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DOE OSTI2018

Predicting Ice Sheet and Climate Evolution on Extreme Scales (PISCEES) Final Report

Predicting Ice Sheet and Climate Evolution at Extreme Scales (PISCEES) PISCEES is a SciDAC Earth System Modeling project with the following goals: To develop and apply robust, accurate, and scalable dynamical cores for ice sheet modeling on structured and unstructured meshes with adaptive refinements To evaluate ice sheet models using new tools and data sets for verification and validation (V&V) and uncertainty quantification (UQ) To integrate these models and tools into DOE's Accelerated Climate Model for Energy (ACME) using improved estimates of ice sheet initial conditions, we will simulate decade-to-century-scale evolution of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, running PISCEES ice sheet models both in standalone mode and coupled to ACME. We aim to provide useful, credible predictions, including uncertainty ranges, of future ice-sheet mass loss and resulting changes in climate and sea level. PISCEES is jointly funded by the Office of Biological and Environmental Research (BER) and the Office of Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) of the DOE Office of Science. Participating institutions: Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) Florida State University (FSU) Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) University of South Carolina (USC) University of Texas at Austin (UT) National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) (https://www.scidac.gov/PISCEES/).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

The Triple Catalytic Action of Tertiary Nitrogen Catalysts in Recyclable Epoxy-Anhydride Thermosets

The thermosetting polymer matrix in fiber reinforced composites is an important component for energy related applications, such as the lightweighting of vehicles or their use in wind and waterpower turbine blades, due to their ability to provide superior adhesion, stiffness, and applicability to a wide range of manufacturing processes. Despite these benefits, today's thermosets are widely considered to be unrecyclable; thus, there is a large interest in redesigning these materials to be inherently recyclable so that energy intensive production of fibers and monomers can be circumvented, bolstering composite manufacture supply chains. Polyester covalent adaptable networks (PECANs) are one such promising alternative to the incumbent, nonrecyclable epoxy-amine thermosets. PECANs can be formed from the ring-opening co-polymerization (ROCOP) of epoxy-anhydride monomer mixtures and subsequent curing at mild temperatures to exhibit similar performance to conventional epoxies while also possessing unique dynamic chemistries along the ester-hydroxyl backbone that are capable of transesterification and thus reprocessability. While significant advancements have been made in formulating these materials for improved mechanical properties or optimizing solvolysis and reprocessing strategies, less attention has been placed on the impact of the residing amine catalyst used to generate the polyester network. In this work, we evaluated the triple-catalytic efficacy of 12 tertiary amines that act as a curing (bulk ROCOP), a transesterification (internal bond exchange), and a deconstruction (methanolysis) catalyst for PECAN thermosets. Specifically, we first distinguish between chain-growth and step-growth polymerization mechanisms for epoxy-amine and epoxy-anhydride mechanisms. We also utilized density functional theory (DFT) to estimate the basicity (pKb) of each catalyst. Of the tested catalysts, the ROCOP of the studied PECAN network can be completed between 95 and 247 min (at 80 degrees C), with variable gelation phenomena. Additionally, the stress relaxation (transesterification metric) efficiency of the tested PECAN networks with alternative embedded catalysts ranged from 95% to 15% reduction in stress after 5 h at 200 degrees C, and the depolymerization efficacy ranged from 2.5% to 9.8% deconstruction after 36 h at 130 degrees C. Overall, the nitrogen-based moieties were demonstrated to influence polymerization kinetics, catalyze the dynamic transesterification exchange mechanism, and aid in the solvolysis of the thermosets at end-of-life.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Vibrational response and temperature of shock-compressed Pt: In situ extended x-ray absorption fine structure measurements to 325 GPa

Single pulse (~100 ps duration) extended x-ray absorption fine structure (EXAFS) measurements were obtained in laser shocked Pt to examine atomic vibrational properties and to determine temperatures for shock pressures from 72-325 GPa. Pt x-ray absorption spectra were recorded while a planar shock wave was propagating through the Pt sample. The absorption spectrum corresponding to the shocked Pt was obtained by subtracting the ambient Pt contribution from the measured absorption spectrum. Fits to the shocked state EXAFS data provided Pt lattice parameters consistent with the known Pt Hugoniot and the mean squared relative displacements (MSRDs) for nearest neighbor Pt atoms. Pt temperatures in the shocked state, estimated from the MSRDs using the correlated Debye model and correlated Einstein models, were consistent with both the Hugoniot temperatures calculated by integration along the Hugoniot and with the Hugoniot temperatures from published first-principles calculations. However, the agreement between the Hugoniot temperatures from EXAFS measurements and the calculated Hugoniot temperatures is not as good above 200 GPa, likely due to anharmonic effects. Furthermore, the present results demonstrate that single-pulse synchrotron EXAFS measurements in laser-shocked solids are useful for quantitative temperature determination and for examination of vibrational properties, including anharmonicity, at extreme pressure-temperature conditions.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2026

From molecular to macroscopic: predicting liquid–liquid phase equilibria and small-angle scattering of mixtures of organic liquids from atomistic simulation using Kirkwood–Buff theory

Macroscopic phase equilibria between solutions define the functionality of many biological and industrial processes, yet they are challenging to predict due to the inherent complexity of liquids containing large molecules. This work introduces an approach for the purely predictive calculation of such phase equilibria in temperature-composition space from molecular dynamics (MD) simulations at one temperature in the single-phase region. We use an approach developed previously to obtain the entropic and enthalpic contributions to the free energy of mixing from the atomic-scale information given by MD simulations via Kirkwood–Buff theory. This allows us to accurately estimate the free energy of mixing as a function of temperature, and thus obtain liquid–liquid phase equilibria, including liquid–liquid critical points, associated binodal and spinodal lines, and composition fluctuations across a region of temperature and composition. Results for binary malonamide–alkane systems are validated by comparison to a direct experimental probe of the fluctuations: the small angle X-ray scattering intensity near zero wavenumber. The MDKB → Phase method demonstrated here provides a significant improvement in predicting liquid–liquid equilibria and free energy as a function of temperature for our systems of interest compared to conventional thermodynamic models. The accurate performance of this purely predictive approach lies in its preservation of atomistic details when determining thermodynamic properties. Furthermore, its inherent extensibility to multi-component systems will likely make the MDKB → Phase approach a valuable general tool for connecting molecular interactions to macroscopic phase equilibria and for the computational screening of materials for targeted thermodynamic behavior.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Cloud Feedback Uncertainty in the Equatorial Pacific Across CMIP6 Models

Cloud feedback is the largest uncertainty in estimating Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity. In this study we focus on the equatorial Pacific, where CMIP6 model cloud feedback spread is notably large. Cloud radiative effects in this region are relevant for the global climate. Our findings show that models predict a consistent shift towards the ascent regime in response to El Nino-like sea surface warming. Models diverge in terms of the radiative impact due to differences in cloud characteristics in ascent and subsidence regimes. Using the observed relationship between circulation regime and cloud radiative effect, we find a reduction in the regional mean cloud feedback estimate from 0.77 to 0.22 W m -2 K -1 , though this does not substantially lessen the model spread in total feedback. Pathways to reduce this spread include: improving confidence in the regional ocean warming pattern, and using observations and models to understand cloud type and circulation interactions.

CMIP6↗

DOE OSTI2022

Sub-percentage measure of distances to redshift of 0.1 by a new cosmic ruler

ABSTRACT Distance-redshift diagrams probe expansion history of the Universe. We show that the stellar mass-binding energy (massE) relation of galaxies proposed in our previous study offers a new distance ruler at cosmic scales. By using elliptical galaxies in the main galaxy sample of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 7, we construct a distance-redshift diagram over the redshift range from 0.05 to 0.2 with the massE ruler. The best-fit dark energy density is 0.675 ± 0.079 for flat Λ-cold dark matter (ΛCDM) model, consistent with those by other probes. At the median redshift of 0.11, the median distance is estimated to have a fractional error of 0.34 per cent, much lower than those by supernova (SN) Ia and baryonic acoustic oscillation (BAO) and even exceeding their future capability at this redshift. The above low-$\mathit{ z}$ measurement is useful for probing dark energy that dominates at the late Universe. For a flat dark energy equation of state model (flat wCDM), the massE alone constrains w to an error that is only a factor of 2.2, 1.7, and 1.3 times larger than those by BAO, SN Ia, and cosmic microwave background (CMB), respectively.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Emergence of unprecedented climate change in projected future precipitation

The future time of emergence when precipitation changes due to anthropogenic influences begins to continuously exceed the previous maximum value is defined as the ‘tipping year’ Historical experiments and future experiments simulated by state-of-the-art climate models were utilized. A total of 510,000 time series from year 1856 to 2095 were generated by sampling the natural internal variability in precipitation. The time evolutions of internal variability in the whole time period were estimated from the combination of past and future experiments with preindustrial control experiments. A large ensemble size enabled an estimation of the probability density function of the tipping year at each grid point, providing precise information on the uncertainty of the projection. The tipping year of average precipitation emerges earlier in high latitudes than in lower latitudes. In some regions in lower latitudes and mid-latitudes, the tipping year of intense precipitation emerges faster than that of average precipitation. The tipping years of average and intense precipitation are earlier for higher anthropogenic forcing scenarios than for lower scenarios. The global average of the tipping year for intense precipitation might be attributed to the enhancement of the thermodynamic effect (moisture) rather than the dynamic effect (vertical motion).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Scalable deep learning for watershed model calibration

Watershed models such as the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) consist of high-dimensional physical and empirical parameters. These parameters often need to be estimated/calibrated through inverse modeling to produce reliable predictions on hydrological fluxes and states. Existing parameter estimation methods can be time consuming, inefficient, and computationally expensive for high-dimensional problems. In this paper, we present an accurate and robust method to calibrate the SWAT model (i.e., 20 parameters) using scalable deep learning (DL). We developed inverse models based on convolutional neural networks (CNN) to assimilate observed streamflow data and estimate the SWAT model parameters. Scalable hyperparameter tuning is performed using high-performance computing resources to identify the top 50 optimal neural network architectures. We used ensemble SWAT simulations to train, validate, and test the CNN models. We estimated the parameters of the SWAT model using observed streamflow data and assessed the impact of measurement errors on SWAT model calibration. We tested and validated the proposed scalable DL methodology on the American River Watershed, located in the Pacific Northwest-based Yakima River basin. Our results show that the CNN-based calibration is better than two popular parameter estimation methods (i.e., the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation [GLUE] and the dynamically dimensioned search [DDS], which is a global optimization algorithm). For the set of parameters that are sensitive to the observations, our proposed method yields narrower ranges than the GLUE method but broader ranges than values produced using the DDS method within the sampling range even under high relative observational errors. The SWAT model calibration performance using the CNNs, GLUE, and DDS methods are compared using R 2 and a set of efficiency metrics, including Nash-Sutcliffe, logarithmic Nash-Sutcliffe, Kling-Gupta, modified Kling-Gupta, and non-parametric Kling-Gupta scores, computed on the observed and simulated watershed responses. The best CNN-based calibrated set has scores of 0.71, 0.75, 0.85, 0.85, 0.86, and 0.91. The best DDS-based calibrated set has scores of 0.62, 0.69, 0.8, 0.77, 0.79, and 0.82. The best GLUE-based calibrated set has scores of 0.56, 0.58, 0.71, 0.7, 0.71, and 0.8. The scores above show that the CNN-based calibration leads to more accurate low and high streamflow predictions than the GLUE and DDS sets. Our research demonstrates that the proposed method has high potential to improve our current practice in calibrating large-scale integrated hydrologic models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: Synthesizing Earth System Knowledge for Probabilistic Climate Projections

Abstract Over the last decades, climate science has evolved rapidly across multiple expert domains. Our best tools to capture state‐of‐the‐art knowledge in an internally self‐consistent modeling framework are the increasingly complex fully coupled Earth System Models (ESMs). However, computational limitations and the structural rigidity of ESMs mean that the full range of uncertainties across multiple domains are difficult to capture with ESMs alone. The tools of choice are instead more computationally efficient reduced complexity models (RCMs), which are structurally flexible and can span the response dynamics across a range of domain‐specific models and ESM experiments. Here we present Phase 2 of the Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project (RCMIP Phase 2), the first comprehensive intercomparison of RCMs that are probabilistically calibrated with key benchmark ranges from specialized research communities. Unsurprisingly, but crucially, we find that models which have been constrained to reflect the key benchmarks better reflect the key benchmarks. Under the low‐emissions SSP1‐1.9 scenario, across the RCMs, median peak warming projections range from 1.3 to 1.7°C (relative to 1850–1900, using an observationally based historical warming estimate of 0.8°C between 1850–1900 and 1995–2014). Further developing methodologies to constrain these projection uncertainties seems paramount given the international community's goal to contain warming to below 1.5°C above preindustrial in the long‐term. Our findings suggest that users of RCMs should carefully evaluate their RCM, specifically its skill against key benchmarks and consider the need to include projections benchmarks either from ESM results or other assessments to reduce divergence in future projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning and process-based modeling of spatiotemporal changes in active layer thickness across Alaska

Permafrost degradation poses a growing threat to infrastructure stability and ecosystem resilience in the rapidly warming Arctic. We investigated the spatiotemporal dynamics of active layer thickness (ALT) across Alaska by integrating field observations, environmental datasets, a physically based Stefan model, and machine learning (ML) techniques. Using weather projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP 2-4.5 and SSP 5-8.5), we assessed ALT sensitivity to projected future weather conditions. The random forest (RF) model outperformed the Stefan approach in predicting ALT on the training dataset (R² = 0.84 vs. 0.53) but demonstrated lower generalizability on the test dataset (R² = 0.24 vs. 0.54). The root mean square error (RMSE) for the RF model for training and testing ranged from 14 to 22 cm, compared to 17 and 18 cm for the Stefan model. Variable importance analysis revealed that mean annual temperature and slope angle were the strongest predictors of ALT, accounting for 19% and 18% of the variance, respectively, followed by sediment transport index (14%) and stream power index (11%). Comparative analysis of baseline ALT predictions showed the Stefan model tended to project a thicker active layer (mean ± SD: 65 ± 16 cm), compared to the RF model (mean ± SD: 59 ± 8.8) cm). Both models indicated a latitudinal gradient in ALT, with shallower depths at higher latitudes. Projected ALT increases by 2100 were estimated at 3.3 ± 2.2 cm under SSP 2-4.5 and 5.9 ± 4.0 cm under SSP 5-8.5 for the ML model, whereas the Stefan model projected substantially larger increases of 13 ± 2.6 cm (SSP 2-4.5) and 28 ± 4.4 cm (SSP5-8.5). Spatial analysis showed the greatest ALT increases in northern Alaska, with relatively smaller changes in southern regions. These findings highlight the complex, multifactorial nature of ALT dynamics and the value of hybrid modeling approaches. As rising temperatures accelerate permafrost thaw, changes in ALT can disrupt ecosystems, damage infrastructures, and enhance the release of stored soil carbon, highlighting the urgent need for improved predictive capabilities to inform adaptation strategies in the Arctic.

Climate sciences↗

DOE OSTI2025

Operando synchrotron X-ray analysis of melt pool dynamics in an Al-Sn immiscible alloy

The melt flow in an Al-50vol.% Sn immiscible alloy, produced by single-track laser melting of Al and Sn elemental powders, was studied in real time. High-speed synchrotron X-ray imaging was used to track Al and Sn liquids’ movements, and also to examine elemental distributions in the laser tracks, complimented by electron microscopy after solidification. Key aspects, including melt pool geometry, keyhole instability, and flow dynamics (flow pattern and velocity), were examined using digital image analysis. Relatively deeper melt pools formed at 400 W and 300 mm/s exhibited greater stability, with smooth surfaces, consistent outward flow, and minor vortices near the keyhole. In contrast, shallower pools produced at higher scanning speeds (>500 mm/s) demonstrated greater instability with increased surface waviness, and stronger velocity fluctuations, leading to numerous micro-vortices and increased Al-Sn heterogeneity. Velocity scale estimations, supported by experimental observations, examined the roles of vapour pressure, Marangoni effect, buoyancy, inertial, and surface tension forces in the flow. The results revealed that vapour pressure and mechanical waves dominated at high scanning speeds (shallow pools), while Marangoni forces were equally significant in deep pools at lower speeds (300 mm/s). Buoyancy was found to have minimal impact in both cases. Furthermore, the interaction between inertial and surface tension forces played a critical role in determining the degree of waviness of the pools’ surfaces. These findings offer valuable insights into melt pool dynamics during laser processing of immiscible alloys and other metallic systems using elemental powders, and provide guidance for developing high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics models.

immiscible alloys↗

DOE OSTI2023

Quantification of spatial and seasonal trends in the atmosphere and construction of statistical models for infrasonic propagation

SUMMARY Infrasonic waves are influenced by variations in the density, pressure and temperature as well as the ambient winds. Modelling infrasonic propagation can be challenging due to the dynamic nature of the atmosphere as well as the sparseness of measurements which result in variability and notable uncertainty. A framework is presented to quantify spatial and seasonal trends in atmospheric structure via analysis of the effective sound speed profile and identification of temporal trends in the middle atmospheric waveguide produced by the circumpolar vortex winds. Seasonal definitions identifying typical atmospheric structures during the summer, winter and spring/fall transition periods are identified using atmospheric data from 2010 through 2020. Seasonal trend analysis is conducted for a number of locations across the contiguous United States to quantify spatial variations in atmospheric structure that impact infrasonic propagation. For each season and location, empirical orthogonal function analysis is used to reduce the historical archive of atmospheric data into a smaller representative set that can be analysed using numerical tools more efficiently. Infrasonic ray tracing and finite-frequency modal propagation analyses are applied to construct propagation path geometry and transmission loss statistics which are useful in localization and yield estimation for infrasonic sources, respectively. An example application is detailed in which transmission loss statistics are combined with an explosive source model and noise statistics to quantify the capability of a network to detect nearby sources.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Estimating and Calibrating DER Model Parameters Using Levenberg–Marquardt Algorithm in Renewable Rich Power Grid

The proliferation of inverter-based distributed energy resources (IBDERs) has increased the number of control variables and dynamic interactions, leading to new grid control challenges. For stability analysis and designing appropriate protection controls, it is important that IBDER models are accurate. This paper focuses on the accurate estimation and parameter calibration of DER_A, a recently proposed aggregated IBDER model. In particular, we focus on the parameters of the reactive power–voltage regulation module. We formulate the problem of parameter tuning as a non-linear least square minimization problem and solve it using the Levenberg–Marquardt (LM) method. The LM method is primarily chosen due to its flexibility in adaptively selecting between the steepest descent and Gauss–Newton methods through a damping parameter. The LM approach is used to minimize the error between the actual measurements and the estimated response of the model. Further, the computational challenges posed by the numerical calculation of the Jacobian are tackled using a quasi-Newton root-finding approach. The proposed method is validated on a real feeder model in the northeastern part of the United States. The feeder is modeled in OpenDSS and the measurements thus obtained are fed to the DER_A model for calibration. The simulation results indicate that our approach is able to successfully calibrate the relevant model parameters quickly and with high accuracy, with a total sum of square error of 3.57 × 10 –7 .

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Interpretable and flexible non-intrusive reduced-order models using reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces

This paper develops an interpretable, non-intrusive reduced-order modeling technique using regularized kernel interpolation. Existing non-intrusive approaches approximate the dynamics of a reduced-order model (ROM) by solving a data-driven least-squares regression problem for low-dimensional matrix operators. Our approach instead leverages regularized kernel interpolation, which yields an optimal approximation of the ROM dynamics from a user-defined reproducing kernel Hilbert space. We show that our kernel-based approach can produce interpretable ROMs whose structure mirrors full-order model structure by embedding judiciously chosen feature maps into the kernel. The approach is flexible and allows a combination of informed structure through feature maps and closure terms via more general nonlinear terms in the kernel. We also derive a computable a posteriori error bound that combines standard error estimates for intrusive projection-based ROMs and kernel interpolants. In conclusion, the approach is demonstrated in several numerical experiments that include comparisons to operator inference using both proper orthogonal decomposition and quadratic manifold dimension reduction.

Data-driven model reduction↗

DOE OSTI2025

Reconstruction of beam parameters and betatron radiation spectra measured with a Compton spectrometer

The photon flux resulting from high-energy electron beam interactions with high-field systems, such as those found in the upcoming FACET-II experiments at the SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory, yields deep insight into the electron beam’s underlying dynamics during the interaction. However, extracting this information is an intricate process. To demonstrate how to approach this challenge using modern methods, this paper utilizes simulated data that models plasma wakefield acceleration-derived betatron radiation in experiments to determine reliable methods of reconstructing key beam and beam-plasma interaction properties. For betatron radiation measurements, translating the observed 200⁢ keV to 30⁢ MeV photon double-differential energy-angle spectra obtained from an advanced Compton spectrometer requires testing multiple methods to optimize the pipeline from its response to incident electron beam information. The paper compares maximum likelihood estimation and machine learning to refine the translation of photon spectra into precise electron beam metrics, such as spot size, energy, and emittance, enhancing the understanding of beam behavior within these dense, high-field environments. We also introduce machine learning and the expected maximization algorithm to reconstruct the primary photon spectrum, employing a multilayer neural network for regression analysis of the energy and angle spectra. With appropriate modifications, the advanced methods reproduce relevant incident beam parameters with high accuracy, even for beam sizes in the <10 μ⁢m range. This capacity is critical to understanding intense beam propagation and its optimization in plasma.

Beam code development & simulation techniques↗

DOE OSTI2020

A molecular dynamics simulation study of thermal conductivity anisotropy in β-octahydro-1,3,5,7-tetranitro-1,3,5,7-tetrazocine (β-HMX)

Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations were used to predict the thermal conductivity of β-octahydro-1,3,5,7-tetranitro-1,3,5,7-tetrazocine (β-HMX) along directions normal to the (011), (110), and (010) crystal planes. These directions were selected based on the measured morphological importance of the corresponding crystal surfaces. A reverse non-equilibrium MD approach was used wherein a constant heat flux is imposed along a prescribed direction and the resulting steady-state temperature gradient determined. The coefficient of thermal conductivity λ is the quotient of heat flux and temperature gradient (i.e. Fourier's law). Finite-size effects and sensitivity to imposed heat flux were investigated. The results reveal a modest dependence of the conductivity on crystal orientation, significant finite-size effects, and low sensitivity to imposed flux so long as the Fourier's law analysis is limited to the spatial interval in the simulation cell for which the temperature gradient is constant. Infinite-length thermal conductivities were estimated by linear regression of λ -1 (L) versus reciprocal cell length L -1 for each direction. The predicted values are systematically larger, but within a factor of two, than most published experimental determinations, the latter of which were obtained for pressed-powder or composite samples rather than oriented single crystals.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2019

Hyper-Velocity Nanoparticle Plasma Jet as Fast Probe for Runaway Electrons in Tokamak Disruptions

The large energy focalized deposition of the runaway electron (RE) beam on the first wall can potentially yield to destructive effects on the reactor vessel during the explosive instability of a major disruption in a large tokamak (e.g. RE beam estimation is multi-MA of ~10 MeV energy in ITER.) Impurity injection is seen as an effective way to suppress REs after thermal quench (TQ). Injected material in solid state is advantageous, but it must be in small size grain form, with large surface-to-mass ratio to facilitate its rapid ablation within plasma. However, the results using shattered pellet injection (SPI), a technique aiming to satisfy these condition, indicated that the relatively unexplored RE evolution phases and RE beam-plasma interaction are far from being properly diagnosed and fully understood. We proposed the idea to probe REs with a pulsed power hyper-velocity large-mass nanoparticle plasma jet (NPPJ). NPPJ provides a high specific surface area and swift injection to core, hence fast increase of three basic parameters: 1) the electron density ne (bound and free through ionization, if the cold post-TQ plasma has a still high enough T e ), 2) the effective charge (Z eff ) which rises both the dynamical friction force and plasma resistivity, and, finally, 3) the value of the (Dreicer and critical) threshold E-field above which electrons are accelerated and become REs. But the fast transient phenomena of RE ”seed” creation, RE ”avalanche” multiplication, and RE beam formation and interaction with the background plasma all take place dominantly in the core plasma, where the induction E-field has its maximum. Thus, the RE probe success requires a rapid (1 - 2 ms) injection of sufficient mass able to penetrate through the strong toroidal magnetic field (2 - 5 T) over a long distance (~1 - 2 m) with a large assimilation fraction in the core plasma. As a RE probe, NPPJ is a unique combination of fast response with trigger-to-delivery time of few milliseconds, large mass-velocity (>75 mg at several km/s) and deep injection into post-TQ central plasma. The Objectives of this Category #1 project (concept development) were as follows: 1: We investigated the essential basic physics aspects of creating a plasma with ~10 15 to 10 16 cm -3 boron nitride (BN) NP density suited for a pulsed power plasma gun acceleration to several km/s. We concluded that, for RE NPPJ probe, BN (diameter Ø10 to 100 nm NPs) are in all respects usable. 2: We advanced solutions to get BN NPPJ by adapting FAR-TECH’s technology for C 60 NPPJ. 3: We developed self-consistent models for RE current density j RE (R; t) evolution in the TQ aftermath, with fast and simultaneous increase of n e (R; t) and Z eff (R; t) > 1 upon the specific injection of C 60 (i.e. C ions) and BN NP (i.e. B and N ions), respectively. We showed that prompt post-TQ injection and high velocity are of essence in RE probe diagnostics and suppression. 4: We used the in-house HEM-2D code to simulate the C$_{60}^{q+}$ NPPJ transverse penetration through tokamak-level B-field (BT ~2 to 5 T) and distance (~1 to 2m), with fragmentation of C$_{60}^{q+}$ and developed the algorithm for BN Q+ NPPJ ablative sublimation of BN Q+ NP by the collisions with post-TQ plasma electrons. HEM-2D results indicated that fragmenting C$_{60}^{1+}$ NPPJ penetrates up to ~60 cm in 100 us when injecting at 1.6 ms after TQ and gradually released C 2 fragments and C ions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

A segmented approach to modeling building height: Delineating high-rise and low-rise buildings for enhanced height estimation

Understanding building height is imperative to the overall study of energy efficiency, population distribution, urban morphologies, emergency response, among others. Currently, existing approaches for modeling building height at scale are hindered by two pervasive issues. First, there is no consistent approach to quantify what a high-rise building is at a macro scale, leaving researchers unable to accurately compare results across geographies and domains. Second, high-rise buildings represent a small fraction of the built environment, implying data imbalance challenges that negatively affect current approaches. This is a problem of practical relevance since information on high-rise buildings is important for studies on urban heat islands, population dynamics, and pollution dispersion. Here, we introduce a novel approach to map building height which first identifies two distinct distributions within the built environment, with one being composed of low-rise buildings and one composed of high-rise buildings. We then develop an ensemble scheme where discrete specialist models are trained for each subset of low-rise buildings and high-rise buildings to infer building height from morphology features. For experiments mapping heights of 4.85 million buildings in Japan, we show an increase of 34 % in accuracy within 3m error when compared to the current state-of-the-art when modeling high-rise buildings, which based on KNN experimentation we define as any building > 12m . Our findings show that such an ensemble framework outperforms the current state-of-the-art approaches, which is especially relevant in relation to inferring height for high-rise buildings, a prominent issue of existing approaches for mapping the built environment.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗