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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 811 records · Page 45
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2015

Lattice Boltzmann simulation of immiscible fluid displacement in porous media: Homogeneous versus heterogeneous pore network

Injection of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) into geological formations is a promising approach to reduce greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. Predicting the amount of CO{sub 2} that can be captured and its long-term storage stability in subsurface requires a fundamental understanding of multiphase displacement phenomena at the pore scale. In this paper, the lattice Boltzmann method is employed to simulate the immiscible displacement of a wetting fluid by a non-wetting one in two microfluidic flow cells, one with a homogeneous pore network and the other with a randomly heterogeneous pore network. We have identified three different displacement patterns, namely, stable displacement, capillary fingering, and viscous fingering, all of which are strongly dependent upon the capillary number (Ca), viscosity ratio (M), and the media heterogeneity. The non-wetting fluid saturation (S{sub nw}) is found to increase nearly linearly with logCa for each constant M. Increasing M (viscosity ratio of non-wetting fluid to wetting fluid) or decreasing the media heterogeneity can enhance the stability of the displacement process, resulting in an increase in S{sub nw}. In either pore networks, the specific interfacial length is linearly proportional to S{sub nw} during drainage with equal proportionality constant for all cases excluding those revealing considerable viscous fingering. Our numerical results confirm the previous experimental finding that the steady state specific interfacial length exhibits a linear dependence on S{sub nw} for either favorable (M ≥ 1) or unfavorable (M < 1) displacement, and the slope is slightly higher for the unfavorable displacement.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Thermal and Well Flow Performance of Closed-Loop Geothermal in the Wattenberg Area: Preprint

Closed-loop geothermal systems provide an alternative to resource-constrained hydrothermal systems and stimulation-intensive enhanced geothermal systems. In this work, we apply the slender-body theory (SBT) model, to simulate the well flow and heat transfer performance of U-loop well designs drilled in the Wattenberg area of the Denver-Julesburg Basin. Three U-loop well patterns are investigated including a single, double, and multi-lateral design. The subsurface within area is characterized by deep, hot (> 200degreesC) igneous/metamorphic basement rock underlying multiple sedimentary formations. The lateral section(s) of the U-loop lies within a target depth of 6 km where temperatures are estimated to approach 300degreesC. As a base case, conduction-only heat transfer is investigated through simulations with the SBT model within U-loops with open-hole laterals that exchange heat directly with the hot dry rock using water as a working fluid. The utilization of supercritical CO2 as a heat transfer fluid is also considered. For each scenario, the system performance in terms of annual heat production and temperature profile over a 20-year project lifetime are assessed. Also, the levelized costs of heat and electricity (LCOH and LCOE) are determined using a top-down technoeconomic analysis model. The results show that the performance and cost optimized U-loop design is one having an injection-production well spacing of 1,000 meters with ten 50-meter-spaced laterals that traverse a subsurface system with a temperature gradient of 60degreesC/km. By injecting 20 degreesC-water at a rate of 60 kg/s through this loop, an average heat production of 19 MWth can be achieved, resulting in an LCOE and LCOH of $136/MWh and $1.53/GJ, respectively, over a 20-year project life.

closed-loop geothermal↗
DOE OSTI2012

Phase II Investigation at the Former CCC/USDA Grain Storage Facility in Savannah, Missouri

From approximately 1949 until 1970, the Commodity Credit Corporation of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (CCC/USDA) operated a grain storage facility on federally owned property approximately 0.25 mi northwest of Savannah, Missouri. During this time, commercial grain fumigants containing carbon tetrachloride were commonly used by the CCC/USDA and the private grain storage industry to preserve grain in their facilities. In November 1998, carbon tetrachloride was detected in a private well (Morgan) roughly 50 ft south of the former CCC/USDA facility, as a result of statewide screening of private wells near former CCC/USDA facilities, conducted in Missouri by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA 1999). The 1998 and subsequent investigations by the EPA and the Missouri Department of Natural Resources (MDNR) confirmed the presence of carbon tetrachloride in the Morgan well, as well as in a second well on property currently owned by the Missouri Department of Transportation (MoDOT), directly east of the former CCC/USDA facility. The identified concentrations in these two wells were above the EPA maximum contaminant level (MCL) and the Missouri risk-based corrective action default target level (DTL) values of 5.0 μg/L for carbon tetrachloride in water used for domestic purposes (EPA 1999; MDNR 2000a,b, 2006). Because the observed contamination in the Morgan and MoDOT wells might be linked to the past use of carbon tetrachloride-based fumigants at its former grain storage facility, the CCC/USDA is conducting an investigation to (1) characterize the source(s), extent, and factors controlling the subsurface distribution and movement of carbon tetrachloride and (2) evaluate the potential risks to human health, public welfare, and the environment posed by the contamination. This work is being performed in accord with an Intergovernmental Agreement established in 2007 between the Farm Service Agency of the USDA and the MDNR, to address carbon tetrachloride contamination potentially associated with a number of former CCC/USDA grain storage facilities in Missouri. The site characterization at Savannah is being conducted on behalf of the CCC/USDA by the Environmental Science Division of Argonne National Laboratory. The investigation is being conducted in phases, so that information obtained and interpretations developed during each incremental stage can be used most effectively to guide subsequent phases of the program. Phase II objectives: Investigate the more detailed characteristics of groundwater flow in the vicinity of the former CCC/USDA facility and the contaminated Morgan and MoDOT private wells; Obtain additional information on the vertical and lateral distribution and concentrations of carbon tetrachloride in groundwater in the vicinity of the former CCC/USDA facility and the contaminated Morgan and MoDOT private wells; Investigate further for possible evidence of carbon tetrachloride in the subsurface (vadose zone) and deeper soils beneath the former CCC/USDA facility, as well as in the vicinity of the contaminated MoDOT private well.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

Structure and Function of Subsurface Microbial Communities Affecting Radionuclide Transport and Bio-immobilization

The goal of this research project was to employ a multi-disciplinary team to investigate the DOE-ERSP Field Research Center at Oak Ridge, TN (ORFRC), which contains well-defined subsurface contaminant plumes with contrasting pH and redox conditions. Part of the team would pursue cultivation-independent characterization of the microbial groups catalyzing relevant biogeochemical reactions to gain an understanding of the physiological mechanisms controlling radionuclide immobilization. Other team members would focus on cultivation and physiological characterization of model microorganisms from the site using single cell sorting methods. In order to understand and predict the in situ function of microbial communities, the PIs hope to develop new strategies for cultivation and to couple phylogenetic structure with microbial community function. Specific objectives by the Rutgers group was to discern the active bacteria at the Oak Ridge Research Field Challenge Site: 1. by applying stable isotope probing techniques to enrichment cultures developed from Florida State University; 2. by fingerprinting intact rRNA from groundwater samples obtained along the various flow pathways at ORFRC; and 3. by identifying functional genes for N and S cycling along the flowpaths to aid in detection of active bacteria.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Geothermal play fairway analysis, part 1: Example from the Snake River Plain, Idaho

The Snake River Plain (SRP) volcanic province overlies the track of the Yellowstone hotspot, a thermal anomaly that extends deep into the mantle. Most of the area is underlain by a basaltic volcanic province that overlies a mid-crustal intrusive complex, which in turn provides the long-term heat flux needed to sustain geothermal systems. Previous studies have identified several known geothermal resource areas within the SRP. For the geothermal study presented herein, our goals were to: (1) adapt the methodology of Play Fairway Analysis (PFA) for geothermal exploration to create a formal basis for its application to geothermal systems, (2) assemble relevant data for the SRP from publicly available and private sources, and (3) build a geothermal PFA model for the SRP and identify the most promising plays, using GIS-based software tools that are standard in the petroleum industry. The study focused on identifying three critical resource parameters for exploitable hydrothermal systems in the SRP: heat source, reservoir and recharge permeability, and cap or seal. Data included in the compilation for heat source were heat flow, distribution and ages of volcanic vents, groundwater temperatures, thermal springs and wells, helium isotope anomalies, and reservoir temperatures estimated using geothermometry. Reservoir and recharge permeability was inferred from the analysis of stress orientations and magnitudes, post-Miocene faults, and subsurface structural lineaments based on magnetics and gravity data. Data for cap or seal included the distribution of impermeable lake sediments and clay-seal associated with hydrothermal alteration below the regional aquifer. These data were used to compile Common Risk Segment maps for heat, permeability, and seal, which were combined to create a Composite Common Risk Segment map for all southern Idaho that reflects the risk associated with geothermal resource exploration and identifies favorable resource tracks. Our regional assessment indicated that undiscovered geothermal resources may be located in several areas of the SRP. Two of these areas, the western SRP and Camas Prairie, were selected for more detailed assessment, during which heat, permeability, and seal were evaluated using newly collected field data and smaller grid parameters to refine the location of potential resources. These higher resolution assessments illustrate the flexibility of our approach over a range of scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

Petrologic and Petrophysical Evaluation of the Dallas Center Structure, Iowa, for Compressed Air Energy Storage in the Mount Simon Sandstone

The Iowa Stored Energy Plant Agency selected a geologic structure at Dallas Center, Iowa, for evaluation of subsurface compressed air energy storage. The site was rejected due to lower-than-expected and heterogeneous permeability of the target reservoir, lower-than-desired porosity, and small reservoir volume. In an initial feasibility study, permeability and porosity distributions of flow units for the nearby Redfield gas storage field were applied as analogue values for numerical modeling of the Dallas Center Structure. These reservoir data, coupled with an optimistic reservoir volume, produced favorable results. However, it was determined that the Dallas Center Structure cannot be simplified to four zones of high, uniform permeabilities. Updated modeling using field and core data for the site provided unfavorable results for air fill-up. This report presents Sandia National Laboratories' petrologic and petrophysical analysis of the Dallas Center Structure that aids in understanding why the site was not suitable for gas storage.

Heath, Jason E.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Influence of Agricultural Managed Aquifer Recharge (AgMAR) and Stratigraphic Heterogeneities on Nitrate Reduction in the Deep Subsurface

Agricultural managed aquifer recharge (AgMAR) is a strategy whereby surface water is used to intentionally flood croplands to recharge underlying aquifers. However, nitrate (NO 3 - ) contamination in agriculturally intensive regions poses a threat to groundwater resources under AgMAR. We use a reactive transport model to understand the effects of AgMAR management strategies (i.e., by varying the frequency, duration between flooding events, and amount of water) on NO 3 - leaching to groundwater under different stratigraphic configurations and antecedent moisture conditions. We examine the potential of denitrification and nitrogen retention in deep vadose zone sediments (~15 m) using variable AgMAR application rates on two-dimensional representations of differently textured soils, soils with discontinuous bands/channels, and with preferential flow paths characteristic of agricultural fields. Simulations indicate finer textured sediments, alone or embedded within/adjacent to high flow regions, are important reducing zones providing conditions needed for denitrification. Simulation results suggest that applying water all-at-once rather than in increments transports higher concentrations of NO 3 - deeper into the profile, which may exacerbate groundwater quality. This transport into deeper depths can be aggravated by wetter antecedent soil moisture conditions. However, applying water all-at-once also increases denitrification within the vadose zone by promoting anoxic conditions. We conclude that AgMAR can be designed to enhance denitrification in the subsurface and reduce NO 3 - leaching to groundwater, while specifically accounting for lithologic heterogeneity, antecedent soil moisture conditions, and depth to the water table. Our findings are potentially relevant to other systems that experience flooding inundation such as floodplains and dedicated recharge basins.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Detecting subsurface fluid leaks in real-time using injection and production rates

Here, CO 2 injection into geologic formations for either enhanced oil recovery or carbon storage introduces a risk for undesired fluid leakage into overlying groundwater or to the surface. Despite decades of subsurface CO 2 production and injection, the technologies and methods for detecting CO 2 leaks are still costly and prone to large uncertainties. This is especially true for pressure-based monitoring methods, which require the use of simplified geological and reservoir flow models to simulate the pressure behavior as well as background noise affecting pressure measurements.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2019

Exploring Plasma Heating in the Current Sheet Region in a Three-dimensional Coronal Mass Ejection Simulation

We simulate a coronal mass ejection using a three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic code that includes coronal heating, thermal conduction, and radiative cooling in the energy equation. The magnetic flux distribution at 1 Rs is produced by a localized subsurface dipole superimposed on a global dipole field, mimicking the presence of an active region within the global corona. Transverse electric fields are applied near the polarity inversion line to introduce a transverse magnetic field, followed by the imposition of a converging flow to form and destabilize a flux rope, producing an eruption. We examine the quantities responsible for plasma heating and cooling during the eruption, including thermal conduction, radiation, adiabatic effects, coronal heating, and ohmic heating. We find that ohmic heating is an important contributor to hot temperatures in the current sheet region early in the eruption, but in the late phase, adiabatic compression plays an important role in heating the plasma there. Thermal conduction also plays an important role in the transport of thermal energy away from the current sheet region throughout the reconnection process, producing a “thermal halo” and widening the region of high temperatures. We simulate emission from solar telescopes for this eruption and find that there is evidence for emission from heated plasma above the flare loops late in the eruption, when the adiabatic heating is the dominant heating term. These results provide an explanation for hot supra-arcade plasma sheets that are often observed in X-rays and extreme ultraviolet wavelengths during the decay phase of large flares.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

The effect of original and initial saturation on residual nonwetting phase capillary trapping efficiency

Injection of supercritical carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) into geological formations is a strategy for both atmospheric greenhouse gas reduction (climate change mitigation) and enhanced oil recovery. To understand CO 2 trapping efficiency, the capillary trapping behaviors that immobilize subsurface fluids were analyzed at the pore-scale using pairs of proxy fluids representing the range of in situ nonwetting and wetting fluid properties encountered in geologic storage reservoirs. The pairs of fluids were cycled through imbibition and drainage processes using a flow cell apparatus containing a sintered glass bead column. Computed x-ray microtomography (microCT) was used to identify immobilized nonwetting fluid after imbibition and drainage events. From microCT images, the trapped residual (post-secondary imbibition) nonwetting phase was spatially correlated to both the original (post-primary imbibition) and the initial (post-primary drainage) nonwetting phase; this relationship is referred to here as the original saturation dependence (SO-dependence) and initial saturation dependence (SI-dependence), respectively. Significant trends of decreasing SO- and SI-dependence with increasing wetting and nonwetting fluid phase viscosities were observed. This finding implies that the amount of CO 2 injected and ultimately trapped is dependent on the nonwetting phase (e.g. oil or gas) already present in the formation, as well as on the manner in which supercritical CO 2 is initially injected, which are factors not considered in current trapping models. To explore the potential effect that varying viscosity and interfacial tension (IFT) might have on this process, we report on a variety of fluid pairs with different viscosities and IFT.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2018

Development and evaluation of a variably saturated flow model in the global E3SM Land Model (ELM) version 1.0

Abstract. Improving global-scale model representations of near-surface soil moisture and groundwater hydrology is important for accurately simulating terrestrial processes and predicting climate change effects on water resources. Most existing land surface models, including the default E3SM Land Model (ELMv0), which we modify here, routinely employ different formulations for water transport in the vadose and phreatic zones. Clark et al. (2015) identified a variably saturated Richards equation flow model as an important capability for improving simulation of coupled soil moisture and shallow groundwater dynamics. In this work, we developed the Variably Saturated Flow Model (VSFM) in ELMv1 to unify the treatment of soil hydrologic processes in the unsaturated and saturated zones. VSFM was tested on three benchmark problems and results were evaluated against observations and an existing benchmark model (PFLOTRAN). The ELMv1-VSFM's subsurface drainage parameter, fd, was calibrated to match an observationally constrained and spatially explicit global water table depth (WTD) product. Optimal spatially explicit fd values were obtained for 79 % of global 1.9∘ × 2.5∘ grid cells, while the remaining 21 % of global grid cells had predicted WTD deeper than the observationally constrained estimate. Comparison with predictions using the default fd value demonstrated that calibration significantly improved predictions, primarily by allowing much deeper WTDs. Model evaluation using the International Land Model Benchmarking package (ILAMB) showed that improvements in WTD predictions did not degrade model skill for any other metrics. We evaluated the computational performance of the VSFM model and found that the model is about 30 % more expensive than the default ELMv0 with an optimal processor layout. The modular software design of VSFM not only provides flexibility to configure the model for a range of problem setups but also allows for building the model independently of the ELM code, thus enabling straightforward testing of the model's physics against other models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A statistical and simulation-informed model for estimating permeability from pore size distribution in saturated geomaterials

Accurate permeability estimation is essential across subsurface engineering applications but remains challenging due to the complex pore structures of natural geomaterials. Traditional empirical methods and simplified theoretical models often inadequately capture the role of pore size distribution and connectivity. Here, this study develops a statistical and simulation-informed permeability model that collapses pore-scale complexity into a compact scaling of the form k = αϕμ d 2 , where ϕ is porosity, μ d is mean pore size, and α is a weakly varying coefficient. By combining pore network simulations with statistical analysis of unimodal and bimodal pore size distributions, we identify three key findings: (i) permeability is much more sensitive to mean pore size than to porosity; (ii) across extensive datasets, the ratio σ d /μ d (standard deviation to mean) clusters around a characteristic value ∼0.4, allowing the effects of the full pore size distribution to be represented by μ d and a narrowly varying α ≈ 0.05; and (iii) for bimodal systems, there exists a critical fraction of small pores ∼0.78 above which flow becomes small-pore dominated, enabling the definition of an effective flow-controlling pore population and facilitating simplified permeability estimation for such systems. The resulting model, which requires only porosity and a representative mean pore size as inputs, is validated against comprehensive experimental datasets (>1700 samples) spanning diverse soils and rocks and achieves good predictive accuracy. Overall, this work provides a physically grounded yet practically simple permeability estimator suitable for subsurface engineering, environmental protection, and resource management applications.

Permeability↗
DOE OSTI2017

Regression-based reduced-order models to predict transient thermal output for enhanced geothermal systems

Reduced-order modeling is a promising approach, as many phenomena can be described by a few parameters/mechanisms. An advantage and attractive aspect of a reduced-order model is that it is computational inexpensive to evaluate when compared to running a high-fidelity numerical simulation. A reduced-order model takes couple of seconds to run on a laptop while a high-fidelity simulation may take couple of hours to run on a high-performance computing cluster. The goal of this paper is to assess the utility of regression-based reduced-order models (ROMs) developed from high-fidelity numerical simulations for predicting transient thermal power output for an enhanced geothermal reservoir while explicitly accounting for uncertainties in the subsurface system and site-specific details. Numerical simulations are performed based on equally spaced values in the specified range of model parameters. Key sensitive parameters are then identified from these simulations, which are fracture zone permeability, well/skin factor, bottom hole pressure, and injection flow rate. We found the fracture zone permeability to be the most sensitive parameter. The fracture zone permeability along with time, are used to build regression-based ROMs for the thermal power output. The ROMs are trained and validated using detailed physics-based numerical simulations. Finally, predictions from the ROMs are then compared with field data. We propose three different ROMs with different levels of model parsimony, each describing key and essential features of the power production curves. The coefficients in the proposed regression-based ROMs are developed by minimizing a non-linear least-squares misfit function using the Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm. The misfit function is based on the difference between numerical simulation data and reduced-order model. ROM-1 is constructed based on polynomials up to fourth order. ROM-1 is able to accurately reproduce the power output of numerical simulations for low values of permeabilities and certain features of the field-scale data. ROM-2 is a model with more analytical functions consisting of polynomials up to order eight, exponential functions and smooth approximations of Heaviside functions, and accurately describes the field-data. At higher permeabilities, ROM-2 reproduces numerical results better than ROM-1, however, there is a considerable deviation from numerical results at low fracture zone permeabilities. ROM-3 consists of polynomials up to order ten, and is developed by taking the best aspects of ROM-1 and ROM-2. ROM-1 is relatively parsimonious than ROM-2 and ROM-3, while ROM-2 overfits the data. ROM-3 on the other hand, provides a middle ground for model parsimony. Based on R 2 -values for training, validation, and prediction data sets we found that ROM-3 is better model than ROM-2 and ROM-1. For predicting thermal drawdown in EGS applications, where high fracture zone permeabilities (typically greater than 10 –15 m 2 ) are desired, ROM-2 and ROM-3 outperform ROM-1. As per computational time, all the ROMs are 10 4 times faster when compared to running a high-fidelity numerical simulation. In conclusion, this makes the proposed regression-based ROMs attractive for real-time EGS applications because they are fast and provide reasonably good predictions for thermal power output.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Geochemistry and Strontium Isotopes for Coal Creek Watershed, Colorado, 2021-2022

The geochemistry and strontium isotope data for Coal Creek Watershed, Colorado, consists of cation, anion, and 87Sr/87Sr isotope values from samples collected at 8 stream location along Coal Creek, samples from two groundwater springs within the watershed, and a shallow subsurface piezometer. All stream and spring samples were collected between June and October, 2021, and the shallow, near stream piezometer sample was collected in July of 2022. These data were collected to evaluate how groundwater contributions to Coal Creek originating from shallow vs deep flow paths respond seasonal drying. Understanding of groundwater-surface water interactions in montane systems in critical for the future of water availability in the Western US as groundwater contributions are expected to become more important for sustaining summer stream flows. This data package contains: (1) a csv of all cation samples; (2) a csv of all anion samples; (3) a csv of all 87Sr/87Sr isotope samples; and (4) a csv of locations for each sampling site. The dataset additionally includes a file-level metadata (flmd.csv) file that lists each file contained in the dataset with associated metadata; and a data dictionary (dd.csv) file that contains column/row headers used throughout the files along with a definition, units, and data type.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

2015 Groundwater Monitoring Report Project Shoal Area: Subsurface Correction Unit 447

The Project Shoal Area in Nevada was the site of a 12-kiloton-yield underground nuclear test in 1963. Although the surface of the site has been remediated, investigation of groundwater contamination resulting from the test is still in the corrective action process. Annual sampling and hydraulic head monitoring are conducted at the site as part of the subsurface corrective action strategy. The corrective action strategy is currently focused on revising the site conceptual model (SCM) and evaluating the adequacy of the monitoring well network. Some aspects of the SCM are known; however, two major concerns are the uncertainty in the groundwater flow direction and the cause of rising water levels in site wells west of the shear zone. Water levels have been rising in the site wells west of the shear zone since the first hydrologic characterization wells were installed in 1996. Although water levels in wells west of the shear zone continue to rise, the rate of increase is less than in previous years. The SCM will be revised, and an evaluation of the groundwater monitoring network will be conducted when water levels at the site have stabilized to the agreement of both the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Legacy Management and the Nevada Division of Environmental Protection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Vadose Zone Transport of Tritium and Nitrate under Ponded Water Conditions

Vadose zone transport of tritium and nitrate can be important considerations at radioactive waste sites, landfills, or areas with industrial impacts. These contaminants are of particular concern because they typically have a relatively higher mobility in the subsurface compared to other compounds. Here, we describe a semiarid site with tritium and nitrate contamination involving a manmade ponded water source above a thick unsaturated zone at Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico, USA. This study demonstrates the value of vadose zone flow and transport modeling for the development of field investigation plans (i.e., identifying optimal borehole locations and depths for contaminant characterization), and how a combination of modeling with isotope and geochemical measurements can provide insight into how tritium and nitrate transport in the vadose zone in semiarid environments. Modeling results suggest that at this location, tritium transport is well predicted by classical multiphase theory. Our work expands the demonstrated usefulness of a standard tritium conceptual model to sites with ponded surface conditions and agrees with previous results where a standard model was able to explain the evolution of a tritium plume at an arid waste disposal site. In addition, depth-based analyses of δ 18 O and δ 2 H of pore waters helped confirm the extent of pond infiltration into the vadose zone, and the δ 15 N of nitrate showed that the contaminant release history of the site was different than originally assumed.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

CaCO 3 Precipitation, Transport and Sensing in Porous Media with In Situ Generation of Reactants

Ureolytically driven calcite precipitation is a promising approach for inducing subsurface mineral precipitation, but engineered application requires the ability to control and predict precipitate distribution. To study the coupling between reactant transport and precipitate distribution, columns with defined zones of immobilized urease were used to examine the distribution of calcium carbonate precipitation along the flow path, at two different initial flow rates. As expected, with slower flow precipitate was concentrated toward the upstream end of the enzyme zone and with higher flow the solid was more uniformly distributed over the enzyme zone. Under constant hydraulic head conditions the flow rate decreased as precipitates decreased porosity and permeability. The hydrolysis/precipitation zone was expected to become compressed in the upstream direction. However, apparent reductions in the urea hydrolysis rate and changes in the distribution of enzyme activity, possibly due to CaCO 3 precipitate hindering urea transport to the enzyme, or enzyme mobilization, mitigated reaction zone compression. Co-injected strontium was expected to be sequestered by coprecipitation with CaCO 3 , but the results suggested that coprecipitation was not an effective sequestration mechanism in this system. In addition, spectral induced polarization (SIP) was used to monitor the spatial and temporal evolution of the reaction zone.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Projecting Antarctica's contribution to future sea level rise from basal ice shelf melt using linear response functions of 16 ice sheet models (LARMIP-2)

Abstract. The sea level contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet constitutes a large uncertainty in future sea level projections. Here we apply a linear response theory approach to 16 state-of-the-art ice sheet models to estimate the Antarctic ice sheet contribution from basal ice shelf melting within the 21st century. The purpose of this computation is to estimate the uncertainty of Antarctica's future contribution to global sea level rise that arises from large uncertainty in the oceanic forcing and the associated ice shelf melting. Ice shelf melting is considered to be a major if not the largest perturbation of the ice sheet's flow into the ocean. However, by computing only the sea level contribution in response to ice shelf melting, our study is neglecting a number of processes such as surface-mass-balance-related contributions. In assuming linear response theory, we are able to capture complex temporal responses of the ice sheets, but we neglect any self-dampening or self-amplifying processes. This is particularly relevant in situations in which an instability is dominating the ice loss. The results obtained here are thus relevant, in particular wherever the ice loss is dominated by the forcing as opposed to an internal instability, for example in strong ocean warming scenarios. In order to allow for comparison the methodology was chosen to be exactly the same as in an earlier study (Levermann et al., 2014) but with 16 instead of 5 ice sheet models. We include uncertainty in the atmospheric warming response to carbon emissions (full range of CMIP5 climate model sensitivities), uncertainty in the oceanic transport to the Southern Ocean (obtained from the time-delayed and scaled oceanic subsurface warming in CMIP5 models in relation to the global mean surface warming), and the observed range of responses of basal ice shelf melting to oceanic warming outside the ice shelf cavity. This uncertainty in basal ice shelf melting is then convoluted with the linear response functions of each of the 16 ice sheet models to obtain the ice flow response to the individual global warming path. The model median for the observational period from 1992 to 2017 of the ice loss due to basal ice shelf melting is 10.2 mm, with a likely range between 5.2 and 21.3 mm. For the same period the Antarctic ice sheet lost mass equivalent to 7.4 mm of global sea level rise, with a standard deviation of 3.7 mm (Shepherd et al., 2018) including all processes, especially surface-mass-balance changes. For the unabated warming path, Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5), we obtain a median contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to global mean sea level rise from basal ice shelf melting within the 21st century of 17 cm, with a likely range (66th percentile around the mean) between 9 and 36 cm and a very likely range (90th percentile around the mean) between 6 and 58 cm. For the RCP2.6 warming path, which will keep the global mean temperature below 2 ∘C of global warming and is thus consistent with the Paris Climate Agreement, the procedure yields a median of 13 cm of global mean sea level contribution. The likely range for the RCP2.6 scenario is between 7 and 24 cm, and the very likely range is between 4 and 37 cm. The structural uncertainties in the method do not allow for an interpretation of any higher uncertainty percentiles. We provide projections for the five Antarctic regions and for each model and each scenario separately. The rate of sea level contribution is highest under the RCP8.5 scenario. The maximum within the 21st century of the median value is 4 cm per decade, with a likely range between 2 and 9 cm per decade and a very likely range between 1 and 14 cm per decade.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗