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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Development of an Open-source Alloy Selection and Lifetime Assessment Tool for Structural Components in CSP

Lack of sufficient data on high temperature mechanical and corrosion behavior of structural materials is a huge barrier in the technological maturity of current and future Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) technologies. Rapid development and selection of materials cannot be achieved by expensive and time-consuming acquisition of experimental data. The goal of the proposed work is development of an open-source alloy selection and lifetime prediction tool that will integrate validated physics-based models to describe influence of temperature, alloy composition, environment and component geometry (thickness) on mechanical and corrosion behavior of Ni and Fe-based alloys employed in molten salts/sCO 2 heat exchangers. This one-year project leveraged the extensive dataset on the creep\corrosion behavior of candidate materials generated at ORNL through past projects and input from current collaborations with industrial partners. Based on previous experience and the feedback provided by industry (Brayton Energy and Echogen), three candidate materials of interest, Ni-based alloys 740H, 282 and 625 and application-specific operating conditions (max. temperature of 730 °C and stress of 150 MPa) were identified for the heat exchanger. An extensive corrosion and creep dataset was assimilated for the relevant operating conditions and was supported by detailed characterization of about 100 metallographic cross-sections. The corrosion dataset consisted of scanning electron microscopy images (secondary electron and backscatter electron), measured concentration profiles of alloying elements using energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS), widths of denuded zones (dissolution of strengthening phases) and depths of attack in molten KCl-MgCl 2 mixtures using image analyses. The creep dataset comprised of creep rupture data and creep strain curves (for 740H and 282). Coupled thermodynamic-kinetic microstructure-based models were employed to predict the stress-corrosion induced compositional and phase evolutions in the alloy during operation under the identified operating conditions. Reduced order models were developed from advanced physics-based models and were integrated in a user-friendly alloy selection tool. The corrosion model was able to predict the time to a critical Cr concentration at the oxide/alloy interface (chemical lifetime) within ±10% (1 standard deviation) of typical statistical variation in corrosion tests and EDS measurement errors (±0.5 wt%). The initial scope of the project was limited to predict creep rupture times (Larson-Miller parameter). Based on the input provided by industry, the mechanical lifetime of the heat exchanger is governed by accumulated creep strains (2%) rather than creep rupture. To be able to predict the times to specific creep strains, a more extensive creep model development was undertaken largely beyond the initial scope of the project. The continuum damage mechanics creep model was able to predict times to 2% creep strain, t 2% with an accuracy of ±500h. Ultimately, a screening protocol for SiC was generated to demonstrate the pathway for integration of one of the currently immature materials from a commercial adoption standpoint in the current material evaluation tool. The modeling tool developed here is accessible to the science community and stakeholders and lays the foundation for methods that will enable a rapid evaluation of optimum materials for CSP applications and reliable prediction of material degradation thereby considerably reducing operational costs, improving reliability and increasing overhaul intervals. However, the complete potential of such a tool to include a wider range of materials and test conditions can only be realized with a more concentrated combined experimental-characterization-computation effort.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Functional characterization of prokaryotic dark matter: the road so far and what lies ahead

Eight-hundred thousand to one trillion prokaryotic species may inhabit our planet. Yet, fewer than two-hundred thousand prokaryotic species have been described. This uncharted fraction of microbial diversity, and its undisclosed coding potential, is known as the “microbial dark matter” (MDM). Next-generation sequencing has allowed to collect a massive amount of genome sequence data, leading to unprecedented advances in the field of genomics. Still, harnessing new functional information from the genomes of uncultured prokaryotes is often limited by standard classification methods. These methods often rely on sequence similarity searches against reference genomes from cultured species. This hinders the discovery of unique genetic elements that are missing from the cultivated realm. It also contributes to the accumulation of prokaryotic gene products of unknown function among public sequence data repositories, highlighting the need for new approaches for sequencing data analysis and classification. Increasing evidence indicates that these proteins of unknown function might be a treasure trove of biotechnological potential. Here, we outline the challenges, opportunities, and the potential hidden within the functional dark matter (FDM) of prokaryotes. We also discuss the pitfalls surrounding molecular and computational approaches currently used to probe these uncharted waters, and discuss future opportunities for research and applications.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Origin of ultralow phonon transport and strong anharmonicity in lead-free halide perovskites

All-inorganic lead-free halide double perovskites offer a promising avenue toward non-toxic, stable optoelectronic materials, properties that are missing in their prominent lead-containing counterparts. Their large thermopowers and high carrier mobilities also make them promising for thermoelectric applications. Here, in this work, we present a first-principles study of the lattice vibrations and thermal transport behaviors of Cs 2 SnI 6 and γ-CsSnI 3 , two prototypical compounds in this materials class. We show that conventional static zero temperature density functional theory (DFT) calculations severely underestimate the lattice thermal conductivities (κ l ) of these compounds, indicating the importance of dynamical effects. By calculating anharmonic renormalized phonon dispersions, we show that some optic phonons significantly harden with increasing temperature (T), which reduces the scattering of heat carrying phonons and enhances calculated κ l values when compared with standard zero temperature DFT. Furthermore, we demonstrate that coherence contributions to κ l , arising from wave like phonon tunneling, are important in both compounds. Overall, calculated κ l with temperature-dependent interatomic force constants, built from particle and coherence contributions, are in good agreement with available measured data, for both magnitude and temperature dependence. Large anharmonicity combined with low phonon group velocities yield ultralow values, with room temperature values of 0.26 W/m-K and 0.72 W/m-K predicted for Cs 2 SnI 6 and γ-CsSnI 3 , respectively. We further show that the lattice dynamics of these compounds are highly anharmonic, largely mediated by rotation of the SnI6 octahedra and localized modes originating from Cs rattling motion. These thermal characteristics combined with their previously computed excellent electronic properties make these perovskites promising candidates for optoelectronic and room temperature thermoelectric applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Emergent Properties from Three-Dimensional Assemblies of (Nano)particles in Confined Spaces

The assembly of (nano)particles into compact hierarchical structures yields emergent properties not found in the individual constituents. The formation of these structures relies on a profound knowledge of the nanoscale interactions between (nano)particles, which are often designed by researchers aided by computational studies. These interactions have an effect when the (nano)particles are brought into close proximity, yet relying only on diffusion to reach these closer distances may be inefficient. Recently, physical confinement has emerged as an efficient methodology to increase the volume fraction of (nano)particles, rapidly accelerating the time scale of assembly. Specifically, the high surface area of droplets of one immiscible fluid into another facilitates the controlled removal of the dispersed phase, resulting in spherical, often ordered, (nano)particle assemblies. In this review, we discuss the design strategies, computational approaches, and assembly methods for (nano)particles in confined spaces and the emergent properties therein, such as trigger-directed assembly, lasing behavior, and structural photonic color. Finally, we provide a brief outlook on the current challenges, both experimental and computational, and farther afield application possibilities.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Ab initio-based metric for predicting the protectiveness of surface films in aqueous media

Abstract Materials can passivate by forming surface films when placed in aqueous media. However, these films may or may not be stable, and their stability can be predicted by a metric called the Pilling-Bedworth Ratio (PBR). In this article, we extend PBR to predict passivation protectiveness of multi-component materials. We then evaluate this PBR (ePBR)’s effectiveness by comparing its predictions against experimental studies of 21 multi-element materials of diverse chemistries, with agreement for 17 of the materials. Finally, we encode the methodology to compute ePBR in a web-application to predict the protectiveness of 140,000+ materials in the Materials Project database.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2004

HEC Applications on Columbia Project

NASA's Columbia system consists of a cluster of twenty 512 processor SGI Altix systems. Each of these systems is 3 TFLOP/s in peak performance - approximately the same as the entire compute capability at NAS just one year ago. Each 512p system is a single system image machine with one Linunx O5, one high performance file system, and one globally shared memory. The NAS Terascale Applications Group (TAG) is chartered to assist in scaling NASA's mission critical codes to at least 512p in order to significantly improve emergency response during flight operations, as well as provide significant improvements in the codes. and rate of scientific discovery across the scientifc disciplines within NASA's Missions. Recent accomplishments are 4x improvements to codes in the ocean modeling community, 10x performance improvements in a number of computational fluid dynamics codes used in aero-vehicle design, and 5x improvements in a number of space science codes dealing in extreme physics. The TAG group will continue its scaling work to 2048p and beyond (10240 cpus) as the Columbia system becomes fully operational and the upgrades to the SGI NUMAlink memory fabric are in place. The NUMlink uprades dramatically improve system scalability for a single application. These upgrades will allow a number of codes to execute faster at higher fidelity than ever before on any other system, thus increasing the rate of scientific discovery even further

Taft, Jim↗
DOE OSTI2024

Neutrons in Structural Biology: Challenges and Opportunities (Workshop Report)

Gaining a thorough understanding of biological systems requires building our knowledge about biological processes from the level of atoms and electrons, and up to whole organisms. Such comprehensive knowledge will allow for a predictive understanding of complex biological systems behavior. It will guide us in the design and development of novel therapeutics and vaccines to tackle existing health threats and to prepare for future pandemics, and it will provide information necessary to create new biomaterials and bio-inspired technologies through manipulation of biological macromolecules, their assemblies, single cells and even microorganisms. Reaching these goals will require a synergistic combination of multiple experimental techniques with molecular calculations and predictive simulations, and the design and development of new techniques and capabilities that bridge current knowledge and technology gaps. Neutron scattering provides unique information about the biomacromolecular structure and function and can play a major role in achieving these goals. A workshop was held to engage the scientific community in identifying pressing challenges in biochemistry, structural biology, enzymology and structure-guided drug design not solved with the current neutron scattering technologies or utilizing other structural biology techniques such as X-ray crystallography, NMR, and cryo-EM. The workshop brought together structural biology, biochemistry and computational experts, as well as early career researchers and students, creating a forum for discussing scientific advancement and collaboration. The workshop included a one-day satellite training workshop where graduate students and postdoctoral researchers were educated in the application of neutron crystallography and small-angle scattering in structural biology. Furthermore, the Instrument Scientific Advisory Board (ISAB) for the development of a macromolecular neutron diffractometer at ORNL’s Second Target Station was introduced at the workshop. The major outcome was that neutrons can provide atomic-level understanding of biomacromolecular structure, function and dynamics which is of paramount importance for addressing the identified challenges. Neutron crystallography, in particular, can resolve long-standing biochemical issues regarding enzyme function by delineating the underlying chemistry and can have a major impact on the design of small-molecule therapeutics, especially in combination with molecular computation (quantum chemistry and molecular dynamics simulations) and the emerging artificial intelligence (AI)-assisted drug design technologies. The unique properties of neutrons, including their high sensitivity to hydrogen and their non-destructive nature, make them ideal probes of biological matter. There is a palpable need in the scientific community to expand and enhance the impact of neutron sciences on biology. Neutron crystallography is the only structural biology method capable of determining positions of all hydrogen atoms in proteins, nucleic acids and their complexes at near-physiological temperatures and of unstable species at cryogenic temperatures. Moreover, neutron analysis is non-ionizing, non-destructive and does not perturb the structure or redox chemistry of active site metal centers and clusters in proteins, which can be invaluable for studying radiation-sensitive metalloprotein complexes. Further, neutron energies used in scattering applications are similar to atomic motions, permitting neutron spectroscopies to characterize the dynamics of biomacromolecules on the picosecond to microsecond timescales. The different sensitivities of neutrons to protium (H) and deuterium (D) isotopes of hydrogen allow enhanced visibility of specific parts of biological complexes through isotopic labeling. The impact of neutrons will be most powerful when neutron scattering is combined with complementary experimental techniques that use photons and electrons, and with high-performance computing. The interconnection and mutuality of the experimental and theoretical capabilities will drive discoveries in biological and health sciences to generate more complete picture of complex biological systems. The major limitation in the field of biological neutron crystallography has been signal-to-noise, demanding large samples that are difficult to produce for the majority of biomacromolecules and limiting the applicability of this technique in biological sciences. A neutron crystallography instrument at the Second Target Station will revolutionize biological science with neutrons by engaging a large scientific community of structural biologists, enabling successful neutron diffraction experiments from radically smaller biomacromolecular crystals, resolving unanswered biochemical questions, and meaningfully contributing to rational drug design. The meeting highlighted 10 grand challenges that will be addressed with this advanced capability over the next decade and beyond, and the recommendations required to help address them are given below.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Science-Based Acceleration of the Full Value Stream for Metal Additive Manufacturing: Expedited Powder Development and Additive Manufacturing Deployment in the Areas of Ni-Base Superalloy and Custom Alloy Powders for AM (Final Report)

The overall Science-based Acceleration of the Full Value Stream for Metal Additive Manufacturing (AM): Expedited Powder Development and Additive Manufacturing Deployment (“X-P4AM”) project objective is to drastically reduce the time-to-market barriers for new additive alloys of interest in automotive and aerospace applications, through computational alloy design with rapid screening and down- selection via synthesis of candidate alloys with rapid solidification. The project will also refine the technology in high pressure gas atomization to improve the production of commercial quantities of selected powders with high powder yields and enhanced powder quality. Production of modified nickel-based superalloys and a Ni-containing alloy based on a high entropy composition, enhanced powder production methods, and optimized AM build parameterization provided critical steps in widespread adoption of AM technology for aerospace applications, in this case. The individual backgrounds and capabilities of the Parties are ideally suited to the successful execution of this work. The included work enhanced the Contractors’ AM capabilities, a core competency of the Contractors, and develop a close working relationship with the Participant in the area of nickel-based powder superalloys and custom alloys and their end use.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development of an Enhanced Radiation Physics Toolset for Modeling Spectral and Imaging Signatures in the Warm Dense Matter Experiments

Radiative and atomic processes in plasmas play a critical role in a wide variety of high energy density laboratory plasma (HEDLP) experiments. The emission, absorption, and transport of radiation can strongly affect the overall energetics and evolution of such plasmas. In addition, radiation-based diagnostics – including imaging, spectroscopy, and absolute flux measurements – are widely used to determine key features of HEDLPs. To advance our understanding of HEDLP science, it is vital to have high-fidelity computational physics tools that have well-tested radiation physics modeling, and that are readily accessible to researchers in the HEDLP community. Simulations play an extremely important role for planning and designing the experiments, as well as for post-experiment data analysis. Prism Computational Sciences develops software that is used by National Laboratories and universities (including five members of LaserNetUS network). Prominent examples of such research efforts include z-pinch and short-pulse laser experiments designed to study the basic physics of photoionized plasmas and photoionization fronts, as well as their application to astrophysical plasmas. The main effort was dedicated to the development of non-equilibrium equation-of-state (EOS) models within the HELIOS-CR code, a hydrodynamics code with inline collisional-radiative atomic kinetics. Gas cell experiments on Z and Omega demonstrated the importance of non-equilibrium effects on atomic kinetics in photoionized plasmas. Recent proof-of-principle experiments on Omega EP confirmed the advantages of using a short-pulse laser to create an intense radiation drive, leading to additional experiments being proposed. Photoionization front experiments at LLE also emphasizes the importance of radiation and atomic physics. In both studies, HELIOS-CR simulations played a crucial role in computing non-equilibrium opacities and ionization distributions. A newly developed non-LTE EOS model will help addressing possible non-equilibrium effects, on for example specific heat, and their influence in plasma evolution. Prism also implemented support for open-source atomic data generated by the Flexible Atomic Code. This allows researchers to generate custom atomic tables and use them within the complex framework of simulation tools developed by Prism. The ability to use open-source atomic data would be extremely valuable for hydrodynamics and spectroscopic simulations that include high-Z materials, e.g., picosecond x-ray pulse generation experiments. Support for new atomic structures was fully implemented, and the data can be used by all simulation tools developed at Prism: radiation-hydrodynamics, imaging and spectroscopy, EOS and opacity. The development resulted in a significant fidelity enhancement to the simulations tools developed by Prism that are currently used in other cutting-edge experiments including: opacity measurement experiments performed to both understand the basic radiative and atomic properties of plasmas as well as provide data for more accurately modeling the internal structure of the Sun and other stars, high-intensity short-pulse laser experiments performed to develop short-wavelength light sources for use as backlighters and to investigate fast ignition concepts for inertial fusion energy; capsule implosion experiments designed to develop inertial fusion as an energy source, etc.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Science-Based Acceleration of the Full Value Stream for Metal Additive Manufacturing: Expedited Powder Development and Additive Manufacturing Deployment in the Areas of Ni-Base Superalloy and Custom Alloy Powders for AM

The overall Science-based Acceleration of the Full Value Stream for Metal Additive Manufacturing (AM): Expedited Powder Development and Additive Manufacturing Deployment (“X-P4AM”) project objective is to drastically reduce the time-to-market barriers for new additive alloys of interest in automotive and aerospace applications, through computational alloy design with rapid screening and down- selection via synthesis of candidate alloys with rapid solidification. The project will also refine the technology in high pressure gas atomization to improve the production of commercial quantities of selected powders with high powder yields and enhanced powder quality. Production of modified nickel-based superalloys and a Ni-containing alloy based on a high entropy composition, enhanced powder production methods, and optimized AM build parameterization provided critical steps in widespread adoption of AM technology for aerospace applications, in this case. The individual backgrounds and capabilities of the Parties are ideally suited to the successful execution of this work. The included work enhanced the Contractors’ AM capabilities, a core competency of the Contractors, and develop a close working relationship with the Participant in the areas of nickel-based powder superalloys and custom alloys and their end use.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Science-Based Acceleration of the Full Value Stream for Metal Additive Manufacturing: Expedited Powder Development and Additive Manufacturing Deployment in the Areas of Ni-Base Superalloy and Custom Alloy Powders for AM

The overall Science-based Acceleration of the Full Value Stream for Metal Additive Manufacturing (AM): Expedited Powder Development and Additive Manufacturing Deployment (“X-P4AM”) project objective is to drastically reduce the time-to-market barriers for new additive alloys of interest in automotive and aerospace applications, through computational alloy design with rapid screening and down- selection via synthesis of candidate alloys with rapid solidification. The project will also refine the technology in high pressure gas atomization to improve the production of commercial quantities of selected powders with high powder yields and enhanced powder quality. Production of modified nickel-based superalloys and a Ni-containing alloy based on a high entropy composition, enhanced powder production methods, and optimized AM build parameterization provided critical steps in widespread adoption of AM technology for aerospace applications, in this case. The individual backgrounds and capabilities of the Parties are ideally suited to the successful execution of this work. The included work enhanced the Contractors’ AM capabilities, a core competency of the Contractors, and develop a close working relationship with the Participant in the areas of nickel-based powder superalloys and custom alloys and their end use.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantum Key Distribution Applicability to Smart Grid Cybersecurity Systems

To meet the increasing demand for electricity and to have a more reliable and resilient electric grid against conventional and extreme events, grid modernization is more crucial now than ever before. This will require the development and deployment of devices that provide advanced communication capabilities. The overall efficiency, reliability, and resilience of the smart grid will be inextricably linked to the exchange of information between these devices. Unfortunately, the increased information flow will increase the potential attack surface and introduce new vulnerabilities. While a smarter grid will depend critically on information flow, these benefits will be accrued only if that information can be protected. Nowadays, information is secured in smart grids primarily through cryptography. However, with the increasing number of sophisticated attacks as well as the increasing computational power, the security of the “classical” cryptographic algorithms is threatened. Quantum information science offers solutions to this problem, specifically quantum key distribution (QKD), which provides a means for the generation and secure distribution of symmetric cryptographic keys. The security of QKD stems ultimately from the very nature of quantum physics. In this paper, we investigate the applicability of QKD to the various smart grid sectors and specific use cases. We have identified 18 smart grid use cases of interest for QKD suitability together with 7 QKD factors used for the assessment of the various use cases. For each use case, the impact to security of the loss of confidentiality, integrity, and/or availability is specified. In addition, the suitability of QKD is assessed for each use case with respect to multiple factors.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS1992

The role of under-determined approximations in engineering and science application

There is currently a great deal of interest in using response surfaces in the optimization of aircraft performance. The objective function and/or constraint equations involved in these optimization problems may come from numerous disciplines such as structures, aerodynamics, environmental engineering, etc. In each of these disciplines, the mathematical complexity of the governing equations usually dictates that numerical results be obtained from large computer programs such as a finite element method program. Thus, when performing optimization studies, response surfaces are a convenient way of transferring information from the various disciplines to the optimization algorithm as opposed to bringing all the sundry computer programs together in a massive computer code. Response surfaces offer another advantage in the optimization of aircraft structures. A characteristic of these types of optimization problems is that evaluation of the objective function and response equations (referred to as a functional evaluation) can be very expensive in a computational sense. Because of the computational expense in obtaining functional evaluations, the present study was undertaken to investigate under-determinined approximations. An under-determined approximation is one in which there are fewer training pairs (pieces of information about a function) than there are undetermined parameters (coefficients or weights) associated with the approximation. Both polynomial approximations and neural net approximations were examined. Three main example problems were investigated: (1) a function of one design variable was considered; (2) a function of two design variables was considered; and (3) a 35 bar truss with 4 design variables was considered.

Carpenter, William C.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Implementing Software Resiliency in HPX for Extreme Scale Computing

The DOE Office of Science Exascale Computing Project (ECP) outlines the next milestones in the supercomputing domain. The target computing systems under the project will deliver 10x performance while keeping the power budget under 30 megawatts. With such large machines, the need to make applications resilient has become paramount. The benefits of adding resiliency to mission critical and scientific applications, includes the reduced cost of restarting the failed simulation both in terms of time and power. Most of the current implementation of resiliency at the software level makes use of a Coordinated Checkpoint and Restart (C/R). This technique of resiliency generates a consistent global snapshot, also called a checkpoint. Generating snapshots involves global communication and coordination and is achieved by synchronizing all running processes. The generated checkpoint is then stored in some form of persistent storage. On failure detection, the runtime initiates a global rollback to the most recent previously saved checkpoint. This involves aborting all running processes, rolling them back to the previous state and restarting them.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1990

Applications of ISES for vegetation and land use

Remote sensing relative to applications involving vegetation cover and land use is reviewed to consider the potential benefits to the Earth Observing System (Eos) of a proposed Information Sciences Experiment System (ISES). The ISES concept has been proposed as an onboard experiment and computational resource to support advanced experiments and demonstrations in the information and earth sciences. Embedded in the concept is potential for relieving the data glut problem, enhancing capabilities to meet real-time needs of data users and in-situ researchers, and introducing emerging technology to Eos as the technology matures. These potential benefits are examined in the context of state-of-the-art research activities in image/data processing and management.

Wilson, R. Gale↗
NASA NTRS1989

Establishing a measurement based maintenance improvement program - Lessons learned in the SEL

The Software Engineering Laboratory (SEL) is a joint venture between NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, the University of Maryland, and Computer Sciences Corporation. The use of a goal-oriented approach to measurement to establish a maintenance improvement program within the SEL is discussed. Differences are found to exist between the initial phase of the program and its routine application. This approach is demonstrated through concrete examples, and lessons learned in the establishment of a measurement based, maintenance improvement program are summarized.

Rombach, H. Dieter↗
DOE OSTI2020

4D imaging of lithium-batteries using correlative neutron and X-ray tomography with a virtual unrolling technique

The temporally and spatially resolved tracking of lithium intercalation and electrode degradation processes are crucial for detecting and understanding performance losses during the operation of lithium-batteries. Here, high-throughput X-ray computed tomography has enabled the identification of mechanical degradation processes in a commercial Li/MnO 2 primary battery and the indirect tracking of lithium diffusion; furthermore, complementary neutron computed tomography has identified the direct lithium diffusion process and the electrode wetting by the electrolyte. Virtual electrode unrolling techniques provide a deeper view inside the electrode layers and are used to detect minor fluctuations which are difficult to observe using conventional three dimensional rendering tools. Moreover, the 'unrolling' provides a platform for correlating multi-modal image data which is expected to find wider application in battery science and engineering to study diverse effects e.g. electrode degradation or lithium diffusion blocking during battery cycling.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multifidelity Monte Carlo estimation for efficient uncertainty quantification in climate-related modeling

Abstract. Uncertainties in an output of interest that depends on the solution of a complex system (e.g., of partial differential equations with random inputs) are often, if not nearly ubiquitously, determined in practice using Monte Carlo (MC) estimation. While simple to implement, MC estimation fails to provide reliable information about statistical quantities (such as the expected value of the output of interest) in application settings such as climate modeling, for which obtaining a single realization of the output of interest is a costly endeavor. Specifically, the dilemma encountered is that many samples of the output of interest have to be collected in order to obtain an MC estimator that has sufficient accuracy – so many, in fact, that the available computational budget is not large enough to effect the number of samples needed. To circumvent this dilemma, we consider using multifidelity Monte Carlo (MFMC) estimation which leverages the use of less costly and less accurate surrogate models (such as coarser grids, reduced-order models, simplified physics, and/or interpolants) to achieve, for the same computational budget, higher accuracy compared to that obtained by an MC estimator – or, looking at it another way, an MFMC estimator obtains the same accuracy as the MC estimator at lower computational cost. The key to the efficacy of MFMC estimation is the fact that most of the required computational budget is loaded onto the less costly surrogate models so that very few samples are taken of the more expensive model of interest. We first provide a more detailed discussion about the need to consider an alternative to MC estimation for uncertainty quantification. Subsequently, we present a review, in an abstract setting, of the MFMC approach along with its application to three climate-related benchmark problems as a proof-of-concept exercise.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗