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NASA NTRS2011

On-Orbit Spatial Characterization of MODIS with ASTER Aboard the Terra Spacecraft

This letter presents a novel approach for on-orbit characterization of MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) band-to-band registration (BBR) using Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) aboard the Terra spacecraft. The spatial resolution of ASTER spectral bands is much higher than that of MODIS, making it feasible to characterize MODIS on-orbit BBR using their simultaneous observations. The ground target selected for on-orbit MODIS BBR characterization in this letter is a water body, which is a uniform scene with high signal contrast relative to its neighbor areas. A key step of this approach is to accurately localize the measurements of each MODIS band in an ASTER measurement plane coordinate (AMPC). The ASTER measurements are first interpolated and aggregated to simulate the measurements of each MODIS band. The best measurement match between ASTER and each MODIS band is obtained when the measurement difference reaches its weighted minimum. The position of each MODIS band in the AMPC is then used to calculate the BBR. The results are compared with those derived from MODIS onboard Spectro-Radiometric Calibration Assembly. They are in good agreement, generally less than 0.1 MODIS pixel. This approach is useful for other sensors without onboard spatial characterization capability. Index Terms Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER), band-to-band registration (BBR), MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), spatial characterization.

Xie, Yong↗

NASA NTRS2011

CEDAR Electrodynamics Thermosphere Ionosphere (ETI) Challenge for Systematic Assessment of Ionosphere/Thermosphere Models: NmF2, hmF2, and Vertical Drift Using Ground-Based Observations

Objective quantification of model performance based on metrics helps us evaluate the current state of space physics modeling capability, address differences among various modeling approaches, and track model improvements over time. The Coupling, Energetics, and Dynamics of Atmospheric Regions (CEDAR) Electrodynamics Thermosphere Ionosphere (ETI) Challenge was initiated in 2009 to assess accuracy of various ionosphere/thermosphere models in reproducing ionosphere and thermosphere parameters. A total of nine events and five physical parameters were selected to compare between model outputs and observations. The nine events included two strong and one moderate geomagnetic storm events from GEM Challenge events and three moderate storms and three quiet periods from the first half of the International Polar Year (IPY) campaign, which lasted for 2 years, from March 2007 to March 2009. The five physical parameters selected were NmF2 and hmF2 from ISRs and LEO satellites such as CHAMP and COSMIC, vertical drifts at Jicamarca, and electron and neutral densities along the track of the CHAMP satellite. For this study, four different metrics and up to 10 models were used. In this paper, we focus on preliminary results of the study using ground-based measurements, which include NmF2 and hmF2 from Incoherent Scatter Radars (ISRs), and vertical drifts at Jicamarca. The results show that the model performance strongly depends on the type of metrics used, and thus no model is ranked top for all used metrics. The analysis further indicates that performance of the model also varies with latitude and geomagnetic activity level.

Shim, J. S.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Comparison of PARASOL Observations with Polarized Reflectances Simulated Using Different Ice Habit Mixtures

Insufficient knowledge of the habit distribution and the degree of surface roughness of ice crystals within ice clouds is a source of uncertainty in the forward light scattering and radiative transfer simulations required in downstream applications involving these clouds. The widely used MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Collection 5 ice microphysical model assumes a mixture of various ice crystal shapes with smooth-facets except aggregates of columns for which a moderately rough condition is assumed. When compared with PARASOL (Polarization and Anisotropy of Reflectances for Atmospheric Sciences coupled with Observations from a Lidar) polarized reflection data, simulations of polarized reflectance using smooth particles show a poor fit to the measurements, whereas very rough-faceted particles provide an improved fit to the polarized reflectance. In this study a new microphysical model based on a mixture of 9 different ice crystal habits with severely roughened facets is developed. Simulated polarized reflectance using the new ice habit distribution is calculated using a vector adding-doubling radiative transfer model, and the simulations closely agree with the polarized reflectance observed by PARASOL. The new general habit mixture is also tested using a spherical albedo differences analysis, and surface roughening is found to improve the consistency of multi-angular observations. It is suggested that an ice model incorporating an ensemble of different habits with severely roughened surfaces would potentially be an adequate choice for global ice cloud retrievals.

Cole, Benjamin H.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Blade Displacement Measurement Technique Applied to a Full-Scale Rotor Test

Blade displacement measurements using multi-camera photogrammetry were acquired during the full-scale wind tunnel test of the UH-60A Airloads rotor, conducted in the National Full-Scale Aerodynamics Complex 40- by 80-Foot Wind Tunnel. The objectives were to measure the blade displacement and deformation of the four rotor blades as they rotated through the entire rotor azimuth. These measurements are expected to provide a unique dataset to aid in the development and validation of rotorcraft prediction techniques. They are used to resolve the blade shape and position, including pitch, flap, lag and elastic deformation. Photogrammetric data encompass advance ratios from 0.15 to slowed rotor simulations of 1.0, thrust coefficient to rotor solidity ratios from 0.01 to 0.13, and rotor shaft angles from -10.0 to 8.0 degrees. An overview of the blade displacement measurement methodology and system development, descriptions of image processing, uncertainty considerations, preliminary results covering static and moderate advance ratio test conditions and future considerations are presented. Comparisons of experimental and computational results for a moderate advance ratio forward flight condition show good trend agreements, but also indicate significant mean discrepancies in lag and elastic twist. Blade displacement pitch measurements agree well with both the wind tunnel commanded and measured values.

Abrego, Anita I.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Best Merge Region Growing Segmentation with Integrated Non-Adjacent Region Object Aggregation

Best merge region growing normally produces segmentations with closed connected region objects. Recognizing that spectrally similar objects often appear in spatially separate locations, we present an approach for tightly integrating best merge region growing with non-adjacent region object aggregation, which we call Hierarchical Segmentation or HSeg. However, the original implementation of non-adjacent region object aggregation in HSeg required excessive computing time even for moderately sized images because of the required intercomparison of each region with all other regions. This problem was previously addressed by a recursive approximation of HSeg, called RHSeg. In this paper we introduce a refined implementation of non-adjacent region object aggregation in HSeg that reduces the computational requirements of HSeg without resorting to the recursive approximation. In this refinement, HSeg s region inter-comparisons among non-adjacent regions are limited to regions of a dynamically determined minimum size. We show that this refined version of HSeg can process moderately sized images in about the same amount of time as RHSeg incorporating the original HSeg. Nonetheless, RHSeg is still required for processing very large images due to its lower computer memory requirements and amenability to parallel processing. We then note a limitation of RHSeg with the original HSeg for high spatial resolution images, and show how incorporating the refined HSeg into RHSeg overcomes this limitation. The quality of the image segmentations produced by the refined HSeg is then compared with other available best merge segmentation approaches. Finally, we comment on the unique nature of the hierarchical segmentations produced by HSeg.

Tilton, James C.↗

NASA NTRS2010

The Cosmic Origins Spectrograph

The Cosmic Origins Spectrograph (COS) is a moderate-resolution spectrograph with unprecedented sensitivity that was installed into the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) in May 2009, during HST Servicing Mission 4 (STS-125). We present the design philosophy and summarize the key characteristics of the instrument that will be of interest to potential observers. For faint targets, with flux F(sub lambda) approximates 1.0 X 10(exp -14) ergs/s/cm2/Angstrom, COS can achieve comparable signal to noise (when compared to STIS echelle modes) in 1-2% of the observing time. This has led to a significant increase in the total data volume and data quality available to the community. For example, in the first 20 months of science operation (September 2009 - June 2011) the cumulative redshift pathlength of extragalactic sight lines sampled by COS is 9 times that sampled at moderate resolution in 19 previous years of Hubble observations. COS programs have observed 214 distinct lines of sight suitable for study of the intergalactic medium as of June 2011. COS has measured, for the first time with high reliability, broad Lya absorbers and Ne VIII in the intergalactic medium, and observed the HeII reionization epoch along multiple sightlines. COS has detected the first CO emission and absorption in the UV spectra of low-mass circumstellar disks at the epoch of giant planet formation, and detected multiple ionization states of metals in extra-solar planetary atmospheres. In the coming years, COS will continue its census of intergalactic gas, probe galactic and cosmic structure, and explore physics in our solar system and Galaxy.

Green, James C.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Daily and 3-hourly Variability in Global Fire Emissions and Consequences for Atmospheric Model Predictions of Carbon Monoxide

Attribution of the causes of atmospheric trace gas and aerosol variability often requires the use of high resolution time series of anthropogenic and natural emissions inventories. Here we developed an approach for representing synoptic- and diurnal-scale temporal variability in fire emissions for the Global Fire Emissions Database version 3 (GFED3). We disaggregated monthly GFED3 emissions during 2003.2009 to a daily time step using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) ]derived measurements of active fires from Terra and Aqua satellites. In parallel, mean diurnal cycles were constructed from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) Wildfire Automated Biomass Burning Algorithm (WF_ABBA) active fire observations. Daily variability in fires varied considerably across different biomes, with short but intense periods of daily emissions in boreal ecosystems and lower intensity (but more continuous) periods of burning in savannas. These patterns were consistent with earlier field and modeling work characterizing fire behavior dynamics in different ecosystems. On diurnal timescales, our analysis of the GOES WF_ABBA active fires indicated that fires in savannas, grasslands, and croplands occurred earlier in the day as compared to fires in nearby forests. Comparison with Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) and Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) column CO observations provided evidence that including daily variability in emissions moderately improved atmospheric model simulations, particularly during the fire season and near regions with high levels of biomass burning. The high temporal resolution estimates of fire emissions developed here may ultimately reduce uncertainties related to fire contributions to atmospheric trace gases and aerosols. Important future directions include reconciling top ]down and bottom up estimates of fire radiative power and integrating burned area and active fire time series from multiple satellite sensors to improve daily emissions estimates.

Mu, M.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Preliminary Assessment of Suomi-NPP VIIRS On-orbit Radiometric Performance

The Visible-Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) is a key instrument on-board the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP) spacecraft that was launched on October 28th 2011. VIIRS was designed to provide moderate and imaging resolution of most of the globe twice daily. It is a wide-swath (3,040 km) cross-track scanning radiometer with spatial resolutions of 370.and 740 m at nadir for imaging and moderate bands, respectively. It has 22 spectral bands covering the spectrum between 0.412 11m and 12.01 11m, including 14 reflective solar bands (RSB), 7 thermal emissive bands (TEB), and 1 day-night band (ON B). VIIRS observations are used to generate 22 environmental data products (EORs). This paper will briefly describe NPP VIIRS calibration strategies performed by the independent government team, for the initial on-orbit Intensive Calibration and Validation (ICV) activities. In addition, this paper will provide an early assessment of the sensor on-orbit radiometric performance, such as the sensor signal to noise ratios (SNRs), dual gain transition verification, dynamic range and linearity, reflective bands calibration based on the solar diffuser (SO) and solar diffuser stability monitor (SOSM), and emissive bands calibration based on the on-board blackbody calibration (OBC). A comprehensive set of performance metrics generated during the pre-launch testing program will be compared to VIIRS on-orbit early performance, and a plan for future cal/val activities and performance enhancements will be presented.

Oudrari, Hassan↗

NASA NTRS2013

Comparison Between NPP-VIIRS Aerosol Data Products and the MODIS AQUA Deep Blue Collection 6 Dataset Over Land

Aerosols are small particles suspended in the atmosphere and have a variety of natural and man-made sources. Knowledge of aerosol optical depth (AOD), which is a measure of the amount of aerosol in the atmosphere, and its change over time, is important for multiple reasons. These include climate change, air quality (pollution) monitoring, monitoring hazards such as dust storms and volcanic ash, monitoring smoke from biomass burning, determining potential energy yields from solar plants, determining visibility at sea, estimating fertilization of oceans and rainforests by transported mineral dust, understanding changes in weather brought upon by the interaction of aerosols and clouds, and more. The Suomi-NPP satellite was launched late in 2011. The Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) aboard Suomi-NPP is being used, among other things, to determine AOD. This study compares the VIIRS dataset to ground-based measurements of AOD, along with a state-of-the-art satellite AOD dataset (the new version of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer Deep Blue algorithm) to assess its reliability. The Suomi-NPP satellite was launched late in 2011, carrying several instruments designed to continue the biogeophysical data records of current and previous satellite sensors. The Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) aboard Suomi-NPP is being used, among other things, to determine aerosol optical depth (AOD), and related activities since launch have been focused towards validating and understanding this new dataset through comparisons with other satellite and ground-based products. The operational VIIRS AOD product is compared over land with AOD derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) observations using the Deep Blue (DB) algorithm from the forthcoming Collection 6 of MODIS data

Sayer, Andrew M.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Retrieval of Vertical LAI Profiles Over Tropical Rain Forests using Waveform Lidar at La Selva, Costa Rica

This study explores the potential of waveform lidar in mapping the vertical and spatial distributions of leaf area index (LAI) over the tropical rain forest of La Selva Biological Station in Costa Rica. Vertical profiles of LAI were derived at 0.3 m height intervals from the Laser Vegetation Imaging Sensor (LVIS) data using the Geometric Optical and Radiative Transfer (GORT) model. Cumulative LAI profiles obtained from LVIS were validated with data from 55 ground to canopy vertical transects using a modular field tower to destructively sample all vegetation. Our results showed moderate agreement between lidar and field derived LAI (r2=0.42, RMSE=1.91, bias=−0.32), which further improved when differences between lidar and tower footprint scales (r2=0.50, RMSE=1.79, bias=0.27) and distance of field tower from lidar footprint center (r2=0.63, RMSE=1.36, bias=0.0) were accounted for. Next, we mapped the spatial distribution of total LAI across the landscape and analyzed LAI variations over different land cover types. Mean values of total LAI were 1.74, 5.20, 5.41 and 5.62 over open pasture, secondary forests, regeneration forests after selective-logging and old-growth forests respectively. Lastly, we evaluated the sensitivities of our LAI retrieval model to variations in canopy/ground reflectance ratio and to waveform noise such as induced by topographic slopes. We found for both, that the effects were not significant for moderate LAI values (about 4). However model derivations of LAI might be inaccurate in areas of high-slope and high LAI (about 8) if ground return energies are low. This research suggests that large footprint waveform lidar can provide accurate vertical LAI profile estimates that do not saturate even at the high LAI levels in tropical rain forests and may be a useful tool for understanding the light transmittance within these canopies.

Tang, Hao↗

NASA NTRS2012

Global Burned Area and Biomass Burning Emissions from Small Fires

In several biomes, including croplands, wooded savannas, and tropical forests, many small fires occur each year that are well below the detection limit of the current generation of global burned area products derived from moderate resolution surface reflectance imagery. Although these fires often generate thermal anomalies that can be detected by satellites, their contributions to burned area and carbon fluxes have not been systematically quantified across different regions and continents. Here we developed a preliminary method for combining 1-km thermal anomalies (active fires) and 500 m burned area observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to estimate the influence of these fires. In our approach, we calculated the number of active fires inside and outside of 500 m burn scars derived from reflectance data. We estimated small fire burned area by computing the difference normalized burn ratio (dNBR) for these two sets of active fires and then combining these observations with other information. In a final step, we used the Global Fire Emissions Database version 3 (GFED3) biogeochemical model to estimate the impact of these fires on biomass burning emissions. We found that the spatial distribution of active fires and 500 m burned areas were in close agreement in ecosystems that experience large fires, including savannas across southern Africa and Australia and boreal forests in North America and Eurasia. In other areas, however, we observed many active fires outside of burned area perimeters. Fire radiative power was lower for this class of active fires. Small fires substantially increased burned area in several continental-scale regions, including Equatorial Asia (157%), Central America (143%), and Southeast Asia (90%) during 2001-2010. Globally, accounting for small fires increased total burned area by approximately by 35%, from 345 Mha/yr to 464 Mha/yr. A formal quantification of uncertainties was not possible, but sensitivity analyses of key model parameters caused estimates of global burned area increases from small fires to vary between 24% and 54%. Biomass burning carbon emissions increased by 35% at a global scale when small fires were included in GFED3, from 1.9 Pg C/yr to 2.5 Pg C/yr. The contribution of tropical forest fires to year-to-year variability in carbon fluxes increased because small fires amplified emissions from Central America, South America and Southeast Asia-regions where drought stress and burned area varied considerably from year to year in response to El Nino-Southern Oscillation and other climate modes.

Randerson, J. T.↗

NASA NTRS2013

A Leonard-Sanders-Budiansky-Koiter-Type Nonlinear Shell Theory with a Hierarchy of Transverse-Shearing Deformations

A detailed exposition on a refined nonlinear shell theory suitable for nonlinear buckling analyses of laminated-composite shell structures is presented. This shell theory includes the classical nonlinear shell theory attributed to Leonard, Sanders, Koiter, and Budiansky as an explicit proper subset. This approach is used in order to leverage the exisiting experience base and to make the theory attractive to industry. In addition, the formalism of general tensors is avoided in order to expose the details needed to fully understand and use the theory. The shell theory is based on "small" strains and "moderate" rotations, and no shell-thinness approximations are used. As a result, the strain-displacement relations are exact within the presumptions of "small" strains and "moderate" rotations. The effects of transverse-shearing deformations are included in the theory by using analyst-defined functions to describe the through-the-thickness distributions of transverse-shearing strains. Constitutive equations for laminated-composite shells are derived without using any shell-thinness approximations, and simplified forms and special cases are presented.

Nemeth, Michael P.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Weather Avoidance Guidelines for NASA Global Hawk High-Altitude UAS

NASA operates two Global Hawk unmanned aircraft systems for Earth Science research projects. In particular, they are used in the Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) project during 2012, 2013, and 2014 to take measurements from the environment around tropical cyclones, and from directly above tropical cyclones. There is concern that strict adherence to the weather avoidance rules used in 2012 may sacrifice the ability to observe important science targets. We have proposed modifications to these weather avoidance rules that we believe will improve the ability to observe science targets without compromising aircraft safety. The previous guidelines, used in 2012, specified: Do not approach thunderstorms within 25 nm during flight at FL500 or below. When flying above FL500: Do not approach reported lightning within 25NM in areas where cloud tops are reported at FL500 or higher. Aircraft should maintain at least 10000 ft vertical separation from reported lightning if cloud tops are below FL500. No over-flight of cumulus tops higher than FL500. No flight into forecast or reported icing conditions. No flight into forecast or reported moderate or severe turbulence Based on past experience with high-altitude flights over tropical cyclones, we have recommended changing this guidance to: Do not approach thunderstorms within 25 nm during flight at FL500 or below. Aircraft should maintain at least 5000 ft vertical separation from significant convective cloud tops except: a) When cloud tops above FL500: In the event of reported significant lightning activity or indicators of significant overshooting tops, do not approach within 10-25 nm, depending on pilot discretion and advice from Mission Scientist. b) When cloud tops are below FL500, maintain 10000 ft separation from reported significant lightning or indicators of significant overshooting tops. No flight into forecasted or reported icing conditions. No flight into forecasted or reported moderate or severe turbulence The key changes have to do with overflight of high convective cloud tops and those producing lightning. Experience shows that most tropical oceanic convection (including that in tropical cyclones) is relatively gentle even if the cloud tops are quite high, and can be safely overflown. Exceptions are convective elements producing elevated lightning flash rates (more than just the occasional flash, which would trigger avoidance under the previous rules) and significant overshooting cloud tops.

Cecil, Daniel J.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Using Satellite Imagery to Identify Tornado Damage Tracks and Recovery from the April 27, 2011 Severe Weather Outbreak

Emergency response to natural disasters requires coordination between multiple local, state, and federal agencies. Single, relatively weak tornado events may require comparatively simple response efforts; but larger "outbreak" events with multiple strong, long-track tornadoes can benefit from additional tools to help expedite these efforts. Meteorologists from NOAA's National Weather Service conduct field surveys to map tornado tracks, assess damage, and determine the tornado intensity following each event. Moderate and high resolution satellite imagery can support these surveys by providing a high-level view of the affected areas. Satellite imagery could then be used to target areas for immediate survey or to corroborate the results of the survey after it is completed. In this study, the feasibility of using satellite imagery to identify tornado damage tracks was determined by comparing the characteristics of tracks observed from low-earth orbit to tracks assessed during the official NWS storm survey process. Of the 68 NWS confirmed centerlines, 24 tracks (35.3%) could be distinguished from other surface features using satellite imagery. Within each EF category, 0% of EF-0, 3% of EF-1, 50% of EF-2, 77.7% of EF-3, 87.5% of EF-4 and 100% of EF-5 tornadoes were detected. It was shown that satellite data can be used to identify tornado damage tracks in MODIS and ASTER NDVI imagery, where damage to vegetation creates a sharp drop in values though the minimum EF-category which can be detected is dependent upon the type of sensor used and underlying vegetation. Near-real time data from moderate resolution sensors compare favorably to field surveys after the event and suggest that the data can provide some value in the assessment process.

Cole, Tony A.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Using Satellite Imagery to Identify Tornado Damage Tracks and Recovery from the April 27, 2011 Severe Weather Outbreak

Molthan, Andrew L.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Interpretation of Variations in Modis-Measured Greenness Levels of Amazon Forests During 2000 to 2009

This work investigates variations in satellite-measured greenness of Amazon forests using ten years of NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) enhanced vegetation index (EVI) data. Corruption of optical remote sensing data with clouds and aerosols is prevalent in this region; filtering corrupted data causes spatial sampling constraints, as well as reducing the record length, which introduces large biases in estimates of greenness anomalies. The EVI data, analyzed in multiple ways and taking into account EVI accuracy, consistently show a pattern of negligible changes in the greenness levels of forests both in the area affected by drought in 2005 and outside it. Small random patches of anomalous greening and browning-especially prominent in 2009-appear in all ten years, irrespective of contemporaneous variations in precipitation, but with no persistence over time. The fact that over 90% of the EVI anomalies are insignificantly small-within the envelope of error (95% confidence interval) in EVI-warrants cautious interpretation of these results: there were no changes in the greenness of these forests, or if there were changes, the EVI data failed to capture these either because the constituent reflectances were saturated or the moderate resolution precluded viewing small-scale variations. This suggests a need for more accurate and spatially resolved synoptic views from satellite data and corroborating comprehensive ground sampling to understand the greenness dynamics of these forests.

MODIS↗

NASA NTRS2014

Global Warming and 21st Century Drying

Global warming is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of droughts in the twenty-first century, but the relative contributions from changes in moisture supply (precipitation) versus evaporative demand (potential evapotranspiration; PET) have not been comprehensively assessed. Using output from a suite of general circulation model (GCM) simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, projected twentyfirst century drying and wetting trends are investigated using two offline indices of surface moisture balance: the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). PDSI and SPEI projections using precipitation and Penman- Monteith based PET changes from the GCMs generally agree, showing robust cross-model drying in western North America, Central America, the Mediterranean, southern Africa, and the Amazon and robust wetting occurring in the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes and east Africa (PDSI only). The SPEI is more sensitive to PET changes than the PDSI, especially in arid regions such as the Sahara and Middle East. Regional drying and wetting patterns largely mirror the spatially heterogeneous response of precipitation in the models, although drying in the PDSI and SPEI calculations extends beyond the regions of reduced precipitation. This expansion of drying areas is attributed to globally widespread increases in PET, caused by increases in surface net radiation and the vapor pressure deficit. Increased PET not only intensifies drying in areas where precipitation is already reduced, it also drives areas into drought that would otherwise experience little drying or even wetting from precipitation trends alone. This PET amplification effect is largest in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, and is especially pronounced in western North America, Europe, and southeast China. Compared to PDSI projections using precipitation changes only, the projections incorporating both precipitation and PET changes increase the percentage of global land area projected to experience at least moderate drying (PDSI standard deviation of < or = -1) by the end of the twenty-first century from 12 to 30 %. PET induced moderate drying is even more severe in the SPEI projections (SPEI standard deviation of > or = -1; 11 to 44 %), although this is likely less meaningful because much of the PET induced drying in the SPEI occurs in the aforementioned arid regions. Integrated accounting of both the supply and demand sides of the surface moisture balance is therefore critical for characterizing the full range of projected drought risks tied to increasing greenhouse gases and associated warming of the climate system.

moisture↗

NASA NTRS2014

Comet C2012 S1 (ISON)s Carbon-rich and Micron-size-dominated Coma Dust

Comet C/2012 S1 (ISON) was unique in that it was a dynamically new comet derived from the Nearly Isotropic Oort cloud reservoir of comets with a sun-grazing orbit. We present thermal models for comet ISON (rh approx.1.15 AU, 2013-Oct-25 11:30 UT) that reveal comet ISON's dust was carbon-rich and dominated by a narrow size distribution dominated by approx. micron-sized grains. We constrained the models by our SOFIA FORCAST photometry at 11.1, 19.7 and 31.5 microns and by a silicate feature strength of approx.1.1 and an 8-13microns continuum greybody color temperature of approx. 275-280 K (using Tbb ∝ r−0.5 h and Tbb approx. 260-265 K from Subaru COMICS, 2013-Oct-19 UT)[1,2]. N-band spectra of comet ISON with the BASS instrument on the NASA IRTF (2013-Nov-11-12 UT) show a silicate feature strength of approx. 1.1 and an 11.2microns forsterite peak.[3] Our thermal models yield constraints the dust composition as well as grain size distribution parameters: slope, peak grain size, porosity. Specifically, ISON's dust has a low silicate-to- amorphous carbon ratio (approx. 1:9), and the coma size distribution has a steep slope (N4.5) such that the coma is dominated by micron-sized, moderately porous, carbon-rich dust grains. The N-band continuum color temperature implies submicronto micron-size grains and the steep fall off of the SOFIA far-IR photometry requires the size distribution to have fewer relative numbers of larger and cooler grains compared to smaller and hotter grains. A proxy for the dust production rate is fρ approx.1500 cm, akin to Afρ. ISON has a moderate-to-low dust-to-gas ratio. Comet ISON's dust grain size distribution does not appear similar to the few well-studied long-period Nearly Isotropic Comets (NICs), namely C/1995 O1 (Hale-Bopp) and C/2001 Q4 (NEAT) that had smaller and/or more highly porous grains and larger sizes, or C/2007 N4 (Lulin) and C/2006 P1 (McNaught) that had large and/or compact grains. Radial transport to comet-forming disk distances (≥ 20 AU) is easier for smaller grains (≤1 micron) than for larger grains (approx. 20 microns like Stardust terminal particles). The presence of predominantly micron-sized and smaller grains suggests comet ISON may have formed either earlier in disk evolution whereby larger grains did not have the time to be transported to distances beyond Neptune, or the comet formed so far out in the disk that larger grains did not traverse such large radial distances. The high carbon-content of ISON's refractory dust appears to be complimented by the presence of limitedlifetime organic (CHON-like) grain materials: preliminary analyses of near-IR and high-resolution optical spectra indicate that gas-phase daughter molecules C2, CN, and CH were more abundant than their parent molecules (C2H2, C2H6, measured in the near- IR). Dust composition as well as grain size distribution parameters (slope, peak grain size, and porosity) give clues to comet origins.

NASA/DLR Stratospheric Observatory↗