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At least 811 records · Page 45

Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project Verification, Validation, and Credibility (VVandC)

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project supports end user requests by employing the Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) and IMM tools as well as subject matter expertise within the Project. The iMED houses data used by the IMM. The IMM is designed to forecast relative changes for a specified set of crew health and mission success risk metrics by using a probabilistic model based on historical data, cohort data, and subject matter expert opinion. A stochastic approach is taken because deterministic results would not appropriately reflect the uncertainty in the IMM inputs. Once the IMM was conceptualized, a plan was needed to rigorously assess input information, framework and code, and output results of the IMM, and ensure that end user requests and requirements were considered during all stages of model development and implementation, as well as lay the foundation for external review and application. METHODS: In 2008, the Project team developed a comprehensive verification and validation (VV) plan, which specified internal and external review criteria encompassing 1) verification of data and IMM structure to ensure proper implementation of the IMM, 2) several validation techniques to confirm that the simulation capability of the IMM appropriately represents occurrences and consequences of medical conditions during space missions, and 3) credibility processes to develop user confidence in the information derived from the IMM. When the NASA-STD-7009 (7009) [1] was published, the Project team updated their verification, validation, and credibility (VVC) project plan to meet 7009 requirements and include 7009 tools in reporting VVC status of the IMM. Construction of these tools included meeting documentation and evidence requirements sufficient to meet external review success criteria. RESULTS: IMM Project VVC updates are compiled recurrently and include updates to the 7009 Compliance and Credibility matrices. Reporting tools have evolved over the lifetime of the IMM Project to better communicate VVC status. This has included refining original 7009 methodology with augmentation from the HRP NASA-STD-7009 Guidance Document working group and the NASA-HDBK-7009 [2]. End user requests and requirements are being satisfied as evidenced by ISS Program acceptance of IMM risk forecasts, transition to an operational model and simulation tool, and completion of service requests from a broad end user consortium including operations, science and technology planning, and exploration planning. IMM v4.0 is slated for operational release in the FY015 and current VVC assessments illustrate the expected VVC status prior to the completion of customer lead external review efforts. CONCLUSIONS: The VVC approach established by the IMM Project of incorporating Project-specific recommended practices and guidelines for implementing the 7009 requirements is comprehensive and includes the involvement of end users at every stage in IMM evolution. Methods and techniques used to quantify the VVC status of the IMM Project represented a critical communication tool in providing clear and concise suitability assessments to IMM customers. These processes have not only received approval from the local NASA community but have also garnered recognition by other federal agencies seeking to develop similar guidelines in the medical modeling community.

Walton, M.↗

OpenSn: A massively parallel, open-source simulation environment for discrete ordinates radiation transport

OpenSn is an open-source, massively parallel deterministic radiation transport code for solving the discrete-ordinates ( S N ) form of the Boltzmann transport equation on unstructured, arbitrary polyhedral meshes. It supports high-fidelity simulations involving steady-state, eigenvalue, and adjoint problems for neutral particles (e.g., neutrons, photons, multi-particles), using the multigroup approximation in energy. OpenSn combines angular discretization via discrete ordinates with a discontinuous Galerkin finite element method (DGFEM) in space, enabling accurate resolution of transport physics on arbitrary polyhedral cells, included locally refined spatial grids. It includes multiple angular quadrature types, including locally refined angular quadratures. Written in modern C++ with a Python API, OpenSn runs efficiently on platforms ranging from laptops to supercomputers. The transport sweep algorithm is implemented using a task-based, directed-acyclic-graph (DAG) approach for each angle and supports asynchronous parallelism across thousands of MPI ranks. Group-set aggregation improves compute intensity, and synthetic acceleration techniques (e.g., diffusion synthetic acceleration, second-moment method) enhance solver convergence. OpenSn has been verified on reactor physics problems and demonstrated excellent weak and strong scaling performance on more than 32,768 processes, making it a versatile and robust platform for large-scale transport simulations in complex geometries.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

High spectral resolution remote sensing of the land

Spectral remote sensing has been practiced on a large scale since the launch of Landsat 1 in 1972. The limited information contained in this spectrally undersampled data set has led to the development of sophisticated statistical-inferential methods for data analysis. The results are usually limited by the availability of ground truth information. Recent technological developments have made it feasible to create narrow-band, contiguous, spectral image data sets that make possible the identification of surface cover materials based on the complete reflectance spectrum for each picture element. This capability will revolutionize the use of remote sensing data and require new deterministic image processing techniques to extract the full information content from the data. Sensors, based on the concept of imaging spectrometry and the new technology of area array infrared detectors, have been constructed and are candidates for Shuttle and space platform flights.

Goetz, A. F. H.↗

Design of aircraft wings subjected to gust loads - A system reliability approach

A method for system reliability-based design of aircraft wing structures is presented. A wing of a light commuter aircraft designed for gust loads according to the FAA regulations is compared with one designed by system reliability optimization. It is shown that system reliability optimization has the potential of improving dramatically the safety and efficiency of new designs. The reasons for the differences between the deterministic and reliability-based designs are explained.

Yang, J. S.↗

Stochastic Modeling and Generation of Partially Polarized or Partially Coherent Electromagnetic Waves

Many new Earth remote-sensing instruments are embracing both the advantages and added complexity that result from interferometric or fully polarimetric operation. To increase instrument understanding and functionality a model of the signals these instruments measure is presented. A stochastic model is used as it recognizes the non-deterministic nature of any real-world measurements while also providing a tractable mathematical framework. A stationary, Gaussian-distributed model structure is proposed. Temporal and spectral correlation measures provide a statistical description of the physical properties of coherence and polarization-state. From this relationship the model is mathematically defined. The model is shown to be unique for any set of physical parameters. A method of realizing the model (necessary for applications such as synthetic calibration-signal generation) is given and computer simulation results are presented. The signals are constructed using the output of a multi-input multi-output linear filter system, driven with white noise.

Davis, Brynmor↗

Spaceflight Validation of Hzetrn Code

HZETRN is being developed as a fast deterministic radiation transport code applicable to neutrons, protons, and multiply charged ions in the space environment. It was recently applied to 50 hours of IMP8 data measured during the August 4, 1972 solar event to map the hourly exposures within the human body under several shield configurations. This calculation required only 18 hours on a VAX 4000 machine. A similar calculation using the Monte Carlo method would have required two years of dedicated computer time. The code has been benchmarked against well documented and tested Monte Carlo proton transport codes with good success. The code will allow important trade studies to be made with relative ease due to the computational speed and will be useful in assessing design alternatives in an integrated system software environment. Since there are no well tested Monte Carlo codes for HZE particles, we have been engaged in flight validation of the HZETRN results. To date we have made comparison with TEPC, CR-39, charge particle telescopes, and Bonner spheres. This broad range of detectors allows us to test a number of functions related to differing physical processes which add to the complicated radiation fields within a spacecraft or the human body, which functions can be calculated by the HZETRN code system. In the present report we will review these results.

Wilson, J. W.↗

Experimental Creep Life Assessment for the Advanced Stirling Convertor Heater Head

The United States Department of Energy is planning to develop the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG) for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) for potential use on future space missions. The ASRG provides substantial efficiency and specific power improvements over radioisotope power systems of heritage designs. The ASRG would use General Purpose Heat Source modules as energy sources and the free-piston Advanced Stirling Convertor (ASC) to convert heat into electrical energy. Lockheed Martin Corporation of Valley Forge, Pennsylvania, is integrating the ASRG systems, and Sunpower, Inc., of Athens, Ohio, is designing and building the ASC. NASA Glenn Research Center of Cleveland, Ohio, manages the Sunpower contract and provides technology development in several areas for the ASC. One area is reliability assessment for the ASC heater head, a critical pressure vessel within which heat is converted into mechanical oscillation of a displacer piston. For high system efficiency, the ASC heater head operates at very high temperature (850 C) and therefore is fabricated from an advanced heat-resistant nickel-based superalloy Microcast MarM-247. Since use of MarM-247 in a thin-walled pressure vessel is atypical, much effort is required to assure that the system will operate reliably for its design life of 17 years. One life-limiting structural response for this application is creep; creep deformation is the accumulation of time-dependent inelastic strain under sustained loading over time. If allowed to progress, the deformation eventually results in creep rupture. Since creep material properties are not available in the open literature, a detailed creep life assessment of the ASC heater head effort is underway. This paper presents an overview of that creep life assessment approach, including the reliability-based creep criteria developed from coupon testing, and the associated heater head deterministic and probabilistic analyses. The approach also includes direct benchmark experimental creep assessment. This element provides high-fidelity creep testing of prototypical heater head test articles to investigate the relevant material issues and multiaxial stress state. Benchmark testing provides required data to evaluate the complex life assessment methodology and to validate that analysis. Results from current benchmark heater head tests and newly developed experimental methods are presented. In the concluding remarks, the test results are shown to compare favorably with the creep strain predictions and are the first experimental evidence for a robust ASC heater head creep life.

Krause, David L.↗

Fluid Dynamics of Axial Turbomachinery: Blade- and Stage-Level Simulations and Models

The current generation of axial turbomachines is the culmination of decades of experience, and detailed understanding of the underlying flow physics has been a key factor for achieving high efficiency and reliability. Driven by advances in numerical methods and relentless growth in computing power, computational fluid dynamics has increasingly provided insights into the rich fluid dynamics involved and how it relates to loss generation. This article presents some of the complex flow phenomena occurring in bladed components of gas turbines and illustrates how simulations have contributed to their understanding and the challenges they pose for modeling. The interaction of key aerodynamic features with deterministic unsteadiness, caused by multiple blade rows, and stochastic unsteadiness, i.e., turbulence, is discussed. High-fidelity simulations of increasingly realistic configurations and models improved with help of machine learning promise to further grow turbomachinery performance and reliability and, thus, help fluid mechanics research have a greater industrial impact.

Mechanics↗

Some Aeronautical Communications Experiments

Classically there has existed an asymmetry between the computing and communicating sides of aerospace systems. Over the past few decades, this asymmetry has shifted to favoring communication link technologies, meaning that advancements in available central processing units (CPUs), storage devices, and internal data buses have stagnated. Indeed, the increased emphasis placed on refining subsystem performance such as with antenna bandwidth in phased arrays, amplifier power efficiency, software defined radio (SDR) flexibility and encoding for data compression and error correction has given rise to successful debuts of multi-gigabit-per-second data return from long space-link distances. These accomplishments are easily quantifiable through link budgets and illustrate what is possible, but also reveal the deficiencies in overall communications capabilities. In particular, the ever-accelerating presence of aerospace vehicles gives rise to newer and larger classes of challenges to address the needs of 21st century systems. Furthermore remote sensing and imaging capabilities have far outpaced our ability to transmit their products to the ground, so we are increasingly dependent on pre-processing and downselection to contend with the communications bottleneck. No longer may we depend upon the constrained logistics in delivering end-to-end data delivery through manual reconfigurations, static event scheduling and execution on a per-vehicle basis, for these methods do not scale and therefore must give way to dynamic, networked approaches with an overall systems view in mind. Emerging mission requirements exhibit a trend toward multiple smaller-scale vehicles working together to perform dissimilar observations. Such operations necessitate sensor fusion across a constellation, and where data processing may be distributed throughout a fairly disconnected network whose topology changes over time in non-deterministic manners. Individual communications link performance is still very relevant to deploying an effective communications system, but now must be embedded within a greater architecture of capability to optimally utilize the bandwidth available from each link to generate an ultimate end-to-end quality of service. The deleterious effects of timing uncertainty across the arrangement presents a challenge to measurement synchronization and delivery, so a successful deployed system needs to be tolerant to the delays inherent in time-of-light between elements and digital processing latencies existing at each node. In this presentation we share the flight test results from a high performance Gbps laser communications terminal evaluated with a suite of store and forward capabilities called High-rate Delay Tolerant Networking (HDTN). The communications payload is operated over Lake Erie across a range of configurations including several convergence layers, and is evaluated to determine recovery time after link disruptions, information loss, efficiency and speed. The effectiveness of utilizing a flying laboratory to increase the Technology Readiness Level (TRL) of an integrated system in relevant environments is discussed, as well as the value of conducting aeronautics experiments to retire risk for technology infusion into space missions. Upcoming flight campaigns will be presented, including opportunities to demonstrate secure command and control, data intensive hyperspectral imaging, quantum link characterization, 4k High Definition (HD) video streaming and internetworked space-ground-aero relay operations. These experiments will pave the way for future missions which will depend upon interoperability across disparate government and privately owned networks, involve contention with uncertain and dynamic timing, and require agility to autonomously configure optimal parameters across networks of ever-increasing size and complexity to ensure data delivery. https://www1.grc.nasa.gov/space/scan/acs/tech-studies/dtn/

Daniel Raible↗

Direct S{sub N} Treatment of the Scattering Source with Phase Functions

In deterministic transport, the angular dependency of the scattering source is described using a so-called phase function. The scattering operator is commonly expressed using a spherical harmonics (P{sub N}) expansion of this phase function. Not only does this require minimal modifications if the problem dimensionality is changed, but it also contains little to no approximation whenever the scattering anisotropy degree is small. An alternative method relying on a discrete ordinates (S{sub N}) approach - essentially computing the angular integral of the phase function with a finite number of weighted directions - is theoretically possible and has shown some advantages. In particular, this method was introduced for neutron elastic scattering and was shown to be more accurate for highly anisotropic group-to-group transfer cross-sections. Benefits were further shown in the case of a collimated beam in highly forward peaked scattering media, particularly reducing the memory usage by storing an angle-to-angle collision matrix rather than a large number of angular moments. In addition, the scattering source was expressed using that same method, the phase function having been previously expanded using Legendre polynomials, in the context of achieving extreme precision while solving the 1D radiative transfer equation. Based on these previous works, we aim at exploring two questions. First, we wish to derive an expression of the phase function in reduced geometries that does not require any more angular quadrature points than for a standard S N calculation. This is particularly relevant because the reduced phase function does not solely depend on the product of the incoming and outgoing directions. Second, we wish to better understand the relationship between the S{sub N} and P{sub N} treatments. We in particular show equivalence if the phase function in the former case is expanded Legendre polynomials. This equivalence is verified numerically and the computational costs of the methods are compared on a test problem involving a Dirac delta phase function.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Entropy generation method to quantify thermal comfort

The present paper presents a thermodynamic approach to assess the quality of human-thermal environment interaction and quantify thermal comfort. The approach involves development of entropy generation term by applying second law of thermodynamics to the combined human-environment system. The entropy generation term combines both human thermal physiological responses and thermal environmental variables to provide an objective measure of thermal comfort. The original concepts and definitions form the basis for establishing the mathematical relationship between thermal comfort and entropy generation term. As a result of logic and deterministic approach, an Objective Thermal Comfort Index (OTCI) is defined and established as a function of entropy generation. In order to verify the entropy-based thermal comfort model, human thermal physiological responses due to changes in ambient conditions are simulated using a well established and validated human thermal model developed at the Institute of Environmental Research of Kansas State University (KSU). The finite element based KSU human thermal computer model is being utilized as a "Computational Environmental Chamber" to conduct series of simulations to examine the human thermal responses to different environmental conditions. The output from the simulation, which include human thermal responses and input data consisting of environmental conditions are fed into the thermal comfort model. Continuous monitoring of thermal comfort in comfortable and extreme environmental conditions is demonstrated. The Objective Thermal Comfort values obtained from the entropy-based model are validated against regression based Predicted Mean Vote (PMV) values. Using the corresponding air temperatures and vapor pressures that were used in the computer simulation in the regression equation generates the PMV values. The preliminary results indicate that the OTCI and PMV values correlate well under ideal conditions. However, an experimental study is needed in the future to fully establish the validity of the OTCI formula and the model. One of the practical applications of this index is that could it be integrated in thermal control systems to develop human-centered environmental control systems for potential use in aircraft, mass transit vehicles, intelligent building systems, and space vehicles.

Models, Biological↗

CUDO: closed-form universal dwell-time optimization for computer-controlled optical surfacing

Precision optical figuring demands fast and accurate dwell time optimization to reach nanometer- and sub-nanometer-level accuracy in next-generation optical systems. We introduce CUDO (closed-form universal dwell-time optimization), the first, to the best of our knowledge, unified closed-form analytical framework that supports both function-form and matrix-form dwell time models in computer-controlled optical surfacing (CCOS). In contrast to traditional methods, which rely on iterative optimization and hyperparameter tuning, our framework derives direct analytical solutions with no adjustable parameters. This approach unifies the solution principles of existing methods within a single mathematical model, delivering three key advantages: (1) accuracy on par with, or superior to, iterative solvers, (2) substantial reduction in computation time, and (3) numerical robustness. Comparative studies with prior art confirm that closed-form solutions achieve equivalent residual error while removing runtime bottlenecks. By simplifying the implementation and enabling real-time, scalable deployment, CUDO establishes a practical foundation for future deterministic fabrication of large-aperture and high-performance optics.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Interpolating Fields of Carbon Monoxide Data Using a Hybrid Statistical-Physical Model

Atmospheric Carbon Monoxide (CO) is a pollutant gas of which the US congress has mandated regular monitoring, and satellite sensors can be used to retrieve regional concentrations of CO over several vertical layers. However, CO at cloudy locations cannot be observed and have to be estimated from the observed data set, resulting in an interpolation problem. The current state-of-the-art solution is to combine prior information, computed by a deterministic physical model, with observations. However, the deterministic model may introduce uncertainties that do not derive from the data. While sharing certain features with the physical model, this paper presents a Bayesian hierarchical model for interpolating CO on a 3-dimensional spatial grid, across time. To our knowledge such a model has not been considered before. The model is applied to a hypothetical air-quality monitoring scenario, and is compared to existing interpolation methods. The results provide motivation for the use of the statistical model for regional to local applications.

Arellano, A. A.↗

GANISP (GAN-assisted Importance SPlitting)

Genealogical importance splitting marches towards a rare event by iteratively selecting and replicating realizations that are headed towards a rare event. The replication step is made difficult when applied to deterministic systems as the initial conditions of the offspring realizations need to be adjusted. Typically, a random perturbation is applied to the offspring. For some cases, this cloning technique may not be adequate and prevent variance reduction in the probability estimate. A GAN-based replication process is proposed to address this limitation. The perturbations applied to the clones are physically consistent instead of being randomly chosen. The proposed method allows reducing the variance in the probability estimation.

Hassanaly, Malik↗

The Transfer of Resonance Line Polarization with Partial Frequency Redistribution in the General Hanle–Zeeman Regime

The spectral line polarization encodes a wealth of information about the thermal and magnetic properties of the solar atmosphere. Modeling the Stokes profiles of strong resonance lines is, however, a complex problem both from a theoretical and computational point of view, especially when partial frequency redistribution (PRD) effects need to be taken into account. In this work, we consider a two-level atom in the presence of magnetic fields of arbitrary intensity (Hanle–Zeeman regime) and orientation, both deterministic and micro-structured. Working within the framework of a rigorous PRD theoretical approach, we have developed a numerical code that solves the full non-LTE radiative transfer problem for polarized radiation, in one-dimensional models of the solar atmosphere, accounting for the combined action of the Hanle and Zeeman effects, as well as for PRD phenomena. After briefly discussing the relevant equations, we describe the iterative method of solution of the problem and the numerical tools that we have developed and implemented. We finally present some illustrative applications to two resonance lines that form at different heights in the solar atmosphere, and provide a detailed physical interpretation of the calculated Stokes profiles. We find that magneto-optical effects have a strong impact on the linear polarization signals that PRD effects produce in the wings of strong resonance lines. We also show that the weak-field approximation has to be used with caution when PRD effects are considered.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Probabilistic-learning-based stochastic surrogate model from small incomplete datasets for nonlinear dynamical systems

We consider a high-dimensional nonlinear computational model of a dynamical system, parameterized by a vector-valued control parameter, in the presence of uncertainties represented by an uncontrolled parameter modeled by a vector-valued random variable, and possibly with stochastic excitation. The objective is to construct a statistical surrogate model where the input is any deterministic value of the control parameter, and the output is a vector-valued observation of the computational model, which is a random vector whose probability measure is updated using a target dataset. To construct this statistical surrogate model, the stochastic response of the computational model must be built, which is a vector-valued time-discretized stochastic process in high dimension, depending on the control parameter. It is assumed that the computational cost of a single evaluation of the deterministic model is high. For the probabilistic updating, we consider a subset of the components of the observation of the computational model, defined as the “identification observation” of the computational model, for which a small target dataset is available. Therefore, the target dataset is associated with partial observability, corresponding to an incomplete data case. Given a prior probability model of the random control and uncontrolled parameters, a training dataset is constructed, consisting of realizations of the random triplet composed of the stochastic response, the random identification observation, and the random control parameter. Since the computational cost of a single evaluation of the deterministic model is assumed to be large, the training dataset is also of small size. The main challenges in this problem are the high dimensionality, partial observability leading to incomplete data in the target dataset for the identification observation of the computational model (which is not sufficient to identify the computational stochastic responses), and the availability of a small training dataset. To address these challenges, we propose a methodology based on statistical methods for constructing necessary reduced representations, direct probabilistic learning under constraints using probabilistic learning on manifolds (PLoM) constrained by the target dataset, and the use of a weak formulation of the Fourier transform of probability measures. Statistical conditioning is also employed to explore the learned dataset. The constructed predictive statistical surrogate model can be implemented in the context of online computation. Here, we apply this approach to a problem of nonlinear stochastic dynamics in high dimensions within the framework of deformable solids mechanics.

Engineering↗

Evaluation of ASCE 4-16 and AISC 43-18 (Draft) for use in the Risk-Informed Performance-Based Seismic Design of Nuclear Power Plant Structures, Systems, and Components

This report describes the assessment of ASCE Standards 4-16 and 43-18 (Draft) for use in the Risk-Informed Performance-Based (RIPB) seismic design of structures, systems, and components (SSCs) at nuclear power plants. This work was performed for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Office of Regulatory Research (RES), to support potential endorsement of these industry standards for the design of nuclear power plants based on the RIPB approach. Currently, the NRC endorses a deterministic design approach for demonstrating the design adequacy of SSCs based on the Standard Review Plan (NUREG-0800) and NRC Regulatory Guides. In the RIPB approach, the design criteria are developed to achieve a target performance goal, which is defined by the annual frequency of occurrence of the design basis earthquake (i.e., Seismic Design Category) and the acceptable level of structural performance (i.e., Limit State) for the SSCs. ASCE 4-16 provides methods for performing a seismic analysis of structures to obtain the seismic response of these structures (e.g., building displacements, accelerations, in-structure response spectra) which are used in the design of the SSCs. It also provides methods for performing seismic analysis of SSCs to determine the seismic demands (e.g. member forces and displacements) needed to design individual SSCs. ASCE 43-18 (Draft) provides the criteria for the seismic design of SSCs using the seismic demands developed in ASCE 4-16. The use of ASCE Standard 43-18 (Draft), along with ASCE 4-16, provides the criteria for the seismic design of the SSCs. ASCE 43-18 (DRAFT) relies on other consensus codes and standards such as ACI 349 for reinforced concrete, AISC/N690 for steel structures, ASME Section III for pressure-retaining mechanical components and Containments, and IEEE-344 for Class 1E equipment. The goal of this technical review was to assess the adequacy of the provisions in these standards for use by the NRC in developing regulatory guidance for design of SSCs in nuclear power plants, based on the RIPB approach. The research reported herein describes the basis for acceptance of the new standards and identifies areas where additional staff guidance is needed for the seismic design of SSCs at nuclear power plants. This technical review has determined that ASCE 4-16 and ASCE 43-18 (Draft) provide an appropriate framework for the seismic design of SSCs at nuclear power plants using a Risk-Informed Performance-Based approach. However, some of the criteria therein warrant exceptions, qualifications, and/or clarifications.

42 ENGINEERING↗