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At least 847 records · Page 47

MODEL OF ELECTRON CLOUD INSTABILITY IN FERMILAB RECYCLER

An electron cloud instability might limit the intensity in the Fermilab Recycler after the PIP-II upgrade. A multibunch instability typically develops in the horizontal plane within a hundred turns and, in certain conditions, leads to beam loss. Recent studies have indicated that the instability is caused by an electron cloud, trapped in the Recycler index dipole magnets. We developed an analytical model of an electron cloud driven instability with the electrons trapped in combined function dipoles. The resulting instability growth rate of about 30 revolutions is consistent with experimental observations and qualitatively agrees with the simulation in the PEI code. The model allows an estimation of the instability rate for the future intensity upgrades.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Methane partial oxidation under periodic reaction conditions on Pt/Al 2 O 3

The increasing interest in utilizing methane, the primary component of natural gas, for chemical production has spurred research into methane partial oxidation (MPO) as an alternative to traditional steam methane reforming (SMR). MPO has lower energy requirements and potential for carbon capture, making it an attractive option for hydrogen production. Challenges remain, however, such as carbon deposition leading to degradation and achieving high hydrogen selectivity. Here, the impact of periodic reactor operation on MPO over a Pt/Al 2 O 3 catalyst was studied, primarily via varying reactor inlet compositions. Experiments were conducted using periodic operation strategies to assess the influence of changing reactant inlet concentrations on hydrogen formation during MPO. The results suggest that cycling between mixtures with low and high oxygen content can lead to transient hydrogen formation rates that surpass those achieved at steady state. Control experiments and density functional theory (DFT) calculations show that enhanced hydrogen formation can be attributed to the reaction between CO with hydroxyl groups at the metal and alumina support interface. Furthermore, this work underscores the critical role of surface coverages at the metal–support interface and suggests avenues for future exploration, including alternative support materials with higher OH mobility and changes in the cycling scheme to enhance catalyst performance under periodic conditions.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

The Utilization Profiles of the CCSDS Unified Space Link Protocol (USLP)

The purpose of this paper is to identify the utilization profiles for interfacing the Data Protocol Sublayer using the Unified Space Link Protocols (USLP) (reference 1) with the space link coding procedures as specified in the CCSDS Coding & Synchronization Blue Books (references 2 through 5), used in both telecommand and telemetry applications. This paper describes how the USLP Protocol utilizes the coding and synchronization sublayer to support: a. Direct to Earth (DTE) telemetry links for engineering and science data b. Direct to Earth (DTE) telemetry links for very high rate science data c. Direct from Earth (DFE) command, sequencing and flight software loads d. Space to Space Links (Proximity) utilized by orbiters for data exchange to/from surface bound assets. The CCSDS has divided the functions of the Data Link Layer into two sublayers: the Data Link Protocol Sublayer (DLP-SL) and the Coding and Synchronization Sublayer (CS-SL). The Data Link Protocol Sublayer (DLP-SL) interfaces to the users, accepting the data that is to be transported, on the sending side of the link, and delivering that data on the receiving end. The Transfer Frame is the data unit that is transferred across the Data Link Protocol Sublayer and the Coding and Synchronization Sublayer boundary. The Coding and Synchronization Sublayer (CS-SL) provides the encoding, randomization, and frame synchronization functions that prepares the USLP Transfer Frame for transport across the space link. The CS-SL is divided into 2 processes: 1) The Frame Interface Processes (FIP) performs the interface functions required to prepare the data for delivery to the Coding/Decoding Process (CDP). This process includes prepending a Frame Start Marker to the provided frame, when management has designated that the frame is not to be aligned to the codeblock or when there is no block code used. 2) The Coding/Decoding Process (CDP) performs the forward error correction processes that are used to optimize the performance of the link and minimize the error rate. The CDP creates the symbol stream that is delivered to the Physical Layer. The transfer of the USLP transfer frames across different types of space links is the focus of this paper. The Protocol Data Unit (PDU) that is passed in both directions between the Data Link Protocol Sublayer (DLP-SL) and Coding and Synchronization Sublayer (CS-SL) is the transfer frame. The USLP frame structure provides flexibility that can be constrained by the functions utilized within the CS-SL that prepare the transfer frame for transit. For example, the USLP transfer frame contains a length field that enables the frame to be of variable length but CS-SL under certain conditions may constrain the frame to be fixed in length. This paper describes 5 operational modes available for use by the Data Link Layer to provide data exchange across the USLP space link. These modes are different because different operational requirements apply to vastly different types of space links and thus the communications implementation requirements differ. The environmental issues include the power or energy available, the distance between the end points of the link, the complexity of the equipment available at those end points, the atmospheric conditions and radiometric frequency selection. The CS-SL utilizes different forward error correcting codes supported by specific operational modes to configure the data for transit. This paper describes all of the operational modes in a series of data models which decompose the functionality between the Data Link Protocol Sublayer and the Coding and Synchronization sublayer. The operational modes described are: 1. Uncoded Mode: has been used for short links that contain significant available power to provide an acceptable frame error rate. The frames in this mode can be variable in length and typically use an error detection algorithm (i.e., CRC) to determine if there are errors in the received frame. 2. Convolutional Only Mode: is currently the prime forward error correction coding used for the proximity links. The frames in this mode can be variable in length and typically use an error detection algorithm (i.e., CRC) to determine if there are errors in the received frame. 3. Variable Length Frame Aligned to Variable Length Codeblock (TC): is used for Direct from Earth links were power levels are high and the simple, least complex code i.e., the BCH code is used. This mode has been in use since the early 1970s. The BCH code is a short code and the decoder is easy to implement. 4. Fixed Length Frame Aligned to Fixed Length Codeblock (AOS/TM): was introduced when the concatenated Convolutional and Reed-Solomon Code was formulated to provide significant reduction in link data error rate and the ability to determine if there was an error in the decoded codeblock. The frame is aligned to the codeblock so that there is a one to one relationship of frame errors to codeblock errors without additional error detection coding being added. This mode requires the protocol frames to be the exact size of the message portion of the codeblock. 5. Frames Unaligned to Fixed Length Codeblocks (Currently used for very high rates and space to space links): This mode is currently used for missions that have a very high data rate that can be controlled adaptively as the environment changes and as the next generation operating mode for the proximity link. This mode from a coded data stream point of view is exactly like that described in 4. above, except that the frame need not be aligned to the codeblock. There is no requirement on frame length when using this mode. Thus when using USLP it can be used to support links that require short or long frames. There is also no mandatory requirement that frames cannot be separated by idle data reducing the tight data rate connection requirements between the data link protocol sublayer and the coding & synchronization sublayer. In conclusion, how these operational modes can be put to use in mission operational scenarios is described for Direct from Earth links (DFE), Direct to Earth links (DTE), and Proximity links.

Greenberg, E.↗

Toward Rate Estimation for Transient Surveys. I. Assessing Transient Detectability and Volume Sensitivity for iPTF

The past couple of decades have seen an emergence of transient detection facilities in various avenues of time-domain astronomy that have provided us with a rich data set of transients. The rates of these transients have implications in star formation, progenitor models, evolution channels, and cosmology measurements. The crucial component of any rate calculation is the detectability and spacetime volume sensitivity of a survey to a particular transient type as a function of many intrinsic and extrinsic parameters. Fully sampling that multidimensional parameter space is challenging. Instead, we present a scheme to assess the detectability of transients using supervised machine learning. The data product is a classifier that determines the detection likelihood of sources resulting from an image subtraction pipeline associated with time-domain survey telescopes, taking into consideration the intrinsic properties of the transients and the observing conditions. We apply our method to assess the spacetime volume sensitivity of type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) in the intermediate Palomar Transient Factory (iPTF) and obtain the result, ⟨ VT ⟩ Ia = (2.93 ± 0.21) × 10 -2 Gpc 3 yr. With rate estimates in the literature, this volume sensitivity gives a count of 680-1160 SNe Ia detectable by iPTF, which is consistent with the archival data. With a view toward wider applicability of this technique we do a preliminary computation for long-duration type IIp supernovae (SNe IIp) and find ⟨ VT ⟩ IIa = (7.80 ± 0.76) × 10 -4 Gpc 3 yr. This classifier can be used for computationally fast spacetime volume sensitivity calculation of any generic transient type using their light-curve properties. Hence, it can be used as a tool to facilitate calculation of transient rates in a range of time-domain surveys, given suitable training sets.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Dynamic force and stability prediction for milling using feed rate scheduling software and time-domain simulation

This paper describes: 1) the use of feed rate scheduling software to predict the radial depth of cut variation for three-axis milling toolpaths and; 2) the use of the radial depth profile in a time-domain simulation to predict dynamic cutting forces. The time-domain simulation, which also includes the tool tip frequency response functions and force model (which relates the cutting force components to the chip geometry) as inputs, enables dynamic force profiles to be predicted and parameter combinations that cause chatter to be identified. A ramp geometry is selected that provides constantly varying radial depth and force predictions are completed at multiple axial depths for comparison to measured forces. Both stable and unstable (chatter) milling conditions were observed with good agreement between time-domain simulation and measurement results. The value of combining the feed rate scheduling software and time-domain simulation is demonstrated.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Quarterly Research Performance Progress Report (Q8)

As part of Task 1, we have started by testing our modeling capabilities by reproducing isothermal DFIT simulations presented in the literature. Once satisfied with the results we have started by targeting the modeling of the DFITs at conducted at well 58-32. We have a identified a specific test (cycle 4 in zone 2) as the most interesting to be model with GEOS hydraulic fracturing module. Thus, we have first produced results with an isothermal model and adjusted model parameters to get a satisfying match with field pressure data. The, we have added thermal effects and compared the modeling results with and without thermal effects to estimate how thermal effects may influence test interpretation. Models seem to suggest that, for small volumes of fluid, thermal effects are moderate. In Task 2, we have adapted GEOS phase-field formulation to be able to simulate near-wellbore hydraulic fracture nucleation and propagation. We have devised a novel formulation that, compared to other existing ones, incorporates rock strengths. We have submitted a journal publication about our work. We are currently employing this phase-field formulation to model the experiments taking place at U Pitt and help us understand the effect of various parameters. In Task 3, we have built a model of the region surround well 16A and have started modeling stage 3 stimulation because of its simpler planar geometry. After calibrating simulation parameters using known analytical solutions, we have simulated the stage 3 stimulation using our isothermal hydraulic fracturing module, varying the permeability field, the stress conditions including different physics to get a better understanding of the numerical challenges and of the effects of varying these parameters on the simulation results. In Task 4 laboratory experimentation, a set of specialized drilling and injection tools has been customized and constructed to accommodate an inclined well with an orientation of up to 30 degrees relative to material anisotropy or principal stress axes. These inclined samples have also undergone thermal stress and hydraulic fracturing at a temperature of 190 degrees Celsius. Furthermore, both vertical and deviated sampling testing setups enable an extended analysis of post-peak pressure behaviors, facilitating post-test pressure analyses such as the G-function, step rate, and fracture reopening measurements. Thus, the key components of in-situ stress estimation can be extracted and validated through our experiment, providing a solid foundation for validating existing in-situ stress estimation theories or proposing new ones. Simultaneously, we are integrating computer vision techniques with traditional experimental fracture observation methods such as multi-overcore/slicing and water-penetration fracture observation. This combination will prove beneficial in populating the hydraulic fracture patterns database, generated under challenging EGS conditions. This approach aims to deepen our understanding of the complexities in EGS reservoirs and pave the way for future data-driven investigations. Additionally, PITT has also equipped the ELE International compression machine, which is now prepared for conducting indirect tensile and fracture toughness tests. These tests will aid in characterizing how rock fabrics influence the resulting fracture patterns. Additionally, we have completed the required personnel training and gained access to Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) and Energy Dispersive Spectroscopy (EDS) for conducting more detailed characterization and analysis of rock fabrics, as well as the examination of thermal and hydraulically induced fracture patterns. Thus, the PITT team has effectively demonstrated the capabilities of our experimental apparatuses in exploring the thermal effects, well deviation angles, material anisotropy, and operational choices (such as circulation rate, injection fluid viscosity, and injection rate) and their impact on pressure responses and fracture trajectories under the Utah FORGE conditions.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Neuromuscular adaptation to actual and simulated weightlessness

The chronic "unloading" of the neuromuscular system during spaceflight has detrimental functional and morphological effects. Changes in the metabolic and mechanical properties of the musculature can be attributed largely to the loss of muscle protein and the alteration in the relative proportion of the proteins in skeletal muscle, particularly in the muscles that have an antigravity function under normal loading conditions. These adaptations could result in decrements in the performance of routine or specialized motor tasks, both of which may be critical for survival in an altered gravitational field, i.e., during spaceflight and during return to 1 G. For example, the loss in extensor muscle mass requires a higher percentage of recruitment of the motor pools for any specific motor task. Thus, a faster rate of fatigue will occur in the activated muscles. These consequences emphasize the importance of developing techniques for minimizing muscle loss during spaceflight, at least in preparation for the return to 1 G after spaceflight. New insights into the complexity and the interactive elements that contribute to the neuromuscular adaptations to space have been gained from studies of the role of exercise and/or growth factors as countermeasures of atrophy. The present chapter illustrates the inevitable interactive effects of neural and muscular systems in adapting to space. It also describes the considerable progress that has been made toward the goal of minimizing the functional impact of the stimuli that induce the neuromuscular adaptations to space.

Non-NASA Center↗

A general mechanism for gel layer formation on borosilicate glass under aqueous corrosion

Mineral and glass dissolution is a scientific topic deeply investigated but incompletely understood and of a great interest for the geochemical and materials science communities. If the interfacial dissolution/reprecipitation mechanism seems to be applicable to most of silicate minerals, the debate remains open concerning glass. Here we studied two model glasses, a ternary borosilicate (CJ1) and the same glass doped with 4.1 mol% of Al2O3 (CJ2). The two glasses were altered at 90°C, pH 9, and in conditions far and close to saturation with respect to amorphous silica, to determine the initial and residual rates. Moreover, a specific experiment was conducted for a short duration with a solution highly enriched with 18O and 29Si isotopes to understand how passivating gels form. SEM, TEM and ToF-SIMS characterization, along with Monte Carlo simulations were used to understand the rate limiting reactions at play and infer the role of Al. We show that Al yields a slower matrix dissolution in dilute conditions. However, it slows down he formation and the maturation of the passivating gel and favors alteration by partial hydrolysis of Si and Al entities followed by in-situ reorganization/relaxation into a porous network. Unexpectedly, CJ1 experienced both interfacial dissolution/reprecipitation and partial hydrolysis followed by in situ reorganization of the silicate network during the course of a single experiment. This study offers a unified concept that can pave the way for the future development of a predictive kinetic model based on a detailed description of bond breaking and bond forming as a function of glass composition and alteration conditions.

Gin, Stephane↗

Chemical evolution in spiral and irregular galaxies

A brief review of models of chemical evolution of the interstellar medium in our galaxy and other galaxies is presented. These models predict the time variation and radial dependence of chemical composition in the gas as function of the input parameters; initial mass function, stellar birth rate, chemical composition of mass lost by stars during their evolution (yields), and the existence of large scale mass flows, like infall from the halo, outflow to the intergalactic medium or radial flows within a galaxy. At present there is a considerable wealth of observational data on the composition of HII regions in spiral and irregular galaxies to constrain the models. Comparisons are made between theory and the observed physical conditions. In particular, studies of helium, carbon, nitrogen and oxygen abundances are reviewed. In many molecular clouds the information we have on the amount of H2 is derived from the observed CO column density, and a standard CO/H2 ratio derived for the solar neighborhood. Chemical evolution models and the observed variations in O/H and N/O values, point out the need to include these results in a CO/H2 relation that should be, at least, a function of the O/H ratio. This aspect is also discussed.

Torres-Peimbert, S.↗

Cryptococcus neoformans Secretes Small Molecules That Inhibit IL-1 β Inflammasome-Dependent Secretion

Cryptococcus neoformans is an encapsulated yeast that causes disease mainly in immunosuppressed hosts. It is considered a facultative intracellular pathogen because of its capacity to survive and replicate inside phagocytes, especially macrophages. This ability is heavily dependent on various virulence factors, particularly the glucuronoxylomannan (GXM) component of the polysaccharide capsule. Inflammasome activation in phagocytes is usually protective against fungal infections, including cryptococcosis. Nevertheless, recognition of C. neoformans by inflammasome receptors requires specific changes in morphology or the opsonization of the yeast, impairing proper inflammasome function. In this context, we analyzed the impact of molecules secreted by C. neoformans B3501 strain and its acapsular mutant Δcap67 in inflammasome activation in an in vitro model. Our results showed that conditioned media derived from B3501 was capable of inhibiting inflammasome-dependent events (i.e., IL-1β secretion and LDH release via pyroptosis) more strongly than conditioned media from Δcap67, regardless of GXM presence. We also demonstrated that macrophages treated with conditioned media were less responsive against infection with the virulent strain H99, exhibiting lower rates of phagocytosis, increased fungal burdens, and enhanced vomocytosis. Moreover, we showed that the aromatic metabolite DL-Indole-3-lactic acid (ILA) and DL-p-Hydroxyphenyllactic acid (HPLA) were present in B3501’s conditioned media and that ILA alone or with HPLA is involved in the regulation of inflammasome activation by C. neoformans. These results were confirmed by in vivo experiments, where exposure to conditioned media led to higher fungal burdens in Acanthamoeba castellanii culture as well as in higher fungal loads in the lungs of infected mice. Overall, the results presented show that conditioned media from a wild-type strain can inhibit a vital recognition pathway and subsequent fungicidal functions of macrophages, contributing to fungal survival in vitro and in vivo and suggesting that secretion of aromatic metabolites, such as ILA, during cryptococcal infections fundamentally impacts pathogenesis.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Post-irradiation Heating Tests of As-Irradiated AGR-3/4 TRISO Fuel Compacts

Four post-irradiation heating tests of fuel compacts from the U.S. Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR)-3/4 irradiation experiment were completed. In addition to tristructural isotropic (TRISO)-coated driver fuel, each compact contained designed-to-fail (DTF) particles with fuel kernels coated only in pyrocarbon so as to simulate exposed kernels. Tests at 1600/1700°C, 1400°C, and 1200°C were performed to measure fission product release as a function of time and temperature. Silver release was highest in the 1200°C test, supporting the observation that silver release rates are highest in the 1100–1300°C range. Compared to tests of AGR-1 compacts with no exposed kernels, the Cs-134 and Kr-85 releases were noticeably higher in AGR-3/4. The exposed kernels’ contributions to Eu and Sr release are inconclusive, due to the difficulty in distinguishing among the combined effects of higher irradiation temperatures in these particular AGR-3/4 compacts, the presence of the DTF particles, and the Fuel Accident Condition Simulator (FACS) test temperatures. These data can be used to make inferences about fission product retention in exposed kernels as a function of time and temperature.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Effect of proton irradiation on anatase TiO 2 nanotube anodes for lithium-ion batteries

The role of defects in the charge transfer and transport properties of electrode materials for lithium-ion batteries has recently garnered increased interest. It is widely known that ion irradiation promotes the formation of defects within a crystalline solid. Within all ion species used for irradiation, protons are expected to create primarily simple Frenkel pair point defects without significantly changing the stoichiometry of the damaged region of the target material. This work investigates the effect of proton irradiation at varying temperatures on the electrochemical properties of anatase TiO 2 nanotube (TiO2-NT) electrode for lithium-ion battery applications. Anatase TiO 2 -NTs are irradiated at both room temperature (25 °C) and 250 °C and compared with non-irradiated control specimens. Characterization by Raman spectroscopy and XRD suggests that the irradiation at both temperatures does not alter the long-range order of the nanotubes. Yet, high-resolution TEM reveals that defect clusters are formed upon irradiation and increase in size with increasing temperature. Both irradiated samples exhibit increased capacity and enhanced rate capability compared with the non-irradiated control, which can be explained by increased storage sites as well as improved Li + diffusivity due to the presence of irradiation-induced defects. This study presents a unique perspective on pathways to engineer functional nanostructured electrode materials by tailoring irradiation conditions.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Volatility of sodium, potassium, and cesium perrhenates determined by thermogravimetry

Here, in this study, we investigated the volatility of sodium, potassium, and cesium perrhenates using thermogravimetry (TG) performed on single salts and their binary mixed salts. We performed simultaneous TG and differential scanning calorimetry under a ramp heating condition at 10°C/min up to 1200°C to characterize volatilization behavior as a function of temperature. We also performed isothermal TG over a temperature range of 700 to 975°C to estimate the vapor pressures of the alkali perrhenates based on a modified Langmuir equation that relates the rate of free evaporation from the open surface to vapor pressure. In this paper, we discuss the results of our study on the temperature of evaporation and temperature-dependent vapor pressure of sodium, potassium, and cesium perrhenates in relation to rhenium volatilization behavior observed during melting of simulated waste glass.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Visco-inertial gas flow through wellbore cement fractures

Understanding the nature of fluid flow through fractured wellbore cement is fundamental for evaluating the leakage potential and risk assessments of leaky wellbores. In this study, the conditions that require considering visco-inertial flow for describing the gas flow through wellbore cement fractures were investigated. Nitrogen gas flow tests were conducted on fractured cement samples under varying pressure conditions and flow rates, covering both viscous and visco-inertial flow regimes. The data substantially deviated from Darcy's law at higher flowrates and were well-fit to Forchheimer's equation for visco-inertial flow. The inertial coefficient and critical Reynolds number were expressed as a function of the hydraulic aperture. Finally, the empirical function obtained from the experiments was used as an input to numerical simulations which showed the significant role of visco-inertial flow in wellhead pressure build-up and leakage rates, and demonstrated the importance of visco-inertial flow when modeling gas flow through wellbore cement fractures.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Artificial Photosynthetic Reaction Center Exhibiting Acid-Responsive Regulation of Photoinduced Charge Separation

Charge separation (CS) is the primary light-driven reaction in photosynthesis whereas onphotochemical quenching (NPQ) is a photoprotective regulatory mechanism employed by many photosynthetic organisms to dynamically modulate energy flow within the photosynthetic apparatus in response to fluctuating light conditions. Activated by decreases in lumen pH produced during periods of high photon flux, NPQ induces rapid thermal dissipation of excess excitation energy. As a result, the rate of CS decreases, thereby limiting the accumulation of potentially deleterious reactive intermediates and byproducts. In this article, a molecular triad that functionally mimics the effects of NPQ associated with an artificial photosynthetic reaction center is described. Steady-state absorption and emission, time-resolved fluorescence, and transient absorption spectroscopies have been used to demonstrate a 1 order of magnitude reduction in the CS quantum yield via reversible protonation of an excited-state-quenching molecular switch moiety. As in the natural system, the populations of unquenched and quenched states and therefore the overall yields of CS were found to be dependent on acid concentration.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Ligand Desorption and Fragmentation in Oleate-Capped CdSe Nanocrystals under High-Intensity Photoexcitation

Semiconductor nanocrystals (NCs) offer prospective use as active optical elements in photovoltaics, light-emitting diodes, lasers, and photocatalysts due to their tunable optical absorption and emission properties, high stability, and scalable solution processing, as well as compatibility with additive manufacturing routes. Over the course of experiments, during device fabrication, or while in use commercially, these materials are often subjected to intense or prolonged electronic excitation and high carrier densities. The influence of such conditions on ligand integrity and binding remains underexplored. Here, in this study, we expose CdSe NCs to laser excitation and monitor changes in oleate that is covalently attached to the NC surface using nuclear magnetic resonance as a function of time and laser intensity. Higher photon doses cause increased rates of ligand loss from the particles, with upward of 50% total ligand desorption measured for the longest, most intense excitation. Surprisingly, for a range of excitation intensities, fragmentation of the oleate is detected and occurs concomitantly with formation of aldehydes, terminal alkenes, H 2 , and water. After illumination, NC size, shape, and bandgap remain constant although low-energy absorption features (Urbach tails) develop in some samples, indicating formation of substantial trap states. The observed reaction chemistry, which here occurs with low photon to chemical conversion efficiency, suggests that ligand reactivity may require examination for improved NC dispersion stability but can also be manipulated to yield desired photocatalytically accessed chemical species.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Variation in hydroclimate sustains tropical forest biomass and promotes functional diversity

The fate of tropical forests under climate change is unclear as a result, in part, of the uncertainty in projected changes in precipitation and in the ability of vegetation models to capture the effects of drought-induced mortality on aboveground biomass (AGB). In this work, we evaluated the ability of a terrestrial biosphere model with demography and hydrodynamics (Ecosystem Demography, ED2-hydro) to simulate AGB and mortality of four tropical tree plant functional types (PFTs) that operate along light- and water-use axes. Model predictions were compared with observations of canopy trees at Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama. We then assessed the implications of eight hypothetical precipitation scenarios, including increased annual precipitation, reduced inter-annual variation, El Niño-related droughts and drier wet or dry seasons, on AGB and functional diversity of the model forest. When forced with observed meteorology, ED2-hydro predictions capture multiple BCI benchmarks. ED2-hydro predicts that AGB will be sustained under lower rainfall via shifts in the functional composition of the forest, except under the drier dry-season scenario. Furthermore these results support the hypothesis that inter-annual variation in mean and seasonal precipitation promotes the coexistence of functionally diverse PFTs because of the relative differences in mortality rates. If the hydroclimate becomes chronically drier or wetter, functional evenness related to drought tolerance may decline.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Global land model development: time to shift from a plant functional type to a plant functional trait approach (Final Report)

This project advanced global land models by shifting from the current plant functional type approach to one that better utilizes what is known about the importance and variability of plant traits, within a framework of simultaneously improving fundamental physiological relations that are at the core of model carbon cycling algorithms. A primary goal for Earth system modeling is to make accurate predictions of the future trajectory of the climate system, based on a mechanistic understanding of processes regulating fluxes of mass and energy among system components. Land plays an important role in modifying the Earth’s mass and energy balance, as a critical link in the global cycling of carbon, among others. Land surface models have developed to include mechanistic representations of vegetation physiology, carbon and nutrient dynamics in plants and soils, how they might respond to changing climate and chemistry, and how those changes might feedback to influence changes in atmospheric greenhouse gases themselves. Existing models represent the global distribution of vegetation types using the Plant Functional Type concept. Plant Functional Types are classes of plant species with similar evolutionary and life history with presumably similar responses to environmental conditions like CO 2 , water and nutrient availability. Fixed properties for each Plant Functional Type are specified through a collection of physiological parameters, or traits. These traits, mostly physiological in nature (e.g., leaf nitrogen and longevity) are used in model algorithms to estimate ecosystem properties and/or drive calculated process rates. In most models, 5 to 15 functional types represent terrestrial vegetation; in essence, they assume there are a total of only 5 to 15 different kinds of plants on the entire globe. This assumption of constant plant traits captured within the functional type concept has serious limitations, as a single set of traits does not reflect trait variation observed within and between species and communities. While this simplification was necessary decades past, substantial improvement is now possible. Rather than assigning a small number of constant parameter values to all grid cells in a model, we developed procedures that predict a frequency distribution of values for any given grid cell. Thus, by incorporating the mean and variance model fidelity has been improved. The trait-based approach has improved land modeling by (1) incorporating patterns and heterogeneity of traits into model parameterization, thus evolving away from a framework that considers large areas of vegetation to have near identical trait values and (2) allowing for improved treatment of physiological responses to environmental drivers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗