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Photometric redshifts probability density estimation from recurrent neural networks in the DECam local volume exploration survey data release 2

Photometric wide-field surveys are imaging the sky in unprecedented detail. These surveys face a significant challenge in efficiently estimating galactic photometric redshifts while accurately quantifying associated uncertainties. In this work, we address this challenge by exploring the estimation of Probability Density Functions (PDFs) for the photometric redshifts of galaxies across a vast area of 17,000 square degrees, encompassing objects with a median 5 σ point-source depth of g = 24.3, r = 23 . 9 , i = 23.5, and z = 22.8 mag. Our approach uses deep learning, specifically integrating a Recurrent Neural Network architecture with a Mixture Density Network, to leverage magnitudes and colors as input features for constructing photometric redshift PDFs across the whole DECam Local Volume Exploration (DELVE) survey sky footprint. Subsequently, we rigorously evaluate the reliability and robustness of our estimation methodology, gauging its performance against other well-established machine learning methods to ensure the quality of our redshift estimations. Our best results constrain photometric redshifts with the bias of − 0 . 0013 , a scatter of 0.0293, and an outlier fraction of 5.1%. These point estimates are accompanied by well-calibrated PDFs evaluated using diagnostic tools such as Probability Integral Transform and Odds distribution. We also address the problem of the accessibility of PDFs in terms of disk space storage and the time demand required to generate their corresponding parameters.We present a novel Autoencoder model that reduces the size of PDF parameter arrays to one-sixth of their original length, significantly decreasing the time required for PDF generation to one-eighth of the time needed when generating PDFs directly from the magnitudes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Small-Scale Spatial Fluctuations in the Soft X-Ray Background

In order to isolate the diffuse extragalactic component of the soft X-ray background, we have used a combination of ROSAT All-Sky Survey and IRAS 100 micron data to separate the soft X-ray background into five components. We find a Local Hot Bubble similar to that described by Snowden et al (1998). We make a first calculation of the contribution by unresolved Galactic stars to the diffuse background. We constrain the normalization of the Extragalactic Power Law (the contribution of the unresolved extragalactic point sources such as AGN, QSO'S, and normal galaxies) to 9.5 +/- 0.9 keV/(sq cm s sr keV), assuming a power-law index of 1.46. We show that the remaining emission, which is some combination of Galactic halo emission and the putative diffuse extragalactic emission, must be composed of at least two components which we have characterized by thermal spectra. The softer component has log T - 6.08 and a patchy distribution; thus it is most probably part of the Galactic halo. The harder component has log T - 6.46 and is nearly isotropic; some portion may be due to the Galactic halo and some portion may be due to the diffuse extragalactic emission. The maximum upper limit to the strength of the emission by the diffuse extragalactic component is the total of the hard component, approx. 7.4 +/- 1.0 keV/(sq cm s sr keV) in the 3/4 keV band. We have made the first direct measure of the fluctuations due to the diffuse extragalactic emission in the 3/4 keV band. Physical arguments suggest that small angular scale (approx. 10') fluctuations in the Local Hot Bubble or the Galactic halo will have very short dissipation times (about 10(exp 5) years). Therefore, the fluctuation spectrum of the soft X-ray background should measure the distribution of the diffuse extragalactic emission. Using mosaics of deep, overlapping PSPC pointings, we find an autocorrelation function value of approx. 0.0025 for 10' < theta < 20', and a value consistent with zero on larger scales. Measurement of the fluctuations with a delta I/I method produces consistent results.

Kuntz, K. D.↗

Estimated Accuracy of Three Common Trajectory Statistical Methods

Three well-known trajectory statistical methods (TSMs), namely concentration field (CF), concentration weighted trajectory (CWT), and potential source contribution function (PSCF) methods were tested using known sources and artificially generated data sets to determine the ability of TSMs to reproduce spatial distribution of the sources. In the works by other authors, the accuracy of the trajectory statistical methods was estimated for particular species and at specified receptor locations. We have obtained a more general statistical estimation of the accuracy of source reconstruction and have found optimum conditions to reconstruct source distributions of atmospheric trace substances. Only virtual pollutants of the primary type were considered. In real world experiments, TSMs are intended for application to a priori unknown sources. Therefore, the accuracy of TSMs has to be tested with all possible spatial distributions of sources. An ensemble of geographical distributions of virtual sources was generated. Spearman s rank order correlation coefficient between spatial distributions of the known virtual and the reconstructed sources was taken to be a quantitative measure of the accuracy. Statistical estimates of the mean correlation coefficient and a range of the most probable values of correlation coefficients were obtained. All the TSMs that were considered here showed similar close results. The maximum of the ratio of the mean correlation to the width of the correlation interval containing the most probable correlation values determines the optimum conditions for reconstruction. An optimal geographical domain roughly coincides with the area supplying most of the substance to the receptor. The optimal domain s size is dependent on the substance decay time. Under optimum reconstruction conditions, the mean correlation coefficients can reach 0.70 0.75. The boundaries of the interval with the most probable correlation values are 0.6 0.9 for the decay time of 240 h and 0.5 0.95 for the decay time of 12 h. The best results of source reconstruction can be expected for the trace substances with a decay time on the order of several days. Although the methods considered in this paper do not guarantee high accuracy they are computationally simple and fast. Using the TSMs in optimum conditions and taking into account the range of uncertainties, one can obtain a first hint on potential source areas.

Kabashnikov, Vitaliy P.↗

Probabilistic Hazard Assessment for Tornadoes, Straight-Line Wind, and Extreme Precipitation at the Savannah River Site

Recent data sets for three meteorological phenomena with the potential to inflict damage on SRS facilities – tornadoes, straight-line winds, and heavy precipitation – are analyzed using appropriate statistical techniques to estimate the occurrence probabilities for these events in the future. Summaries of the results for DOE-mandated return periods and comparisons to similar calculations performed in 2013 by Werth et al. (W2013) are given. Using tornado statistics for i) the combined states of Georgia and South Carolina, and ii) a 2⁰ square area surrounding SRS, we calculated the probability per year of any location at SRS being struck by a tornado (the ‘strike’ probability) and the probability that any point will experience winds above set thresholds. The strike probability was calculated to be 7.04E-4 (1 chance in 1420) per year and tornadic wind speeds for DOE mandated return periods of 50,000 years (corresponding to wind design category 3 (WDC-3), and 125,000 years (meeting WDC-4) (USDOE, 2016) were estimated to be 132 mph and 147 mph, respectively. By contrast, default tornado wind speeds taken from ANSI/ANS-2.3-2011 are somewhat higher: 161 mph for return periods of 50,000 years and 173 mph every 125,000 years (ANS, 2011). Although the ANS and the SRS evaluation used the same basic model (Ramsdell and Rishel, 2007), the region defined in ANS 2.3 that encompasses the SRS also includes areas of the Great Plains and lower Midwest, regions with much higher occurrence frequencies of strong tornadoes. The SRS straight-line wind values associated with various return periods were calculated by fitting existing wind data to a GEV1 distribution and extrapolating the values for any return period from the tail of that function. For the DOE mandated return periods, we expect straight-line winds of 117 mph every 2500 years (the required WDC-3 standard) and 125 mph every 6250 years (WDC-4) at any point within the SRS. These values are similar to those from the ANS-2.3-2011 report, which has wind speeds of 125mph and 133 mph for return periods of 2500 years and 6250 years, respectively. For extreme precipitation, we compared the fits of two different theoretical extreme-value distributions and applied the one that fit the data best for each of several accumulation periods. The DOE mandated 6-hr accumulated rainfall for return periods of 10,000 years (corresponding to precipitation design category 3 (PDC-3) and 25,000 years (PDC-4) were estimated as 9.1 inches and 10.1 inches, respectively. For the 24-hr rainfall return periods of 10,000 years and 25,000 years, total rainfall estimates were 12.02 inches and 13.17 inches, respectively, higher than comparable values provided in the W2013 report.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

​​Hydrogen Transportation and Distributed Energy Systems Seismic Risk Assessment for Cascadia Subduction Zone Airport Facilities​

Portland International Airport in Oregon is exploring operating a fleet of 28 fuel cell electric buses to support airport operations and possibly provide backup power during outages. In this report, we evaluate the risk of hydrogen deployment at an airport considering the potential for seismic activity. We present a seismic risk assessment for pressurized piping for a generic hydrogen refueling station at the airport. Only pressurized piping was considered in the risk analysis because of its vulnerability and availability of fragility information unlike the other components. Seismic capacity of other components should be included as more information becomes available. To characterize the seismic hazard, we considered the initiating event frequency of a Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake event based on data from the literature. Seismic stressors that translate to the site from an earthquake event are expressed as peak ground acceleration. Site disturbance is characterized as a function of soil conditions, represented by different shear wave velocity values, which affect how seismic waves propagate and impact structures. Pipe fragility curves as a function of seismic capacity were used to correlate ground acceleration and failure probability. These fragility characteristics were combined with site-specific soil conditions to calculate the probability of pipe rupture during a seismic event. It should be noted that multiple simultaneous failures due to an earthquake event as a common cause are not considered. Some epistemic uncertainties such as self-exciting shocks, aftershocks, and the time variant nature of the ground motion are not considered either.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Herschel Observations of the Debris Disc Around HIP 92043

Context: Typical debris discs are composed of particles ranging from several micron sized dust grains to kilometer-sized asteroidal bodies, and their infrared emission peaks at wavelengths 60-100 microns. Recent Herschel DUNES (Dust Around Nearby Stars) observations have identified several debris discs around nearby Sun-like stars (F, G and K spectral type) with significant excess emission only at 160 microns. Aims: We observed HIP 92043 (110 Her, HD 173667) at far-infrared and sub-millimetre wavelengths with Herschel PACS (Photodetector Array Camera and Spectrometer) and SPIRE (Spectral and Photometric Imaging Receiver).Identification of the presence of excess emission from HIP 92043 and the origin and physical properties of any excess was undertaken through analysis of its spectral energy distribution (SED) and the PACS images. Methods: The PACS and SPIRE images were produced using the HIPE (Herschel Interactive Processing Environment) photProject map maker routine. Fluxes were measured using aperture photometry. A stellar photosphere model was scaled to optical and near infrared photometry and subtracted from the far-infared and sub-mm fluxes to determine the presence of excess emission. Source radial profiles were fitted using a 2D Gaussian and compared to a PSF (Point Spread Function) model based on Herschel observations of alpha Boo to check for extended emission. Results: Clear excess emission from HIP 92043 was observed at 70 and 100 microns. Marginal excess was observed at 160 and 250 microns.Analysis of the images reveals that the source is extended at 160 microns. A fit to the source SED is inconsistent with a photosphere and single temperature black body. Conclusions: The excess emission from HIP 92043 is consistent with the presence of an unresolved circumstellar debris disc at 70and 100 microns, with low probability of background contamination. The extended 160 micron emission may be interpreted as an additional cold component to the debris disc or as the result of background contamination along the line of sight. The nature of the 160 micron excess cannot be determined absolutely from the available data, but we favour a debris disc interpretation, drawing parallels with previously identified cold disc sources in the DUNES sample.

debris discs↗

The latitudinal distribution of magnetic holes in the solar wind

A large number of magnetic holes have been found in the Ulysses data during its cruise in the ecliptic. They are interpreted as convecting structures, probably caused by the mirror instability which exists in high beta plasmas with anisotropic temperatures. The characteristics of the holes reflect the solar wind condition of the region in which the holes are formed, and the point of observation may be far removed from where the instability occurs. A preliminary survey appears to indicate that the number of holes has no significant radial dependence. However, the number of holes does appear to increase with increasing heliographic latitude. Yet the large scale solar wind structures with their compression regions disappeared at approximately 57 deg south latitude. Thus any causal relationship between the holes and large scale solar wind structures is questionable. The temperature anisotropy and high beta required by the mirror instability must be generated by other mechanisms. In order to tie the magnetic holes and the mirror instability to their cause, the evolution of their characteristics with heliocentric distance and latitude needs to be investigated. With the progression of Ulysses around the sun a survey will be conducted to ascertain the characteristics of the magnetic holes as a function of heliographic latitude and heliocentric distance. A comparison of the results with the solar wind conditions may lead to the identification of the magnetic hole generating mechanism(s).

Winterhalter, D.↗

Osiris-REx Spacecraft Current Status and Forward Plans

The NASA New Frontiers OSIRIS-REx spacecraft executed a flawless launch on September 8, 2016 to begin its 23-month journey to near-Earth asteroid (101955). The primary objective of the OSIRIS-REx mission is to collect and return to Earth a pristine sample of regolith from the asteroid surface. The sampling event will occur after a two-year period of remote sensing that will ensure a high probability of successful sampling of a region on the asteroid surface having high science value and within well-defined geological context. The OSIRIS-REx instrument payload includes three high-resolution cameras (OCAMS), a visible and near-infrared spectrometer (OVIRS), a thermal imaging spectrometer (OTES), an X-ray imaging spectrometer (REXIS), and a laser altimeter (OLA). As the spacecraft follows its nominal outbound-cruise trajectory, the propulsion, power, communications, and science instruments have undergone basic functional tests, with no major issues. Outbound cruise science investigations include a search for Earth Trojan asteroids as the spacecraft approaches the Sun-Earth L4 Lagrangian point in February 2017. Additional instrument checkouts and calibrations will be carried out during the Earth gravity assist maneuver in September 2017. During the Earth-moon flyby, visual and spectral images will be acquired to validate instrument command sequences planned for Bennu remote sensing. The asteroid Bennu remote sensing campaign will yield high resolution maps of the temperature and thermal inertia, distributions of major minerals and concentrations of organic matter across the asteroid surface. A high resolution 3d shape model including local surface slopes and a high-resolution gravity field will also be determined. Together, these data will be used to generate four separate maps that will be used to select the sampling site(s). The Safety map will identify hazardous and safe operational regions on the asteroid surface. The Deliverability map will quantify the accuracy with which the navigation team can deliver the spacecraft to and from specific sites on the asteroid surface. The Sampleability map quantifies the regolith properties, providing an estimation of how much material would be sampled at different points on the surface. The final Science Value map synthesizes the chemical, mineralogical, and geological, observations to identify the areas of the asteroid surface with the highest science value. Here, priority is given to organic, water-rich regions that have been minimally altered by surface processes. Asteroid surface samples will be acquired with a touch-and-go sample acquisition system (TAGSAM) that uses high purity pressurized N2 gas to mobilize regolith into a stainless steel canister. Although the mission requirement is to collect at least 60 g of material, tests of the TAGSAM routinely exceeded 300 g of simulant in micro-gravity tests. After acquiring the sample, the spacecraft will depart Bennu in 2021 to begin its return journey, with the sample return capsule landing at the Utah Test and Training Range on September 23, 2023. The OSIRIS-REx science team will carry out a series of detailed chemical, mineralogical, isotopic, and spectral studies that will be used to determine the origin and history of Bennu and to relate high spatial resolution sample studies to the global geological context from remote sensing. The outline of the sample analysis plan is described in a companion abstract.

Messenger, Scott↗

Final state radiation from high and ultrahigh energy neutrino interactions

Charged leptons produced by high-energy and ultrahigh-energy neutrinos have a substantial probability of emitting prompt internal bremsstrahlung ν ℓ + N → ℓ + X + γ . This can have important consequences for neutrino detection. We discuss observable consequences at high- and ultrahigh-energy neutrino telescopes and the Large Hadron Collider’s (LHC’s) Forward Physics Facility. Logarithmic enhancements can be substantial (e.g., ∼ 20 % ) when either the charged lepton’s energy or the rest of the cascade is measured. We comment on final state radiation’s impacts on measuring the inelasticity distribution, ν / ν ¯ flux ratio, throughgoing muons, and double-bang signatures for high-energy neutrino observation. Furthermore, for ultrahigh-energy neutrino observation, we find that final state radiation increases the overall detectable energy by as much as 20%, affects flavor measurements, and decreases the energy of both Earth-emergent tau leptons and regenerated tau neutrinos. Many of these have significant impacts on measuring neutrino fluxes and spectra. Finally, for the LHC’s Forward Physics Facility, we find that final state radiation will impact future extractions of strange quark parton distribution functions. Final state radiation should be included in future analyses at neutrino telescopes and the Forward Physics Facility. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

eDNAjoint: An R package for interpreting paired or semi‐paired environmental DNA and traditional survey data in a Bayesian framework

Abstract Environmental DNA (eDNA) sampling is increasingly used in surveys of species distribution as a potentially sensitive and efficient monitoring method. Yet access to modelling tools designed specifically for interpreting this new data type lags behind its ubiquity. While occupancy modelling software has dominated the analytical landscape for eDNA data analysis of single species, this type of model may not always be the most appropriate. The rate of eDNA detection often corresponds to species density, rather than just occupancy, and researchers often have access to observations from non‐genetic sampling methods at the same sites. To provide users access to a modelling framework designed to maximize the use of all available data, we developed an R package, eDNAjoint . The package provides an easy‐to‐use interface for fitting a ‘joint’ model that integrates data from paired or semi‐paired eDNA and traditional surveys in a Bayesian framework. The model can be used to estimate parameters like the probability of a false positive eDNA detection and mean catch rate at a site, and the package allows access to multiple model variations and Bayesian prior customization. Additional functionality can be used for model selection, summarising posteriors and comparing the relative sensitivities of the two survey methods. We demonstrate the use of eDNAjoint by fitting a variation of the model with site‐level covariates that scale the sensitivity of eDNA sampling relative to traditional sampling. The example workflow uses binary eDNA and seine count data for the endangered tidewater goby ( Eucyclogobius newberryi ) from a study by Schmelzle and Kinziger (2016). This use case includes a prior sensitivity analysis and an evaluation of the relationship between detection rates and environmental variables. eDNAjoint has the potential to greatly increase the range of users who will be able to rigorously analyse eDNA and traditional survey data in a Bayesian framework, understand if and how eDNA can improve monitoring practices, and gain confidence in the interpretability of eDNA data.

Keller, Abigail G. [Department of Environment Scie↗

Global and regional/seasonal color mosaics of Mars

Four regional mosaics of Mars acquired during different seasons, along with their composite as a single global mosaic, have been completed in two colors (red and violet) at scales of 1/16 and 1/64 degrees/pixel. These mosaics were put together from a set of 51 separate mosaics, each acquired from a single Viking orbiter spacecraft orbital revolution. Special techniques were developed and applied to suppress large variations between mosaics introcued by highly variable, optically thin, condensate hazes. The techniques utilize a combination of the spatial characteristics of the hazes (generally broad, low-frequency) along with their modulation of the reginal color ratios (strongly enhancing the violet/red ratios). Photometric-function normalization was applied following the haze removal. Most of the single-orbit mosaics consist of red and violet or red, green, and violet filters, but a few mosaics with only red-filter data were included to fill gaps in global coverage at high northern latitudes. Global coverage is approximately 99 percent complete in red-filter mosaics and approximately 95 percent and approximately 60 percent complete in corresponding violet- and green-filter mosaics, respectively. All of the mosaics are geometrically tied to the 1/256 deg per pixel Mars Digital Image Map (MDIM), which is available on Compact Disk (CD), and which will be used as the base map for Mars Observer data sets. Early in 1993, the single-orbit color mosaics will be distributed to the science community in a six-volume set of CDs. Perhaps the most scientifically interesting parts of this dataset are the overlap regions, which show significant temporal variations in surface and atmospheric features. Surface changes can be categorized as (1) changes that probably occurred during the great dust storms of 1977; (2) changes that occurred soon after 1977 storms due to removal of redistribution of recently deposited dust; (3) changes in the northern lowlands that probably occurred during the dusty southern summer of 1979 (when no great dust storm occurred); and (4) changes associated with strong slope winds in the Tharsis and Elysium regions.

Mcewen, Alfred S.↗

A new model for Mars atmospheric dust based upon analysis of ultraviolet through infrared observations from Mariner 9, Viking, and Phobos

We propose key modifications to the Toon et al. (1977) model of the particle size distribution and composition of Mars atmospheric dust, based on a variety of spacecraft and wavelength observations of the dust. A much broader (r(sub eff)variance-0.8 micron), smaller particle size (r(sub mode)-0.02 microns) distribution coupled with a "palagonite-like" composition is argued to fit the complete ultraviolet-to-30-micron absorption properties of the dust better than the montmorillonite-basalt r(sub eff)variance= 0.4 micron, r(sub mode)= 0.40 micron dust model of Toon et al. Mariner 9 (infrared interferometer spectrometer) IRIS spectra of high atmospheric dust opacities during the 1971 - 1972 Mars global dust storm are analyzed in terms of the Toon et al. dust model, and a Hawaiian palagonite sample with two different size distribution models incorporating smaller dust particle sizes. Viking Infrared Thermal Mapper (IRTM) emission-phase-function (EPF) observations at 9 microns are analyzed to retrieve 9-micron dust opacities coincident with solar band dust opacities obtained from the same EPF sequences. These EPF dust opacities provide an independent measurement of the visible/9-microns extinction opacity ratio (> or equal to 2) for Mars atmospheric dust, which is consistent with a previous measurement by Martin (1986). Model values for the visible/9-microns opacity ratio and the ultraviolet and visible single-scattering albedos are calculated for the palagonite model with the smaller particle size distributions and compared to the same properties for the Toon et al. model of dust. The montmorillonite model of the dust is found to fit the detailed shape of the dust 9-micron absorption well. However, it predicts structured, deep absorptions at 20 microns which are not observed and requires a separate ultraviolet-visible absorbing component to match the observed behavior of the dust in this wavelength region. The modeled palagonite does not match the 8- to 9-micron absorption presented by the dust in the IRIS spectra, probably due to its low SiO2 content (31%). However, it does provide consistent levels of ultraviolet/visible absorption, 9- to 12-micron absorption, and a lack of structured absorption at 20 microns. The ratios of dust extinction opacities at visible, 9 microns, and 30 microns are strongly affected by the dust particle size distribution. The Toon et al. dust size distribution (r(sub mode)= 0.40, r(sub eff)variance= 0.4 microns, r(sub cw mu)= 2.7 microns) predicts the correct ratio of the 9- to 30-micron opacity, but underpredicts the visible/9-micron opacity ratio considerably (1 versus > or equal to 2). A similar particle distribution width with smaller particle sizes (r(sub mode)= 0.17, r(sub eff)variance= 0.4 microns, r(sub cw mu)=1.2 microns) will fit the observed visible/9-micron opacity ratio, but overpredicts the observed 9-micron/30-micron opacity ratio. A smaller and much broader particle size distribution (r(sub mode)= 0.02, r(sub eff)variance= 0.8 microns, r(sub cw mu)= 1.8 microns) can fit both dust opacity ratios. Overall, the nanocrystalline structure of palagonite coupled with a smaller, broader distribution of dust particle sizes provides a more consistent fit than the Toon et al. model of the dust to the IRIS spectra, the observed visible/9-micron dust opacity ratio, the Phobos occultation measurements of dust particle sizes, and the weakness of surface near IR absorptions expected for clay minerals.

Clancy, R. T.↗

A new model for Mars atmospheric dust based upon analysis of ultraviolet through infrared observations from Mariner 9, Viking, and Phobos

We propose key modifications to the Toon et al. (1977) model of the particle size distribution and composition of Mars atmospheric dust, based on a variety of spacecraft and wavelength observations of the dust. A much broader (r(sub eff) variance approximately 0.8 micrometers), smaller particle size (r(sub mode) approximately 0.02 micrometers) distribution coupled with a 'palagonite-like' composition is argued to fit the complete ultraviolet-to-30-micrometer absorption properties of the dust better than the montmorillonite-basalt, r(sub eff) variance = 0.4 micrometers, r(sub mode) = 0.40 dust model of Toon et al. Mariner 9 (infrared interferometer spectrometer) IRIS spectra of high atmospheric dust opacities during the 1971-1972 Mars global dust storm are analyzed in terms of the Toon et al. dust model, and a Hawaiian palagonite sample (Rousch et al., 1991) with two different size distribution models incorporating smaller dust particle sizes. Viking Infrared Thermal Mapper (IRTM) emmission-phase-function (EPF) observations at 9 micrometers are analyzed to retrieve 9-micrometer dust opacities coincident with solar band dust opacities obtained from the same EPF sequences (Clancy and Lee, 1991). These EPF dust opacities provide an independent measurement of the visible/9-micrometer extinction opacity ratio (greater than or = 2) for Mars atmospheric dust, which is consistent with a previous measurement by Martin (1986). Model values for the visible/9-micrometer opacity ratio and the ultraviolet and visible single-scattering albedos are calculated for the palagonite model with the smaller particle size distributions compared to the same properties for the Toon et al. model of dust. The montmorillonite model of the dust is found to fit the detailed shape of the dust 9-micrometer absorption well. However, it predicts structured, deep aborptions at 20 micrometers which are not observed and requires a separate ultraviolet-visible absorbing component to match the observed behavior of the dust in this wavelength region. The modeled palagonite does not match the 8-to 9-micrometer absorption presented by the dust in the IRIS spectra, probably due to its low SiO2 content (31%). However, it does provide consistent levels of ultraviolet/visible absorption, 9-to 12-micrometer absorption, and a lack of structured absorption at 20 micrometers. The ratios of dust extinction opacities at visible, 9 micrometers, and 30 micrometers are strongly affected by the dust particle size distribution. The Toon et al. dust size distribution (r(sub mode) = 0.40,r(sub eff) variance = 0.4 micrometers, r(sub cwmu) = 2.7 micrometers) predicts the correct ratio of the 9- to 30-micrometer opacity, but underpredicts the visible/9-micrometer opacity ratio considerably (1 versus greater than or = 2). A similar particle distribution width with smaller particle sizes (r(sub mode) = 0.17, r(sub eff) variance = 0.4 micrometers, r(sub cwmu) = 1.2 micrometers) will fit the observed visible/9-micrometer opacity ratio, but overpredicts the observed 9-micrometer/30-micrometer opacity ratio. A smaller and much broader particle size distribution (r(sub mode) = 0.002, r(sub eff) variance = 0.8 micrometers, r(sub cwmu) = 1.8 micrometers) can fit both dust opacity ratios. Overall, the nanocrystalline structure of palagonite coupled with a smaller, broader distribution of dust particle sizes provides a more consistent fit than the Toon et al. model of the dust to the IRIS spectra, the observed visible/9-micrometer dust opacity ratio, the Phobos occulation measurements of the dust particle sizes (Chassefiere et al., 1992), and the weakness of surface near IR absorptions expected for clay minerals (Clark, 1992; Bell and Crisp, 1993).

Clancy, R. T.↗

Research Needs in Electrostatics for Lunar and Mars Space Missions

The new space exploratory vision announced by President Bush on January 14, 2004, initiated new activities at the National Science and Space Administration (NASA) for human space missions to further explore our solar system. NASA is undertaking Lunar exploration to support sustained human and robotic exploration of Mars and beyond. A series of robotic missions to the Moon by 2008 to prepare for human exploration as early as 2015 but no later than 2020 are anticipated. In a similar way, missions to the Moon and Mars are being planned in Europe, Japan and Russia. These space missions will require international participation to solve problems in a number of important technological areas where research is needed, including biomedical risk mitigation as well as life support and habitability on the surface of Mars. Mitigation of dust hazards is one of the most important problems to be resolved for both Lunar and Mars missions. Both Lunar and Martian regolith are unique materials and completely different from the terrestrial soils that we are exposed to on earth. The total absence of water and an atmosphere on the moon and the formation of soil and fine dust by micrometeorite impacts over billions of years resulted in a layer of soil with unique properties. The soil is primarily basaltic in composition with a high glass concentration. The depth of the soil layer varies from a few meters in the mare areas (dark areas on the Lunar near side) to tens of meters in the highland areas (the lighter mountainous areas) and the particle size distribution of this dust layer varies widely with a major mass fraction less than 10 micrometer in diameter. The hard soil from the moon which has been extensively studied by several researchers showed clearly unique properties of Lunar soil. Apollo astronauts became aware of the potentially serious threat to crew health and mission hardware that can be caused by the lunar dust. As reported by McKay and Carrier the mass fraction of the lunar dust with particle diameter smaller than 20p.m probably represents up to 30% of the total mass of regolith. Apollo astronaut Dr. Harrison Schmidt reported that these fine dust particles were clinging to the Extra Vehicular Activity (EVA) suits and to the visors and were limiting the activity on the surface of the moon. The dust particles that were transported with the EVA suits into the lunar module floated throughout the cabin. Crews inhaled the dust particles and noted that they smelled like gun smoke, caused a chocking sensation in the throat and eye irritation. In addition,, some of the mechanical systems were not functioning well because of the dust deposition. It appeared that the dust particles are highly charged electrostatically and Dr. Schmidt noted that future successful Lunar missions will require appropriate dust mitigation technology for protecting astronauts from inhaling toxic particles and mission's life supporting equipment from contamination with the dust particles.

Calle, Carlos I.↗

Angular momentum regulation in low-mass young stars surrounded by accretion disks

From study of a sample of 34 T Tauri stars with photometrically derived rotation periods and spectral types later than KS, we find that the observed periods appear to be related to the presence or absence of an accretion disk. Those stars which we infer to be surrounded by accretion disks have rotation periods P(rot) over 4 days with a most probable P(rot) of about 8.5 days, while those stars which lack accretion disk signatures cover a wide range of P(rot) from 1.5 to 16 days, including a significant number of objects with P(rot) less than 4 days. This suggests the possibility that the 'initial' angular momentum of a star is not established until it dissipates its circumstellar accretion disk. During the disk accretion phase, the stellar angular velocity appears to be regulated at a low value, countering the tendency of the star to spin up both from contraction toward the main sequence and from the accretion of inner disk material of high specific angular momentum. When the accretion disk is dissipated, this regulation mechanism will cease to function. At this point, the star is no longer maintained at a low angular velocity, but is 'free' to conserve its angular momentum, and thus to increase its angular velocity in response to contraction and changes in moment of inertia. This hypothesis, combined with a spread in disk dispersal time scales, provides a context for explaining the observed distribution of stellar rotational velocities for stars on the ZAMS in young clusters.

Edwards, Suzan↗

A Self-Contained Mapping Closure Approximation for Scalar Mixing

Scalar turbulence exhibits interplays of coherent structures and random fluctuations over a broad range of spatial and temporal scales. This feature necessitates a probabilistic description of the scalar dynamics, which can be achieved comprehensively by using probability density functions (PDFs). Therefore, the challenge is to obtain the scalar PDFs (Lundgren 1967; Dopazo 1979). Generally, the evolution of a scalar is governed by three dynamical processes: advection, diffusion and reaction. In a PDF approach (Pope 1985), the advection and reaction can be treated exactly but the effect of molecular diffusion has to be modeled. It has been shown (Pope 1985) that the effect of molecular diffusion can be expressed as conditional dissipation rates or conditional diffusions. The currently used models for the conditional dissipation rates and conditional diffusions (Pope 1991) have resisted deduction from the fundamental equations and are unable to yield satisfactory results for the basic test cases of decaying scalars in isotropic turbulence, although they have achieved some success in a variety of individual cases. The recently developed mapping closure approach (Pope 1991; Chen, Chen & Kraichnan 1989; Kraichnan 1990; Klimenko & Pope 2003) provides a deductive method for conditional dissipation rates and conditional di usions, and the models obtained can successfully describe the shape relaxation of the scalar PDF from an initial double delta distribution to a Gaussian one. However, the mapping closure approach is not able to provide the rate at which the scalar evolves. The evolution rate has to be modeled. Therefore, the mapping closure approach is not closed. In this letter, we will address this problem.

He, Guo-Wei↗

Quantification of Uncertainty and Risk Sensitivity for Safety of Emerging Operations

The growing need to develop and deploy small unmanned aerial vehicles (sUAVs) for various applications in the airspace necessitates reliable tools to accurately predict the flight trajectories of the sUAVs. The knowledge of the predicted trajectories help decision makers anticipate potential conflict, assess the risk, and take appropriate risk mitigation actions. In addition, uncertainties in vehicle models, weather, and controller action further highlights the need for reliable prediction tools. In this project, the application of mixed sparse grid-based quadrature and generalized polynomial chaos(gPC) expansion method for uncertainty quantification and collision assessment in air traffic consisting of fixed-wing small unmanned aerial vehicles (sUAV) was studied. From the results obtained, it can be concluded that this provides a reliable framework to carry out quantitative conflict assessment in an unmanned air traffic, which when employed, can improve the functionalities of the unmanned traffic management system. It was observed that the results from the gPC expansion framework developed in the project can be utilized to conduct rapid probabilistic collision assessment for near real-time unmanned traffic management in the airspace. From the vehicle models, position updates, and wind-field data, a priori gPC based 3-σcon-fidence ellipses can provide estimates of potential conflict at some future instants. The computational costs scaled linearly when the uncertain inputs were fewer. Further, the largest allowable distribution of para-metric uncertainties that leads to the smallest risk of collision in traffic of small unmanned aerial vehicles could be calculated. The time of closest approach between two sUAVs can be established paving way for development of proactive mitigation strategies. The separation between the sUAVs was found to be most significantly affected by uncertainties in the maximum available thrusts, zero-lift drag coefficients, and wing planform areas of the sUAVs. The study of uncertain wind-fields indicated that a heterogeneous traffic mix resulted in an increased probability of conflict. Increased measurement update rate reduced the uncertain-ties in the trajectories of the vehicles, further reducing the probability of conflict but rapid updates of all vehicles in the airspace poses a stringent communication limitation. The gPC framework also provided the means to analyze vehicle impact (crash region) due to loss of control resulting from actuator failure in sUAS traffic, essentially to predict impact and crash zones for representative vehicles. The predicted regions when compared with non-participant density, provides a means to develop an early mitigation strategy, should the sUAV detect an imminent actuator failure.

Rajnish Bhusal↗

Characterization and detection of Anopheles vestitipennis and Anopheles punctimacula (Diptera: Culicidae) larval habitats in Belize with field survey and SPOT satellite imagery

Surveys of larval habitats of Anopheles vestitipennis and Anopheles punctimacula were conducted in Belize, Central America. Habitat analysis and classification resulted in delineation of eight habitat types defined by dominant life forms and hydrology. Percent cover of tall dense macrophytes, shrubs, open water, and pH were significantly different between sites with and without An. vestitipennis. For An. punctimacula, percent cover of tall dense macrophytes, trees, detritus, open water, and water depth were significantly different between larvae positive and negative sites. The discriminant function for An. vestitipennis correctly predicted the presence of larvae in 65% of sites and correctly predicted the absence of larvae in 88% of sites. The discriminant function for An. punctimacula correctly predicted 81% of sites for the presence of larvae and 45% for the absence of larvae. Canonical discriminant analysis of the three groups of habitats (An. vestitipennis positive; An. punctimacula positive; all negative) confirmed that while larval habitats of An. punctimacula are clustered in the tree dominated area, larval habitats of An. vestitipennis were found in both tree dominated and tall dense macrophyte dominated environments. The forest larval habitats of An. vestitipennis and An. punctimacula seem to be randomly distributed among different forest types. Both species tend to occur in denser forests with more detritus, shallower water, and slightly higher pH. Classification of dry season (February) SPOT multispectral satellite imagery produced 10 land cover types with the swamp forest and tall dense marsh classes being of particular interest. The accuracy assessment showed that commission errors for the tall, dense marsh and swamp forest appeared to be minor; but omission errors were significant, especially for the swamp forest (perhaps because no swamp forests are flooded in February). This means that where the classification indicates there are An. vestitipennis breeding sites, they probably do exist; but breeding sites in many locations are not identified and could be more abundant than indicated.

NASA Discipline General Space Life Sciences↗