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At least 829 records · Page 46

Interparameter trade-off quantification and reduction in isotropic-elastic full-waveform inversion: synthetic experiments and Hussar land data set application

The problem of inverting for multiple physical parameters in the subsurface using seismic full-waveform inversion (FWI) is complicated by interparameter trade-off arising from inherent ambiguities between different physical parameters. Parameter resolution is often characterized using scattering radiation patterns, but these neglect some important aspects of interparameter trade-off. More general analysis and mitigation of interparameter trade-off in isotropic-elastic FWI is possible through judiciously chosen multiparameter Hessian matrix-vector products. We show that products of multiparameter Hessian off-diagonal blocks with model perturbation vectors, referred to as interparameter contamination kernels , are central to the approach. We then apply the multiparameter Hessian to various vectors designed to provide information regarding the strengths and characteristics of interparameter contamination, both locally and within the whole volume. With numerical experiments, we observe that S-wave velocity perturbations introduce strong contaminations into density and phase-reversed contaminations into P-wave velocity, but themselves experience only limited contaminations from other parameters. Based on these findings, we introduce a novel strategy to mitigate the influence of interparameter trade-off with approximate contamination kernels. Furthermore, we recommend that the local spatial and interparameter trade-off of the inverted models be quantified using extended multiparameter point spread functions (EMPSFs) obtained with pre-conditioned conjugate-gradient algorithm. Compared to traditional point spread functions, the EMPSFs appear to provide more accurate measurements for resolution analysis, by de-blurring the estimations, scaling magnitudes and mitigating interparameter contamination. Approximate eigenvalue volumes constructed with stochastic probing approach are proposed to evaluate the resolution of the inverted models within the whole model. With a synthetic Marmousi model example and a land seismic field data set from Hussar, Alberta, Canada, we confirm that the new inversion strategy suppresses the interparameter contamination effectively and provides more reliable density estimations in isotropic-elastic FWI as compared to standard simultaneous inversion approach.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Rare-event Simulation for Stochastic Korteweg-de Vries Equation

An asymptotic analysis of the tail probabilities for the dynamics of a soliton wave $U(x,t)$ under a stochastic time-dependent force is developed. The dynamics of the soliton wave $U(x,t)$ is described by the Korteweg-de Vries Equation with homogeneous Dirichlet boundary conditions under a stochastic time-dependent force, which is modeled as a time-dependent Gaussian noise with amplitude $\epsilon$. The tail probability we considered is $w(b) :=P(\sup_{t\in [0,T]} U(x,t) > b ),$ as $b\rightarrow \infty,$ for some constant $T>0$ and a fixed $x$, which can be interpreted as tail probability of the amplitude of water wave on shallow surface of a fluid or long internal wave in a density-stratified ocean. Our goal is to characterize the asymptotic behaviors of $w(b)$ and to evaluate the tail probability of the event that the soliton wave exceeds a certain threshold value under a random force term. Such rare-event calculation of $w(b)$ is very useful for fast estimation of the risk of the potential damage that could caused by the water wave in a density-stratified ocean modeled by the stochastic KdV equation. In this work, the asymptotic approximation of the probability that the soliton wave exceeds a high-level $b$ is derived. In addition, we develop a provably efficient rare-event simulation algorithm to compute $w(b)$. The efficiency of the algorithm only requires mild conditions and therefore it is applicable to a general class of Gaussian processes and many diverse applications.

Xu, Gongjun↗

Investigations of Beam Dynamics Issues at Current and Future Hadron Accelerators (Final Report)

There is a synergy between the fields of Beam Dynamics (BD) in modern particle accelerators and Applied Mathematics (AMa). We have formulated significant problems in BD and have developed and applied tools within the contexts of dynamical systems, topological methods, numerical analysis and scientific computing, probability and stochastic processes, and mathematical statistics. We summarize the three main areas of our AMa work since 2011. First, we continued our study of Vlasov-Maxwell systems. Previously, we developed a state of the art algorithm and code (VM3@A) to calculate coherent synchrotron radiation in single pass systems. In this cycle we carefully analyzed the major expense, namely the integral-over-history (IOH), and developed two approaches to speed up integration. The first strategy uses a representation of the Bessel function J0 in terms of exponentials. The second relies on “local sequences” developed recently for radiation boundary conditions, which are used to reduce computational domains. Although motivated by practicality, both strategies involve interesting and rather deep analysis and approximation theory. As an alternative to VM3@A, we are integrating Maxwell’s equations by a time-stepping method, bypass- ing the IOH, using a Discontinuous Galerkin (DG) method. DG is a generalization of Finite Element and Finite Volume methods. It is spectrally convergent, unlike the commonly used Finite Difference methods, and can handle complicated vacuum chamber geometries. We have applied this in several contexts and have obtained very nice results including an explanation of an experiment at the Canadian Light Source, where the geometry is quite complex. Second, we continued our study of spin dynamics in storage rings. There is much current and proposed activity where spin polarized beams are being used in testing the Standard Model and its modifications. Our work has focused on invariant spin fields (ISFs) and amplitude dependent spin tunes (ADSTs), which are essential for estimating beam polarization. Several algorithms have been developed since the 1980s for computing the ISF, among them the Heinemann- Hoffstaetter method of stroboscopic averaging (SA) which is implemented in the code SPRINT. SA, which computes the ISF by using spin tracking data, can find the ISF to computer precision if it exists and thus can give evidence for existence of the ISF. Central to our work is resolving the ISF conjecture, which says that, off orbital resonance, an ISF exists. Thus Heinemann developed, in his 2010 PhD thesis, a new framework which unifies and generalizes the notions of ISF and ADST by using bundle theory. This lead to a long paper which was a major collaborative effort during the recent cycle. In a nutshell, our bundle approach elegantly unifies the dynamics of spin-1/2 and spin-1 particles, e.g., protons and deuterons. In fact it is well known that these two kinds of dynamics are driven by the same spin transfer matrix and in our approach one sees the deeper reason for this: the spin transfer matrix carries the natural dynamics of a principal bundle whereas the difference between the spin-1/2 and spin-1 dynamics lies in their different geometrical situation, i.e., different underlying associated bundles. Thus one arrives at new results for polarized beams, among them the Invariant Reduction Theorem (IRT) and the Cross Section Theorem (CST). The IRT gives a necessary and sufficient condition for the ISF to exist. The SA technique revealed, 20 years ago, that each ISF can be viewed as a complex agglomerate of spin tracking data. The bundle approach goes one step further by using the IRT and the CST to glue spin tracking data into agglomerates which are candidates for ISFs. We gain insight because the “good” agglomerates, in the presence of an ISF, are very different from the “bad” ones. Finally we mention that the bundle approach has analogies to the approach used in geometrical Yang-Mills theory. Third, we studied X-Ray Free Electron Lasers (FELs), which are electron accelerators producing coherent undulator radiation over a wide range of frequencies from microwaves to x-rays. The photon beams produced in FEL undulators are used to study material samples in biology, material science etc. We developed a mathematical analysis, based on the 6D Lorentz system, of energetic electrons moving through a planar undulator excited by a Maxwell traveling wave field of wavelength λ. Our Method of Averaging perturbation analysis yields non-resonant and near-to-resonant normal form approximations as a function of λ, which we present in two averaging theorems. We prove the theorems in detail, error bounds and giving a tutorial on mathematically rigorous perturbation theory in a context where proofs are easily understood. To our knowledge the planar problem has not been analyzed with the generality here nor has the standard FEL pendulum system, which appears on resonance, been derived with error bounds. In addition to the domains of validity of the normal forms we obtain new insights that require further study, including a more general low gain theory. With a firm foundation in the non-collective case above we are studying the 3D collective case from start up from noise to high gain and saturation. We have formulated the noise start up as a problem of going from the microscopic Klimontovich-Maxwell to the macroscopic Vlasov-Maxwell with a Vlasov correction term. In the 1D setting, we seek an alternative to the phenomenological Vlasov approach which models shot noise by a perturbation on an initial “smooth” density. The 1D wave equation with a Klimontovich source is often the starting point for the 1D FEL high gain theory. We have a new representation of solutions which may lead to new insights.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Robust implementation of generative modeling with parametrized quantum circuits

Although the performance of hybrid quantum-classical algorithms is highly dependent on the selection of the classical optimizer and the circuit ansätze, a robust and thorough assessment on-hardware of such features has been missing to date. From the optimizer perspective, the primary challenge lies in the solver’s stochastic nature, and their significant variance over the random initialization. Therefore, a robust comparison requires one to perform several training curves for each solver before one can reach conclusions about their typical performance. Since each of the training curves requires the execution of thousands of quantum circuits in the quantum computer, such a robust study remained a steep challenge for most hybrid platforms available today. In this work, we leverage on Rigetti’s Quantum Cloud Services (QCS™) to overcome this implementation barrier, and we study the on-hardware performance of the data-driven quantum circuit learning (DDQCL) for three different state-of-the-art classical solvers, and on two-different circuit ansätze associated to different entangling connectivity graphs for the same task. Additionally, we assess the gains in performance from varying circuit depths. To evaluate the typical performance associated with each of these settings in this benchmark study, we use at least five independent runs of DDQCL towards the generation of quantum generative models capable of capturing the patterns of the canonical Bars and Stripes dataset. In this experimental benchmarking, the gradient-free optimization algorithms show an outstanding performance compared to the gradient-based solver. In particular, one of them had better performance when handling the unavoidable noisy objective function to be minimized under experimental conditions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

GPS Spoofing Mitigation and Timing Risk Analysis in Networked Phasor Measurement Units via Stochastic Reachability

To address phasor measurement unit (PMU) vulnerability to spoofing, we propose the use of a set-valued state estimation technique known as stochastic reachability (SR)-based distributed Kalman filter (DKF) that computes secure global positioning system (GPS) timing across a network of receivers. Utilizing SR, we estimate not only GPS time but also its stochastic reachable set, which is parameterized by probabilistic zonotope (p-Zonotope). While requiring known measurement error bounds in only non-spoofed conditions, we designed a two-tiered approach. We first performed measurement-level spoofing mitigation via deviation of a measurement innovation from its expected p-Zonotope. We then performed state-level timing risk analysis via a determination of the intersection probability of the estimated p-Zonotope with an unsafe set that violates IEEE C37.118.1a-2014 standards. Finally, we validated our SR-DKF algorithm by subjecting it to a simulated receiver network to coordinate signal-level spoofing. We demonstrate improved timing accuracy and successful spoofing mitigation via the use of our SR-DKF algorithm. We also validated the robustness of the estimated timing risk as the number of receivers were varied.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Evaluation of Hybrid FPOG Applications in Regulated and Deregulated Markets Using HERON

Recent changes in the U.S. energy market, such as low natural gas prices and increased electricity production for variable renewable energy (VRE) sources, have led to an economic crisis for existing light-water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plants (NPP). Many owners and operators of LWRs have elected to decommission these plants rather than continue using them as consistent sources of clean baseload power. This has led to exploration of various possibilities to increase the economic viability of these units, including market restructuring to monetize benefits LWRs already provide to the grid through ancillary markets, load following and economic dispatch, and possible integration of secondary systems directly to the NPP for production of additional products through technologies such as hydrogen electrolysis or water desalination. Previous studies have considered the technologies associated with these Integrated Energy Systems (IES) activities, and the analysis of markets for these secondary products. To analyze the economic viability of various system configurations including IES, especially given the uncertainty surrounding load demand, electricity prices, and the availability of VRE resources, the stochastic technoeconomic analysis package HERON (Heuristic Energy Resource Optimization Network) was released earlier this year as an extension of the risk analysis framework RAVEN (Risk Analysis Virtual Environment). HERON focuses foremost on making the complex uncertainty quantification analysis tools approachable for energy systems analysts, also providing general dispatch optimization algorithms for those workflows. HERON continues to be improved and tested as a significant part of the IES viability analyses performed in this work. HERON is not a capacity expansion model. To consider market and grid energy system development in a variety of scenarios, HERON is best used in coupling with modelling tools such as US-REGEN, which sacrifice some of the uncertainty analysis and resolution of HERON's modelling for the ability to efficiently predict the change in the grid energy system's profile due to economic drivers over decades. HERON can then use this information to explore the economic viability of introducing changes to the predicted outcomes, such as the introduction of an IES. In this work, experts at EPRI using US-REGEN provide six projection scenarios for use in HERON stochastic technoeconomic analysis (STEA) in considering the options available for increasing LWR economic viability through introduction of a hydrogen-centric IES using a high-temperature steam electrolysis plant (HTSE), hydrogen storage, and a constant-rate contracted hydrogen consumer. The results obtained are differential in nature; they do not report expected profits for any configuration, but rather report on the possible increase in the NPV of a configuration with respect to a baseline no-IES configuration. Due to the uncertainty captured in the variable net load of the systems, there is likewise uncertainty in the mean values reported. We consider this viability both in terms of a regulated market, where the energy producers and IES are owned and operated by single entity, as well as a deregulated market, where the IES chooses its bid for electricity generation and is then dispatched by the grid system operator. Results indicate that for deregulated markets, the inclusion of the IES is often statistically beneficial. This is especially true in policies that are not favorable towards nuclear, as nuclear is less often dispatched and is forced to deal with frequent idle capacity. In the nominal case as well as the case of carbon tax policies, inclusion of the IES clearly benefited the economic performance of the NPP. In the regulated case, however, there was a trend towards minimizing the IES, likely due to the optimal sizing performed by US-REGEN of the NPP within the system as well as the lack of penalty for idle capacity at the NPP in the regulated market analyses.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Analysis of gene expression levels in individual bacterial cells without image segmentation

Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We present a method for extracting gene expression data from images of bacterial cells. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The method does not employ cell segmentation and does not require high magnification. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Fluorescence and phase contrast images of the cells are correlated through the physics of phase contrast. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We demonstrate the method by characterizing noisy expression of comX in Streptococcus mutans. -- Abstract: Studies of stochasticity in gene expression typically make use of fluorescent protein reporters, which permit the measurement of expression levels within individual cells by fluorescence microscopy. Analysis of such microscopy images is almost invariably based on a segmentation algorithm, where the image of a cell or cluster is analyzed mathematically to delineate individual cell boundaries. However segmentation can be ineffective for studying bacterial cells or clusters, especially at lower magnification, where outlines of individual cells are poorly resolved. Here we demonstrate an alternative method for analyzing such images without segmentation. The method employs a comparison between the pixel brightness in phase contrast vs fluorescence microscopy images. By fitting the correlation between phase contrast and fluorescence intensity to a physical model, we obtain well-defined estimates for the different levels of gene expression that are present in the cell or cluster. The method reveals the boundaries of the individual cells, even if the source images lack the resolution to show these boundaries clearly.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

A dynamical polynomial chaos approach for long-time evolution of SPDEs

We propose a Dynamical generalized Polynomial Chaos (DgPC) method to solve time-dependent stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) with white noise forcing. The long-time simulation of SPDE solutions by Polynomial Chaos (PC) methods is notoriously difficult as the dimension of the stochastic variables increases linearly with time. Exploiting the Markovian property of white noise, DgPC implements a restart procedure that allows us to expand solutions at future times in terms of orthogonal polynomials of the measure describing the solution at a given time and the future white noise. The dimension of the representation is kept minimal by application of a Karhunen–Loeve (KL) expansion. Using frequent restarts and low degree polynomials on sparse multi-index sets, the method allows us to perform long time simulations, including the calculation of invariant measures for systems which possess one. We apply the method to the numerical simulation of stochastic Burgers and Navier–Stokes equations with white noise forcing. Our method also allows us to incorporate time-independent random coefficients such as a random viscosity. We propose several numerical simulations and show that the algorithm compares favorably with standard Monte Carlo methods.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Testing of Strategies for the Acceleration of the Cost Optimization

The general problem addressed in the Nuclear-Renewable Hybrid Energy System (N-R HES) project is finding the optimum economical dispatch (ED) and capacity planning solutions for the hybrid energy systems. In the present test-problem configuration, the N-R HES unit is composed of three electrical power-generating components, i.e. the Balance of Plant (BOP), the Secondary Energy Source (SES), and the Energy Storage (ES). In addition, there is an Industrial Process (IP), which is devoted to hydrogen generation. At this preliminary stage, the goal is to find the power outputs of each one of the N-R HES unit components (BOP, SES, ES) and the IP hydrogen production level that maximizes the unit profit by simultaneously satisfying individual component operational constraints. The optimization problem is meant to be solved in the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) framework. The dynamic response of the N-R HES unit components is simulated by using dedicated object-oriented models written in the Modelica modeling language. Though this code coupling provides for very accurate predictions, the ensuing optimization problem is characterized by a very large number of solution variables. To ease the computational burden and to improve the path to a converged solution, a method to better estimate the initial guess for the optimization problem solution was developed. The proposed approach led to the definition of a suitable Monte Carlo-based optimization algorithm (called the preconditioner), which provides an initial guess for the optimal N-R HES power dispatch and the optimal installed capacity for each one of the unit components. The preconditioner samples a set of stochastic power scenarios for each one of the N-R HES unit components, and then for each of them the corresponding value of a suitably defined cost function is evaluated. After having simulated a sufficient number of power histories, the configuration which ensures the highest profit is selected as the optimal one. The component physical dynamics are represented through suitable ramp constraints, which considerably simplify the numerical solving. In order to test the capabilities of the proposed approach, in the present report, the dispatch problem only is tackled, i.e. a reference unit configuration is assumed, and each one of the N-R HES unit components is assumed to have a fixed installed capacity. As for the next steps, the main improvement will concern the operation strategy of the ES facility. In particular, in order to describe a more realistic battery commitment strategy, the ES operation will be regulated according to the electricity price forecasts.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Optimizing Power Line Undergrounding Decisions under Varying Wildfire Risk and Weather Scenarios

Abstract—The threat of wildfire ignitions from electric power equipment has led utilities to increasingly turn to preemptive power shutoffs, which, while effective in reducing grid-induced wildfire risk, can cause significant load loss. Undergrounding power lines is an alternative strategy for preventing grid-induced wildfires. However, undergrounding lines is costly, so an efficient undergrounding plan must balance reductions in wildfire risk and load loss with the cost of undergrounding lines. We propose a robust optimization model to identify which power lines to underground to maximize load served while limiting wildfire risk across a range of wildfire risk and weather scenarios. Since solving this problem may be computationally heavy for large power grids and many operating scenarios, we present a delayed constraint generation algorithm to iteratively add scenarios until an optimal solution is found. We evaluate the performance of this framework on the RTS-GMLC with scenarios representing a year of operating conditions and compare it with a stochastic programming formulation. Our results indicate that our undergrounding model is successful in reducing load shed and risk compared to baseline cases in which no mitigation action is taken and only power shutoffs are implemented (no undergrounding). The robust formulation also reduces more load shed than the stochastic formulation in the most extreme scenarios. Index Terms—grid resilience, optimization, transmission systems, underground power lines, wildfire risk.

Taylor, S. [Department of Electrical and Computer ↗

Application of Sequential Design of Experiments (SDoE) to Large Pilot-Scale Solvent-Based CO2 Capture Process at Technology Centre Mongstad (TCM)

The United States Department of Energy’s Carbon Capture Simulation for Industry Impact (CCSI2) program has developed a framework for sequential design of experiments (SDoE) that aims to maximize knowledge gained from budget- and schedule-limited pilot scale testing. SDoE was applied to the planning and execution of campaigns for testing CO2 capture systems at pilot-scale in order to optimally allocate resources available for the testing. In this methodology, a stochastic process model is developed by quantifying the parametric uncertainty in submodels of interest; for a solvent-based CO2 capture system, these may include physical properties and equipment performance submodels (e.g., mass transfer, interfacial area). This uncertainty is propagated through the full process model, over variable operating conditions, for estimating the resulting uncertainty in key model outputs (e.g., percentage of CO2 capture, solvent regeneration energy requirement). In developing a data collection plan, the predicted output uncertainty is incorporated into an algorithm that seeks simultaneously to select process operating conditions for which the predicted uncertainty is relatively high and to ensure that the entire space of operation is well represented. This test plan is then used to guide operation of the pilot plant at varying steady-state conditions, with resulting process data incorporated into the existing model using Bayesian inference to refine parameter distributions. The updated stochastic model, with reduced parametric uncertainty from data collected, is then used to guide additional data collection, thus the sequential nature of the experimental design. The SDoE process was implemented at the pilot test unit (12 MWe in scale) at Norway’s Technology Centre Mongstad (TCM) in a summer 2018 test campaign with aqueous monoethanolamine (MEA). During the test campaign, the varied operating conditions included the flowrates of circulated solvent, flue gas, and reboiler steam and the CO2 concentration in the flue gas. The process data were used to update probability distributions of mass transfer and interfacial area parameters of a stochastic process model developed by the CCSI2 team. Two iterations of the SDoE process were executed, resulting in the uncertainty in model predicted CO2 capture percentage decreasing by an average of 58.0 ± 4.7% over the full input space of interest. This work demonstrates the potential of the SDoE process for model refinement through reduction in process model parametric uncertainty, and ultimately risk in scale-up, in CO2 capture technology performance.

carbon capture↗

Bayesian inference of nonlinear unsteady aerodynamics from aeroelastic limit cycle oscillations

A Bayesian model selection and parameter estimation algorithm is applied to investigate the influence of nonlinear and unsteady aerodynamic loads on the limit cycle oscillation (LCO) of a pitching airfoil in the transitional Reynolds number regime. At small angles of attack, laminar boundary layer trailing edge separation causes negative aerodynamic damping leading to the LCO. The fluid–structure interaction of the rigid, but elastically mounted, airfoil and nonlinear unsteady aerodynamics is represented by two coupled nonlinear stochastic ordinary differential equations containing uncertain parameters and model approximation errors. Several plausible aerodynamic models with increasing complexity are proposed to describe the aeroelastic system leading to LCO. The likelihood in the posterior parameter probability density function (pdf) is available semi-analytically using the extended Kalman filter for the state estimation of the coupled nonlinear structural and unsteady aerodynamic model. The posterior parameter pdf is sampled using a parallel and adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. The posterior probability of each model is estimated using the Chib–Jeliazkov method that directly uses the posterior MCMC samples for evidence (marginal likelihood) computation. The Bayesian algorithm is validated through a numerical study and then applied to model the nonlinear unsteady aerodynamic loads using wind-tunnel test data at various Reynolds numbers.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Stochastic reconstruction and microstructure modeling of SMC chopped fiber composites

Here, to establish an integrated Processing-Microstructure-Property workflow for the prediction of material behaviors, this paper presents a new stochastic pseudo-3D microstructure reconstruction method for Sheet Molding Compounds (SMC) chopped fiber composites. The proposed method captures the bi-level microstructural features of SMC composites. At the higher level, a Voronoi diagram-based algorithm is developed to reconstruct the unique substructure features of SMC fiber tows. The geometry of Voronoi cells is adjusted by a Simulated Annealing (SA) algorithm to match the geometrical statistics of the real fiber tows. At the lower level, the algorithm assigns fiber orientation to each Voronoi cell (which represents a fiber tow). The fiber orientation angles are recovered from a statistical fiber orientation tensor. The proposed method is employed to establish a multi-layer pseudo-3D SMC Representative Volume Element (RVE) model for Finite Element Analysis (FEA) of SMC microstructure. This model enables the prediction of mechanical properties based on the material processing information (e.g. fiber orientation tensor obtained from compression molding simulation), and the microstructure information obtained from microscopic imaging for an SMC composite. Lastly, the predicted properties are successfully validated by experimental tensile tests.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A hybrid approach to the neutron transport K-eigenvalue problem using NDA-based algorithms

In order to provide more physically accurate solutions to the neutron transport equation it has become increasingly popular to use Monte Carlo simulation to model nuclear reactor dynamics. These Monte Carlo methods can be extremely expensive, so we turn to a class of methods known as hybrid methods, which combine known deterministic and stochastic techniques to solve the transport equation. In our work, we show that we can simulate the action of a transport sweep using a Monte Carlo simulation in order to solve the k-eigenvalue problem. We'll accelerate the solution using nonlinear diffusion acceleration (NDA) as in [1,2]. Our work extends the results in [1] to use Monte Carlo simulation as the high-order solver. (authors)

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Optimizing Service Restoration in Distribution Systems With Uncertain Repair Time and Demand

This paper proposes a novel method to co-optimize the distribution system operation and repair crew routing for outage restoration after extreme weather events. A two-stage stochastic mixed integer linear program is developed. The first stage is to dispatch the repair crews to the damaged components. The second stage is distribution system restoration using distributed generators, and reconfiguration. We consider demand uncertainty in terms of a truncated normal forecast error distribution, and model the uncertainty of the repair time using a lognormal distribution. A new decomposition approach, combined with the progressive hedging algorithm, is developed for solving large-scale outage management problems in an effective and timely manner. Furthermore, the proposed method is validated on modified IEEE 34- and 8500-bus distribution test systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Adaptive mitigation of time-varying quantum noise

Current quantum computers suffer from non-stationary noise channels with high error rates, which undermines their reliability and reproducibility. We propose a Bayesian inference based adaptive algorithm that can learn and mitigate quantum noise in response to changing channel conditions. Our study emphasizes the need for dynamic inference of critical channel parameters to improve program accuracy. We use the Dirichlet distribution to model the stochasticity of the Pauli channel. This allows us to perform Bayesian inference, which can improve the performance of probabilistic error cancellation (PEC) under time-varying noise. Our work demonstrates the importance of characterizing and mitigating temporal variations in quantum noise, which is crucial for developing more accurate and reliable quantum technologies. Our results demonstrate that Bayesian PEC can outperform non-adaptive approaches by a factor of 4.5x when measured using Hellinger distance from the ideal distribution.

Dasgupta, Samudra↗

Fiber Bundle Morphisms as a Framework for Modeling Many-to-Many Maps

While it is not generally reflected in the `nice' datasets used for benchmarking machine learning algorithms, the real-world is full of processes that would be best described as many-to-many. That is, a single input can potentially yield many different outputs (whether due to noise, imperfect measurement, or intrinsic stochasticity in the process) and many different inputs can yield the same output (that is, the map is not injective). For example, imagine a sentiment analysis task where, due to linguistic ambiguity, a single statement can have a range of different sentiment interpretations while at the same time many distinct statements can represent the same sentiment. When modeling such a multivalued function $f: X \rightarrow Y$, it is frequently useful to be able to model the distribution on $f(x)$ for specific input $x$ as well as the distribution on fiber $f^{-1}(y)$ for specific output $y$. Such an analysis helps the user (i) better understand the variance intrinsic to the process they are studying and (ii) understand the range of specific input $x$ that can be used to achieve output $y$. Following existing work which used a fiber bundle framework to better model many-to-one processes we describe how morphisms of fiber bundles provide a template for building models which naturally capture the structure of many-to-many processes.

Coda, Elizabeth D.↗

Resilience-Oriented DG Siting and Sizing Considering Stochastic Scenario Reduction

In this paper, a fuel-based distributed generator (DG) allocation strategy is proposed to enhance the distribution system resilience against extreme weather. The long-term planning problem is formulated as a two-stage stochastic mixed-integer programming (SMIP). The first stage is to make decisions of DG siting and sizing under the given budget constraint. In the second stage, a post-extreme-event-restoration (PEER) is employed to minimize the operating cost in an uncertain fault scenario. In particular, this study proposes a method to select the most representative scenarios for the SMIP. First, a Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) is introduced to generate sufficient scenarios considering random fault locations and load profiles. Then, the number of scenarios is reduced by the K-means clustering algorithm. The advantage of scenario reduction is to make a trade-off between accuracy and computational efficiency. Finally, the SMIP is solved by the progressive hedging algorithm. Here, the case studies of the IEEE 33-bus and 123-bus test systems demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm in reducing the expected energy not served (EENS), which is a critical criterion of resilience.

42 ENGINEERING↗