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DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of Global Climate Models for Use in Energy Analysis

The interplay between energy, climate, and weather is becoming more complex due to increasing contributions of renewable energy generation, energy storage, electrified end uses, and the increasing frequency of extreme weather events. Energy system analyses commonly rely on meteorological inputs to estimate renewable energy generation and energy demand; however, these inputs rarely represent the estimated impacts of future climate change. Climate models and publicly available climate change datasets can be used for this purpose, but the selection of inputs from the myriad of available models and datasets is a nuanced and subjective process. In this work, we assess datasets from various global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). We present evaluations of their skills with respect to the historical climate and comparisons of their future projections of climate change for two climate change scenarios. We present the results for different climatic and energy system regions and include interactive figures in the accompanying software repository. Previous work has presented similar GCM evaluations, but none have presented variables and metrics specifically intended for comprehensive energy systems analysis including impacts on energy demand, thermal cooling, hydropower, water availability, solar energy generation, and wind energy generation. We focus on GCM output meteorological variables that directly affect these energy system components including the representation of extreme values that can drive grid resilience events. The objective of this work is not to recommend the best climate model and dataset for a given analysis, but instead to provide a reference to facilitate the selection of climate models and scenarios in subsequent work.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2016

PREDICTIVE MODELING OF ACOUSTIC SIGNALS FROM THERMOACOUSTIC POWER SENSORS (TAPS)

Thermoacoustic Power Sensor (TAPS) technology offers the potential for self-powered, wireless measurement of nuclear reactor core operating conditions. TAPS are based on thermoacoustic engines, which harness thermal energy from fission reactions to generate acoustic waves by virtue of gas motion through a porous stack of thermally nonconductive material. TAPS can be placed in the core, where they generate acoustic waves whose frequency and amplitude are proportional to the local temperature and radiation flux, respectively. TAPS acoustic signals are not measured directly at the TAPS; rather, they propagate wirelessly from an individual TAPS through the reactor, and ultimately to a low-power receiver network on the vessel’s exterior. In order to rely on TAPS as primary instrumentation, reactor-specific models which account for geometric/acoustic complexities in the signal propagation environment must be used to predict the amplitude and frequency of TAPS signals at receiver locations. The reactor state may then be derived by comparing receiver signals to the reference levels established by predictive modeling. In this paper, we develop and experimentally benchmark a methodology for predictive modeling of the signals generated by a TAPS system, with the intent of subsequently extending these efforts to modeling of TAPS in a liquid sodium environmen

thermoacoustics, wireless in-core radiation detect↗

DOE OSTI2017

Incorporation of drift loss cone effects on the trapping of an artificial radiation belt into LANL's modeling capability

Los Alamos National Laboratory has developed an end-to-end model that quantifies the total ionizing dose that a shielded component on a space asset will accrue due to interactions with trapped beta-decay electrons produced after a high-altitude nuclear explosion. The model consists of three major components: initial trapping, spatio-temporal evolution of the trapped population, and interaction of the evolving trapped population with a space asset to produce total ionizing dose. The initial trapping module calculates the fraction of betas produced by radioactive decay of nuclear fission products that will be trapped in the magnetic field surrounding Earth for at least one drift around Earth. Previously, the initial trapping calculation assumed a centered dipole magnetic field model whereas we know that Earth’s magnetic field is offset from its geographic center and has higher-order non-dipole terms. Both the offset and the higher-order terms are captured in the International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF) internal field model. In a centered dipole, the electrons that are trapped on a magnetic field line at one longitude will be trapped at all other longitudes as they drift around Earth due to azimuthal symmetry of the field, but the offset and higher-order terms of the IGRF field affects the drift of the trapped electrons and causes some that are trapped at one longitude to be lost at other longitudes. These electrons are called "quasi-trapped" and are said to be in the drift loss cone since they will be lost during their first drift around Earth. In this paper we report on the effect of incorporating the drift of electrons around Earth using the IGRF field on the trapping fraction as compared to using a centered dipole. Here, we find that the new, more accurate, methodology produces higher trapping fractions for bursts above the South Atlantic Anomaly, a region of low magnetic field strength, and lower trapping fractions for bursts in regions with higher magnetic field strength than expected from a centered dipole.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2013

235 U– 231 Pa age dating of uranium materials for nuclear forensic investigations

Here, age dating of nuclear material can provide insight into source and suspected use in nuclear forensic investigations. We report here a method for the determination of the date of most recent chemical purification for uranium materials using the 235 U- 231 Pa chronometer. Protactinium is separated from uranium and neptunium matrices using anion exchange resin, followed by sorption of Pa to an SiO 2 medium. The concentration of 231 Pa is measured by isotope dilution mass spectrometry using 233 Pa spikes prepared from an aliquot of 237 Np and calibrated in-house using the rock standard Table Mountain Latite and the uranium isotopic standard U100. Combined uncertainties of age dates using this method are 1.5 to 3.5 %, an improvement over alpha spectrometry measurement methods. Model ages of five uranium standard reference materials are presented; all standards have concordant 235 U- 231 Pa and 234 U- 230 Th model ages.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Ground Heat Flux Reconstruction Using Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification Machinery and Surrogate Modeling

Ground heat flux (G 0 ) is a key component of the land-surface energy balance of high-latitude regions. Despite its crucial role in controlling permafrost degradation due to global warming, G 0 is sparsely measured and not well represented in the outputs of global scale model simulation. In this study, an analytical heat transfer model is tested to reconstruct G 0 across seasons using soil temperature series from field measurements, Global Climate Model, and climate reanalysis outputs. The probability density functions of ground heat flux and of model parameters are inferred using available G 0 data (measured or modeled) for snow-free period as a reference. When observed G 0 is not available, a numerical model is applied using estimates of surface heat flux (dependent on parameters) as the top boundary condition. These estimates (and thus the corresponding parameters) are verified by comparing the distributions of simulated and measured soil temperature at several depths. Aided by state-of-the-art uncertainty quantification methods, the developed G 0 reconstruction approach provides novel means for assessing the probabilistic structure of the ground heat flux for regional permafrost change studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Reference Governor for Plasma-Shape Control in Tokamaks

Tokamaks are torus-shaped devices where a high-temperature, ionized gas (i.e. a plasma) is confined by means of helical magnetic fields. The ultimate goal of tokamaks is producing net electrical energy by means of nuclear-fusion reactions within the plasma. The shape of the plasma inside the tokamak is closely related with its confinement characteristics and, therefore, with the produced fusion power. In order to achieve and maintain plasma shapes that maximize the fusion yield, feedback controllers have been successfully developed during the years. However, machine-protection and plasma-stability requirements impose hard constraints on the plasma-shape targets that can be safely achieved by a feedback controller. In this work, a reference governor is proposed to provide, in real time, plasma-shape targets that fulfill the aforementioned safety requirements. The reference governor calculates such plasma-shape targets in response to changes in the state of the closed-loop system, as well as disturbances in the plasma energy and current. Here, the reference-governor design is based on a dynamical model of the plasma electromagnetic response. Simulation tests of the reference governor have been carried out for different plasma scenarios in the DIII-D tokamak to emulate realistic cases where safety may be compromised.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Predicting High Energy Arcing Fault Zones of Influence for Aluminum Using an Arc Flash Modeling Approach: Evaluation of a model bias, uncertainty, parameter sensitivity and zone of influence estimation

This report documents the development of an arc flash hazard model to calculate the incident energy and zone of influence from high energy arcing faults involving aluminum. The NRC has identified the potential for (HEAFs) involving aluminum to increase the damage zone beyond what is currently postulated in fire probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodologies. To estimate the hazard from HEAFs involving aluminum an arc flash model was developed. Differences between the initial model and nuclear power plant (NPP) fire PRA scenarios were identified. Modification of the initial model established from existing literature and test data was used to minimize these differences. The developed model was evaluated against NRC datasets to understand the model prediction and relative uncertainties. Finally, a range of fire PRA zone of influences (ZOI) were developed based on the developed model, target fragility estimates and update HEAF PRA methodology. The results were developed to support an NRC LIC-504 evaluation in tandem with other modeling efforts. The report documents the effort and provides a reference for any future advancements in arc flash modeling.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Block Island Noise Modeling Data

Noise propagation near Block Island was simulated to assess environmental impacts of impact pile driving during wind turbine construction. Computational models complement field-recorded acoustic data, providing insights into sound attenuation, spectral variability, and propagation dynamics. The dataset includes: 1. Propagation Models: Simulated underwater sound fields documenting sound pressure and directional variability across frequency bands and distances. 2. Spectral Analysis (LTSA): Long-term averages and processed outputs calculating acoustic intensity over time. 3. Visualization Files: Graphs, 2D/3D simulation results, and reference calculations used in sound modeling.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

DECOVALEX-2023, Task F Specification, Revision 8

This report is the revised (Revision 8) Task F specification for DECOVALEX-2023. Task F is a comparison of the models and methods used in deep geologic repository performance assessment. The task proposes to develop a reference case for a mined repository in a fractured crystalline host rock and a reference case for a mined repository in a salt formation. Teams may choose to participate in the comparison for either or both of the reference cases. For each reference case, a common set of conceptual models and parameters describing features, events, and processes that impact performance will be given, and teams will be responsible for determining how best to implement and couple the models. The comparison will be conducted in stages, beginning with a comparison of key outputs of individual process models, followed by a comparison of a single deterministic simulation of the full reference case, and moving on to uncertainty propagation and uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. This report provides background information, a summary of the proposed reference cases, and a staged plan for the analysis.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2022

DECOVALEX-2023 Task F Specification (Rev. 9)

This report is the revised (Revision 9) Task F specification for DECOVALEX-2023. Task F is a comparison of the models and methods used in deep geologic repository performance assessment. The task proposes to develop a reference case for a mined repository in a fractured crystalline host rock (Task F1) and a reference case for a mined repository in a salt formation (Task F2). Teams may choose to participate in the comparison for either or both reference cases. For each reference case, a common set of conceptual models and parameters describing features, events, and processes that impact performance will be given, and teams will be responsible for determining how best to implement and couple the models. The comparison will be conducted in stages, beginning with a comparison of key outputs of individual process models, followed by a comparison of a single deterministic simulation of the full reference case, and moving on to uncertainty propagation and uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. This report provides background information, a summary of the proposed reference cases, and a staged plan for the analysis.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2023

DECOVALEX-2023: Task F Specification (Revision 10)

This report is the revised (Revision 10) Task F specification for DECOVALEX-2023. Task F is a comparison of the models and methods used in deep geologic repository performance assessment. The task proposes to develop a reference case for a mined repository in a fractured crystalline host rock (Task F1) and a reference case for a mined repository in a salt formation (Task F2). Teams may choose to participate in the comparison for either or both reference cases. For each reference case, a common set of conceptual models and parameters describing features, events, and processes that impact performance will be given, and teams will be responsible for determining how best to implement and couple the models. The comparison will be conducted in stages, beginning with a comparison of key outputs of individual process models, followed by a comparison of a single deterministic simulation of the full reference case, and moving on to uncertainty propagation and uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. This report provides background information, a summary of the proposed reference cases, and a staged plan for the analysis.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2025

Policy implications of net-zero emissions: A multi-model analysis of United States emissions and energy system impacts

Many countries, subnational jurisdictions, and companies are setting net-zero emissions goals; however, questions remain about strategies to reach these targets, policy measures, technology gaps, and economic impacts. Here, we investigate the potential policy implications of reaching economy-wide net-zero CO 2 emissions across the United States by 2050 using results from a multi-model comparison with 14 energy-economic models. Model results suggest that achieving net-zero CO 2 targets depends on policies that accelerate deployment of zero- and low-emitting technologies that have seen rapid cost reductions in recent years (including wind, solar, battery storage, and electric vehicles) as well as relatively nascent options (including carbon capture and storage, advanced biofuels, low-carbon hydrogen, advanced nuclear, and long-duration energy storage). While net-zero policies are likely to lower fossil fuel consumption, including considerable coal and petroleum reductions, achieving net-zero emissions does not necessarily mean phasing out all fossil fuels. Model results indicate that the Inflation Reduction Act’s energy and climate provisions amplify near-term decarbonization but that net-zero policies have larger impacts on long-run outcomes. Stringent climate policy can have large fiscal impacts on tax revenue and government spending—revenues from carbon pricing and subsidies for carbon removal range from 0.1 % to 3.7 % of GDP in 2050 across models. Each dollar per metric ton carbon price leads to a 0.06 % to 0.31 % reduction in economy-wide CO 2 emissions relative to a reference scenario with current policies. Spending on energy across the economy decreases relative to today for many models under reference and net-zero policies, especially as a share of GDP, due primarily to end-use electrification and energy efficiency.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2013

Adopting Biophysics Methods in Pursuit of Biogeophysical Research: Advancing the measurement and modeling of electrical signatures of microbe-mineral transformations impacting contaminant transport

This exploratory project involved laboratory experiments to investigate three hypotheses: (H1) Physics-based modeling of low-frequency dispersions (henceforth referred to as alpha) measured in broadband dielectric spectroscopy (DS) data can quantify pore-scale geometric changes impacting contaminant transport resulting from biomineralization; (H2) Physics-based modeling of high-frequency dispersions (henceforth referred to as beta) measured in broadband dielectric spectroscopy data can quantify rates of mineral growth in/on the cell wall; (H3) Application of this measurement and modeling approach can enhance geophysical interpretation of bioremediation experiments conducted at the RIFLE IFC by providing constraints on bioremediation efficiency (biomass concentration, mineral uptake within the cell wall, biomineralization rate). We tested H1 by performing DS measurements (alpha and beta range) on iron (Fe) particles of dimensions similar to microbial cells, dispersed within agar gels over a range of Fe concentrations. We have tested the ability of the physics-based modeling to predict volume concentrations of the Fe particles by assuming that the Fe particles are polarizable inclusions within an otherwise nonpolarizable medium. We evaluated the smallest volume concentration that can be detected with the DS method. Similar experiments and modeling have been performed on the sulfate-reducing bacteria D. vulgaris. Synchrotron x-ray absorption measurements were conducted to determine the local structure of biominerals coatings on D. vulgaris which were grown in the presence of different Fe concentrations. We imaged the mineral growth on cell wall using SEM. We used dielectric spectroscopy to differentiate between iron sulfide precipitates of biotic and abiotic nature. Biotic measurements were made on D. vulgaris bacteria grown in the presence of different concentrations of iron to form different thicknesses of iron sulfide precipitates around themselves and abiotic measurements were made on different concentrations of pyrrhotite particles suspended in agar. Results show a decrease in dielectric permittivity as a function of frequency for biotic minerals and an opposite trend is observed for abiotic minerals. Our results suggest that dielectric spectroscopy offers a noninvasive and fast approach for distinguishing between abiotic and biotic mineral precipitates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2014

Adopting Biophysics Methods in Pursuit of Biogeophysical Research: Advancing the Measurement and Modeling of Electrical Signatures of Microbe-Mineral Transformations Impacting Contaminant Transport (Final Report)

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Simulation of Columbia River Floods in the Hanford Reach

Columbia River water elevations and flows in the Hanford Reach affect the environment and facilities along the shoreline, including movement of contaminants in groundwater, fish habitat, and infrastructure subject to flooding. This report describes the hydraulic simulation of hypothetical flood flows using the best available topographic and bathymetric data for the Hanford Reach and the Modular Aquatic Simulation System in 1 Dimension (MASS1) hydrodynamic model. The MASS1 model of the Hanford Reach was previously calibrated to field measurements of water surface elevations. The current model setup can be used for other studies of flow, water levels, and temperature in the Reach. The existing MASS1 channel geometry and roughness and other model configuration inputs for the Hanford Reach were used for this study, and previous calibration and validation results for the model are reprinted here for reference. The flood flows for this study were simulated by setting constant flow rates obtained from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) for the Columbia, Snake, and Yakima Rivers, and a constant water level at McNary Dam, and then running the model to steady state. The discharge levels simulated were all low-probability events; for example, a 100-year flood is one that would occur on average every 100 years, or put another way, in any given year there is a 1% chance that a discharge of that level or higher will occur. The simulated floods and their corresponding Columbia River discharges were 100-year (445,000 cfs), 500-year (520,000 cfs), and the USACE-defined Standard Project Flood (960,000 cfs). The resulting water levels from the steady-state floods can be viewed as “worst case” outcomes for the respective discharge levels. The MASS1 output for water surface elevations was converted to the North American Vertical Datum of 1988 and projected across the channel and land surface to enable mapping of the floodplain for each scenario. Floodplain maps show that for the 100-year and 500-year discharge levels, flooding is mainly confined to the topographic trench that is the river channel. The flooded area for the Standard Project Flood extends out of the channel area in some places, particularly in the 100-F Area. All of the output from the simulations have been archived and are available for future investigations in the Hanford Reach.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Masses and Ages for 230,000 LAMOST Giants, via Their Carbon and Nitrogen Abundances

We measure carbon and nitrogen abundances to a precision of ≲0.1 dex for 450,000 giant stars from their low-resolution (R∼1800) LAMOST DR2 survey spectra. We use these [C/M] and [N/M] measurements, together with empirical relations based on the APOKASC sample, to infer stellar masses and implied ages for 230,000 of these objects to 0.08 dex and 0.2 dex respectively. We use The Cannon, a data-driven approach to spectral modeling, to construct a predictive model for LAMOST spectra. Our reference set comprises 8125 stars observed in common between the APOGEE and LAMOST surveys, taking seven APOGEE DR12 labels (parameters) as ground truth: T{sub eff}, log g, [M/H], [α/M], [C/M], [N/M], and A{sub k}. We add seven colors to the Cannon model, based on the g, r, i, J, H, K, W1, W2 magnitudes from APASS, 2MASS, and WISE, which improves our constraints on T{sub eff} and log g by up to 20% and on A{sub k} by up to 70%. Cross-validation of the model demonstrates that, for high-S/N objects, our inferred labels agree with the APOGEE values to within 50 K in temperature, 0.04 mag in A{sub k}, and <0.1 dex in log g, [M/H], [C/M], [N/M], and [α/M]. We apply the model to 450,000 giants in LAMOST DR2 that have not been observed by APOGEE. This demonstrates that precise individual abundances can be measured from low-resolution spectra and represents the largest catalog to date of homogeneous stellar [C/M], [N/M], masses, and ages. As a result, we greatly increase the number and sky coverage of stars with mass and age estimates.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Extending accurate spectral induced polarization measurements into the kHz range: modelling and removal of errors from interactions between the parasitic capacitive coupling and the sample holder

SUMMARY Spectral induced polarization (SIP), describing the measurement of the frequency domain electrical impedance magnitude and phase of porous materials, has been widely used to characterize subsurface hydrological/biogeochemical properties and processes. SIP data collected at frequencies higher than 100 Hz are expected to describe the polarization of small particles providing insights into the physicochemical properties of clays, nanoparticles and microorganisms. However, the phase measurements at these high frequencies are often contaminated by errors due to the parasitic capacitive coupling of the SIP instrument, especially for lower conductivity samples. We developed a model showing the measured phase is the sum of the true sample phase and an error term ωCinZx, where ω is the angular frequency; Cin is the instrument input capacitance and Zx is a measurable impedance function related to the sample holder properties and the reference resistor. Based on this model, a new phase correction method is proposed that results in highly accurate SIP data up to 20 kHz as well as the determination of Cin. We tested the correction method using electric circuits, NaCl fluids and three unconsolidated samples (sand, sand-clay and sand-pyrite mixtures). The corrected phase for the circuit and NaCl fluid experiments showed excellent agreement with the theoretical phase response across the studied frequency range (errors <1 mrad). For unconsolidated samples, removal of errors results in phase spectra more consistent with expected polarization mechanisms, as based on phase peaks recorded for small pyrite and clay particles at high frequencies. These phase peaks could not be identified in the uncorrected data. Our approach can substantially enhance the value of the SIP method for the characterization of fine-grained sediments and rocks.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

Counterflow ignition of n-butanol at atmospheric and elevated pressures

Vital to the development of predictive combustion models is a robust understanding of the coupled effects of chemical kinetics and convective–diffusive transport at both atmospheric and elevated pressures. The current study describes a new variable-pressure non-premixed counterflow ignition experiment designed to address the need for well-characterized reference data to validate such models under conditions sensitive to both chemical and transport processes. A comprehensive characterization of system behavior is provided to demonstrate boundary condition and ignition quality as well as adherence to the assumption of quasi-one-dimensionality, and suggest limitations and best practices for counterflow ignition experiments. This effort reveals that the counterflow ignition experiment requires special attention to ignition location in order to ensure that the assumption of quasi-one-dimensionality is valid, particularly at elevated pressures. This experimental tool is then applied to the investigation of n-butanol for pressures of 1–4 atm, pressure-weighted strain rates of 200–400 s -1 , and fuel mole fractions of 0.05–0.25. Results are simulated using two n-butanol models available in the literature and used to validate and assess model performance. Comparison of experimental and numerical ignition results for n-butanol demonstrates that while existing models largely capture the trends observed with varying pressure, strain rate, and fuel loading, the models universally over-predict experimental ignition temperatures. While several transport coefficients are found to exhibit order-of-magnitude or greater sensitivities relative to reaction rates, variation of transport parameters is not able to account for the large deviations observed between experimental and numerical results. Additional comparison of ignition kernel structure and fuel breakdown pathways between two literature models suggests that an under-prediction in the radical pool growth with respect to temperature variation may be responsible for both the deviation from the experimental results and the discrepancy in ignition temperature results observed between models.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗