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The IAEA coordinated research programme on HTGR uncertainty analysis: Phase I status and Ex. I-1 prismatic reference results

The quantification of uncertainties in design and safety analysis of reactors is today not only broadly accepted, but in many cases became the preferred way to replace traditional conservative analysis for safety and licensing analysis. The use of a more fundamental methodology is also consistent with the reliable high fidelity physics models and robust, efficient, and accurate codes available today. To facilitate uncertainty analysis applications a comprehensive approach and methodology must be developed and applied, in contrast to the historical approach where sensitivity analysis were performed and uncertainties then determined by a simplified statistical combination of a few important input parameters. New methodologies are currently under development in the OECD/NEA Light Water Reactor (LWR) Uncertainty Analysis in Best-Estimate Modelling (UAM) benchmark activity. High Temperature Gas-cooled Reactor (HTGR) designs require specific treatment of the double heterogeneous fuel design and large graphite quantities at high temperatures. The IAEA has therefore launched a Coordinated Research Project (CRP) on HTGR Uncertainty Analysis in Modelling (UAM) in 2013 to study uncertainty propagation specifically in the HTGR analysis chain. Two benchmark problems are defined, with the prismatic design represented by the General Atomics (GA) MHTGR-350 and a 250 MW modular pebble bed design similar to the Chinese HTR-PM. Work has started on the first phase and the current CRP status is reported in the paper. A comparison of the Serpent and SCALE/KENO-VI reference Monte Carlo results for Ex. I-1 of the MHTGR-350 design is also included. It was observed that the SCALE/KENO-VI Continuous Energy (CE) k ∞ values were 395 pcm (Ex. I-1a) to 803 pcm (Ex. I-1b) higher than the respective Serpent lattice calculations, and that within the set of the SCALE results, the KENO-VI 238 Multi-Group (MG) k ∞ values were up to 800 pcm lower than the KENO-VI CE values. The use of the latest ENDF-B-VII.1 cross section library in Serpent lead to ~180 pcm lower k ∞ values compared to the older ENDF-B-VII.0 dataset, caused by the modified graphite neutron capture cross section. Furthermore, the fourth beta release of SCALE 6.2 likewise produced lower CE k∞ values when compared to SCALE 6.1, and the improved performance of the new 252-group library available in SCALE 6.2 is especially noteworthy. A SCALE/TSUNAMI uncertainty analysis of the Hot Full Power variant for Ex. I-1a furthermore concluded that the 238 U(n,γ) (capture) and 235 U(View the MathML source) cross-section covariance matrices contributed the most to the total k ∞ uncertainty of 0.58%.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Results for Phase I of the IAEA Coordinated Research Program on HTGR Uncertainties

The quantification of uncertainties in design and safety analysis of reactors is today not only broadly accepted, but in many cases became the preferred way to replace traditional conservative analysis for safety and licensing analysis. The use of a more fundamental methodology is also consistent with the reliable high fidelity physics models and robust, efficient, and accurate codes available today. To facilitate uncertainty analysis applications a comprehensive approach and methodology must be developed and applied. High Temperature Gas-cooled Reactors (HTGR) has its own peculiarities, coated particle design, large graphite quantities, different materials and high temperatures that also require other simulation requirements. The IAEA has therefore launched a Coordinated Research Project (CRP) on the HTGR Uncertainty Analysis in Modeling (UAM) in 2013 to study uncertainty propagation specifically in the HTGR analysis chain. Two benchmark problems are defined, with the prismatic design represented by the General Atomics (GA) MHTGR-350 and a 250 MW modular pebble bed design similar to the HTR-PM (INET, China). This report summarizes the contributions of the HTGR Methods Simulation group at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) up to this point of the CRP. The activities at INL have been focused so far on creating the problem specifications for the prismatic design, as well as providing reference solutions for the exercises defined for Phase I. An overview is provided of the HTGR UAM objectives and scope, and the detailed specifications for Exercises I-1, I-2, I-3 and I-4 are also included here for completeness. The main focus of the report is the compilation and discussion of reference results for Phase I (i.e. for input parameters at their nominal or best-estimate values), which is defined as the first step of the uncertainty quantification process. These reference results can be used by other CRP participants for comparison with other codes or their own reference results. The status on the Monte Carlo modeling of the experimental VHTRC facility is also discussed. Reference results were obtained for the neutronics stand-alone cases (Ex. I-1 and Ex. I-2) using the (relatively new) Monte Carlo code Serpent, and comparisons were performed with the more established Monte Carlo codes MCNP and KENO-VI. For the thermal-fluids stand-alone cases (Ex. I-3 and I-4) the commercial CFD code CFX was utilized to obtain reference results that can be compared with lower fidelity tools.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Oakridge Geothermal Resources Assessment

Through the Communities Local Energy Action Program (LEAP), NREL provided technical assistance to a coalition of stakeholders from Oakridge, Oregon. The coalition included community-based non-profit organizations, the city government, the local utility, and others. Technical assistance provides analysis and information to support Oakridge stakeholders with their goals to increase energy reliability and resilience in the community, while promoting economic development. The Geothermal Resource Assessment provides technical analysis related to the geothermal resource in the Oakridge area, possible technology applications, and information related to further geothermal exploration. Technical analysis includes a review of a previous geothermal study conducted for Oakridge, thermal modeling to estimate reservoir temperatures, and technoeconomic simulation of a combined heat and power application in the Oakridge area.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Dual-angle, self-calibrating Thomson scattering measurements in RFX-MOD

In the multipoint Thomson scattering (TS) system of the RFX-MOD experiment the signals from a few spatial positions can be observed simultaneously under two different scattering angles. In addition the detection system uses optical multiplexing by signal delays in fiber optic cables of different length so that the two sets of TS signals can be observed by the same polychromator. Owing to the dependence of the TS spectrum on the scattering angle, it was then possible to implement self-calibrating TS measurements in which the electron temperature T{sub e}, the electron density n{sub e} and the relative calibration coefficients of spectral channels sensitivity C{sub i} were simultaneously determined by a suitable analysis of the two sets of TS data collected at the two angles. The analysis has shown that, in spite of the small difference in the spectra obtained at the two angles, reliable values of the relative calibration coefficients can be determined by the analysis of good S/N dual‑angle spectra recorded in a few tens of plasma shots. This analysis suggests that in RFX-MOD the calibration of the entire set of TS polychromators by means of the similar, dual-laser (Nd:YAG/Nd:YLF) TS technique, should be feasible.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Hydrogen Compressor Reliability Investigation and Improvement. Cooperative Research and Development Final Report, CRADA Number CRD-13-514

Diaphragm compressors have become the primary source of on-site hydrogen compression for hydrogen fueling stations around the world. NREL and PDC have undertaken two studies aimed at improving hydrogen compressor operation and reducing the cost contribution to dispensed fuel. The first study identified the failure mechanisms associated with mechanical compression to reduce the maintenance and down-time. The second study will investigate novel station configurations to maximize hydrogen usage and compressor lifetime. This partnership will allow for the simulation of operations in the field and a thorough analysis of the component failure to improve the reliability of diaphragm compression.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

Structure retrieval from four-dimensional scanning transmission electron microscopy: Statistical analysis of potential pitfalls in high-dimensional data

Four-dimensional (4D) scanning transmission electron microscopy is one of the most rapidly growing modes of electron microscopy imaging. The advent of fast pixelated cameras and the associated data infrastructure have greatly accelerated this process. Yet conversion of the 4D datasets into physically meaningful structure images in real space remains an open issue. In this work, we demonstrate that it is possible to systematically create filters that will affect the apparent resolution or even qualitative features of the real-space structure image, reconstructing artificially generated patterns. As initial efforts, we explore statistical model selection algorithms, aiming for robustness and reliability of estimated filters. This statistical model selection analysis demonstrates the need for regularization and cross validation of inversion methods to robustly recover structure from high-dimensional diffraction datasets.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Likelihood-based signal and noise analysis for docking of models into cryo-EM maps

Fast, reliable docking of models into cryo-EM maps requires understanding of the errors in the maps and the models. Likelihood-based approaches to errors have proven to be powerful and adaptable in experimental structural biology, finding applications in both crystallography and cryo-EM. Indeed, previous crystallographic work on the errors in structural models is directly applicable to likelihood targets in cryo-EM. Likelihood targets in Fourier space are derived here to characterize, based on the comparison of half-maps, the direction- and resolution-dependent variation in the strength of both signal and noise in the data. Because the signal depends on local features, the signal and noise are analysed in local regions of the cryo-EM reconstruction. The likelihood analysis extends to prediction of the signal that will be achieved in any docking calculation for a model of specified quality and completeness. A related calculation generalizes a previous measure of the information gained by making the cryo-EM reconstruction.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Segmentation method comparison for residual fiber length measurement across tiled microscopy images

Fiber length distribution (FLD), in part, governs mechanical properties in discontinuous fiber composites, yet manual measurement methods limit the high-throughput characterization needed for materials design optimization. This study compares deep learning segmentation approaches for automated FLD measurement in large-field microscopy, evaluating how method choice affects the microstructural descriptors used in structure-property-processing relationships. A critical challenge is that high-resolution microscopy images (10,000×10,000 pixels) must be tiled for deep learning analysis, fragmenting fibers at boundaries. We demonstrate that segmentation method proves crucial for measurement accuracy. For example, instance segmentation with Slicing Aided Hyper Inference (SAHI) preserves individual fiber integrity across tiles while semantic segmentation prioritizes speed. Comparing against manual measurement of extracted carbon fibers, YOLOv11-SAHI matched manual ground truth (238 μm weighted mean) with 40x speedup (4.5 vs 167 minutes per image). U-Net provides rapid quantification although it is at the cost of reduced accuracy due only reliably measuring stand-alone fibers. Our comparative analysis reveals that instance segmentation with SAHI better preserves length measurements while semantic segmentation prioritizes speed, providing empirical guidance for method selection. The characterization provides essential inputs for mechanical property prediction models and inverse design workflows, accelerating composite materials development cycles.

Additive manufacturing↗

Preparatory Verification of a New Monte Carlo Code cosRMC based on VERA Core Physics Benchmark

To promote nuclear power plant system design and simulation software self-reliance development, DOE of China approved a R and D key project to develop an integrated engine for pressurized water reactor core and system design and analysis, referred as COSINE hereafter. The scope of this code package includes reactor physics, thermal hydraulics, safety analysis, severe accidents, probability safety assessment and etc. Many universities, research institutes and nuclear related corporations in China are involved in the code development, among which the State Nuclear Power Software Development Center (SNPSDC) plays the leading role. With the requirement of accurate three-dimensional modeling of the advanced, special or new complex core in reactor neutronics and shielding analysis, Monte Carlo method is becoming a more powerful tool for reactor analysis. Thus, a new Monte Carlo transport code named cosRMC (abbreviation for COSINE Reactor Monte Carlo) has been developed jointly by SNPSDC and Department of Engineering Physics, Tsinghua University, the main developer of RMC code. The cosRMC now has many functions as criticality calculation, fixed-source calculation, burnup calculation, and etc. Some techniques for geometry treatment, new burnup algorithm, source convergence acceleration, massive tally and parallel calculation have been implemented in cosRMC to improve the efficiency. In order to ensure its reliability, several types of V and V work have been and are being carried out for cosRMC. In this paper, some preparatory verification results based on VERA Core Physics Benchmark are presented. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Tuscaloosa Marine Shale: Seal or Source? Petrophysical Comparative Study of Wells in SE Louisiana and SW Mississippi

The Tuscaloosa Marine Shale (TMS) is a versatile Late Cretaceous shale formation present in central and SE Louisiana and SW Mississippi, which drew attention because of the various roles played within the Tuscaloosa Group. In this paper, it is debated whether the Tuscaloosa Marine Shale can act as a source, reservoir, or seal all throughout the shale play or only in certain areas. Well log and core data from Adams County, Mississippi, are compared to data from East Feliciana Parish in Louisiana. Conclusions were drawn based on the results of well log analysis, X-ray Diffraction (XRD), porosity–permeability measurements, programmed pyrolysis, and fracture analysis. It was shown that the Tuscaloosa Marine Shale interval in SE Louisiana consists of important amounts of calcite, exhibits multiple natural fractures, has porosity values as high as 9.3%, and shows a TOC content of up to 2.8 wt%. On the other hand, samples from a well at the Cranfield field, MS, are characterized by considerably lower TOC values of around 0.88 wt%, porosities between 0.33% and 4%, and no serious fracturing. The formation demonstrates better reservoir and source potential in SE Louisiana and reliable CO2 sealing capacity in SW Mississippi. The analysis presented in this paper represents a holistic approach to the characterization of shale formations, is applicable to other plays around the world, and can be used as an integral part of CO2 sequestration or hydraulic fracturing programs.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗

Small angle scattering of diblock copolymers profiled by machine learning

We outline a machine learning strategy for quantitively determining the conformation of AB-type diblock copolymers with excluded volume effects using small angle scattering. Complemented by computer simulations, a correlation matrix connecting conformations of different copolymers according to their scattering features is established on the mathematical framework of a Gaussian process, a multivariate extension of the familiar univariate Gaussian distribution. We show that the relevant conformational characteristics of copolymers can be probabilistically inferred from their coherent scattering cross sections without any restriction imposed by model assumptions. This work not only facilitates the quantitative structural analysis of copolymer solutions but also provides the reliable benchmarking for the related theoretical development of scattering functions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

3D DVH-based metric analysis versus per-beam planar analysis in IMRT pretreatment verification

Purpose: To evaluate methods of pretreatment IMRT analysis, using real measurements performed with a commercial 2D detector array, for clinical relevance and accuracy by comparing clinical DVH parameters. Methods: We divided the work into two parts. The first part consisted of six in-phantom tests aimed to study the sensitivity of the different analysis methods. Beam fluences, 3D dose distribution, and DVH of an unaltered original plan were compared to those of the delivered plan, in which an error had been intentionally introduced. The second part consisted of comparing gamma analysis with DVH metrics for 17 patient plans from various sites. Beam fluences were measured with the MapCHECK 2 detector, per-beam planar analysis was performed with the MapCHECK software, and 3D gamma analysis and the DVH evaluation were performed using 3DVH software. Results: In a per-beam gamma analysis some of the tests yielded false positives or false negatives. However, the 3DVH software correctly described the DVH of the plan which included the error. The measured DVH from the plan with controlled error agreed with the planned DVH within 2% dose or 2% volume. We also found that a gamma criterion of 3%/3 mm was too lax to detect some of the forced errors. Global analysis masked some problems, while local analysis magnified irrelevant errors at low doses. Small hotspots were missed for all metrics due to the spatial resolution of the detector panel. DVH analysis for patient plans revealed small differences between treatment plan calculations and 3DVH results, with the exception of very small volume structures such as the eyes and the lenses. Target coverage (D{sub 98} and D{sub 95}) of the measured plan was systematically lower than that predicted by the treatment planning system, while other DVH characteristics varied depending on the parameter and organ. Conclusions: We found no correlation between the gamma index and the clinical impact of a discrepancy for any of the gamma index evaluation possibilities (global, local, 2D, or 3D). Some of the tests yielded false positives or false negatives in a per-beam gamma analysis. However, they were correctly accounted for in a DVH analysis. We also showed that 3DVH software is reliable for our tests, and is a viable method for correlating planar discrepancies with clinical relevance by comparing the measured DVH of target and OAR's with clinical tolerance.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Portable and Cost-Effective Device for Reliable Detection of Counterfeit and Non-compliant Refrigerants in Diverse Applications

Counterfeit refrigerants pose significant challenges to safety, system reliability, and operational effectiveness due to their harmful contaminants or incompatible chemical compositions. Utilizing these noncompliant products can lead to reduced efficiency, equipment failures, and expensive repairs. Additionally, heightened demand for alternative refrigerants during the industry's transition has created supply gaps, enabling counterfeit products to proliferate. Accurate detection and analysis tools are therefore essential to verify refrigerant authenticity and ensure system integrity in diverse applications. This paper presents the development of a portable device designed for reliable identification and detailed analysis of refrigerant composition. By integrating precision gas sampling, controlled pressure regulation, and automated sensor technology, the device not only detects deviations from standard refrigerant properties but also provides a comprehensive composition breakdown. Pre-calibrated sensors measure the refrigerant gas to identify specific concentrations and contaminants, with an intuitive LED-based indicator system ensuring quick interpretation of results. The user-friendly interface enables operators to select refrigerant types for targeted testing, further enhancing accuracy and usability for field technicians. Comprehensive testing was conducted on mildly flammable A2L refrigerants, showcasing the device’s robustness and adaptability in analyzing composition and detecting discrepancies. The device demonstrated consistent accuracy across a range of refrigerant samples, affirming its reliability in diverse operational environments. Its design minimizes contamination risks during sampling and provides detailed composition results within 90 seconds, ensuring efficient and precise analysis. With a projected price point under $150, the proposed solution delivers affordability alongside its lightweight portability and straightforward operation. Unlike complex and costly alternatives, such as gas chromatography systems, this device provides an accessible option for technicians, customs personnel, and industry operators in need of quick and effective refrigerant verification. Compatible with both current formulations and emerging refrigerant technologies, the device addresses critical counterfeit detection needs across a range of applications. By delivering accurate composition analysis and counterfeit identification, this innovation enhances system performance, safety, and operational reliability in crucial industries.

Cheekatamarla, Praveen [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000248827↗

Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis

Uncertainties associated with solar forecasts present challenges to maintain grid reliability, especially at high solar penetrations. This study aims to quantify the errors associated with the day-ahead solar forecast parameters and the theoretical solar power output for a 51-kW solar power plant in a utility area in the state of Vermont, U.S. Forecasts were generated by three numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, including the Rapid Refresh, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, and the North American Model, and a machine-learning ensemble model. A photovoltaic (PV) performance model was adopted to calculate theoretical solar power generation using the forecast parameters (e.g., irradiance, cell temperature, and wind speed). Errors of the power outputs were quantified using statistical moments and a suite of metrics, such as the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE). In addition, the PV model's sensitivity to different forecast parameters was quantified and analyzed. Results showed that the ensemble model yielded forecasts in all parameters with the smallest NRMSE. The NRMSE of solar irradiance forecasts of the ensemble NWP model was reduced by 28.10% compared to the best of the three NWP models. Further, the sensitivity analysis indicated that the errors of the forecasted cell temperature attributed only approximately 0.12% to the NRMSE of the power output as opposed to 7.44% from the forecasted solar irradiance.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Analysis Program 2021 Annual Progress Report

During fiscal year 2021 (FY 2021), the U.S. Department of Energy Vehicle Technologies Office (VTO) funded analysis projects supportive of VTO’s goals to pursue early-stage research in vehicle and mobility system technologies to reduce petroleum dependence, increase energy reliability and security, improve transportation affordability, and promote economic growth. VTO analysis projects result in a foundation of data, analytical models, and applied analyses that provide insights into critical transportation energy problems and assist in research investment prioritization and portfolio planning. This document presents a brief overview of VTO analysis efforts and progress for projects funded in FY 2021. Each of the progress reports includes project objectives, approach, and highlights of the technical results that were accomplished during the fiscal year (FY).

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Hydrogen Component Reliability Database (HyCReD)

The Hydrogen Component Reliability Database (HyCReD) is a collaborative project between the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, the University of Maryland, and hydrogen stakeholders to improve safety reliability for hydrogen facilities by integrating risk reduction methodologies and component reliability data taxonomies that support hydrogen infrastructure failure rate analysis.

availability↗

Approximation Framework of Embodied Energy of Safety: Insights and Analysis

Transportation safety, as a critical component of an efficient and reliable transportation system, has been extensively studied with respect to societal economic impacts by transportation agencies and policy officials. However, the embodied energy impact of safety, other than induced congestion, is lacking in studies. This research proposes an energy equivalence of safety (EES) framework to provide a holistic view of the long-term energy and fuel consequences of motor vehicle crashes, incorporating both induced congestion and impacts from lost human productivity resulting from injury and fatal accidents and the energy content resulting from all consequences and activities from a crash. The method utilizes a ratio of gross domestic product (GDP) to national energy consumed in a framework that bridges the gap between safety and energy, leveraging extensive studies of the economic impact of motor vehicle crashes. The energy costs per fatal, injury, and property-damage-only (PDO) crashes in gasoline gallon equivalent (GGE) in 2017 were found to be 200,259, 4442, and 439, respectively, which are significantly greater than impacts from induced congestion alone. The results from the motor vehicle crash data show a decreasing trend of EES per crash type from 2010 and 2017, due primarily in part to a decreasing ratio of total energy consumed to GDP over those years. In addition to the temporal analysis, we conducted a spatial analysis addressing national-, state-, and local-level EES comparisons by using the proposed framework, illustrating its applicability.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Data Mining and Machine Learning for Power System Monitoring, Understanding, and Impact Evaluation

This chapter presents results from the Big Data analysis framework to improve power system situational awareness and system reliability. For this purpose, a dataset with real-world phasor measurement unit data and historical transmission system outage data has been created and used to carry out the analysis. Several statistical analysis and machine learning methods have been developed and implemented for event and anomaly detection and modeling. Detection and analysis results for actual examples of power system events are presented. Finally, data-driven characterization and risk assessment methods for weather-related extremes in power systems are developed and demonstrated on the Bonneville Power Administration system. These applications demonstrate the capability of Machine Learning (ML) methods to monitor system abnormalities, to predict system events, and to characterize the impact of extreme events on power grid

data mining, power grid, machine learning, anomaly↗