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DOE OSTI2020

Real Time Applications Using Linear State Estimation Technology (RTA/LSE)

Electric Power Group, LLC (EPG) was awarded DOE OE0000849 to design, develop, and demonstrate three real-time applications for monitoring power system stability. The applications use phasor measurements and processing by a linear state estimator (LSE) to improve system visibility and accuracy. These applications leverage the large and expanding phasor measurement systems being deployed by utilities throughout the world, and specifically in the United States. Phasor measurements provide a much more detailed view of the power systems than traditional SCADA systems, so can provide better visibility of events and an early warning of developing problems. These three applications are real-time contingency analysis (RTCA), area angle monitoring (AAM), and a voltage stability index (VSI). The project was fully completed as proposed. All three applications were successfully implemented and demonstrated. There were challenges the caused project delays, however. While the RTCA is based on well-known concepts and readily available tools, its deployment using phasor measurements meant it needed to be adapted to sometimes sparse measurements and limited coverage areas. EPG met these challenges with extensive modeling and testing. The AAM is based on unproven research, so EPG had to deal with a lot of unknowns and develop additional methods for practical implementation. These activities took more time than anticipated, so required extra time for development. In addition, there was difficulty getting adequate measurement locations for successful deployment and utility installation delays. Consequently, the project required a time extension to complete. These three real-time applications, RTCA, AAM, and VSI, use only phasor measurement input. Since they do not require the EMS or other measurement systems, they can serve as a backup and security check for the EMS. Phasor measurements are validated and extended by an LSE. The LSE will always produce an output even when some inputs are impaired, so the RT applications will operate even when the EMS state estimator does not converge and the applications it supports cannot function. Consequently, these RT applications can provide valuable additional reliability for control center operation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Stellarator Simplification using Permanent Magnets (PM4Stell)

This Report describes the design and prototyping of an array of rare-Earth permanent magnets to form a stellarator. This effort was motivated by the hypothesis that the usage of permanent magnets, rather than electromagnetic coils with complex geometry, could reduce the cost of stellarator construction and thereby make increase the feasibility of the stellarator as a technology for a fusion-based power plant. In this project, we have developed novel methods for specifying the positions, shapes, and polarizations of the magnets in the array, and have developed designs for mounting structures and tooling for assembly. We have also performed detailed finite-element modeling to qualify the accuracy of the magnetic field produced by the magnet array as designed, and to confirm that the structure can withstand the forces between the magnets. We have also developed techniques for measuring the magnetic field produced by the array once constructed, as well as for correcting errors in the field arising from misalignments and offsets within the tolerances for mounting and fabrication. Finally, we have constructed a tabletop prototype of a section of the array to qualify the concept for assembling and mounting magnets within the array.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Stellarator Simplification using Permanent Magnets (PM4Stell)

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Workshop Report for Next-Gen AI for Proliferation Detection: Accelerating the Development and Use of Explainability Methods to Design AI Systems Suitable for Nonproliferation Mission Applications

Artificial intelligence (AI) promises powerful new capabilities in an expansive array of applications. One area is proliferation detection, where AI can provide transformative tools to achieve objectives currently inaccessible using conventional methods. In particular, AI affords the opportunity to use new indicators and process massive amounts of heterogeneous data that can increase sensitivity to proliferant activities and push proliferation detection to the earliest possible stages. However, existing AI tools are not ready to achieve such potential, falling short in regard to some important considerations involved in proliferation detection. One crucial aspect that requires improvement is the explainability of the most powerful AI algorithms (i.e., understanding how the algorithms actually arrive at their conclusions)-the lack of which prevents widespread adoption in national security missions. The Data Science and AI portfolio within the National Nuclear Security Administration's Office of Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation Research and Development is driving the development of next-generation AI for proliferation detection through the expertise and work of the national laboratories and partners in academia. The "Next-Gen AI for Proliferation Detection: Accelerating the Development and Use of Explainability Methods to Design AI Systems Suitable for Nonproliferation Mission Applications" workshop aimed to further this objective. The meeting was held virtually on Sept. 15-16, 2020 and included more than 170 participants, primarily from the national laboratories with additional contributions from university researchers and mission partners. Each day included a keynote presentation, four technical presentations about cutting-edge research in explainability, and a panel to explore considerations in applying explainability and developing AI systems that can accelerate the transition of emerging AI technologies among partners and end users to solve critical mission questions. This report summarizes the Next-Gen AI for Proliferation Detection workshop's content and findings.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2025

The development and application of the stirred‐reactor coupon analysis (SRCA) test method

A new technique, termed the stirred‐reactor coupon analysis (SRCA) method, has been developed to measure the rate of glass dissolution in forward‐rate conditions. Monolithic glass coupons are partially masked with an inert material before placement in a large volume of well‐mixed solution with known chemistry and temperature for a predetermined duration. After the test, the mask is removed, and the difference in step height between the protected area and the exposed corroded portions of the sample coupon is measured to determine the extent of glass dissolution. The step height is converted to a rate measurement using the test duration and glass density. Test parameters such as sample surface preparation and test duration were evaluated to determine their effects on the measured rates. Additionally, results from an interlaboratory study (ILS) consisting of 12 laboratories from 11 different institutions are presented, where each laboratory performed 12 independent tests. When removing experimental outlier data, the 95% reproducibility limits for the SRCA method has no statistical difference with previously published standardized test methods used to determine the forward rate of glass dissolution. Overall, this paper describes steps necessary to perform the test method and provides the statistical calculations to evaluate test accuracy.

chemical durability↗

DOE OSTI2023

Semi-Implicit Computation of Fast Modes in a Scheme Integrating Slow Modes by a Leapfrog Method Based on a Selective Implicit Time Filter

Abstract A scheme for integration of atmospheric equations containing terms with differing time scales is developed. The method employs a filtered leapfrog scheme utilizing a fourth-order implicit time filter with one function evaluation per time step to compute slow-propagating phenomena such as advection and rotation. The terms involving fast-propagating modes are handled implicitly with an unconditionally stable method that permits application of larger time steps and faster computations compared to fully explicit treatment. Implementation using explicit and recurrent formulation is provided. Stability analysis demonstrates that the method is conditionally stable for any combination of frequencies involved in the slow and fast terms as they approach the origin. The implicit filter used in the method damps the computational modes without noticeably sacrificing the accuracy of the physical mode. TheO[(Δt 4 )] accuracy for amplitude errors achieved by the implicitly filtered leapfrog is preserved in applications where terms responsible for fast propagation are integrated with a semi-implicit method. Detailed formulation of the method for soundproof nonhydrostatic anelastic equations is provided. Procedures for implementation in global spectral shallow-water models are also given. Examples comparing numerical and analytical solutions for linear gravity waves demonstrate the accuracy of the scheme. The performance is also shown in more practical nonlinear applications, where numerical solutions accomplished by the method are evaluated against those computed from a scheme where the slow terms are handled by the third-order Runge–Kutta scheme. It demonstrates that the method is able to accurately resolve fine-scale dynamics of Kelvin–Helmholtz shear instabilities, the evolution of density current, and nonlinear drifts of twin tropical cyclones.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2022

Production Agency Quality Assurance Management Execution Strategy [Thesis]

There are multiple federal directives that Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) must follow for the proper implementation of quality assurance, strategic planning, and execution of manufacturing and surveillance operations. Recent assessments identified that manufacturing in all processing areas is dynamic due to influencing scope changes, design modifications, funding adjustments, and staff attrition. In response, this project was started to develop a comprehensive PAQ execution strategy to support the success of LANL’s manufacturing mission. This project’s method for developing an updated architecture was to create an integrated, flexible, reliable, and agile strategic process. The execution plan has five deliverables: 1) an integrated schedule view of PAQ work scope, 2) a resource management plan that aligns with the required scope, 3) a metrics monitoring dashboard, 4) a project management plan for sustaining NAP 401.1A implementation, and 5) a risk management plan. The research design is a mixed-method approach focused on data collection for each deliverable. The methodology entails qualitative and quantitative research, metrics monitoring, data analysis, and the creation of a dashboard. The qualitative methods used include literature reviews and interviews. The quantitative methods include resource, financial, schedule and survey data analysis. Preliminary and final results were peer reviewed by subject matter experts both within the ALDWP organization and deployed support.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Stochastically estimated covariance matrices for independent and cumulative fission yields in the ENDF/B-VIII.0 and JEFF-3.3 evaluations

A Monte-Carlo method for the generation of correlation and covariance matrices for independent and cumulative fission yields has been developed. The method uses a constrained Monte-Carlo resampling structure in order to vary evaluated fission yield libraries in a way that meets basic conservation principles. This results in the generation of correlation/covariance matrices with limited model bias and uncertainty; the matrices are primarily reflective of the evaluated fission yield uncertainties and correlations that arise from the evaluation process. This method has been applied to generate correlation and covariance matrices for all of the fissioning systems of the ENDF/B-VIII.0 and JEFF-3.3 evaluations, marking the first time such matrices have been generated for all of these systems. These covariance matrices have been published online for immediate public use. These correlation and covariance matrices can be used to improve uncertainty estimation in calculations of reactor antineutrino emission rates, decay heat problems, and nuclear forensics.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian reduced-order deep learning surrogate model for dynamic systems described by partial differential equations

We propose a reduced-order deep-learning surrogate model for dynamic systems described by time-dependent partial differential equations. This method employs space–time Karhunen–Loève expansions (KLEs) of the state variables and space-dependent KLEs of space-varying parameters to identify the reduced (latent) dimensions. Subsequently, a deep neural network (DNN) is used to map the parameter latent space to the state variable latent space. An approximate Bayesian method is developed for uncertainty quantification (UQ) in the proposed KL-DNN surrogate model. The KL-DNN method is tested for the linear advection–diffusion and nonlinear diffusion equations, and the Bayesian approach for UQ is compared with the deep ensembling (DE) approach, commonly used for quantifying uncertainty in DNN models. It was found that the approximate Bayesian method provides a more informative distribution of the PDE solutions in terms of the coverage of the reference PDE solutions (the percentage of nodes where the reference solution is within the confidence interval predicted by the UQ methods) and log predictive probability. The DE method is found to underestimate uncertainty and introduce bias. For the nonlinear diffusion equation, we compare the KL-DNN method with the Fourier Neural Operator (FNO) method and find that KL-DNN is 10% more accurate and needs less training time than the FNO method.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Sparge Sampling of Molten Salts for Online Monitoring via Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy

A method was developed to sample molten salts by sparging to generate and transport aerosols to an isolated instrument for compositional analysis by laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS). Real-time monitoring of molten salt composition is critical to developing molten salt nuclear reactors, which offer enhanced safety and efficiency. In this article, the sparge sampling method is described and compared with sampling using a Collison nebulizer. The size distribution and transport of aerosols produced from molten eutectic NaNO 3 –KNO 3 salt were compared for multiple gas flow rates (75–1200 mL min –1 ) and transport distances (0.68–2.61 m). Both methods produced aerosols ranging from 0.5 to 5.0 μm determined using a cascade impactor. Aerosols were effectively transported without pre- or trace-heating of gas lines, but transport efficiency was reduced by the formation of agglomerates. Sparge sampling was found to use less sample and less gas than a Collison nebulizer while producing a more concentrated aerosol stream (up to 5 μg L –1 ). The effects of laser energy and delay time on the signal quality of LIBS measurements of these aerosols were also studied. High energy and short delay times were found to enhance signal and repeatability, whereas signal-to-background and signal-to-noise ratios were highest at low energy and longer delay times. The capabilities of this system for online monitoring of molten salts were demonstrated with calibrations for Sr and Li with relative standard deviations of 2.6% and 1.5% and limits of detection of 380 and 180 μg g –1 , respectively.

Aerosols↗

DOE OSTI2020

Rossi-alpha Uncertainty Quantification by Analytic, Bootstrap, and Sample Methods to Inform Fitting Best Practices

The prompt neutron period (the negative reciprocal of the prompt neutron decay constant) can be estimated using the Rossi-alpha technique that is predicated on fitting Rossi alpha histograms and of interest in nuclear criticality safety and nonproliferation. The histograms are traditionally fit with a one-exponential model; however, recent work has proposed a two-exponential model to account for reflector induced phenomenon. Until recently, the uncertainty quantification for either model was inadequate (inaccurate and demanded large measurement times). Measurement uncertainty quantification by sample and analytic methods was developed and validated in Ref. The purpose of this transaction is to (i) validate a new bootstrap method by comparing bin-by-bin error bar estimates and (ii) demonstrate how to choose bin widths and reset times to optimize precision and accuracy.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Hybrid Analytics Solution to Improve Coal Power Plant Operations

This project focused on developing advanced methods for thermal performance monitoring of a coal-fueled power plant. The specific goal was to develop and demonstrate a new thermal performance monitoring approach using a hybrid model that integrates a physics-based heat balance model with a machine learning-based pattern recognition model. The hybrid model enables increased accuracy and scope of the thermal analysis and an improved ability to monitor and detect changes in plant operation. This new approach takes full advantage of the individual model capabilities and creates an important new set of capabilities not previously possible using the two types of models separately. Using the heat balance model, a rich set of derived parameters (virtual sensors) are calculated from the measured plant operating data at each time point. The combined measured and derived data values are used by machine learning algorithms to create pattern recognition models over the range of normal unit operation. To create the monitoring models, historical data from normal operation of the plant is first processed by the heat balance model to compute the derived parameter data. The result is a greatly expanded set of normal operating data that can be used as input to create the pattern recognition model. Once the models are calibrated for normal operation, the hybrid model is suitable for use in continuous online monitoring. During online monitoring, new plant operating data is processed first by the heat balance model and then by the pattern recognition model. Results from the pattern recognition model quantify the deviation of each measured or derived parameter from its expected value in normal operation. The hybrid models can detect abnormal changes in plant operating data with very high accuracy and sensitivity. When abnormal behavior is detected, alerts are generated automatically for evaluation by the plant monitoring staff. The new hybrid solution product was developed and verified in the performance of the project. The hybrid solution was tested first in a simulation environment that mimicked the plant data systems and infrastructure used by U.S. power generating plants and utilities. The hybrid solution was then deployed for real-time, online monitoring of an operating coal-fueled power plant at a field test site. Field testing demonstrated that all hybrid solution development objectives were accomplished. The project work was based on combining the capabilities of two existing software products to create the new hybrid solution product. One of these was the existing MapEx® heat balance product and the other was the existing SureSense® advanced pattern recognition product. Each of these separate products was assessed to be at a Technology Readiness Level (TRL) of 9 at the start of the effort. The hybrid solution product was assessed to be at a TRL of 2 at the start of the project based on early feasibility work by the project team. At completion of the field testing performed in the project, the hybrid solution product was assessed to be at a TRL of 7. The project team expects that the hybrid solution product will be deployed commercially and will achieve a TRL of 9 within one year after completion of the project.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2023

Attack Surface Analysis of the Digital Twins interface with Advanced Sensor and Instrumentation Interfaces: Cyber Threat Assessment and Attack Demonstration for Digital Twins in Advanced Reactor Architectures

A digital twin is a virtual representation of a physical system or object using real-time data that can predict and analyze how the system or object performs. This relatively new technology can be applied to the field of nuclear power generation, to aid in the design and development of new nuclear power plants and reduce operation costs using predictive maintenance and other data analytical methods. While there are already companies utilizing simulation software to train operators and technicians in the nuclear industry, some are now transitioning to utilizing their existing technology, software, and methods to develop digital twin solutions for the next generation of nuclear power plants, offering their services to utilities and government organizations around the world.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Analysis of Polarimetry Data with Angular Uncertainties

For a track based polarimeter, such as the Imaging X-ray Polarimetry Explorer (IXPE), the sensitivity to polarization depends on the modulation factor, which is a strong function of energy. In previous work, a likelihood method was developed that would account for this variation in order to estimate the minimum detectable polarization (MDP). That method essentially required that the position angles of individual events should be known precisely. In a separate work, however, it was shown that using a machine-learning method for measuring event tracks can generate track angle uncertainties, which can be used in the analysis. Here, the maximum likelihood method is used as a basis for revising the estimate of the MDP in a general way that can include uncertainties in event track position angles. The resultant MDP depends solely upon the distribution of track angle uncertainties present in the input data. Due to the physics of the IXPE detectors, it is possible to derive a simple relationship between these angular uncertainties and the energy-dependent modulation function as a step in the process.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2025

Adaptive Grid Redistribution for a 1D Model of Turbulence and Clouds

In global atmospheric models, resolving stratocumulus (Sc) in the vertical is computationally expensive. However, Sc appear only under special meteorological conditions. Therefore, there is motivation to refine the vertical grid levels adaptively. In order to facilitate the possibility of parallelization on graphical processing units, our grid adaptation method prescribes the number of vertical levels a priori. Then grid levels are relocated toward altitude ranges in need of refinement. Because the method relocates existing grid levels, rather than adding extra levels, there is a risk of creating regions with overly coarse grid spacing, that is, voids in the grid mesh. To prevent such voids from forming, a simple method is developed to impose a maximum grid spacing. To decide where to place enhanced resolution, the authors develop an empirical mesh refinement criterion. It refines grid spacing near the ground, near strong temperature gradients, and within clouds. Our grid adaptation method is implemented in a single-column model and evaluated on four test cases: decaying stratocumulus, developing shallow cumulus, a quasi-stationary stratocumulus deck, and the diurnal cycle of a dry boundary layer. In the stratocumulus cases, mesh refinement leads to improvements in both the time evolution of fields and their time averages. The other two cases show smaller differences.

Carstensen, Steffen [Univ. of Wisconsin, Milwaukee↗

DOE OSTI2025

NOVEL METHODS FOR IN SITU HIGH DENSITY SURFACE CLEANING SCRUBBING OF ULTRAHIGH VAC LONG NARROW TUBES TO REDUCE SECONDARY ELECTRON YIELD AND OUT GASSING

This project developed new methods for cleaning the inside surfaces of very long, narrow vacuum tubes used in particle accelerators. Traditional cleaning approaches are expensive, slow, or difficult to implement in accelerator tunnels. We designed and tested a portable plasma discharge cleaning system that uses lower-cost microwave and magnetron technologies to reduce outgassing and secondary electron emission from stainless steel and copper surfaces. The system, called the Plasma Discharge Test System (PDTS), allows accelerator components to be scrubbed more efficiently, which can improve performance and reduce maintenance costs for research and industrial applications.

POOLE, JOE HENRY [PRESIDENT]↗

DOE OSTI2020

Investigating Scientific Data Change with User Research Methods

Scientific datasets are continually expanding and changing due to fluctuations with instruments, quality assessment and quality control processes, and modifications to software pipelines. Datasets include minimal information about these changes or their effects requiring scientists manually assess modifications through a number of labor intensive and ad-hoc steps. The Deduce project is investigating data change to develop metrics, methods, and tools that will help scientists systematically identify and make decisions around data changes. Currently, there is a lack of understanding, and common practices, for identifying and evaluating changes in datasets since systematically measuring and managing data change is under explored in scientific work. We are conducting user research to address this need by exploring scientist's conceptualizations, behaviors, needs, and motivations when dealing with changing datasets. Our user research utilizes multiple methods to produce foundational, generative insights and evaluate research products produced by our team. In this paper, we detail our user research process and outline our findings about data change that emerge from our studies. Our work illustrates how scientific software teams can push beyond just usability testing user interfaces or tools to better probe the underlying ideas they are developing solutions to address.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

DOE OSTI2022

A machine learning approach to determine the elastic properties of printed fiber-reinforced polymers

This work focuses on the simultaneous determination of the elastic constants and the fiber orientation state for a short fiber-reinforced polymer composite by performing a minimum of experimental tests. Here we introduce a methodology that enables the inverse determination of fiber orientation state and the in-situ polymer properties by performing tensile tests at the composite coupon level. We demonstrate the approach for the extrusion deposition additive manufacturing (EDAM) process to illustrate one application of the methodology, but the development is such that it can be applied to short fiber-reinforced polymer (SFRP) systems processed via other methods. Currently, developing composites additive manufacturing digital twins require extensive material characterization. In particular, the mechanical characterization of the orthotropic elastic properties of a composite involves extensive sample preparation and testing, therefore the elasticity tensor is generally populated using a micromechanics model. This, however, requires measuring the fiber orientation state in addition to knowing the constituent material properties. Experimentally measuring the fiber orientation state can be tedious and time consuming. Further, optical methods are limited to resolving the orientation of cylindrical fibers or cluster of non-cylindrical fibers, and computed tomography (CT) methods scan regions of volume that are much smaller than a full printed bead. Therefore, we propose a methodology, accelerated by machine learning, to identify the anisotropic mechanical properties and fiber orientation state at the same time. Early results show that inference of the fiber orientation and composite properties is possible with as few as three tensile tests. Our results show that a combination of the choice of the micromechanics model and reliable set of experiments can yield the nine elastic constants, as well as, the fiber orientation state.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗