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DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of the economic implications of varied pressure drawdown strategies generated using a real-time, rapid predictive, multi-fidelity model for unconventional oil and gas wells

Experience has suggested that pressure maintenance in hydraulically fractured reservoirs via lower, more sustained production drawdowns may offer improved cumulative recovery and overall resource extraction efficiency compared to more rapid drawdown approaches aimed at generating high initial production. However, given the inherent variability of oil and natural gas markets, operators pursue production strategies that maximize profitability over resource extraction efficiency. This study focuses on evaluating the implications of contrasting pressure drawdown strategies on the long-term production and resulting economics for a real, producing unconventional gas well in the Marcellus Shale of the Appalachian Basin using a techno-economic analysis approach. Our research combines elements of well-specific horizontal well design, production forecasting, equipment sizing and capital cost estimation, operating cost estimation, and revenue and tax calculations. Gas production forecast outlook scenarios were generated under varying pressure drawdowns using two approaches: 1) a novel physics-informed machine learning workflow and 2) traditional reservoir simulation. A discounted cash flow model was used to evaluate the resulting economic implications for each drawdown scenario—generating output for exploring the coupled effect of factors like the timing and volume of gas production, prevailing economic and market conditions for natural gas, and overall estimated ultimate recovery on profitability metrics such as internal rate of return and net present value. Results show that there is potential to maximize the cumulative gas produced in the specific case study well by employing a lower pressure drawdown. Conversely, the greatest profitability is achieved using rapid drawdown as signified by a small, specific subset of our outlook scenarios. On an averaging basis, we find that the combinations of highest cumulative producing and most profitable scenarios occur under lower drawdowns with long (>40 years) producing timeframes, but require higher relative gas price and lower discounting considerations. Further, the machine learning predictive outlooking capability proved effective for enabling rapid generation of a multitude of scenario forecasts. As a result, a variety of prominent example cases could be generated to strike the balance of greater productivity and economic return given their associated producing features and economic conditions when compared to similar producing scenarios—critical insight that offers improved decision support for unconventional oil and gas operations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS1989

Carotid baroreflex response following 30 days exposure to simulated microgravity

The mechanism of the carotid-baroreflex response to weightlessness was investigated in human subjects exposed to simulated microgravity (30 days of 6-day head-down bed rest followed by 5 days of recovery). Baroreceptor-cardiac reflex responses were elicited by a complex sequence of pressure changes delivered to a neck chamber device. The shape of the sigmoid baroreceptor-cardiac response curve was examined for alterations and the occurrence of resetting, as well as for a possible association of the impaired baroreflex function with hypotension during the postexposure orthostatic stress. It was found that the exposure to head-down bed rest caused a significant shift on the R-R interval axis, which paralleled reductions and elevations in baseline HR such that the baseline R-R (operational point) remained in the same position on the response curve. This shift in the location of the reflex relation indicates a significant resetting of the carotid baroreceptors, which may represent an appropriate adaptation which contributes to the maintenance of a constant resting arterial blood pressure before, during, and after bed rest, observed in these study.

Convertino, V. A.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Cloud Property Retrieval and 3D Radiative Transfer

Cloud thickness and photon mean-free-path together determine the scale of "radiative smoothing" of cloud fluxes and radiances. This scale is observed as a change in the spatial spectrum of cloud radiances, and also as the "halo size" seen by off beam lidar such as THOR and WAIL. Such of beam lidar returns are now being used to retrieve cloud layer thickness and vertical scattering extinction profile. We illustrate with recent measurements taken at the Oklahoma ARM site, comparing these to the-dependent 3D simulations. These and other measurements sensitive to 3D transfer in clouds, coupled with Monte Carlo and other 3D transfer methods, are providing a better understanding of the dependence of radiation on cloud inhomogeneity, and to suggest new retrieval algorithms appropriate for inhomogeneous clouds. The international "Intercomparison of 3D Radiation Codes" or I3RC, program is coordinating and evaluating the variety of 3D radiative transfer methods now available, and to make them more widely available. Information is on the Web at: http://i3rc.gsfc.nasa.gov/. Input consists of selected cloud fields derived from data sources such as radar, microwave and satellite, and from models involved in the GEWEX Cloud Systems Studies. Output is selected radiative quantities that characterize the large-scale properties of the fields of radiative fluxes and heating. Several example cloud fields will be used to illustrate. I3RC is currently implementing an "open source" 3d code capable of solving the baseline cases. Maintenance of this effort is one of the goals of a new 3DRT Working Group under the International Radiation Commission. It is hoped that the 3DRT WG will include active participation by land and ocean modelers as well, such as 3D vegetation modelers participating in RAMI.

Cahalan, Robert F.↗

DOE OSTI2016

Development of a Thin Film Primary Surface Heat Exchanger for Advanced Power Cycles

This project objective is to develop a high-temperature design upgrade for an existing primary surface heat exchanger so that the redesigned hardware is capable of operation in CO 2 at temperatures up to 1,510°F (821°C) and pressure differentials up to 130 psi (9 bar). The heat exchanger is proposed for use as a recuperator in an advanced low-pressure oxy-fuel Brayton cycle that is predicted to achieve over 50% thermodynamic efficiency, although the heat exchanger could also be used in other high-temperature, low-differential pressure cycles. This report describes the progress to date, which includes continuing work performed to select and test new candidate materials for the recuperator redesign, final mechanical and thermal performance analysis results of various redesign concepts, and the preliminary design of a test loop for the redesigned recuperator including a budgetary estimate for detailed test loop design, procurement, and test operation. A materials search was performed in order to investigate high-temperature properties of many candidate materials, including high-temperature strength and nickel content. These properties were used to rank the candidate materials, resulting in a reduced list of nine materials for corrosion testing. Multiple test rigs were considered and analyzed for short-term corrosion testing and Thermal Gravimetric Analysis (TGA) was selected as the most cost-effective option for evaluating corrosion resistance of the candidate materials. In addition, tantalum, niobium, and chromium coatings were identified as potential options for increased corrosion resistance. The test results show that many materials exhibit relatively low weight gain rates, and that niobium and tantalum coatings may improve corrosion resistance for many materials, while chromium coatings appear to oxidize and debond quickly. Metallurgical analysis of alloys was also performed, showing evidence of intergranular attack in 282 that may cause long-term reliability problems in CO 2 service at these temperatures. However, long-term testing in a flowing environment is recommended in order to understand accurately the severity of the attack. Detailed economic modeling of the existing air cycle recuperator and CO 2 cycle recuperator options was also completed, including costs for material, fabrication, fuel, maintenance, and operation. The analysis results show that the increased capital cost for high-temperature materials may be offset by higher cycle efficiencies, decreasing the overall lifetime cost of the system. The economic analysis also examines costs associated with increased pressure drop and material changes for two redesign options. These results show that, even with slightly reduced performance and/or higher material costs, the lifetime cost per energy production may still be reduced by over 12%. The existing recuperator design information was provided by Solar Turbines, Inc. via several models, drawings, and design handoff meetings. Multiple fluid/thermal and structural models were created in order to analyze critical recuperator performance and mechanical strength in critical areas throughout the redesign process. These models were analyzed for a baseline condition (consistent with current Mercury 50 operation) for validation purposes. Results are presented for heat transfer coefficients and pressure drops, matching well with the existing operational data. Simulation of higher-temperature CO 2 conditions was also performed, showing a slight expected increase in both heat transfer and pressure drop. Mechanical analysis results for critical areas on the cross-flow and counter-flow sheets have also been obtained for air and CO 2 cases. These results show similar stresses in both cases but significantly reduced safety factors for the CO 2 case due to reduced yield and creep rupture strengths of alloy 625 at the higher temperatures. A concept brainstorm session and initial down-selection were completed in order to identify promising redesign options for further analysis. Detailed analysis of all promising redesign options was performed via finite element and computational fluid dynamic simulations in order to characterize mechanical and thermal-fluid performance of each option. These options included material change, various sheet thickness configurations, pitch and phasing of cross-flow and counter-flow sheets, and separator sheets. The analysis results have identified two viable redesign options that maintain existing safety margins optimally through a material change to Haynes 282 and (A) sheet thickness increases of 40% on the counter-flow sheet and 75% on the hot side cross-flow corrugation sheet or (B) addition of a separator sheet in the counter-flow section while maintaining the original counter-flow sheet thickness and increasing the cross-flow corrugation sheet thickness by 90% to account for the increase in cell height. While both options satisfy mechanical stress constraints, the separator sheet design has a higher part count, slightly reduced heat transfer, and slightly higher pressure drop than the first option and is not preferred. Finally, several test loop concepts have been developed for different full-scale and reduced-scale recuperator testing options. For each option, various loop components, such as heat exchangers, valves, heaters, and compressors, were evaluated in an effort to maximize utilization of existing resources. All concepts utilize an existing 3-MW CO 2 compressor, heater, and loop coolers, but the concepts vary by incorporating different amounts of new equipment for achieving various flow rates (all concepts operate at design pressure and temperature). The third concept achieves a 1 kg/s test without purchasing any costly equipment (coolers, heaters, blowers, etc.). Since the stacked cell design of the recuperator results in the same flow conditions at each core cell (even for a reduced-scale test). Thus, test loop Concept #3 was selected for the preliminary design. This loop design is detailed within the report, culminating in a budgetary estimate of $1,013,000.00 for the detailed design, construction, commissioning, and operation of a high-temperature recuperator test loop.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

NASA NTRS2010

A Unified Nonlinear Adaptive Approach for Detection and Isolation of Engine Faults

A challenging problem in aircraft engine health management (EHM) system development is to detect and isolate faults in system components (i.e., compressor, turbine), actuators, and sensors. Existing nonlinear EHM methods often deal with component faults, actuator faults, and sensor faults separately, which may potentially lead to incorrect diagnostic decisions and unnecessary maintenance. Therefore, it would be ideal to address sensor faults, actuator faults, and component faults under one unified framework. This paper presents a systematic and unified nonlinear adaptive framework for detecting and isolating sensor faults, actuator faults, and component faults for aircraft engines. The fault detection and isolation (FDI) architecture consists of a parallel bank of nonlinear adaptive estimators. Adaptive thresholds are appropriately designed such that, in the presence of a particular fault, all components of the residual generated by the adaptive estimator corresponding to the actual fault type remain below their thresholds. If the faults are sufficiently different, then at least one component of the residual generated by each remaining adaptive estimator should exceed its threshold. Therefore, based on the specific response of the residuals, sensor faults, actuator faults, and component faults can be isolated. The effectiveness of the approach was evaluated using the NASA C-MAPSS turbofan engine model, and simulation results are presented.

Tang, Liang↗

DOE OSTI2023

Assessment of ITER radiation environment during the remote-handling operation of In-Vessel components with D1SUNED

During ITER operational life, a remote-handled cask will be used to transfer In-Vessel components to the Hot Cell for maintenance, storage and decommissioning purposes. Due to the distribution of penetrations for system allocation in the facility, the radiation field of each transfer operation presents a high spatial variability; all operations must be studied independently for workers and electronics protection. In this paper, we present a fully representative approach to describe the radiation environment during the complete remote-handling scenario of In-Vessel components in the ITER facility. The impact of all relevant radiation sources during different stages of the operation is addressed. As-built structures and 2020 baseline designs are considered to produce the most detailed neutronics model of the Tokamak Complex, the 400,000-tonne civil structure hosting the tokamak, up to date. Novel capabilities of the D1SUNED code have allowed to compute the integral dose, the dose rate and the photon-induced neutron flux of both moving and static radiation sources. Time bins are included in the simulations to compute the dose rate caused by In-Vessel components at all positions along the transfer. The time evolution of the dose rate is built in video format with a 1-m resolution, especially valuable for hot-spots identification.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Completion of initial reduced-order model for flammable refrigerant dispersal in residential spaces

Environmental regulations aimed at reducing global warming impacts of HVAC&R refrigerants have resulted in the phase-out of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) in 2010 and hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) by 2030 in developed countries with additional restrictions on the use of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) set to take effect in 2036. Many of the remaining alternative refrigerants that have lower global warming potential (GWP) and that are suitable for use in HVAC&R systems (e.g., propane, difluoromethane) are flammable to some degree. Flammable refrigerants introduce new challenges and hazards to property and personal safety related to potential deflagration during system maintenance or due to leakage of the refrigerant accumulating in the conditioned space. Standards have been developed to set maximum charge limits for flammable refrigerants in HVAC&R systems; however, existing safety standards and codes still restrict their use. The bodies that maintain and update these codes need publicly available, science-based information to enable credible guidelines for setting safe charge limits for different flammable refrigerants in different HVAC&R applications. In 2016, the Alliance for Responsible Atmospheric Policy, the Air-Conditioning Heating and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI), ASHRAE, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), and the State of California began efforts to develop such information. As part of this effort, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) began the current, ongoing project to examine imposed charge limits for flammable refrigerants and identify reasonable adjustments to these limits when found appropriate. Past tasks under this project have included development of experimentally vetted, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation approaches to study the results of leakage of flammable refrigerants from various HVAC&R systems into different types of commercial and residential spaces. In this report, we discuss recent efforts to develop a predictive model of the flammable volume fraction and accumulated refrigerant mass in a single-room residential space resulting from the leak of a flammable refrigerant from a small room air conditioning (RAC) unit. The eventual goal is development of a model suitable for public release which could simulate a range of scenarios. In discussions with the AHRTI Flammable Refrigerant Subcommittee (FRS) at the beginning of this effort, a total of 9 input parameters were chosen for consideration including room area, room/door opening area, ventilation fan flow rate, unit/leak height, leak area, leak rate, total refrigerant charge, refrigerant molecular weight, and state of the unit fan.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2016

MCNP Progress for the Nuclear Criticality Safety Program

The DOE/NNSA Nuclear Criticality Safety Program (NCSP) supports research, development, maintenance, and verification and validation of the MCNP{sup R} Monte Carlo radiation transport software package for nuclear criticality safety (NCS) customers within DOE/NNSA. The MCNP Monte Carlo code has been used for high-fidelity analyses of criticality safety problems since the 1970's. This paper summarizes MCNP progress during FY 2015 and early FY 2016. Activities and accomplishments are summarized in five major areas: - MCNP6 status, - Whisper status, - Verification and validation testing, - User support and training, - Work in progress. (authors)

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Extending ISS Life Beyond 2030

The United States On-orbit Segment (USOS) of the International Space Station (ISS) was designed to meet a 15-year on-orbit life. Since the first hardware was launched in late 1998, the ISS would have reached its end of life in 2013. With the realization that the ISS would be needed well into the next decade, and beyond, a multi-disciplinary effort was undertaken to extend the ISS’ life through 2028 and to show that further extension to 2040 and beyond is not only feasible but achievable. Currently, NASA and the ISS international partners have agreed to extend its operations through 2030. This collaborative effort ensures that the ISS will continue to serve as a hub for scientific research, international cooperation, and educational endeavors for the next decade. Maintaining a continuous human presence in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) is desirable for testing new LEO, lunar, and deep-space technologies; conducting scientific research in micro-gravity for the benefit of life on Earth; and enabling a seamless transition of capabilities to one or more commercially owned and operated destinations. This paper provides an overview of the ISS life extension project with a particular focus on the analytical approach used to assess the primary structure. This analytical approach includes future operations planning, critical location screening, on-orbit dynamic load simulation, on-orbit optical property degradation studies, on-orbit thermal analyses, spectra generation, crack model idealization, fracture analyses, and post processing. Structural life results and identification of the most critical on-orbit events are presented. Also addressed are life extension approaches for other affected sub-systems, including: 1. Secondary Structure. 2. Materials. Evaluations consider environmental exposure to atomic oxygen, ionizing and gamma radiation, fluids, etc. Life limited materials, wear, and usage effects are also considered. 3. Environmental Control and Life Support Systems, including oxygen supply and generation, water recovery and management, and regenerative hardware. Evaluations are performed to determine which hardware can be run to failure and which are assessed for life extension. 4. Electrical power system. ISS is powered by eight channels of solar arrays and an electrical energy storage system providing 357 kWh power. Power generation and balance analyses are performed considering hardware degradation and increasing power demand. 5. Logistics and maintenance. Analyses are performed to determine critical spares required to maintain functionality. Consideration is given to supply chain health, obsolescence issues, onboard stowage availability, and up-mass capability. The successful life extension results have built confidence to safely operate, maintain and enhance the ISS well beyond the current decade. Extending the operational life of the ISS maintains an international presence in LEO and serves to avoid a gap in capability necessary to fulfill the exploration and research needs of NASA, international partners, and industry without interruption until a commercial space station is operational.

design life↗

DOE OSTI2017

Integration and Assessment of Component Health Prognostics in Supervisory Control Systems

Enhanced risk monitors (ERMs) for active components in advanced reactor concepts use predictive estimates of component failure to update, in real time, predictive safety and economic risk metrics. These metrics have been shown to be capable of use in optimizing maintenance scheduling and managing plant maintenance costs. Integrating this information with plant supervisory control systems increases the potential for making control decisions that utilize real-time information on component conditions. Such decision making would limit the possibility of plant operations that increase the likelihood of degrading the functionality of one or more components while maintaining the overall functionality of the plant. ERM uses sensor data for providing real-time information about equipment condition for deriving risk monitors. This information is used to estimate the remaining useful life and probability of failure of these components. By combining this information with plant probabilistic risk assessment models, predictive estimates of risk posed by continued plant operation in the presence of detected degradation may be estimated. In this paper, we describe this methodology in greater detail, and discuss its integration with a prototypic software-based plant supervisory control platform. In order to integrate these two technologies and evaluate the integrated system, software to simulate the sensor data was developed, prognostic models for feedwater valves were developed, and several use cases defined. The full paper will describe these use cases, and the results of the initial evaluation.

Ramuhalli, Pradeep↗

DOE OSTI2017

Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program Potential to Extend the Range of Established Online Monitoring Technologies, Such as Guided Waves in Nuclear Power Plant Systems

The Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program began to evaluate technologies that could be used to perform online monitoring of piping and other secondary system structural components in commercial NPPs. These online monitoring systems have the potential to identify when a more detailed inspection is needed using real-time measurements, rather than at a pre-determined inspection interval. This transition to condition-based, risk informed automated maintenance will contribute to a significant reduction of operations and maintenance costs that account for most nuclear power generation costs. This report describes the current state of research related to ultrasonic guided wave testing and its application to defect detection in commercial nuclear power plants. The report analyses the applicability of the guided wave technology to secondary piping systems and also study the potential for expanding the range of guided wave technology to include bent piping and other piping components. The ultrasonic guided waves can inspect long stretches of straight piping, however more complex geometries such as elbows, welds, and tees are causing spurious reflections and coherent noise which significantly decrease the sensitivity of the technique. The report analyses two approaches to suppression of coherent noise in guided wave systems: advanced signal processing and pattern recognition based on independent component analysis and blind source separation and hardware-based technique of piezoelectric paint which can be used to facilitate the propagation of mechanical stress waves through piping. It is demonstrated on simulated guided wave data that the independent component analysis is capable of separating different coherent noise components and segregating them from useful signal. The piezoelectric paint approach seem to be a viable alternative to the signal processing methods, however it requires significantly more complicated logistics and initial financial outlay. The future efforts will be concentrated on applying the independent component analysis to real-world guided wave data recorded by the guided wave monitoring system installed on the shell of the low-pressure feedwater heater 13A at Exelon Corporation’s Braidwood Nuclear Generating Station. Also, the joint EPRI-INL research efforts will focus on experimental evaluation of piezoelectric paint as a technique to extend the range of guided wave technology.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2015

Eddy‐driven sediment transport in the A rgentine B asin: Is the height of the Z apiola R ise hydrodynamically controlled?

Abstract In this study, we address the question whether eddy‐driven transports in the Argentine Basin can be held responsible for enhanced sediment accumulation over the Zapiola Rise, hence accounting for the existence and growth of this sediment drift. To address this question, we perform a 6 year simulation with a strongly eddying ocean model. We release two passive tracers, with settling velocities that are consistent with silt and clay size particles. Our experiments show contrasting behavior between the silt fraction and the lighter clay. Due to its larger settling velocity, the silt fraction reaches a quasisteady state within a few years, with abyssal sedimentation rates that match net input. In contrast, clay settles only slowly, and its distribution is heavily stratified, being transported mainly along isopycnals. Yet, both size classes display a significant and persistent concentration minimum over the Zapiola Rise. We show that the Zapiola Anticyclone, a strong eddy‐driven vortex that circulates around the Zapiola Rise, is a barrier to sediment transport, and hence prevents significant accumulation of sediments on the Rise. We conclude that sediment transport by the turbulent circulation in the Argentine Basin alone cannot account for the preferred sediment accumulation over the Rise. We speculate that resuspension is a critical process in the formation and maintenance of the Zapiola Rise.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2011

Orion Entry Handling Qualities Assessments

The Orion Command Module (CM) is a capsule designed to bring crew back from the International Space Station (ISS), the moon and beyond. The atmospheric entry portion of the flight is deigned to be flown in autopilot mode for nominal situations. However, there exists the possibility for the crew to take over manual control in off-nominal situations. In these instances, the spacecraft must meet specific handling qualities criteria. To address these criteria two separate assessments of the Orion CM s entry Handling Qualities (HQ) were conducted at NASA s Johnson Space Center (JSC) using the Cooper-Harper scale (Cooper & Harper, 1969). These assessments were conducted in the summers of 2008 and 2010 using the Advanced NASA Technology Architecture for Exploration Studies (ANTARES) six degree of freedom, high fidelity Guidance, Navigation, and Control (GN&C) simulation. This paper will address the specifics of the handling qualities criteria, the vehicle configuration, the scenarios flown, the simulation background and setup, crew interfaces and displays, piloting techniques, ratings and crew comments, pre- and post-fight briefings, lessons learned and changes made to improve the overall system performance. The data collection tools, methods, data reduction and output reports will also be discussed. The objective of the 2008 entry HQ assessment was to evaluate the handling qualities of the CM during a lunar skip return. A lunar skip entry case was selected because it was considered the most demanding of all bank control scenarios. Even though skip entry is not planned to be flown manually, it was hypothesized that if a pilot could fly the harder skip entry case, then they could also fly a simpler loads managed or ballistic (constant bank rate command) entry scenario. In addition, with the evaluation set-up of multiple tasks within the entry case, handling qualities ratings collected in the evaluation could be used to assess other scenarios such as the constant bank angle maintenance case. The 2008 entry assessment was divided into two sections (see Figure 1). Entry I was the first, high speed portion of a lunar return and Entry II was the second, lower speed portion of a lunar return, which is similar (but not identical) to a typical ISS return.

Bihari, B.↗

DOE OSTI2016

Building Efficiency Evaluation and Uncertainty Analysis with DOE's Asset Score Preview

Building Energy Asset Score Tool, developed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), is a program to encourage energy efficiency improvement by helping building owners and managers assess a building's energy-related systems independent of operations and maintenance. Asset Score Tool uses a simplified EnergyPlus model to provide an assessment of building systems, through minimum user inputs of basic building characteristics. Asset Score Preview is a newly developed option that allows users to assess their building's systems and the potential value of a more in-depth analysis via an even more simplified approach. This methodology provides a preliminary approach to estimating a building's energy efficiency and potential for improvement. This paper provides an overview of the methodology used for the development of Asset Score Preview and the scoring methodology.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2022

A digital twin approach to system-level fault detection and diagnosis for improved equipment health monitoring

Automating the task of fault detection and diagnosis is crucial in the effort to reduce the operation and maintenance cost in the nuclear industry. This paper describes a physics-based approach for system-level diagnosis in thermal-hydraulic systems in nuclear power plants. The inclusion of physics information allows for the creation of virtual sensors, which provide improved fault diagnosis capability. The physics information also serves to better constrain diagnostic solutions to the physical domain. As a demonstration, various test cases for fault diagnosis in a high-pressure feedwater system were considered. The use of virtual sensors allows constructing performance models for two first-point feedwater heaters which would not have been possible otherwise due to the limited sensor set. Real-time plant data provided by a utility partner were used to assess the diagnostic approach. The detection of an abnormal event immediate after a plant startup pointed to faulty behaviors in the two first-point feedwater heaters. Further, this double-blind fault diagnosis was subsequently confirmed by the plant operator. In addition, several simulated sensor fault events demonstrated the capability of our algorithms in detecting and discriminating sensor faults.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Improving estimates of transmission capital costs for utility-scale wind and solar projects to inform renewable energy policy

Estimating the overall costs of transmission needed to integrate variable renewable energy (VRE) onto the grid is challenging. An improved understanding of these transmission costs would support electricity system planning as VRE penetrations increase. This paper brackets VRE transmission capital costs using multiple approaches based on interconnection studies, actual transmission projects, capacity-expansion simulation models, and aggregated U.S. VRE-related transmission expenditures. Each approach possesses advantages and drawbacks, and combining the approaches lends confidence to the results. The resulting range of average levelized VRE transmission costs is 1– 10 dollars/MWh, which is generally lower than earlier estimates in the literature. These transmission capital costs can increase the direct plant-level levelized cost of VRE by 3%–33%, based on levelized costs of energy of 29– 56 dollars/MWh for utility-scale wind and 36–46 dollars/MWh for utility-scale solar. As VRE deployment continues to expand, policy makers can use this information to (1) assess the benefits of transmission avoidance and deferral when comparing distributed energy resources versus utility-scale projects, (2) evaluate the potential costs of large-scale public transmission investments, and (3) better analyze system-level costs of utility-scale VRE technologies. Future research can expand on the framework presented here by providing a review of operation and maintenance costs for transmission systems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS2016

Assessing Impact of Dual Sensor Enhanced Flight Vision Systems on Departure Performance

Synthetic Vision (SV) and Enhanced Flight Vision Systems (EFVS) may serve as game-changing technologies to meet the challenges of the Next Generation Air Transportation System and the envisioned Equivalent Visual Operations (EVO) concept - that is, the ability to achieve the safety and operational tempos of current-day Visual Flight Rules operations irrespective of the weather and visibility conditions. One significant obstacle lies in the definition of required equipage on the aircraft and on the airport to enable the EVO concept objective. A motion-base simulator experiment was conducted to evaluate the operational feasibility and pilot workload of conducting departures and approaches on runways without centerline lighting in visibility as low as 300 feet runway visual range (RVR) by use of onboard vision system technologies on a Head-Up Display (HUD) without need or reliance on natural vision. Twelve crews evaluated two methods of combining dual sensor (millimeter wave radar and forward looking infrared) EFVS imagery on pilot-flying and pilot-monitoring HUDs. In addition, the impact of adding SV to the dual sensor EFVS imagery on crew flight performance and workload was assessed. Using EFVS concepts during 300 RVR terminal operations on runways without centerline lighting appears feasible as all EFVS concepts had equivalent (or better) departure performance and landing rollout performance, without any workload penalty, than those flown with a conventional HUD to runways having centerline lighting. Adding SV imagery to EFVS concepts provided situation awareness improvements but no discernible improvements in flight path maintenance.

Kramer, Lynda J.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Geothermal Fault Zone and Fluid Imaging through Joint Airborne ZTEM and Ground MT Data Inversion Analysis

This project has aimed to achieve detailed electrical resistivity resolution at geothermal reservoir scales by combining airborne natural electromagnetic (EM) field surveying (ZTEM) with ground magnetotelluric (MT) measurements to approximate an airborne MT geophysical method. MT alone is relatively expensive and may have permitting challenges in sensitive areas. Airborne ZTEM field data contains only the magnetic field, requires a background assumption, and has been limited to relatively high frequencies, thus suffering uniqueness problems. Based on proto-type 2D simulations, ZTEM ambiguities may be reduced through formal incorporation with possibly sparse ground MT soundings, which we pursued in full 3D for this project. The methodology was tested at the high-temperature Roosevelt Hot Springs geothermal system, Utah, which was considered advantageous given the near total exposure of crystalline reservoir rocks across the project area. ZTEM and ground MT survey data were acquired in 2017, subcontracted to outside parties with which we have worked in the past. These included 80 remote-referenced tensor MT soundings over the Mineral Mountains and adjacent Roosevelt Hot Spring producing geothermal system. These MT stations abut later coverage of a similar number of MT stations taken for the Utah FORGE project providing excellent total data aperture to re-solve structure beneath both project areas better than either set alone. The airborne ZTEM survey covered 704 line kilometers in E-W flight lines with a 250 m line spacing. Although this survey was timed during a maintenance-related shutdown of power production at the Roosevelt Hot Springs, other noise sources difficult to identify but including two high-voltage state-scale transmission lines compromised the ZTEM survey badly leading to unusable responses. Thus, with DOE management concurrence, the project proceeded to emphasize inversion and interpretation of the joint SubTER-FORGE MT data sets with regard to the Roosevelt Hot Springs reservoir recharge and to deep heat sources for both it and the Utah FORGE EGS project area. We also investigated the joint ZTEM-MT sampling concept with data sets from the Eleven Mile Canyon prospect area donated by the U.S. Navy (A. Sabin, PoC). Inversion of the SubTER-FORGE MT data using the HexMT 3D finite element algorithm reveals a large, low-resistivity anomaly extending sub-vertically through the depth range of the crust beneath the western Mineral Mountains. The steep conductive zone connects in the lower crust to a more tabular conductor characteristic of much of the Great Basin that generally is ascribed to current mafic magmatic underplating, hybridization and fluid release. The location of the resolved anomaly relative to the recent (0.5-0.8 Ma) eruptive centers of the Mineral Mountains implicates it as remnants of the magma body which fed these centers. This structure appears to be currently feeding heat and fluids upward into the Roosevelt Hot Springs hydrothermal system, as well as heat laterally to the FORGE project area. Separate and joint inversion models were carried out for the donated Eleven Mile Canyon MT-ZTEM data set to demonstrate concept. ZTEM only inversion showed two main alteration zones in the western portion of the project area known from geological mapping. Joint inversion including an E-W profile of MT soundings sharpened these features considerably. It also resolved in much greater detail the graben related normal faulting structure of the central project area which lies at depths exceeding the sensitivity of ZTEM alone. The sparse number of MT da-ta relative to the ZTEM required upweighting the former by a factor of several, but an exact procedure awaits future research. Our final impression is that sparse MT data can improve resolution of the subsurface over that of ZTEM alone. However, well sampled MT data are to be preferred and offer the simplicity of interpreting just one data type, and possess the superior resolution capability coming with the electric field everywhere, and from their high bandwidth.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗