed nine years of satellite-derived bloom records and compared how the bloom magnitude has changed from 2008-2011 to 2016-2020 in 1881 of the largest lakes across the contiguous United States (CONUS). We determined bloom magnitude each year as the spatio-temporal mean cyanobacteria biomass from May to October and in concentrations of chlorophyll-a. We found that bloom magnitude decreased in 465 (25%) lakes in the 2016-2020 23 period. Conversely, there was an increase in bloom magnitude in only 81 lakes (4%). Bloom magnitude either didn’t change, or the observed change was in the uncertainty range in the majority of the lakes (n=1335, 71%). Above-normal wetness and normal or below-normal maximum temperature over the warm season may have caused the decrease in bloom magnitude in the eastern part of the CONUS in recent years. On the other hand, a hotter and dryer warm season in the western CONUS may have created an environment for increased algal biomass. While more lakes saw a decrease in bloom magnitude, the pattern was not monotonic over the CONUS. The variations in temporal changes in bloom magnitude within and across climatic regions depend on the interactions between land use land cover (LULC) and physical factors such as temperature and precipitation. Despite expectations suggested by recent global studies, bloom magnitude has not increased in larger US lakes over this time period.

remote sensing↗

Identifying environmental features for land management decisions

Pairs of HCMM day-night thermal infrared (IR) data were selected to examine patterns of surface temperature and thermal inertia (TI) of peninsular Florida. GOES and NOAA-6 thermal IR, as well as National Climatic Center temperatures and rainfall, were also used. The HCMM apparent thermal inertia (ATI) images closely correspond to the General Soil Map of Florida, based on soil drainage classes. Areas with low ATI overlay well-drained soils, such as deep sands and drained organic soils. Areas with high ATI overlay areas with wetlands and bodies of water. The HCMM ATI images also correspond well with GOES-detected winter nocturnal cold-prone areas. Use of HCMM data with Carlson's energy balance model shows both high moisture availability (MA) and high thermal inertia (TI) of wetland-type surfaces and low MA and low TI of upland, well-drained soils. Since soil areas with low TI develop higher temperatures during the day, then antecedent patterns of highest maximum daytime surface temperature can also be used to predict nocturnal cold-prone areas in Florida.

Source record↗

Bellingshausen Sea Ice Extent Recorded in an Antarctic Peninsula Ice Core

Annual net accumulation (A(sub n)) from the Bruce Plateau (BP) ice core retrieved from the Antarctic Peninsula exhibits a notable relationship with sea ice extent (SIE) in the Bellingshausen Sea. Over the satellite era, both BP A(sub n) and Bellingshausen SIE are influenced by large-scale climatic factors such as the Amundsen Sea Low, Southern Annular Mode, and Southern Oscillation. In addition to the direct response of BP A(sub n) to Bellingshausen SIE (e.g., more open water as a moisture source), these large-scale climate phenomena also link the BP and the Bellingshausen Sea indirectly such that they exhibit similar responses (e.g., northerly wind anomalies advect warm, moist air to the Antarctic Peninsula and neighboring Bellingshausen Sea, which reduces SIE and increases A(sub n)). Comparison with a time series of fast ice at South Orkney Islands reveals a relationship between BP A(sub n) and sea ice in the northern Weddell Sea that is relatively consistent over the twentieth century, except when it is modulated by atmospheric wave patterns described by the Trans-Polar Index. The trend of increasing accumulation on the Bruce Plateau since approximately 1970 agrees with other climate records and reconstructions in the region and suggests that the current rate of sea ice loss in the Bellingshausen Sea is unrivaled in the twentieth century.

sea ice↗

No Need to Wait for the Clean Air Dividend

Controlling smog and soot is the classic win-win situation, so it's great that the world is finally waking up to the idea. WHAT if there was a way to simultaneously slow down climate change, save millions of lives, improve crop yields and contribute to sustainable development and energy security? It sounds too good to be true, but it is possible. It won't be free or easy, but with some effort and moderate investment, it can be done. The way to do it is to reduce emissions leading to two types of pollution: black carbon and ozone. These are the only pollutants that we know contribute to both global warming and poor air quality. Black carbon is essentially soot, emitted from incomplete combustion of fossil fuels and biomass. It warms the climate in two ways: by absorbing heat in the atmosphere - similar to the greenhouse effect - and by reducing Earth's albedo, or ability to reflect sunlight. Inhaled into the lungs, it leads to cancer and cardiovascular disease. Ozone in the atmosphere also acts as a greenhouse gas, while ground-level ozone is toxic to humans and plants, so leads to both premature death and reduced crop yields. Ozone is not emitted directly but is produced by the action of sunlight on other pollutants, which are known as ozone precursors. Since black carbon and ozone are important components of soot and smog, a great deal of effort has already been put into developing methods to reduce emissions. So effective technology is available, but needs wider implementation. The recommended control measures for black carbon include widespread and tight emission standards on diesel cars and trucks; improved solid fuel cooking stoves, brick kilns and coke ovens in the developing world; and a ban on the open burning of agricultural waste. Implementation of these measures would have a rapid impact on the climate and human health, and also have the added benefit of greatly reducing emissions of carbon monoxide, an important ozone precursor. A second key ozone precursor is methane, which is also a powerful greenhouse gas in its own right. Control measures include reducing leaks from natural gas pipelines and storage tanks, and capturing it from coal, gas and oil extraction, landfills and wastewater treatment plants. Aeration of rice paddies and manure management can also reduce methane releases. Captured methane can often be sold or turned into power. In Monterrey, Mexico, for example, electricity generated from methane collected from the city landfill powers the public transportation system. So such measures can be beneficial even when ignoring the health and climate effects, as they can contribute to energy security and often pay for themselves. According to calculations by me and my colleagues, phasing in all these measures over the next 20 years would reduce global warming by about 0.5 degC in 2050, half of the projected increase between now and then (Science, vol 335, p 183). Regional benefits would be even greater, as black carbon disrupts rainfall patterns and magnifies warming and melting of snow and ice in parts of the world including the Arctic and the Himalayas. On top of the climate benefits, cutting black carbon and ozone would prevent over 3 million premature deaths from air pollution, and increase yields of staple crops by roughly 50 million tonnes a year. Improved cooking stoves would also decrease the demand for firewood in the developing world, reducing deforestation and freeing up time for those who collect wood - primarily women and children - to pursue other activities such as education. Similarly, improved brick kilns now being used in parts of Latin America and Asia require half as much fuel as traditional ones and are less time-intensive for the operators. This means that in addition to their environmental benefits, these measures can contribute to sustainable and human development. Tackling black carbon and methane is clearly a great idea, so why hasn't it been done already? There are many barriers. The upfront costs of some measures can be prohibitive even when they eventually pay for themselves. But this can be overcome by mechanisms such as international financing of capital costs. For other measures, the costs are typically borne by a few while the benefits accrue to everybody. In such cases civil society and governments must get involved. Governments are starting to act. In February, the US, Canada, Sweden, Bangladesh, Ghana and Mexico launched the Climate and Clean Air Coalition to support implementation of measures like these. This coalition will hopefully expand and achieve rapid, widespread adoption of measures to cut black carbon and ozone. While the climate benefits will be substantial, it is important to note that these measures cannot substitute for cuts in carbon dioxide. Black carbon, ozone, carbon monoxide and methane stay in the atmosphere for a fairly short time - a few days for black carbon and about a decade for methane. They thus respond quickly to emissions changes and give us substantial leverage over near-term climate change. In contrast, carbon dioxide is very long-lived and so responds slowly to emissions changes. This means that cuts have little immediate impact, but it also means they must be made now to avoid disastrous changes later on. Controlling short-lived climate pollutants is thus an issue of fairness. Much as failure to reduce carbon dioxide emissions soon would condemn future generations to disastrous change, failure to reduce near-term climate change condemns those alive today to suffer worsening effects of the sort already seen. Some wonder if we really can do both. We can, and we must.

Shindell, Drew↗

Effects of warming on bacterial growth rates in a peat soil under ambient and elevated CO 2

Boreal peatlands are important global carbon reservoirs that are particularly vulnerable to predicted climate changes such as increasing CO 2 and temperature. Since microbial activities regulate the balance of carbon sequestered into soil organic matter or remineralized to CO 2 , characterizing their response to these environmental factors is critical to predicting how peatland ecosystems will affect climate-carbon cycle feedbacks. Here we examined in-situ taxon-specific variation in microbial growth under long-term elevated CO 2 and across a gradient of warming treatments in a northern Minnesota peat bog using quantitative stable isotope probing with 18 O-water. Across temperatures, bacterial taxa were grouped according to the excess atom fraction 18 O (EAF) of their genomes, a proxy for DNA replication and hence, growth. Taxon-specific growth across CO 2 and temperature treatments clustered into relatively few response patterns. While a large portion of taxa showed little to no growth under ambient CO 2 , many of the same taxa grew rapidly under elevated CO 2 . We found support for phylogenetic conservation of response patterns among Acidobacteria and Proteobacteria, the two most abundant phyla in our data. Our results suggest certain taxa may be primed for new climate conditions and have a greater influence on carbon cycling with implications for future climate mitigation strategies.

16S amplicon sequencing, Carbon Dioxide (CO2), pea↗

Envisioning urban environments resilient to vector-borne diseases: a protocol to study dengue in Vietnam

Transmitted primarily by Aedes aegypti (Ae. aegypti) and Aedes albopictus (Ae. albopictus), arboviral diseases pose a major global public health threat. Dengue, chikungunya, and zika are increasingly prevalent in Southeast Asia. Among other arboviruses, dengue and zika are becoming more common in Central and South America. Given human encroachment into previously uninhabited, often deforested areas, to provide new housing in regions of population expansion, conceptualizing built urban environments in a novel way is urgently needed to safeguard against the growing climate change-driven threat of vector-borne diseases. By understanding the spread from a One Health perspective, enhanced control and prevention can be achieved. This is particularly important considering that climate change is likely to significantly impact the persistence of ponded water where mosquitoes breed due to increasing temperature and shifting rainfall patterns with regard to magnitude, duration, frequency, and season. Models can incorporate aquatic mosquito stages and adult spatial dynamics when habitats are heterogeneously available, thereby including dispersal and susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) epidemiology. Coupled with human population distribution (density, locations), atmospheric conditions (air temperature, precipitation), and hydrological conditions (soil moisture distribution, ponding persistence in topographic depressions), modeling has improved predictive ability for infection rates. However, it has not informed interventional approaches from an urban environment perspective which considers the role of ponds/lakes that support green spaces, the density of population that enables rapid spread of disease, and varying micro-habitats for various mosquito stages under climate change. Here, for an example of dengue in Vietnam, a preventive and predictive approach to design resilient urban environments is proposed, which uses data from rapidly expanding metropolitan communities to learn continually. This protocol deploys computational approaches including simulation and machine learning/artificial intelligence, underpinned by surveillance and medical data for validation and adaptive learning. Its application may best inform urban planning in low-middle income countries in tropical zones where arboviral pathogens are prevalent.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Middle to Late Holocene Sea Surface Temperature and Productivity Changes in the Northeast Pacific

Variations of the sea surface temperature (SST) and primary productivity in the northeast Pacific have far‐reaching implications. In addition to influencing the regional and global temperature and hydroclimate, these conditions also control marine ecosystems and their services, which subsequently impact regional economies. Yet, our understanding of the variability and controls of northeast Pacific SST and productivity on timescales exceeding observational records remains limited. Here, we use marine sediment records from seven locations, spanning 25.2°N–59.6°N, in the northeast Pacific to characterize the millennial‐scale variability of SST and productivity from 9,000 to 1,000 years BP. We explore the dynamics of their spatiotemporal evolution and compare these data with transient climate model outputs to identify potential drivers. Through a heat budget analysis and optimal fingerprinting analysis, we characterize the spatial pattern of forcings. We find that SST varied spatially in the northeast Pacific, with higher latitudes exhibiting greater magnitude changes than lower latitudes, which differs from previous work suggesting regional synchronicity and coherence during the Holocene. Our analysis did not find evidence for coherent variability of primary producer community nor carbon export, highlighting the difficulty of identifying the complex interactions between environmental conditions, producers, and carbon export. Model‐proxy disagreement demonstrates the need for higher resolution model frameworks, but shows nonetheless that observed variability in the proxy records can be explained by a combination of greenhouse gas and orbital forcing. Here we suggest that the complex SST variations and marine ecosystem responses to forced changes are important factors that can drive disagreements in model projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Changes in the dependence between global precipitation and temperature from observations and model simulations

Precipitation and temperature are physically related to each other with significant dependences that vary with seasons at regional and global scales. The dependence between precipitation and temperature (P–T dependence) plays a central role in characterizing the joint behaviour of the two variables. Along with extensive studies on the variation in the mean, variance, or extremes of precipitation and temperature under global warming, it is of particular interest to understand the climate–change impacts on the covariability of precipitation and temperature. The aim of this study therefore is to assess climate change impacts on the P–T dependence over global land areas from observations, and the performance of the current–generation Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models in simulating these patterns. In general, the CMIP5 models correctly simulate the overall pattern of the P–T dependence (around 87–94% of global land areas). Furthermore, they capture both the sign and change of P–T dependence for relatively small regions (around 41–47% of global land areas). Results from this study may provide useful insights for the future development of climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessing Radiative Feedbacks and Their Contribution to the Arctic Amplification Measured by Various Metrics

Arctic amplification (AA), characterized by a more rapid surface air temperature (SAT) warming in the Arctic than the global average, is a major feature of global climate warming. Various metrics have been used to quantify AA based on SAT anomalies, trends, or variability, and they can yield quite different conclusions regarding the magnitude and temporal patterns of AA. This study examines and compares various AA metrics for their temporal consistency in the region north of 70°N from the early twentieth to the early 21st century using observational data and reanalysis products. We also quantify contributions of different radiative feedback mechanisms to AA based on short-term climate variability in reanalysis and model data using the Kernel-Gregory approach. Albedo and lapse rate feedbacks are positive and comparable, with albedo feedback being the leading contributor for all AA metrics. The net cloud feedback, which has large uncertainties, depends strongly on the data sets and AA metrics used. By quantifying the influence of internal variability on AA and related feedbacks based on global climate model ensemble simulations, we find that water vapor and cloud feedbacks are most heavily affected by internal variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Use of thermal inertia determined by HCMM to predict nocturnal cold prone areas in Florida

Pairs of HCMM day-night thermal infrared (IR) data were selected during the 1978-79 winter to examine patterns of surface temperature and thermal inertia (TI) of peninsular Florida. The GOES and NOAA-6 thermal IR, as well as National Climatic Center temperatures and rainfall, were also used. The HCMM apparent thermal inertia (ATI) images closely corresponded to the general soil map of Florida, based on soil drainage classes. Areas with low ATI overlay well-drained soils, such as deep sands and drained organic soils, whereas with high ATI overlay areas with wetlands and bodies of water. The HCMM ATI images also corresponded well with GOES-detected winter nocturnal cold-prone areas. Use of HCMM data with Carlson's energy balance model showed both high moisture availability (MA) and high thermal inertia (TI) of wetland-type surfaces and low MA and low TI of upland, well-drained soils. Since soil areas with low TI develop higher temperatures during the day, then antecedent patterns of highest maximum daytime surface temperature can also be used to predict nocturnal cold-prone areas in Florida.

Allen, L. H., Jr.↗

Doubling of U.S. Population Exposure to Climate Extremes by 2050

We quantify historical and projected trends in the population exposure to climate extremes as measured by the United States National Center for Environmental Information Climate Extremes Index (CEI). Based on the analyses of the historical observations, we find that the U.S. has already experienced a rise in the occurrence of aggregated extremes in recent decades, consistent with the climate response to historical increases in radiative forcing. Additionally, we find that exposure can be expected to intensify under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, with all counties permanently exceeding the baseline variability in the occurrence of extreme hot days, warm nights, and drought conditions by 2050. As a result, every county in the U.S. is projected to permanently exceed the historical CEI variability (as measured by one standard deviation during the 1981–2005 period). Based on the current population distribution, this unprecedented change implies a yearly exposure to extreme conditions for one in every three people. We find that the increasing trend in exposure to the aggregated extremes is already detectable over much of the U.S., and particularly in the central and eastern U.S. The high correspondence between the pattern of trends in our simulations and observations increases confidence in the projected amplification of population exposure to unprecedented combinations of extreme climate conditions, should greenhouse gas concentrations continue to escalate along their current trajectory.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗