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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 829 records · Page 46
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2007

Bayesian Analysis of the Cosmic Microwave Background

There is a wealth of cosmological information encoded in the spatial power spectrum of temperature anisotropies of the cosmic microwave background! Experiments designed to map the microwave sky are returning a flood of data (time streams of instrument response as a beam is swept over the sky) at several different frequencies (from 30 to 900 GHz), all with different resolutions and noise properties. The resulting analysis challenge is to estimate, and quantify our uncertainty in, the spatial power spectrum of the cosmic microwave background given the complexities of "missing data", foreground emission, and complicated instrumental noise. Bayesian formulation of this problem allows consistent treatment of many complexities including complicated instrumental noise and foregrounds, and can be numerically implemented with Gibbs sampling. Gibbs sampling has now been validated as an efficient, statistically exact, and practically useful method for low-resolution (as demonstrated on WMAP 1 and 3 year temperature and polarization data). Continuing development for Planck - the goal is to exploit the unique capabilities of Gibbs sampling to directly propagate uncertainties in both foreground and instrument models to total uncertainty in cosmological parameters.

methods - statistical↗
DOE OSTI2016

Prediction on Underestimation of Statistical Uncertainty in Monte Carlo Eigenvalue Calculation for Two-dimensional Heterogeneous Color Set Geometry

In a Monte Carlo calculation, statistical uncertainty is inevitably included in the result. The statistical uncertainty is commonly estimated by the central limit theorem without considering correlation among generations. The statistical uncertainty is usually expected to decrease at the inverse square root of the number of neutron histories. However, in a Monte Carlo eigenvalue calculation in a large geometry whose dominance ratio is close to unity, the central limit theorem would not be valid and thus the statistical uncertainty of fission source distribution can be significantly underestimated when inter-cycle correlation is not appropriately taken into account. The true statistical uncertainty can be calculated by statistical processing of the results obtained by multiple Monte Carlo runs using different initial random seeds, but this approach has a drawback of large calculation cost. Therefore, prediction of true statistical uncertainty by alternate approach is desirable. One of the solutions for this issue is an evaluation method of statistical uncertainty based on the eigenfunction expansion and the Autoregressive model (AR model). In this method, the true statistical uncertainty is theoretically derived by applying the AR model to behavior of expansion coefficients of eigenfunction in fission source distribution during cycles. Underestimation ratio of statistical uncertainty of fission source distribution can be predicted by this method. Note that the underestimation ratio of statistical uncertainty is defined by the ratio of estimated error by a Monte Carlo calculation to the true statistical error. In the previous study, the proposed method was verified in a simple condition such as one energy group, one dimensional homogeneous slab geometry. Contributions of this summary are as follows. Firstly, expression of the noise term that is appeared in the AR model is theoretically derived. Secondly, prediction on underestimation ratio of statistical uncertainty is carried out in a more general case, i.e., flux of each fuel cell in 2 x 2 heterogeneous assembly geometry taken from the C5G7 benchmark problem. Through the present study, applicability of the theoretical prediction for underestimation of statistical uncertainty in practical problems will be verified. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Closing the Gap Between Modeling and Experiments in the Self-assembly of Biomolecules at Interfaces and in Solution

Molecular self-assembly is a powerful tool in materials design, wherein non-covalent interactions like electrostatic, hydrophobic, hydrogen bonding, and van der Waals can be exploited to produce supramolecular nanostructures that are functional and highly tunable. Biomolecules are attractive building blocks, as they are biocompatible, biodegradable and adopt a wide array of higher order structures. Moreover, naturally occurring protein systems display a manifold of structures and interactions that can be replicated in synthetic biomolecules. In this perspective, we highlight advances in multiscale simulation techniques across broad spatiotemporal scales that can aid in characterizing self-assembly of hybrid and hierarchical bionanomaterial systems, with an emphasis on physics-based simulation approaches currently employed to study biomolecules at mineral interfaces. The power of these approaches is highlighted across a few recent areas where molecular simulations have advanced our understanding of self-assembly spanning peptides to protein self-assembly. Looking forward, we discuss how in the near future emerging methods in statistical and machine learning will advance this research field in all areas from expanding the capabilities of physics-based simulation methods to enabling new analyses of high throughput experiments. These advances will pave the way for understanding the molecular recognition patterns in systems that are dictated by self-assembly - biomineralizing peptides, hierarchical peptoids, and large protein assemblies, and will aid in the development of a new synthesis science for achieving precise molecular control in materials design

Sampath, Janani↗
NASA NTRS2021

A Rapid Method for Orbital Coverage Statistics with J2 Using Ergodic Theory

Quantifying long-term statistical properties of satellite trajectories typically entails time-consuming trajectory propagation. We present a fast, ergodic1 method of an- alytically estimating these for J2− perturbed elliptical orbits, broadly agreeing with trajectory propagation-based values. We extend the approach in Graven and Lo (2019)2 to estimate: (1) Satellite-ground station coverage with limited satellite field of view and ground station elevation angle with numerically optimized for- mulae, and (2) long-term averages of general functions of satellite position. This method is fast enough to facilitate real-time, interactive tools for satellite constel- lation and network design, with an approximate 1000× GPU speedup.

Lo, Martin W↗
NASA NTRS1990

A method for modelling peak signal statistics on a mobile satellite transponder

A simulation method is proposed. The simulation was developed to model the peak duration and energy content of signal peaks in a mobile communication satellite operating in a Frequency Division Multiple Access (FDMA) mode and presents an estimate of those power peaks for a system where the channels are modeled as band limited Gaussian noise, which is taken as a reasonable representation for Amplitude Commanded Single Sideband (ACSSB), Minimum Shift Keying (MSK), or Phase Shift Keying (PSK) modulated signals. The simulation results show that, under this hypothesis, the level of the signal power peaks for 10 percent, 1 percent, and 0.1 percent of the time are well described by a Rayleigh law and that their duration is extremely short and inversely proportional to the total FDM system bandwidth.

Bilodeau, Andre↗
DOE OSTI2016

Statistical Sampling Plan for AGR-5/6/7 Fuel Materials

Kernels, coated particles, and compacts will be manufactured to predefined specifications for irradiation in the AGR 5/6/7 experiments. Many tests will be performed for quality assurance and most of these tests correspond to criteria that have to be met with 95% confidence, based on random samples. This report describes the statistical acceptance testing methods and gives minimum sample sizes for kernels to achieve 95% confidence. Coated particles and compacts will be addressed in revisions to this report. The methods used for sample size determination are described in detail in INL/EXT 05 00349, Statistical Methods Handbook for Advanced Gas Reactor Fuel Materials (Einerson 2005). The statistical approach is to collect a representative sample, apply an acceptance test to the sample, and accept or reject the product based on this test for each criterion. The criteria or “product specifications” are contained in SPC-1352, “AGR 5/6/7 Fuel Specification,” Revision 1 and are duplicated in this plan.

+↗
DOE OSTI2016

Performance analysis of Wald-statistic based network detection methods for radiation sources

There have been increasingly large deployments of radiation detection networks that require computationally fast algorithms to produce prompt results over ad-hoc sub-networks of mobile devices, such as smart-phones. These algorithms are in sharp contrast to complex network algorithms that necessitate all measurements to be sent to powerful central servers. In this work, at individual sensors, we employ Wald-statistic based detection algorithms which are computationally very fast, and are implemented as one of three Z-tests and four chi-square tests. At fusion center, we apply the K-out-of-N fusion to combine the sensors hard decisions. We characterize the performance of detection methods by deriving analytical expressions for the distributions of underlying test statistics, and by analyzing the fusion performances in terms of K, N, and the false-alarm rates of individual detectors. We experimentally validate our methods using measurements from indoor and outdoor characterization tests of the Intelligence Radiation Sensors Systems (IRSS) program. In particular, utilizing the outdoor measurements, we construct two important real-life scenarios, boundary surveillance and portal monitoring, and present the results of our algorithms.

Sen, Satyabrata↗
DOE OSTI2019

Data Trend Shifts Induced by Method of Concentration for Trace Metals in Seawater: Automated Online Preconcentration vs Borohydride Reductive Coprecipitation of Nearshore Seawater Samples for Analysis of Ni, Cu, Zn, Cd, and Pb via ICP-MS

This research compares performance, reproducibility, and detection limits of ambient seawater analysis for trace metals using both borohydride reductive co-precipitation and an automated chelation column (seaFAST™ 2) co-preconcentration for matrix interferent elimination on total and dissolved grab samples in nearshore to marine waters, over a broad concentration range, prior to ICP-MS injection. A move to an online preconcentration method both minimizes sample preparation, and eliminates correction errors when accounting for trace impurities in precipitated samples, induced via reagents. The reproducability of the online preconcentration method described, coupled with low blanks and method detection limits (MDLs), demonstrates an effective move to an automated procedure using ethylenediaminetriacetic and iminodiacetate acid chelation exchange resin and multi-analyte determination via ICP-MS for total and dissolved Ni, Cu, Zn, Cd, and Pb in marine water samples. Average CASS-5 recoveries using the online preconcentration method (n=9) were 109±7%, 104±5%, 103±7%, 101±3%, and 86±8% respectively. The MDLs obtained from the automated method for Ni, Cu, Zn, Cd and Pb were 3.3, 1.8, 13.5, 4, and 10 times lower, respectively, than for the Borohydride method. There were statistically significant differences between the methods for CASS-5 recoveries of Ni, Cu, Zn (p < 0.0001), and Pb (p = 0.0024). Comparison of methods gave high concordance (rC = 0.90) between methods for total and dissolved Ni, Cu, Zn, and Pb, and total Cd.

seaFAST, borohydride, seawater, Ethylenediaminetet↗
DOE OSTI2023

Measuring photometric redshifts for high-redshift radio source surveys

With the advent of deep, all-sky radio surveys, the need for ancillary data to make the most of the new, high-quality radio data from surveys like the Evolutionary Map of the Universe (EMU), GaLactic and Extragalactic All-sky Murchison Widefield Array survey eXtended, Very Large Array Sky Survey, and LOFAR Two-metre Sky Survey is growing rapidly. Radio surveys produce significant numbers of Active Galactic Nuclei (AGNs) and have a significantly higher average redshift when compared with optical and infrared all-sky surveys. Thus, traditional methods of estimating redshift are challenged, with spectroscopic surveys not reaching the redshift depth of radio surveys, and AGNs making it difficult for template fitting methods to accurately model the source. Machine Learning (ML) methods have been used, but efforts have typically been directed towards optically selected samples, or samples at significantly lower redshift than expected from upcoming radio surveys. This work compiles and homogenises a radio-selected dataset from both the northern hemisphere (making use of Sloan Digital Sky Survey optical photometry) and southern hemisphere (making use of Dark Energy Survey optical photometry). We then test commonly used ML algorithms such as k-Nearest Neighbours (kNN), Random Forest, ANNz, and GPz on this monolithic radio-selected sample. We show that kNN has the lowest percentage of catastrophic outliers, providing the best match for the majority of science cases in the EMU survey. We note that the wider redshift range of the combined dataset used allows for estimation of sources up to z = 3 before random scatter begins to dominate. When binning the data into redshift bins and treating the problem as a classification problem, we are able to correctly identify ≈ 76% of the highest redshift sources—sources at redshift z > 2.51 —as being in either the highest bin (z > 2.51) or second highest (z = 2.25).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Stereo Camera Simulator for Large-Eddy Simulations of Continental Shallow Cumulus Clouds Based on Three-Dimensional Path-Tracing

The complex spatial and temporal structure of cumulus clouds complicates their representation in weather and climate models. Classic meteorological instrumentation struggles to fully capture these features. Networks of multiple high-resolution hemispheric cameras are increasingly used to fill this data gap, and provide information on this missing multi-dimensional spatial information. In this study, a path-tracing algorithm is used to generate virtual camera images of resolved clouds in large-eddy simulations (LES). These images are then used as a camera network simulator, allowing reconstructions of three-dimensional cloud edges from the model output. Because the actual LES cloud field is fully known, the combined path-tracing and reconstruction method can be statistically analyzed. The method is applied to LES realizations of summertime shallow cumulus at the Jülich Observatory for Cloud Evolution (JOYCE), Germany, which also routinely operates a camera network. We find that the path-tracing method allows accurate reconstruction of up to 70% of the visible cloud edges. Additional sensitivity tests show that the method is robust for changes in its hyperparameters. The sensitivity to cloud optical thickness is also investigated, finding a cloud boundary placement error of approximately 182 m. This error can be considered typical for cloud boundary reconstruction using real stereo camera imagery. The results provide proof of principle for future use of the method for evaluating LES clouds against camera network imagery, and for further optimizing the configuration of such camera networks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Unraveling the discontinuous plastic flow of a Co-Cr-Fe-Ni-Mo multiprincipal-element alloy at deep cryogenic temperatures

We report an analysis of the discontinuous plastic flow of a multiprincipal-element alloy, Co 17.5 Cr 12.5 Fe 55 Ni 10 Mo 5 (atomic percent, at. %), in the temperature range of 0.5–4.2 K showing serrated deformation curves. Using the analytical techniques, we studied the statistics of the stress drops associated with the unstable plastic flow. The analysis showed that the complexity and heterogeneity of a discontinuous plastic flow were reduced when the temperature was lowered. This behavior was associated with the effects of dynamic recovery and adiabatic heating on the dislocation-density evolution.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian model mixing with multireference energy density functional

Reliably predicting nuclear properties across the entire chart of isotopes is important for applications ranging from nuclear astrophysics to superheavy science to nuclear technology. To this day, however, all the theoretical models that can scale at the level of the chart of isotopes remain semiphenomenological. Because they are fitted locally, their predictive power can vary significantly; different versions of the same theory provide different predictions. Bayesian model mixing takes advantage of such imperfect models to build a local mixture of a set of models to make improved predictions. Earlier attempts to use Bayesian model mixing for mass table calculations relied on models treated at single-reference energy density functional level, which fail to capture some of the correlations caused by configuration mixing or the restoration of broken symmetries. In this study we have applied Bayesian model mixing techniques within a multireference energy density functional (MR-EDF) framework. We considered predictions of two-particle separation energies from particle number projection or angular momentum projection with four different energy density functionals—a total of eight different MR-EDF models. We used a hierarchical Bayesian stacking framework with a Dirichlet prior distribution over weights together with an inverse log-ratio transform to enable positive correlations between different models. We found that Bayesian model mixing provides significantly improved predictions compared to the participating models. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Robust Period Estimation Using Mutual Information for Multiband Light Curves in the Synoptic Survey Era

The Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) will produce an unprecedented amount of light curves using six optical bands. Robust and efficient methods that can aggregate data from multidimensional sparsely sampled time-series are needed. Here, we present a new method for light curve period estimation based on quadratic mutual information (QMI). The presented method does not assume a particular model for the light curve nor its underlying probability density and it is robust to non-Gaussian noise and outliers. By combining the QMI from several bands the true period can be estimated even when no single-band QMI yields the period. Period recovery performance as a function of average magnitude and sample size is measured using 30,000 synthetic multiband light curves of RR Lyrae and Cepheid variables generated by the LSST Operations and Catalog simulators. The results show that aggregating information from several bands is highly beneficial in LSST sparsely sampled time-series, obtaining an absolute increase in period recovery rate up to 50%. We also show that the QMI is more robust to noise and light curve length (sample size) than the multiband generalizations of the Lomb–Scargle and AoV periodograms, recovering the true period in 10%–30% more cases than its competitors. A python package with efficient Cython implementations of the QMI and other methods is provided.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1990

Design synthesis and optimization of joined-wing transports

A computer program for aircraft synthesis using a numerical optimizer was developed to study the application of the joined-wing configuration to transport aircraft. The structural design algorithm included the effects of secondary bending moments to investigate the possibility of tail buckling and to design joined wings resistant to buckling. The structural weight computed using this method was combined with a statistically-based method to obtain realistic estimates of total lifting surface weight and aircraft empty weight. A variety of 'optimum' joined-wing and conventional aircraft designs were compared on the basis of direct operating cost, gross weight, and cruise drag. The most promising joined-wing designs were found to have a joint location at about 70 percent of the wing semispan. The optimum joined-wing transport is shown to save 1.7 percent in direct operating cost and 11 percent in drag for a 2000 nautical mile transport mission.

Gallman, John W.↗
DOE OSTI2016

Forecasting Wind and Solar Generation: Improving System Operations, Greening the Grid

This document discusses improving system operations with forecasting and solar generation. By integrating variable renewable energy (VRE) forecasts into system operations, power system operators can anticipate up- and down-ramps in VRE generation in order to cost-effectively balance load and generation in intra-day and day-ahead scheduling. This leads to reduced fuel costs, improved system reliability, and maximum use of renewable resources.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS2010

Estimation of Signal Coherence Threshold and Concealed Spectral Lines Applied to Detection of Turbofan Engine Combustion Noise

Combustion noise from turbofan engines has become important, as the noise from sources like the fan and jet are reduced. An aligned and un-aligned coherence technique has been developed to determine a threshold level for the coherence and thereby help to separate the coherent combustion noise source from other noise sources measured with far-field microphones. This method is compared with a statistics based coherence threshold estimation method. In addition, the un-aligned coherence procedure at the same time also reveals periodicities, spectral lines, and undamped sinusoids hidden by broadband turbofan engine noise. In calculating the coherence threshold using a statistical method, one may use either the number of independent records or a larger number corresponding to the number of overlapped records used to create the average. Using data from a turbofan engine and a simulation this paper shows that applying the Fisher z-transform to the un-aligned coherence can aid in making the proper selection of samples and produce a reasonable statistics based coherence threshold. Examples are presented showing that the underlying tonal and coherent broad band structure which is buried under random broadband noise and jet noise can be determined. The method also shows the possible presence of indirect combustion noise. Copyright 2011 Acoustical Society of America. This article may be downloaded for personal use only. Any other use requires prior permission of the author and the Acoustical Society of America.

Miles, Jeffrey Hilton↗
NASA NTRS1993

Anomaly detection of turbopump vibration in Space Shuttle Main Engine using statistics and neural networks

The statistical and neural networks methods have been applied to investigate the feasibility in detecting anomalies in turbopump vibration of SSME. The anomalies are detected based on the amplitude of peaks of fundamental and harmonic frequencies in the power spectral density. These data are reduced to the proper format from sensor data measured by strain gauges and accelerometers. Both methods are feasible to detect the vibration anomalies. The statistical method requires sufficient data points to establish a reasonable statistical distribution data bank. This method is applicable for on-line operation. The neural networks method also needs to have enough data basis to train the neural networks. The testing procedure can be utilized at any time so long as the characteristics of components remain unchanged.

Lo, C. F.↗