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At least 847 records · Page 47

Isopropanol dehydration reaction rate kinetics measurement using H 2 O time histories

H 2 O formation during thermal decomposition of isopropanol was measured behind reflected shock waves at temperatures ranging from 1127 to 1621 K at an average pressure of 1.42 atm using a laser absorption technique. Of the five modern chemical kinetics models used to compare the H 2 O time histories, the model from Li et al (Combust. Flame 2019;207:171-185) showed the best overall agreement. Sensitivity and rate of production analyses using the Li et al model (as well as those from AramcoMech 3.0, CRECK, and Togbe et al (Energy Fuel. 2011;25:676-683)) showed unimolecular dehydration of isopropanol, iC 3 H 7 OH ⇌ H 2 O + C 3 H 6 (R1), is nearly the sole reaction controlling H2O production at early times, allowing for an a priori measurement of the forward rate constant k 1 . The Arrhenius expression k1 (s –1 ) = 2.60 × 10 13 exp(-31 120 K/T) was determined to represent best the data from this study. According to the models and previous experimental investigations, the pressure investigated is well within the high-pressure limit (HPL) for this reaction. Additional, higher-pressure experiments also confirmed the HPL assumption. An uncertainty analysis was performed by varying secondary reactions within their uncertainties and examining their effect on the overall prediction, establishing an uncertainty within ±20% for all but the highest temperature cases, which have a maximum uncertainty of ±40%. Experiments conducted with a radical trapper, toluene, showed little influence from radical chemistry, suggesting this estimated uncertainty is fairly conservative. Experimental data from Heyne et al (Z Phys Chem. 2015;229:881-907) were found to be in good agreement with the rate measurements from this study and, therefore, a second Arrhenius expression, k 1 (s –1 ) = 2.11 × 10 13 exp(-30 820 K/T), was found to represent both datasets well. This second expression has a larger temperature range of 976-1621 K. Here the present study provides the first high-temperature data collected for this reaction, adding to the limited data available for isopropanol in the literature.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Assessing mechanisms for microbial taxa and community dynamics using process models

Disentangling the assembly mechanisms controlling community composition, structure, distribution, functions, and dynamics is a central issue in ecology. Although various approaches have been proposed to examine community assembly mechanisms, quantitative characterization is challenging, particularly in microbial ecology. Here, we present a novel approach for quantitatively delineating community assembly mechanisms by combining the consumer–resource model with a neutral model in stochastic differential equations. Using time-series data from anaerobic bioreactors that target microbial 16S rRNA genes, we tested the applicability of three ecological models: the consumer–resource model, the neutral model, and the combined model. Our results revealed that model performances varied substantially as a function of population abundance and/or process conditions. The combined model performed best for abundant taxa in the treatment bioreactors where process conditions were manipulated. In contrast, the neutral model showed the best performance for rare taxa. Our analysis further indicated that immigration rates decreased with taxa abundance and competitions between taxa were strongly correlated with phylogeny, but within a certain phylogenetic distance only. The determinism underlying taxa and community dynamics were quantitatively assessed, showing greater determinism in the treatment bioreactors that aligned with the subsequent abnormal system functioning. Given its mechanistic basis, the framework developed here is expected to be potentially applicable beyond microbial ecology.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

AAPM Truth‐based CT (TrueCT) reconstruction grand challenge

Background: This Special Report summarizes the 2022, AAPM grand challenge on Truth-based CT image reconstruction. Purpose: To provide an objective framework for evaluating CT reconstruction methods using virtual imaging resources consisting of a library of simulated CT projection images of a population of human models with various diseases. Methods: Two hundred unique anthropomorphic, computational models were created with varied diseases consisting of 67 emphysema, 67 lung lesions, and 66 liver lesions. The organs were modeled based on clinical CT images of real patients. The emphysematous regions were modeled using segmentations from patient CT cases in the COPDGene Phase I dataset. For the lung and liver lesion cases, 1–6 malignant lesions were created and inserted into the human models, with lesion diameters ranging from 5.6 to 21.9 mm for lung lesions and 3.9 to 14.9 mm for liver lesions. The contrast defined between the liver lesions and liver parenchyma was 82 ± 12 HU, ranging from 50 to 110 HU. Similarly, the contrast between the lung lesions and the lung parenchyma was defined as 781 ± 11 HU, ranging from 725 to 805 HU. For the emphysematous regions, the defined HU values were −950 ± 17 HU ranging from −918 to −979 HU. The developed human models were imaged with a validated CT simulator. The resulting CT sinograms were shared with the participants. The participants reconstructed CT images from the sinograms and sent back their reconstructed images. Further, the reconstructed images were then scored by comparing the results against the corresponding ground truth values. The scores included both task-generic (root mean square error [RMSE] and structural similarity matrix [SSIM]), and task-specific (detectability index [d’] and lesion volume accuracy) metrics. For the cases with multiple lesions, the measured metric was averaged across all the lesions. To combine the metrics with each other, each metric was normalized to a range of 0 to 1 per disease type, with “0” and “1” being the worst and best measured values across all cases of the disease type for all received reconstructions. Results: The True-CT challenge attracted 52 participants, out of which 5 successfully completed the challenge and submitted the requested 200 reconstructions. Across all participants and disease types, SSIM absolute values ranged from 0.22 to 0.90, RMSE from 77.6 to 490.5 HU, d’ from 0.1 to 64.6, and volume accuracy ranged from 1.2 to 753.1 mm3. The overall scores demonstrated that participant “A” had the best performance in all categories, except for the metrics of d’ for lung lesions and RMSE for liver lesions. Participant “A” had an average normalized score of 0.41 ± 0.22, 0.48 ± 0.32, and 0.42 ± 0.33 for the emphysema, lung lesion, and liver lesion cases, respectively. Conclusions: The True-CT challenge successfully enabled objective assessment of CT reconstructions with the unique advantage of access to a diverse population of diseased human models with known ground truth. This study highlights the significant potential of virtual imaging trials in objective assessment of medical imaging technologies.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Calibration and uncertainty quantification for Davis Equation of State models for the High Explosive PBX 9501 products

Abstract This paper investigates the uncertainty in the parameters used in the calibration of an Davis Equation Of State (EOS) for the detonation products of the High Explosive PBX 9501. The procedure sought to make use of all available information about this HE to inform the best set of calibration parameters as well as the uncertainty in these parameters. The procedure made use of historical experimental data, the results from thermo‐chemical modeling as well as data on the best isentrope function fit to cylinder test experimental data. Combining all these heterogeneous data sources together in a Bayesian calibration, yielded a posterior mean and covariance. Sampling from the posterior distribution and evaluating an important Quantity Of Interest (QOI) in the EOS model, the detonation speed of a one‐inch rate stick, produced a distribution which showed variations which were in agreement with experiments. The uncertainty in the EOS was reported as eleven sets of model calibrations which spanned the range of this QOI.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Quantifying sensitivity in numerical weather prediction-modeled offshore wind speeds through an ensemble modeling approach

A decade of research has shown that numerical weather prediction (NWP)-modeled wind speeds can be highly sensitive to the inputs and setups within the NWP model. For wind resource characterization applications, this sensitivity is often addressed by constructing a range of setups and selecting the one that best validates against observations. However, this approach is not possible in areas that lack high-quality hub height observations, especially offshore wind areas. In such cases, techniques to quantify and disseminate confidence in NWP-modeled wind speeds in the absence of observations are needed. We address this need in the present study and propose best practices for quantifying the spread in NWP-modeled wind speeds. We implement an ensemble approach in which we consider 24 different setups to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. We construct the ensemble by considering variations in WRF version, WRF namelist, atmospheric forcing, and sea surface temperature (SST) forcing. Our analysis finds that the standard deviation produces more consistent estimates compared to the interquartile range and tends to be the more conservative estimator for ensemble variability. We further find that model spread increases closer to the surface and on shorter time scales. In conclusion, we explore methods to attribute total ensemble variability to the different ensemble components (e.g., atmospheric forcing and SST product) and find that contributions by components also vary depending on time scale. We anticipate that the methods and results presented in this paper will provide a reasonable foundation for further research into ensemble-based wind resource data sets.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

An independent analysis of bias sources and variability in wind plant pre-construction energy yield estimation methods

The wind resource assessment community has long had the goal of reducing the bias between wind plant pre-construction energy yield assessment (EYA) and the observed annual energy production (AEP). This comparison is typically made between the 50% probability of exceedance (P50) value of the EYA and the long-term corrected operational AEP (hereafter OA P50), and is known as the P50 bias. The industry has critically lacked an independent analysis of bias reduction investigated across multiple consultants to identify the greatest sources of uncertainty and variance in the EYA process and the best opportunities for uncertainty reduction. The present study addresses this gap by benchmarking consultant methodologies against each other and against operational data at a scale not seen before in industry collaborations. We consider data from 10 wind plants and evaluate discrepancies between eight consultancies in the steps taken from estimates of gross to net energy. Consultants tend to overestimate the gross energy produced at the turbines and then compensate by further overestimating downstream losses, leading to a mean P50 bias near zero, still with significant variability among the individual wind plants. Within our data sample, we find that consultant estimates of all loss categories, except environmental losses, tend to reduce the project-to-project variability of the P50 bias. The disagreement between consultants, however, remains flat throughout the addition of losses. Finally, we find that differences in consultants’ estimates of project performance can lead to differences up to $10/MWh in the levelized cost of energy for a wind plant.

Todd, Austin C.↗

Ensembles of Networks Produced from Neural Architecture Search

Neural architecture search (NAS) is a popular topic at the intersection of deep learning and high performance computing. NAS focuses on optimizing the architecture of neural networks along with their hyperparameters in order to produce networks with superior performance. Much of the focus has been on how to produce a single best network to solve a machine learning problem, but as NAS methods produce many networks that work very well, this affords the opportunity to ensemble these networks to produce an improved result. Additionally, the diversity of network structures produced by NAS drives a natural bias towards diversity of predictions produced by the individual networks. This results in an improved ensemble over simply creating an ensemble that contains duplicates of the best network architecture retrained to have unique weights.

Herron, Emily↗

On the Feasibility of Simulation-Driven Portfolio Scheduling for Cyberinfrastructure Runtime Systems

Runtime systems that automate the execution of applications on distributed cyberinfrastructures need to make scheduling decisions. Researchers have proposed many scheduling algorithms, but most of them are designed based on analytical models and assumptions that may not hold in practice. The literature is thus rife with algorithms that have been evaluated only within the scope of their underlying assumptions but whose practical effectiveness is unclear. It is thus difficult for developers to decide which algorithm to implement in their runtime systems.To obviate the above difficulty, we propose an approach by which the runtime system executes, throughout application execution, simulations of this very execution. Each simulation is for a different algorithm in a scheduling algorithm portfolio, and the best algorithm is selected based on simulation results. The main objective of this work is to evaluate the feasibility and potential merit of this portfolio scheduling approach, even in the presence of simulation inaccuracy, when compared to the traditional one-algorithm approach. We perform this evaluation via a case study in the context of scientific workflows. Our main finding is that portfolio scheduling can outperform the best one-algorithm approach even in the presence of relatively large simulation inaccuracies.

Casanova, Henri↗

Jet timing

The measurement of the arrival time of a particle, such as a lepton, a photon, or a pion, reaching the detector provides valuable information. A similar measurement for a hadronic final state, however, is much more challenging as one has to extract the relevant information from a collection of particles. In this paper, we explore various possibilities in defining the time of a jet through the measurable arrival times of the jet constituents. We find that a definition of jet time based on a transverse momentum weighted sum of the times of the constituents has the best performance. For prompt jets, the performance depends on the jet trajectory. For delayed jets, the performance depends on the trajectory of the jet, the trajectory of the mother particle, and the location of the displaced vertex. Compared to the next-best-performing jet time definition, the transverse momentum weighted sum has roughly a factor of ten times better jet time resolution. We give a detailed discussion of the relevant effects and characterize the full geometrical dependence of the performance. These results highlight the critical importance of using a proper definition of jet time with its corresponding detector-dependent calibration and the exciting possibility of deepening our understanding of jets in the time domain.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Statistical significance of the sterile-neutrino hypothesis in the context of reactor and gallium data

We evaluate the statistical significance of the 3+1 sterile-neutrino hypothesis using $v_e$ and $\bar{v}_e$ disappearance data from reactor, solar and gallium radioactive source experiments. Concerning the latter, we investigate the implications of the recent BEST results. For reactor data we focus on relative measurements independent of flux predictions. For the problem at hand, the usual χ 2 -approximation to hypothesis testing based on Wilks’ theorem has been shown in the literature to be inaccurate. We therefore present results based on Monte Carlo simulations, and find that this typically reduces the significance by roughly 1σ with respect to the naïve expectation. We find no significant indication in favor of sterile-neutrino oscillations from reactor data. On the other hand, gallium data (dominated by the BEST result) show more than 5σ of evidence supporting the sterile-neutrino hypothesis, favoring oscillation parameters in agreement with constraints from reactor data. This explanation is, however, in significant tension (~3 σ) with solar neutrino experiments. In order to assess the robustness of the signal for gallium experiments we present a discussion of the impact of cross-section uncertainties on the results.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Challenges for unsupervised anomaly detection in particle physics

Anomaly detection relies on designing a score to determine whether a particular event is uncharacteristic of a given background distribution. One way to define a score is to use autoencoders, which rely on the ability to reconstruct certain types of data (background) but not others (signals). In this paper, we study some challenges associated with variational autoencoders, such as the dependence on hyperparameters and the metric used, in the context of anomalous signal (top and W) jets in a QCD background. We find that the hyperparameter choices strongly affect the network performance and that the optimal parameters for one signal are non-optimal for another. In exploring the networks, we uncover a connection between the latent space of a variational autoencoder trained using mean-squared-error and the optimal transport distances within the dataset. We then show that optimal transport distances to representative events in the background dataset can be used directly for anomaly detection, with performance comparable to the autoencoders. Whether using autoencoders or optimal transport distances for anomaly detection, we find that the choices that best represent the background are not necessarily best for signal identification. These challenges with unsupervised anomaly detection bolster the case for additional exploration of semi-supervised or alternative approaches.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Heavy neutral leptons at muon colliders

The future high-energy muon colliders, featuring both high energy and low background, could play a critical role in our searches for new physics. The smallness of neutrino mass is a puzzle of particle physics. Broad classes of solutions to the neutrino puzzles can be best tested by seeking the partners of SM light neutrinos, dubbed as heavy neutral leptons (HNLs), at muon colliders. We can parametrize HNLs in terms of the mass m N and the mixing angle with ℓ-flavor U ℓ . In this work, we focus on the regime m N > O(100) GeV and study the projected sensitivities on the |U ℓ | 2 – m N plane with the full-reconstructable HNL decay into a hadronic W and a charged lepton. The projected reach in |U ℓ | 2 leads to the best sensitivities in the TeV realm.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Search for long-lived particles decaying to a pair of muons in proton-proton collisions at $ \sqrt{s} $ = 13 TeV

An inclusive search for long-lived exotic particles decaying to a pair of muons is presented. The search uses data collected by the CMS experiment at the CERN LHC in proton-proton collisions at $ \sqrt{s} $ = 13 TeV in 2016 and 2018 and corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 97.6 fb$^{−1}$. The experimental signature is a pair of oppositely charged muons originating from a common secondary vertex spatially separated from the pp interaction point by distances ranging from several hundred μm to several meters. The results are interpreted in the frameworks of the hidden Abelian Higgs model, in which the Higgs boson decays to a pair of long-lived dark photons Z$_{D}$, and of a simplified model, in which long-lived particles are produced in decays of an exotic heavy neutral scalar boson. For the hidden Abelian Higgs model with m(Z$_{D}$) greater than 20 GeV and less than half the mass of the Higgs boson, they provide the best limits to date on the branching fraction of the Higgs boson to dark photons for cτ(Z$_{D}$) (varying with m(Z$_{D}$)) between 0.03 and ≈0.5 mm, and above ≈0.5 m. Our results also yield the best constraints on long-lived particles with masses larger than 10 GeV produced in decays of an exotic scalar boson heavier than the Higgs boson and decaying to a pair of muons.[graphic not available: see fulltext]

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Global QCD analysis and dark photons

We perform a global QCD analysis of high energy scattering data within the JAM Monte Carlo framework, including a coupling to a dark photon that augments the Standard Model (SM) electroweak coupling via kinetic mixing with the hypercharge B boson. We first set limits on the dark photon mass and mixing parameter assuming that the SM is the true theory of Nature, taking into account also the effect on g – 2 of the muon. If instead we entertain the possibility that the dark photon may play a role in deep-inelastic scattering (DIS), we find that the best fit is preferred over the SM at 6.5σ, even after accounting for missing higher order uncertainties. The improvement in χ 2 with the dark photon is stable against all the tests we have applied, with the improvements in the theoretical predictions spread across a wide range of x and Q 2 . The largest improvement corresponds to the fixed target and HERA DIS data, while the best fit yields a value of g – 2 which significantly reduces the disagreement with the latest experimental determination.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Search for solar axions produced through the axion-electron coupling gae using a new GridPix detector at CAST

We present a search for solar axions produced through the axion-electron coupling (g ae ) using data from a novel 7-GridPix detector installed at the CERN Axion Solar Telescope (CAST). The detector, featuring ultra-thin silicon nitride windows and multiple veto systems, collected approximately 160 hours of solar tracking data between 2017–2018. Using machine learning techniques and the veto systems, we achieved a background rate of 1.06 × 10 −5 keV −1 cm −2 s −1 at a signal efficiency of about 80% in the 0.2 to 8 keV range. Analysis of the data yielded no significant excess above background, allowing us to set a new upper limit on the product of the axion-electron and axion-photon couplings of g ae · g aγ < 7.35 × 10 −23 GeV −1 at 95% confidence level for axion masses below 10 meV. This result improves upon the previous best helioscope limit and demonstrates the potential of GridPix technology for rare event searches. Additionally, we derived a limit on the axion-photon coupling of g aγ < 9.0 × 10 −11 GeV −1 at 95% CL, which, while not surpassing CAST’s best limit, provides complementary constraints on axion models.

Beyond Standard Model↗

Constitutive model development of aluminum alloy 1100 for elevated temperature forming process

Commercially pure aluminum alloy, AA1100, presents good electrical and thermal conductivity, high formability, and low cost. Those favorable characteristics have the potential to enable bipolar plates with improved economics and enhanced performance compared to current stainless steel bipolar plates for proton exchange membrane fuel cells. An accurate constitutive model is essential to develop and optimize processing parameters and effectively control the forming process. Here, the objective of this work is to develop a constitutive model of AA1100 that is able to simulate stress-strain relation, formed geometry, and predict the onset of fracture strain to avoid forming failure. Initially, a set of tensile tests at temperature between 300 and 500°C and strain rate between 0.005 and 1.0/s were conducted to examine the deformation behavior. Then, a set of damage-based unified visco-plastic constitutive equations is proposed and calibrated based on the results of stress-strain data. A genetic algorithm optimization method is applied to search for best fitting material constants in constitutive equations. The proposed model shows good predictability of both the stress-strain relation and fracture strain at low strain rate and high temperature conditions. The accuracy of proposed model is also evaluated statistically. A comparison of the proposed model with three popular models (Arrhenius-type mode, Johnson-Cook model and Zerilli-Armstrong model) was made. The proposed model shows the best experimental agreement with correlation coefficient of 0.96 in contrast to 0.25, 0.38 and 0.75 for the popular models, respectively. The proposed model can help to optimize the elevated temperature forming process and guide die design to enable optimal geometric features in the formed components.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Effects of wind field characteristics on pitch bearing reliability: a case study of 5 MW reference wind turbine at onshore and offshore sites; Auswirkungen von Windfeldeigenschaften auf die Zuverlässigkeit von Rotorblattlagern: eine Fallstudie über eine 5-MW-Referenz-Windkraftanlage an Onshore- und Offshore-Standorten

This paper presents a study on pitch bearing basic rating life affected by wind field characteristics at both onshore and offshore wind sites. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory 5 MW reference wind turbine is selected for the study. Wind field characteristics including reference hub height mean wind speed, wind speed distribution, wind shear, and vertical inflow are studied. A decoupled approach is employed where global analysis is performed first. Second, the load effects from the global analysis are applied on a reference pitch bearing designed based on best industrial practices. For the case study onshore site, it is found that the Kernel density estimation best fits the wind distribution, while the International Electrotechnical Commission proposed distribution appears to be not suitable. Moreover, it is shown that the seed number has high effect on the bearing life in turbulence wind and the wind speeds around rated have the highest contribution in both bearing fatigue damage and extreme load failure. The results contribute to better understanding of the wind field characteristics on the pitch bearing life.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Fine Root and Soil Organic Carbon Depth Distributions are Inversely Related Across Fertility and Rainfall Gradients in Lowland Tropical Forests

Humid tropical forests contain some of the largest soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks on Earth. Much of this SOC is in subsoil, yet variation in the distribution of SOC through the soil profile remains poorly characterized across tropical forests. We used a correlative approach to quantify relationships among depth distributions of SOC, fine root biomass, nutrients and texture to 1 m depths across 43 lowland tropical forests in Panama. The sites span rainfall and soil fertility gradients, and these are largely uncorrelated for these sites. We used fitted b parameters to characterize depth distributions, where b is a numerical index based on an asymptotic relationship, such that larger b values indicate greater concentrations of root biomass or SOC at depth in the profile. Root b values ranged from 0.82 to 0.95 and were best predicted by soil pH and extractable potassium (K) stocks. For example, the three most acidic (pH < 4) and Kpoor (< 20 g K m -2 ) soils contained 76 ± 5% of fine root biomass from 0 to 10 cm depth, while the three least acidic (pH > 6.0) and most K-rich (> 50 g K m -2 ) soils contained only 41 ± 9% of fine root biomass at this depth. Root b and SOC b values were inversely related, such that a large fine root biomass in surface soils corresponded to large SOC stocks in subsoils (50–100 cm). SOC b values were best predicted by soil pH and base cation stocks, with the three most base-poor soils containing 34 ± 8% of SOC from 50 to 100 cm depth, and the three most base-rich soils containing just 9 ± 2% of SOC at this depth. Nutrient depth distributions were not related to Root b or SOC b values. Here, these data show that large surface root biomass stocks are associated with large subsoil C stocks in strongly weathered tropical soils. Further studies are required to evaluate why this occurs, and whether changes in surface root biomass, as may occur with global change, could in turn influence SOC storage in tropical forest subsoils.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗