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Quantifying the Influence of Mechanistic Representation of Particle Dry Deposition on Historical Changes in Aerosol-Climate Interactions

Dry deposition removes short-lived climate forcers and their precursors from the atmosphere. The aerosol dry deposition schemes in many global climate models have been untouched for decades. Previous work hints that aerosol dry deposition is an uncertainty with respect to aerosol impacts on climate change. Here we demonstrate the impact of a more mechanistic aerosol dry deposition parameterization on the historical aerosol direct and cloud albedo effects using the NASA GISS global chemistry-climate model. We investigate two aerosol configurations – a “bulk” mass-based scheme and a modal scheme that more explicitly represents internal mixing and microphysics – of the global model. Both configurations show ~20% larger historical increases in non-dust aerosols globally with more mechanistic dry deposition. Changes to particle dry deposition, which are strongly a function of particle diameter, have a greater influence on the cloud albedo effect (up to 0.1 W m-2) when aerosols are more explicitly resolved in the modal scheme. On the other hand, impacts on the direct aerosol effect are small for both model configurations. In both aerosol configurations, the global climate effects are relatively insensitive to uncertainty in the strength of the uptake to dry deposition as suggested by (limited) measurements. In general, the low number of aerosol flux measurements and strong variability across existing observations challenge confidence in our understanding of dry depositional processes and changes with environmental conditions. Nonetheless, our work suggests that changes in dry deposition may be important for accurately estimating increases in aerosol abundances over the historical period, which is key for correct inferences about how cooling from aerosols has offset warming from greenhouse gases.

Dry deposition↗
DOE OSTI2026

Informing Robust Functional Relationship Benchmarks: An Evaluation of the Temperature Sensitivity of Ecosystem Respiration Across the Arctic-Boreal Region

During land model development, simulated carbon dynamics are often benchmarked against observational data sets to evaluate model performance. Functional relationship benchmarks are the relationship between a driving variable (e.g., temperature) and a response variable (e.g., ecosystem respiration) and are a promising tool for assessing model performance by evaluating modeled sensitivities to changing environmental conditions. However, observed functional relationships can be influenced by choices made during data collection and throughout the benchmarking process, impacting the inferred skill of land models. To avoid misrepresenting a model's true performance, it is necessary to systematically evaluate best practices when constructing functional relationship benchmarks. We developed a set of guidelines for constructing functional relationship benchmarks, considering the choice of data set, number of daily observations, temporal extent, and temporal resolution across Alaska and Canada over a 20-year period from 2001 to 2020. The temperature sensitivity of ecosystem respiration from observations, evaluated through an apparent Q 10 , is highly variable both spatially and as a result of the data processing approach applied in the benchmark formation. When benchmarking 13 models from the Warming Permafrost Model Intercomparison Project (WrPMIP), the range in inferred model skill is substantially impacted by the choices applied in constructing functional relationship benchmarks. The inferred performance of a given model is most sensitive to the number of daily observations and temporal extent, followed by choice of benchmark data set and temporal averaging. Results from this analysis can guide the development of consistent and robust functional relationships for future model evaluation studies.

Poe, Jeralyn [Northern Arizona University, Flagsta↗
NASA NTRS1994

Correlated environmental corrections in TOPEX/POSEIDON, with a note on ionospheric accuracy

Estimates of the effectiveness of an altimetric correction, and interpretation of sea level variability as a response to atmospheric forcing, both depend upon assuming that residual errors in altimetric corrections are uncorrelated among themselves and with residual sea level, or knowing the correlations. Not surprisingly, many corrections are highly correlated since they involve atmospheric properties and the ocean surface's response to them. The full corrections (including their geographically varying time mean values), show correlations between electromagnetic bias (mostly the height of wind waves) and either atmospheric pressure or water vapor of -40%, and between atmospheric pressure and water vapor of 28%. In the more commonly used collinear differences (after removal of the geographically varying time mean), atmospheric pressure and wave height show a -30% correlation, atmospheric pressure and water vapor a -10% correlation, both pressure and water vapor a 7% correlation with residual sea level, and a bit surprisingly, ionospheric electron content and wave height a 15% correlation. Only the ocean tide is totally uncorrelated with other corrections or residual sea level. The effectiveness of three ionospheric corrections (TOPEX dual-frequency, a smoothed version of the TOPEX dual-frequency, and Doppler orbitography and radiopositioning integrated by satellite (DORIS) is also evaluated in terms of their reduction in variance of residual sea level. Smooth (90-200 km along-track) versions of the dual-frequency altimeter ionosphere perform best both globally and within 20 deg in latitude from the equator. The noise variance in the 1/s TOPEX inospheric samples is approximately (11 mm) squared, about the same as noise in the DORIS-based correction; however, the latter has its error over scales of order 10(exp 3) km. Within 20 deg of the equator, the DORIS-based correction adds (14 mm) squared to the residual sea level variance.

Zlotnicki, V.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Ocean Mesoscale and Frontal-Scale Ocean–Atmosphere Interactions and Influence on Large-Scale Climate: A Review

Two decades of high-resolution satellite observations and climate modeling studies have indicated strong ocean–atmosphere coupled feedback mediated by ocean mesoscale processes, including semipermanent and meandrous SST fronts, mesoscale eddies, and filaments. The air–sea exchanges in latent heat, sensible heat, momentum, and carbon dioxide associated with this so-called mesoscale air–sea interaction are robust near the major western boundary currents, Southern Ocean fronts, and equatorial and coastal upwelling zones, but they are also ubiquitous over the global oceans wherever ocean mesoscale processes are active. Current theories, informed by rapidly advancing observational and modeling capabilities, have established the importance of mesoscale and frontal-scale air–sea interaction processes for understanding large-scale ocean circulation, biogeochemistry, and weather and climate variability. However, numerous challenges remain to accurately diagnose, observe, and simulate mesoscale air–sea interaction to quantify its impacts on large-scale processes. This article provides a comprehensive review of key aspects pertinent to mesoscale air–sea interaction, synthesizes current understanding with remaining gaps and uncertainties, and provides recommendations on theoretical, observational, and modeling strategies for future air–sea interaction research.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Consistent Timing of Arctic Permafrost Loss Across the CESM1 Large Ensemble

Abstract The Arctic is especially vulnerable to climate change and is warming faster than the global average. Changes in this region pose a heightened threat due to the immense amount of carbon frozen as organic material in the soil. When permafrost thaws, organic material decays and releases as greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, contributing to further warming. A better understanding of the processes that influence permafrost degradation is needed to inform climate adaptation and mitigation planning. This study assesses changes to Arctic permafrost across 35 ensemble member simulations from the Community Earth System Model 1 Large Ensemble Project, under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 21st century scenario. Most Arctic near‐surface permafrost is lost by 2100, but timing varies across regions and with soil depth. Internal climate variability, represented by differences between ensemble members, has a constrained influence on degradation timing due to relative consistency of summer temperature increases and insulation by winter snow cover.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2000

Martian Surface Boundary Layer Characterization: Enabling Environmental Data for Science, Engineering and Human Exploration

For human or large robotic exploration of Mars, engineering devices such as power sources will be utilized that interact closely with the Martian environment. Heat sources for power production, for example, will use the low ambient temperature for efficient heat rejection. The Martian ambient, however, is highly variable, and will have a first order influence on the efficiency and operation of all large-scale equipment. Diurnal changes in temperature, for example, can vary the theoretical efficiency of power production by 15% and affect the choice of equipment, working fluids, and operating parameters. As part of the Mars Exploration program, missions must acquire the environmental data needed for design, operation and maintenance of engineering equipment including the transportation devices. The information should focus on the variability of the environment, and on the differences among locations including latitudes, altitudes, and seasons. This paper outlines some of the WHY's, WHAT's and WHERE's of the needed data, as well as some examples of how this data will be used. Environmental data for engineering design should be considered a priority in Mars Exploration planning. The Mars Thermal Environment Radiator Characterization (MTERC), and Dust Accumulation and Removal Technology (DART) experiments planned for early Mars landers are examples of information needed for even small robotic missions. Large missions will require proportionately more accurate data that encompass larger samples of the Martian surface conditions. In achieving this goal, the Mars Exploration program will also acquire primary data needed for understanding Martian weather, surface evolution, and ground-atmosphere interrelationships.

England, C.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Influence of Background Divergent Moisture Flux on the Frequency of North Pacific Atmospheric Rivers

The frequency of North Pacific atmospheric rivers (ARs) affects water supply and flood risk over western North America. Thus, understanding factors that affect the variability of landfalling AR frequency is of scientific and societal importance. This study aims at identifying the sources of the moisture for North Pacific ARs and assessing how different modes of variability modulate these sources. To this end, the sources and variability of the background divergent component of the integrated moisture flux (DIVT) in ARs are identified using MERRA reanalysis. It is shown that in the boreal winter, this background DIVT in ARs is related to the outflow from the subsidence over the subtropics which transports moisture northward, while in summer it is related to the Asian monsoon and it transports moisture northwestward. This leads to a seasonal northwest/southeast movement of the AR frequency climatology. At the intra-seasonal scale, propagation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation introduces an anti-clockwise rotation of the background DIVT, with northward transport in phases 1 and 2, westward in 3 and 4, southward in 5 and 6 and eastward in 7 and 8, making landfall over the west coast of North America most likely during the last two phases. Similarly, El Niño Southern Oscillation variability also affects the frequency of ARs through modulation of the westerly background DIVT, favoring landfall over the US west coast during strong El Niño phases. It is shown that in general the likelihood of AR landfall over the western US is correlated with the zonal background DIVT over northeastern Pacific.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2011

Applying Geospatial Technologies for International Development and Public Health: The USAID/NASA SERVIR Program

Background: SERVIR -- the Regional Visualization and Monitoring System -- helps people use Earth observations and predictive models based on data from orbiting satellites to make timely decisions that benefit society. SERVIR operates through a network of regional hubs in Mesoamerica, East Africa, and the Hindu Kush-Himalayas. USAID and NASA support SERVIR, with the long-term goal of transferring SERVIR capabilities to the host countries. Objective/Purpose: The purpose of this presentation is to describe how the SERVIR system helps the SERVIR regions cope with eight areas of societal benefit identified by the Group on Earth Observations (GEO): health, disasters, ecosystems, biodiversity, weather, water, climate, and agriculture. This presentation will describe environmental health applications of data in the SERVIR system, as well as ongoing and future efforts to incorporate additional health applications into the SERVIR system. Methods: This presentation will discuss how the SERVIR Program makes environmental data available for use in environmental health applications. SERVIR accomplishes its mission by providing member nations with access to geospatial data and predictive models, information visualization, training and capacity building, and partnership development. SERVIR conducts needs assessments in partner regions, develops custom applications of Earth observation data, and makes NASA and partner data available through an online geospatial data portal at SERVIRglobal.net. Results: Decision makers use SERVIR to improve their ability to monitor air quality, extreme weather, biodiversity, and changes in land cover. In past several years, the system has been used over 50 times to respond to environmental threats such as wildfires, floods, landslides, and harmful algal blooms. Given that the SERVIR regions are experiencing increased stress under larger climate variability than historic observations, SERVIR provides information to support the development of adaptation strategies for nations affected by climate change. Conclusions: SERVIR is a platform for collaboration and cross-agency coordination, international partnerships, and delivery of web-based geospatial information services and applications. SERVIR makes a variety of geospatial data available for use in studies of environmental health outcomes.

Hemmings, Sarah↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of simulations of near-surface variables using the regional climate model CCLM for the MOSAiC winter period

The ship-based experiment MOSAiC 2019/2020 was carried out during a full year in the Arctic and yielded an excellent data set to test the parameterizations of ocean/sea-ice/atmosphere interaction processes in regional climate models (RCMs). In the present paper, near-surface data during MOSAiC are used for the verification of the RCM COnsortium for Small-scale MOdel–Climate Limited area Mode (COSMO-CLM or CCLM). CCLM is used in a forecast mode (nested in ERA5) for the whole Arctic with 15 km resolution and is run with different configurations of sea ice data. These include the standard sea ice concentration taken from passive microwave data with around 6 km resolution, sea ice concentration from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) thermal infrared data and MODIS sea ice lead fraction data for the winter period. CCLM simulations show a good agreement with the measurements. Relatively large negative biases for temperature occur for November and December, which are likely associated with a too large ice thickness used by CCLM. The consideration of sea ice leads in the sub-grid parameterization in CCLM yields improved results for the near-surface temperature. ERA5 data show a large warm bias of about 2.5°C and an underestimation of the temperature variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Interactions between macro‐ and micro‐climate: Effects on phenolic compound production in Nardus stricta at high elevations

Abstract Phenolic compounds are key to plant defence, offering protection as antioxidants, UV shields, and antimicrobials. Their production is largely shaped by environmental conditions. It is believed that plants at lower elevations increase phenolic content to counter herbivory, while those at higher elevations rely on phenolics to manage abiotic stresses, such as climate variability. Microhabitat warming also affects phenolic levels, but responses differ, depending on broader climatic contexts: plants in warmer, lower‐elevation environments show limited adaptability, whereas high‐elevation plants demonstrate greater plasticity. Despite the importance of these environmental interactions, many small‐scale abiotic studies lack sufficient spatial replication across broader gradients like elevation or latitude, while large‐scale studies frequently overlook microscale factors. This study investigated the effects of macroclimate factors and microhabitat warming on phenolic production in Nardus stricta across five semi‐natural grassland sites (1546–1875 m a.s.l.) in Portugal's Serra da Estrela. Warming was simulated using open‐top chambers over two growing seasons, after which leaf samples were analysed for phenolic compounds, and soil nutrients were measured. The N. stricta plants at the highest elevation site contained significantly higher leaf flavonoid concentrations. Microhabitat warming led to a significant decrease in flavonoid concentrations, but only at the highest elevation site. These effects occurred independently of soil nutrient levels, suggesting direct thermal effects or stress responses might be involved. Our findings highlight the complex interactions between macro‐ and microenvironmental factors in shaping plant chemistry, underscoring critical considerations for plant resilience in the face of climate change. This understanding is essential for developing strategies to support plant and ecosystem adaptation to changing climates.

Moreira, X. [Misión Biológica de Galicia (MBG‐CSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Predictability of the early summer surface air temperature over Western South Asia

Variability of the Surface Air Temperature (SAT) over the Western South Asia (WSA) region leads to frequent heatwaves during the early summer (May-June) season. The present study uses the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast’s fifth-generation seasonal prediction system, SEAS5, from 1981 to 2022 based on April initial conditions (1-month lead) to assess the SAT predictability during early summer season. The goal is to evaluate the SEAS5’s ability to predict the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related interannual variability and predictability of the SAT over WSA, which is mediated through upper-level (200-hPa) geopotential height anomalies. This teleconnection leads to anomalously warm surface conditions over the region during the negative ENSO phase, as observed in the reanalysis and SEAS5. We evaluate SEAS5 prediction skill against two observations and three reanalyses datasets. The SEAS5 SAT prediction skill is higher with high spatial resolution observations and reanalysis datasets compared to the ones with low-resolution. Overall, SEAS5 shows reasonable skill in predicting SAT and its variability over the WSA region. Moreover, the predictability of SAT during La Niña is comparable to El Niño years over the WSA region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Economic and Environmental Assessment of Biological Conversions of Agile BioFoundry (ABF) Bio-Derived Chemicals

Bio-derived chemicals are an essential part of the growing bioeconomy. They possess the potential to boost a new domestic bioproduct industry, improve the sustainability of integrated biomanufacturing, and reduce U.S. dependence on fossil energy. The Agile BioFoundry (ABF) consortium, a Department of Energy (DOE)-sponsored collaboration, is investigating biobased pathways to produce advantaged products including advanced biofuels, fuel intermediates, and bioproducts. ABF is integrating advanced computational tools for biological engineering, process design and data analysis, and economic/sustainability modeling tools into a comprehensive and dynamic platform for biomanufacturing of microbes and using them to produce key metabolic intermediates or beachhead molecules which may be derivatized into several distinct bioproducts of industrial interest. In this presentation, we first discuss a methodology to select a single exemplar product molecule to represent each beachhead pathway based on similarities with other end-molecule options (yields/titers/rates, fermentation operation mode, oxygen requirements, general separations challenges, etc.), in order to maintain a reasonable number of cases for rigorous process simulation. We then use techno-economic analysis (TEA) and life-cycle analysis (LCA) to highlight sensitivities and trends around economic performance and environmental footprint, reflecting examples for two selected ABF technology pathways to bio-derived chemicals: 1) adipic acid production via muconic acid fermentation from mixed sugars with Pseudomonas putida and 2) cineole via geranyl diphosphate with Rhodosporidium toruloides. We present multi-variable scan plots highlighting key drivers on costs and greenhouse gas emissions in order to identify the parameter space in which each pathway could ultimately achieve economic and environmental sustainability meeting or exceeding commodity product benchmarks, thus prioritizing future R&D focus areas.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS2014

Dissertation Defense: Computational Fluid Dynamics Uncertainty Analysis for Payload Fairing Spacecraft Environmental Control Systems

Spacecraft thermal protection systems are at risk of being damaged due to airflow produced from Environmental Control Systems. There are inherent uncertainties and errors associated with using Computational Fluid Dynamics to predict the airflow field around a spacecraft from the Environmental Control System. This paper describes an approach to quantify the uncertainty in using Computational Fluid Dynamics to predict airflow speeds around an encapsulated spacecraft without the use of test data. Quantifying the uncertainty in analytical predictions is imperative to the success of any simulation-based product. The method could provide an alternative to traditional validation by test only mentality. This method could be extended to other disciplines and has potential to provide uncertainty for any numerical simulation, thus lowering the cost of performing these verifications while increasing the confidence in those predictions.Spacecraft requirements can include a maximum airflow speed to protect delicate instruments during ground processing. Computational Fluid Dynamics can be used to verify these requirements; however, the model must be validated by test data. This research includes the following three objectives and methods. Objective one is develop, model, and perform a Computational Fluid Dynamics analysis of three (3) generic, non-proprietary, environmental control systems and spacecraft configurations. Several commercially available and open source solvers have the capability to model the turbulent, highly three-dimensional, incompressible flow regime. The proposed method uses FLUENT, STARCCM+, and OPENFOAM. Objective two is to perform an uncertainty analysis of the Computational Fluid Dynamics model using the methodology found in Comprehensive Approach to Verification and Validation of Computational Fluid Dynamics Simulations. This method requires three separate grids and solutions, which quantify the error bars around Computational Fluid Dynamics predictions. The method accounts for all uncertainty terms from both numerical and input variables. Objective three is to compile a table of uncertainty parameters that could be used to estimate the error in a Computational Fluid Dynamics model of the Environmental Control System spacecraft system.Previous studies have looked at the uncertainty in a Computational Fluid Dynamics model for a single output variable at a single point, for example the re-attachment length of a backward facing step. For the flow regime being analyzed (turbulent, three-dimensional, incompressible), the error at a single point can propagate into the solution both via flow physics and numerical methods. Calculating the uncertainty in using Computational Fluid Dynamics to accurately predict airflow speeds around encapsulated spacecraft in is imperative to the success of future missions.

Fluid Dynamics↗
DOE OSTI2023

Land surface dynamics and meteorological forcings modulate land surface temperature characteristics

This study examines the effect of land cover, vegetation health, climatic forcings, elevation heat loads, and terrain characteristics (LVCET) on land surface temperature (LST) distribution over West Africa (WA). We employ fourteen machine-learning models, which preserve nonlinear relationships, to downscale LST and other predictands while preserving the geographical variability of WA. Our results showed that the random forest model performs best in downscaling predictands. This is important for the sub-region since it has limited access to mainframes to power multiplex machine-learning algorithms. In contrast to the northern regions, the southern regions consistently exhibit healthy vegetation. Also, areas with unhealthy vegetation coincide with hot LST clusters. The positive Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) trends in the Sahel underscore rainfall recovery and subsequent Sahelian greening. The southwesterly winds cause the upwelling of cold waters, lowering LST in southern WA and highlighting the cooling influence of water bodies on LST. Identifying regions with elevated LST is paramount for prioritizing greening initiatives, and our study underscores the importance of considering LVCET factors in urban planning. Topographic slope-facing angles, heat loads, and diurnal anisotropic heat all contribute to variations in LST, emphasizing the need for a holistic approach when designing resilient and sustainable landscapes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1999

Observations of Land Surface Variability Using Passive Microwave Sensing

Understanding the global variability of land surface wetness (soil moisture), skin temperature, and related surface fluxes of heat and moisture is key to assessing the importance of the land surface in influencing climate. The feasibility of producing model estimates of these quantities is being studied as part of the International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project (ISLSCP) Global Soil Wetness Project (GSWP). In the GSWP approach, meteorological observations and analyses are used to drive global circulation models. Satellite measurements can provide independent estimates of key land surface parameters that are needed for initializing and validating the climate models and for monitoring long-term change. Satellite observations of the land surface can also be assimilated into soil models to estimate moisture in the root zone. In our research, passive microwave satellite data recorded during 1978-1987 from the Nimbus-7 Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) are being used to examine spatial and temporal trends in surface soil moisture, vegetation, and temperature. These data include observations at C and X bands (6.6 and 10.7 GHz), which are not available on the current Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) and are precursors to data that will become available from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR) on Advanced Earth Observing Satellite (ADEOS-II) and Earth Observing System (EOS) PM1 in the year 2000. A chart shows a time-series of SMMR-derived surface temperature, T-e and surface soil moisture M, retrieved on a 0.5 deg x 0.5 deg grid and further averaged over a 4 deg x 10 deg study region in the African Sahel. Also shown are National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) model outputs of surface temperature, T-sfc, and soil wetness, Soil-w. The variables have been scaled to have similar dynamic ranges on the plots. The NCEP data from the NCEP Reanalysis Project are monthly averages on a 2.5 deg x 2.5 deg grid averaged over the 4 deg x 10 deg study area. Comparisons of SMMR retrievals with forecast model output show the potential of the satellite data for validating model output and monitoring long-term trends. Continuing work will extend these results to other regions to validate the retrievals more quantitatively. In preparation for the launch of AMSR, field experiments are planned in collaboration with the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Coordinated Enhanced Observing Period (CEOP) experiments to evaluate the satellite-derived soil moisture measurements and to demonstrate their usefulness for land surface hydrology and climate. Additional information is contained in the original.

Njoku, Eni G.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Computational Fluid Dynamics Uncertainty Analysis for Payload Fairing Spacecraft Environmental Control Systems

Spacecraft thermal protection systems are at risk of being damaged due to airflow produced from Environmental Control Systems. There are inherent uncertainties and errors associated with using Computational Fluid Dynamics to predict the airflow field around a spacecraft from the Environmental Control System. This proposal describes an approach to validate the uncertainty in using Computational Fluid Dynamics to predict airflow speeds around an encapsulated spacecraft. The research described here is absolutely cutting edge. Quantifying the uncertainty in analytical predictions is imperative to the success of any simulation-based product. The method could provide an alternative to traditional"validation by test only'' mentality. This method could be extended to other disciplines and has potential to provide uncertainty for any numerical simulation, thus lowering the cost of performing these verifications while increasing the confidence in those predictions. Spacecraft requirements can include a maximum airflow speed to protect delicate instruments during ground processing. Computationaf Fluid Dynamics can be used to veritY these requirements; however, the model must be validated by test data. The proposed research project includes the following three objectives and methods. Objective one is develop, model, and perform a Computational Fluid Dynamics analysis of three (3) generic, non-proprietary, environmental control systems and spacecraft configurations. Several commercially available solvers have the capability to model the turbulent, highly three-dimensional, incompressible flow regime. The proposed method uses FLUENT and OPEN FOAM. Objective two is to perform an uncertainty analysis of the Computational Fluid . . . Dynamics model using the methodology found in "Comprehensive Approach to Verification and Validation of Computational Fluid Dynamics Simulations". This method requires three separate grids and solutions, which quantify the error bars around Computational Fluid Dynamics predictions. The method accounts for all uncertainty terms from both numerical and input variables. Objective three is to compile a table of uncertainty parameters that could be used to estimate the error in a Computational Fluid Dynamics model of the Environmental Control System /spacecraft system. Previous studies have looked at the uncertainty in a Computational Fluid Dynamics model for a single output variable at a single point, for example the re-attachment length of a backward facing step. To date, the author is the only person to look at the uncertainty in the entire computational domain. For the flow regime being analyzed (turbulent, threedimensional, incompressible), the error at a single point can propagate into the solution both via flow physics and numerical methods. Calculating the uncertainty in using Computational Fluid Dynamics to accurately predict airflow speeds around encapsulated spacecraft in is imperative to the success of future missions.

Groves, Curtis E.↗