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DOE OSTI2020

UQ Toolkit v 2.0

The Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) Toolkit is a software library for the characterizaton and propagation of uncertainties in computational models. For the characterization of uncertainties, Bayesian inference tools are provided to infer uncertain model parameters, as well as Bayesian compressive sensing methods for discovering sparse representations of high-dimensional input-output response surfaces, and also Karhunen-Loève expansions for representing stochastic processes. Uncertain parameters are treated as random variables and represented with Polynomial Chaos expansions (PCEs). The library implements several spectral basis function types (e.g. Hermite basis functions in terms of Gaussian random variables or Legendre basis functions in terms of uniform random variables) that can be used to represent random variables with PCEs. For propagation of uncertainty, tools are provided to propagate PCEs that describe the input uncertainty through the computational model using either intrusive methods (Galerkin projection of equations onto basis functions) or non-intrusive methods (perform deterministic operation at sampled values of the random values and project the obtained results onto basis functions).

Safta, Cosmin↗

DOE OSTI2021

Space-Time Reduced-Order Modeling for Uncertainty Quantification

This work focuses on the space-time reduced-order modeling (ROM) method for solving large-scale uncertainty quantification (UQ) problems with multiple random coefficients. In contrast with the traditional space ROM approach, which performs dimension reduction in the spatial dimension, the space-time ROM approach performs dimension reduction on both the spatial and temporal domains, and thus enables accurate approximate solutions at a low cost. We incorporate the space-time ROM strategy with various classical stochastic UQ propagation methods such as stochastic Galerkin and Monte Carlo. Numerical results demonstrate that our methodology has significant computational advantages compared to state-of-the-art ROM approaches. By testing the approximation errors, we show that there is no obvious loss of simulation accuracy for space-time ROM given its high computational efficiency.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Enhanced accuracy through ensembling of randomly initialized auto-regressive models for dynamical systems

Computational mechanics simulations using traditional finite element methods (FEM) require prohibitively expensive computational resources for real-time engineering applications, design optimization, and digital twin implementations. While machine learning (ML) surrogate models offer significant computational speedups, autoregressive ML models for time-dependent mechanical systems suffer from error accumulation that compromises long-term prediction reliability - a critical concern for engineering applications where accuracy over extended time horizons is essential for safety and performance assessments. Here, we propose a deep ensemble framework specifically designed to address this challenge in computational mechanics applications, where multiple ML surrogate models with random weight initializations are trained in parallel and their predictions aggregated during inference. This approach leverages statistical diversity to maximize information gain from a fixed set of training data and to mitigate error propagation, while maintaining the computational efficiency that makes ML surrogates attractive for engineering practice. We validate the framework on three representative problems spanning critical areas of computational mechanics: stress field evolution in heterogeneous microstructures under complex loading (relevant to advanced materials design and composite analysis), planetary-scale shallow water dynamics (applicable to environmental and geotechnical engineering), and Gray-Scott reaction-diffusion systems (relevant to mass transport and chemical process engineering). Across all test cases, the ensemble approach demonstrates consistent error reduction of 15-33% compared to individual models. The codes for this work are available on GitHub (https://github.com/Graham-Brady-Research-Group/AutoregressiveEnsemble_SpatioTemporal_Evolution).

autoregressive prediction↗

DOE OSTI2016

Radiation Therapy Did Not Induce Long-Term Changes in Rectal Mucosa: Results From the Randomized Scandinavian Prostate Cancer Group 7 Trial

Purpose: To investigate long-term changes in the rectal mucosa after curative external beam radiation therapy in the treatment of prostate cancer. Methods and Materials: In the Scandinavian Prostate Cancer Group 7 trial, 880 men with locally advanced prostate cancer were randomized to hormonal therapy alone versus hormonal therapy plus radiation therapy to 70 Gy. A subcohort from this trial being randomized at our center (n=178) was invited to a study on late anorectal side effects during 2003-2005, approximately 5 years after treatment, including measuring health-reported quality of life and physician-assessed toxicity score by the Late Effects Normal Tissue Task Force/Subjective, Objective, Management, Analytic (LENT/SOMA) and European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer/Radiation Therapy Oncology Group score. Sixty-seven patients had a rectal mucosa biopsy. Sixty-four biopsies were included in the final analysis, of which 33 patients were randomized to hormonal treatment and 31 to hormonal treatment plus radiation therapy. The presence of fibrosis, number of capillaries, and lymphocyte infiltration was then evaluated by light microscopy. Results: The group receiving radiation therapy had significantly higher LENT/SOMA and function/bother scale scores than the group that only received hormonal treatment, but there was no significant difference in the presence of fibrosis, ectasia, number of capillaries in the lamina propria, or lymphocyte infiltration between the groups. Conclusion: Radiation therapy to 70 Gy to the prostate does not induce long-term microscopic mucosal changes in the rectum 5 years after treatment. This is in contrast to the general assumption that structural changes, including fibrosis, seen after radiation therapy include the mucosa. We speculate that the main late effects of radiation therapy on the structure of the rectum are located in the deeper layers of the rectal wall than the mucosa.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2021

A predictive discrete-continuum multiscale model of plasticity with quantified uncertainty

Multiscale models of materials, consisting of upscaling discrete simulations to continuum models, are unique in their capability to simulate complex materials behavior. The fundamental limitation in multiscale models is the presence of uncertainty in the computational predictions delivered by them. In this work, a sequential multiscale model has been developed, incorporating discrete dislocation dynamics (DDD) simulations and a strain gradient plasticity (SGP) model to predict the size effect in plastic deformations of metallic micro-pillars. The DDD simulations include uniaxial compression of micro-pillars with different sizes and over a wide range of initial dislocation densities and spatial distributions of dislocations. An SGP model is employed at the continuum level that accounts for the size-dependency of flow stress and hardening rate. Sequences of uncertainty analyses have been performed to assess the predictive capability of the multiscale model. The variance-based global sensitivity analysis determines the effect of parameter uncertainty on the SGP model prediction. The multiscale model is then constructed by calibrating the continuum model using the data furnished by the DDD simulations. A Bayesian calibration method is implemented to quantify the uncertainty due to microstructural randomness in discrete dislocation simulations (density and spatial distribution of dislocations) on the macroscopic continuum model prediction (size effect in plastic deformation). Here, the outcomes of this study indicate that the discrete-continuum multiscale model can accurately simulate the plastic deformation of micro-pillars, despite the significant uncertainty in the DDD results. Additionally, depending on the macroscopic features represented by the DDD simulations, the SGP model can reliably predict the size effect in plasticity responses of the micropillars with below 10% of error.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2015

Phonon and magnetic structure in δ-plutonium from density-functional theory

We present phonon properties of plutonium metal obtained from a combination of density-functional-theory (DFT) electronic structure and the recently developed compressive sensing lattice dynamics (CSLD). The CSLD model is here trained on DFT total energies of several hundreds of quasi-random atomic configurations for best possible accuracy of the phonon properties. The calculated phonon dispersions compare better with experiment than earlier results obtained from dynamical mean-field theory. The density-functional model of the electronic structure consists of disordered magnetic moments with all relativistic effects and explicit orbital-orbital correlations. The magnetic disorder is approximated in two ways: (i) a special quasi-random structure and (ii) the disordered-local-moment (DLM) method within the coherent potential approximation. Magnetism in plutonium has been debated intensely, However, the present magnetic approach for plutonium is validated by the close agreement between the predicted magnetic form factor and that of recent neutron-scattering experiments.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2023

Hooks versus Pedicle Screws at the Upper Instrumented Level: An In Vitro Biomechanical Comparison

Study Design. Controlled laboratory study Objective. To compare motions at the upper instrumented vertebra (UIV) and supra-adjacent level (UIV+1) between two fixation techniques in thoracic posterior spinal fusion (PSF) constructs. We hypothesized there would be greater motion at UIV+1 after cyclic loading across all constructs and bilateral pedicle screws (BPS) with posterior ligamentous compromise would demonstrate the greatest UIV+1 range of motion (ROM). Summary of Background Data. Proximal junctional kyphosis (PJK) is a well-recognized complication following long thoraco-lumbar PSF, however its mechanism is poorly understood. Methods. Twenty-seven thoracic functional spine units (FSU) were randomly divided into three UIV fixation groups (n=9): (1) BPS, (2) bilateral transverse process hooks (TPH), and (3) BPS with compromise of the posterior elements between UIV and UIV+1 (BPS-C). Specimens were tested on a servohydraulic materials testing system in native state, following instrumentation, and after cyclic loading. FSUs were loaded in flexion-extension (FE), lateral bending (LB), and axial rotation (AR). Results. After cyclic testing, the TPH group had a mean 29.4% increase in FE ROM at UIV+1 versus 76.6% in the BPS group ( P <0.05). The BPS-C group showed an increased FE of 49.9% and 62.19% with sectioning of the facet joints and interspinous ligament respectively prior to cyclic testing. Conclusion. Bilateral pedicle screws at the UIV led to greater motion at UIV+1 compared to bilateral TPH after cyclic loading. This is likely due to the increased rigidity of BPS compared to TPH leading to a “softer” transition between the TPH construct and native anatomy at the supra-adjacent level. Facet capsule compromise led to a 49.9% increase in UIV+1 motion, underscoring the importance of preserving the posterior ligamentous complex. Clinical studies that account for fusion rates are warranted to determine if constructs with a “soft transition” result in less PJK in vivo.

Neurosciences & Neurology↗

DOE OSTI2015

SU-E-T-65: A Prospective Trial of Open Face Masks for Head and Neck Radiotherapy

Purpose: Open face head and neck masks allow for active patient monitoring during treatment and may reduced claustrophobia and anxiety compared to closed masks. The ability of open masks to limit intrafraction motion and to preserve the patient shape/position from simulation over protracted treatments should be considered. Methods: Thirty-two head and neck patients were prospectively randomized to treatment in a closed mask or a novel open face mask. All patients received daily volumetric imaging. The daily images were automatically rigidly registered to the planning CT’s offline using a commercial image processing tool. The shifts needed to optimize the registration, the mutual information coefficient (MI), and the Pearson correlation (PC) coefficients were recorded to evaluate shape preservation. The open group was set-up and monitored with surface imaging at treatment. The real time surface imaging information was recorded to evaluate intrafraction motion. Results: Sixteen patients were included in each group. Evaluations were made over a total of 984 fractions. The mean MI and PC showed significantly higher shape preservation for the open group than for the closed group (p = 0). The mean rotations for the open group were smaller or < 0.15° larger versus the closed group. The mean intrafraction motion for the open group was 0.93 +/−0.99 mm (2 SD). The maximum single fraction displacement was 3.2 mm. Fourteen of 16 patients showed no significant correlation of motion with fraction number (p > 0.05). Conclusion: The open masks preserved shape as well as the closed masks, and they limited motion to < 2 mm for 95% of the treated fractions. These results are consistent over treatment courses of up to 35 fractions. The open mask is suitable for treatment with or without active monitoring. This work was partially supported by Qfix.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

SU-E-T-789: Validation of 3DVH Accuracy On Quantifying Delivery Errors Based On Clinical Relevant DVH Metrics

Purpose: Detection of treatment delivery errors is important in radiation therapy. However, accurate quantification of delivery errors is also of great importance. This study aims to evaluate the 3DVH software’s ability to accurately quantify delivery errors. Methods: Three VMAT plans (prostate, H&N and brain) were randomly chosen for this study. First, we evaluated whether delivery errors could be detected by gamma evaluation. Conventional per-beam IMRT QA was performed with the ArcCHECK diode detector for the original plans and for the following modified plans: (1) induced dose difference error up to ±4.0% and (2) control point (CP) deletion (3 to 10 CPs were deleted) (3) gantry angle shift error (3 degree uniformly shift). 2D and 3D gamma evaluation were performed for all plans through SNC Patient and 3DVH, respectively. Subsequently, we investigated the accuracy of 3DVH analysis for all cases. This part evaluated, using the Eclipse TPS plans as standard, whether 3DVH accurately can model the changes in clinically relevant metrics caused by the delivery errors. Results: 2D evaluation seemed to be more sensitive to delivery errors. The average differences between ECLIPSE predicted and 3DVH results for each pair of specific DVH constraints were within 2% for all three types of error-induced treatment plans, illustrating the fact that 3DVH is fairly accurate in quantifying the delivery errors. Another interesting observation was that even though the gamma pass rates for the error plans are high, the DVHs showed significant differences between original plan and error-induced plans in both Eclipse and 3DVH analysis. Conclusion: The 3DVH software is shown to accurately quantify the error in delivered dose based on clinically relevant DVH metrics, where a conventional gamma based pre-treatment QA might not necessarily detect.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

SU-D-207A-07: The Effects of Inter-Cycle Respiratory Motion Variation On Dose Accumulation in Single Fraction MR-Guided SBRT Treatment of Renal Cell Carcinoma

Purpose: To assess the dose deposition in simulated single-fraction MR-Linac treatments of renal cell carcinoma, when inter-cycle respiratory motion variation is taken into account using online MRI. Methods: Three motion characterization methods, with increasing complexity, were compared to evaluate the effect of inter-cycle motion variation and drifts on the accumulated dose for an SBRT kidney MR-Linac treatment: 1) STATIC, in which static anatomy was assumed, 2) AVG-RESP, in which 4D-MRI phase-volumes were time-weighted, based on the respiratory phase and 3) PCA, in which 3D volumes were generated using a PCA-model, enabling the detection of inter-cycle variations and drifts. An experimental ITV-based kidney treatment was simulated in a 1.5T magnetic field on three volunteer datasets. For each volunteer a retrospectively sorted 4D-MRI (ten respiratory phases) and fast 2D cine-MR images (temporal resolution = 476ms) were acquired to simulate MR-imaging during radiation. For each method, the high spatio-temporal resolution 3D volumes were non-rigidly registered to obtain deformation vector fields (DVFs). Using the DVFs, pseudo-CTs (generated from the 4D-MRI) were deformed and the dose was accumulated for the entire treatment. The accuracies of all methods were independently determined using an additional, orthogonal 2D-MRI slice. Results: Motion was most accurately estimated using the PCA method, which correctly estimated drifts and inter-cycle variations (RMSE=3.2, 2.2, 1.1mm on average for STATIC, AVG-RESP and PCA, compared to the 2DMRI slice). Dose-volume parameters on the ITV showed moderate changes (D99=35.2, 32.5, 33.8Gy for STATIC, AVG-RESP and PCA). AVG-RESP showed distinct hot/cold spots outside the ITV margin, which were more distributed for the PCA scenario, since inter-cycle variations were not modeled by the AVG-RESP method. Conclusion: Dose differences were observed when inter-cycle variations were taken into account. The increased inter-cycle randomness in motion as captured by the PCA model mitigates the local (erroneous) hotspots estimated by the AVG-RESP method.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

SU-F-T-422: Detection of Optimal Tangential Partial Arc Span for VMAT Planning in IntactLeft-Breast Treatment

Purpose: This study was designed to investigate an appropriate arc span for intact partial Left breast irradiation by VMAT planning. Methods: Four cases of carcinoma left intact breast was chosen randomly for this study. Both medial tangential and left-lateral tangential arc (G20°, G25°, G30°, G35°, G40°) were used having the same length and bilaterally symmetric. For each patient base plan was generated for 30° arc and rest of other arc plans were generated by keeping all plan parameters same, only arc span were changed. All patient plans were generated on treatment planning system Monaco (V 5.00.02) for 50 Gy dose in 25 fractions. PTV contours were clipped 3 mm from skin (patient). All plans were normalized in such a way that 95 % of prescription dose would cover 96 % of PTV volume. Results: Mean MU for 20°, 25°, 30°, 35° and 40° were 509 ± 18.8, 529.1 ± 20.2, 544.4 ± 20.8, 579.1 ±51.8, 607.2 ± 40.2 similarly mean hot spot (volume covered by 105% of prescription dose) were 2.9 ± 1.2, 3.7 ± 3.0, 1.5 ± 1.7, 1.3±0.6, 0.4 ± 0.4, mean contralateral breast dose (cGy) were 180.4 ± 242.3, 71.5 ± 52.7, 76.2 ± 58.8, 85.9 ± 70.5, 90.7 ± 70.1, mean heart dose (cGy) were 285.8 ± 87.2, 221.2 ± 62.8, 274.5 ± 95.5, 234.8 ± 73.8, 263.2 ± 81.6, V20 for ipsilateral lung were 15.4 ± 5.3, 14.3 ± 3.6, 15.3 ± 2.9, 14.2 ± 3.9, 14.7 ± 3.2 and V5 for ipsilateral lung were 33.9 ± 8.2, 31.0 ± 3.5, 42.6 ±15.6, 36.4 ± 12.9, 37.0 ± 7.5. Conclusion: The study concluded that appropriate arc span used for tangential intact breast treatment was optimally 30° because larger arc span were giving lower isodose spill in ipsilateral lung and smaller arc were giving heterogeneous dose distribution in PTV.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

NF-κB perturbation reveals unique immunomodulatory functions in Prx1 + fibroblasts that promote development of atopic dermatitis

Skin is composed of diverse cell populations that cooperatively maintain homeostasis. Up-regulation of the nuclear factor κB (NF-κB) pathway may lead to the development of chronic inflammatory disorders of the skin, but its role during the early events remains unclear. Here, through analysis of single-cell RNA sequencing data via iterative random forest leave one out prediction, an explainable artificial intelligence method, we identified an immunoregulatory role for a unique paired related homeobox-1 (Prx1) + fibroblast subpopulation. Disruption of Ikkb–NF-κB under homeostatic conditions in these fibroblasts paradoxically induced skin inflammation due to the overexpression of C-C motif chemokine ligand 11 (CCL11; or eotaxin-1) characterized by eosinophil infiltration and a subsequent T H 2 immune response. Because the inflammatory phenotype resembled that seen in human atopic dermatitis (AD), we examined human AD skin samples and found that human AD fibroblasts also overexpressed CCL11 and that perturbation of Ikkb–NF-κB in primary human dermal fibroblasts up-regulated CCL11. Monoclonal antibody treatment against CCL11 was effective in reducing the eosinophilia and T H 2 inflammation in a mouse model. Together, the murine model and human AD specimens point to dysregulated Prx1 + fibroblasts as a previously unrecognized etiologic factor that may contribute to the pathogenesis of AD and suggest that targeting CCL11 may be a way to treat AD-like skin lesions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

Gaussian variational ansatz in the problem of anomalous sea waves: Comparison with direct numerical simulation

The nonlinear dynamics of an obliquely oriented wave packet on a sea surface is analyzed analytically and numerically for various initial parameters of the packet in relation to the problem of the so-called rogue waves. Within the Gaussian variational ansatz applied to the corresponding (1+2)-dimensional hyperbolic nonlinear Schrödinger equation (NLSE), a simplified Lagrangian system of differential equations is derived that describes the evolution of the coefficients of the real and imaginary quadratic forms appearing in the Gaussian. This model provides a semi-quantitative description of the process of nonlinear spatiotemporal focusing, which is one of the most probable mechanisms of rogue wave formation in random wave fields. The system of equations is integrated in quadratures, which allows one to better understand the qualitative differences between linear and nonlinear focusing regimes of a wave packet. Predictions of the Gaussian model are compared with the results of direct numerical simulation of fully nonlinear long-crested waves.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2025

Implementation of stacked ensemble machine learning for the detection of surrogate plutonium contamination in soil via LIBS

Supervised machine learning methods have demonstrated increased utility for the quantification of lanthanide and actinide elements in atomic spectroscopy applications. This study implements laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) for the identification of plutonium surrogate material (CeO 2 ) in soil matrices by training supervised machine learning methods on the recorded spectral data. A bagged ensemble using Random Forest yields the highest sensitivity predictions with a detection limit of 0.015 wt.% CeO 2 . However, high precision in Ce content prediction required the use of a stacked ensemble regression, which provided the superlative Ce quantification model with an error of 0.107% and a detection limit of 0.022 wt.%. Furthermore, the high performance of the stacked ensemble demonstrates its potential to enhance the accuracy and sensitivity of nuclear contaminant detection using field-deployable spectroscopic analyzers in real-world scenarios.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2018

Unsupervised Identification of Study Descriptors in Toxicology Research: An Experimental Study

Identifying and extracting data elements such as study descriptors in publication full texts is a critical yet manual and labor-intensive step required in a number of tasks. In this paper we address the question of identifying data elements in an unsupervised manner. Specifically, provided a set of criteria describing specific study parameters, such as species, route of administration, and dosing regimen, we develop an unsupervised approach to identify text segments relevant to the criteria. A binary classifier trained to identify publications that met the criteria performs better when trained on the candidate sentences than when trained on sentences randomly picked from the text, supporting the intuition that our method is able to accurately identify study descriptors.

Herrmannova, Dasha↗

DOE OSTI2015

Dimension reduction for PDE using local Karhunen Loeve expansions [Poster]

The objectives were to develop efficient methods for sampling linear partial differential equations subject to uncertain random fields, use domain decomposition and local Karhunen Loeve expansions (KLE) to represent a random field with small correlation length with local KLE defined over subdomains with relatively larger correlation lengths, and show the use of local KLE reduces the high dimensional global field to a set of lower dimensional KLE.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2017

Confidence Intervals from Realizations of Simulated Nuclear Data

Various statistical techniques are discussed that can be used to assign a level of confidence in the prediction of models that depend on input data with known uncertainties and correlations. The particular techniques reviewed in this paper are: 1) random realizations of the input data using Monte-Carlo methods, 2) the construction of confidence intervals to assess the reliability of model predictions, and 3) resampling techniques to impose statistical constraints on the input data based on additional information. These techniques are illustrated with a calculation of the keff value, based on the 235 U(n, f) and 239 Pu (n, f) cross sections.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Performance and automatic calibration scheme of the waveform sampler in the ETROC2 ASIC chip

The waveform sampler in the CMS ETROC2 chip for LGAD gain aging monitoring is a 2.56-GS/s 12-bit 8x-Interleaved ADC that consists of a coarse SAR stage, and a fine stage. This architecture delivers high performance on a relatively modest 65 nm process, while requires finding up to 24 calibration constants through calibration. We developed an automatic calibration method using charge injection test data. After calibration, the baseline random error is reduced by a factor of 2.5–3 compared to the default calibration, and a 5% charge measurement precision is achieved in 15 fC charge injection tests.

Fu, Tao [Unlisted, US]↗