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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2007

Observed and Modeled HOCl Profiles in the Midlatitude Stratosphere: Implication for Ozone Loss

Vertical profiles of stratospheric HOCl calculated with a diurnal steady-state photochemical model that uses currently recommended reaction rates and photolysis cross sections underestimate observed profiles of HOCl obtained by two balloon-borne instruments, FIRS-2 (a far-infrared emission spectrometer) and MkIV (a mid-infrared, solar absorption spectrometer). Considerable uncertainty (a factor of two) persists in laboratory measurements of the rate constant (k(sub 1)) for the reaction ClO + HO2 yields HOCl + O2. Agreement between modeled and measured HOCl can be attained using a value of k(sub 1) from Stimpfle et al. (1979) that is about a factor-of-two faster than the currently recommended rate constant. Comparison of modeled and measured HOCl suggests that models using the currently recommended value for k(sub 1) may underestimate the role of the HOCl catalytic cycle for ozone depletion, important in the midlatitude lower stratosphere.

temperature dependence↗
DOE OSTI2016

A Public-Private-Acadmic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting

The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is pleased to have led a partnership to advance the state-of-the-science of solar power forecasting by designing, developing, building, deploying, testing, and assessing the SunCast™ Solar Power Forecasting System. The project has included cutting edge research, testing in several geographically- and climatologically-diverse high penetration solar utilities and Independent System Operators (ISOs), and wide dissemination of the research results to raise the bar on solar power forecasting technology. The partners include three other national laboratories, six universities, and industry partners. This public-private-academic team has worked in concert to perform use-inspired research to advance solar power forecasting through cutting-edge research to advance both the necessary forecasting technologies and the metrics for evaluating them. The project has culminated in a year-long, full-scale demonstration of provide irradiance and power forecasts to utilities and ISOs to use in their operations. The project focused on providing elements of a value chain, beginning with the weather that causes a deviation from clear sky irradiance and progresses through monitoring and observations, modeling, forecasting, dissemination and communication of the forecasts, interpretation of the forecast, and through decision-making, which produces outcomes that have an economic value. The system has been evaluated using metrics developed specifically for this project, which has provided rich information on model and system performance. Research was accomplished on the very short range (0-6 hours) Nowcasting system as well as on the longer term (6-72 hour) forecasting system. The shortest range forecasts are based on observations in the field. The shortest range system, built by Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) and based on Total Sky Imagers (TSIs) is TSICast, which operates on the shortest time scale with a latency of only a few minutes and forecasts that currently go out to about 15 min. This project has facilitated research in improving the hardware and software so that the new high definition cameras deployed at multiple nearby locations allow discernment of the clouds at varying levels and advection according to the winds observed at those levels. Improvements over “smart persistence” are about 29% for even these very short forecasts. StatCast is based on pyranometer data measured at the site as well as concurrent meteorological observations and forecasts. StatCast is based on regime-dependent artificial intelligence forecasting techniques and has been shown to improve on “smart persistence” forecasts by 15-50%. A second category of short-range forecasting systems employ satellite imagery and use that information to discern clouds and their motion, allowing them to project the clouds, and the resulting blockage of irradiance, in time. CIRACast (the system produced by the Cooperative Institute for Atmospheric Research [CIRA] at Colorado State University) was already one of the more advanced cloud motion systems, which is the reason that team was brought to this project. During the project timeframe, the CIRA team was able to advance cloud shadowing, parallax removal, and implementation of better advecting winds at different altitudes. CIRACast shows generally a 25-40% improvement over Smart Persistence between sunrise and approximately 1600 UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) . A second satellite-based system, MADCast (Multi-sensor Advective Diffusive foreCast system), assimilates data from multiple satellite imagers and profilers to assimilate a fully three-dimensional picture of the cloud into the dynamic core of WRF. During 2015, MADCast (provided at least 70% improvement over Smart Persistence, with most of that skill being derived during partly cloudy conditions. That allows advection of the clouds via the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model dynamics directly. After WRF-Solar™ showed initial success, it was also deployed in nowcasting mode with coarser runs out to 6 hours made hourly. It provided improvements on the order of 50-60% over Smart Persistence for forecasts up to 1600 UTC. The advantages of WRF-Solar-Nowcasting and MADCast were then blended to develop the new MAD-WRF model that incorporates the most important features of each of those models, both assimilating satellite cloud fields and using WRF-So far physics to develop and dissipate clouds. MAE improvements for MAD-WRF for forecasts from 3-6 hours are improved over WRF-Solar-Now by 20%. While all the Nowcasting system components by themselves provide improvement over Smart Persistence, the largest benefit is derived when they are smartly blended together by the Nowcasting Integrator to produce an integrated forecast. The development of WRF-Solar™ under this project has provided the first numerical weather prediction (NWP) model specifically designed to meet the needs of irradiance forecasting. The first augmentation improved the solar tracking algorithm to account for deviations associated with the eccentricity of the Earth’s orbit and the obliquity of the Earth. Second, WRF-Solar™ added the direct normal irradiance (DNI) and diffuse (DIF) components from the radiation parameterization to the model output. Third, efficient parameterizations were implemented to either interpolate the irradiance in between calls to the expensive radiative transfer parameterization, or to use a fast radiative transfer code that avoids computing three-dimensional heating rates but provides the surface irradiance. Fourth, a new parameterization was developed to improve the representation of absorption and scattering of radiation by aerosols (aerosol direct effect). A fifth advance is that the aerosols now interact with the cloud microphysics, altering the cloud evolution and radiative properties, an effect that has been traditionally only implemented in atmospheric computationally costly chemistry models. A sixth development accounts for the feedbacks that sub-grid scale clouds produce in shortwave irradiance as implemented in a shallow cumulus parameterization Finally, WRF-Solar™ also allows assimilation of infrared irradiances from satellites to determine the three dimensional cloud field, allowing for an improved initialization of the cloud field that increases the performance of short-range forecasts. We find that WRF-Solar™ can improve clear sky irradiance prediction by 15-80% over a standard version of WRF, depending on location and cloud conditions. In a formal comparison to the NAM baseline, WRF-Solar™ showed improvements in the Day-Ahead forecast of 22-42%. The SunCast™ system requires substantial software engineering to blend all of the new model components as well as existing publically available NWP model runs. To do this we use an expert system for the Nowcasting blender and the Dynamic Integrated foreCast (DICast®) system for the NWP models. These two systems are then blended, we use an empirical power conversion method to convert the irradiance predictions to power, then apply an analog ensemble (AnEn) approach to further tune the forecast as well as to estimate its uncertainty. The AnEn module decreased RMSE (root mean squared error) by 17% over the blended SunCast™ power forecasts and provided skill in the probabilistic forecast with a Brier Skill Score of 0.55. In addition, we have also developed a Gridded Atmospheric Forecast System (GRAFS) in parallel, leveraging cost share funds. An economic evaluation based on Production Cost Modeling in the Public Service Company of Colorado showed that the observed 50% improvement in forecast accuracy will save their customers $819,200 with the projected MW deployment for 2024. Using econometrics, NCAR has scaled this savings to a national level and shown that an annual expected savings for this 50% forecast error reduction ranges from $11M in 2015 to $43M expected in 2040 with increased solar deployment. This amounts to a $455M discounted savings over the 26 year period of analysis.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2014

A survey of pulse shape options for a revised plastic ablator ignition design

Recent experimental results using the “high foot” pulse shape for inertial confinement fusion ignition experiments on the National Ignition Facility (NIF) [Moses et al., Phys. Plasmas 16, 041006 (2009)] have shown encouraging progress compared to earlier “low foot” experiments. These results strongly suggest that controlling ablation front instability growth can significantly improve implosion performance even in the presence of persistent, large, low-mode distortions. Simultaneously, hydrodynamic growth radiography experiments have confirmed that ablation front instability growth is being modeled fairly well in NIF experiments. It is timely then to combine these two results and ask how current ignition pulse shapes could be modified to improve one-dimensional implosion performance while maintaining the stability properties demonstrated with the high foot. This paper presents such a survey of pulse shapes intermediate between the low and high foot extremes in search of an intermediate foot optimum. Of the design space surveyed, it is found that a higher picket version of the low foot pulse shape shows the most promise for improved compression without loss of stability.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enhanced production of 60 Fe in massive stars

Massive stars are a major source of chemical elements in the cosmos, ejecting freshly produced nuclei through winds and core-collapse supernova explosions into the interstellar medium. Among the material ejected, long-lived radioisotopes, such as 60 Fe (iron) and 26 Al (aluminum), offer unique signs of active nucleosynthesis in our galaxy. There is a long-standing discrepancy between the observed 60 Fe/ 26 Al ratio by γ-ray telescopes and predictions from supernova models. This discrepancy has been attributed to uncertainties in the nuclear reaction networks producing 60 Fe, and one reaction in particular, the neutron-capture on 59 Fe. Here we present experimental results that provide a strong constraint on this reaction. We use these results to show that the production of 60 Fe in massive stars is higher than previously thought, further increasing the discrepancy between observed and predicted 60 Fe/ 26 Al ratios. The persisting discrepancy can therefore not be attributed to nuclear uncertainties, and points to issues in massive-star models.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2013

SUPERMASSIVE BLACK HOLE BINARY EVOLUTION IN AXISYMMETRIC GALAXIES: THE FINAL PARSEC PROBLEM IS NOT A PROBLEM

During a galaxy merger, the supermassive black hole (SMBH) in each galaxy is thought to sink to the center of the potential and form an SMBH binary; this binary can eject stars via three-body scattering, bringing the SMBHs ever closer. In a static spherical galaxy model, the binary stalls at a separation of about a parsec after ejecting all the stars in its loss cone-this is the well-known final parsec problem. Earlier work has shown that the centrophilic orbits in triaxial galaxy models are key in refilling the loss cone at a high enough rate to prevent the black holes from stalling. However, the evolution of binary SMBHs has never been explored in axisymmetric galaxies, so it is not clear if the final parsec problem persists in these systems. Here we use a suite of direct N-body simulations to follow SMBH binary evolution in galaxy models with a range of ellipticity. For the first time, we show that mere axisymmetry can solve the final parsec problem; we find the SMBH evolution is independent of N for an axis ratio of c/a = 0.8, and that the SMBH binary separation reaches the gravitational radiation regime for c/a = 0.75.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Impacts of intentional mycoplasma contamination on CHO cell bioreactor cultures

Mycoplasma contamination events in biomanufacturing facilities can result in loss of production and costly cleanups. Mycoplasma may survive in mammalian cell cultures with only subtle changes to the culture and may penetrate the 0.2 µm filters often used in the primary clarification of harvested cell culture fluid. Culture cell-based and indicator cell-based assays that are used to detect mycoplasma are highly sensitive but can take up to 28 days to complete and cannot be used for real-time decision making during the biomanufacturing process. To support real-time measurements of mycoplasma contamination, there is a push to explore nucleic acid testing. However, cell-based methods measure growth or colony forming units and nucleic acid testing measures genome copy number; this has led to ambiguity regarding how to compare the sensitivity of the methods. In addition, the high risk of conducting experiments wherein one deliberately spikes mycoplasma into bioreactors has dissuaded commercial groups from performing studies to explore the multiple variables associated with the upstream effects of a mycoplasma contamination in a manufacturing setting. Here we studied the ability of Mycoplasma arginini to persist in a single-use, perfusion rocking bioreactor system containing a Chinese hamster ovary (CHO) DG44 cell line expressing a model monoclonal immunoglobulin G1 (IgG1) antibody. We examined M. arginini growth and detection by culture methods, as well as the effects of M. arginini on mammalian cell health, metabolism, and productivity. We compared process parameters and controls normally measured in bioreactors including dissolved oxygen, gas mix, and base addition to maintain pH, to examine parameter changes as potential indicators of contamination. Our work showed that M. arginini affects CHO cell growth profile, viability, nutrient consumption, oxygen use, and waste production at varying timepoints after M. arginini introduction to the culture. Importantly, how the M. arginini contamination impacts the CHO cells is influenced by the concentration of CHO cells and rate of perfusion at the time of M. arginini spike. Careful evaluation of dissolved oxygen, pH control parameters, ammonia, and arginine over time may be used to indicate Mycoplasma contamination events in biomanufacturing facilities can result in loss of production and costly cleanups. Mycoplasma may survive in mammalian cell cultures with only subtle changes to the culture and may penetrate the 0.2 µm filters often used in the primary clarification of harvested cell culture fluid. Culture cell-based and indicator cell-based assays that are used to detect mycoplasma are highly sensitive but can take up to 28 days to complete and cannot be used for real-time decision making during the biomanufacturing process. To support real-time measurements of mycoplasma contamination, there is a push to explore nucleic acid testing. However, cell-based methods measure growth or colony forming units and nucleic acid testing measures genome copy number; this has led to ambiguity regarding how to compare the sensitivity of the methods. In addition, the high risk of conducting experiments wherein one deliberately spikes mycoplasma into bioreactors has dissuaded commercial groups from performing studies to explore the multiple variables associated with the upstream effects of a mycoplasma contamination in a manufacturing setting. Here we studied the ability of Mycoplasma arginini to persist in a single-use, perfusion rocking bioreactor system containing a Chinese hamster ovary (CHO) DG44 cell line expressing a model monoclonal immunoglobulin G1 (IgG1) antibody. We examined M. arginini growth and detection by culture methods, as well as the effects of M. arginini on mammalian cell health, metabolism, and productivity. We compared process parameters and controls normally measured in bioreactors including dissolved oxygen, gas mix, and base addition to maintain pH, to examine parameter changes as potential indicators of contamination. Our work showed that M. arginini affects CHO cell growth profile, viability, nutrient consumption, oxygen use, and waste production at varying timepoints after M. arginini introduction to the culture. Importantly, how the M. arginini contamination impacts the CHO cells is influenced by the concentration of CHO cells and rate of perfusion at the time of M. arginini spike. Careful evaluation of dissolved oxygen, pH control parameters, ammonia, and arginine over time may be used to indicate Mycoplasma contamination events in biomanufacturing facilities can result in loss of production and costly cleanups. Mycoplasma may survive in mammalian cell cultures with only subtle changes to the culture and may penetrate the 0.2 µm filters often used in the primary clarification of harvested cell culture fluid. Culture cell-based and indicator cell-based assays that are used to detect mycoplasma are highly sensitive but can take up to 28 days to complete and cannot be used for real-time decision making during the biomanufacturing process. To support real-time measurements of mycoplasma contamination, there is a push to explore nucleic acid testing. However, cell-based methods measure growth or colony forming units and nucleic acid testing measures genome copy number; this has led to ambiguity regarding how to compare the sensitivity of the methods. In addition, the high risk of conducting experiments wherein one deliberately spikes mycoplasma into bioreactors has dissuaded commercial groups from performing studies to explore the multiple variables associated with the upstream effects of a mycoplasma contamination in a manufacturing setting. Here we studied the ability of Mycoplasma arginini to persist in a single-use, perfusion rocking bioreactor system containing a Chinese hamster ovary (CHO) DG44 cell line expressing a model monoclonal immunoglobulin G1 (IgG1) antibody. We examined M. arginini growth and detection by culture methods, as well as the effects of M. arginini on mammalian cell health, metabolism, and productivity. We compared process parameters and controls normally measured in bioreactors including dissolved oxygen, gas mix, and base addition to maintain pH, to examine parameter changes as potential indicators of contamination. Our work showed that M. arginini affects CHO cell growth profile, viability, nutrient consumption, oxygen use, and waste production at varying timepoints after M. arginini introduction to the culture. Importantly, how the M. arginini contamination impacts the CHO cells is influenced by the concentration of CHO cells and rate of perfusion at the time of M. arginini spike. Careful evaluation of dissolved oxygen, pH control parameters, ammonia, and arginine over time may be used to indicate mycoplasma contamination in CHO cell cultures in a bioreactor before a read-out from a traditional method.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1990

A nonlinear optimization approach for disturbance rejection in flexible space structures

In this paper the design of an active control law for the rejection of persistent disturbances in large space structures is presented. The control system design approach is based on a deterministic model of the disturbances, with a model-based-compensator (MBC) structure, optimizing the magnitude of the disturbance that the structure can tolerate without violating certain predetermined constraints. In addition to closed-loop stability, the explicit treatment of state, control and control rate constraints, such as structural displacement, control actuator effort, and compensator time guarantees that the final design will exhibit desired performance characteristics. The technique is applied for the vibration damping of a simple two bay truss structure which is subjected to persistent disturbances, such as shuttle docking. Preliminary results indicate that the proposed control system can reject considerable persistent disturbances by utilizing most of the available control, while limiting the structural displacements to within desired tolerances. Further work, however, for incorporating additional design criteria, such as compensator robustness to be traded-off against performance specifications, is warranted.

Parlos, Alexander G.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Surface Melting Over the Greenland Ice Sheet Derived From Enhanced Resolution Passive Microwave Brightness Temperatures (1979–2019)

Surface melting is a major component of the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance, and it affects sea level rise through direct runoff and the modulation of ice dynamics and hydrological processes, supraglacially, englacially and subglacially. Passive microwave (PMW) brightness temperature observations are of paramount importance in studying the spatial and temporal evolution of surface melting due to their long temporal coverage (1979–present) and high temporal resolution (daily). However, a major limitation of PMW datasets has been the relatively coarse spatial resolution, which has historically been of the order of tens of kilometers. Here, we use a newly released PMW dataset (37 GHz, horizontal polarization) made available through a NASA “Making Earth System Data Records for Use in Research Environments” (MeASUREs) program to study the spatiotemporal evolution of surface melting over the Greenland ice sheet at an enhanced spatial resolution of 3.125 km. We assess the outputs of different detection algorithms using data collected by automatic weather stations (AWSs) and the outputs of the Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) regional climate model. We found that sporadic melting is well captured using a dynamic algorithm based on the outputs of the Microwave Emission Model of Layered Snowpack (MEMLS), whereas a fixed threshold of 245 K is capable of detecting persistent melt. Our results indicate that, during the reference period from 1979 to 2019 (from 1988 to 2019), surface melting over the ice sheet increased in terms of both duration, up to 4.5 (2.9) d per decade, and extension, up to 6.9 % (3.6 %) of the entire ice sheet surface extent per decade, according to the MEMLS algorithm. Furthermore, the melting season started up to 4.0 (2.5) d earlier and ended 7.0 (3.9) d later per decade. We also explored the information content of the enhanced-resolution dataset with respect to the one at 25 km and MAR outputs using a semi-variogram approach. We found that the enhanced product is more sensitive to local-scale processes, thereby confirming the potential of this new enhanced product for monitoring surface melting over Greenland at a higher spatial resolution than the historical products and for monitoring its impact on sea level rise. This offers the opportunity to improve our understanding of the processes driving melting, to validate modeled melt extent at high resolution and, potentially, to assimilate these data in climate models.

Surface melting↗
DOE OSTI2014

Calculating the spontaneous magnetization and defining the Curie temperature using a positive-feedback model

A positive-feedback mean-field modification of the classical Brillouin magnetization theory provides an explanation of the apparent persistence of the spontaneous magnetization beyond the conventional Curie temperature—the little understood “tail” phenomenon that occurs in many ferromagnetic materials. The classical theory is unable to resolve this apparent anomaly. The modified theory incorporates the temperature-dependent quantum-scale hysteretic and mesoscopic domain-scale anhysteretic magnetization processes and includes the effects of demagnetizing and exchange fields. It is found that the thermal behavior of the reversible and irreversible segments of the hysteresis loops, as predicted by the theory, is a key to the presence or absence of the “tails.” The theory, which permits arbitrary values of the quantum spin number J, generally provides a quantitative agreement with the thermal variations of both the spontaneous magnetization and the shape of the hysteresis loop.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2023

Polarimetric Geometric Modeling for mm-VLBI Observations of Black Holes

The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) is a millimeter very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) array that has imaged the apparent shadows of the supermassive black holes M87* and Sagittarius A*. Polarimetric data from these observations contain a wealth of information on the black hole and accretion flow properties. In this work, we develop polarimetric geometric modeling methods for mm-VLBI data, focusing on approaches that fit data products with differing degrees of invariance to broad classes of calibration errors. We establish a fitting procedure using a polarimetric “m-ring” model to approximate the image structure near a black hole. By fitting this model to synthetic EHT data from general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic models, we show that the linear and circular polarization structure can be successfully approximated with relatively few model parameters. We then fit this model to EHT observations of M87* taken in 2017. In total intensity and linear polarization, the m-ring fits are consistent with previous results from imaging methods. In circular polarization, the m-ring fits indicate the presence of event-horizon-scale circular polarization structure, with a persistent dipolar asymmetry and orientation across several days. The same structure was recovered independently of observing band, used data products, and model assumptions. Despite this broad agreement, imaging methods do not produce similarly consistent results. Our circular polarization results, which imposed additional assumptions on the source structure, should thus be interpreted with some caution. Polarimetric geometric modeling provides a useful and powerful method to constrain the properties of horizon-scale polarized emission, particularly for sparse arrays like the EHT.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2010

Modeling the Frozen-In Anticyclone in the 2005 Arctic Summer Stratosphere

Immediately following the breakup of the 2005 Arctic spring stratospheric vortex, a tropical air mass, characterized by low potential vorticity (PV) and high nitrous oxide (N2O), was advected poleward and became trapped in the easterly summer polar vortex. This feature, known as a "Frozen-In Anticyclone (FrIAC)", was observed in Earth Observing System (EOS) Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) data to span the potential temperature range from approximately 580 to 1100 K (approximately 25 to 40 km altitude) and to persist from late March to late August 2005. This study compares MLS N2O observations with simulations from the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) chemistry and transport model, the GEOS-5/MERRA Replay model, and the VanLeer Icosahedral Triangular Advection isentropic transport model to elucidate the processes involved in the lifecycle of the FrIAC which is here divided into three distinct phases. During the "spin-up phase" (March to early April), strong poleward flow resulted in a tight isolated anticyclonic vortex at approximately 70-90 deg N, marked with elevated N2O. GMI, Replay, and VITA all reliably simulted the spin-up of the FrIAC, although the GMI and Replay peak N2O values were too low. The FrIAC became trapped in the developing summer easterly flow and circulated around the polar region during the "anticyclonic phase" (early April to the end of May). During this phase, the FrIAC crossed directly over the pole between the 7th and 14th of April. The VITA and Replay simulations transported the N2O anomaly intact during this crossing, in agreement with MLS, but unrealistic dispersion of the anomaly occurred in the GMI simulation due to excessive numerical mixing of the polar cap. The vortex associated with the FrIAC was apparently resistant to the weak vertical hear during the anticyclonic phase, and it thereby protected the embedded N20 anomaly from stretching. The vortex decayed in late May due to diabatic processes, leaving the N2O anomaly exposed to horizontal and vertical wind shears during the "shearing phase" (June to August). The observed lifetime of the FrIAC during this phase is consistent with time-scales calculated from the ambient horizontal and vertical wind shear. Replay maintained the horizontal structure of the N2O anomaly similar to NILS well into August. The VITA simulation also captured the horizontal structure of the FrIAC during this phase, but VITA eventually developed fine-scale N2O structure not observed in MLS data.

Allen, D. R.↗
DOE OSTI2012

Inhomogeneous dephasing masks coherence lifetimes in ensemble measurements

An open question at the forefront of modern physical sciences is what role, if any, quantum effects may play in biological sensing and energy transport mechanisms. One area of such research concerns the possibility of coherent energy transport in photosynthetic systems. Spectroscopic evidence of long-lived quantum coherence in photosynthetic light-harvesting pigment protein complexes (PPCs), along with theoretical modeling of PPCs, has indicated that coherent energy transport might boost efficiency of energy transport in photosynthesis. Accurate assessment of coherence lifetimes is crucial for modeling the extent to which quantum effects participate in this energy transfer, because such quantum effects can only contribute to mechanisms proceeding on timescales over which the coherences persist. While spectroscopy is a useful way to measure coherence lifetimes, inhomogeneity in the transition energies across the measured ensemble may lead to underestimation of coherence lifetimes from spectroscopic experiments. Theoretical models of antenna complexes generally model a single system, and direct comparison of single system models to ensemble averaged experimental data may lead to systematic underestimation of coherence lifetimes, distorting much of the current discussion. In this study, we use simulations of the Fenna-Matthews-Olson complex to model single complexes as well as averaged ensembles to demonstrate and roughly quantify the effect of averaging over an inhomogeneous ensemble on measured coherence lifetimes. We choose to model the Fenna-Matthews-Olson complex because that system has been a focus for much of the recent discussion of quantum effects in biology, and use an early version of the well known environment-assisted quantum transport model to facilitate straightforward comparison between the current model and past work. Although ensemble inhomogeneity is known to lead to shorter lifetimes of observed oscillations (simply inhomogeneous spectral broadening in the time domain), this important fact has been left out of recent discussions of spectroscopic measurements of energy transport in photosynthesis. In general, these discussions have compared single-system theoretical models to whole-ensemble laboratory measurements without addressing the effect of inhomogeneous dephasing. Our work addresses this distinction between single system and ensemble averaged observations, and shows that the ensemble averaging inherent in many experiments leads to an underestimation of coherence lifetimes in individual systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2014

Spatial Heterogeneity in Human Activities Favors the Persistence of Wolves in Agroecosystems

As human populations expand, there is increasing demand and pressure for land. Under this scenario, behavioural flexibility and adaptation become important processes leading to the persistence of large carnivores in human-dominated landscapes such as agroecosystems. A growing interest has recently emerged on the outcome of the coexistence between wolves and humans in these systems. It has been suggested that spatial heterogeneity in human activities would be a major environmental factor modulating vulnerability and persistence of this contentious species in agroecosystems. Here, we combined information from 35 den sites detected between 2011 and 2012 in agroecosystems of western Iran (Hamedan province), a set of environmental variables measured at landscape and fine spatial scales, and generalized linear models to identify patterns of den site selection by wolves in a highly-modified agroecosystem. On a landscape level, wolves selected a mixture of rangelands with scattered dry-farms on hillsides (showing a low human use) to locate their dens, avoiding areas with high densities of settlements and primary roads. On a fine spatial scale, wolves primarily excavated dens into the sides of elevated steep-slope hills with availability of water bodies in the vicinity of den sites, and wolves were relegated to dig in places with coarse-soil particles. Our results suggest that vulnerability of wolves in human-dominated landscapes could be compensated by the existence of spatial heterogeneity in human activities. Such heterogeneity would favor wolf persistence in agroecosystems favoring a land sharing model of coexistence between wolves and people.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A deep generative model for deciphering cellular dynamics and in silico drug discovery in complex diseases

Human diseases are characterized by intricate cellular dynamics. Single-cell transcriptomics provides critical insights, yet a persistent gap remains in computational tools for detailed disease progression analysis and targeted in silico drug interventions. Here we introduce UNAGI, a deep generative neural network tailored to analyse time-series single-cell transcriptomic data. This tool captures the complex cellular dynamics underlying disease progression, enhancing drug perturbation modelling and screening. When applied to a dataset from patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, UNAGI learns disease-informed cell embeddings that sharpen our understanding of disease progression, leading to the identification of potential therapeutic drug candidates. Validation using proteomics reveals the accuracy of UNAGI’s cellular dynamics analysis, and the use of the fibrotic cocktail-treated human precision-cut lung slices confirms UNAGI’s predictions that nifedipine, an antihypertensive drug, may have anti-fibrotic effects on human tissues. UNAGI’s versatility extends to other diseases, including COVID, demonstrating adaptability and confirming its broader applicability in decoding complex cellular dynamics beyond idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, amplifying its use in the quest for therapeutic solutions across diverse pathological landscapes.

Neural Network↗
DOE OSTI2019

Coupled flow accumulation and atmospheric blocking govern flood duration

Abstract We present a physically based Bayesian network model for inference and prediction of flood duration that allows for a deeper understanding of the nexus of antecedent flow regime, atmospheric blocking, and moisture transport/release mechanisms. Distinct scaling factors at the land surface and regional atmospheric levels are unraveled using this Bayesian network model. Land surface scaling explains the variability in flood duration as a function of cumulative exceedance index, a new measure that represents the evolution of the flood in the basin. Dynamic atmospheric scaling explains the cumulative exceedance index using the interaction between atmospheric blocking system and the synergistic model of wind divergence and atmospheric water vapor. Our findings underline that the synergy between a large persistent low-pressure blocking system and a higher rate of divergent wind often triggers a long-duration flood, even in the presence of moderate moisture supply in the atmosphere. This condition in turn causes an extremely long-duration flood if the basin-wide cumulative flow prior to the flood event was already high. Thus, this new land-atmospheric interaction framework integrates regional flood duration scaling and dynamic atmospheric scaling to enable the coupling of ‘horizontal’ (for example, streamflow accumulation inside the basin) and ‘vertical’ flow of information (for example, interrelated land and ocean-atmosphere interactions), providing an improved understanding of the critical forcing of regional hydroclimatic systems. This Bayesian model approach is applied to the Missouri River Basin, which has the largest system of reservoirs in the United States. Our predictive model can aid in decision support systems for the protection of national infrastructure against long-duration flood events.

Najibi, Nasser (ORCID:0000000205157192)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Assessing shellfish water exposure to fecal bacteria pollution in Salish Sea: three-dimensional modeling and implications for monitoring

Fecal bacteria (FB) contamination poses significant risks to shellfish safety and management in coastal and estuarine waters. Despite extensive pollution identification and correction efforts, FB contamination in shellfish-growing areas persists in the Salish Sea, highlighting the need to identify overlooked sources and better understand FB transport from riverine and shoreline inputs to shellfish beds. To address this, a high-resolution three-dimensional hydrodynamic model coupled with FB kinetics was developed and applied to a case study site in Salish Sea—Portage Bay—to simulate freshwater plume circulation, flushing dynamics, and bacterial transport. Daily FB loading from the major freshwater inflow—Nooksack River was generated by both linear interpolation and integrating a machine learning approach (XGBoost), trained on historical hydrological and meteorological data. The model successfully reproduced both the magnitude and seasonal variation of FB concentrations in Portage Bay for the year of 2021, demonstrating that simplified FB kinetics with first-order decay due to mortality was effective in this dynamic coastal environment with short flushing time. Model results identified the Nooksack River as the dominant far-field FB source, while scenario simulations showed that near-field coastal stormwater outfalls elevated local FB levels following rainfall, particularly under low-flow conditions. The XGBoost prediction provided comparable or superior accuracy to linear interpolation, particularly during periods of missing observational data, by capturing short-term variability and event-driven loading more effectively. Integrating data-driven riverine FB inputs with mechanistic coastal numerical modeling provides a robust framework for operational forecasting of shellfish bed exposure risk and supports adaptive monitoring and management of shellfish growing areas in the Salish Sea and similar coastal systems.

Salish Sea↗
DOE OSTI2023

Symmetry-driven persistent spin texture for the two-dimensional nonsymmorphic CdTe and ZnTe crystal structures

In this paper, two nonsymmorphic two-dimensional structures of CdTe and ZnTe are modeled, and using state-of-the-art density functional theory with the group theory of solids, their symmetry-enforced electronic properties are studied. The in-plane ferroelectricity coupled with strong spin-orbit coupling induces a unidirectional out-of-plane Rashba spin-orbit field that can host a momentum-independent uniform spin configuration known as persistent spin texture (PST) at the Brillouin zone center. PST in these structures is found to be robust against external perturbations such as strain, structural distortion, and independent of layer thickness. These unprecedented intrinsic spin transport properties hold utmost importance in spintronics, as the experimental stringent condition of equal Rashba and Dresselhaus constants [Phys. Rev. Lett. 90, 146801 (2003)] is eliminated. The calculated persistent spin helix wavelength of <~5 nm paves the way for developing next-generation nanosized nonballistic spin field-effect transistors compared with micrometer-sized GaAs/AlGaAs quantum wells. Further, these materials exhibit finite spin Hall conductivity at the band edges and hence can be used in ferromagnet-free spin Hall transistors. Although CdTe and ZnTe systems have been widely studied for photocatalysis and solar cell applications over the past few decades, their potential application in spintronic devices has not been explored. Mono/few layers of CdTe and ZnTe synthesized from (110) facets of bulk zinc-blende crystals [Nat. Commun. 3, 1057 (2012)] satisfy all symmetry operations of the nonsymmorphic space group and hence can be considered ideal materials to verify our theoretical results experimentally.

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