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At least 829 records · Page 46

National soil organic carbon estimates can improve global estimates

Global inventories of spatial and vertical distribution of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks are being used in national and global initiatives targeted to mitigate climate change and land degradation impacts. Yet, national level high-resolution estimates of SOC stocks can be useful for improving the accuracy of global SOC inventories. We estimated spatially resolved SOC stocks of surface 0–30 cm and subsurface 30–100 cm layers at a spatial resolution of 30m in tropical Island, Sri Lanka using a legacy harmonized soil database of 122 soil profiles. The national estimates were compared with two global estimates derived from WISE30sec and SoilGrids250m. The tropical Island (land area=64,610 km2) occupying 0.03% of global land area showed a considerable heterogeneity in SOC stocks ranging from 2.0-342.5 Mg ha -1 and 2.7-391.7 Mg ha -1 in the surface and subsurface soil layers, respectively. We found, elevation, precipitation and slope angle as main environmental controllers of the spatial distribution of SOC stocks under tropical climate. Incorporating the pedogenic information (derived from soil series level legacy map, soil orders and suborders) with environmental controllers resulted in better regression models of predicting surface (R 2 =0.61) and subsurface (R 2 =0.81) SOC stocks. Geographically weighted regression kriging derived maps of SOC stocks revealed that 0–100 cm soil layer of the tropical Island stored 500 Tg C contributing for 0.04% of the global SOC stocks. The validation results of our estimates showed low Mean Estimation Error (MEE: surface -1.6 and subsurface -1.6 Mg ha -1 ) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE: surface 29.5 and subsurface 24.9 Mg ha -1 ) indicating a low bias and satisfactory predictions. The relative improvement of the prediction accuracy of the SOC stocks of our geospatial estimates in the 0–30 cm layer in comparison to SoilGrids250m and WISE30sec data derived SOC stocks were 51.7% and 35.2%, respectively. The SOC stocks predictions of the 30-100 cm soil layer showed even better relative improvement compared to SoilGrids250m (78.4%) and WISE30sec (57.4%) SOC estimates. Compared to estimates of total SOC stocks resulted in this study, WISE30sec data derived SOC stock maps showed 30% over estimation of the C stock in surface 0-30 cm (332 Tg C) and 41% overestimation in 30-100 cm layer (343 Tg C). The over estimation of total SOC stocks by the SoilGrids250 SOC stocks map for the surface 0-30 cm layer was 122% (567 Tg C) and for the 30-100 cm layer it was 209% (750 Tg C). We conclude that the fusion of legacy soil information of SOC stocks with appropriate environmental covariates and pedogenic information derived from legacy area-class soil maps at national level can produce more accurate inventories of spatial and vertical distribution of SOC stocks. As a result, these national inventories have a great potential of upgrading global inventories of SOC stocks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Synapse v1.0

Synapse (SYNergistic software platform for AI, Physics Simulations, and Experiments) is a software package meant to deploy real-time guidance from simulations during experimental campaigns, The software package contains functionalities to collect data from simulations (e.g. running at NERSC) and experiments (e.g. from the BELLA facility at LBNL) into a database, train ML surrogate models from this data, and display the predictions of the surrogate model in the control room of an experimental facility, so as to guide on-going experimental campaign. This software was developed as part of an on-going LDRD.

Lehe, Remi [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory ↗

Nonrigid, Linear Plasma Response Model Based on Perturbed Equilibria for Axisymmetric Tokamak Control Design

Tokamak control design relies on an accurate linear model of the plasma response, which can often dominate the local field variations in regions under active feedback control. For example, when fluxes at selected points on the plasma boundary are regulated in DIII–D [1], the plasma response to a change in a coil current gives rise to a flux change which can be larger than and opposite to the flux change caused by the coil alone. In the past, rigid plasma models have been used for linear stability and shape control design. In a rigid model, the plasma current profile is considered fixed and moves rigidly in response to control coils to maintain radial and vertical force balance. In a nonrigid model, however, changes in the plasma shape and current profile are taken into account. Such models are expected to be important for future advanced tokamak control design. The present work describes development of a nonrigid plasma response model for high-accuracy multivariable control design and provides comparisons of model predictions against DIII-D experimental data. Finally, the linear perturbed plasma response model is calculated rapidly from an existing equilibrium solution.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A review on the application of machine learning for combustion in power generation applications

Abstract Although the world is shifting toward using more renewable energy resources, combustion systems will still play an important role in the immediate future of global energy. To follow a sustainable path to the future and reduce global warming impacts, it is important to improve the efficiency and performance of combustion processes and minimize their emissions. Machine learning techniques are a cost-effective solution for improving the sustainability of combustion systems through modeling, prediction, forecasting, optimization, fault detection, and control of processes. The objective of this study is to provide a review and discussion regarding the current state of research on the applications of machine learning techniques in different combustion processes related to power generation. Depending on the type of combustion process, the applications of machine learning techniques are categorized into three main groups: (1) coal and natural gas power plants, (2) biomass combustion, and (3) carbon capture systems. This study discusses the potential benefits and challenges of machine learning in the combustion area and provides some research directions for future studies. Overall, the conducted review demonstrates that machine learning techniques can play a substantial role to shift combustion systems towards lower emission processes with improved operational flexibility and reduced operating cost.

Engineering↗

Regulatory Considerations for Nuclear Energy Applications of Digital Twin Technologies

Digital twins (DTs) in complex industrial and engineering applications have potential benefits that include increased operational efficiencies, enhanced safety and reliability, improved security engineering, reduced errors, faster information sharing, and better predictions. The interest in DT technologies continues to grow, and many of these advanced technologies are expected to experience rapid and wide industry adoption in the near future. Some of the potential application areas for DTs in the nuclear industry are design, licensing, plant construction, training simulators, predictive operations and maintenance, autonomous operation and control, failure and degradation prediction, physical protection modeling and simulation, and safety and reliability analyses. The Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research at the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has initiated a future-focused research project to assess the regulatory viability of DTs for nuclear power plants and other NRC-regulated activities, such as fuel cycle facilities and operations. This report explores the potential impact of DT technologies in nuclear applications on NRC-regulated activities of interest. This report describes a nuclear DT system and its capabilities for nuclear power plant applications, followed by identification and discussion of some regulated activities that merit special consideration and present opportunities in implementing DT-enabling technologies and capabilities.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Using iterative random forest to find geospatial environmental and Sociodemographic predictors of suicide attempts

Despite a recent global decrease in suicide rates, death by suicide has increased in the United States. It is therefore imperative to identify the risk factors associated with suicide attempts to combat this growing epidemic. In this study, we aim to identify potential risk factors of suicide attempt using geospatial features in an Artificial intelligence framework. We use iterative Random Forest, an explainable artificial intelligence method, to predict suicide attempts using data from the Million Veteran Program. This cohort incorporated 405,540 patients with 391,409 controls and 14,131 attempts. Our predictive model incorporates multiple climatic features at ZIP-code-level geospatial resolution. We additionally consider demographic features from the American Community Survey as well as the number of firearms and alcohol vendors per 10,000 people to assess the contributions of proximal environment, access to means, and restraint decrease to suicide attempts. In total 1,784 features were included in the predictive model. Our results show that geographic areas with higher concentrations of married males living with spouses are predictive of lower rates of suicide attempts, whereas geographic areas where males are more likely to live alone and to rent housing are predictive of higher rates of suicide attempts. We also identified climatic features that were associated with suicide attempt risk by age group. Additionally, we observed that firearms and alcohol vendors were associated with increased risk for suicide attempts irrespective of the age group examined, but that their effects were small in comparison to the top features. Taken together, our findings highlight the importance of social determinants and environmental factors in understanding suicide risk among veterans.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Data-Driven Forgetting and Discount Factors for Vehicle Speed Forecasting in Ecological Adaptive Cruise Control

Abstract This paper investigates temporal correlations in human driving behavior using real-world driving to improve speed forecasting accuracy. These correlations can point to a measurement weighting function with two parameters: a forgetting factor for past speed measurements that the vehicle itself drove with, and a discount factor for the speeds of vehicles ahead based on information from vehicle-to-vehicle communication. The developed weighting approach is applied to a vehicle speed predictor using polynomial regression, a prediction method well-known in the literature. The performance of the developed approach is then assessed in both real-world and simulated traffic scenarios for accuracy and robustness. The new weighting method is applied to an ecological adaptive cruise control system, and its influence is analyzed on the prediction accuracy and the performance of the ecological adaptive cruise control in an electric vehicle powertrain model. The results show that the new prediction method improves energy saving from the eco-driving by up to 4.7% compared to a baseline least-square-based polynomial regression. This is a 10% improvement over the constant speed/acceleration model, a conventional speed predictor.

Automation & Control Systems↗

Tokamak divertor plasma emulation with machine learning

Abstract Future tokamak devices that aim to create conditions relevant to power plant operations must consider strategies for mitigating damage to plasma facing components in the divertor. One of the goals of MAST-U tokamak operations is to inform these considerations by researching advanced divertor configurations that aid stable plasma detachment. Machine design, scenario planning and detachment control would all greatly benefit from tools that enable rapid calculation of scenario-relevant quantities given some input parameters. This paper presents a method for generating large, simulated scrape-off layer data sets, which was applied to generate a data set of steady-state Hermes-3 simulations of the MAST-U tokamak. A machine learning model was constructed using a Bayesian approach to hyperparameter optimisation to predict diagnosable output quantities given control-relevant input features. The resulting best-performing model, which is based on a feedforward neural network, achieves high accuracy when predicting electron temperature at the divertor target and carbon impurity radiation front position and runs in around 1 ms in inference mode. Techniques for interpreting the predictions made by the model were applied, and a high-resolution parameter scan of upstream conditions was performed to demonstrate the utility of rapidly generating accurate predictions using the emulator. This work represents a step forward in the design of machine learning-driven emulators of tokamak exhaust simulation codes in operational modes relevant to divertor detachment control and plasma scenario design.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Regional environmental controllers influence continental scale soil carbon stocks and future carbon dynamics

Abstract Understanding the influence of environmental factors on soil organic carbon (SOC) is critical for quantifying and reducing the uncertainty in carbon climate feedback projections under changing environmental conditions. We explored the effect of climatic variables, land cover types, topographic attributes, soil types and bedrock geology on SOC stocks of top 1 m depth across conterminous United States (US) ecoregions. Using 4559 soil profile observations and high-resolution data of environmental factors, we identified dominant environmental controllers of SOC stocks in 21 US ecoregions using geographically weighted regression. We used projected climatic data of SSP126 and SSP585 scenarios from GFDL-ESM 4 Earth System Model of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 to predict SOC stock changes across continental US between 2030 and 2100. Both baseline and predicted changes in SOC stocks were compared with SOC stocks represented in GFDL-ESM4 projections. Among 56 environmental predictors, we found 12 as dominant controllers across all ecoregions. The adjusted geospatial model with the 12 environmental controllers showed an R 2 of 0.48 in testing dataset. Higher precipitation and lower temperatures were associated with higher levels of SOC stocks in majority of ecoregions. Changes in land cover types (vegetation properties) was important in drier ecosystem as North American deserts, whereas soil types and topography were more important in American prairies. Wetlands of the Everglades was highly sensitive to projected temperature changes. The SOC stocks did not change under SSP126 until 2100, however SOC stocks decreased up to 21% under SSP585. Our results, based on environmental controllers of SOC stocks, help to predict impacts of changing environmental conditions on SOC stocks more reliably and may reduce uncertainties found in both, geospatial and Earth System Models. In addition, the description of different environmental controllers for US ecoregions can help to describe the scope and importance of global and local models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Cybersecurity Anomaly Detection in SCADA-Assisted OT Networks Using Ensemble-Based State Prediction Model

The cybersecurity threats of power system gradually grow due to the increased sophisticated interactions between Information Technology (IT) and Operational Technology (OT) networks. False data injection attack (FDIA) that aims to compromise the Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) measurement and disturb the system operation is one of such cyber threats. Such attacks can potentially lead to significant operational issues at the control centers and substations, and hence, result in severe physical consequences. To avoid catastrophic failure across the power grid resulting from these attacks, it is essential to arm the OT network with real-time vulnerability assessment tools. To this end, this paper outlines various drawbacks of the Purdue architecture model to defend against cyberattacks in the OT network. Furthermore, a novel ensemble-based state prediction model is proposed to detect cybersecurity anomalies in SCADA assisted OT networks. The proposed model uses control center level generation and load forecasts, scheduled, and forced outages, power flow solutions, and the substation level historical data. The hypothesis of the proposed scheme relies on the fact that additional control center and substation data can hardly be accessed and compromised by attackers. One of the vital features of the proposed scheme is an hour-ahead prediction of the operational feasibility of the SCADA measurement range at the control center and substation in real time helps in detecting anomalies in measurements across both substation and the control center.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Neural-Network-Enhanced COTSIM: Advancing Predictive Capabilities for Fast DIII-D Simulations

Sustaining fusion reactions in tokamaks requires heating plasma to thermonuclear temperatures while maintaining confinement and stability. Neutral beam injection (NBI) provides heating, current drive, torque, and fueling, while electron cyclotron (EC) waves are widely used for heating and current drive; together, these actuators shape the plasma current, temperature, and density profiles. The control-oriented tokamak simulator (COTSIM), a predictive, control-oriented code, has been enhanced with neural-network surrogates for transport and sources. Turbulent transport is predicted by MMMnet—a neural-network version of the updated multimode model (MMM 9.0.10)—with significantly reduced computation time relative to MMM; neoclassical transport follows the Chang–Hinton model. NUBEAMnet, a surrogate of the Monte Carlo NUBEAM module, predicts beam-driven heating, current, and torque. EC heating and current drive use a control-oriented, empirically scaled source model; plasma resistivity follows the Spitzer formulation; bootstrap current uses the Sauter model. Equilibrium is computed using both prescribed and fixed-boundary solvers (FBSs), and the pedestal structure is modeled with an empirical pedestal model. For a representative DIII-D discharge, COTSIM predicts electron and ion temperature and safety-factor profiles in close agreement with TRANSP predictive and interpretive simulations while extending predictions through the pedestal region to the plasma edge (versus 80% of the minor radius in TRANSP). Furthermore, the equivalent COTSIM simulation runs in under 3 min compared to about 2 h for TRANSP, enabling rapid scenario planning, optimization of tokamak operation, and between-pulse control design.

Control-oriented tokamak simulator (COTSIM)↗

MODELING AND PARAMETRIC STUDY OF END-GAS AUTOIGNITION TO ALLOW THE REALIZATION OF ULTRA-LOW EMISSIONS, HIGH-EFFICIENCY HEAVY-DUTY SPARK-IGNITED NATURAL GAS ENGINES

Engine knock and misfire are barriers to pathways leading to high-efficiency Spark-Ignited (SI) Natural Gas (NG) engines. The general tendency to knock is highly dependent on engine operating conditions and the fuel reactivity. The problem is further complicated by the low emission limits and the wide range of chemical reactivity in pipeline-quality natural gas. Depending on the region and the source of the natural gas, its reactivity, described by its Methane Number (MN), which is analogous to the Octane Number for liquid SI fuels, can span from 65 to 95. In order to realize diesel-like efficiencies, SI NG engines must be designed to operate at high Brake Mean Effective Pressures (BMEP), near or beyond knock limits, over a wide range of fuel reactivity. This requires a deep understanding of the combustion-engine interactions pertaining to flame propagation and End-Gas Autoignition (EGAI), i.e., the autoignition of the unburned gas (end gas) ahead of the flame front. However, EGAI, if controlled, provides an opportunity to increase SI NG engine efficiency by increasing the combustion rate and the total fraction of burned fuel, mitigating the effects of the slow flame speeds characteristic of natural gas fuels, which generally reduce BMEP and increase unburned hydrocarbon emissions. For this reason, to realize diesel-like efficiencies and ultra-low emissions on SI NG engines, this work proposes the study of the main parameters influencing the modeling and prediction of NG EGAI to allow for its control. In this work, a novel EGAI detection and onset determination method was developed to reliably quantify EGAI for data analysis and engine control. The new method allowed the prediction of EGAI on SI NG engines without the need to use engine- and operating-condition-dependent thresholds and reduced the error in quantifying the fraction of the total energy released by the EGAI event by up to 40%pts. One- and three-dimensional engine models were then developed to study the engine/fuel interactions that lead to NG EGAI and its performance benefits. These models, although having decent agreement with experimental data, showed the need to account for NOx chemistry when predicting NG EGAI due to a consistently later prediction of the EGAI onset (~1.65 crank-angle degrees) and thus, a new reduced chemical mechanism for real NG fuels was developed containing NOx chemistry. The new reduced mechanism improved the EGAI onset prediction agreement to within ±0.5 crank-angle degrees and decreased simulation time during combustion by nearly 50% when using the further reduced AREIS50NOx chemical mechanism. These models were then used to study the role of NG composition on EGAI, evaluate the engine/fuel interactions leading to NG EGAI, and perform engine optimization while leveraging EGAI to increase thermal efficiency. Piston design optimization combined with a Controlled EGAI (C-EGAI) combustion mode allowed a Heavy-Duty (HD) SI NG engine to operate at diesel-like efficiencies, i.e., Brake Thermal Efficiency (BTE) ≥44%. Experimental and modeling data analysis revealed that earlier and faster heat release increases combustion efficiency by an average of 1%pts, increases work transferred to the piston resulting in a decrease in exhaust losses by 50% depending on the engine operating condition while slightly increasing heat losses. Finally, the simulation results revealed an opportunity to further enhance the BTE (up to 50%) by enabling C-EGAI combustion at leaner conditions, λ=1.4-1.6.

Bestel, Diego Bernardi↗

A Fuzzy-Logic Subsumption Controller for Home Energy Management Systems

Presentation for NAPS 2015 associated with conference publication CP-64392. Home Energy Management Systems (HEMS) are controllers that manage and coordinate the generation, storage, and loads in a home. These controllers are increasingly necessary to ensure that increasing penetrations of distributed energy resources are used effectively and do not disrupt the operation of the grid. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to HEMS design based on behavioral control methods, which do not require accurate models or predictions and are very responsive to changing conditions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

TRANSP-based optimization towards tokamak scenario development

An optimization approach that incorporates the predictive transport code TRANSP is proposed for tokamak scenario development. Optimization methods are often employed to develop open-loop control strategies to aid access to high performance tokamak scenarios. Generally, the optimization approaches use control-oriented models, i.e. models that are reduced in complexity and prediction accuracy as compared to physics-oriented transport codes such as TRANSP. In the presented approach, an optimization procedure using the TRANSP code to simulate the tokamak plasma is considered for improved predictive capabilities. As a test case, the neutral beam injection (NBI) power is optimized to develop a control strategy that maximizes the noninductive current fraction during the ramp-up phase for NSTX-U. Simulation studies towards the achievement of noninductive ramp-up in NSTX-U have already been carried out with the TRANSP code. The optimization-based approach presented in this work is used to maximize the noninductive current fraction during ramp-up in NSTX-U, demonstrating that the scenario development task can be automated. An additional test case considers optimization of the current ramp rate in DIII-D for obtaining a stationary plasma characterized by a flat loop voltage profile in the flattop phase.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Design and Analysis of a Wake Steering Controller with Wind Direction Variability

Wind farm control strategies are being developed to mitigate wake losses in wind farms, increasing energy production. Wake steering is a type of wind farm control in which a wind turbine's yaw position is misaligned from the wind direction, causing its wake to deflect away from downstream turbines. Current modeling tools used to optimize and estimate energy gains from wake steering are designed to represent wakes for fixed wind directions. However, wake steering controllers must operate in dynamic wind conditions and a turbine's yaw position cannot perfectly track changing wind directions. Research has been conducted on robust wake steering control optimized for variable wind directions. In this paper, the design and analysis of a wake steering controller with wind direction variability is presented for a two-turbine array using the FLOw Redirection and Induction in Steady State (FLORIS) control-oriented wake model. First, the authors propose a method for modeling the turbulent and low-frequency components of the wind direction, where the slowly varying wind direction serves as the relevant input to the wake model. Next, we explain a procedure for finding optimal yaw offsets for dynamic wind conditions considering both wind direction and yaw position uncertainty. We then performed simulations with the optimal yaw offsets applied using a realistic yaw offset controller in conjunction with a baseline yaw controller, showing good agreement with the predicted energy gain using the probabilistic model. Using the Gaussian wake model in FLORIS as an example, we compared the performance of yaw offset controllers optimized for static and dynamic wind conditions for different turbine spacings and turbulence intensity values. For a spacing of 5 rotor diameters and a turbulence intensity of 10%, robust yaw offsets optimized for variable wind directions yielded an energy gain improvement of 128%. In general, accounting for wind direction variability in the yaw offset optimization process was found to improve energy production more as the separation distance increased, whereas the relative improvement remained roughly the same for the range of turbulence intensity values considered.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Design and analysis of a wake steering controller with wind direction variability

Wind farm control strategies are being developed to mitigate wake losses in wind farms, increasing energy production. Wake steering is a type of wind farm control in which a wind turbine's yaw position is misaligned from the wind direction, causing its wake to deflect away from downstream turbines. Current modeling tools used to optimize and estimate energy gains from wake steering are designed to represent wakes for fixed wind directions. However, wake steering controllers must operate in dynamic wind conditions and a turbine's yaw position cannot perfectly track changing wind directions. Research has been conducted on robust wake steering control optimized for variable wind directions. In this paper, the design and analysis of a wake steering controller with wind direction variability is presented for a two-turbine array using the FLOw Redirection and Induction in Steady State (FLORIS) control-oriented wake model. First, the authors propose a method for modeling the turbulent and low-frequency components of the wind direction, where the slowly varying wind direction serves as the relevant input to the wake model. Next, we explain a procedure for finding optimal yaw offsets for dynamic wind conditions considering both wind direction and yaw position uncertainty. We then performed simulations with the optimal yaw offsets applied using a realistic yaw offset controller in conjunction with a baseline yaw controller, showing good agreement with the predicted energy gain using the probabilistic model. Using the Gaussian wake model in FLORIS as an example, we compared the performance of yaw offset controllers optimized for static and dynamic wind conditions for different turbine spacings and turbulence intensity values, assuming uniformly distributed wind directions. For a spacing of five rotor diameters and a turbulence intensity of 10 %, robust yaw offsets optimized for variable wind directions yielded an energy gain equivalent to 3.24 % of wake losses recovered, compared to 1.42 % of wake losses recovered with yaw offsets optimized for static wind directions. In general, accounting for wind direction variability in the yaw offset optimization process was found to improve energy production more as the separation distance increased, whereas the relative improvement remained roughly the same for the range of turbulence intensity values considered.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

TRANSP-based Optimization Towards Tokamak Scenario Development

An optimization approach that incorporates the predictive transport code TRANSP is proposed for tokamak scenario development. Optimization methods are often employed to develop open-loop control strategies to aid access to high performance tokamak scenarios. In general, the optimization approaches use control-oriented models, i.e. models that are reduced in complexity and prediction accuracy as compared to physics-oriented transport codes such as TRANSP. In the presented approach, an optimization procedure using the TRANSP code to simulate the tokamak plasma is considered for improved predictive capabilities. As a test case, the neutral beam injection (NBI) power is optimized to develop a control strategy that maximizes the non-inductive current fraction during the ramp-up phase for NSTX-U. Simulation studies towards the achievement of non-inductive ramp up in NSTX-U have already been carried out with the TRANSP code. The optimization-based approach proposed in this work is used to maximize the non-inductive current fraction during ramp-up in NSTX-U, demonstrating that the scenario development task can be automated. An additional test case considers optimization of the current ramp rate in DIII-D for obtaining a stationary plasma characterized bya flat loop voltage profile in the flattop phase.

DIII-D↗