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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2016

Analysis of Application Power and Schedule Composition in a High Performance Computing Environment

As the capacity of high performance computing (HPC) systems continues to grow, small changes in energy management have the potential to produce significant energy savings. In this paper, we employ an extensive informatics system for aggregating and analyzing real-time performance and power use data to evaluate energy footprints of jobs running in an HPC data center. We look at the effects of algorithmic choices for a given job on the resulting energy footprints, and analyze application-specific power consumption, and summarize average power use in the aggregate. All of these views reveal meaningful power variance between classes of applications as well as chosen methods for a given job. Using these data, we discuss energy-aware cost-saving strategies based on reordering the HPC job schedule. Using historical job and power data, we present a hypothetical job schedule reordering that: (1) reduces the facility's peak power draw and (2) manages power in conjunction with a large-scale photovoltaic array. Lastly, we leverage this data to understand the practical limits on predicting key power use metrics at the time of submission.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

In Situ Inference for Earth System Predictability

An understanding of future evolution in precipitation extremes is critical to numerous DOE mission questions. Extreme events are by nature short time-scale events that are difficult to diagnose in available model data. Accurate modeling of extreme events necessarily requires high spatial resolution at the storm scale locally. However, the environment in which storms grow is dependent on global, remote, processes. These complex spatiotemporal relationships are impossible to diagnose at resolutions required to accurately model storms responsible for extreme precipitation. At exascale, climate simulations will produce results at fine enough resolution to investigate these relationships. However, the resulting data from these simulations will be far too large to save for post-simulation analysis. We advocate for fitting statistical models inside the simulations as they run, a context known as in situ, which will facilitate scientific investigations using the full fine-scale data stream. Figure 1 shows an example of the type of model we could consider, a Bayesian hierarchical spatial regression model. Precipitation extremes at each grid cell are modeled using extreme value distributions. Since extremes are rare, fitting models to individual grid cells can result in high variance and poor estimates. Instead, the model can be made more robust by smoothing the parameters of the extreme value model across space. Additionally, the parameters themselves can be functionally linked to other variables elsewhere in the simulation. Thus, we can use the fine-scale data to build more robust models for extremes that link extreme behavior to other climate patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

In Situ Inference for Earth System Predictability

Focal Area: Focal Area 3: Insight gleaned from complex simulated data using AI, big data analytics, and other advanced methods, including explainable AI and physics- or knowledge-guided AI. Science Challenge: An understanding of future evolution in precipitation extremes is critical to numerous DOE mission questions. Extreme events are by nature short time-scale events that are difficult to diagnose in available model data. Accurate modeling of extreme events necessarily requires high spatial resolution at the storm scale locally. However, the environment in which storms grow is dependent on global, remote, processes. These complex spatiotemporal relationships are impossible to diagnose at resolutions required to accurately model storms responsible for extreme precipitation. At exascale, climate simulations will produce results at fine enough resolution to investigate these relationships. However, the resulting data from these simulations will be far too large to save for post-simulation analysis. We advocate for fitting statistical models inside the simulations as they run, a context known as in situ, which will facilitate scientific investigations using the full fine-scale data stream. Figure 1 shows an example of the type of model we could consider, a Bayesian hierarchical spatial regression model. Precipitation extremes at each grid cell are modeled using extreme value distributions. Since extremes are rare, fitting models to individual grid cells can result in high variance and poor estimates. Instead, the model can be made more robust by smoothing the parameters of the extreme value model across space. Additionally, the parameters themselves can be functionally linked to other variables elsewhere in the simulation. Thus, we can use the fine-scale data to build more robust models for extremes that link extreme behavior to other climate patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Genome-Wide Association Study for Identifying Loci that Affect Fillet Yield, Carcass, and Body Weight Traits in Rainbow Trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss)

Fillet yield (FY, %) is an economically-important trait in rainbow trout aquaculture that affects production efficiency. Despite that, FY has received little attention in breeding programs because it is difficult to measure on a large number of fish and cannot be directly measured on breeding candidates. The recent development of a high-density SNP array for rainbow trout has provided the needed tool for studying the underlying genetic architecture of this trait. A genome-wide association study (GWAS) was conducted for FY, body weight at 10 (BW10) and 13 (BW13) months post-hatching, head-off carcass weight (CAR), and fillet weight (FW) in a pedigreed rainbow trout population selectively bred for improved growth performance. The GWAS analysis was performed using the weighted single-step GBLUP method (wssGWAS). Phenotypic records of 1447 fish (1.5 kg at harvest) from 299 full-sib families in three successive generations, of which 875 fish from 196 full-sib families were genotyped, were used in the GWAS analysis. A total of 38,107 polymorphic SNPs were analyzed in a univariate model with hatch year and harvest group as fixed effects, harvest weight as a continuous covariate, and animal and common environment as random effects. A new linkage map was developed to create windows of 20 adjacent SNPs for use in the GWAS. The two windows with largest effect for FY and FW were located on chromosome Omy9 and explained only 1.0–1.5% of genetic variance, thus suggesting a polygenic architecture affected by multiple loci with small effects in this population. One window on Omy5 explained 1.4 and 1.0% of the genetic variance for BW10 and BW13, respectively. Three windows located on Omy27, Omy17, and Omy9 (same window detected for FY) explained 1.7, 1.7, and 1.0%, respectively, of genetic variance for CAR. Among the detected 100 SNPs, 55% were located directly in genes (intron and exons). Nucleotide sequences of intragenic SNPs were blasted to the Mus musculus genome to create a putative gene network. The network suggests that differences in the ability to maintain a proliferative and renewable population of myogenic precursor cells may affect variation in growth and fillet yield in rainbow trout.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

The use of strain tensor to estimate thoracic tumors deformation

Purpose: Respiration-induced kinematics of thoracic tumors suggests a simple analogy with elasticity, where a strain tensor is used to characterize the volume of interests. The application of the biomechanical framework allows for the objective determination of tumor characteristics. Methods: Four-dimensional computed tomography provides the snapshots of the patient's anatomy at the end of inspiration and expiration. Image registration was used to obtain the displacement vector fields and deformation fields, which allows one for the determination of the strain tensor. Its departure from the identity matrix gauges the departure of the medium from rigidity. The tensorial characteristic of each GTV voxel was determined and averaged. To this end, the standard Euclidean matrix norm as well as the Log-Euclidean norm were employed. Tensorial anisotropy was gauged with the fractional anisotropy measure which is based on the normalized variance of the tensors eigenvalues. Anisotropy was also evaluated with the geodesic distance in the Log-Euclidean framework of a given strain tensor to its closest isotropic counterpart. Results: The averaged strain tensor was determined for each of the 15 retrospectively analyzed thoracic GTVs. The amplitude of GTV motion varied from 0.64 to 4.21 with the average of 1.20 cm. The GTV size ranged from 5.16 to 149.99 cc with the average of 43.19 cc. The tensorial analysis shows that deformation is inconsiderable and that the tensorial anisotropy is small. The Log-Euclidean distance of averaged strain tensors from the identity matrix ranged from 0.06 to 0.31 with the average of 0.19. The Frobenius distance from the identity matrix is similar and ranged from 0.06 to 0.35 with the average of 0.21. Their fractional anisotropy ranged from 0.02 to 0.12 with the average of 0.07. Their geodesic anisotropy ranged from 0.03 to 0.16 with the average of 0.09. These values also indicate insignificant deformation. Conclusions: The tensorial framework allows for direct measurements of tissue deformation. It goes beyond the evaluation of deformation via comparison of shapes. It is an independent and objective determination of tissue properties. This methodology can be used to determine possible changes in lung properties due to radiation therapy and possible toxicities.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Self-Consistent Field Methods for Excited States in Strong Magnetic Fields: A Comparison Between Energy - and Variance-based Approaches

An efficient implementation of geometrical derivatives at the Hartree–Fock (HF) and current-density functional theory (CDFT) levels is presented for the study of molecular structure in strong magnetic fields. The required integral derivatives are constructed using a hybrid McMurchie–Davidson and Rys quadrature approach, which combines the amenability of the former to the evaluation of derivative integrals with the efficiency of the latter for basis sets with high angular momentum. In addition to its application to evaluating derivatives of four-center integrals, this approach is also applied to gradients using the resolution-of-the-identity approximation, enabling efficient optimization of molecular structure for many-electron systems under a strong magnetic field. The CDFT contributions have been implemented for a wide range of density functionals up to and including the meta-GGA level with current-density dependent contributions and (range-separated) hybrids for the first time. Illustrative applications are presented to the OH and benzene molecules, revealing the rich and complex chemistry induced by the presence of an external magnetic field. Challenges for geometry optimization in strong fields are highlighted, along with the requirement for careful analysis of the resulting electronic structure at each stationary point. The importance of correlation effects is examined by comparison of results at the HF and CDFT levels. The present implementation of molecular gradients at the CDFT level provides a cost-effective approach to the study of molecular structure under strong magnetic fields, opening up many new possibilities for the study of chemistry in this regime.

Comparison↗
DOE OSTI2020

Determination of Chemical Freeze-Out Parameters from Net-Kaon Fluctuations at RHIC

We calculate the mean-over-variance ratio of the net-kaon fluctuations in the Hadron Resonance Gas (HRG) Model for the five highest energies of the RHIC Beam Energy Scan (BES) for different particle data lists. We compare these results with the latest experimental data from the STAR collaboration in order to extract sets of chemical freeze-out parameters for each list. We focused on the PDG2012 and PDG2016+ particle lists, which differ largely in the number of resonant states. Furthermore, our analysis determines the effect of the amount of resonances included in the HRG on the freeze-out conditions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Effects of Photovoltaic Module Materials and Design on Module Deformation Under Load

Quasi-static structural finite-element models of an aluminum-framed crystalline silicon photovoltaic module and a glass-glass thin-film module were constructed and validated against experimental measurements of deflection under uniform pressure loading. Specific practices in the computational representation of module assembly were identified as influential to matching experimental deflection observations. Additionally, parametric analyses using Latin hypercube sampling were performed to propagate input uncertainties related to module materials, dimensions, and tolerances into uncertainties in simulated deflection. Sensitivity analyses were performed on the uncertainty quantification datasets using linear correlation coefficients and variance-based sensitivity indices to elucidate key parameters influencing module deformation. Results identified edge tape and adhesive material properties as being strongly correlated to module deflection, suggesting that optimization of these materials could yield module stiffness gains at par with the conventionally structural parameters, such as glass thickness. This exercise verifies the applicability of finite-element models for accurately predicting mechanical behavior of solar modules and demonstrates a workflow for model-based parametric uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis. Finally, applications of this capability include the assessment of field environment loads, derivation of representative loading conditions for reduced-scale testing, and module design optimization, among others.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Molecular dynamics analysis of particle number fluctuations in the mixed phase of a first-order phase transition

Molecular dynamics simulations are performed for a finite nonrelativistic system of particles with Lennard-Jones potential. We study the effect of liquid-gas mixed phase on particle number fluctuations in coordinate subspace. A metastable region of the mixed phase, the so-called nucleation region, is analyzed in terms of a noninteracting cluster model. Large fluctuations due to spinodal decomposition are observed. They arise due to the interplay between the size of the acceptance region and that of the liquid phase. These effects are studied with a simple geometric model. The model results for the scaled variance of particle number distribution are compared with those obtained from the direct molecular dynamic simulations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

The importance of retaining a phylogenetic perspective in traits-based community analyses

1) Many environmental stressors manifest their effects via physiological processes (traits) that can differ significantly among species and species groups. We compiled available data for three traits related to the bioconcentration of the toxic metal cadmium (Cd) from 42 aquatic insect species representing orders Ephemeroptera (mayfly), Plecoptera (stonefly), and Trichoptera (caddisfly). These traits included the propensity to take up Cd from water (uptake rate constant, ku), the ability to excrete Cd (efflux rate constant, ke), and the net result of these two processes (bioconcentration factor, BCF). 2) Ranges in these Cd bioaccumulation traits varied in magnitude across lineages (some lineages had a greater tendency to bioaccumulate Cd than others). Overlap in the ranges of trait values among different lineages was common and highlights situations where species from different lineages can share a similar trait state, but represent the high end of possible physiological values for one lineage and the low end for another. 3) Variance around the mean trait state differed widely across clades, suggesting that some groups (e.g., Ephemerellidae) are inherently more variable than others (e.g., Perlidae). Thus, trait variability/lability is at least partially a function of lineage. 4) Akaike information criterion (AIC) comparisons of statistical models were more often driven by clade than by other potential biological or ecological explanation tested. Clade-driven models generally improved with increasing taxonomic resolution. 5) Altogether, these findings suggest that lineage provides context for the analysis of species traits, and that failure to consider lineage in community-based analysis of traits may obscure important patterns of species responses to environmental change.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

SU-E-QI-17: Dependence of 3D/4D PET Quantitative Image Features On Noise

Purpose: Quantitative imaging is a fast evolving discipline where a large number of features are extracted from images; i.e., radiomics. Some features have been shown to have diagnostic, prognostic and predictive value. However, they are sensitive to acquisition and processing factors; e.g., noise. In this study noise was added to positron emission tomography (PET) images to determine how features were affected by noise. Methods: Three levels of Gaussian noise were added to 8 lung cancer patients PET images acquired in 3D mode (static) and using respiratory tracking (4D); for the latter images from one of 10 phases were used. A total of 62 features: 14 shape, 19 intensity (1stO), 18 GLCM textures (2ndO; from grey level co-occurrence matrices) and 11 RLM textures (2ndO; from run-length matrices) features were extracted from segmented tumors. Dimensions of GLCM were 256×256, calculated using 3D images with a step size of 1 voxel in 13 directions. Grey levels were binned into 256 levels for RLM and features were calculated in all 13 directions. Results: Feature variation generally increased with noise. Shape features were the most stable while RLM were the most unstable. Intensity and GLCM features performed well; the latter being more robust. The most stable 1stO features were compactness, maximum and minimum length, standard deviation, root-mean-squared, I30, V10-V90, and entropy. The most stable 2ndO features were entropy, sum-average, sum-entropy, difference-average, difference-variance, difference-entropy, information-correlation-2, short-run-emphasis, long-run-emphasis, and run-percentage. In general, features computed from images from one of the phases of 4D scans were more stable than from 3D scans. Conclusion: This study shows the need to characterize image features carefully before they are used in research and medical applications. It also shows that the performance of features, and thereby feature selection, may be assessed in part by noise analysis.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Development of Fusion Neutronics Methodology, Software, and Testing Facility in FDS Team

Fusion neutronics including methodology, software, experiments, etc. is studied concerning the generation, utilizing and protection of neutrons in fusion facilities. Achievements have been made in the past decades to solve the new problems fusion neutronics. However there is still some way to go such as following. Automatic modeling method based on CAD has been developed to avoid the heavy burden of manual geometry description. The pre-processing costs much time to simplify the CAD model for converting to Constructive Solid Geometry (CSG), 2D or 3D mesh based geometry. This problem has become a new focus. Deep penetration of radiation shielding is notable problem for fusion. Adaptive variance reduction methods such as Consistent Adjoint Driven Importance Sampling (CADIS) were developed to accelerate convergence. However the gap still exists between engineering requirements and current methodology. The geometry simplification, homogenizing based tally, error in nuclear data and error propagation in coupled calculation, etc., causes considerable uncertainty, which leads to 'safety factor' applied in simulation results to achieve required safety margin. It can significantly raise the cost and even makes it impractical to initiate the fusion facilities. Uncertainty qualification, error analysis and error propagation problem should be studied. New methodology and software should be validated. For example the (n,p), (n,a), (n,t) cross section of Cu, Fe, W, Ni which is important for evaluation of material radiation damage is absent. The validation of neutronics properties of special components such as first wall, blanket and coil are needed. The D-T fusion neutron generator can directly represent the neutron environment in fusion reactors. However the neutron yield is several orders of magnitudes lower than requirements. To resolve obstacles in fusion neutronics, broad improvements of methodology, software and testing facility have been achieved by FDS Team in recent years and the main progress was introduced in this paper.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2015

Comparison of different moment-closure approximations for stochastic chemical kinetics

In recent years, moment-closure approximations (MAs) of the chemical master equation have become a popular method for the study of stochastic effects in chemical reaction systems. Several different MA methods have been proposed and applied in the literature, but it remains unclear how they perform with respect to each other. In this paper, we study the normal, Poisson, log-normal, and central-moment-neglect MAs by applying them to understand the stochastic properties of chemical systems whose deterministic rate equations show the properties of bistability, ultrasensitivity, and oscillatory behaviour. Our results suggest that the normal MA is favourable over the other studied MAs. In particular, we found that (i) the size of the region of parameter space where a closure gives physically meaningful results, e.g., positive mean and variance, is considerably larger for the normal closure than for the other three closures, (ii) the accuracy of the predictions of the four closures (relative to simulations using the stochastic simulation algorithm) is comparable in those regions of parameter space where all closures give physically meaningful results, and (iii) the Poisson and log-normal MAs are not uniquely defined for systems involving conservation laws in molecule numbers. We also describe the new software package MOCA which enables the automated numerical analysis of various MA methods in a graphical user interface and which was used to perform the comparative analysis presented in this paper. MOCA allows the user to develop novel closure methods and can treat polynomial, non-polynomial, as well as time-dependent propensity functions, thus being applicable to virtually any chemical reaction system.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Stringent σ8 constraints from small-scale galaxy clustering using a hybrid MCMC + emulator framework

ABSTRACT We present a novel simulation-based hybrid emulator approach that maximally derives cosmological and Halo Occupation Distribution (HOD) information from non-linear galaxy clustering, with sufficient precision for DESI Year 1 (Y1) analysis. Our hybrid approach first samples the HOD space on a fixed cosmological simulation grid to constrain the high-likelihood region of cosmology + HOD parameter space, and then constructs the emulator within this constrained region. This approach significantly reduces the parameter volume emulated over, thus achieving much smaller emulator errors with fixed number of training points. We demonstrate that this combined with state-of-the-art simulations result in tight emulator errors comparable to expected DESI Y1 LRG sample variance. We leverage the new abacussummit simulations and apply our hybrid approach to CMASS non-linear galaxy clustering data. We infer constraints on σ8 = 0.762 ± 0.024 and fσ8(zeff = 0.52) = 0.444 ± 0.016, the tightest among contemporary galaxy clustering studies. We also demonstrate that our fσ8 constraint is robust against secondary biases and other HOD model choices, a critical first step towards showcasing the robust cosmology information accessible in non-linear scales. We speculate that the additional statistical power of DESI Y1 should tighten the growth rate constraints by at least another 50–60 ${{\ \rm per\ cent}}$, significantly elucidating any potential tension with Planck. We also address the ‘lensing is low’ tension, which we find to be in the same direction as a potential tension in fσ8. We show that the combined effect of a lower fσ8 and environment-based bias accounts for approximately $50{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ of the discrepancy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

A sensitivity analysis of cloud properties to CLUBB parameters in the single-column Community Atmosphere Model (SCAM5)

In this study, we investigate the sensitivity of simulated shallow cumulus and stratocumulus clouds to selected tunable parameters of Cloud Layers Unified by Binormals (CLUBB) in the single column version of Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (SCAM5). A quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) sampling approach is adopted to effectively explore the high-dimensional parameter space and a generalized linear model is adopted to study the responses of simulated cloud fields to tunable parameters. One stratocumulus and two shallow convection cases are configured at both coarse and fine vertical resolutions in this study.. Our results show that most of the variance in simulated cloud fields can be explained by a small number of tunable parameters. The parameters related to Newtonian and buoyancy-damping terms of total water flux are found to be the most influential parameters for stratocumulus. For shallow cumulus, the most influential parameters are those related to skewness of vertical velocity, reflecting the strong coupling between cloud properties and dynamics in this regime. The influential parameters in the stratocumulus case are sensitive to the choice of the vertical resolution while little sensitivity is found for the shallow convection cases, as eddy mixing length (or dissipation time scale) plays a more important role and depends more strongly on the vertical resolution in stratocumulus than in shallow convections. The influential parameters remain almost unchanged when the number of tunable parameters increases from 16 to 35. This study improves understanding of the CLUBB behavior associated with parameter uncertainties.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Regional oxygen reduction and denitrification rates in groundwater from multi-model residence time distributions, San Joaquin Valley, USA

Rates of oxygen and nitrate reduction are key factors in determining the chemical evolution of groundwater. Little is known about how these rates vary and covary in regional groundwater settings, as few studies have focused on regional datasets with multiple tracers and methods of analysis that account for effects of mixed residence times on apparent reaction rates. This study provides insight into the characteristics of residence times and rates of O 2 reduction and denitrification (NO 3 – reduction) by comparing reaction rates using multi-model analytical residence time distributions (RTDs) applied to a data set of atmospheric tracers of groundwater age and geochemical data from 141 well samples in the Central Eastern San Joaquin Valley, CA. The RTD approach accounts for mixtures of residence times in a single sample to provide estimates of in-situ rates. Tracers included SF 6 , CFCs, 3 H, He from 3 H (tritiogenic He), 14 C, and terrigenic He. Parameter estimation and multi-model averaging were used to establish RTDs with lower error variances than those produced by individual RTD models. The set of multi-model RTDs was used in combination with NO 3 – and dissolved gas data to estimate zero order and first order rates of O 2 reduction and denitrification. Results indicated that O 2 reduction and denitrification rates followed approximately log-normal distributions. Rates of O 2 and NO 3 – reduction were correlated and, on an electron milliequivalent basis, denitrification rates tended to exceed O 2 reduction rates. Estimated historical NO 3 – trends were similar to historical measurements. Here, results show that the multi-model approach can improve estimation of age distributions, and that relatively easily measured O 2 rates can provide information about trends in denitrification rates, which are more difficult to estimate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Analysis of Strand-Specific RNA-Seq Data Using Machine Learning Reveals the Structures of Transcription Units in Clostridium thermocellum

The identification of transcription units (TUs) encoded in a bacterial genome is essential to elucidation of transcriptional regulation of the organism. To gain a detailed understanding of the dynamically composed TU structures, we have used four strand-specific RNA-seq (ssRNA-seq) datasets collected under two experimental conditions to derive the genomic TU organization of Clostridium thermocellum using a machine-learning approach. Our method accurately predicted the genomic boundaries of individual TUs based on two sets of parameters measuring the RNA-seq expression patterns across the genome: expression-level continuity and variance. A total of 2590 distinct TUs are predicted based on the four RNA-seq datasets. Moreover, among the predicted TUs, 44% have multiple genes. We assessed our prediction method on an independent set of RNA-seq data with longer reads. The evaluation confirmed the high quality of the predicted TUs. Functional enrichment analyses on a selected subset of the predicted TUs revealed interesting biology. To demonstrate the generality of the prediction method, we have also applied the method to RNA-seq data collected on Escherichia coli and achieved high prediction accuracies. The TU prediction program named SeqTU is publicly available athttps://code.google.com/p/seqtu/. We expect that the predicted TUs can serve as the baseline information for studying transcriptional and post-transcriptional regulation in C. thermocellum and other bacteria.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Statistical interpretation of the Amerithrax “morph” assay results

In the Amerithrax investigation PCR–based “morph assays” were used to link the anthrax letters with the RMR–1029 flask at USAMRIID. Quantitative data reported for several of these assays are not consistent with Poisson sampling statistics, but instead exhibit “Taylor's Law” behavior where the variance greatly exceeds the mean. A plausible statistical model for this behavior can explain the large number of observed negative and “inconclusive” findings, and implies a high likelihood that a repository sample could contain a “morph” mutant at concentrations well above the nominal detection limit but nonetheless give a negative or inconclusive test result. A Bayesian framework relates the assay results to the probability that a sample actually contains all four morph mutants, even though it tested negative for at least one. The analysis implies that the observed false negative rate actually does not significantly weaken the conclusion that the morph assays correctly excluded all but the stocks derived from RMR–1029 as possible sources of the letter powders, at least when the test results were unambiguous. In conclusion, these findings expand upon and resolve some of the issues cited in recent reviews, and indicate the importance of developing a rigorous statistical framework for interpreting “morph” assay data.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗