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At least 811 records · Page 45

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NASA NTRS1982

Crop weather models of barley and spring wheat yield for agrophysical units in North Dakota

Models based on multiple regression were developed to estimate barley yield and spring wheat yield from weather data for Agrophysical units(APU) in North Dakota. The predictor variables are derived from monthly average temperature and monthly total precipitation data at meteorological stations in the cooperative network. The models are similar in form to the previous models developed for Crop Reporting Districts (CRD). The trends and derived variables were the same and the approach to select the significant predictors was similar to that used in developing the CRD models. The APU models show sight improvements in some of the statistics of the models, e.g., explained variation. These models are to be independently evaluated and compared to the previously evaluated CRD models. The comparison will indicate the preferred model area for this application, i.e., APU or CRD.

Leduc, S.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Radar analyses of mesoscale meteorological phenomena during the AVE/VAS correlation field experiment

Radar data were collected during the selected critical times of the field experiment and subsequently analyzed for specific items. The analyses of the radar data for the AVE/VAS experiment provided statistically significant values for each of the 10 Km by 10 Km grids within radar range. The resulting information for correlation with satellite data included the following derived items that were averaged for each grid area: (1) rainfall rate in mm/hr; (2) dBZ (reflectivity) values; (3) accumulated rainfall values per hour; (4) accumulated rainfall values for a 6-hour period; (5) vertically integrated liquid water content per square meter; and (6) vertical height of the radar axis at the midpoint of each grid. Additional products derived from radar data are being investigated. An example of one such product is the derivation of the errors in integrated rainfall with different sampling periods. This is of significance for correlation with satellite data in that normally a step-function type of rainfall rate is used to derive the total rainfall over a period.

Huebner, G. L.↗

NASA NTRS1992

DIAL simulations for satellite water vapor profile measurements within the BEST project

The project BEST has been proposed by several laboratories of the French Space Agency (CNES) as part of the GEWEX program. Its objective is the study of the energy budget of the tropical system, and aims at measuring different components of the water cycle by coupling several observing systems. As part of this, Service d'Aeronomie (SA) proposed to study a Differential Absorption Lidar (DIAL) system to measure tropical water vapor profiles and to determine humidity convergence fields, when coupled with the Doppler wind lidar. We have performed simulation analyses for water vapor measurement from the selected orbit of 400 km. For these simulations, we have adopted an atmospheric model developed at SA. We have optimized, by a Monte Carlo statistical method, the system parameters and evaluated bias and standard deviation of the retrieved water vapor mixing ratio.

Chazette, P.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Comparison of wind speed measurements over the oceans with the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager and the Geosat altimeter

In order to compare wind speed estimates from the Geosat altimeter and the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I), 25 colocated passes, within 2 hours of each other, were selected and the SSM/I estimates of wind speed and atmospheric parameters extracted along the Geosat track. Both instruments and their algorithms are described. A statistical comparison of wind speed estimates is presented and the effects of the atmospheric parameters from Geosat are analyzed. Quasi-simultaneous measurements by Geosat and SSM/I, along a Geosat track in the North-East Pacific, are also presented.

Mognard, Nelly M.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Research opportunities with the Centrifuge Facility

The Centrifuge Facility on Space Station Freedom will consist of a 2.5-meter diameter Centrifuge accommodating two concentric rings of habitats and providing variable g-forces between 0.01 g and 2.0 g; modular habitats providing housing and lifesupport for rats, mice, and plants; a habitat holding system providing power, water, airflow and other utilities to several modular habitats; and a life sciences glovebox, an isolated work volume accommodating simultaneous operations by at least two scientists and providing lighting, airflow, video and data access, and other experiment support functions. The centrifuge facility will enable long-duration animal and plant microgravity research not previously possible in the NASA flight research program. It will offer unprecedented opportunities for use of on-board 1-g control populations and statistically significant numbers of specimens. On orbit 1-g controls will allow separation of the effects of microgravity from other environmental factors. Its selectable-g and simultaneous multiple-g capabilities will enable studies of gravitational thresholds, the use of artificial gravity as a countermeasure to the effects of microgravity, and ready simulation of Lunar and Martian gravities.

Funk, Glenn A.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Comparison of wind speed measurements over the oceans with the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager and the Geosat altimeter

Mognard, Nelly M.↗

NASA NTRS1997

COBE Final Report: Dirbe Celestial Calibration

We report the results of a comparative study of the COsmic Background Explorer/Diffuse InfraRed Background Experiment (COBE/DIRBE) photometric calibration over about 100 selected stellar and non-stellar calibration objects across a wide range of the DIRBE instrument dynamic range, wavelength coverage, and source temperature. A statistical comparison of the DIRBE-reported flux to the accepted values from the literature (as summarized in the CIO) provides an independent verification of the DIRBE point source calibration.

Burdick, Shawn V.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Roles of Engineering Correlations in Hypersonic Entry Boundary Layer Transition Prediction

Efforts to design and operate hypersonic entry vehicles are constrained by many considerations that involve all aspects of an entry vehicle system. One of the more significant physical phenomenon that affect entry trajectory and thermal protection system design is the occurrence of boundary layer transition from a laminar to turbulent state. During the Space Shuttle Return To Flight activity following the loss of Columbia and her crew of seven, NASA's entry aerothermodynamics community implemented an engineering correlation based framework for the prediction of boundary layer transition on the Orbiter. The methodology for this implementation relies upon similar correlation techniques that have been is use for several decades. What makes the Orbiter boundary layer transition correlation implementation unique is that a statistically significant data set was acquired in multiple ground test facilities, flight data exists to assist in establishing a better correlation and the framework was founded upon state of the art chemical nonequilibrium Navier Stokes flow field simulations. Recent entry flight testing performed with the Orbiter Discovery now provides a means to validate this engineering correlation approach to higher confidence. These results only serve to reinforce the essential role that engineering correlations currently exercise in the design and operation of entry vehicles. The framework of information related to the Orbiter empirical boundary layer transition prediction capability will be utilized to establish a fresh perspective on this role, and to discuss the characteristics which are desirable in a next generation advancement. The details of the paper will review the experimental facilities and techniques that were utilized to perform the implementation of the Orbiter RTF BLT Vsn 2 prediction capability. Statistically significant results for multiple engineering correlations from a ground testing campaign will be reviewed in order to describe why only certain correlations were selected for complete implementation to support the Shuttle Program. Historical Orbiter flight data on early boundary layer transition due to protruding gap fillers will be described in relation to the selected empirical correlations. In addition, Orbiter entry flight testing results from the BLT Flight Experiment will be discussed in relation to these correlations. Applicability of such correlations to the entry design problem will be reviewed, and finally a perspective on the desirable characteristics for a next generation capability based on high fidelity physical models will be provided.

Campbell, Charles H.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Evaluation of the Impact of AIRS Radiance and Profile Data Assimilation in Partly Cloudy Regions

Improvements to global and regional numerical weather prediction have been demonstrated through assimilation of data from NASA s Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). Current operational data assimilation systems use AIRS radiances, but impact on regional forecasts has been much smaller than for global forecasts. Retrieved profiles from AIRS contain much of the information that is contained in the radiances and may be able to reveal reasons for this reduced impact. Assimilating AIRS retrieved profiles in an identical analysis configuration to the radiances, tracking the quantity and quality of the assimilated data in each technique, and examining analysis increments and forecast impact from each data type can yield clues as to the reasons for the reduced impact. By doing this with regional scale models individual synoptic features (and the impact of AIRS on these features) can be more easily tracked. This project examines the assimilation of hyperspectral sounder data used in operational numerical weather prediction by comparing operational techniques used for AIRS radiances and research techniques used for AIRS retrieved profiles. Parallel versions of a configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) are run to examine the impact AIRS radiances and retrieved profiles. Statistical evaluation of a long-term series of forecast runs will be compared along with preliminary results of in-depth investigations for select case comparing the analysis increments in partly cloudy regions and short-term forecast impacts.

Zavodsky, Bradley↗

NASA NTRS2013

Cohesive Modeling of Transverse Cracking in Laminates with a Single Layer of Elements per Ply

This study aims to bridge the gap between classical understanding of transverse cracking in cross-ply laminates and recent computational methods for the modeling of progressive laminate failure. Specifically, the study investigates under what conditions a finite element model with cohesive X-FEM cracks can reproduce the in situ effect for the ply strength. It is shown that it is possible to do so with a single element across the thickness of the ply, provided that the interface stiffness is properly selected. The optimal value for this interface stiffness is derived with an analytical shear lag model. It is also shown that, when the appropriate statistical variation of properties has been applied, models with a single element through the thickness of a ply can predict the density of transverse matrix cracks

VanDerMeer, Frans P.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Assessing the Impact of Pre-gpm Microwave Precipitation Observations in the Goddard WRF Ensemble Data Assimilation System

The forthcoming Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission will provide next generation precipitation observations from a constellation of satellites. Since precipitation by nature has large variability and low predictability at cloud-resolving scales, the impact of precipitation data on the skills of mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) is largely affected by the characterization of background and observation errors and the representation of nonlinear cloud/precipitation physics in an NWP data assimilation system. We present a data impact study on the assimilation of precipitation-affected microwave (MW) radiances from a pre-GPM satellite constellation using the Goddard WRF Ensemble Data Assimilation System (Goddard WRF-EDAS). A series of assimilation experiments are carried out in a Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model domain of 9 km resolution in western Europe. Sensitivities to observation error specifications, background error covariance estimated from ensemble forecasts with different ensemble sizes, and MW channel selections are examined through single-observation assimilation experiments. An empirical bias correction for precipitation-affected MW radiances is developed based on the statistics of radiance innovations in rainy areas. The data impact is assessed by full data assimilation cycling experiments for a storm event that occurred in France in September 2010. Results show that the assimilation of MW precipitation observations from a satellite constellation mimicking GPM has a positive impact on the accumulated rain forecasts verified with surface radar rain estimates. The case-study on a convective storm also reveals that the accuracy of ensemble-based background error covariance is limited by sampling errors and model errors such as precipitation displacement and unresolved convective scale instability.

microwave observations↗

NASA NTRS2017

Benchmark Shock Tube Experiments for Radiative Heating Relevant to Earth Re-Entry

Detailed spectrally and spatially resolved radiance has been measured in the Electric Arc Shock Tube (EAST) facility for conditions relevant to high speed entry into a variety of atmospheres, including Earth, Venus, Titan, Mars and the Outer Planets. The tests that measured radiation relevant for Earth re-entry are the focus of this work and are taken from campaigns 47, 50, 52 and 57. These tests covered conditions from 8 km/s to 15.5 km/s at initial pressures ranging from 0.05 Torr to 1 Torr, of which shots at 0.1 and 0.2 Torr are analyzed in this paper. These conditions cover a range of points of interest for potential fight missions, including return from Low Earth Orbit, the Moon and Mars. The large volume of testing available from EAST is useful for statistical analysis of radiation data, but is problematic for identifying representative experiments for performing detailed analysis. Therefore, the intent of this paper is to select a subset of benchmark test data that can be considered for further detailed study. These benchmark shots are intended to provide more accessible data sets for future code validation studies and facility-to-facility comparisons. The shots that have been selected as benchmark data are the ones in closest agreement to a line of best fit through all of the EAST results, whilst also showing the best experimental characteristics, such as test time and convergence to equilibrium. The EAST data are presented in different formats for analysis. These data include the spectral radiance at equilibrium, the spatial dependence of radiance over defined wavelength ranges and the mean non-equilibrium spectral radiance (so-called 'spectral non-equilibrium metric'). All the information needed to simulate each experimental trace, including free-stream conditions, shock time of arrival (i.e. x-t) relation, and the spectral and spatial resolution functions, are provided.

Shock Tube↗

DOE OSTI2019

Development of Concentration Ratios and Transfer Factors for Human and Ecological Probabilistic Performance Assessments - 19781

Human and ecological risk assessments utilize concentration ratios and transfer factors to calculate contaminant concentrations in plant and animal tissues in equilibrium with soil or water (concentration ratios) or based on an animal's contaminant intake from various media (transfer factors). These ratios and factors are used to evaluate human dose via food ingestion pathways and to evaluate ecological dose to an organism. In a probabilistic performance assessment, concentration ratio and transfer factor distributions are developed for every element, and these distributions are applied across the spatial and temporal domain of the assessment. As a result, it is necessary to scale the underlying data distributions by applying the central limit theorem to develop appropriate distributions of the mean for the temporal and spatial scale of the model. Herein we discuss the methodologies for identifying and ranking references, and how to develop statistical distributions of concentration ratios and transfer factors for probabilistic performance assessment models. We also discuss factors that could be pertinent to differences when selecting references and developing distributions for human versus ecological risk assessment scenarios. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2018

Higgs and superparticle mass predictions from the landscape

Predictions for the scale of SUSY breaking from the string landscape go back at least a decade to the work of Denef and Douglas on the statistics of flux vacua. The assumption that an assortment of SUSY breaking F and D terms are present in the hidden sector, and their values are uniformly distributed in the landscape of D = 4, N = 1 effective supergravity models, leads to the expectation that the landscape pulls towards large values of soft terms favored by a power law behavior P(m soft )~m$n\atop{soft}$. On the other hand, similar to Weinberg’s prediction of the cosmological constant, one can assume an anthropic selection of weak scales not too far from the measured value characterized by mW,Z,h ~ 100 GeV. Working within a fertile patch of gravity-mediated low energy effective theories where the superpotential μ term is << m 3/2 , as occurs in models such as radiative breaking of Peccei-Quinn symmetry, this biases statistical distributions on the landscape by a cutoff on the parameter Δ EW , which measures fine-tuning in the m Z -μ mass relation. The combined effect of statistical and anthropic pulls turns out to favor low energy phenomenology that is more or less agnostic to UV physics. While a uniform selection n = 0 of soft terms produces too low a value for m h , taking n = 1 and 2 produce most probabilistically m h ~125 GeV for negative trilinear terms. For n ≥ 1, there is a pull towards split generations with m$\sim\atop{q}$,$\sim\atop{ℓ}$(1,2)~10-30 TeV whilst m$\sim\atop{t}$ 1 ~1-2 TeV. The most probable gluino mass comes in at ~ 3 - 4 TeV — apparently beyond the reach of HL-LHC (although the required quasi-degenerate higgsinos should still be within reach). We comment on consequences for SUSY collider and dark matter searches.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

SLS Integrated Modal Test Uncertainty Quantification using the Hybrid Parametric Variation Method

Uncertainty in structural loading during launch is a significant concern in the development of spacecraft and launch vehicles. Small variations in launch vehicle and payload mode shapes and their interaction can result in significant variation in system loads. In many cases involving large aerospace systems it is difficult, not economical, or impossible to perform a system modal test. However, it is still vital to obtain test results that can be compared with analytical predictions to validate models. Instead, the “Building Block Approach” is used in which system components are tested individually. Component models are correlated and updated to agree as best they can with test results. The Space Launch System consists of a number of components that are assembled into a launch vehicle. Finite element models of the components are developed, reduced to Hurty/Craig-Bampton models and assembled to represent different phases of flight. The only opportunity to obtain modal test data from an assembled Space Launch System will be during the Integrated Modal Test. There is always uncertainty in every model, which flows into uncertainty in predicted system results. Uncertainty Quantification is used to determine statistical bounds on prediction accuracy based on model uncertainty. For the Space Launch System, model uncertainty is at the Hurty/Craig-Bampton component level. Uncertainty in the Hurty/Craig-Bampton components is quantified using the hybrid parametric variation approach that combines parametric and nonparametric uncertainty. Uncertainty in model form is one of the biggest contributors to uncertainty in complex built-up structures. This type of uncertainty cannot be represented by variations infinite element model input parameters and thus cannot be included in a parametric approach. However, model-form uncertainty can be modeled using a nonparametric approach based on random matrix theory. The hybrid parametric variation method requires the selection of dispersion values for the Hurty/Craig-Bampton fixed-interface eigenvalues, and the Hurty/Craig-Bampton stiffness matrices. Component test/analysis frequency error is used to identify the fixed-interface eigenvalue dispersions, while test/analysis cross-orthogonality is used to identify stiffness dispersion values. The hybrid parametric variation uncertainty quantification approach is applied to the Space Launch System Integrated Modal Test configuration. Monte Carlo analysis is performed, and statistics are determined for modal correlation metrics, frequency response from Integrated Modal Test shakers to selected accelerometers, as well as other metrics for determining how well target modes are excited and identified. If the predicted uncertainty envelopes future Integrated Modal Test results, then there will be increased confidence in the utility of the component-based hybrid parametric variation uncertainty quantification approach.

Uncertainty Quantification↗

DOE OSTI2019

Use of polarimetric radar measurements to constrain simulated convective cell evolution: a pilot study with Lagrangian tracking

Abstract. To probe the potential value of a radar-driven field campaign to constrain simulation of isolated convection subject to a strong aerosol perturbation, convective cells observed by the operational KHGX weather radar in the vicinity of Houston, Texas, are examined individually and statistically. Cells observed in a single case study of onshore flow conditions during July 2013 are first examined and compared with cells in a regional model simulation. Observed and simulated cells are objectively identified and tracked from observed or calculated positive specific differential phase ( K DP ) above the melting level, which is related to the presence of supercooled liquid water. Several observed and simulated cells are subjectively selected for further examination. Below the melting level, we compare sequential cross sections of retrieved and simulated raindrop size distribution parameters. Above the melting level, we examine time series of K DP and radar differential reflectivity ( Z DR ) statistics from observations and calculated from simulated supercooled rain properties, alongside simulated vertical wind and supercooled rain mixing ratio statistics. Results indicate that the operational weather radar measurements offer multiple constraints on the properties of simulated convective cells, with substantial value added from derived K DP and retrieved rain properties. The value of collocated three-dimensional lightning mapping array measurements, which are relatively rare in the continental US, supports the choice of Houston as a suitable location for future field studies to improve the simulation and understanding of convective updraft physics. However, rapid evolution of cells between routine volume scans motivates consideration of adaptive scan strategies or radar imaging technologies to amend operational weather radar capabilities. A 3-year climatology of isolated cell tracks, prepared using a more efficient algorithm, yields additional relevant information. Isolated cells are found within the KHGX domain on roughly 40 % of days year-round, with greatest concentration in the northwest quadrant, but roughly 5-fold more cells occur during June through September. During this enhanced occurrence period, the cells initiate following a strong diurnal cycle that peaks in the early afternoon, typically follow a south-to-north flow, and dissipate within 1 h, consistent with the case study examples. Statistics indicate that ~  150 isolated cells initiate and dissipate within 70 km of the KHGX radar during the enhanced occurrence period annually, and roughly 10 times as many within 200 km, suitable for multi-instrument Lagrangian observation strategies. In addition to ancillary meteorological and aerosol measurements, robust vertical wind speed retrievals would add substantial value to a radar-driven field campaign.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2019

Use of Polarimetric Radar Measurements to Constrain Simulated Convective Cell Evolution: A Pilot Study with Lagrangian Tracking

To probe the potential value of a radar-driven field campaign to constrain simulation of isolated convection subject to a strong aerosol perturbation, convective cells observed by the operational KHGX weather radar in the vicinity of Houston, Texas, are examined individually and statistically. Cells observed in a single case study of onshore flow conditions during July 2013 are first examined and compared with cells in a regional model simulation. Observed and simulated cells are objectively identified and tracked from observed or calculated positive specific differential phase (K(sub DP)) above the melting level, which is related to the presence of supercooled liquid water. Several observed and simulated cells are subjectively selected for further examination. Below the melting level, we compare sequential cross sections of retrieved and simulated raindrop size distribution parameters. Above the melting level, we examine time series of KDP and radar differential reflectivity (Z(sub DR)) statistics from observations and calculated from simulated supercooled rain properties, alongside simulated vertical wind and supercooled rain mixing ratio statistics. Results indicate that the operational weather radar measurements offer multiple constraints on the properties of simulated convective cells, with substantial value added from derived K(sub DP) and retrieved rain properties. The value of collocated three-dimensional lightning mapping array measurements, which are relatively rare in the continental US, supports the choice of Houston as a suitable location for future field studies to improve the simulation and understanding of convective updraft physics. However, rapid evolution of cells between routine volume scans motivates consideration of adaptive scan strategies or radar imaging technologies to amend operational weather radar capabilities. A 3-year climatology of isolated cell tracks, prepared using a more efficient algorithm, yields additional relevant information. Isolated cells are found within the KHGX domain on roughly 40 % of days year-round, with greatest concentration in the northwest quadrant, but roughly 5-fold more cells occur during June through September. During this enhanced occurrence period, the cells initiate following a strong diurnal cycle that peaks in the early afternoon, typically follow a south-to-north flow, and dissipate within 1 h, consistent with the case study examples. Statistics indicate that ∼ 150 isolated cells initiate and dissipate within 70 km of the KHGX radar during the enhanced occurrence period annually, and roughly 10 times as many within 200 km, suitable for multi-instrument Lagrangian observation strategies. In addition to ancillary meteorological and aerosol measurements, robust vertical wind speed retrievals would add substantial value to a radar-driven field campaign.

Fridlind, Ann M.↗

NASA NTRS1987

The regression intersection method of adjusting image data for band ratioing

Estimation of the combined path radiance and sensor offset terms is essential in adjusting multispectral image radiance measurements for band ratioing. Commonly applied techniques for making this estimate have required assumptions or ancillary information regarding the reflectance properties of surface materials. This paper presents a technique that is unique in that it provides absolute (not just relative) statistically-derived estimates without the use of ancillary information. It is termed the regression intersection method (RIM). RIM is based on contrasts between the spectral properties of various homogeneous areas in rugged terrain. These areas are selected by examination of the image data alone. Bispectral regression (first principal component) lines are determined for each area and are projected, in pairs, to intersection points. Ideally, the coordinates of these points must equal the measurements for zero ground radiance since that is the only condition under which spectrally different materials can have the same radiance values. The median result from several site-pair and band-pair comparisons is used in order to statistically mitigate noise and minor variations due to natural variability. Tests show that the method is successful in determining correction values for the image data that result in maximum removal of the topographic effect in ratio images.

Crippen, Robert E.↗