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At least 847 records · Page 47

Cepheus OB2: Disk Evolution and Accretion at 3-10 Myr

We presented the results of MMT observations of young stars for our study of protoplanetary disks at ages 1-10 Myr in Tr 37 and NGC 7160. Using low-resolution optical spectra from the Hectospec multifiber spectrograph, we have tripled the number of known low-mass cluster members, identifying 130 new members in Tr 37 and 30 in NGC 7160. We used indicators of youth to identify and classify the low-mass cluster members. With the extended samples, we estimated the disk fraction in the clusters, finding that 40% of the low-mass stars in Tr 37 are actively accreting, whereas only 1 of the 55 low-mass stars in NGC 7160 shows indications of accretion. Optical photometry and theoretical isochrones are used to refine the ages of the clusters, confirming the estimates of 4 Myr for Tr 37 and 10 Myr for NGC 7160.

Sicilia-Aguilar, A.↗

Drug-Eluting Balloon Angioplasty for Juxta-Anastomotic Stenoses in Distal Radiocephalic Hemodialysis Fistulas: Long-Term Patency Results

Purpose: To evaluate long-term primary and secondary patency results of drug-eluting balloon angioplasty for the treatment of juxta-anastomotic stenoses in distal radiocephalic arteriovenous fistulas. Materials and Methods: Thirty-eight patients with juxta-anastomotic stenotic distal radiocephalic arteriovenous fistulas who underwent endovascular treatment with drug-eluting balloons between January 2014 and August 2016 in our interventional radiology department were included in this retrospective study. Color Doppler examination for follow-up was performed 15 days, 6 months, 12 months, 18 months, 24 months, 36 months, and 48 months after the procedure. Kaplan–Meier analysis was used to estimate primary and secondary patency rates. Results: Totally, 42 angioplasty with drug-eluting balloons was performed in 38 patients (20 men and 18 women; mean age 66.42 ± 12.01). Technical and clinical success rate was 100% (42/42). The mean follow-up period was 27.71 months ± 12.98 (range, 1–54 months). The estimated primary patency rates at 6 months were 94.7% (95% CI, 80.9%–99.0%), at 12 months were 81.2% (95% CI, 64.6%–91.4%), at 24 months were 60.7% (95% CI, 43.6%–75.7%), and at 48 months were 53.1% (95% CI, 36.5%–69.1%). The estimated secondary patency rates at 6 months were 97.3% (95% CI, 84.5%–99.8%), at 12 months were 86.5% (95% CI, 70.7%–94.8%), at 24 months were 69.0% (95% CI, 51.8%–82.4%), and at 48 months were 61.7% (95% CI, 44.6%–76.5%). Conclusion: Drug-eluting balloon angioplasty is a useful, effective technique in dysfunctional radiocephalic fistulas due to juxta-anastomotic stenoses. We demonstrated remarkably high primary patency rates at 6, 12, 24, and 48 months.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Growth and survival rates of dispersing free embryos and settled larvae of pallid sturgeon ( Scaphirhynchus albus ) in the Missouri River, Montana and North Dakota

We released nearly 1.0 million 1-day post-hatch (dph) and 5-dph pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus) free embryos in the Missouri River on 1 July 2019 and sequentially captured survivors at multiple sites through a 240-km river reach to quantify daily growth and survival rates during the early life stages. Genetic analysis was used to assign captured fish to released family lots and known ages. Growth rate was similar (0.74–0.75 mm day –1 ) between the 1- and 5-dph age groups during the 3–4-day dispersal period when water temperature averaged 16.8 °C. Daily survival rate was 0.64 during 1–4 dph for the original 1-dph age group and 0.80 during 5–7 dph for the original 5-dph age group. Total survival during free embryo dispersal (hatch to 9 dph) was estimated as 0.0437. The transition from dispersing as free embryos to settling as benthic larvae was verified for fish originally released as 5 dph. Growth of settled larvae was quantified with a Gompertz model through 75 dph (9 September; 112 mm) when water temperature was 18.8–21.0 °C in the rearing areas. Settled larvae had an estimated daily survival rate of 0.96, and estimated total survival during 9–75 dph was 0.0714. This study provides the first empirical survival estimates for pallid sturgeon early life stages in natural settings and is one of few studies reporting similar information for other sturgeon species. Applications of this work extend to pallid sturgeon restoration programs where population models are being developed to predict recruitment potential and population responses to river management alternatives.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Genetic variation in metallothionein and metal-regulatory transcription factor 1 in relation to urinary cadmium, copper, and zinc

Background: Metallothionein (MT) proteins play critical roles in the physiological handling of both essential (Cu and Zn) and toxic (Cd) metals. MT expression is regulated by metal-regulatory transcription factor 1 (MTF1). Hence, genetic variation in the MT gene family and MTF1 might influence excretion of these metals. Methods: 321 women were recruited in Seattle, WA and Las Cruces, NM and provided demographic information, urine samples for measurement of metal concentrations by mass spectrometry and creatinine, and blood or saliva for extraction of DNA. Forty-one single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) within the MTF1 gene region and the region of chromosome 16 encoding the MT gene family were selected for genotyping in addition to an ancestry informative marker panel. Linear regression was used to estimate the association of SNPs with urinary Cd, Cu, and Zn, adjusted for age, urinary creatinine, smoking history, study site, and ancestry. Results: Minor alleles of rs28366003 and rs10636 near the MT2A gene were associated with lower urinary Cd, Cu, and Zn. Minor alleles of rs8044719 and rs1599823, near MT1A and MT1B, were associated with lower urinary Cd and Zn, respectively. Minor alleles of rs4653329 in MTF1 were associated with lower urinary Cd. Conclusions: These results suggest that genetic variation in the MT gene region and MTF1 influences urinary Cd, Cu, and Zn excretion. - Highlights: • Genetic variation in metallothionein (MT) genes was assessed in two diverse populations. • Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in MT genes were associated with mean urinary Cd, Cu and Zn. • Genetic variation may influence biomarkers of exposure, and associations of exposure with health.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Spectral energy distributions and masses of 304 M31 old star clusters

This paper presents CCD multicolor photometry for 304 old star clusters in the nearby spiral galaxy M31, from which the photometry of 55 star clusters is first obtained. The observations were carried out as a part of the Beijing–Arizona–Taiwan–Connecticut Multicolor Sky Survey from 1995 February to 2008 March, using 15 intermediate-band filters covering 3000–10000 Å. Detailed comparisons show that our photometry is in agreement with previous measurements. Based on the ages and metallicities from Caldwell et al. and the photometric measurements here, we estimated the clusters’ masses by comparing their multicolor photometry with stellar population synthesis models. The results show that the sample clusters have masses between ∼3×10{sup 4}M{sub ⊙} and ∼10{sup 7}M{sub ⊙} with a peak of ∼4×10{sup 5}M{sub ⊙}. The masses here are in good agreement with those in previous studies. Combined with the masses of young star clusters of M31 from Wang et al., we find that the peak mass of the old clusters is 10 times that of young clusters.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

From the Arctic to the tropics: multi-biome prediction of leaf mass per area using leaf reflectance

Leaf-mass-per-area (LMA) is a key plant trait, reflecting tradeoffs between leaf photosynthetic function, longevity, and structural investment. Capturing spatial and temporal variability in LMA has been a long-standing goal of ecological research and is an essential component for advancing Earth system models. Despite the substantial variation in LMA within and across Earth's biomes, an efficient, globally generalizable approach to predict LMA is still lacking. In this work, we explored the capacity to predict LMA from leaf spectra across much of the global LMA trait space, with values ranging from 17 g m -2 to 393 g m -2 . Our dataset contained leaves from a wide range of biomes from the high Arctic to the tropics, included broad- and needle-leaf species, and upper and lower canopy (i.e. sun and shade) growth environments. Here we demonstrate the capacity to rapidly estimate LMA using only spectral measurements across a wide range of species, leaf age, and canopy position, from diverse biomes. Our model captures LMA variability with high accuracy and low error (R 2 =0.89; RMSE=15.45 g m -2 ). Lastly, our finding highlights that the leaf economic spectrum is mirrored by the leaf optical spectrum paving the way for this technology to predict the diversity of LMA in ecosystems across global biomes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Development of an Advanced Finite Element Model and Parametric Study to Evaluate Cement Sheath Barrier

Cement failure is known as one of the major causes for loss of well control events. Cement design is considered as one of the top technological knowledge gaps in high-pressure high-temperature oil and gas exploration. The primary objective of this paper is to perform a parametric analysis and identify critical parameters affecting the mechanical integrity of the set cement sheath. To achieve the objective, three-dimensional finite element models consisting of concentric casings and annular cement sheath were created. The finite element model was validated by analytical calculations. Performance of cement sheath was assessed by analyzing radial, hoop, and maximum shear stresses at different loading conditions. A parametric study was conducted by individually varying influencing factors such as cement material properties, sheath dimensions, and wellbore pressure loads. Values of all parameters were normalized and represented on the same plot against mechanical stresses. Such response curves can be used to estimate whether cement will structurally fail because of various operational loads or material aging. The plot can also be utilized to rank various factors in terms of influence on cement’s performance. Sensitivity response reveals that wellbore pressure, cement material properties, and annulus pressure are major parameters influencing mechanical stresses in neat class G cement. The order of importance depends on the type of stress. Results indicate interfacial bond failure and radial cracking to be the more likely modes of failure for class G cement. Cement response curves can help design engineers and regulators alike in quickly evaluating short-term or long-term fitness-for-service of cement sheath from the perspective of structural integrity. Industry standards and guidelines can be improved by adding performance curves for standard cement recipes.

Energy & Fuels↗

Stellar Rotation of T Tauri Stars in the Orion Star-forming Complex

We present a large-scale study of stellar rotation for T Tauri stars in the Orion star-forming complex. We use the projected rotational velocity ($v\sin (i)$) estimations reported by the APOGEE-2 collaboration as well as individual masses and ages derived from the position of the stars in the HR diagram, considering Gaia-EDR3 parallaxes and photometry plus diverse evolutionary models. We find an empirical trend for $v\sin (i)$ decreasing with age for low-mass stars (0.4M ⊙ < M $\star$ < 1.2M ⊙ ). Our results support the existence of a mechanism linking $v\sin (i)$ to the presence of accreting protoplanetary disks, responsible for regulating stellar rotation on timescales of about 6 Myr, which is the timescale in which most of the T Tauri stars lose their inner disk. Our results provide important constraints to models of rotation in the early phases of evolution of young stars and their disks.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Early history of the moon: Implications of U-Th-Pb and Rb-Sr systematics

Anorthosite 60015 contains the lowest initial Sr-87/Sr-86 ratio (0.69884 + or - 0.00004) yet reported for a lunar sample. The initial ratio is equal to that of the achondrite Angra dos Reis and slightly higher than the lowest measured Sr-87/Sr-86 ratio for an inclusion in the C3 carbonaceous chondrite Allende. The Pb-Pb ages of both Angra dos Reis and Allende are 4.62 x 10 to the 9th power years (4.62 billion years). Thus, the initial Sr-87/Sr-86 ratio found in lunar anorthosite 60015 strongly supports the hypothesis that the age of the moon is about 4.65 b.y. The U-238/Pb-204 value estimated for the source of the excess lead in orange soil 74220 is lower than the values estimated for the sources of KREEP (600-1000), high K (300-600) and low K (100-300) basalts.

Tatsumoto, M.↗

Morphologic classification of Martian craters and some implications

The establishment of the absolute age range for the unmodified crater class is considered in an attempt to estimate the change of crater degradation rates as a function of time. It is assumed that both the Moon and Mars have had similar time rate of changes in impacting rates. This means that both were subjected to intense bombardment in early history. The rate rapidly declined to low rates around 3.5 b.y. ago.

Arvidson, R. E.↗

Early history of the moon: Implications of U-Th-Pb and Rb-Sr systematics

Anorthosite 60015 contains the lowest initial Sr-87/Sr-86 ratio yet reported for a lunar sample. The initial ratio is equal to that of the achondrite Angra dos Reis and slightly higher than the lowest measured Sr-87/Sr-86 ratio for an inclusion in the C3 carbonaceous chondrite Allende. The Pb-Pb ages of both Angra does Reis and Allende are 4.62 X 10 to the ninth power yr. Thus, the initial Sr/87/Sr-86 ratio found in lunar anorthosite 60015 strongly supports the hypothesis that the age of the Moon is about 4.65 b.y. The U-238/Pb-204 value estimated for the source of the excess lead in "orange soil" 74220 is approximately 35 and lower than the values estimated for the sources of KREEP (600-1000), high-K (300-600), and low-K (100-300) basalts. From these and other physical, chemical and petrographic results it was hypothesized that (1) the moon formed approximately 4.65 b.y. ago; (2) a global-scale gravitational differentiation occurred at the beginning of lunar history; and (3) the differentiation resulted in a radical chemical and mineralogical zoning in which the U-238/Pb-204 ratios increased toward the surface, with the exception of the low U-238/Pb-204 surficial anorthositic layer which "floated" at the beginning of the differentiation relative to the denser pyroxene-rich material.

Tatsumoto, M.↗

Sulfur in vacuum - Sublimation effects on frozen melts, and applications to Io's surface and torus

Vacuum sublimation effects on solid sulfur yield a form of the element that is white at room temperature, is fluffy in texture, and forms on frozen sulfur in vacuum through differential evaporation of molecular species in the solid. This vacuum sulfur should exist in large quantity on Io, if the solid free sulfur there has solidified from a melt; a sulfur volcanism model for Io is accordingly developed on this basis which implies that the color and spectra of different sulfur regions of Io could indicate their relative crystallization ages and cooling histories. The flux of sublimating hotspot sulfur appears consistent with estimated turnover rates of the Io surface.

Nash, Douglas B.↗

Cosmic-ray lifetime in the Galaxy - Experimental results and models

The separation of the cosmic-ray Be isotopes achieved by two satellite experiments is discussed. From the measured isotopic ratio between the radioactive Be-10 (half-life = 1,500,000 years) and the stable Be-9, it is deduced that the cosmic rays propagate through matter with an average density of 0.24 = or - 0.07 atoms/ cu cm. The implications of this result for the cosmic-ray age is reviewed in the context of two models of confinement and propagation: the homogeneous model, normally identified with confinement ot the galactic gaseous disk, and a diffusion model in which the cosmic rays extend into a galactic halo. A newly deduced cosmic-ray pathlength distribution, a self-consistent model of solar modulation, and a set of fragmentation cross sections are calculated. It is concluded that in a homogeneous model, the cosmic-ray age is 15 (+7, -4) million years, about a factor longer than early estimates based on the abundances of the light nuclei Li, Be, and B and a nominal interstellar density of 1 atom/ cu cm.

Simpson, J. A.↗

The horizontal-branch stars in globular clusters. 2: The second parameter phenomenon

Using synthetic horizontal-branch models, we have investigated the origin of the systematic variation in horizontal-branch (HB) morphology with galactocentric distance (R(sub G)) among globular clusters. The variations in He abundance, CNO abundance, and core mass required separately to explain this effect are inconsistent with either the observed properties of the RR Lyrae variables or the observed main-sequence turnoffs in the clusters. There is also no clear evidence that the trend with R(sub G) is related to the central concentrations, central densities, or absolute magnitudes of the clusters. The variations in cluster age required to explain this effect are not in conflict with any observations. A detailed comparison of our synthetic HB calculations with pairs of clusters of very different HB morphology but similar (Fe/H) reveals reasonably good agreement between the age differences inferred from HB morphology and the main-sequence turnoff. The major source of uncertainty is the need for ad hoc hypotheses in the modeling of the HB morphologies of a few peculiar clusters (e.g., NGC 6752). Nonetheless, there is firm evidence for age variations of several gigayears (as much as approximately 5 Gyr) among the halo globular clusters. Our results support the hypothesis of Searle & Zinn that the inner halo is more uniform in age and is older in the mean than the outer halo, and we estimate this difference to be approximately 2 Gyr.

Lee, Young-Wook↗

Watching Without Seeing a Tool to Surveil Astronaut Health Outcomes While Maintaining Astronaut Medical Privacy

BACKGROUND The Privacy Act of 1974 regulates the use a nd disclosure of personally identifiable information by US Federal agencies. The Act applies to biographical, financial, a nd other identity-linked information, a s well a s personal health information (PHI). As such, the use of astronaut PHI is limited to authorized personnel for preapproved uses, with data reporting often limited to aggregated information about groups. These limitations on the use a nd reporting of astronaut PHI complicates surveillance efforts, wherein epidemiologists a t the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)monitor the incidence of targeted health conditions in the astronaut population, or to discover emerging trends of aging and disease. Stratification on one or more covariates –particularly time-period, sex, a nd mission participation –can lead to extremely small datasets such that the reporting of results is potentially attributable to individuals. An additional challenge is the small size of the astronaut population, both in terms of numbers of individuals a s well a s in terms of density of exposure time. Such small datasets yield volatile rate estimates that are difficult to interpret. To a id the epidemiological surveillance efforts, a surveillance tool is required that can (a) satisfy the need for rapid computation of condition-specific incidence and mortality rates; (b) improve the statistical estimates of these estimated rates; and (c) maintain astronaut privacy. Here we describe a nd demonstrate such a tool. METHODS We devised a system that models incidence a nd mortality rates rather than calculating them directly. This ha s the advantage of using all the available data to derive the estimates, lea ding to rates that a re not attributable to any one individual, a nd a re a s numerically stable a s they can be given the extremely limited data. The system models disease endpoints using a Poisson regression model with exposure density (measured in person-years) a s a n offset term. By doing so the model is estimating event counts per person-year, equivalent to modeling the rates directly. It uses a standard (pre-specified)set of covariates; the system does not engage in “model-building” as model parsimony is not the goa l. Instead, it is explicitly recognized that if a covariate is not statistically significant a nd not a confounder then it will likely have very little effect on the estimate of the incidence a nd mortality rates. Users are able to specify the disease endpoint of interest and the covariates over which they would like to stratify. The system then uses the resulting model to compute the estimated rates for the user-chosen configuration of variables as visualizes those either over an age range within a specified time-period, or over time for astronauts with a specified age range. RESULTS The first iteration of the tool computes incidence a nd mortality rates for cardiovascular conditions and cancers. Code ha s been developed to retrieve the appropriate data from the IMPALA analysis platform, compute the models for incidence a nd mortality, a nd then use those models to generate the corresponding rate curves. A companion graphical user interface allows the user to specify the curves and visualize the results. CONCLUSIONS It is important to note that the rapid surveillance tool described here is neither meant to be a definitive assessment of the incidence or mortality of any particular disease or condition in the astronaut population, nor is it meant to be used for research purposes. Rather, it is meant as an early indicator that in-depth investigation may be warranted. By automating a repetitive process and leveraging carefully curated astronaut health outcomes, the tool makes possible a rapid “first look” into known areas of concern, and, if used judiciously, may surface new areas of concern for long-term astronaut health. This work is supported in part by the Translational Research Institute for Space Health (TRISH) through NASA Cooperative Agreement NNX16AO69A.

R J Reynolds↗

BrO and Inferred Bry Profiles over the Western Pacific: Relevance of Inorganic Bromine Sources and a Bry Minimum in the Aged Tropical Tropopause Layer

We report measurements of bromine monoxide (BrO) and use an observationally constrained chemical box model to infer total gas-phase inorganic bromine (Br(sub y)) over the tropical western Pacific Ocean (tWPO) during the CONTRAST field campaign (January-February 2014). The observed BrO and inferred Bry profiles peak in the marine boundary layer (MBL), suggesting the need for a bromine source from sea-salt aerosol (SSA), in addition to organic bromine (CBry ). Both profiles are found to be C-shaped with local maxima in the upper free troposphere (FT). The median tropospheric BrO vertical column density (VCD) was measured as 1.6 x 10(exp 13) molec cm(exp -2), compared to model predictions of 0.9 x 10(exp 13) molec cm(exp -2) in GEOS-Chem (CBr(sub y) but no SSA source), 0.4 x 10(exp 13) molec cm(exp -2) in CAM-Chem (CBr(sub y) and SSA), and 2.1 x 10(exp 13) molec cm(exp -2) in GEOS-Chem (CBry and SSA). Neither global model fully captures the Cshape of the Br(sun y) profile. A local Br(sub y) maximum of 3.6 ppt (2.9-4.4 ppt; 95% confidence interval, CI) is inferred between 9.5 and 13.5 km in air masses influenced by recent convective outflow. Unlike BrO, which increases from the convective tropical tropopause layer (TTL) to the aged TTL, gas-phase Br(sub y) decreases from the convective TTL to the aged TTL. Analysis of gas-phase Br(sub y) against multiple tracers (CFC-11, H2O/O3 ratio, and potential temperature) reveals a Br(sub y) minimum of 2.7 ppt (2.3-3.1 ppt; 95% CI) in the aged TTL, which agrees closely with a stratospheric injection of 2.6 +/- 0.6 ppt of inorganic Br(sub y) (estimated from CFC-11 correlations), and is remarkably insensitive to assumptions about heterogeneous chemistry. Bry increases to 6.3 ppt (5.6-7.0 ppt; 95% CI) in the stratospheric "middleworld" and 6.9 ppt (6.5-7.3 ppt; 95% CI) in the stratospheric "overworld". The local Br(sub y) minimum in the aged TTL is qualitatively (but not quantitatively) captured by CAM-Chem, and suggests a more complex partitioning of gas-phase and aerosol Br(sub y) species than previously recognized. Our data provide corroborating evidence that inorganic bromine sources (e.g., SSA-derived gas-phase Br(sub y) ) are needed to explain the gas-phase Br(sub y) budget in the upper free troposphere and TTL. They are also consistent with observations of significant bromide in Upper Troposphere-Lower Stratosphere aerosols. The total Br(sub y) budget in the TTL is currently not closed, because of the lack of concurrent quantitative measurements of gas-phase Br(sub y) species (i.e., BrO, HOBr, HBr, etc.) and aerosol bromide. Such simultaneous measurements are needed to (1) quantify SSA-derived Br(sub y) in the upper FT, (2) test Br(sub y) partitioning, and possibly explain the gas-phase Br(sub y) minimum in the aged TTL, (3) constrain heterogeneous reaction rates of bromine, and (4) account for all of the sources of Br(sub y) to the lower stratosphere.

Atmospheric Chemistry; bromine; troposphere; CONTR↗

Inverse modeling and uncertainty analysis of potential groundwater recharge to the confined semi-fossil Ohangwena II Aquifer, Namibia

The identification of potential recharge areas and estimation of recharge rates to the confined semi-fossil Ohangwena II Aquifer (KOH-2) is crucial for its future sustainable use. The KOH-2 is located within the endorheic transboundary Cuvelai-Etosha-Basin (CEB), shared by Angola and Namibia. The main objective was the development of a strategy to tackle the problem of data scarcity, which is a well-known problem in semi-arid regions. In a first step, conceptual geological cross sections were created to illustrate the possible geological setting of the system. Furthermore, groundwater travel times were estimated by simple hydraulic calculations. A two-dimensional numerical groundwater model was set up to analyze flow patterns and potential recharge zones. The model was optimized against local observations of hydraulic heads and groundwater age. The sensitivity of the model against different boundary conditions and internal structures was tested. Parameter uncertainty and recharge rates were estimated. Results indicate that groundwater recharge to the KOH-2 mainly occurs from the Angolan Highlands in the northeastern part of the CEB. The sensitivity of the groundwater model to different internal structures is relatively small in comparison to changing boundary conditions in the form of influent or effluent streams. Uncertainty analysis underlined previous results, indicating groundwater recharge originating from the Angolan Highlands. The estimated recharge rates are less than 1% of mean yearly precipitation, which are reasonable for semi-arid regions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DYNAMIC PRA WITH COMPONENT AGING AND DEGRADATION MODELED UTILIZING PLANT RISK MONITORING DATA

In the nuclear industry, risk monitors are intended to provide a point-in-time estimate of the system risk given the current plant configuration. Current risk monitors are limited in that they do not properly take into account the deteriorating states of plant systems, structures, and components (SSCs), which are unit-specific. Current approaches to computing risk monitors use probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) techniques, but the assessment is typically a snapshot in time. Living PRA models attempt to address limitations of traditional PRA models in a limited sense by including temporary changes in plant and system configurations. However, information on plant component health are not considered. This often leaves risk monitors using living PRA models incapable of conducting evaluations with dynamic degradation scenarios evolving over time. There is a need to develop enabling approaches to solidify risk monitors to provide time and condition-dependent risk by integrating traditional PRA models with condition monitoring and prognostic techniques [1]. This paper presents a novel hazard-rate based model of incorporating degradation of nuclear SSCs into an existing PRA model. Time-varying instantaneous hazard-rate of component is used to model degradation based on time-varying performance measure. The instantaneous hazard-rate is used to determine and update time-varying probability of failure of the components in their PRA models. The method is applied to estimate evolution of probability of failure of an in-service pump using vibration measurement taken while the pump undergoes degradation.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗