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At least 829 records · Page 46

System monitoring and diagnosis with qualitative models

A substantial foundation of tools for model-based reasoning with incomplete knowledge was developed: QSIM (a qualitative simulation program) and its extensions for qualitative simulation; Q2, Q3 and their successors for quantitative reasoning on a qualitative framework; and the CC (component-connection) and QPC (Qualitative Process Theory) model compilers for building QSIM QDE (qualitative differential equation) models starting from different ontological assumptions. Other model-compilers for QDE's, e.g., using bond graphs or compartmental models, have been developed elsewhere. These model-building tools will support automatic construction of qualitative models from physical specifications, and further research into selection of appropriate modeling viewpoints. For monitoring and diagnosis, plausible hypotheses are unified against observations to strengthen or refute the predicted behaviors. In MIMIC (Model Integration via Mesh Interpolation Coefficients), multiple hypothesized models of the system are tracked in parallel in order to reduce the 'missing model' problem. Each model begins as a qualitative model, and is unified with a priori quantitative knowledge and with the stream of incoming observational data. When the model/data unification yields a contradiction, the model is refuted. When there is no contradiction, the predictions of the model are progressively strengthened, for use in procedure planning and differential diagnosis. Only under a qualitative level of description can a finite set of models guarantee the complete coverage necessary for this performance. The results of this research are presented in several publications. Abstracts of these published papers are presented along with abtracts of papers representing work that was synergistic with the NASA grant but funded otherwise. These 28 papers include but are not limited to: 'Combined qualitative and numerical simulation with Q3'; 'Comparative analysis and qualitative integral representations'; 'Model-based monitoring of dynamic systems'; 'Numerical behavior envelopes for qualitative models'; 'Higher-order derivative constraints in qualitative simulation'; and 'Non-intersection of trajectories in qualitative phase space: a global constraint for qualitative simulation.'

Kuipers, Benjamin↗

Agent-based Modeling for the Multi-objective Optimization of Energy Production Pathways: Integrated Techno-Economics and Life Cycle Assessment

This project developed an integrated modeling framework to evaluate how purpose-grown bioenergy feedstocks could support large-scale sustainable aviation fuel production in the United States. Led by Colorado State University with project partners, the work combined geographically resolved analysis, techno-economic assessment, life cycle assessment, multi-objective optimization, and agent-based modeling to examine feedstock performance, deployment potential, land-use implications, and adoption dynamics. The overall goal was to identify practical and sustainable pathways for producing aviation fuel from feedstocks such as energy crops, woody crops, oilseeds, and algae while helping inform policy, investment, and research needs tied to national SAF goals. In essence, the project provides a systems-level assessment of the opportunities and constraints associated with scaling bioenergy-based aviation fuels in the U.S.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Shuttle cryogenic supply system optimization study. Volume 5A-1: Users manual for math models

The Integrated Math Model for Cryogenic Systems is a flexible, broadly applicable systems parametric analysis tool. The program will effectively accommodate systems of considerable complexity involving large numbers of performance dependent variables such as are found in the individual and integrated cryogen systems. Basically, the program logic structure pursues an orderly progression path through any given system in much the same fashion as is employed for manual systems analysis. The system configuration schematic is converted to an alpha-numeric formatted configuration data table input starting with the cryogen consumer and identifying all components, such as lines, fittings, and valves, each in its proper order and ending with the cryogen supply source assembly. Then, for each of the constituent component assemblies, such as gas generators, turbo machinery, heat exchangers, and accumulators, the performance requirements are assembled in input data tabulations. Systems operating constraints and duty cycle definitions are further added as input data coded to the configuration operating sequence.

Source record↗

Model predictive control of KSTAR equilibrium parameters enabled by TRANSP

Due to the complex behavior of tokamak plasmas and the importance of optimizing performance while avoiding instabilities and machine limits, plasma control algorithms are becoming increasingly dependent on sophisticated model-based control approaches. It is anticipated that the use of integrated modeling codes in the model-based control design process will reduce the amount of experimental time needed to implement new control algorithms by facilitating development of control-oriented models and enabling higher-fidelity closed-loop simulations. In this work, a reduced model is developed from a series of TRANSP simulations and is used to develop a model predictive control (MPC) algorithm for controlling important equilibrium parameters in KSTAR [1] discharges. The control algorithm uses the KSTAR neutral beam injection system and the target plasma current and plasma boundary as actuators, and optimizes the plasma stored energy, loop voltage, and internal inductance while avoiding constraints that could lead to disruptions. Higher fidelity testing of the control algorithm is performed using a flexible framework for enabling external processes to actively control plasma parameters in TRANSP simulations. Furthermore, closed-loop simulations demonstrate the ability of the control algorithm to respond to disturbances in density and confinement, handle actuator failures, and move the discharge to high non-inductive fraction conditions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Generic hypersonic vehicle performance model

An integrated computational model of a generic hypersonic vehicle was developed for the purpose of determining the vehicle's performance characteristics, which include the lift, drag, thrust, and moment acting on the vehicle at specified altitude, flight condition, and vehicular configuration. The lift, drag, thrust, and moment are developed for the body fixed coordinate system. These forces and moments arise from both aerodynamic and propulsive sources. SCRAMjet engine performance characteristics, such as fuel flow rate, can also be determined. The vehicle is assumed to be a lifting body with a single aerodynamic control surface. The body shape and control surface location are arbitrary and must be defined. The aerodynamics are calculated using either 2-dimensional Newtonian or modified Newtonian theory and approximate high-Mach-number Prandtl-Meyer expansion theory. Skin-friction drag was also accounted for. The skin-friction drag coefficient is a function of the freestream Mach number. The data for the skin-friction drag coefficient values were taken from NASA Technical Memorandum 102610. The modeling of the vehicle's SCRAMjet engine is based on quasi 1-dimensional gas dynamics for the engine diffuser, nozzle, and the combustor with heat addition. The engine has three variable inputs for control: the engine inlet diffuser area ratio, the total temperature rise through the combustor due to combustion of the fuel, and the engine internal expansion nozzle area ratio. The pressure distribution over the vehicle's lower aft body surface, which acts as an external nozzle, is calculated using a combination of quasi 1-dimensional gas dynamic theory and Newtonian or modified Newtonian theory. The exhaust plume shape is determined by matching the pressure inside the plume, calculated from the gas dynamic equations, with the freestream pressure, calculated from Newtonian or Modified Newtonian theory. In this manner, the pressure distribution along the vehicle after body expansion surface is then determined. The aerodynamic modeling, the engine modeling, and the exhaust plume analysis are described in more detail. A description of the computer code used to perform the above calculations is given and an input/output example is then given. The computer code is available on a Macintosh floppy disk.

Chavez, Frank R.↗

Modeling the Energy Use of a Connected and Automated Transportation System (Poster)

Early research points to large potential impacts of connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) on transportation energy use - dramatic savings, increased use, or anything in between. Due to a lack of suitable data and integrated modeling tools to explore these complex future systems, analyses to date have relied on simple combinations of isolated effects. This poster proposes a framework for modeling the potential energy implications from increasing penetration of CAV technologies and for assessing technology and policy options to steer them toward favorable energy outcomes. Current CAV modeling challenges include estimating behavior change, understanding potential vehicle-to-vehicle interactions, and assessing traffic flow and vehicle use under different automation scenarios. To bridge these gaps and develop a picture of potential future automated systems, NREL is integrating existing modeling capabilities with additional tools and data inputs to create a more fully integrated CAV assessment toolkit.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

The Integrated Airport Competition Model, 1998

This paper addresses recent model development by the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) and Hague Consulting Group (HCG) concerning long-distance travel. Long-distance travel demand is growing very quickly and raising a great deal of economic and policy issues. There is increasing competition among the main Western European airports, and smaller, regional airports are fighting for market share. New modes of transport, such as high speed rail, are also coming into the picture and affect the mode split for medium distance transport within Europe. Developments such as these are demanding the attention of policy makers and a tool is required for their analysis. For DGCA, Hague Consulting Group has developed a model system to provide answers to the policy questions posed by these expected trends, and to identify areas where policy makers can influence the traveller choices. The development of this model system, the Integrated Airport Competition Model/integraal Luchthaven Competitie Model (ILCM), began in 1992. Since that time the sub-models, input data and user interface have been expanded, updated and improved. HCG and DGCA have transformed the ILCM from a prototype into an operational forecasting tool.

Veldhuis, J.↗

The Integrated Airport Competition Model, 1998

This paper addresses recent model development by the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) and Hague Consulting Group (HCG) concerning long-distance travel, Long-distance travel demand is growing very quickly and raising a great deal of economic and policy issues. There is increasing competition among the main Western European airports, and smaller, regional airports are fighting for market share. New modes of transport, such as high speed rail, arc also coming into the picture and affect the mode split for medium distance transport within Europe. Developments such as these are demanding the attention of policy makers and a tool is required for their analysis. For DGCA, Hague Consulting Group has developed a model system to provide answers to the policy questions posed by these expected trends, and to identify areas where policy makers can influence the traveller choices. The development of this model system, the Integrated Airport Competition Model/Integral Luchthaven Competitive Model (ILCM), began in 1992. Since that time the sub-models, input data and user interface have been expanded, updated and improved. HCG and DGCA have transformed the ILCM from a prototype into an operational forecasting tool.

Veldhuis, J.↗

Exploring the effect of ELM and code-coupling frequencies on plasma and material modeling of dynamic recycling in divertors

Abstract Integrated modeling of plasma-surface interactions provides a comprehensive and self-consistent description of the system, moving the field closer to developing predictive and design capabilities for plasma facing components. One such workflow, including descriptions for the scrape-off-layer plasma, ion-surface interactions and the sub-surface evolution, was previously used to address steady-state scenarios and has recently been extended to incorporate time-dependence and two-way information flow. The new model can address dynamic recycling in transient scenarios, such as the application presented in this paper: the evolution of W samples pre-damaged by helium and exposed to ELMy H-mode plasmas in the DIII-D DiMES. A first set of simulations explored the effect of ELM frequency. This study was discussed in detail in this conference’s proceedings and is summarized here. The 2nd set of simulations, which is the focus of this paper, explores the effect of code-coupling frequency. These simulations include initial SOLPS solutions converged to the inter-ELM state, ion impact energy ( E in ) and angles ( A in ) calculated by hPIC2, and an improved heat transfer description in Xolotl. The model predicts increases in particle fluxes and decreases in heat fluxes by 10%–20% with the coupling time-step. Compared with the first set of simulations, the less shallow impact angle leads to smaller reflection rates and significant D implantation. The higher fraction of implanted flux (and deeper), in particular during ELMs, increases the accumulated D content in the W near-surface region. Future expansion of the workflow includes coupling to hPIC2 and GITR to ensure accurate descriptions of E in and A in , and W impurity transport.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Integrating a Water Tracer Model Into WRF‐Hydro for Characterizing the Effect of Lateral Flow in Hydrologic Simulations

Abstract Most current land models approximate terrestrial hydrological processes as one‐dimensional vertical flow, neglecting lateral water movement from ridges to valleys. Such lateral flow is fundamental at catchment scales and becomes crucial for finer‐scale land models. To test the effect of incorporating lateral flow toward three‐dimensional representations of hydrological processes in the next generation land models, we integrate a water tracer model into the WRF‐Hydro framework to track water movement from precipitation to discharge and evapotranspiration. This hydrologic‐tracer integrated system allows us to identify the key mechanisms by which lateral flow affects the flow paths and transit times in WRF‐Hydro. By comparing modeling experiments with and without lateral routing in two contrasting catchments, we determine the impacts of lateral flow on the transit times of precipitation event‐water. Results show that with limited hydrologic connectivity, lateral flow extends the transit times by reducing (increasing) event‐water drainage loss (accumulation) in ridges (valleys) and allowing reinfiltration of infiltration‐excess flow, which is missing in most land models. On the contrary with high hydrologic connectivity, lateral flow can effectively accelerate the water release to streams and reduce the transit time. However, the transit times are substantially underestimated by the model compared with isotope‐derived estimates, indicating model limitations in representing flow paths and transit times. This study provides some insights on the fundamental differences in terrestrial hydrology simulated by land models with and without lateral flow representation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A structure-based model of semantic integrity constraints for relational data bases

Data base management systems (DBMSs) are in widespread use because of the ease and flexibility with which users access large volumes of data. Ensuring data accuracy through integrity constraints is a central aspect of DBMS use. However, many DBMSs still lack adequate integrity support. In additon, a comprehensive theoretical basis for such support the role of a constraint classification system - has yet to be developed. This paper presents a formalism that classifies semantic integrity constraints based on the structure of the relational model. Integrity constraints are characterized by the portion of the data base structure they access, whether one or more relations, attributes, or tuples. Thus, the model is completely general, allowing the arbitrary specification of any constraint. Examples of each type of constraint are illustrated using a small engineering data base, and various implementation issues are discussed.

Rasdorf, William J.↗

Self-consistent investigation of density fueling needs on ITER and CFETR utilizing the new Pellet Ablation Module

Abstract Self-consistent modeling using the stability, transport, equilibrium, and pedestal (STEP) workflow in the OMFIT integrated modeling framework (predicting pedestal with EPED, core profiles with TGYRO, current profile with ONETWO, and EFIT for equilibrium) suggests ITER and future devices such as China Fusion Engineering Test Reactor (CFETR) Zhuang et al (2019 Nucl. Fusion 59 112010) will benefit from high-density operation (Greenwald limit fraction f g w ≈ 0.7−1.3). Regimes with an operational density near the Greenwald limit will likely need peaked density profiles so that the pedestal density remains below the Greenwald limit. Peaked density profiles can be achieved with the help of pellet injection. A flexible Pellet Ablation Module (PAM), which predicts the density source based on a comprehensive analytical pellet ablation model, has been developed for predicting pellet fueling for transport studies, and has been incorporated into the STEP workflow for predictive modeling. This workflow is applied to DIII-D and finds good agreement with experiments. On ITER the effect of pellet fueling is examined in an advanced inductive scenario, where a fusion gain of up to Q = 9 is predicted with strong central pellet fueling. On CFETR, with a mid-radius density source, an average of 1.5 × 10 22 electrons s −1 are required to achieve the density and temperature profiles necessary for the 1000 MW advanced scenario with a tritium burn-up fraction of ∼ 3 % .

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Numerical Analysis of the Effect of Infrared Radiation on Cryogenic Inertial Confinement Fusion Targets

The present work applies the finite element method to calculate the maximum allowable time that cryogenic inertial confinement fusion (ICF) targets can be exposed to infrared radiation (IR). Hence, a 3-D numerical model integrated with discrete coordinate radiation model was developed to investigate the influence of transmittance of the laser entrance holes (LEHs) and boundary conditions on the temperature field distribution and the maximum DT layer deterioration time for CH, Be, and diamond capsules. Our study shows that introducing such a radiation model can accurately obtain more detailed spatial and temporal distribution information in the ICF targets. The simulation results demonstrate that the Be and diamond capsules provided much better temperature field homogenization than the CH capsule under equivalent boundary conditions, but the CH capsule was heated more by IR radiation than the Be and diamond. In addition, the maximum DT layer deterioration time was significantly increased to 3 s when decreasing the transmittance of the LEH from 0.2 to 0.01. However, either reducing the capsule IR absorption or increasing the inner hohlraum IR absorption demonstrated no conclusive increase in the maximum DT layer deterioration time. These results are expected to provide useful parameters in the design of cryogenic targets and shroud systems.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Internal transport barrier triggered by non-linear lower hybrid wave deposition under condition of beam-driven toroidal rotation

By using gyro-Landau fluid transport model (GLF23), time-dependent integrated modeling is carried out using TRANSP to explore the dynamic process of internal transport barrier (ITB) formation in the neutral beam heating discharges. When the current profile is controlled by LHCD (lower hybrid current drive), with appropriate neutral beam injection, the nonlinear interplay between the transport determined gradients in the plasma temperature (T{sub i,e}) and toroidal velocity (V{sub ϕ}) and the E×B flow shear (including q-profile) produces transport bifurcations, generating spontaneously a stepwise growing ITB. In the discharge, the constraints imposed by the wave propagation condition causes interplay of the LH driven current distribution with the plasma configuration modification, which constitutes non-linearity in the LH wave deposition. The non-linear effects cause bifurcation in LHCD, generating two distinct quasi-stationary reversed magnetic shear configurations. The change of current profile during the transition period between the two quasi-stationary states results in increase of the E×B shearing flow arising from toroidal rotation. The turbulence transport suppression by sheared E×B flow during the ITB development is analysed, and the temporal evolution of some parameters characterized the plasma confinement is examined. Ample evidence shows that onset of the ITB development is correlated with the enhancement of E×B shearing rate caused by the bifurcation in LHCD. It is suggested that the ITB triggering is associated with the non-linear effects of the LH power deposition.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Establishing MICHCARB, a geological carbon sequestration research and education center for Michigan, implemented through the Michigan Geological Repository for Research and Education, part of the Department of Geosciences at Western Michigan University

The Michigan Geological Repository for Research and Education (MGRRE), part of the Department of Geosciences at Western Michigan University (WMU) at Kalamazoo, Michigan, established MichCarb—a geological carbon sequestration resource center by: • Archiving and maintaining a current reference collection of carbon sequestration published literature • Developing statewide and site-specific digital research databases for Michigan’s deep geological formations relevant to CO2 storage, containment and potential for enhanced oil recovery • Producing maps and tables of physical properties as components of these databases • Compiling all information into a digital atlas • Conducting geologic and fluid flow modeling to address specific predictive uses of CO2 storage and enhanced oil recovery, including compiling data for geological and fluid flow models, formulating models, integrating data, and running the models; applying models to specific predictive uses of CO2 storage and enhanced oil recovery • Conducting technical research on CO2 sequestration and enhanced oil recovery through basic and applied research of characterizing Michigan oil and gas and saline reservoirs for CO2 storage potential volume, injectivity and containment. Based on our research, we have concluded that the Michigan Basin has excellent saline aquifer (residual entrapment) and CO2/Enhanced oil recovery related (CO2/EOR; buoyant entrapment) geological carbon sequestration potential with substantial, associated incremental oil production potential. These storage reservoirs possess at least satisfactory injectivity and reliable, permanent containment resulting from associated, thick, low permeability confining layers. Saline aquifer storage resource estimates in the two major residual entrapment, reservoir target zones (Lower Paleozoic Sandstone and Middle Paleozoic carbonate and sandstone reservoirs) are in excess of 70-80 Gmt (at an overall 10% storage efficiency factor; an approximately P50 probability range for all formations using DOE-NETL, 2010, storage resource estimation methodology). Incremental oil production resulting from successful implementation of CO2/EOR for the highest potential Middle Paleozoic reef reservoirs (Silurian, Northern Niagaran Reef trend) in Michigan is estimated at 130 to over 200 MMBO (22-33 Mm3). In addition, between 200 and 400 Mmt of CO2 could be sequestered in the course of successful deployment of CO2/EOR in the northern reef trend’s largest depleted (primary production) oil fields (those that have produced in excess of 500,000 BO; 80,000 m3of oil). • Effecting technology transfer to members of industry and governmental agencies by establishing an Internet Website at which all data, reports and results are accessible; publishing results in relevant journals; conducting technology transfer workshops as part of our role as the Michigan Center of the Petroleum Technology Transfer Council or any successor organization.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Managing the Electricity-Gas Interface: Current Environment and Emerging Solutions

Natural gas generators are now the largest producers of electricity in the United States and the largest single end-use consumer of natural gas. Natural gas markets, which first developed to meet commercial and residential heating demands during winter months, are now entwined with electricity markets, which developed when natural gas provided a much lower fraction of total fuel supply for the electricity market. More coordination, both in daily operations and long-term planning, is required to ensure the continued supply of reliable electricity and natural gas. This report provides an overview of the evolution and current state of electricity and natural gas markets in the United States and summarizes the ways in which the two industries interact. The report describes areas warranting greater coordination between the natural gas and electricity industries. This report also discusses the current state of natural gas and electricity models and the need for integrated models that include dynamic simulations of pipeline operations, especially when large amounts of variable generation exists in the electrical system. It outlines current modeling work being done to better simulate operations and planning of both systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Demonstration System for Geological Thermal Energy Storage of Concentrating Solar Thermal

Energy storage is increasingly necessary as variable energy technologies are deployed. Seasonal energy storage can shift energy generation from the summer to the winter, but these technologies must have extremely large energy capacities and low costs. Geological Thermal Energy Storage (GeoTES) is proposed as a solution for long-term energy storage [1]. Excess thermal energy can be stored in permeable reservoirs such as aquifers and depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs for several months. The energy capacity cost of GeoTES is very low which makes it suitable for both daily- and seasonal storage of Concentrating Solar Thermal (CST) energy, thus enabling CST to provide value to electricity markets and thermal energy off-takers. A CST-GeoTES demonstration system has been funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, Solar Energy Technology Office. In this article, we will describe this demonstration system and progress that has been made in its development. The demonstration system will comprise a 2 MWth parabolic trough with an 8m aperture developed by Gossamer Space Frames, seven wells, and a 100 kWe power cycle. The demonstration system will be deployed in Kern County, California by Premier Resource Management. A techno-economic model for CST-GeoTES systems has also been developed [3] and is applied to the demonstration system and its planned future expansion. The model integrates the output of specialist models of each subsystem, which enables the performance and cost of both the subsurface and surface systems to be captured. Off-design models enable the performance to be evaluated at each hour of the year, before being aggregated to evaluate the economic potential of CST-GeoTES. Initial analysis indicates that CST-GeoTES can provide long duration energy storage capabilities with low marginal costs of energy capacity - leading to a low value of Levelized Cost of Storage (LCOS) compared to alternative technologies, see Figure 2. In this article, we investigate the cost and performance of the specific demonstration site being developed by PRM and explore a range of operational profiles that can deliver different value streams, such as daily and seasonal storage, capacity, and resiliancy.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗