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At least 829 records · Page 46

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DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian Parameter Estimation of the k-ω Shear Stress Transport Model for Accurate Simulations of Impinging-Jet Heat Transfer

Given the lack of fusion-relevant component test facilities, current estimates of the thermo-fluid performance of plasma-facing components are based for the most part on numerical simulations. A major source of uncertainty in these simulations is the semiempirical turbulence (closure) models for the Reynolds stresses appearing in the governing Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations, which involve a set of constants that depend upon the flow. The objective of this study is to evaluate Bayesian parameter estimation of turbulence closure constants in ANSYS Fluent to model heat transfer in impinging jets. The Bayesian statistical calibration produces a probability distribution for these constants from experimental data; the maximum a posteriori estimates are then taken to be the calibrated constants, or parameters. The turbulence model constants are calibrated using an experimental study of a submerged jet of air impinging on a flat heated surface at Reynolds numbers Re = O(10 4 ) and impingement distance in jet diameters H/d = 2. Numerical predictions using the calibrated model parameters are then compared with those generated using the default constants. Predictions obtained with model parameters calibrated on datasets of two different sizes are compared to evaluate the effect of the number of calibration samples. Lastly, the extrapolative ability of the calibrated model is examined by predictions at a Re beyond the calibration values.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Novel Framework to Quantify Power Grid Resilience

The quantification of an operating power grid’s resilience is highly significant today, given its criticality as an enabler of other infrastructures, complexity, and the threat it faces due to a wide range of detrimental events, from extreme climate to cyber attacks. Currently, there exist no standardized definitions and metrics for measuring the resilience of an operating grid. In this paper, we introduce a novel resilience quantification framework and demonstrate a method to measure the flexibility towards topological/structural changes due to potential failures in the power grid to assess operational resilience. We start with the state estimation data from a large utility and use the graph analysis methods and power flow simulation tools to compute the identified resilience parameters.

Yoginath, Srikanth↗

DOE OSTI2020

Report for Department of State (DoS) V-Fund Project "Tying Moment Tensor Solutions to Explosive Yield"

The goal of this study was to use U.S. nuclear explosions with known source parameters (yield, depth, shot point material and/or parameters) to determine moment-derived yield estimates. This work has been accomplished by performing full moment tensor solutions using regional network data from the LLNL network, and other regional broadband stations. As part of this study, we have calculated solutions for 130 U.S. nuclear explosions and 12 additional chemical explosions. We then take several approaches to using moment tensors to estimate yield, considering both the full and isotropic moment tensors, doing straight regression analysis on the whole dataset, then successively refining the calibration with additional information about material and overburden. We have also tried a completely new approach of using the seismic moment to help estimate the radiated seismic energy and tying this to yield through a seismic efficiency. Results appear to be promising, but more work might be required to make this more useful in an operational sense.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1987

Positron annihilation at the Galactic center

The efficiency of production of positrons by gamma-gamma interaction under conditions which may occur in the Galactic center. Their annihilation line and three-photon annihilation continuum contribute to the emitted radiation. If a geometrical model is assumed, it will be possible to determine the parameters of the gamma-ray source region. By comparing the computed spectra to observations, a rough estimate is made using extant data.

Carrigan, B. J.↗

NASA NTRS1991

A comparison of time domain boundary conditions for acoustic waves in wave guides

Researchers consider several types of boundary conditions in the context of time domain models for acoustic waves. Experiments with four different duct terminations (hard wall, free radiation, foam, and wedge) were carried out in a wave duct from which reflection coefficients over a wide frequency range were measured. These reflection coefficients were used to estimate parameters in the time domain boundary conditions. A comparison of the relative merits of the models in describing the data is presented. Boundary conditions which yield a good fit of the model to the experimental data were found for all duct terminations except the wedge.

Banks, H. T.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Flight data acquisition methodology for validation of passive ranging algorithms for obstacle avoidance

An account is given of the methodology used to develop a data base containing low altitude imagery, augmented with the rotorcraft and sensor parameters required for passive-range estimation. The bata base is predicated on flight test data encompassing imagery, rotorcraft and sensor parameters, and ground truth range measurements. Data preparation was conducted by means of a novel technique for obtaining the sensor-calibration parameters. The data-base thus obtained will facilitate further development of computer vision-based obstacle-detection and passive range-estimation algorithms, as well as furnish a benchmark for verification of range estimates against ground-truth estimates.

Smith, Phillip N.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Synegies Between Visible/Near-Infrared Imaging Spectrometry and the Thermal Infrared in an Urban Environment: An Evaluation of the Hyperspectral Infrared Imager (HYSPIRI) Mission

A majority of the human population lives in urban areas and as such, the quality of urban environments is becoming increasingly important to the human population. Furthermore, these areas are major sources of environmental contaminants and sinks of energy and materials. Remote sensing provides an improved understanding of urban areas and their impacts by mapping urban extent, urban composition (vegetation and impervious cover fractions), and urban radiation balance through measures of albedo, emissivity and land surface temperature (LST). Recently, the National Research Council (NRC) completed an assessment of remote sensing needs for the next decade (NRC, 2007), proposing several missions suitable for urban studies, including a visible, near-infrared and shortwave infrared (VSWIR) imaging spectrometer and a multispectral thermal infrared (TIR) instrument called the Hyperspectral Infrared Imagery (HyspIRI). In this talk, we introduce the HyspIRI mission, focusing on potential synergies between VSWIR and TIR data in an urban area. We evaluate potential synergies using an Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) and MODIS-ASTER (MASTER) image pair acquired over Santa Barbara, United States. AVIRIS data were analyzed at their native spatial resolutions (7.5m VSWIR and 15m TIR), and aggregated 60 m spatial resolution similar to HyspIRI. Surface reflectance was calculated using ACORN and a ground reflectance target to remove atmospheric and sensor artifacts. MASTER data were processed to generate estimates of spectral emissivity and LST using Modtran radiative transfer code and the ASTER Temperature Emissivity Separation algorithm. A spectral library of common urban materials, including urban vegetation, roofs and roads was assembled from combined AVIRIS and field-measured reflectance spectra. LST and emissivity were also retrieved from MASTER and reflectance/emissivity spectra for a subset of urban materials were retrieved from co-located MASTER and AVIRIS pixels. Fractions of Impervious, Soil, Green Vegetation (GV) and Non-photosynthetic Vegetation (NPV), were estimated using Multiple Endmember Spectral Mixture Analysis (MESMA) applied to AVIRIS data at 7.5, 15 and 60 m spatial scales. Surface energy parameters, including albedo, vegetation cover fraction, broadband emissivity and LST were also determined for urban and natural land-cover classes in the region. Fractions were validated using 1m digital photography.

Roberts, Dar A.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Real Time Volcanic Cloud Products and Predictions for Aviation Alerts

Volcanic eruptions can inject significant amounts of sulfur dioxide (SO2) and volcanic ash into the atmosphere, posing a substantial risk to aviation safety. Ingesting near-real time and Direct Readout satellite volcanic cloud data is vital for improving reliability of volcanic ash forecasts and mitigating the effects of volcanic eruptions on aviation and the economy. NASA volcanic products from the Ozone Monitoring Insrument (OMI) aboard the Aura satellite have been incorporated into Decision Support Systems of many operational agencies. With the Aura mission approaching its 10th anniversary, there is an urgent need to replace OMI data with those from the next generation operational NASA/NOAA Suomi National Polar Partnership (SNPP) satellite. The data provided from these instruments are being incorporated into forecasting models to provide quantitative ash forecasts for air traffic management. This study demonstrates the feasibility of the volcanic near-real time and Direct Readout data products from the new Ozone Monitoring and Profiling Suite (OMPS) ultraviolet sensor onboard SNPP for monitoring and forecasting volcanic clouds. The transition of NASA data production to our operational partners is outlined. Satellite observations are used to constrain volcanic cloud simulations and improve estimates of eruption parameters, resulting in more accurate forecasts. This is demonstrated for the 2012 eruption of Copahue. Volcanic eruptions are modeled using the Goddard Earth Observing System, Version 5 (GEOS-5) and the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol and Radiation Transport (GOCART) model. A hindcast of the disruptive eruption from Iceland's Eyjafjallajokull is used to estimate aviation re-routing costs using Metron Aviation's ATM Tools.

Volcanic ash↗

NASA NTRS2018

Modeling of Time-Dependent Strength Degradation of SiC/SiC Ceramic Matrix Composites via MAC/GMC Computer Code

Silicon carbide fiber reinforced silicon carbide (SiC/SiC) ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) display time-dependent strength degradation at intermediate temperatures (600 to 900 degrees Centigrade). This is generally believed to be an oxidation induced phenomenon. The understanding of the effect of temperature with environment (oxidation) is key towards development of SiC/SiC CMCs with a reliable load carrying capacity. Various theories have been proposed to explain the strength degradation. One suggests that the boron nitride (BN) coating deposited on the fibers oxidizes causing fusion of fibers. Another theory proposes that the SiC fibers are oxidized forming a silica scale leading to premature fiber failure. A more recent theory suggests that SiC fiber strength is intrinsically time-dependent due to slow crack growth of flaws in the fibers. An empirical model, termed as a "fiber classic model," which is based on a standard slow crack growth type power-law, has been implemented within NASA's micromechanics-based MAC/GMC computer code as a user routine. Model parameters for this "classic model" were calibrated from stress-rupture data of Hi-Nicalon (TM) monofilaments using the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) technique. This new capability in the MAC/GMC computer code was then used to predict the stress-rupture behavior of Hi-Nicalon (TM) tows as well as 2-D SiC/SiC composites reinforced with Hi-Nicalon (TM) fibers. Results demonstrate that the MAC/GMC with this new capability successfully predicts the time-to-failure vs. applied stress within the intermediate temperature range at various scales as well as laminated composites in an oxidizing environment.

Environmental degradation↗

NASA NTRS2013

Regression Analysis of Top of Descent Location for Idle-thrust Descents

In this paper, multiple regression analysis is used to model the top of descent (TOD) location of user-preferred descent trajectories computed by the flight management system (FMS) on over 1000 commercial flights into Melbourne, Australia. The independent variables cruise altitude, final altitude, cruise Mach, descent speed, wind, and engine type were also recorded or computed post-operations. Both first-order and second-order models are considered, where cross-validation, hypothesis testing, and additional analysis are used to compare models. This identifies the models that should give the smallest errors if used to predict TOD location for new data in the future. A model that is linear in TOD altitude, final altitude, descent speed, and wind gives an estimated standard deviation of 3.9 nmi for TOD location given the trajec- tory parameters, which means about 80% of predictions would have error less than 5 nmi in absolute value. This accuracy is better than demonstrated by other ground automation predictions using kinetic models. Furthermore, this approach would enable online learning of the model. Additional data or further knowl- edge of algorithms is necessary to conclude definitively that no second-order terms are appropriate. Possible applications of the linear model are described, including enabling arriving aircraft to fly optimized descents computed by the FMS even in congested airspace. In particular, a model for TOD location that is linear in the independent variables would enable decision support tool human-machine interfaces for which a kinetic approach would be computationally too slow.

trajectory prediction↗

DOE OSTI2022

Multi-area parameter error identification for large power systems

Power grid model parameters may contain errors due to various reasons. Detecting and correcting parameter errors typically requires significant computational effort due to the size and complexity of the parameter database. While the normalized Lagrange multiplier (NLM) method can effectively detect, identify and correct parameter errors, its computational burden could rapidly grow with increasing system size. This paper addresses this issue by proposing a multi-area parameter error identification method. Each area has its own outlier detection tool for detecting the incorrect parameters and measurements within the area. On the other hand, due to the reduced redundancy at area boundaries, parameter errors on branches incident to boundary buses may not be detected. Such errors are subsequently detected by a coordination level estimator completing the system-wide parameter detection procedure. In conclusion, performance of the developed method is demonstrated using the IEEE 118-bus and 2000-bus Texas synthetic systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Scaled Vecchia Approximation for Fast Computer-Model Emulation

Many scientific phenomena are studied using computer experiments consisting of multiple runs of a computer model while varying the input settings. Gaussian processes (GPs) are a popular tool for the analysis of computer experiments, enabling interpolation between input settings, but direct GP inference is computationally infeasible for large datasets. We adapt and extend a powerful class of GP methods from spatial statistics to enable the scalable analysis and emulation of large computer experiments. Specifically, we apply Vecchia’s ordered conditional approximation in a transformed input space, with each input scaled according to how strongly it relates to the computer-model response. The scaling is learned from the data by estimating parameters in the GP covariance function using Fisher scoring. Our methods are highly scalable, enabling estimation, joint prediction, and simulation in near-linear time in the number of model runs. In several numerical examples, our approach substantially outperformed existing methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2018

Quantifying Model Form Uncertainty of Epidemic Forecasting Models from Incidence Data

Objective We present a mathematical framework for non-parametric estimation of the force of infection, together with statistical upper and lower confidence bands. The resulting estimates allow to assess how well simpler models, such as SEIR, fit the observed time series of incidence data.IntroductionUncertainty Quantification (UQ), the ability to quantify the impact of sample-to-sample variations and model misspecification on predictions and forecasts, is a critical aspect of disease surveillance. While quantifying the impact of stochastic uncertainty in the data is well understood, quantifying the impact of model misspecification is significantly harder. For the latter, one needs a "universal model" to which more restrictive parametric models are compared too.MethodsThis talk presents a useful modeling framework for time series of incidence data from contagious diseases that enables one to identify and quantify the impact of model form uncertainty. Specifically, we propose to focus on estimating the timedependent force of infection. The latter is a universal parameters for all contagious disease model. Using a machine learning technique for estimating monotone functions, i.e., isotonic regression and its variants, one can estimate the force ofinfection without addtional assumptions. We note that most contagious disease model do satisfy this monotonicity assumption, due to a combination of factors: depletion of susceptibles, implementation of mitigation strategies, behavior change, etc. Comparing the resulting "non-parametric" estimate with parametric estimates, obtained by fitting an SEIR for example, can reveal model deficiencies and help quantify model form uncertainties.Finally, we discuss how ideas from "strict bound theory" can be used to develop upper and lower uncertainty bands for force of infection that acknowledge the intrinsic stochasticity in the data.ResultsWe demonstrate the application of the methodology to weekly Influenza Like Illness (ILI) incidence data from France andcompare the results to fitted SIR and SEIR models. This comparison can be seen as a nonparametric goodness of fit test, providing one with tools to do simple model selection.ConclusionsWe present a novel and flexible model to statistically describe the force of infection as a function of time. Comparing the fit to incidence data of that model with the fit of simpler parametric models enables the quantification of model form uncertainty and associated model selection.

Hengartner, Nicholas↗

NASA NTRS1994

A geopotential model from satellite tracking, altimeter, and surface gravity data: GEM-T3

An improved model of Earth's gravitational field, Goddard Earth Model T-3 (GEM-T3), has been developed from a combination of satellite tracking, satellite altimeter, and surface gravimetric data. GEM-T3 provides a significant improvement in the modeling of the gravity field at half wavelengths of 400 km and longer. This model, complete to degree and order 50, yields more accurate satellite orbits and an improved geoid representation than previous Goddard Earth Models. GEM-T3 uses altimeter data from GEOS 3 (1975-1976), Seasat (1978) and Geosat (1986-1987). Tracking information used in the solution includes more than 1300 arcs of data encompassing 31 different satellites. The recovery of the long-wavelength components of the solution relies mostly on highly precise satellite laser ranging (SLR) data, but also includes Tracking Network (TRANET) Doppler, optical, and satellite-to-satellite tracking acquired between the ATS 6 and GEOS 3 satellites. The main advances over GEM-T2 (beyond the inclusion of altimeter and surface gravity information which is essential for the resolution of the shorter wavelength geoid) are some improved tracking data analysis approaches and additional SLR data. Although the use of altimeter data has greatly enhanced the modeling of the ocean geoid between 65 deg N and 60 deg S latitudes in GEM-T3, the lack of accurate detailed surface gravimetry leaves poor geoid resolution over many continental regions of great tectonic interest (e.g., Himalayas, Andes). Estimates of polar motion, tracking station coordinates, and long-wavelength ocean tidal terms were also made (accounting for 6330 parameters). GEM-T3 has undergone error calibration using a technique based on subset solutions to produce reliable error estimates. The calibration is based on the condition that the expected mean square deviation of a subset gravity solution from the full set values is predicted by the solutions' error covariances. Data weights are iteratively adjusted until this condition for the error calibration is satisfied. In addition, gravity field tests were performed on strong satellite data sets withheld from the solution (thereby ensuring their independence). In these tests, the performance of the subset models on the withheld observations is compared to error projections based on their calibrated error covariances. These results demonstrate that orbit accuracy projections are reliable for new satellites which were not included in GEM-T3.

Lerch, F. J.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Fatigue behavior and modeling for additive manufactured 304L stainless steel: The effect of surface roughness

The fatigue strength of additively manufactured metallic parts in their as-built surface condition is mainly dominated by the surface roughness. Post-processing is often inevitable to reduce surface roughness effects even though post-processing diminishes the main advantage of additive manufacturing, which is net-shaped direct-to-service production. This work investigates the underlying mechanisms responsible for fatigue failure of additively manufactured 304L stainless steel parts in as-built and machined/polished surface conditions. Both strain- and force-controlled, fully reversed fatigue tests were conducted to gain a comprehensive understanding of surface roughness effects on fatigue behavior. The sensitivity to surface roughness is shown to be dependent on the control mode, with stress-based fatigue tests showing greater sensitivity than strain-based fatigue tests. Moreover, the fatigue life estimation for as-built specimens was performed based on surface roughness parameters as well as the fatigue properties of the specimens in machined/polished surface condition of the material without using any fatigue data of specimens in as-built surface condition. Accordingly, the effect of surface roughness on the fatigue behavior could be estimated reasonably well in both strain-life and stress-life approaches.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS1993

Wind field model-based estimation of Seasat scatterometer winds

A model-based approach to estimating near-surface wind fields over the ocean from Seasat scatterometer (SASS) measurements is presented. The approach is a direct assimilation technique in which wind field model parameters are estimated directly from the scatterometer measurements of the radar backscatter of the ocean's surface using maximum likelihood principles. The wind field estimate is then computed from the estimated model parameters. The wind field model used in this approach is based on geostrophic approximation and on simplistic assumptions about the wind field vorticity and divergence but includes ageostrophic winds. Nine days of SASS data were processed to obtain unique wind estimates. Comparisons in performance to the traditional two-step (point-wise wind retrieval followed by ambiguity removal) wind estimate method and the model-based method are provided using both simulated radar backscatter measurements and actual SASS measurements. In the latter case the results are compared to wind fields determined using subjective ambiguity removal. While the traditional approach results in missing measurements and reduced effective swath width due to fore/aft beam cell coregistration problems, the model-based approach uses all available measurements to increase the effective swath width and to reduce data gaps. The results reveal that the model-based wind estimates have accuracy comparable to traditionally estimated winds with less 'noise' in the directional estimates, particularly at low wind speeds.

Long, David G.↗

NASA NTRS1995

The second-moment climatology of the GATE rain rate data

The first part of this paper presents the description of the GARP (Global Atmospheric Research Program) Atlantic Tropical Experiment (GATE) 1 rain-rate data and its two-dimensional spectral and correlation characteristics, which has made it possible to accomplish the following: to show the concentration of a significant power along the frequency axis in the spatiotemporal spectra; to detect a diurnal cycle (which has a range of variation of about 3.4-5.4 mm/n) as one of the sources of bias in the rain statistics of satellite data; to study the distinction between the north-south and east-west transport of spatial rain-rate field and character of its anisotropy; to evaluate the scales of the distinction between second-moment estimates associated with ground and satellite samples; and to determine the appropriate spatial and temporal scales of simple linear stochastic models fitted to averaged rain-rate fields. The second part of this paper is devoted to an analysis of the diffusion of the rain rate by establishing a relationship between the parameters of the multivariate autoregressive model and the coefficients of a diffusion equation. This analysis led to the use of rain data to estimate the rain advection velocity as well as other coefficients of the diffusion equation of the corresponding field. The results obtained can be used for comparison with corresponding estimates of other sources of data (satellite, Tropical Oceans Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean - Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA, COARE) or simulated by physical models), for generating multiple samples of any size, for solving the inverse problems of some of the hydrodynamic equations, and in some other areas of rain data analysis and modeling.

Polyak, Ilya↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

CONUS and Global Carbon Consumption Database for Wildland Fire

Fire plays a significant role on both national and global scales, profoundly impacting landscapes shaped by human activity as well as wildlands. Even though fire can be devastating, wildland fire is a natural and integral force on our landscapes. Fires can also serve to reduce fuels to mitigate wildfire risk and maintain healthy ecosystem functions. However, the smoke produced by fires, regardless of their size or purpose, can pose adverse effects on human health when inhaled downwind. Understanding the influence of smoke on air quality and human well-being necessitates the quantification of emissions that fires release into the atmosphere. In response to this need, we have developed a carbon consumption database for the Continental United States (CONUS) and are developing a global carbon consumption database, both of which are directly link to distinct fuels within various fire danger categories. Fuel Characteristic Classification System (FCCS) fuels are used to parameterize biomass, and consumption is broken down into five Fire Danger categories (Low, Moderate, High, Very High, Extreme), for both ‘new’ and ‘residual’ burning scenarios. Residual burned area is defined as burning in areas that have recently burned. We implemented the FCCS 30-meter CONUS fuelbed dataset during the 2019 Fire Influence on Regional to Global Environments and Air Quality (FIREX-AQ) campaign to estimate daily carbon emissions. Our emissions estimates were rigorously compared against in-situ measurements of CO2, CO, and black carbon aerosols, revealing a robust agreement between the two datasets. The 300-meter global database builds upon the foundations of the Pettinari, M. Lucrecia (2015) Global Fuelbed database, a global fuel map with standardized FCCS biomass parameters. These products can serve as valuable tools when used in conjunction with burned area data to rapidly and accurately estimate carbon consumed and released into the atmosphere.

FCCS↗