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Space Mission Options for Reconnaissance and Mitigation of Asteroid 2024 YR4

Near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR 4 was discovered on 2024-12-27 and its probability of Earth impact in December 2032 peaked at about 3% on 2025-02-18. Additional observations ruled out Earth impact by 2025-02-23. However, the probability of lunar impact in December 2032 then rose, reaching about 4% by the end of the apparition in May 2025. James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) observations on 2025-03-26 estimated the asteroid's diameter at 60 +/- 7 m. Studies of 2024 YR 4 's potential lunar impact effects suggest lunar ejecta could increase micrometeoroid debris flux in low Earth orbit up to 1000 times above background levels over just a few days, possibly threatening astronauts and spacecraft. In this work, we present options for space missions to 2024 YR 4 that could be utilized if lunar impact is confirmed. We cover flyby & rendezvous reconnaissance, deflection, and robust disruption of the asteroid. We examine both rapid-response and delayed launch options through 2032. We evaluate chemical and solar electric propulsion, various launch vehicles, optimized deep space maneuvers, and gravity assists. Re-tasking extant spacecraft and using built spacecraft not yet launched are also considered. The best reconnaissance mission options launch in late 2028, leaving only approximately three years for development at the time of this writing in August 2025. Deflection missions were assessed and appear impractical. However, kinetic robust disruption missions are available with launches between April 2030 and April 2032. Nuclear robust disruption missions are also available with launches between late 2029 and late 2031. Finally, even if lunar impact is ruled out there is significant potential utility in deploying a reconnaissance mission to characterize the asteroid.

Asteroid Disruption↗

Groundwater drainage from fissures as a source for lahars

One mechanism for generating lahars at volcanoes experiencing unrest is the disruption of internal aquifers. These disruptions can trigger releases of large quantities of groundwater. An example of such aquifer disruption occurred at Nevado del Huila Volcano, Colombia, during February and April 2007 when large fractures formed across the summit area of the volcano and lahars were emitted from them. Previous work interpreted that lahar volumes could not be accounted for by melted glacial snow or precipitation, and by elimination suggested that the primary water source was groundwater. Conceptual models have been developed for perched, confined aquifers that have been heated and pressurized by magma intrusions, followed by sudden pressure release and water emission during fracture formation. In this paper, we consider an alternative end member wherein water release from large fissures at volcanoes is driven by simple gravity drainage. We apply numerical modeling to quantify water discharge from the porous medium surrounding a fissure with a low-elevation free exit. If a long fracture with high vertical extent (on the order of hundreds of meters) intersects a highly connected saturated porous medium, large volumes (on order 10 3 m 3 /m of crack length) of water may be released within tens of minutes. The drainage rates from the model may be adequate to account for the Nevado del Huila events if the medium surrounding the crack contains a large volume of water and has high horizontal permeability. Finally, this simple but poorly understood mechanism can present a hazard on its own or compound other processes releasing water from volcanoes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Regulation of Proliferative Processes in Rat Adrenal Cortex by Transcriptional Factor PRH under Conditions of Developmental Exposure to Endocrine Disruptor DDT

The effects of endocrine disrupters of transcriptional control of morphogenesis are poorly studied. Changes in the expression of transcriptional factor PRH and proliferation of adrenal cortical cells were analyzed in pubertal and postpubertal rats exposed prenatally and postnatally to low doses of endocrine disrupter DDT. In rats exposed to DDT, the expression of PRH and proliferation of adrenal cortical cells differed from those in control rats. Association between these parameters was weakened in the zona glomerulosa and zona reticularis and was absent in the zona fasciculata. These findings suggest that exposure to DDT in pre- and postnatal periods impairs the regulation of proliferative processes by transcriptional factor PRH in all zones of rat adrenal cortex, which can be a mechanism of the disruptive action of DDT.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

NASA analysis of space mission options for the 2025 planetary defense conference hypothetical asteroid impact threat scenario

The 2025 Planetary Defense Conference (PDC) hypothetical asteroid impact threat exercise is being conducted in coordination with the United Nations-endorsed Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG), exercising SMPAG's processes for assessing space mission options and communicating to decision makers. Here, in this paper, we describe the work performed by our NASA-led team and present the results we contributed to the SMPAG effort for the exercise. Our NASA-led team assessed mission options for asteroid reconnaissance (flyby and rendezvous), deflection, and robust disruption using several viable techniques: kinetic impactors, ion beam deflection, and nuclear explosive devices. Our simulations and analyses considered how much change-in-velocity an asteroid can tolerate before fragmentation onset, and we worked towards establishing requirements for robustly disrupting an asteroid. Heuristics informed by the simulation results are incorporated into optimization of deflection and disruption mission campaign options. Finally, we make some observations about useful generalizations from these results with potential applicability to any planetary defense scenario.

Asteroid deflection↗

Optimizing the physical design and layout of a resilient wind, solar, and storage hybrid power plant

We report as wind and solar technologies improve and their costs decrease, the share of power produced by these sources will increase. As the market penetration increases, these power sources will need to provide grid services, such as dispatchability, in addition to providing energy. One way to reduce variability, provide higher quality power to the grid, and address local grid stability issues is through colocating wind and solar power plants. In addition to operating reliably during normal operating conditions, in scenarios with high penetrations of renewable generation, it is important that these hybrid plants can withstand production disruptions and continue to supply power despite prolonged resource reduction, extreme weather events, or other disruptions. In this paper, we present a methodology to optimize a wind-solar-battery hybrid power plant down to the component level that is resilient against production disruptions and that can continually produce some minimum required power. We introduce the models and assumptions we used to simulate a hybrid power plant as well as the design variable parameterization and specific methods we used to optimize the plant. We demonstrate the performance of our method by comparing a plant optimized for different objectives, generation outage durations, minimum power requirements, and power purchase agreements. Although the plant design is sensitive to model parameters and various other assumptions, our results demonstrate some of the optimal designs that occur in different scenarios and what one should expect when designing a hybrid wind-solar-storage power plant.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Antibiotics-induced gut microbiota dysbiosis promotes tumor initiation via affecting APC-Th1 development in mice

Gut microbiota is critical for maintaining body immune homeostasis and thus affects tumor growth and therapeutic efficiency. Here, we investigated the link between microbiota and tumorgenesis in a mice model of subcutaneous melanoma cell transplantation, and explored the underlying mechanism. We found disruption of gut microbiota by pretreating mice with antibiotics promote tumor growth and remodeling the immune compartment within the primary tumor. Indeed, gut microbial dysbiosis reduced the infiltrated mature antigen-presenting cells of tumor, together with lower levels of co-stimulators, such as CD80, CD86 and MHCII, as well as defective Th1 cytokines, including IFNγ, TNFα, IL12p40, and IL12p35. Meantime, splenic APCs displayed blunted ability in triggering T cell proliferation and IFNγ secretion. However, oral administration of LPS restored the immune surveillance effects and thus inhibited tumor growth in the antibiotics induced gut microbiota dysbiosis group. Taken together, these data highly supported that antibiotics induced gut microbiota dysbiosis promotes tumor initiation, while LPS supplementation would restore the effective immune surveillance and repress tumor initiation. - Highlights: • Antibiotics induced gut microbiota dysbiosis promotes tumor initiation in mice. • Gut microbiota disruption compromise APC-Th1 development in tumor. • Orally LPS administration rescues tumor immune surveillance in gut microbiota disrupted mice. • None of the authors have any conflict of interest.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Using bursty announcements for detecting BGP routing anomalies

Despite the robust structure of the Internet, it is still susceptible to disruptive routing updates that prevent network traffic from reaching its destination. Our research shows that BGP announcements that are associated with disruptive updates tend to occur in groups of relatively high frequency, followed by periods of infrequent activity. We hypothesize that we may use these bursty characteristics to detect anomalous routing incidents. In this work, we use manually verified ground truth metadata and volume of announcements as a baseline measure, and propose a burstiness measure that detects prior anomalous incidents with high recall and better precision than the volume baseline. We quantify the burstiness of inter-arrival times around the date and times of four large-scale incidents: the Indosat hijacking event in April 2014, the Telecom Malaysia leak in June 2015, the Bharti Airtel Ltd. hijack in November 2015, and the MainOne leak in November 2018; and three smaller scale incidents that led to traffic interception: the Belarusian traffic direction in February 2013, the Icelandic traffic direction in July 2013, and the Russian telecom that hijacked financial services in April 2017. Our method leverages the burstiness of disruptive update messages to detect these incidents. We describe limitations, open challenges, and how this method can be used for routing anomaly detection.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Natural gas maximal load delivery for multi-contingency analysis

An increasing dependence on natural gas has amplified existing vulnerabilities to the power grid, including disruptions to gas transmission networks from natural and man-made disasters. To address the operational challenges arising from these disruptions, we, in this study, consider the problem of estimating the steady-state operating capacity of a damaged gas pipeline network while ensuring the maximal delivery of load. Specifically, we formulate the mixed-integer nonconvex maximal load delivery (MLD) problem, which proves difficult to solve on large-scale networks. To address this challenge, we present a relaxation of the MLD problem and use it to determine bounds on the transport capacity of a gas pipeline system. A rigorous computational evaluation over network models ranging in size from 11 to 4,197 junctions shows that the relaxation-based method is suitable for analyzing the impacts of multi-contingency network disruptions, often converging to the optimal solution of the relaxation in less than ten seconds.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Persistent organic pollutants as predictors of increased FSH:LH ratio in naturally cycling, reproductive age women

Highlights: • Endocrine disrupting chemicals pose a threat to female fecundity and reproduction. • Examined organochlorines and a marker of ovarian responsivity, FSH:LH ratio. • Increasing concentrations of estrogenic PCBs predict FSH:LH ratio > 2. • PCB congeners related to airborne exposure are associated with FSH:LH ratio > 2. Although several recent studies suggest endocrine disrupting compounds, such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (p,p′, DDE), and hexachlorobenzene (HCB), target different organs and systems in the body, their impact on female reproductive function in humans is not well characterized. We seek to determine the relationship between several known endocrine disrupting compounds and a marker of ovarian responsivity, the FSH:LH ratio (higher ratio indicates less ovarian responsivity). For this analysis, 169 naturally cycling women between 21 and 38 years of age completed interviews and had their blood drawn on day 3 of their menstrual cycle for analyses of toxicants, gonadal sex hormones (E{sub 2} and P{sub 4}), and gonadotropins (FSH and LH). PCB congeners were classified into five groups based on their environmental persistence, distribution in human tissue, and toxicological action, reflecting the structure, mechanism, and known biological activity of individual PCB congeners. For every unit (ppb) increase in the level of the estrogenic PCB group, there was a 5-fold greater risk of a FSH:LH ratio ≥ 2, controlling for individual differences in age, percent body fat, cycle day 3 estradiol levels, parity, alcohol use and cigarette smoking in the past year (exp[ß] = 5; p = ≤0.01). PCB congeners identified as estrogenic were analyzed individually, and, of the 19 potentially estrogenic congeners, five were significantly, and positively related to an increased FSH:LH ratio. Four of these congeners are non-persistent, easily volatilize in the environment, and are easily metabolized, and hence, are indicative of very recent or current exposure. p,p′-DDE and HCB were not associated with FSH:LH ratio. We find a clinical indicator of ovarian responsivity, FSH:LH ratio, is associated with a specific group of estrogenic PCBs. These congeners may become airborne when they volatilize from dredged PCB-contaminated soil or from indoor PCB-containing window caulk and sealants in older buildings leading to inhalation exposure. PCB exposure, particularly to non-persistent, estrogenic congeners, may pose an unrecognized threat to female fecundity within the general population.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

ITER Toroidal Interferometer and Polarimeter (TIP) beam refraction in 3D density profiles

Calculations of the expected refraction of the five ITER Toroidal Interferometer and Polarimeter (TIP) chords are presented for a range of conditions including high-density axisymmetric, ELMing H-mode cases and shattered pellet disruption mitigation cases. The calculations are carried out with a newly developed ray tracing code capable of following TIP’s 10.59 μm laser beams through arbitrary 3D electron density profiles. Using JOREK simulations of ELM density perturbations in a 15MA ITER baseline plasma, it is shown that refraction from ELMs is expected to be negligible. It is found, however, that TIP interferometers will be able to clearly resolve the line-integrated density perturbation from ELMs and contribute to the ITER measurement requirement “14. H-mode, ELMs and L-H mode transition indicator”. Calculations of the expected refraction in a NIMROD simulated shattered pellet disruption mitigation scenario with peak local electron densities of n e = 3.7 x 10 21 m -3 (max line-averaged densities of n avg = 1.3 x 10 21 m -3 ) also show tolerable refraction and it is likely that most, if not all chords, would avoid signal loss. In conclusion, for both axisymmetric and structured plasmas with line-averaged densities in the mid to upper 10 21 m -3 range, values likely present only during disruption mitigation, refraction becomes significant and could limit the ability of TIP to make reliable density measurements.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Understanding the trade-offs of national municipal solid waste estimation methods for circular economy policy

Policies embracing circular economy concepts have taken hold in national legislation around the world. As the number of governments and organizations adopting circular economy policies increases, so does the need for accurate and timely measurement of material resource flows. Since many countries do not have access to centrally reported municipal solid waste (MSW) data, estimation and modeling are critical in evaluating circular economy policy effectiveness. The purpose of this paper is to examine three modeling approaches estimating national MSW data in the United States, including industry-based material flow analysis, waste-extended input-output modeling, and aggregated regional waste reporting. We establish five criteria to guide the analysis through the context of policy monitoring (data quality, flow totality, update frequency, sensitivity to disruption, and product granularity) and use these criteria to analyze and score each model. We then use a literature search to identify five, internationally-implemented options for circular economy policy and determine the data and modeling components that are most helpful in evaluating policy effectiveness. Finally, we provide a crosswalk of the model scores and policy needs to inform the suitability of model selection by policy type. We found that data quality and update frequency are identified as critical components for evaluating circular economy policies within the models evaluated, and can both be fulfilled by aggregated regional waste reporting. Flow totality, sensitivity to disruption, and product granularity requirements vary by both model and policy types. While none of the evaluated models satisfy the combination of requirements for any of the five policies, industry-based material flow analysis offers flow totality for extended producer responsibility, landfill bans, and recycling rate target policies that typically require it. Here, the waste-extended input-output model can provide disruption sensitivity and product granularity as needed for policies like minimum recycled content and market restrictions. Policy developers in areas where strong centralized data collection is not an option should design policy action(s) with modeling tradeoffs in mind, including the potential hybridization of modeling approaches that may provide the most accurate national MSW estimates.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

An analysis of controlled detachment by seeding various impurity species in high performance scenarios on DIII-D and EAST

Experiments at DIII-D and EAST have demonstrated simultaneous high confinement, divertor detachment, and active control of detachment level, all of which are required for ITER. Comparing detachment control via T e and J sat , it appears that is the most straightforward sensor to use for accessing detachment onset, while J sat offers more precise control of degree of detachment. Based on these results, control using nitrogen seeding has so far shown the best ability to follow a target value with the low disruptivity and little to no degradation of performance when an Internal Transport Barrier (ITB) is present, but not all facilities allow its use. Neon seeding also can be paired with feedback control with low impact on core performance as long as there is no disruption, however shots with neon seeding commonly disrupted during these experiments. Argon is effective in EAST, but tends to degrade performance (by ≈ 10%β p ) when detachment is achieved. With ideal conditions and strike point position control, data from a single Langmuir probe are an acceptable input to the control algorithm, but this simple system is easily defeated by strike point displacement comparable to the T e or J sat scale lengths. The presence of an ITB seems to be critical to retaining core performance in detachment in these parameter ranges, as the pedestal pressure tends to decrease as a result of impurity seeding.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Resilient NdFeB magnet recycling under the impacts of COVID-19 pandemic: Stochastic programming and Benders decomposition

Neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) magnets are the most powerful magnets per unit volume sold in the commercial market. Despite the increasing demand for clean energy applications such as electric vehicles and wind turbines, disruptive events including the COVID-19 pandemic have caused significant uncertainties in the supply and demand for NdFeB magnets. Therefore, this study aims to alleviate the risk of supply shortage for NdFeB magnets and the containing critical materials, rare-earth elements (REEs), through the development of a resilient reverse supply chain and logistics network design. We develop scenarios to model the unique impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the proposed business, incorporating both disruption intensity and recovery rate. We formulate a chance-constrained two-stage stochastic programming model to maximize the profit while guaranteeing the network resiliency against disruption risks. To solve the problem in large-scale instances, we develop an efficient Benders decomposition algorithm that reduces the computational time by 98.5% on average compared to the default CPLEX algorithm. When applied to the United States, the model suggests the optimal facility locations, processing capacities, inventory levels, and material flows for NdFeB magnet recyclers that could meet 99.7% of the demand. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first to incorporate the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic to design a resilient NdFeB magnet recycling supply chain and logistics network, leveraging risk-averse stochastic programming.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Aβ1-42 induces cell damage via RAGE-dependent endoplasmic reticulum stress in bEnd.3 cells

Highlights: • ERS involved in Aβ{sub 1-42}-resulted TJ disruption in endothelial cells. • Activation of ERS by Aβ{sub 1-42} is mediated by RAGE in endothelial cells. • Aβ{sub 1-42} induced endothelial cells damage and TJ disruption though RAGE-dependence ERS. Blood-brain barrier (BBB) breakdown has been determined to play a critical role in the pathogenesis of Alzheimer's disease (AD). However, the underlying mechanisms of BBB disruption in AD remain unclear. Our previous study suggested that the receptor for advanced glycation end-products (RAGE) functioned as a signal transduction receptor in Aβ{sub 1–42}-induced damage in endothelial cells. In our present study, we revealed that RAGE-mediated endoplasmic reticulum stress (ERS) is essential for Aβ-induced endothelial cell damage. Here, we found that Aβ{sub 1–42} activated ERS by upregulation of Grp78, xbp-1 and CHOP in endothelial cells and that Aβ{sub 1–42}-resulted lesions, including the upregulations of caspase-12 and caspase-3, the augment of bax/bcl-2 ratio, and the downregulations of ZO-1 and Occludin in bEnd.3 cells, were ameliorated by the pretreatment of salubrinal, an ERS inhibitor. Furthermore, the expressions of Grp78, xbp-1 and CHOP induced by Aβ{sub 1–42} were blocked by transfection of RAGE small interfering RNA (siRNA), which indicated that Aβ{sub 1–42} activated ERS in a RAGE-dependent manner. Additionally, bEnd.3 cells transfected with RAGE siRNA showed lower expressions of caspase-12 and caspase-3, decreased bax/bcl-2 ratio, and higher expressions of ZO-1 and Occludin following Aβ1-42 treatment, comparing to control cells. In conclusion, our data demonstrated that Aβ{sub 1–42} induced endothelial cells damage via activation of ERS in a RAGE-dependent manner.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Aβ1–42 oligomer induces alteration of tight junction scaffold proteins via RAGE-mediated autophagy in bEnd.3 cells

Compelling evidences have shown that amyloid-β (Aβ) peptide is one of the major pathogenic factors resulting in blood-brain barrier (BBB) disruption in Alzheimer's disease (AD). However, the mechanism underlying BBB breakdown remains elusive. In our present study, we employed murine brain capillary endothelial cells (bEnd.3) as an in vitro BBB model to investigate the role of autophagy in Aβ{sub 1–42} oligo induced BBB disruption. We first identified Aβ{sub 1–42} oligo cytotoxicity to bEnd.3 cells as observed in the reduced cell viability and downregulation of ZO-1, Occludin and Claudin-5. Based on the observation that both downregulated expression of p-mTOR/m-TOR and upregulated ratio of LC3-II/β-actin were induced by Aβ{sub 1–42} oligo, we then applied 3-MA, an inhibitor of autophagy, to test the role of autophagy in Aβ{sub 1–42} oligo induced Tight junction (TJ) proteins damage. Results have shown that 3-MA partially reversed Aβ{sub 1–42} oligo induced downregulation of ZO-1, Occludin and Claudin-5, which was further determined by LC3 siRNA. We also used rapamycin to activate autophagy and found that TJ proteins damage induced by Aβ1–42 was deteriorated even further. Given that the receptor of advanced glycation end-products (RAGE) is a pivotal receptor that mediates Aβ toxicity, RAGE siRNA was utilized to identify the involvement of RAGE in Aβ{sub 1–42} oligo induced autophagy. The results demonstrated a suppressed autophagy with increased p-mTOR/m-TOR and decreased LC3-II/β-actin as well as increased ZO-1, Occludin and Claudin-5 in transfected cells after Aβ{sub 1–42} oligo treatment, as compared to the non-transfected group. In summary, these results suggested that Aβ{sub 1–42} oligo induced TJ proteins disruption via a RAGE-dependent autophagy pathway.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

IL-1β is a key inflammatory cytokine that weakens lactation-specific tight junctions of mammary epithelial cells

Highlights: • TNF-α, IL-1β, and IL-6 directly affect tight junctions of MECs in different ways. • IL-1β rapidly disrupts tight junctions at tricellular contacts between MECs. • IL-1β decreases the amount of tight junction proteins and weaken the TJ barrier. • Activation of p38 by IL-1β triggers disruption of tight junctions. In lactating mammary glands, alveolar mammary epithelial cells (MECs) produce milk and form less-permeable tight junctions (TJs). However, alveolar TJs are weakened with a reduction in milk production in mammary glands due to mastitis or weaning in the presence of high levels of IL-1β, IL-6, or TNF-α. In this study, using in vitro cultured model of MECs with milk-producing ability and lactation-specific TJs, we investigated whether the aforementioned cytokines affect MEC TJs. The results showed that TNF-α, IL-1β, and IL-6 affected lactation-specific TJs in different ways. In particular, upon activation of p38 and JNK signalling, IL-1β caused rapid disruption of TJs at tricellular contact points. IL-1β treatment led to decreased CLDN3, CLDN4, and OCLN levels and a weakened TJ barrier. The adverse effects of IL-1β on TJs were mimicked by anisomycin, which is an activator of p38 and JNK signalling, and were blocked by MEC pretreatment with a p38 inhibitor but not a JNK inhibitor. The mislocalization of tricellulin at tricellular contact areas was confirmed in MECs treated with IL-1β or anisomycin. These results indicate that IL-1β is a key cytokine that adversely affects the TJs between MECs by activating p38.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Purification of Lithium-Ion Battery Black Mass through Tailored Alkaline Corrosion

Obtaining high-purity material outputs is crucial to the viability of novel process aimed at direct recycling of lithium-ion batteries. Metallic impurities in recycled cathodes have been shown to inhibit performance, thereby threatening mainstream acceptance of recycled battery products. Thus, shredded black mass (BM) must be purified to remove metallic contaminants, and specifically Al and Cu originating from the electrode current collectors. We herein explore a process to ionize solid copper and aluminum to ionic form based on tailored alkaline chemistry, without incurring damage to the target cathode material (Li(NixMnyCo1-x-y)O2; NMC). Al and Cu corrosion may be enhanced through the addition of chloride salt, elevated temperatures, and the use of ultrasonication - all of which disrupt the formation of passivating films on the metallic surface, and thereby increase corrosion rate. We demonstrate optimized parameters for Al and Cu corrosion both from a kinetic and overall process cost perspective. Further, we analyze the impact of these conditions on the structural (XRD, SEM), chemical (EDS, ICP), and electrochemical (impedance, cycling, dQ/dV) properties of NMC, and suggest that the present purification method does not significantly disrupt NMC performance. Finally, we present preliminary results from a promising bench-scale demonstration of this purification process applied to a simulated black mass.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY STORAGE↗