Predicting city-scale daily electricity consumption using data-driven models
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The power distribution system and urban transportation system are two networked system bare their own operation constraints, such peak load in power systems and traffic congestion in transportation system. With the increasing number of electrical vehicles and charging/discharging stations, two systems are become tightly coupled. However, to optimize the two systems target using electrical vehicles as decision control variables cannot be easily solved using a uniformed optimization frame work. Thus we propose a hierarchical optimization approach to address this problem, which consists of a higher and a lower level. In the higher level, the power distribution system and urban transportation system are treated together to minimize the social cost. Meanwhile, the electrical vehicles and the charging/discharging stations are treated as customers to minimize their own expenditures. Then, an equilibrium is designed to determine the optimal charging/discharging price. In the lower level, the models of power distribution system and urban transportation system are developed to provide a detailed analysis. Specifically, in power distribution system, the three-phase unbalanced optimal power flow problem is relaxed with the semidefinite relaxation programming, and solved with alternating direction method of multiplier. A dynamic user equilibrium problem is formulated for the urban transportation system. For electrical vehicles, the state of charge is considered to optimize the charging/discharging schedule and reduce the impacts of power distribution systems. We conducted the simulation and numerical analysis using the IEEE 8500-bus distribution system and the Sioux Falls system with about 10,000 cars. The results demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed approach.
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The integrin heterodimer is a transmembrane protein critical for driving cellular process and is a therapeutic target in the treatment of multiple diseases linked to its malfunction. Activation of integrin involves conformational transitions between bent and extended states. Some of the conformations that are intermediate between bent and extended states of the heterodimer have been experimentally characterized, but the full activation pathways remain unresolved both experimentally due to their transient nature and computationally due to the challenges in simulating rare barrier crossing events in these large molecular systems. An understanding of the activation pathways can provide new fundamental understanding of the biophysical processes associated with the dynamic interconversions between bent and extended states and unveil new putative therapeutic targets. In this work, we apply nonlinear manifold learning to coarse-grained molecular dynamics simulations of bent, extended, and two intermediate states of αI I b β3 integrin to learn a low-dimensional embedding of the configurational phase space. We then train deep generative models to learn an inverse mapping between the low-dimensional embedding and high-dimensional molecular space and use these models to interpolate the molecular configurations constituting the activation pathways between the experimentally characterized states. Furthermore, this work furnishes plausible predictions of integrin activation pathways and reports a generic and transferable multi-scale technique to predict transition pathways for biomolecular systems.
Microtubules (MTs) constitute the largest components of the eukaryotic cytoskeleton and play crucial roles in various cellular processes, including mitosis and intracellular transport. The property allowing MTs to cater to such diverse roles is attributed to dynamic instability, which is coupled to the hydrolysis of GTP (guanosine-5'-triphosphate) to GDP (guanosine-5'-diphosphate) within the β-tubulin monomers. Understanding the equilibrium dynamics and the structural features of both GDP- and GTP-complexed MT tips, especially at an all-atom level, remains challenging for both experimental and computational methods because of their dynamic nature and the prohibitive computational demands of simulating large, many-protein systems. This study employs the “equation-free” multiscale computational method to accelerate the relaxation of all-atom simulations of MT tips toward their putative equilibrium conformation. Using large MT lattice systems (14 protofilaments × 8 heterodimers) comprising ~21-38 million atoms, we applied this multiscale approach to leapfrog through time and nearly double the computational efficiency in realizing relaxed all-atom conformations of GDP- and GTP-complexed MT tips. Commencing from an initial 4 μs unbiased all-atom simulation, we interleave coarse projective “equation-free” jumps with short bursts of all-atom molecular dynamics simulation to realize an additional effective simulation time of 1.875 μs. Our 5.875 μs of effective simulation trajectories for each system expose the subtle yet essential differences in the structures of MT tips as a function of whether β-tubulin monomer is complexed with GDP or GTP, as well as the lateral interactions within the MT tip, offering a refined understanding of features underlying MT dynamic instability. Furthermore, the approach presents a robust and generalizable framework for future explorations of large biomolecular systems at atomic resolution.
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This paper introduces a surrogate modeling scheme based on Grassmannian manifold learning to be used for cost-efficient predictions of high-dimensional stochastic systems. The method exploits subspace-structured features of each solution by projecting it onto a Grassmann manifold. This point-wise linear dimensionality reduction harnesses the structural information to assess the similarity between solutions at different points in the input parameter space. The method utilizes a solution clustering approach in order to identify regions of the parameter space over which solutions are sufficiently similarly such that they can be interpolated on the Grassmannian. In this clustering, the reduced-order solutions are partitioned into disjoint clusters on the Grassmann manifold using the eigen-structure of properly defined Grassmannian kernels and, the Karcher mean of each cluster is estimated. Then, the points in each cluster are projected onto the tangent space with origin at the corresponding Karcher mean using the exponential mapping. For each cluster, a Gaussian process regression model is trained that maps the input parameters of the system to the reduced solution points of the corresponding cluster projected onto the tangent space. Using this Gaussian process model, the full-field solution can be efficiently predicted at any new point in the parameter space. In certain cases, the solution clusters will span disjoint regions of the parameter space. In such cases, for each of the solution clusters we utilize a second, density-based spatial clustering to group their corresponding input parameter points in the Euclidean space. The proposed method is applied to two numerical examples. Here, the first is a nonlinear stochastic ordinary differential equation with uncertain initial conditions where the surrogate is used to predict the time history solution. The second involves modeling of plastic deformation in a model amorphous solid using the Shear Transformation Zone theory of plasticity, where the proposed surrogate is used to predict the full strain field of a material specimen under large shear strains.
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The accuracy of coarse-grained continuum models of dense granular flows is limited by the lack of high-fidelity closure models for granular rheology. One approach to addressing this issue, referred to as the hierarchical multiscale method, is to use a high-fidelity fine-grained model to compute the closure terms needed by the coarse-grained model. The difficulty with this approach is that the overall model can become computationally intractable due to the high computational cost of the high-fidelity model. In this work, we describe a multiscale modeling approach for dense granular flows that utilizes neural networks trained using high-fidelity discrete element method (DEM) simulations to approximate the constitutive granular rheology for a continuum incompressible flow model. Our approach leverages an ensemble of neural networks to estimate predictive uncertainty that allows us to determine whether the rheology at a given point is accurately represented by the neural network model. Additional DEM simulations are only performed when needed, minimizing the number of additional DEM simulations required when updating the rheology. This adaptive coupling significantly reduces the overall computational cost of the approach while controlling the error. In addition, the neural networks are customized to learn regularized rheological behavior to ensure well-posedness of the continuum solution. We first validate the approach using two-dimensional steady-state and decelerating inclined flows. We then demonstrate the efficiency of our approach by modeling three-dimensional sub-aerial granular column collapse for varying initial column aspect ratios, where our multiscale method compares well with the computationally expensive computational fluid dynamics (CFD)-DEM simulation.