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DOE OSTI2024

Analyzing Potential Failures and Effects in a Pilot-Scale Biomass Preprocessing Facility for Improved Reliability

This study demonstrates a failure identification methodology applied to a preprocessing facility generating conversion-ready feedstocks from biomass meeting conversion process critical quality attribute (CQA) specifications. Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) was used as an industrially relevant risk analysis approach to evaluate a logging residue preprocessing system to prepare feedstock for pyrolysis conversion. Risk evaluations considered both system-level and operation unit-level assessments considering process efficiency, product quality, cost, sustainability, and safety. Key outputs included estimations of semi-quantitative risk scores for each failure, identification of the failure impacts, identification of failure causes associated with material attributes and process parameters, ranking success rates of failure detection methods, and speculation of potential mitigation strategies for decreasing failure risk scores. Results showed that deviations from moisture specifications had cascading consequences for other CQAs along with process safety implications. Failures linked to fixed carbon specifications carried the highest risk scores for product quality and process efficiency impacts. As increased throughput can be inversely related to meeting product quality specifications; achieving throughput and other material-based CQAs simultaneously will likely require system optimization or prioritization based on system economics. Ultimately, this work successfully demonstrates FMEA as a risk analysis approach for other bioenergy process systems.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

NASA NTRS1996

Modeling, Monitoring and Fault Diagnosis of Spacecraft Air Contaminants

Progress and results in the development of an integrated air quality modeling, monitoring, fault detection, and isolation system are presented. The focus was on development of distributed models of the air contaminants transport, the study of air quality monitoring techniques based on the model of transport process and on-line contaminant concentration measurements, and sensor placement. Different approaches to the modeling of spacecraft air contamination are discussed, and a three-dimensional distributed parameter air contaminant dispersion model applicable to both laminar and turbulent transport is proposed. A two-dimensional approximation of a full scale transport model is also proposed based on the spatial averaging of the three dimensional model over the least important space coordinate. A computer implementation of the transport model is considered and a detailed development of two- and three-dimensional models illustrated by contaminant transport simulation results is presented. The use of a well established Kalman filtering approach is suggested as a method for generating on-line contaminant concentration estimates based on both real time measurements and the model of contaminant transport process. It is shown that high computational requirements of the traditional Kalman filter can render difficult its real-time implementation for high-dimensional transport model and a novel implicit Kalman filtering algorithm is proposed which is shown to lead to an order of magnitude faster computer implementation in the case of air quality monitoring.

Ramirez, W. Fred↗

DOE OSTI2019

Monte Carlo Control Loops for Cosmic Shear Cosmology with DES Year 1

Weak lensing by large-scale structure is a powerful probe of cosmology and of the dark universe. This cosmic shear technique relies on the accurate measurement of the shapes and redshifts of background galaxies and requires precise control of systematic errors. The Monte Carlo Control Loops (MCCL) is a forward modelling method designed to tackle this problem. It relies on the Ultra Fast Image Generator (UFig) to produce simulated images tuned to match the target data statistically, followed by calibrations and tolerance loops. We present the first end-to-end application of this method, on the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 1 wide field imaging data. We simultaneously measure the shear power spectrum $C_{\ell}$ and the redshift distribution $n(z)$ of the background galaxy sample. The method includes maps of the systematic sources, Point Spread Function (PSF), an Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) inference of the simulation model parameters, a shear calibration scheme, and the fast estimation of the covariance matrix. We find a close statistical agreement between the simulations and the DES Y1 data using an array of diagnostics. In a non-tomographic setting, we derive a set of $C_\ell$ and $n(z)$ curves that encode the cosmic shear measurement, as well as the systematic uncertainty. Following a blinding scheme, we measure the combination of $\Omega_m$, $\sigma_8$, and intrinsic alignment amplitude $A_{\rm{IA}}$, defined as $S_8D_{\rm{IA}} = \sigma_8(\Omega_m/0.3)^{0.5}D_{\rm{IA}}$, where $D_{\rm{IA}}=1-0.11(A_{\rm{IA}}-1)$. We find $S_8D_{\rm{IA}}=0.895^{+0.054}_{-0.039}$, where systematics are at the level of roughly 60\% of the statistical errors. We discuss these results in the context of earlier cosmic shear analyses of the DES Y1 data. Our findings indicate that this method and its fast runtime offer good prospects for cosmic shear measurements with future wide-field surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Deep Learning Approaches to Surrogates for Solving the Diffusion Equation for Mechanistic Real-World Simulations

In many mechanistic medical, biological, physical, and engineered spatiotemporal dynamic models the numerical solution of partial differential equations (PDEs), especially for diffusion, fluid flow and mechanical relaxation, can make simulations impractically slow. Biological models of tissues and organs often require the simultaneous calculation of the spatial variation of concentration of dozens of diffusing chemical species. One clinical example where rapid calculation of a diffusing field is of use is the estimation of oxygen gradients in the retina, based on imaging of the retinal vasculature, to guide surgical interventions in diabetic retinopathy. Furthermore, the ability to predict blood perfusion and oxygenation may one day guide clinical interventions in diverse settings, i.e., from stent placement in treating heart disease to BOLD fMRI interpretation in evaluating cognitive function (Xie et al., 2019; Lee et al., 2020). Since the quasi-steady-state solutions required for fast-diffusing chemical species like oxygen are particularly computationally costly, we consider the use of a neural network to provide an approximate solution to the steady-state diffusion equation. Machine learning surrogates, neural networks trained to provide approximate solutions to such complicated numerical problems, can often provide speed-ups of several orders of magnitude compared to direct calculation. Surrogates of PDEs could enable use of larger and more detailed models than are possible with direct calculation and can make including such simulations in real-time or near-real time workflows practical. Creating a surrogate requires running the direct calculation tens of thousands of times to generate training data and then training the neural network, both of which are computationally expensive. Often the practical applications of such models require thousands to millions of replica simulations, for example for parameter identification and uncertainty quantification, each of which gains speed from surrogate use and rapidly recovers the up-front costs of surrogate generation. We use a Convolutional Neural Network to approximate the stationary solution to the diffusion equation in the case of two equal-diameter, circular, constant-value sources located at random positions in a two-dimensional square domain with absorbing boundary conditions. Such a configuration caricatures the chemical concentration field of a fast-diffusing species like oxygen in a tissue with two parallel blood vessels in a cross section perpendicular to the two blood vessels. To improve convergence during training, we apply a training approach that uses roll-back to reject stochastic changes to the network that increase the loss function. The trained neural network approximation is about 1000 times faster than the direct calculation for individual replicas. Because different applications will have different criteria for acceptable approximation accuracy, we discuss a variety of loss functions and accuracy estimators that can help select the best network for a particular application. We briefly discuss some of the issues we encountered with overfitting, mismapping of the field values and the geometrical conditions that lead to large absolute and relative errors in the approximate solution.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1986

Dynamic modelling and estimation of the error due to asynchronism in a redundant asynchronous multiprocessor system

The use of Redundant Asynchronous Multiprocessor System to achieve ultrareliable Fault Tolerant Control Systems shows great promise. The development has been hampered by the inability to determine whether differences in the outputs of redundant CPU's are due to failures or to accrued error built up by slight differences in CPU clock intervals. This study derives an analytical dynamic model of the difference between redundant CPU's due to differences in their clock intervals and uses this model with on-line parameter identification to idenitify the differences in the clock intervals. The ability of this methodology to accurately track errors due to asynchronisity generate an error signal with the effect of asynchronisity removed and this signal may be used to detect and isolate actual system failures.

Huynh, Loc C.↗

DOE OSTI2023

A phased workflow to define permit‐ready locations for large volume CO 2 injection and storage

Abstract To‐date, only two UIC Class VI permits have been issued by the US Environmental Protection Agency. We illustrate a four‐phase workflow to first identify regional storage resources and then down‐select sites to yield permit‐ready locations that can accept and store large volumes of CO 2 . Specific permit requirements should guide objectives and define deliverables of respective workflow phases. In the first phase we used available regional data and screened structure and injection zones to locate resources that match CO 2 volumes planned to be captured. Available data were also used to assess presence and depth of usable groundwater, the key resource being protected via permitting. We then used advanced, closed‐form, analytical solutions (EASiTool) to estimate CO 2 injectivity into each hydrologically connected injection compartment. In the second phase we acquired and conditioned additional wireline logs and leased available seismic datasets. We interpreted the depositional systems from wireline well‐log character and mapped sandbody geometry to interpolate injection and confining‐zone distribution. Using available data, we mapped faults and locations of freshwater and overpressure (or other capacity‐limiting geologic parameters) in more detail. In the third phase, we used the augmented geologic data to develop a static model for the selected area, extracted the areas of highest interest, and generated and ran dynamic (flow) models. In a fourth phase, we reduced major uncertainties identified in earlier phases. Our case study indicates that to complete preparation of a permit application requires (1) improved lithologic characterization information (thicknesses and horizontal and vertical connectivity) and (2) better definition of poorly defined local faults. © 2023 The Authors. Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology published by Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

AEPF: Attention-Enabled Point Fusion for 3D Object Detection

Current state-of-the-art (SOTA) LiDAR-only detectors perform well for 3D object detection tasks, but point cloud data are typically sparse and lacks semantic information. Detailed semantic information obtained from camera images can be added with existing LiDAR-based detectors to create a robust 3D detection pipeline. With two different data types, a major challenge in developing multi-modal sensor fusion networks is to achieve effective data fusion while managing computational resources. With separate 2D and 3D feature extraction backbones, feature fusion can become more challenging as these modes generate different gradients, leading to gradient conflicts and suboptimal convergence during network optimization. To this end, we propose a 3D object detection method, Attention-Enabled Point Fusion (AEPF). AEPF uses images and voxelized point cloud data as inputs and estimates the 3D bounding boxes of object locations as outputs. An attention mechanism is introduced to an existing feature fusion strategy to improve 3D detection accuracy and two variants are proposed. These two variants, AEPF-Small and AEPF-Large, address different needs. AEPF-Small, with a lightweight attention module and fewer parameters, offers fast inference. AEPF-Large, with a more complex attention module and increased parameters, provides higher accuracy than baseline models. Experimental results on the KITTI validation set show that AEPF-Small maintains SOTA 3D detection accuracy while inferencing at higher speeds. AEPF-Large achieves mean average precision scores of 91.13, 79.06, and 76.15 for the car class’s easy, medium, and hard targets, respectively, in the KITTI validation set. Results from ablation experiments are also presented to support the choice of model architecture.

Chemistry↗

NASA NTRS2015

Cloud Properties of CERES-MODIS Edition 4 and CERES-VIIRS Edition 1

The Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) analyzes MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data and Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) to derive cloud properties that are combine with aerosol and CERES broadband flux data to create a multi-parameter data set for climate study. CERES has produced over 15 years of data from Terra and over 13 years of data from Aqua using the CERES-MODIS Edition-2 cloud retrieval algorithm. A recently revised algorithm, CERESMODIS Edition 4, has been developed and is now generating enhanced cloud data for climate research (over 10 years for Terra and 8 years for Aqua). New multispectral retrievals of properties are included along with a multilayer cloud retrieval system. Cloud microphysical properties are reported at 3 wavelengths, 0.65, 1.24, and 2.1 microns to enable better estimates of the vertical profiles of cloud water contents. Cloud properties over snow are retrieved using the 1.24-micron channel. A new CERES-VIIRS cloud retrieval package was developed for the VIIRS spectral complement and is currently producing the CERES-VIIRS Edition 1 cloud dataset. The results from CERES-MODIS Edition 4 and CERES-VIIRS Edition 1 are presented and compared with each other and other datasets, including CALIPSO, CloudSat and the CERES-MODIS Edition-2 results.

Sun-Mack, Sunny↗

DOE OSTI2026

Entanglement Requirements for Coherent Enhancement in Detectors

Coherent enhancement is a powerful mechanism for improving the sensitivity of a wide range of detectors, but its practical use is often limited by the difficulty of preparing the required quantum states. We show that this difficulty has a fundamental origin: coherent enhancement of a signal interacting with a detector is quantitatively constrained by entanglement. We prove general bounds on how the strength of coherent effects can scale with system size, as a function of the single-mode entanglement entropy of the detector. These bounds smoothly interpolate between the incoherent and fully coherent regimes, and apply both to parameter-estimation problems and to scattering processes. We discuss these results from two complementary perspectives: First, they appear as bounds on the quantum Fisher information of many-body states, which translate directly into limits on parameter sensitivity via the quantum Cramér-Rao bound. Second, they can be interpreted as limits on a class of scattering cross sections, leading to predictions for how minimum detectable interaction strengths scale with target size. Together, these results provide a unified view of coherent enhancement in metrology and scattering experiments, and motivate the development of new techniques for generating entangled detector states.

Bogorad, Zachary [Fermilab] (ORCID:000000019913647↗

DOE OSTI2018

A New Approach for Short-Term Solar Radiation Forecasting Using the Estimation of Cloud Fraction and Cloud Albedo

Solar generation is an increasing part of the energy portfolio in the United States. An accurate forecast of the available solar resource and power is essential to managing the electric grid, market operations, and reducing the cost of solar energy. High-frequency forecasts of solar radiation in intra-hour horizons is important for real-time electric power system energy management, especially at the distribution level. Conventional Numerical Weather Prediction models perform poorly in intra-hour, high-frequency forecasts because of the limits on real-time computing, spatial resolution, and infrequent availability of observations. Although a number of alternative technologies, e.g., time-series analysis and machine learning, have been used to fill this gap, the smart persistence model is among the top-performing models in short-term forecasting and therefore often serves as the baseline to evaluate other forecasting models. Although the smart persistence model often serves as the baseline model in these intra-hour forecasts, obvious uncertainties exist in the current smart persistence model: (1) clear-sky index does not respond to the variation of the solar incident angle when cloud conditions are persistent within the forecast horizon, and (2) cloud coverage is inherently persistent though it is constrained by cloud advection. In this study, we developed a Physics-Based Smart Persistence Model for Intra-Hour Solar Forecasting (PSPI) that integrates cloudy property estimation, a radiative transfer model, and cloud fraction forecasts to improve the performance of the smart persistence model. Compared to the smart persistence model, PSPI does not require additional observations of various atmospheric parameters past global horizontal irradiance, but it is customizable because additional observations, if available, can be ingested to further improve the forecast. Our results show that the PSPI outperforms the persistence and smart persistence model on 5-minute, 15-minute, and 30-minute forecast horizons. The software package of PSPI is flexible to users' needs and provides low computational time to run at site-specific locations across the continental United States.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian analysis for estimating statistical parameter distributions of elasto-viscoplastic material models

High temperature design methods rely on constitutive models for inelastic deformation and failure typically calibrated against the mean of experimental data without considering the associated scatter. Variability may arise from the experimental data acquisition process, from heat-to-heat material property variations, or both and need to be accurately captured to predict parameter bounds leading to efficient component design. Applying the Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method to produce statistical models capturing the underlying uncertainty in the experimental data is an area of ongoing research interest. This work varies aspects of the Bayesian MCMC method and explores their effect on the posterior parameter distributions for a uniaxial elasto-viscoplastic damage model using synthetically generated reference data. From our analysis with the uniaxial inelastic model we determine that an informed prior distribution including different types of test conditions results in more accurate posterior parameter distributions. The parameter posterior distributions, however, do not improve when increasing the number of similar experimental data. Additionally, changing the amount of scatter in the data affects the quality of the posterior distributions, especially for the less sensitive model parameters. Moreover, we perform a sensitivity study of the model parameters against the likelihood function prior to the Bayesian analysis. The results of the sensitivity analysis help to determine the reliability of the posterior distributions and reduce the dimensionality of the problem by fixing the insensitive parameters. The comprehensive study described in this work demonstrates how to efficiently apply the Bayesian MCMC methodology to capture parameter uncertainties in high temperature inelastic material models. Quantifying these uncertainties in inelastic models will improve high temperature engineering design practices and lead to safer, more effective component designs.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Resistive hose modes in tokamak runaway electron beams

Beams of energetic runaway electrons are generated during disruptions in tokamaks, and fluid models are used to study their effects on macroscale dynamics. Linear computations of a massless, runaway electron beam coupled to MHD plasma show that resistive hose instabilities grow faster than tearing modes at large resistivity. Eigenvalue results with reduced models of the resistive hose instability are compared with results from the full MHD and beam system, showing that the resistive hose decouples from any plasma response. An estimate of plasma temperature at which growth of the resistive hose dominates tearing for post-disruption DIII-D plasma parameters is in a physically relevant regime.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS2011

Time Domain Tool Validation Using ARES I-X Flight Data

The ARES I-X vehicle was launched from NASA's Kennedy Space Center (KSC) on October 28, 2009 at approximately 11:30 EDT. ARES I-X was the first test flight for NASA s ARES I launch vehicle, and it was the first non-Shuttle launch vehicle designed and flown by NASA since Saturn. The ARES I-X had a 4-segment solid rocket booster (SRB) first stage and a dummy upper stage (US) to emulate the properties of the ARES I US. During ARES I-X pre-flight modeling and analysis, six (6) independent time domain simulation tools were developed and cross validated. Each tool represents an independent implementation of a common set of models and parameters in a different simulation framework and architecture. Post flight data and reconstructed models provide the means to validate a subset of the simulations against actual flight data and to assess the accuracy of pre-flight dispersion analysis. Post flight data consists of telemetered Operational Flight Instrumentation (OFI) data primarily focused on flight computer outputs and sensor measurements as well as Best Estimated Trajectory (BET) data that estimates vehicle state information from all available measurement sources. While pre-flight models were found to provide a reasonable prediction of the vehicle flight, reconstructed models were generated to better represent and simulate the ARES I-X flight. Post flight reconstructed models include: SRB propulsion model, thrust vector bias models, mass properties, base aerodynamics, and Meteorological Estimated Trajectory (wind and atmospheric data). The result of the effort is a set of independently developed, high fidelity, time-domain simulation tools that have been cross validated and validated against flight data. This paper presents the process and results of high fidelity aerospace modeling, simulation, analysis and tool validation in the time domain.

Hough, Steven↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Systems Health Management and Prognostics Approaches for Electric Aircrafts

As more and more electric vehicles emerge in our daily operation progressively, a very critical challenge lies in the prediction of remaining driving flying time/distance for the flying vehicles. This information is important, particularly in the case of auto vehicles, because such vehicles can become self-aware, autonomously compute its own capabilities, and identify how to best plan and successfully complete vehicular missions safely. In case of electric aircrafts, computing the remaining flying time is also safety-critical, since an aircraft that runs out of power (battery charge) while in the air will eventually lose control leading to catastrophe. To facilitate and solve the prediction problem, awareness of the current health state of the system is key, since it is necessary to perform condition-based predictions. To accurately predict the future state of any system, it is required to possess knowledge of its current health state and future operational conditions. Latest achievements of data-driven algorithms in regression of complex nonlinear functions and classification tasks have generated a growing interest in artificial intelligence for industrial applications. Complex multi-physics models as well as digital twins, once purely built on physics and corresponding simplified lumped parameter iterations, can now benefit from machine learning algorithms to mitigate the lack of understanding of some complex behavior. Given models of the current and future system behavior, a general approach of model-based prognostics can solve the prediction problem and further decision-making. A systematic prediction framework is implemented to identify all possible sources of uncertainty, quantify each of them individually, and mathematically estimate their combined effect on the system-level quantity of interest, in this case, the remaining flying time/distance of the unmanned aircraft. Note - This presentation contains all previously published information.

Systems Health Managent↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Health Monitoring and Prognostics for Electric Aircrafts

Systems Health Managent↗

DOE OSTI2022

Extended real-time voltage instability identification method based on synchronized phasor measurements

This paper presents an extended adaptive approach designed to accurately estimate the Thévenin equivalent parameters using phasor measurements at a given bus for measurements lying in any of four quadrants of the PQ-plane. The improvement is achieved by using a new condition to properly update the estimated parameters after an initial guess. Based on an adaptive philosophy, the proposed approach can correctly account for the intrinsic nonlinearities of a power system, can provide a real-time estimation of Thévenin parameters, and does not require network topology knowledge. The method is validated using the Kundur 2-area system, showing estimation improvements compared to the current adaptive approach and the classical recursive least-squares method. The proposed approach is able to estimate both sides of the system with respect to the measurement bus. In addition, a data-driven voltage stability index is developed. To illustrate the performance of the proposed approach in a larger power system, a voltage stability assessment is carried out on the IEEE 39-bus system, considering the action of overexcitation limiters of generators and nonlinear loads. The proposed approach is suitable for applications that require an accurate Thévenin equivalent estimation in real-time, such as for voltage stability assessment. The new approach provides a reliable tool for the system operators to make proper and timely decisions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Lossy compression of statistical data using quantum annealer

Abstract We present a new lossy compression algorithm for statistical floating-point data through a representation learning with binary variables. The algorithm finds a set of basis vectors and their binary coefficients that precisely reconstruct the original data. The optimization for the basis vectors is performed classically, while binary coefficients are retrieved through both simulated and quantum annealing for comparison. A bias correction procedure is also presented to estimate and eliminate the error and bias introduced from the inexact reconstruction of the lossy compression for statistical data analyses. The compression algorithm is demonstrated on two different datasets of lattice quantum chromodynamics simulations. The results obtained using simulated annealing show 3–3.5 times better compression performance than the algorithm based on neural-network autoencoder. Calculations using quantum annealing also show promising results, but performance is limited by the integrated control error of the quantum processing unit, which yields large uncertainties in the biases and coupling parameters. Hardware comparison is further studied between the previous generation D-Wave 2000Q and the current D-Wave Advantage system. Our study shows that the Advantage system is more likely to obtain low-energy solutions for the problems than the 2000Q.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Dust and gas absorption in the high mass X-ray binary IGR J16318-4848

With an absorption column density on the order of 10 24 cm -2 , IGR J16318-4848 is one of the most extreme cases of a highly obscured high mass X-ray binary. In addition to the overall continuum absorption, the source spectrum exhibits a strong iron and nickel fluorescence line complex at 6.4 keV. Previous empirical modeling of these features and comparison with radiative transfer simulations raised questions about the structure and covering fraction of the absorber and the profile of the fluorescence lines. We aim at a self-consistent description of the continuum absorption, the absorption edges, and the fluorescence lines to constrain the properties of the absorbing material, such as ionization structure and geometry. We further investigate the effects of dust absorption on the observed spectra and the possibility of fluorescence emission from dust grains. We used XMM-Newton and NuSTAR spectra to first empirically constrain the incident continuum and fluorescence lines. Next we used XSTAR to construct a customized photoionization model where we vary the ionization parameter, column density, and covering fraction. In the third step we modeled the absorption and fluorescence in a dusty olivine absorber and employed both a simple analytical model for the fluorescence line emission and a Monte Carlo simulation of radiative transfer that generates line fluxes, which are very close to the observational data. Our empirical spectral modeling is in agreement with previous works. Our second model, the single gas absorber does not describe the observational data. In particular, irrespective of the ionization state or column density of the absorber, a much higher covering fraction than previously estimated is needed to produce the strong fluorescence lines and the large continuum absorption. A dusty, spherical absorber (modeled as consisting of olivine dust, although the nature of dust cannot be constrained) is able to produce the observed continuum absorption and edges. A dense, dusty absorber in the direct vicinity of the source consisting of dust offers a consistent description of both the strong continuum absorption and the strong emission features in the X-ray spectrum of IGR J16318-4848. In particular, for low optical depth of individual grains, which is the case for typical volume densities and grain size distribution models, the dust will contribute significantly to the fluorescence emission.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗