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At least 829 records · Page 46

Constraints on Cosmological Parameters From The Sunyaev-Zel'dovich Effect and Thermal Bremsstrahlung

We discuss the possibility of constraining cosmological parameters using the Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (SZ) effect and thermal bremsstrahlung caused by intra-cluster gas in clusters of galaxies. The new generation of X-ray satellites and ground based interferometers dedicated to SZ observations will enable one to reduce uncertainties in these measurements, and thus make this method potentially quite promising in the near future. The importance of this method is that, unlike most other methods, it is based on physical principles, no 'standard candles' or 'rulers' needed. We estimate the accuracy achievable in the determination of the matter density, OMEGA(sub m), the cosmological constant, OMEGA(sub LAMBDA), and the Hubble constant, h, using the redshift dependence of the angular diameter distance derived from observations in the near future. We demonstrate that constraints from the angular diameter distance are orthogonal to those from Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) fluctuations in the parameter space defined by OMEGA(sub m), OMEGA(sub LAMBDA), and h. Assuming a statistical error of five percent in the angular diameter distance for each cluster in a sample of five hundred clusters, we show that the redshift dependence of the angular diameter distance combined with constraints from CMB fluctuations can put stringent constraints on OMEGA(sub m) (+/- 0.03), OMEGA(sub LAMBDA) (+/- 0.03) and h (+/- 0.03, 3(sigma) errors). We also show that, with as few as 50 clusters between redshifts 0.01 and 1.5 with an assumed 10% statistical error in the angular diameter distance determination, one can distinguish between models with zero cosmological constant and spatially flat models with a cosmological constant with high confidence level (independently from the supernova results) and put meaningful constraints on OMEGA(sub m) (+/- 0.01), OMEGA(sub LAMBDA) (+/- 0.01) and h (+/- 0.01, 3(sigma) errors). With the expected advances in observational technology, we will be limited by systematic errors. We discuss the sources of systematic errors and how they can be reduced.

Molnar, S. M.↗

Hall2De Simulations with a First-Principles Electron Transport Model Based on the Electron Cyclotron Drift Instability

Several years of work have combined plasma measurements in a laboratory Hall thruster and r-z numerical simulations with Hall2De to isolate the spatial variation of the anomalous collision frequency needed in Ohm’s law to produce the observed thruster behavior. This numerical solution is used here to test the validity of a first-principles model of the anomalous transport in these devices before such model is implemented self-consistently in r-z fluid codes like Hall2De. The first-principles model employs quasi-linear theory and is based on the hypothesis that the Electron Cyclotron Drift Instability (ECDI) excites ion acoustic turbulence that, in turn, enhances the effective collision frequency in these devices. We find that a model of the ECDI that assumes Maxwellian velocity distributions for electrons and singly-charged, main-beam, cold ions (Ti=0.07 eV) is insufficient to explain the expected variation of the anomalous collision frequency both in the interior and exterior of the acceleration channel. When warm ions (~0.5-3 eV) are accounted for, the ECDI model in the channel interior appears more promising but fails by orders of magnitude in the near plume region due to the much higher Landau damping of the ion acoustic waves there. This implies that either (a) some process allows the ECDI instability to remain uninhibited by classical Landau damping or, (b) that a different instability (or instabilities) altogether, also insusceptible to Landau damping, is/are active in this region. A previous hypothesis, that convection of wave energy generated by the ECDI in the channel plays a significant role in the near plume, is not supported by the results of the simulations.

Mikellides, Ioannis G.↗

Active Neutron and Gamma Ray Instrumentation for In Situ Planetary Science Applications

The Pulsed Neutron Generator-Gamma Ray And Neutron Detectors (PNG-GRAND) experiment is an innovative application of the active neutron-gamma ray technology so successfully used in oil field well logging and mineral exploration on Earth. The objective of our active neutron-gamma ray technology program at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (NASA-GSFC) is to bring the PNG-GRAND instrument to the point where it can be flown on a variety of surface lander or rover missions to the Moon, Mars, Menus, asteroids, comets and the satellites of the outer planets. Gamma-Ray Spectrometers (GRS) have been incorporated into numerous orbital planetary science missions and, especially its the case of the Mars Odyssey GRS, have contributed detailed maps of the elemental composition over the entire surface of Mars. However, orbital gamma ray measurements have low spatial sensitivity (100's of km) due to their low surface emission rates from cosmic rays and subsequent need to be averaged over large surface areas. PNG-GRAND overcomes this impediment by incorporating a powerful neutron excitation source that permits high sensitivity surface and subsurface measurements of bulk elemental compositions. PNG-GRAND combines a pulsed neutron generator (PNG) with gamma ray and neutron detectors to produce a landed instrument to determine subsurface elemental composition without needing to drill into a planet's surface a great advantage in mission design. We are currently testing PNG-GRAND prototypes at a unique outdoor neutron instrumentation test facility recently constructed at NASA/GSFC that consists of a 2 m x 2 in x 1 m granite structure placed outdoors in an empty field. Because an independent trace elemental analysis has been performed on the material, this granite sample is a known standard with which to compare both Monte Carlo simulations and our experimentally measured elemental composition data. We will present data from operating PNG-GRAND in various experimental configurations on a known sample in a geometry that is identical to that on a planetary surface. We will also illustrate the use of gamma ray timing techniques to improve sensitivity and will compare the material composition results from our experiments to both an independent laboratory elemental composition analysis and MCNPX computer modeling results.

Parsons, A.↗

Generating Global CH4 NASA GEOS Product by Assimilating TROPOMI

Radiative properties of methane (CH4) significantly contribute to climate change and the recent acceleration of global CH4 growth requires thorough investigation into its causes. Examination of temporal and spatial CH4 variability is crucial for better understanding the shifts that are currently taking place. Integrating different CH4 observations to create a reliable, easily to use global atmospheric CH4 product could contribute to assessment of emissions processes, but remains challenging due to the lack of long satellite data records. Here we present the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) based global CH4 product constrained by atmospheric transport from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) and assimilated CH4 from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI). This product uses the Constituent Data Assimilation System (CoDAS) component of the GEOS capability, which has been expanded and generalized to assimilate any satellite, ground-based, or in situ observation of atmospheric composition that can be expressed as a vertical sounding or point sample. The product is similar to the one generated by assimilating carbon dioxide (CO2) data into GEOS from Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2): OCO-2 GEOS Level 3 daily and monthly, 0.5x0.625 assimilated CO2 V10r. The preliminary product is investigated using a variety of quality check approaches with the help of in situ observations to examine bias correction, error inflation, and performance of the assimilation system. Potential applications of this approach include support for interpretation of high-resolution point source detection approaches, climate and greenhouse gas reanalyses, and boundary conditions for regional modeling approaches.

Nikolay Balashov↗

Latitudinal Variations in Methane Abundance, Aerosol Opacity and Aerosol Scattering Efficiency in Neptune's Atmosphere Determined from VLT/MUSE

Spectral observations of Neptune made in 2019 with the Multi Unit Spectroscopic Explorer (MUSE) instrument at the Very Large Telescope (VLT) in Chile have been analyzed to determine the spatial variation of aerosol scattering properties and methane abundance in Neptune's atmosphere. The darkening of the South Polar Wave at ∼60°S, and dark spots such as the Voyager 2 Great Dark Spot is concluded to be due to a spectrally dependent darkening (λ < 650 nm) of particles in a deep aerosol layer at ∼5 bar and presumed to be composed of a mixture of photochemically generated haze and H 2 S ice. We also note a regular latitudinal variation of reflectivity at wavelengths of very low methane absorption longer than ∼650 nm, with bright zones latitudinally separated by ∼25°. This feature, which has similar spectral characteristics to a discrete deep bright spot DBS-2019 found in our data, is found to be consistent with a brightening of the particles in the same ∼5-bar aerosol layer at λ > 650 nm. We find the properties of an overlying methane/haze aerosol layer at ∼2 bar are, to first-order, invariant with latitude, while variations in the opacity of an upper tropospheric haze layer reproduce the observed reflectivity at methane-absorbing wavelengths, with higher abundances found at the equator and also in a narrow “zone” at 80°S. Finally, we find the mean abundance of methane below its condensation level to be 6%–7% at the equator reducing to ∼3% south of ∼25°S, although the absolute abundances are model dependent.

P. G. J. Irwin↗

Generating Vegetation Leaf Area Index Earth System Data Record from Multiple Sensors: Implementation, Analysis and Validation - Part 2

The evaluation of a new global monthly leaf area index (LAI) data set for the period July 1981 to December 2006 derived from AVHRR Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data is described. The physically based algorithm is detailed in the first of the two part series. Here, the implementation, production and evaluation of the data set are described. The data set is evaluated both by direct comparisons to ground data and indirectly through inter-comparisons with similar data sets. This indirect validation showed satisfactory agreement with existing LAI products, importantly MODIS, at a range of spatial scales, and significant correlations with key climate variables in areas where temperature and precipitation limit plant growth. The data set successfully reproduced well-documented spatio-temporal trends and inter-annual variations in vegetation activity in the northern latitudes and semi-arid tropics. Comparison with plot scale field measurements over homogeneous vegetation patches indicated a 7% underestimation when all major vegetation types are taken into account. The error in mean values obtained from distributions of AVHRR LAI and high-resolution field LAI maps for different biomes is within 0.5 LAI for six out of the ten selected sites. These validation exercises though limited by the amount of field data, and thus less than comprehensive, indicated satisfactory agreement between the LAI product and field measurements. Overall, the intercomparison with short-term LAI data sets, evaluation of long term trends with known variations in climate variables, and validation with field measurements together build confidence in the utility of this new 26 year LAI record for long term vegetation monitoring and modeling studies.

Ganguly, Sangram↗

HRMA calibration handbook: EKC gravity compensated XRCF models

This document, consisting of hardcopy printout of explanatory text, figures, and tables, represents one incarnation of the AXAF high resolution mirror assembly (HRMA) Calibration Handbook. However, as we have envisioned it, the handbook also consists of electronic versions of this hardcopy printout (in the form of postscript files), the individual scripts which produced the various figures and the associated input data, the model raytrace files, and all scripts, parameter files, and input data necessary to generate the raytraces. These data are all available electronically as either ASCII or FITS files. The handbook is intended to be a living document and will be updated as new information and/or fabrication data on the HRMA are obtained, or when the need for additional results are indicated. The SAO Mission Support Team (MST) is developing a high fidelity HRMA model, consisting of analytical and numerical calculations, computer software, and databases of fundamental physical constants, laboratory measurements, configuration data, finite element models, AXAF assembly data, and so on. This model serves as the basis for the simulations presented in the handbook. The 'core' of the model is the raytrace package OSAC, which we have substantially modified and now refer to as SAOsac. One major structural modification to the software has been to utilize the UNIX binary pipe data transport mechanism for passing rays between program modules. This change has made it possible to simulate rays which are distributed randomly over the entrance aperture of the telescope. It has also resulted in a highly efficient system for tracing large numbers of rays. In one application to date (the analysis of VETA-I ring focus data) we have employed 2 x 10(exp 7) rays, a substantial improvement over the limit of 1 x 10(exp 4) rays in the original OSAC module. A second major modification is the manner in which SAOsac incorporates low spatial frequency surface errors into the geometric raytrace. The original OSAC included the ability to use Legendre-Fourier polynomials to describe deviations from the basic optical prescription. To this we have added bicubic splines to address a deficiency in the handling of the sharper deformations in the areas of mirror support pads. SAO has developed software (TRANS-FIT) to translate the most common finite element analysis models into these forms for incorporation into the raytrace program.

Tananbaum, H. D.↗

The Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) for the GOES-R Series Next Generation Operational Environmental Satellite Constellation

The next generation Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-R) series with a planned launch in 2015 is a follow on to the existing GOES system currently operating over the Western Hemisphere. The system will aid in forecasting severe storms and tornado activity, and convective weather impacts on aviation safety and efficiency. The system provides products including lightning, cloud properties, rainfall rate, volcanic ash, air quality, hurricane intensity, and fire/hot spot characterization. Advancements over current GOES include a new capability for total lightning detection (cloud and cloud-to-ground flashes) from the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM), and improved spectral, spatial, and temporal resolution for the 16-channel Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI). The Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM), an optical transient detector will map total (in-cloud and cloud-to-ground) lightning flashes continuously day and night with near-uniform spatial resolution of 8 km with a product refresh rate of less than 20 sec over the Americas and adjacent oceanic regions, from the west coast of Africa (GOES-E) to New Zealand (GOES-W) when the constellation is fully operational. In parallel with the instrument development, a GOES-R Risk Reduction Team and Algorithm Working Group Lightning Applications Team have begun to develop the higher level algorithms and applications using the GLM alone and decision aids incorporating information from the ABI, ground-based weather radar, and numerical models. Proxy total lightning data from the NASA Lightning Imaging Sensor on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite and regional lightning networks are being used to develop the pre-launch algorithms and applications, and also improve our knowledge of thunderstorm initiation and evolution. Real time total lightning mapping data are also being provided in an experimental mode to selected National Weather Service (NWS) national centers and forecast offices via the GOES-R Proving Ground to help improve our understanding of the application of these data in operational settings and facilitate early on-orbit user readiness for this new capability.

Goodman, Steven J.↗

Impacts of Light Use Efficiency and fPAR Parameterization on Gross Primary Production Modeling

This study examines the impact of parameterization of two variables, light use efficiency (LUE) and the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (fPAR or fAPAR), on gross primary production(GPP) modeling. Carbon sequestration by terrestrial plants is a key factor to a comprehensive under-standing of the carbon budget at global scale. In this context, accurate measurements and estimates of GPP will allow us to achieve improved carbon monitoring and to quantitatively assess impacts from cli-mate changes and human activities. Spaceborne remote sensing observations can provide a variety of land surface parameterizations for modeling photosynthetic activities at various spatial and temporal scales. This study utilizes a simple GPP model based on LUE concept and different land surface parameterizations to evaluate the model and monitor GPP. Two maize-soybean rotation fields in Nebraska, USA and the Bartlett Experimental Forest in New Hampshire, USA were selected for study. Tower-based eddy-covariance carbon exchange and PAR measurements were collected from the FLUXNET Synthesis Dataset. For the model parameterization, we utilized different values of LUE and the fPAR derived from various algorithms. We adapted the approach and parameters from the MODIS MOD17 Biome Properties Look-Up Table (BPLUT) to derive LUE. We also used a site-specific analytic approach with tower-based Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) and PAR to estimate maximum potential LUE (LUEmax) to derive LUE. For the fPAR parameter, the MODIS MOD15A2 fPAR product was used. We also utilized fAPAR chl, a parameter accounting for the fAPAR linked to the chlorophyll-containing canopy fraction. fAPAR chl was obtained by inversion of a radiative transfer model, which used the MODIS-based reflectances in bands 1-7 produced by Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) algorithm. fAPAR chl exhibited seasonal dynamics more similar with the flux tower based GPP than MOD15A2 fPAR, especially in the spring and fall at the agricultural sites. When using the MODIS MOD17-based parameters to estimate LUE, fAPAR chl generated better agreements with GPP (r2= 0.79-0.91) than MOD15A2 fPAR (r2= 0.57-0.84).However, underestimations of GPP were also observed, especially for the crop fields. When applying the site-specific LUE max value to estimate in situ LUE, the magnitude of estimated GPP was closer to in situ GPP; this method produced a slight overestimation for the MOD15A2 fPAR at the Bartlett forest. This study highlights the importance of accurate land surface parameterizations to achieve reliable carbon monitoring capabilities from remote sensing information.

grossprimary↗

In Vitro Experimental Model to Investigate the Biological Effects across the Bragg Curve of High-LET Radiation

The space environment consists of a varying field of radiation particles including high energy ions, with a spacecrafts shielding material providing the only major protection to astronauts from harmful exposure. Unlike lowLET gamma or Xrays, the presence of shielding does not always reduce the radiation risks for energetic charged particle exposure since the dose delivered by the charged particle increases sharply as the particle approaches the end of its range, a position known as the Bragg peak and the correlating spatial dose distribution identified as the Bragg curve. The Bragg curve does not necessarily represent the biological damage along the particle traversal since biological effects are influenced by the track structure of both primary and secondary particles. Therefore, the biological Bragg curve is dependent of the energy and the type of the primary particle, and may vary for different biological endpoints. Here we describe a unique irradiation geometry and experimental system to measure the biological response across the Bragg curve in one consistent biological sample. Polyethylene shielding was used to achieve a Bragg curve distribution with the beam geometry parallel to a monolayer of fibroblast cells. We present data that highlights the differential formation of DNA double strand breaks (DSBs) and chromosomal deletions across the Bragg curve in human fibroblasts irradiated with 600 MeV/nucleon iron ion beams. Qualitative analyses of gammaH2AX fluorescence, a known marker of DSBs, indicated potentially increased clustering of DNA damage before the Bragg peak, enhanced homogenous distribution at the peak, and provided visual evidence of high linear energy transfer (LET) particle traversal of cells beyond the Bragg peak in agreement with one-dimensional transport approximations. A biological response curve generated for micronuclei induction across the Bragg curve for 600 MeV/n Fe ions did not reveal an increase in the yield of micronuclei at the Bragg peak location. Assessment of such biological parameters employing the described in vitro experimental system may provide improved platforms to measure a number of biological consequences of shielding materials across the Bragg curve for high charge and energy (HZE) ions.

Desai, N.↗

A Framework for Orbital Performance Evaluation in Distributed Space Missions for Earth Observation

Distributed Space Missions (DSMs) are gaining momentum in their application to earth science missions owing to their unique ability to increase observation sampling in spatial, spectral and temporal dimensions simultaneously. DSM architectures have a large number of design variables and since they are expected to increase mission flexibility, scalability, evolvability and robustness, their design is a complex problem with many variables and objectives affecting performance. There are very few open-access tools available to explore the tradespace of variables which allow performance assessment and are easy to plug into science goals, and therefore select the most optimal design. This paper presents a software tool developed on the MATLAB engine interfacing with STK, for DSM orbit design and selection. It is capable of generating thousands of homogeneous constellation or formation flight architectures based on pre-defined design variable ranges and sizing those architectures in terms of predefined performance metrics. The metrics can be input into observing system simulation experiments, as available from the science teams, allowing dynamic coupling of science and engineering designs. Design variables include but are not restricted to constellation type, formation flight type, FOV of instrument, altitude and inclination of chief orbits, differential orbital elements, leader satellites, latitudes or regions of interest, planes and satellite numbers. Intermediate performance metrics include angular coverage, number of accesses, revisit coverage, access deterioration over time at every point of the Earth's grid. The orbit design process can be streamlined and variables more bounded along the way, owing to the availability of low fidelity and low complexity models such as corrected HCW equations up to high precision STK models with J2 and drag. The tool can thus help any scientist or program manager select pre-Phase A, Pareto optimal DSM designs for a variety of science goals without having to delve into the details of the engineering design process.

Earth Science↗

Testing of Advanced Capabilities to Enable In-time Safety Management and Assurance for Future Flight Operations

In order to refine an initial Concept of Operations, explore Concepts of Use, and expose/validate requirements for future In-Time Aviation Safety Management Systems (IASMS), testing architectures were created, along with a set of capabilities and underlying information exchange protocols. These systems were conceived and developed based on hazards associated with two envisioned urban area flight domains: (1) highly autonomous small uncrewed aerial systems (sUAS) operating at low altitudes, and (2) highly autonomous air taxis. The initial scope of this development is described in [1]; this report provides an update, focusing on the subsequent developments and test activities. As stated in [1], it is important to note that there are many capabilities already in use by the industry (or soon to be in use) that will play critical roles in future IASMS designs. Those reported here were developed to address a gap in the current state-of-the-art regarding specific hazards/risks, and/or to allow for investigation of the interplay between and across hazard types — particularly regarding how overall safety risk can be reduced or managed effectively. Results of testing and development activities are organized by the operational phase wherein a particular capability would be employed (i.e., preflight, in-flight, and post-flight/off-line). Pre-flight: A set of capabilities were developed to help mitigate safety risk prior to flight (e.g., during flight and mission planning). Results of testing summarize (1) validation activities to raise the Technology Readiness Level (TRL) and (2) evaluation activities where the capabilities were applied to flight/mission planning procedures and used by operators/pilots. For the latter, flight plans were automatically assessed, and operators/pilots were notified of hazardous flight segments so as to enable adjustment of the flight plan and re-evaluation, and/or to better inform go/no-go decisions. Capabilities addressed hazards associated with power consumption, third-party risk, wind, navigation system performance, radiofrequency interference, and proximity to geo-spatial threats (e.g., buildings, trees, and no-fly zones). In-flight: Flight experiments tested capabilities that detect and respond to hazards encountered during flight. In the first series, safety hazards were monitored and assessed onboard, and system-generated mitigation maneuvers were recorded (but not acted upon by the vehicle). In the second series, mitigation maneuver commands directed the aircraft in response to safety hazards (i.e., auto-mitigation). The sUAS used for testing is described in full, as is the test architecture, which included commercial avionics, research avionics, and onboard software designed to detect, assess, and respond to hazards. The onboard system was designed as a run-time assurance framework, consistent with [2] and supportive of both supervisory and automated modes. The primary functions included: real-time risk assessment (RTRA), auto-pilot monitoring, constraint monitoring, and contingency select/triggering. RTRA performs integrated risk assessment considering data from several hazard-related monitors (e.g., battery, motors, navigation, communications, population density, and loss-of-control). Post-flight/off-line: Data monitored and recorded during flights can enable IASMS capabilities that execute after flights have completed (or “off-line”). These include: (1) the ability to identify anomalies and trends that may only be observable when comparing data spanning a number of similar flights; (2) the ability to update and validate pre-flight and in-flight capabilities and any underlying models to improve their performance; (3) the ability to report anomalies/off-nominals that may indicate design changes or maintenance actions are needed; and (4) the ability for humans involved in operations to report safety-relevant observations to help in understanding the flight data and/or the operational context of a flight. Progress on three such capabilities is summarized; the first investigates anomaly detection given a limited set of flight logs and applies an approach previously used for space operations. The second explores what could be identified using a larger set of flight logs, including from web-based forums where flight logs are posted by sUAS autopilot users. The third creates a new means of collecting information on UAS incidents and accidents via the Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS).

sUAS↗

Satellite Sensed Skin Sea Surface Temperature

Quantitative predictions of spatial and temporal changes the global climate rely heavily on the use of computer models. Unfortunately, such models cannot provide the basis for climate prediction because key physical processes are inadequately treated. Consequently, fine tuning procedures are often used to optimize the fit between model output and observational data and the validation of climate models using observations is essential if model based predictions of climate change are to be treated with any degree of confidence. Satellite Sea Surface Temperature (SST) observations provide high spatial and temporal resolution data which is extremely well suited to the initialization, definition of boundary conditions and, validation of climate models. In the case of coupled ocean-atmosphere models, the SST (or more correctly the 'Skin' SST (SSST)) is a fundamental diagnostic variable to consider in the validation process. Daily global SST maps derived from satellite sensors also provide adequate data for the detection of global patterns of change which, unlike any other SST data set, repeatedly extend into the southern hemisphere extra-tropical regions. Such data are essential to the success of the spatial 'fingerprint' technique, which seeks to establish a north-south asymmetry where warming is suppressed in the high latitude Southern Ocean. Some estimates suggest that there is a greater than 80% chance of directly detecting significant change (97.5 % confidence level) after 10-12 years of consistent global observations of mean sea surface temperature. However, these latter statements should be qualified with the assumption that a negligible drift in the observing system exists and that biases between individual instruments required to derive a long term data set are small. Given that current estimates for the magnitude of global warming of 0.015 K yr(sup -1) - 0.025 K yr(sup -1), satellite SST data sets need to be both accurate and stable if such a warming trend is to be confidently detected. Some of these activities are focussed to develop and deploy instrumentation suitable for the collection of precise in situ measurements of the SSST which can be used to improve the accuracy of satellite measurements, while others develop techniques to generate improved global analyses of sea surface temperature using historical data.

Donlon, Craig↗

Calculating Soil Wetness, Evapotranspiration and Carbon Cycle Processes Over Large Grid Areas Using a New Scaling Technique

Soil wetness typically shows great spatial variability over the length scales of general circulation model (GCM) grid areas (approx 100 km ), and the functions relating evapotranspiration and photosynthetic rate to local-scale (approx 1 m) soil wetness are highly non-linear. Soil respiration is also highly dependent on very small-scale variations in soil wetness. We therefore expect significant inaccuracies whenever we insert a single grid area-average soil wetness value into a function to calculate any of these rates for the grid area. For the particular case of evapotranspiration., this method - use of a grid-averaged soil wetness value - can also provoke severe oscillations in the evapotranspiration rate and soil wetness under some conditions. A method is presented whereby the probability distribution timction(pdf) for soil wetness within a grid area is represented by binning. and numerical integration of the binned pdf is performed to provide a spatially-integrated wetness stress term for the whole grid area, which then permits calculation of grid area fluxes in a single operation. The method is very accurate when 10 or more bins are used, can deal realistically with spatially variable precipitation, conserves moisture exactly and allows for precise modification of the soil wetness pdf after every time step. The method could also be applied to other ecological problems where small-scale processes must be area-integrated, or upscaled, to estimate fluxes over large areas, for example in treatments of the terrestrial carbon budget or trace gas generation.

Sellers, Piers↗

Characterization of Deficiencies in the Frequency Domain Forced Response Analysis Technique for Supersonic Turbine Bladed Disks

Turbine blades in rocket and jet engine turbomachinery experience enormous harmonic loading conditions. These loads result from the integer number of upstream and downstream stator vanes as well as the other turbine stages. Assessing the blade structural integrity is a complex task requiring an initial characterization of whether resonance is possible and then performing a forced response analysis if that condition is met. The standard technique for forced response analysis in rocket engine turbines is to decompose a computational fluid dynamics (CFD).generated flow field into its harmonic components, and to then perform a frequency response analysis at the problematic natural frequencies using cyclically symmetric structural dynamic models. Recent CFD analysis and water-flow testing at NASA/MSFC, though, indicates that this technique may miss substantial harmonic and non ]harmonic excitation sources that become present in complex flows. This complex content can only be captured by a CFD flow field encompassing at least an entire revolution. A substantial development effort to create a series of software programs to enable application of the 360 degree forcing function in a frequency response analysis on cyclic symmetric models has been completed (to be described in a future paper), but the question still remains whether the frequency response analysis itself is capable of capturing the excitation content sufficiently. Two studies comparing frequency response analysis with transient response analysis, therefore, of bladed-disks undergoing this complex flow environment have been performed. The first is of a bladed disk with each blade modeled by simple beam elements and the disk modeled with plates (using the finite element code MSC/NASTRAN). The focus of this model is to be representative of response of realistic bladed disks, and so the dimensions are roughly equivalent to the new J2X rocket engine 1st stage fuel pump turbine. The simplicity of the model allows the CFD load to be able to be readily applied, along with analytical and experimental variations in both the temporal and spatial fourier components of the excitation. In addition, this model is a first step in identifying response differences between transient and frequency forced response analysis techniques. The second phase assesses this difference for a much more realistic solid model of a bladed-disk in order to evaluate the effect of the spatial variation in loading on blade dominated modes. Neither research on the accuracy of the frequency response method when used in this context or a comprehensive study of the effect of test-observed variation on blade forced response have been found in the literature, so this research is a new contribution to practical structural dynamic analysis of gas turbines. The primary excitation of the upstream nozzles interacts with the blades on fuel pump of the J2X causes the 5th Nodal diameter modes to be excited, as explained by Tyler and Sofrin1, so a modal analysis was first performed on the beam/plate model and the 5ND bladed-disk mode at 40167 hz was identified and chosen to be the one excited at resonance (see figure 1). The first forced response analysis with this model focuses on identifying differences between frequency and transient response analyses. A hypothesis going into the analysis was that perhaps the frequency response was enforcing a temporal periodicity that did not really exist, and so therefore it would overestimate the response. As high dynamic response was a considerable source of stress in the J2X, examining this concept could potentially be beneficial for the program.

Brown, Andrew M.↗

Mobile Lid Convection Beneath Enceladus' South Polar Terrain

Enceladus' south polar region has a large heat flux, 55-110 milliwatts per square meter (or higher), that is spatially associated with cryovolcanic and tectonic activity. Tidal dissipation and vigorous convection in the underlying ice shell are possible sources of heat; however, prior predictions of the heat flux carried by stagnant lid convection range from F(sub conv) ~15 to 30 milliwatts per square meter, too low to explain the observed heat flux. The high heat flux and increased cryovolcanic and tectonic activity suggest that near-surface ice in the region has become rheologically and mechanically weakened enough to permit convective plumes to reach close to the surface. If the yield strength of Enceladus' lithosphere is less than ~1-10 kPa, convection may instead occur in the mobile lid" regime, which is characterized by large heat fluxes and large horizontal velocities in the near-surface ice. I show that model ice shells with effective surface viscosities between 10(exp 16) and 10(exp 17) Pa s and basal viscosities between 10(exp 13) and 10(exp 15) Pa s have convective heat fluxes comparable to that observed by the Cassini Composite Infrared Spectrometer. If this style of convection is occurring, the south polar terrain should be spreading horizontally with v~1-10 millimeter per year and should be resurfaced in ~0.1-10 Ma. On the basis of Cassini imaging data, the south polar terrain is ~0.5 Ma old, consistent with the mobile lid hypothesis. Maxwell viscoelastic tidal dissipation in such ice shells is not capable of generating enough heat to balance convective heat transport. However, tidal heat may also be generated in the near-surface along faults as suggested by Nimmo et al. and/or viscous dissipation within the ice shell may occur by other processes not accounted for by the canonical Maxwell dissipation model.

Barr, Amy C.↗

A Study of the Non-Thermal X-ray Emission of Shell-Type Supernova Remnants

The term of the forth year of the award is the period from March 15, 2003 to March 14, 2004. During this year, Dr. Thomas Pannuti, who had been performing most of the analyses, made a transition to a new position at Caltech. As of September 2003, Dr. Michael Stage began performing most of the analyses. Dr. Stage has begun constructing a detailed catalog of the spatial and spectral properties of young supernova remnants as described in sections 1 and 4 of the proposal. Specifically, he has focused on the analysis of Chandra ACIS data. The exquisite spatial resolution of the Chandra telescope and the modest spectral resolution of the CCDs make these data ideal. Dr. Stage has developed a standard set of procedures to reduce the data, generate telescope and detector response libraries and handle instrumental and celestial background subtraction. He has also adapted some existing code to automate spectral extraction and fitting. This code enables us to analyze the spectra of tens of thousands of small subregions of supernova remnants. Dr. Stage has recently applied this process to ACIS data for the supernova remnants Cas A and Kepler. The results include maps of the fitted parameters, such as individual line intensities and centroids (i.e. Doppler shifts), the electron temperature, and the absorption column density. These maps are more accurate than simple energy-cut images because it is difficult (and sometimes impossible) to cleanly separate the line emission from the underlying continuum (especially at low energies). It is now possible to identify the locations at which emission from each element is produced. Some of the elements are seen to be layered. The electron temperature maps demonstrate that the outer edges of Cas A and Kepler are very hot with weak lines. This emission is almost certainly synchrotron dominated. Therefore, not only are the maps interesting in and of themselves, but they also provide an unbiased means of easily identifying features in the remnants that can be studied in more detail using, for example, synchrotron models. Over the next year, Dr. Stage will refine the analysis procedures, expand the analyses to include several other remnants, present the results at major scientific conferences and publish a catalog of the results. Since this work is producing impressive results, we have applied for very long Chandra observations of Kepler and Tycho to obtain enough counts to take lull advantage of the technique. A i Ms observation of Cas A is already scheduled. Over the past year, I completed a joint, spectra,l analysis of some X-ray, radio, and gamma-ray data for the supernova remnant SN 1006. The results of this analysis show that the synchrotron and, hence, electron spectrum of the remnant is curved. The amount of curvature in the electron spectrum is quantitatively consistent with predictions of the amount of curvature in the proton spectrum of the remnant. A paper describing this work is nearly complete. When Dr. Pannuti left, he was analyzing X-ray data for the young supernova remnant G266.2-1.2. Dr. Pannuti found the first evidence of thermal X-ray emission from this remnant. Furthermore, like SN 1006, the cutoff frequency varies with azimuth along the bright northeastern rim. This work will be published during the coming year.

Allen, Glenn E.↗

Modeling and Prediction of Wildfire Hazard in Southern California, Integration of Models with Imaging Spectrometry

Large urban wildfires throughout southern California have caused billions of dollars of damage and significant loss of life over the last few decades. Rapid urban growth along the wildland interface, high fuel loads and a potential increase in the frequency of large fires due to climatic change suggest that the problem will worsen in the future. Improved fire spread prediction and reduced uncertainty in assessing fire hazard would be significant, both economically and socially. Current problems in the modeling of fire spread include the role of plant community differences, spatial heterogeneity in fuels and spatio-temporal changes in fuels. In this research, we evaluated the potential of Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) and Airborne Synthetic Aperture Radar (AIRSAR) data for providing improved maps of wildfire fuel properties. Analysis concentrated in two areas of Southern California, the Santa Monica Mountains and Santa Barbara Front Range. Wildfire fuel information can be divided into four basic categories: fuel type, fuel load (live green and woody biomass), fuel moisture and fuel condition (live vs senesced fuels). To map fuel type, AVIRIS data were used to map vegetation species using Multiple Endmember Spectral Mixture Analysis (MESMA) and Binary Decision Trees. Green live biomass and canopy moisture were mapped using AVIRIS through analysis of the 980 nm liquid water absorption feature and compared to alternate measures of moisture and field measurements. Woody biomass was mapped using L and P band cross polarimetric data acquired in 1998 and 1999. Fuel condition was mapped using spectral mixture analysis to map green vegetation (green leaves), nonphotosynthetic vegetation (NPV; stems, wood and litter), shade and soil. Summaries describing the potential of hyperspectral and SAR data for fuel mapping are provided by Roberts et al. and Dennison et al. To utilize remotely sensed data to assess fire hazard, fuel-type maps were translated into standard fuel models accessible to the FARSITE fire spread simulator. The FARSITE model and BEHAVE are considered industry standards for fire behavior analysis. Anderson level fuels map, generated using a binary decision tree classifier are available for multiple dates in the Santa Monica Mountains and at least one date for Santa Barbara. Fuel maps that will fill in the areas between Santa Barbara and the Santa Monica Mountains study sites are in progress, as part of a NASA Regional Earth Science Application Center, the Southern California Wildfire Hazard Center. Species-level maps, were supplied to fire managing agencies (Los Angeles County Fire, California Department of Forestry). Research results were published extensively in the refereed and non-refereed literature. Educational outreach included funding of several graduate students, undergraduate intern training and an article featured in the California Alliance for Minorities Program (CAMP) Quarterly Journal.

Roberts, Dar A.↗