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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

AstroDOME: Standardized, Mass-Produceable, Small NASA Astrophysics Observatories for Big Missions

NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center is investigating the use of small, commercial off the shelf (COTS) spacecraft to enable breakthrough astrophysics research at radically reduced cost over previous generations of missions. This paper will focus on the Mission Systems perspective of this investigation. It will cover the spacecraft to instrument interface, and lessons learned in early concept payload development. Low-cost COTS spacecraft have proliferated in the last ~5 years. They represent an order of magnitude reduction in the cost of spacecraft bus development and acquisition. They are enabled by the advent of low-cost smallsat launch options in the immediately preceding years, and are seeded by recent distributed and disaggregated missions in other sectors such as telecommunications megaconstellations (e.g. Starlink, OneWeb, Project Kuiper) and ongoing Space Development Agency (SDA) developments. Our study was tasked with developing a standardized, mass-produceable, astrophysics payload which is reconfigurable to different wavelength bands while maintaining a single optics bench design, and a standardized mechanical, electrical, data, and thermal interface to the spacecraft bus, and which may be reconfigured to multiple COTS spacecraft offerings. In this paper we will discuss lessons learned from our case study. We will also present identified keys to mission success for performing cutting edge astrophysics observations while taking advantage of economies of scale with a disaggregated, standardized architecture.

Matthew Marcus↗
NASA NTRS2006

Nitrile/Buna N Material Failure Assessment for an O-Ring used on the Gaseous Hydrogen Flow Control Valve (FCV) of the Space Shuttle Main Engine

After the rollout of Space Shuttle Discovery in April 2005 in preparation for return-to-flight, there was a failure of the Orbiter (OV-103) helium signature leak test in the gaseous hydrogen (GH2) system. Leakage was attributed to the Flow Control Valve (FCV) in Main Engine 3. The FCV determined to be the source of the leak for OV-103 is designated as LV-58. The nitrile/Buna N rubber O-ring seal was removed from LV-58, and failure analysis indicated radial cracks providing leak paths in one quadrant. Cracks were eventually found in 6 of 9 FCV O-rings among the three Shuttle Orbiters, though none were as severe as those for LV-58, OV-103. Testing by EM10 at MSFC on all 9 FCV O- rings included: laser dimensional, Shore A hardness and properties from a dynamic mechanical analyzer (DMA) and an Instron tensile machine. The following test data was obtained on the cracked quadrant of the LV-58, OV-103 O-ring: (1) the estimated compression set was only 9.5%, compared to none for the rest of the O-ring; (2) Shore A hardness for the O.D. was higher by almost 4 durometer points than for the rest of the O-ring; and (3) DMA data showed that the storage/elastic modulus E was almost 25% lower than for the rest of the O-ring. Of the 8 FCV O-rings tested on an Instron, 4 yielded tensile strengths that were below the MIL spec requirement of 1350 psi-a likely influence of rubber cracking. Comparisons were made between values of modulus determined by DNA (elastic) and Instron (Young s). Each nitrile/Buna N O-ring used in the FCV conforms to the MIL-P-25732C specification. A number of such O-rings taken from shelf storage at MSFC and Kennedy Space Center (KSC) were used to generate a reference curve of DMA glass transition temperature (Tg) vs. shelf storage time ranging from 8 to 26 years. A similar reference curve of TGA onset temperature (of rubber weight loss) vs. shelf storage time was also generated. The DMA and TGA data for the used FCV O-rings were compared to the reference curves. Correlations were also made between the DMA modulus (at 22 C) and Shore A hardness for all 9 of the FCV O-rings used among the three Shuttle Orbiters. The radial cracking in the FCV O-rings was determined to be due to ozone attack, as nitrile/Buna N rubber is susceptible to such attack. Nitrile/Buna N material under MIL-P25732C should be used in a hydraulic fluid environment to help protect it from cracking. However, the FCV O-rings were used in an air only environment. The FCV design has as much as a 9-mil gap that allows the O.D. of the O-ring to be directly exposed to ozone, pressurized air and some elevated temperatures, accelerating the weathering process that leads to O-ring cracking. Space Shuttle flights will likely not continue past 2010. Therefore, Shuttle management decided to continue using the nitrile/Buna N material for the FCVs, but have each O-ring replaced after 3 years to minimize any chances for crack initiation.

Doug Wingard↗
NASA NTRS2026

Polarized Resonant Soft X-ray Scattering (P-RSoXS) as a New Technique for Characterizing Amorphous Astromaterials

In the coming years, samples will be returned from several asteroids, the lunar surface, and the first material returned directly from the Martian surface. Previous in-situ and remote studies indicate these samples will contain abundant amorphous or weakly crystalline materials. However, detailed characterization and quantification of these amorphous materials remains challenging. Conventional techniques, including electron microscopy and X-ray diffraction, provide important information on material structure, but are generally limited to crystalline materials. Polarized resonant soft X-ray scattering (P-RSoXS) is a synchrotron-based X-ray scattering technique that has been used to characterize and quantify weakly crystalline systems, including soft materials. This research aims to translate this technique to geologic and extraterrestrial materials, building off the knowledge of using P-RSoXS to interrogate soft materials. P-RSoXS is well-suited to interrogate geologic materials, which are often multiphase, heterogeneous systems with crystalline and amorphous components, and domain sizes on the order of tens of nanometers. It is anticipated that future work will help reveal new chemical and structural information in geologic materials. Maturation of this preliminary work to develop P-RSoXS to characterize astromaterial-relevant samples will provide new understanding of the secondary processes responsible for the development of amorphous astromaterials and further elucidate our knowledge of the geologic history and past alteration processes.

Joshua H Litofsky↗
NASA NTRS1993

Development of global/chemistry model for jet-fuel thermal stability based on observations from static and flowing experiments

Two global-chemistry models for oxidative deposition of jet fuels are evaluated by integrating them into a Computational Fluid Dynamics with Chemistry (CFDC) code. A previously developed two-step global-chemistry model was found to be insufficient to describe the thermal-oxidation and -deposition rates associated with a Jet-A fuel. A new global-chemistry model has been developed systematically based on observations from flowing and static experiments. The global-autoxidation reaction is modified such that the reaction rate becomes zeroth-order with respect to the dissolved oxygen concentration. The generation of deposit-forming precursor is coupled with the autoxidation reaction by introducing a radical species ROO. A formulation for the sticking probability has also been developed. Deposition profiles are well represented by this new model under a variety of temperature and flow conditions. The model correctly predicts the changes in magnitude and spatial location of the deposition peak due to changes in flow. The CFDC model, which is designed for flowing systems, has been extended to static experiments. The model incorporates a non-depleting species F(sub s) representing all non-oxygen compounds responsible for deposition. Static experiments were found to provide a useful and inexpensive method for estimating the concentration of F(sub s) in the fuel.

V. R. Katta↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Accelerating SNP Development with Radiation Source Approximations for Far-Field Environment Modeling

The successful development and deployment of space nuclear power and propulsion technology requires a high-fidelity, efficient means of modeling ex-core radiation fields. Monte Carlo particle transport codes provide enable the highest level of fidelity in radiation field modeling but are inefficient for modeling ex-core radiation without modification. This paper details the development of an approach to ex-core radiation field modeling that maintains the fidelity of a Monte Carlo transport approach without sacrificing computational efficiency. This approach is based on recent improvements to an existing Monte Carlo transport acceleration technique known as surface source banking. As the transport of many particles is required to ensure adequate uncertainty in far field transport, analytical reconstruction techniques are employed to represent surface source banks as sampleable series of distributions in particle phase from which an arbitrarily large number of particles can be generated and simulated. All steps of this approach are incorporated into an AMA model to test both the underlying mathematics of the analytical source reconstruction process, as well as the relevance of the technique as a whole towards SNP applications. These tests demonstrated that this approach is capable of accelerating far-field radiation modeling in SNP-relevant scenarios by factors of at least nine over purely eigenvalue-based scenarios without significantly sacrificing simulation accuracy.

Surface Source Banking↗
NASA NTRS2026

Assessing the Adhesion of Nanofibrous PVDF-HFP as Passive Thermal Control Coatings for the Extraterrestrial Storage of Cryogenic Propellants

Cryogenic propellant passive thermal management techniques in space are essential complements to active thermal management methods, helping reduce absolute dependence on the latter. Particularly, materials with superior optical properties (high solar reflectance and infrared emittance) would be beneficial for passive thermal control to reject most of the incident solar radiation and enhance thermal emission from the storage tank, leading to self-cooling. We developed a nanofibrous, porous passive thermal control material by electrospinning polyvinylidene fluoride-co-hexafluoropropylene (PVDF-HFP) co-polymer onto an aluminum foil substrate. The material exhibits a very high solar reflectance (>99%) and infrared emittance (~86%) when characterized in the ultraviolet-visible-near infrared and mid-infrared wavelengths. This study focuses on the adhesion of the nanofibrous PVDF-HFP to the substrate. We incorporated in-lab fabricated and commercial adhesives, under normal room conditions, between the nanofibers and the aluminum foil substrate to improve their adhesion. Some samples were also exposed to space-like conditions – vacuum and thermal cycling, to investigate their effects on the strengths of adhesives. Subsequently, adhesion peel tests were conducted on all the samples to assess the peel strengths of the bonds. Peel test strengths after space environment conditioning of the adhesives were generally higher than those observed in the pristine, unaged samples. The results are discussed in this study.

Chieloka Ibekwe↗
NASA NTRS2026

Space Suit Material Compatibility with Space Vehicle Coolant PMS-1.5R

During a survey of 82P on February 11, 2023, a shiny substance was detected on the Progress vehicle. The suspected material was PMS-1.5R, a low volatility silicone oil coolant used in the vehicle. Crew exposure to the coolant was a concern as the low volatility would increase residence time, the time a material will stay on a surface after exposure to vacuum. A review of space suit materials revealed several materials with compatibility concerns that could impact Extravehicular Activity (EVA) operations and safety. To understand the risk, space suit materials were exposed to a simulant and tested. This testing provided the basis for rationale generated to continue with EVA operations for US EVA 86 on April 2, 2023. This testing also served as the basis to assess impacts to ISS EMU hardware due to potential contamination brought inside ISS on Russian space suits during RS EVA 61 on October 25, 2023, following an ISS Russian Multipurpose Lab Module (MLM) radiator leak of the same fluid on October 9, 2023. This paper will discuss the testing performed and analyze test results impacts to EVA operations. Additional work was conducted to determine coolant evaporation rates in space vacuum and demonstrate that no significant unreacted coolant from the MLM leak would remain on ISS surfaces long enough to contaminate the EMU or affect the ISS ECLSS water separator.

Space Suit Materials↗
NASA NTRS1993

Combustion for future supersonic transport propulsion

Even with it's marginal performance, Concorde has demonstrated that supersonic civil aircraft are a practical proposition. A second generation machine will need sufficiently good performance for a robust operating system that can provide reliable, frequent service with competitive economics. Additionally, the propulsion system must be acceptable environmentally. That is it must create acceptable noise levels around airports and have acceptable emissions throughout its mission including cruise. Whatever devices may be used to improve the acceptability at subsonic flight conditions, the high operating temperatures at cruise can create difficult targets for the operation of the combustion system both mechanically and in the combustion process itself. While the driving force is ever better fuel consumption and weight to achieve economic viability, a future supersonic transport engine will have cycle temperatures limited only by the mechanical integrity of the major components. The environment of the major components in modern gas turbine engines is dominated by the air delivered by the compressor system. Consequently the maximum compression temperature is governed by materials available for the turbine and compressor discs. The continued improvement of the disc material leads to combustion inlet temperatures beyond today's experience and sets difficult targets for combustion system emissions. This is worsened by the requirement being at cruise and therefore maintained for the major part of the mission. Problems such as creep and oxidation of metallic parts are also considered.

B. W. Lowrie↗
NASA NTRS1962

Mechanical Design of Spacecraft

In the spring of 1962, engineers from the Engineering Mechanics Division of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory gave a series of lectures on spacecraft design at the Engineering Design seminars conducted at the California Institute of Technology. Several of these lectures were subsequently given at Stanford University as part of the Space Technology seminar series sponsored by the Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics. Presented here are notes taken from these lectures. The lectures were conceived with the intent of providing the audience with a glimpse of the activities of a few mechanical engineers who are involved in designing, building, and testing spacecraft. Engineering courses generally consist of heavily idealized problems in order to allow the more efficient teaching of mathematical technique. Students, therefore, receive a somewhat limited exposure to actual engineering problems, which are typified by more unknowns than equations. For this reason it was considered valuable to demonstrate some of the problems faced by spacecraft designers, the processes used to arrive at solutions, and the interactions between the engineer and the remainder of the organization in which he is constrained to operate. These lecture notes are not so much a compilation of sophisticated techniques of analysis as they are a collection of examples of spacecraft hardware and associated problems. They will be of interest not so much to the experienced spacecraft designer as to those who wonder what part the mechanical engineer plays in an effort such as the exploration of space.

MARINER SPACE PROBE↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA's RPS Program Status Update and Future Outlook

Radioisotope Power Systems (RPS) have been safely providing the United States with the power to explore space for almost 65 years. NASA established the RPS Program in 2010 to support specialized science missions and potential future opportunities more effectively and efficiently. The RPS Program ensures the availability of RPS for the exploration of the solar system in environments where conventional solar or chemical power generation is impractical or impossible. NASA missions have utilized space nuclear power to explore planets, moons, and interstellar space, enabling missions to some of the deepest, darkest, and dustiest regions in the solar system and beyond. This scientific exploration has deepened our understanding of the solar system and our role within. The RPS Program, in partnership with the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy continues to operate as an interagency partnership to provide robust radioisotope power system solutions to spacecraft that conduct missions to extreme environments for science and exploration. This Program invests in systems and technologies to ensure that NASA maintains this capability well into the future and it manages processes that ensure the safe use and launch of these systems. This paper provides a synopsis of current activities of the RPS Program, and it introduces a focus on the commercialization of RPS to enable a variety of future mission applications.

radioisotope power systems↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Predicting Team Functioning in Long Term Space Missions Using Acoustic and Linguistic Measures

Maintaining optimal team functioning is critical for long-duration space exploration missions, yet traditional monitoring methods, such as self-reports and wearable sensors, often impose operational burdens or suffer from bias. This paper investigates a non-intrusive speech-based artificial intelligence (AI) framework to predict degradations in team functioning using data from the Human Exploration Research Analog (HERA) of the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Using acoustic features, linguistic descriptors, and semantic embeddings, we evaluate static non-linear and temporal machine learning models to predict both objective (task accuracy) and subjective (self-reported efficacy and cohesion) team functioning outcomes. Results indicate that temporal models outperform static approaches, with prediction of objective task accuracy in Team Interaction Battery (TIB) improving from near chance to 71%. Self-reported outcomes, including team efficacy and cohesion, are predicted more reliably than task performance, achieving balanced accuracies of up to 85.56% and 78.12%, respectively, and are found to be most strongly associated with acoustic features. In a second interdependent task, the MMSEV–EVA, accuracies of up to 78% are achieved using temporal models with acoustic features. Furthermore, incorporating just 1–2 days of team-specific historical data systematically improved performance, and acoustic markers from informal pre-task interactions provided modest predictive gains. Finally, while automated preprocessing yielded viable accuracy, humancorrected data provided moderate performance gains, though transcription error rates did not significantly correlate with model performance. These findings highlight the potential of speech as a passive, high-fidelity monitoring tool for autonomous habitats.

Temporal modeling↗
NASA NTRS2026

Improvement in the Thermal-to-Structural Model Mapping Process for Integrated Modeling for the Roman Space Telescope

Integrated Modeling has been a key component of verifying optical requirements for the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope (RST) that are either impossible or impractical to verify exclusively through ground testing. Two major areas for integrated Modeling are Jitter and Thermal Distortion that require the exchanges of model performance predictions across disciplines. In both cases, distortions are impressed on optical models to evaluate the impact on boresight alignment and wave front error. In the case of Jitter, the disturbances are driven by reactions to motions most often from actuators; however, in the case of thermal distortion, the motions are driven by thermal expansion or contraction as a result of changing temperatures. This then requires a link further upstream to the thermal model, which is used to predict the thermal performance and temperature gradients and stability. The process for mapping temperatures from a thermal model to a corresponding structural model has been performed numerous times through the RST project lifecycle, with improvements in the accuracy, verification, and effort sought throughout. This paper describes some of the recent improvements to the process, including: capture of the visualization parameters, automatic generation of the mapped images for both the thermal and structural model groupings, and reduction in the effort to assemble the full set of mapped temperatures. These upgrades have greatly reduced the manual effort associated with thermal mapping and allowed for faster turn-around of Integrated Modeling predictions.

Thermal Mapping↗
NASA NTRS1964

Radio Noise Problems in Arctic Regions

Three main types of radio noise should be considered when establishing noise levels for communication purposes or in experiments utilizing radio techniques in Arctic regions. These are atmospheric and man-made noise, and precipitation static. National Bureau of Standards radio noise data obtained hourly at Arctic and Antarctic stations on eight .fixed frequencies between 51 kc and 20 Mc/s are analyzed to show the characteristics of the three types. The diurnal and seasonal variations of atmospheric radio noise at high latitudes are explainable in terms of changes in propagation factors and in the distribution of world thunderstorm activity. In both northern and southern Arctic regions atmospheric noise decreases during polar cap absorption (PCA), most markedly in the h.f. band. The probable magnitude of man-made noise in the h.f. band is estimated from data taken during PCA, when atmospheric noise is absent. At Thule man-made noise on 2.5 and 5 Mc/s appears to be 57 and 49 dB above kTB (where kTB is antenna thermal noise power), respectively, while at Byrd Station the values are about 20 and 12 dB respectively. Precipitation static is generated on exposed antennas during periods of blowing snow (blizzards). The noise power magnitude can be at least 50 dB above man-made and atmospheric levels, but the maximum enhancement cannot be ascertained because of missing data. In winter and spring months at Byrd Station radio data dependent upon exposed antennas may be lost 10-30 per cent of the time due to precipitation static alone.

Radio Noise↗
NASA NTRS2026

The Trajectory of Recent Solid State Fusion Results

Both NASA and Google have explored and funded Low Energy Nuclear Reaction (LENR) aka Solid-State Fusion or Lattice Confinement Fusion (LCF) research. NASA has funded efforts since 1989, and Google Research began in 2014. Google, and researchers initially-funded by Google, published significant scientific papers in Nature, Nature Communications and the Journal of Applied Physics. NASA began a significant set of LENR-triggering programs in 2012 resulting in papers in Physical Review C, the Journal of Electroanalytical Chemistry and the Journal of Condensed Matter Nuclear Science. Both NASA and Google engaged researchers across fields of nuclear physics, chemistry, electrochemistry, material science and more. NASA built upon early novel gas pumping experiments then followed the patented work of the US Navy SPAWAR (US8,419,919, “System and Method to Generate Particles”) and experiments with the Naval Surface Warfare Centers. Google supported researchers at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), the University of British Columbia (UBC), MIT and others. This resulted in patent applications and two granted patents (US10264661B2, “Target structure for enhanced electron screening” and US10566094B2 “Enhanced electron screening through plasmon oscillations”). These separate efforts, unknown to the researchers at the time, provided the impetus for the DoE ARPA-E LENR program followed by the DARPA DSO “Mechanisms for Amplification of Fusion Reaction Rates in Solids” (MARRS) program. This document briefly describes the overlapping NASA and Google Research efforts in plasma loading and electron screening emphasizing the results of the latest paper in Nature Communications. The papers and patents cited are listed.

electron screening↗
NASA NTRS2024

NIAC Phase I Final Report Lunar South Pole Oxygen Pipeline (LSPOP)

The Lunar South Pole Oxygen Pipeline (LSPOP) Phase I NIAC, is to analyze the feasibility of constructing a pipeline at the Moon’s South Pole for transporting gaseous oxygen from point of generation to point of use. A lunar pipeline has never been pursued and will revolutionize lunar surface operations for the Artemis program and reduce cost and risk. Our starting concept is for a 5 km pipeline to transport oxygen gas from an oxygen production source, for example from our molten regolith electrolysis (MRE, currently at TRL 5, see references[1],[2],[3],[4],[5],[6] for technical discussions of the MRE process) extraction site, or any other source, to an oxygen storage/liquification plant near a lunar base. The pipeline is designed to: 1) be constructed robotically from regolith-derived metals with minimal material transferred from Earth, 2) be repairable robotically, 3) have an oxygen flow rate of ~2 kg/hour, which is commensurate with the NASA initial projected need of 10,000 kg/year, 4) operate with minimal power over the lifetime of the pipeline, with a goal of high operational reliability and the ability to survive in the lunar environment for > 10 years. We compare this concept to a pipeline concept with pipe produced on Earth and then transported to and assembled on the Moon. Both approaches will use earth-based compressors, valves, and fittings which are integrated into the pipeline on the Moon.

NIAC Phase I↗
NASA NTRS2026

The Operational NASA Anomaly Gas Analyzer and Exploration Follow-Ons

The NASA Anomaly Gas Analyzer (AGA) is the culmination of nearly ten years of advancement of core technology originally developed by Vista Photonics through the Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) program and expanded using NASA program funding. The AGA is a portable, battery operated, optical gas detection instrument for continuous monitoring of H 2 O, CO 2 , O 2 , CO, NH 3 , HCN, HF, HCl in the spacecraft environment. Real time, in-situ monitored, gas concentrations are communicated at 1 Hz through a built-in display on-orbit and additionally through a serial interface on the ground. The instruments function over the typical range of temperatures and pressures required for the spacecraft environment. A ten-year operational life is targeted. Seven AGA instruments are currently deployed on the International Space Station and two Orion-specific units are manifested for Artemis 2. A variation of the operational AGA is under development for lunar Human Landing Systems. A wider calibrated operating pressure envelope is required in this application. Otherwise, the instruments straightforwardly address lessons learned from the original AGA by improving aspects of thermal control, ruggedness, and ease-of-use. A subset of AGA-developed sensed gases (H 2 O, CO 2 , O 2 ) is the subject of the Primary Constituent Monitor (PCM) development for the Habitation and Logistics Outpost (HALO) destined for lunar orbit. Two PCMs will be installed in HALO as part of the environmental control loop where they will interface with vehicle power and communications. While the basic sensor techniques are unchanged from the AGA, these instruments have been radiation hardened to survive for many years in the harsh target environment. Current development status for these instruments will be presented along with recent developments of a naval submarine variant.

ECLSS↗
NASA NTRS2026

The Operational NASA Anomaly Gas Analyzer and Exploration Follow-Ons

The NASA Anomaly Gas Analyzer (AGA) is the culmination of nearly ten years of advancement of core technology originally developed by Vista Photonics through the Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) program and expanded using NASA program funding. The AGA is a portable, battery operated, optical gas detection instrument for continuous monitoring of H 2 O, CO 2 , O 2 , CO, NH 3 , HCN, HF, HCl in the spacecraft environment. Real time, in-situ monitored, gas concentrations are communicated at 1 Hz through a built-in display on-orbit and additionally through a serial interface on the ground. The instruments function over the typical range of temperatures and pressures required for the spacecraft environment. A ten-year operational life is targeted. Seven AGA instruments are currently deployed on the International Space Station and two Orion-specific units are manifested for Artemis 2. A variation of the operational AGA is under development for lunar Human Landing Systems. A wider calibrated operating pressure envelope is required in this application. Otherwise, the instruments straightforwardly address lessons learned from the original AGA by improving aspects of thermal control, ruggedness, and ease-of-use. A subset of AGA-developed sensed gases (H 2 O, CO 2 , O 2 ) is the subject of the Primary Constituent Monitor (PCM) development for the Habitation and Logistics Outpost (HALO) destined for lunar orbit. Two PCMs will be installed in HALO as part of the environmental control loop where they will interface with vehicle power and communications. While the basic sensor techniques are unchanged from the AGA, these instruments have been radiation hardened to survive for many years in the harsh target environment. Current development status for these instruments will be presented along with recent developments of a naval submarine variant.

Air Monitoring↗
NASA NTRS2026

Proactive Wildfire Management: A Remote Sensing and Multimodal CNN-MLP Architecture for Ignition Risk Forecasting

As the frequency and intensity of wildfires increase, with fire seasons now starting earlier and ending later than they have over the past decades, current monitoring systems, such as lookout towers and satellites, are hindered by cloud cover, low-resolution imagery, and static data gaps that fail to track vegetation moisture levels fast enough to catch rapid pre-ignition changes. This report proposes a Machine Learning-enabled Wildfire Ignition Prediction framework that combines satellite monitoring with dynamic and high-resolution remote sensing from Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) swarms. The method would use multispectral and thermal data from the Landsat program to create a baseline for vegetation health, calculating a two-band Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI2) and the moisture content of the vegetation. These inputs will later be fused with microscale UAV weather data, including thermal hotspots found through thick canopies, hyperspectral chemical signatures of pre-visual combustion, and local weather streams. The multispectral satellite, multispectral Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR), and thermal data would then be processed through a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), alongside a Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) for the micro-weather telemetry. The outputs of these networks would be fused into a single feature representation and passed through a final prediction network to generate real-time ignition risk scores and hotspot alerts. Model performance would be assessed using standard classification metrics, including a Receiver Operating Characteristic - Area Under the Curve (ROC AUC) and F1 score. This system would allow first responders to identify high-risk zones and intervene before ignition occurs, improving emergency response time compared to current approaches.

machine learning↗