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At least 829 records · Page 46

Data Analysis with Graphical Models: Software Tools

Probabilistic graphical models (directed and undirected Markov fields, and combined in chain graphs) are used widely in expert systems, image processing and other areas as a framework for representing and reasoning with probabilities. They come with corresponding algorithms for performing probabilistic inference. This paper discusses an extension to these models by Spiegelhalter and Gilks, plates, used to graphically model the notion of a sample. This offers a graphical specification language for representing data analysis problems. When combined with general methods for statistical inference, this also offers a unifying framework for prototyping and/or generating data analysis algorithms from graphical specifications. This paper outlines the framework and then presents some basic tools for the task: a graphical version of the Pitman-Koopman Theorem for the exponential family, problem decomposition, and the calculation of exact Bayes factors. Other tools already developed, such as automatic differentiation, Gibbs sampling, and use of the EM algorithm, make this a broad basis for the generation of data analysis software.

Buntine, Wray L.↗

Probabilistic neural networks for improved analyses with phenomenological R -matrix

Here we present a method for measurement analyses based on probabilistic deep neural networks that provide several advantages over conventional analyses with phenomenological models. These include predicting physical quantities directly from data, the rapid generation of statistically robust uncertainties, and the ability to bypass some parameters that may induce ambiguities and complications in data analysis. As deep learning methods make predictions through “black boxes,” the uncertainty quantification is typically challenging. We use a probabilistic framework that provides thorough uncertainty quantification and is straightforward to follow in practice. With the network architecture based on the Transformer, we demonstrate the current method for predicting nuclear resonance parameters from scattering data using the phenomenological R-matrix model.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

“Inverting” X-ray Absorption Spectra of Catalysts by Machine Learning in Search for Activity Descriptors

The rapid growth of methods emerging in the past decade for synthesis of “designer” catalysts—ranging from the size and shape-selected nanoparticles to mass-selected clusters, to precisely engineered bimetallic surfaces, to single site and pair site catalysts—has opened opportunities for tailoring the catalyst structure for the desired activity and selectivity. It has also sharpened the need for developing approaches to the operando characterization, ones that identify the catalytic active sites and follow their evolutions in reaction conditions. Commonly used methods for determination of the activity descriptors in the nanocatalysts, based on the correlation between the changes in catalyst performance and evolution of its structural and electronic properties, are hampered by the paucity of experimental techniques that can detect such properties with high accuracy and in reaction conditions. Out of many such techniques, X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) stands out as an element-specific method that is very sensitive to the local geometric and electronic properties of the metal atoms and their surroundings and, therefore, is able to track catalyst structure modifications in operando conditions. Despite the vast amount of structure-specific information (such as, e.g., the charge states and radial distribution function of neighbors of selected atomic species) stored in the XAS data of catalysts, extracting it from the spectra is challenging, especially in the conditions of low metal weight loading, nanoscale dimensions, heterogeneous size and composition distributions, and harsh reaction environment. In this Perspective, we discuss the recent developments in XAS data analysis achieved by employing supervised and unsupervised machine learning (ML) methods for structural characterization of catalysts. By benefiting from the sensitivity of ML methods to subtle variations in experimental data, a previously “hidden” relationship between the X-ray absorption spectrum and descriptors of material’s structure and/or composition can be found, as illustrated on representative examples of mono-, hetero-, and nonmetallic catalysts. In the case of supervised ML, the experimental spectra can be rapidly “inverted”, and the structure of the catalyst can be tracked in real time and in reaction conditions. Finally, emerging opportunities for catalysis research that the ML methods enable, such as high-throughput data analysis, and their applications to other experimental probes of catalyst structure are discussed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Doppler line profile analysis for a multichannel Fabry-Perot interferometer

A new method of instrument calibration and data analysis is presented for single-etalon interferometric measurements of winds, temperatures, and emission line intensities. The technique has been developed for the multichannel Fabry-Perot interferometer on the Dynamics Explorer spacecraft. A numerical representation of the instrumental transfer function is used based on a truncated Fourier series with empirically determined coefficients. The numerical form is compared with the conventional analytic form. The Fourier coefficients describing the instrument function are generated at the wavelength of a stable He-Ne laser and are translated to other wavelengths using an interpolation technique for both phase and power. A quasi-linear least-squares fitting process involving matrices provides for a rapid and accurate data reduction.

Killeen, T. L.↗

An interactive graphics program to retrieve, display, compare, manipulate, curve fit, difference and cross plot wind tunnel data

The Aerodynamic Data Analysis and Integration System (ADAIS), developed as a highly interactive computer graphics program capable of manipulating large quantities of data such that addressable elements of a data base can be called up for graphic display, compared, curve fit, stored, retrieved, differenced, etc., was described. The general nature of the system is evidenced by the fact that limited usage has already occurred with data bases consisting of thermodynamic, basic loads, and flight dynamics data. Productivity using ADAIS of five times that for conventional manual methods of wind tunnel data analysis is routinely achieved. In wind tunnel data analysis, data from one or more runs of a particular test may be called up and displayed along with data from one or more runs of a different test. Curves may be faired through the data points by any of four methods, including cubic spline and least squares polynomial fit up to seventh order.

Elliott, R. D.↗

Algorithms for Unequal-Arm Michelson Interferometers

A method of data acquisition and data analysis is described in which the performance of Michelson-type interferometers with unequal arms can be made nearly the same as interferometers with equal arms. The method requires a separate readout of the relative phase in each arm, made by interfering the returning beam in each arm with a fraction of the outgoing beam.

Michelson Interferometer↗

Certification of damage tolerant composite structure

A reliability based certification testing methodology for impact damage tolerant composite structure was developed. Cocured, adhesively bonded, and impact damaged composite static strength and fatigue life data were statistically analyzed to determine the influence of test parameters on the data scatter. The impact damage resistance and damage tolerance of various structural configurations were characterized through the analysis of an industry wide database of impact test results. Realistic impact damage certification requirements were proposed based on actual fleet aircraft data. The capabilities of available impact damage analysis methods were determined through correlation with experimental data. Probabilistic methods were developed to estimate the reliability of impact damaged composite structures.

Rapoff, Andrew J.↗

Design and Analysis of Subscale and Full-Scale Buckling-Critical Cylinders for Launch Vehicle Technology Development

NASA s Shell Buckling Knockdown Factor (SBKF) project has the goal of developing new analysis-based shell buckling design factors (knockdown factors) and design and analysis technologies for launch vehicle structures. Preliminary design studies indicate that implementation of these new knockdown factors can enable significant reductions in mass and mass-growth in these vehicles. However, in order to validate any new analysis-based design data or methods, a series of carefully designed and executed structural tests are required at both the subscale and full-scale levels. This paper describes the design and analysis of three different orthogrid-stiffeNed metallic cylindrical-shell test articles. Two of the test articles are 8-ft-diameter, 6-ft-long test articles, and one test article is a 27.5-ft-diameter, 20-ft-long Space Shuttle External Tank-derived test article.

Hilburger, Mark W.↗

2017 GTO Project review Laboratory Evaluation of EGS Shear Stimulation.

The objectives and purpose of this research has been to produce laboratory-based experimental and numerical analyses to provide a physics-based understanding of shear stimulation phenomena (hydroshearing) and its evolution during stimulation. Water was flowed along fractures in hot and stressed fractured rock, to promote slip. The controlled laboratory experiments provide a high resolution/high quality data resource for evaluation of analysis methods developed by DOE to assess EGS “behavior” during this stimulation process. Segments of the experimental program will provide data sets for model input parameters, i.e., material properties, and other segments of the experimental program will represent small scale physical models of an EGS system, which may be modeled. The coupled lab/analysis project has been a study of the response of a fracture in hot, water-saturated fractured rock to shear stress experiencing fluid flow. Under this condition, the fracture experiences a combination of potential pore pressure changes and fracture surface cooling, resulting in slip along the fracture. The laboratory work provides a means to assess the role of “hydroshearing” on permeability enhancement in reservoir stimulation. Using the laboratory experiments and results to define boundary and input/output conditions of pore pressure, thermal stress, fracture shear deformation and fluid flow, and models were developed and simulations completed by the University of Oklahoma team. The analysis methods are ones used on field scale problems. The sophisticated numerical models developed contain parameters present in the field. The analysis results provide insight into the role of fracture slip on permeability enhancement-“hydroshear” is to be obtained. The work will provide valuable input data to evaluate stimulation models, thus helping design effective EGS.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Quantile Data Analysis of Image Data

Quantile data analysis and functional statistical inference methods are introduced and applied to provide representations of spectral data which may lead to simple statistical discriminators effective for the estimation of ground truth from satellite spectral measurements. To estimate the ground truth of a pixel, the probability of each possible ground truth is estimated, given observed (estimated) quantile theoretic statistical characteristics of the multispectral image data corresponding to the pixel and its neighboring pixels. A strategy for determining which statistical characteristics discriminate best is described. Results are reported of quantile data analysis of an extensive collection of training files of image data.

Parzen, E.↗

SU-F-T-468: Efficient Scanning Data Analysis for TomoTherapy

Purpose: The standard TomoTherapy 2D scanning system requires manual analysis using spreadsheets or similar software. Manual analysis is time consuming and does not allow efficient use of the medical physicist or timely results that may indicate issues during the acquisition of data. The purpose of this study is to determine if an in-house solution can provide timely analysis of TomoTherapy scan data. Methods: A custom MATLAB program utilizing a streamlined graphical interface was developed to interpret the native scanning data acquired by the TomoTherapy Electrometer Measurement System (TEMS). The gold beam data provided by the manufacturer was used as a baseline for the acquired data. Two separate sets of scan data were used including longitudinal, transverse, and percent depth dose (PDD). The scan data were compared visually in an overlay and analytically for each beam width using the full width half max (FWHM) for longitudinal profiles and difference inside the field core for the transverse profiles as recommended by TG-148. A plot of the PDD percent error at each point along the curve was generated to show agreement. The time to analysis was measured on a laptop running an Intel i5 processor with 8GB of RAM. Results: The software program required on average less than 5 seconds to load and analyze the results. No conversion or reformatting of the data was required. This allowed real-time visualization of the comparison to the gold beam data as well as the parameters recommended by TG-148. The average percent difference was 0.3% for the longitudinal profiles and 0.1% for the transverse profiles. All PDD data was less than 1% different beyond dmax. Conclusion: We have developed a tool to analyze TomoTherapy scan data in real-time. This allows an efficient method to perform beam commissioning, annual QA, and adjust the beam parameters if necessary.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

A Retrospective Analysis of the Benefits and Impacts of U.S. Renewable Portfolio Standards

This report, the second in the series, analyzes historical benefits and impacts of all state RPS policies, in aggregate, employing a consistent and well-vetted set of methods and data sets. The analysis focuses on three specific benefits: greenhouse gas emissions, air pollution, and water use. It also analyzes three other impacts: gross job additions, wholesale electricity market price suppression, and natural gas price suppression. These are an important subset, but by no means a comprehensive set, of all possible effects associated with RPS policies. These benefits and impacts are also subject to many uncertainties, which are described and, to the extent possible, quantified within the report.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Designing with figer-reinforced plastics (planar random composites)

The use of composite mechanics to predict the hygrothermomechanical behavior of planar random composites (PRC) is reviewed and described. These composites are usually made from chopped fiber reinforced resins (thermoplastics or thermosets). The hygrothermomechanical behavior includes mechanical properties, physical properties, thermal properties, fracture toughness, creep and creep rupture. Properties are presented in graphical form with sample calculations to illustrate their use. Concepts such as directional reinforcement and strip hybrids are described. Typical data that can be used for preliminary design for various PRCs are included. Several resins and molding compounds used to make PRCs are described briefly. Pertinent references are cited that cover analysis and design methods, materials, data, fabrication procedures and applications.

Chamis, C. C.↗

Radio Afterglow Detection and AI-driven Response (RADAR): A Federated Framework for Gravitational-wave Event Follow-up

The landmark detection of both gravitational waves (GWs) and electromagnetic (EM) radiation from the binary neutron star merger GW170817 has spurred efforts to streamline the follow-up of GW alerts in current and future observing runs of ground-based GW detectors. Within this context, the radio band of the EM spectrum presents unique challenges. Sensitive radio facilities capable of detecting the faint radio afterglow seen in GW170817, and with sufficient angular resolution, have small fields of view compared to typical GW localization areas. Additionally, theoretical models predict that the radio emission from binary neutron star mergers can evolve over weeks to years, necessitating long-term monitoring to probe the physics of the various postmerger ejecta components. These constraints, combined with limited radio observing resources, make the development of more coordinated follow-up strategies essential—especially as the next generation of GW detectors promises a dramatic increase in detection rates. Here, we present RADAR, a framework designed to address these challenges by promoting community-driven information sharing, federated data analysis, and system resilience, while integrating AI methods for both GW signal identification and radio data aggregation. We show that it is possible to preserve data rights while sharing models that can help design and/or update follow-up strategies. We demonstrate our approach through a case study of GW170817, and discuss future directions for refinement and broader application.

Gravitational waves↗

SANS quantification of bound water in water-soluble polymers across multiple concentration regimes

Contrast-variation small-angle neutron scattering (CV-SANS) is a widely used technique for quantifying hydration water in soft matter systems, but it is predominantly applied in the dilute regime or for systems with a well-defined structure factor. Here, CV-SANS was used to quantify the number of hydration water molecules associating with three water-soluble polymers with different critical solution temperatures and types of water–solute interactions in dilute, semidilute, and concentrated solution through the exploration of novel methods of data fitting and analysis. Multiple SANS fitting workflows with varying levels of model assumptions were evaluated and compared to give insight into SANS model selection. These fitting pathways ranged from general, model-free algorithms to more standard form and structure factor fitting. In addition, Monte Carlo bootstrapping was evaluated as a method to estimate parameter uncertainty through simulation of technical replicates. The most robust fitting workflow for dilute solutions was found to be form factor fitting without CV-SANS ( i.e. polymer in 100% D 2 O). For semidilute and concentrated solutions, while the model-free approach can be mathematically defined for CV-SANS data, the addition of a structure factor imposes physical constraints on the optimization problem, suggesting that the optimal fitting pathway should include appropriate form and structure factor models. The measured hydration numbers were consistent with the number of tightly bound water molecules associated with each monomer unit, and the concentration dependence of the hydration number was largely governed by the chemistry-specific interactions between water and polymer. Polymers with weaker water–polymer interactions ( i.e. those with fewer hydration water molecules) were found to have more bound water at higher concentrations than those with stronger water–polymer interactions due to the increase in the number of forced water–polymer contacts in the concentrated system. This SANS-based method to count hydration water molecules can be applied to polymers in any concentration regime, which will lead to improved understanding of water–polymer interactions and their impact on materials design.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Wavelet Denoising of Radio Observations of Rotating Radio Transients (RRATs): Improved Timing Parameters for Eight RRATs

Rotating radio transients (RRATs) are sporadically emitting pulsars detectable only through searches for single pulses. While over 100 RRATs have been detected, only a small fraction (roughly 20%) have phase-connected timing solutions, which are critical for determining how they relate to other neutron star populations. Detecting more pulses in order to achieve solutions is key to understanding their physical nature. Astronomical signals collected by radio telescopes contain noise from many sources, making the detection of weak pulses difficult. Applying a denoising method to raw time series prior to performing a single-pulse search typically leads to a more accurate estimation of their times of arrival (TOAs). Taking into account some features of RRAT pulses and noise, we present a denoising method based on wavelet data analysis, an image-processing technique. Assuming that the spin period of an RRAT is known, we estimate the frequency spectrum components contributing to the composition of RRAT pulses. This allows us to suppress the noise, which contributes to other frequencies. We apply the wavelet denoising method including selective wavelet reconstruction and wavelet shrinkage to the de-dispersed time series of eight RRATs with existing timing solutions. The signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) of most pulses are improved after wavelet denoising. Compared to the conventional approach, we measure 12%–69% more TOAs for the eight RRATs. The new timing solutions for the eight RRATs show 16%–90% smaller estimation error of most parameters. Thus, we conclude that wavelet analysis is an effective tool for denoising RRATs signal.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Online Rapid Analysis of Laser Heterodyne Radiometer (LHR) Data Using the Planetary Spectrum Generator (PSG)

One of the biggest challenges in developing scientific instruments is not just the build and testing of an instrument, but the method for processing the data and producing a consistent, well characterized data product that can be confidently used by the public and scientific community. Raw data products are frequently an array of numbers that are a read-out of voltages. The challenge is to convert these arrays into meaningful information as well as remove noise and interferences. Because this can be a tedious and time-consuming, the goal is to automate the process so that data ca be processed rapidly and be available in real-time for event monitoring. Here we present a rapid analysis method for Laser Heterodyne Radiometer (LHR) data that can be used to analyze data taken from a range of LHR observation modes (column, limb, etc.). This online tool uses the versatile Planetary Spectrum Generator (PSG) and allows LHR users to quickly analyze their own data using a NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) monitored capability to ensure quality and reproducibility in the data products. Background: Development of a miniaturized LHR (mini-LHR) as a ground instrument for measuring carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ) in the atmospheric column started in 2009 with the commercial availability of distributive feedback lasers (DFB) in wavelengths that could measure absorption of gases in the near-IR. As new DFB lasers, detectors and hardware emerged at different wavelengths, additional gases were added to the capability. The mini-LHR was adapted into an occultation-viewing CubeSat with Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) for observing CO 2 , CH 4 , and H 2 O in the limb and was launched in 2019. Other versions of the LHR technology have been designed for observation of water vapor in the lunar exosphere as well as observations of trace gases in planetary atmospheres and plumes from icy moons. The PSG is an online tool developed at GSFC that can be used for synthesizing Earth and planetary spectra (atmospheres and surfaces) over a broad range of wavelengths (0.1 μm to 100 mm) for any observatory, orbiter or lander. Spectra are simulated by combining several state-of-the-art radiative transfer models, spectroscopic databases, planetary databases, as well as modern-era retrospective analysis for research and applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) data set which provides meteorological inputs such as modeled surface pressure for calculating dry-air columns.

Emily Wilson↗

Tidal analysis of Met rocket wind data

A method of analyzing Met Rocket wind data is described. Modern tidal theory and specialized analytical techniques were used to resolve specific tidal modes and prevailing components in observed wind data. A representation of the wind which is continuous in both space and time was formulated. Such a representation allows direct comparison with theory, allows the derivation of other quantities such as temperature and pressure which in turn may be compared with observed values, and allows the formation of a wind model which extends over a broader range of space and time. Significant diurnal tidal modes with wavelengths of 10 and 7 km were present in the data and were resolved by the analytical technique.

Bedinger, J. F.↗