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DOE OSTI2023

A hybrid data-driven and model-based approach for computationally efficient stochastic unit commitment and economic dispatch under wind and solar uncertainty

Stochastic unit commitment (UC) and economic dispatch (ED) are imperative in dealing with uncertainty in renewable forecast for power system operation and planning such that the overall expected production cost is minimized over the planning horizon. However, accurate calculation of the expected production cost requires assessment of a very large number of different scenarios of uncertain renewable resources, such as solar and wind, which is practically infeasible to simulate in real time. This article proposes a hybrid datadriven and physics-based model-predictive paradigm to efficiently solve for stochastic unit commitment and economic dispatch considering uncertainty in wind and solar power forecasts. Here, the novelty of the approach lies in decoupling the production cost estimation from the unit commitment and economic dispatch optimization problems under uncertainty without compromising on the fidelity of the solutions. A data-driven machine learning model is first developed to predict the mean optimal production cost. A physics-based inverse problem is then solved to get the stochastic UC and ED profiles from the expected cost. The presented approach considers, for the first time, solar uncertainty in UC/ED determination and enables efficient and accurate propagation of wind and solar uncertainty to estimate the statistics of the production cost. The effectiveness of the developed approach is demonstrated systematically on a stylized RTS-GMLC single-node system. The overall framework predicts the expected cost 62.5% more accurately than the existing state-of-the-art, on unforeseen days during the entire year, and yields, for the first time, the associated physically consistent UC and ED profiles. The solutions are also shown to be flexible in providing adequate daily reserves to address any statistical deviations from probabilistic power forecasts. The computational time associated with the presented method is only about 10 s compared to over 24 h needed for a conventional stochastic UC/ED determination under uncertainty on an Intel Core i9 processor with 32 GB of RAM.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2020

SubTSBR to tackle high noise and outliers for data-driven discovery of differential equations

Data-driven discovery of differential equations has been an emerging research topic. We propose a novel algorithm subsampling-based threshold sparse Bayesian regression (SubTSBR) to tackle high noise and outliers. The subsampling technique is used for improving the accuracy of the Bayesian learning algorithm. It has two parameters: subsampling size and the number of subsamples. When the subsampling size increases with fixed total sample size, the accuracy of our algorithm goes up and then down. When the number of subsamples increases, the accuracy of our algorithm keeps going up. We demonstrate how to use our algorithm step by step and compare our algorithm with threshold sparse Bayesian regression (TSBR) for the discovery of differential equations. We show that our algorithm produces better results. We also discuss the merits of discovering differential equations from data and demonstrate how to discover models with random initial and boundary condition as well as models with bifurcations. The numerical examples are: (1) predator-prey model with noise, (2) shallow water equations with outliers, (3) heat diffusion with random initial and boundary condition, and (4) fish-harvesting problem with bifurcations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Flow-driven spectral chaos (FSC) method for simulating long-time dynamics of arbitrary-order non-linear stochastic dynamical systems

Uncertainty quantification techniques such as the time-dependent generalized polynomial chaos (TD-gPC) use an adaptive orthogonal basis to better represent the stochastic part of the solution space (aka random function space) in time. However, because the random function space is constructed using tensor products, TD-gPC-based methods are known to suffer from the curse of dimensionality. Here, we introduce a new numerical method called the flow-driven spectral chaos (FSC) which overcomes this curse of dimensionality at the random-function-space level. The proposed method is not only computationally more efficient than existing TD-gPC-based methods but is also far more accurate. The FSC method uses the concept of enriched stochastic flow maps to track the evolution of a finite-dimensional random function space efficiently in time. To transfer the probability information from one random function space to another, two approaches are developed and studied herein. In the first approach, the probability information is transferred in the mean-square sense, whereas in the second approach the transfer is done exactly using a new theorem that was developed for this purpose. The FSC method can quantify uncertainties with high fidelity, especially for the long-time response of stochastic dynamical systems governed by ODEs of arbitrary order. Six representative numerical examples, including a nonlinear problem (the Van-der-Pol oscillator), are presented to demonstrate the performance of the FSC method and corroborate the claims of its superior numerical properties. Finally, a parametric, high-dimensional stochastic problem is used to demonstrate that when the FSC method is used in conjunction with Monte Carlo integration, the curse of dimensionality can be overcome altogether.

(nonlinear) stochastic dynamical systems↗

DOE OSTI2022

Multi-element flow-driven spectral chaos (ME-FSC) method for uncertainty quantification of dynamical systems

The flow-driven spectral chaos (FSC) is a recently developed method for tracking and quantifying uncertainties in the long-time response of stochastic dynamical systems using the spectral approach. The method uses a novel concept called enriched stochastic flow maps as a means to construct an evolving finite-dimensional random function space that is both accurate and computationally efficient in time. In this paper, we present a multi-element version of the FSC method (the ME-FSC method for short) to tackle (mainly) those dynamical systems that are inherently discontinuous over the probability space. In ME-FSC, the random domain is partitioned into several elements, and then the problem is solved separately on each random element using the FSC method. Subsequently, results are aggregated to compute the probability moments of interest using the law of total probability. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the ME-FSC method in dealing with discontinuities and long-time integration of stochastic dynamical systems, four representative numerical examples are presented in this paper, including the Van-der-Pol oscillator problem and the Kraichnan-Orszag three-mode problem. Results show that the ME-FSC method is capable of solving problems that have strong nonlinear dependencies over the probability space, both reliably and at low computational cost.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Data-driven Whitney forms for structure-preserving control volume analysis

Control volume analysis models physics via the exchange of generalized fluxes between subdomains. Here, we introduce a scientific machine learning framework adopting a partition of unity architecture to identify physically-relevant control volumes, with generalized fluxes between subdomains encoded via Whitney forms. The approach provides a differentiable parameterization of geometry which may be trained in an end-to-end fashion to extract reduced models from full field data while exactly preserving physics. The architecture admits a data-driven finite element exterior calculus allowing discovery of mixed finite element spaces with closed form quadrature rules. An equivalence between Whitney forms and graph networks reveals that the geometric problem of control volume learning is equivalent to an unsupervised graph discovery problem. The framework is developed for manifolds in arbitrary dimension, with examples provided for H(div) problems in $\mathbb{R}$ establishing convergence and structure preservation properties. Finally, we consider a lithium-ion battery problem where we discover a reduced finite element space encoding transport pathways from high-fidelity microstructure resolved simulations. The approach reduces the 5.89M finite element simulation to 136 elements while reproducing pressure to under 0.1% error and preserving conservation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Efficient data-driven regression for reduced-order modeling of spatial pattern formation

We present an efficient data-driven regression approach for constructing reduced-order models (ROMs) of reaction-diffusion systems exhibiting pattern formation. The ROMs are learned non-intrusively from available training data of physically accurate numerical simulations. The method can be applied to general nonlinear systems through the use of polynomial model form, while not requiring knowledge of the underlying physical model, governing equations, or numerical solvers. The process of learning ROMs is posed as a low-cost least-squares problem in a reduced-order subspace identified via Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD). Numerical experiments on classical pattern-forming systems–including the Schnakenberg and Mimura–Tsujikawa models–demonstrate that higher-order surrogate models significantly improve prediction accuracy while maintaining low computational cost. The proposed method provides a flexible, non-intrusive model reduction framework, well suited for the analysis of complex spatio-temporal pattern formation phenomena.

Data-driven modeling↗

DOE OSTI2022

Data-driven chaos indicator for nonlinear dynamics and applications on storage ring lattice design

A data-driven chaos indicator concept is introduced to characterize the degree of chaos for nonlinear dynamical systems. The indicator is represented by the prediction accuracy of surrogate models established purely from data. It provides a metric for the predictability of nonlinear motions in a given system. When using the indicator to implement a tune-scan for a quadratic Hénon map, the main resonances and their asymmetric stop-band widths can be identified. When applied to particle transportation in a storage ring, as particle motion becomes more chaotic, its surrogate model prediction accuracy decreases correspondingly. So, the prediction accuracy, acting as a chaos indicator, can be used directly as the objective for nonlinear beam dynamics optimization. This method provides a different perspective on nonlinear beam dynamics and an efficient method for nonlinear lattice optimization. Applications in dynamic aperture optimization are demonstrated as real world examples.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Experimental demonstration of a data-driven control system for subcritical nuclear facility

Here this paper presents an experimental demonstration of a data-driven control system (DCS) designed for the MIT Graphite Exponential Pile (MGEP). The DCS aims to regulate the neutron flux profile such that symmetry is preserved. Neutron flux perturbations are introduced into the MGEP to test the DCS's capabilities by the movement of an initiating control rod (ICR). To realize this functionality, a control system that relies on an artificial neural network (ANN) was developed, and then demonstrated on the MGEP. A Helium-3 ( 3 He) neutron detector and dual control rods, including their moving mechanisms, were fabricated. The perturbed flux profile was monitored by the moving neutron detector. The prediction accuracy of the neural network (NN) was examined and the DCS response was presented. Our results show that neural network regression model trained by experimental data can achieve a prediction error of less than 2.5 cm with a 95% confidence interval. The demonstration experiment also shows that a perturbation of the ICR can be captured by the control system and flux symmetry can be maintained within 1% after the response of the responding control rod (RCR).

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Fractal analysis on Ag 2 O thin film using a data-driven approach

The synthesis of fractal Ag oxide (Ag 2 O) on the surface of Ag thin film has been achieved at room temperature by using Synchrotron X-ray irradiation. We have performed an automated quantitative analysis of a batch of 1879 fractal Ag 2 O patterns in a scanning electron microscopy (SEM) image within a radius of 2000 mm outward from the center of the X-ray beam. The morphology is similar to that of the diffusion-limited cluster aggregation (DLCA) model. The fractal dimension (D) of Ag 2 O is between 1.7 and 1.5 from the center to the edge. The area distribution density of fractal Ag 2 O follows a quadratic function with radius R. It is found that the branches’ number of fractal Ag 2 O is a key factor affecting the fractal dimension. The more branches the fractal has, the greater the D is. This is the first time that Ag fractal has been investigated by combining automated data analysis methods with batch experimental data. This data-driven approach provides a new research perspective for rationally regulating materials’ fractal morphology and performance.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

High-throughput solubility determination for data-driven materials design and discovery in redox flow battery research

Solubility is crucial for redox flow batteries because it affects their energy density. A data-driven approach based on artificial intelligence/machine learning models can accelerate the development of highly soluble redox-active materials, but the lack of relevant, large-quantity data makes accurate solubility prediction difficult. To overcome this deficiency, we developed a high-throughput experimentation process that combines a robotically controlled platform with high-throughput methodology to collect large-scale and high-quality solubility data. We demonstrate the potential utility and applicability of this high-throughput process by measuring the aqueous and non-aqueous solubilities of redox-active materials and studying the effect of additives on their solubilities for both aqueous and non-aqueous redox flow battery applications. A redox flow battery based on our optimized negative electrolyte formulation and a ferrocyanide-positive electrolyte offers highly stable performance over 18 days (>100 cycles) with consistent capacity and a 24% boost in energy density.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Automated control and optimization of laser-driven ion acceleration

The interaction of relativistically intense lasers with opaque targets represents a highly non-linear, multi-dimensional parameter space. This limits the utility of sequential 1D scanning of experimental parameters for the optimization of secondary radiation, although to-date this has been the accepted methodology due to low data acquisition rates. High repetition-rate (HRR) lasers augmented by machine learning present a valuable opportunity for efficient source optimization. Here, an automated, HRR-compatible system produced high-fidelity parameter scans, revealing the influence of laser intensity on target pre-heating and proton generation. A closed-loop Bayesian optimization of maximum proton energy, through control of the laser wavefront and target position, produced proton beams with equivalent maximum energy to manually optimized laser pulses but using only 60% of the laser energy. This demonstration of automated optimization of laser-driven proton beams is a crucial step towards deeper physical insight and the construction of future radiation sources.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Taylor dispersion in osmotically driven laminar flows in phloem

Sucrose is among the main products of photosynthesis that are deemed necessary for plant growth and survival. It is produced in the mesophyll cells of leaves and translocated to different parts of the plant through the phloem. Progress in understanding this transport process remains fraught with experimental difficulties, thereby prompting interest in theoretical approaches and laboratory studies. The Münch pressure and mass flow model is one of the accepted hypotheses describing the physics of sucrose transport in the phloem. It is based on osmosis creating an energy potential difference between the source and the sink. The flow responding to this energy potential is assumed laminar and described by the Hagen–Poiseuille equation. This study revisits such osmotically driven flows in tubes with membrane walls by including the effects of Taylor dispersion on mass transport. This effect has been overlooked in phloem flow studies. Taylor dispersion can increase the effective transport of solutes by increasing the apparent diffusion coefficient. It is shown that, in addition to the conventional diffusive correction derived for impermeable tube walls, a new adjustment to the mean advective terms arises because of osmotic effects. Because the molecular Schmidt number is very large for sucrose in water, the sucrose front speed and travel times have a direct dependence on the Péclet number for different ranges of the Münch number. Fially, this study establishes upper limits on expected Taylor dispersion enhancement of sucrose transport.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Modulating the Electron Affinity of Small Bipyridyl Molecules on Single Gold Nanoparticles for Plasmon-Driven Electron Transfer

Developing controlled platforms for plasmon-driven chemistry is of great importance in catalytic reactions at the nanoscale. We report anion radical formation for five bipyridyl complexes of varying degrees of electron affinity utilizing optically fo-cused intraband (594 nm) and interband (532 nm) pump excitation of single gold nanoparticles. The surface-enhanced Raman scattering (SERS) of anion radicals for the five non-resonant adsorbed molecules 2,2’-bipyridine (22BPY), 4,4’-bipyridine (44BPY), trans-1,2-bis(4-pyridyl)ethylene (BPE), 1,2-bis(4-pyridyl)acetylene (BPA), and 1,2-bis(4-pyridyl)ethane (BPEt) were detected using localized surface-plasmon resonance (LSPR) excitation with 785 nm. The electron affinity of the five bipyridyl complexes were determined using electrochemistry. Molecules with low electron affinity experienced high-er instances of radical anion formation under a plasmon-coupled intraband electron transfer excitation (594 nm) whereas molecules with high electron affinity showed a preference for anion radical formation under direct interband electron trans-fer excitation (532 nm). The lowest unoccupied molecular orbital (LUMO) energy levels for low electron affinity surface-bound molecules (22BPY, BPEt) are on average ~0.43 eV higher for high electron affinity surface-bound molecules (BPA, BPE, 44BPY) as calculated using time-dependent density functional theory, elucidating the importance of plasmon coupling to energy levels that facilitate charge transfer pathways. We also show the ability to ‘activate’ high vs low electron affinity single nanoparticles with the choice of pump excitation wavelength. The findings show the complex interplay between molecular electron affinity, orbital overlap with the density of states of the plasmonic metal, and excitation energetics of the pump laser wavelength. Potential applications of this work include enhanced control over molecular scale catalysis, biosensor design, and solar energy capture.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

In-Situ Atomic-Scale Revelation of Amorphous Metallic Iron Formation during Hydrogen-Driven Reduction of Iron Oxides

The transition to hydrogen as a green reductant in metal production is critical for decarbonizing the metallurgical industry, yet atomic-scale mechanisms governing reduction pathways and phase evolution remain unresolved. Using in-situ environmental transmission electron microscopy, we identify a hidden pathway that reveals dynamic formation of amorphous metallic iron (Fe) during the hydrogen-driven reduction of ferrous oxides of Fe 3 O 4 and FeO. Real-time imaging uncovers three coexisting transformation routes: (i) Fe 3 O 4 → FeO, (ii) Fe 3 O 4 → amorphous Fe, and (iii) FeO → amorphous Fe. The resulting amorphous Fe exhibits fluid-like mobility, enabling its rapid aggregation and crystallization into core-shell nanostructures, with a crystalline core enveloped by an amorphous shell. Complementary ab initio molecular dynamics simulations trace the amorphous Fe formation to interfacial strain at the metal/oxide interfaces, where large lattice mismatches destabilize the metal lattice during initial metallization. This interplay between thermodynamics and kinetics governs phase evolution: thermodynamics favors a self-limiting amorphous Fe overlayer, while rapid oxide reduction kinetics drives amorphous overgrowth. Our findings demonstrate that amorphous intermediates bypass rate-limiting crystalline steps, providing mechanistic insights to optimize H 2 -based processes for sustainable steelmaking. In conclusion, these insights bridge the gap between macroscopic process engineering and atomic-scale dynamics, with broader implications for catalysis and nanostructured material synthesis, where oxide reduction pathways critically shape functional phases and microstructures.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Non-thermal electron acceleration from magnetically driven reconnection in a laboratory plasma

Magnetic reconnection rapidly converts magnetic energy into some combination of plasma flow energy, thermal energy and non-thermal energetic particles. Various reconnection acceleration mechanisms have been theoretically proposed and numerically studied in different collisionless and low-β environments, where β refers to the plasma-to-magnetic pressure ratio. These mechanisms include Fermi acceleration, betatron acceleration, parallel electric field acceleration along magnetic fields and direct acceleration by the reconnection electric field. However, none of them have been experimentally confirmed, as the direct observation of non-thermal particle acceleration in laboratory experiments has been difficult due to short Debye lengths for in situ measurements and short mean free paths for ex situ measurements. Here we report the direct measurement of accelerated non-thermal electrons from magnetically driven reconnection at low β in experiments using a laser-powered capacitor coil platform. We use kilojoule lasers to drive parallel currents to reconnect megagauss-level magnetic fields in a quasi-axisymmetric geometry. The angular dependence of the measured electron energy spectrum and the resulting accelerated energies, supported by particle-in-cell simulations, indicate that the mechanism of direct electric field acceleration by the out-of-plane reconnection electric field is at work. Scaled energies using this mechanism show direct relevance to astrophysical observations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

A fresh perspective on the role of band bending, and related contributors, in light-driven production of electricity and chemicals

It is widely known that semiconductor-based solar energy conversion could power our planet. This is in part because high-quality semiconductor structures are unrivalled in their ability to separate photogenerated electrons and holes. One effective approach to achieving this photoinduced charge separation relies on a phenomenon known as “band bending”. But details to justify why band bending results in photoinduced charge separation are more complex than often appreciated. This underappreciation is an impediment to the rational, hypothesis-driven design of next-generation approaches to solar energy conversion. Herein we show, by means of derivations rooted in physical chemistry, that several phenomena – not just band bending – can facilitate photoinduced charge separation, and that each is influenced by nonequilibrium species concentration and a parameter, such as diffusion coefficient or rate coefficient, that introduces dynamics. To help visualize the impact of each phenomenon, we introduce plots that depict their contributions as free energy, force, flux, force constant, and rate. We reveal that spatial dopant distributions that define band bending are predictors of initial photogenerated species transport rates. But charge separation alone does not guarantee high-efficiency operation. A photogenerated change in energy that is freely available to do useful work is also essential, and is strongly dependent on semiconductor optical properties and reaction kinetics. Notably, this information reveals that specificity of interfacial chemical reactions – even when they are not preceded by charge separation elsewhere – can result in efficient solar energy conversion. We expect that this tutorial will guide researchers in their pursuit to uncover new mechanisms for light to perform useful work.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

On the effect of mixing-driven vaporization in a homogeneous relaxation modeling framework

The homogeneous relaxation model (HRM) is one of the most widely used models to describe the liquid–gas phase transition in multiphase flows due to the occurrence of cavitation. However, in its original formulation, the HRM does not account for the presence of ambient gas species, which generally limits its applicability to the injector's internal flow where ambient gases are negligible. In this work, a mixing-driven vaporization (MDV) model was developed to extend the capability of the HRM in handling the mixing effect in the regions external to the nozzle, where vapor–liquid equilibrium for multi-species mixtures of fuel and ambient gas is considered. Herein, to assess the model performance, simulations of the Engine Combustion Network's Spray G injector were performed with the HRM and the MDV model under both flash-boiling and evaporating conditions. It was found that the MDV model led to a better match against x-ray measurements of fuel density in the near-nozzle region. In contrast to the HRM, the MDV model was able to reproduce the vaporization process in the mixing zone at the edge of the fuel jet, which aligns with the expected physics. This resulted in substantial differences in the prediction of other flow characteristics such as mixture temperature and pressure. Furthermore, this work demonstrates that evaporation timescales have a considerable effect on the MDV model's predictions, as shown by a parametric study in which a time factor was introduced to mimic the effect of different timescales due to different phase change mechanisms.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2022

Origin for electrochemically driven phase transformation in the oxygen electrode for a solid oxide cell

The next generation of fuel cells, electrolyzers, and batteries requires higher power, faster kinetics, and larger energy density, which necessitate the use of compositionally complex oxides to achieve multifunctionalities and activity. These compositionally complex oxides may change their phases and structures during an electrochemical process—a so-called “electrochemically driven phase transformation.” The origin for such a phase change has remained obscure. The aim of this paper is to present an experimental study and a theoretical analysis of phase evolution in praseodymium nickelates. Nickelate-based electrodes show up to 60 times greater phase transformation during operation when compared with thermally annealed ones. Theoretical analysis suggests that the presence of a reduced oxygen partial pressure at the interface between the oxygen electrode and the electrolyte is the origin for the phase change in an oxygen electrode. Guided by the theory, the addition of the electronic conduction in the interface layer leads to the significant suppression of phase change while improving cell performance and performance stability.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗