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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 847 records · Page 47
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2018

Accelerated Distributed Energy Management for Microgrids

This paper considers the optimal energy management for a microgrid. The goal of optimal energy management is to minimize the total generation cost while meeting total demand and satisfying individual generator output limits. To achieve this goal, we develop a distributed algorithm based on the consensus theory and gradient estimation technique. Compared to the existing algorithms with diminishing step-sizes, the proposed algorithm enjoys a faster convergence speed due to the fixed step-size, and thus increases the computation speed, and reduces the computation and communication burden. The proposed distributed algorithm is applicable to both fixed and time-varying directed communication networks. We show that the convergence of the proposed distributed algorithm is achieved if the fixed communication network is strongly connected, or if the time-varying communication network is uniformly jointly strongly connected. Numerical simulation results are used to illustrate and demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

Du, Wen↗
DOE OSTI2024

Simulation-based inference for parameter estimation of complex watershed simulators

High-resolution, spatially distributed process-based (PB) simulators are widely employed in the study of complex catchment processes and their responses to a changing climate. However, calibrating these PB simulators using observed data remains a significant challenge due to several persistent issues, including the following: (1) intractability stemming from the computational demands and complex responses of simulators, which renders infeasible calculation of the conditional probability of parameters and data, and (2) uncertainty stemming from the choice of simplified representations of complex natural hydrologic processes. Here, we demonstrate how simulation-based inference (SBI) can help address both of these challenges with respect to parameter estimation. SBI uses a learned mapping between the parameter space and observed data to estimate parameters for the generation of calibrated simulations. To demonstrate the potential of SBI in hydrologic modeling, we conduct a set of synthetic experiments to infer two common physical parameters – Manning's coefficient and hydraulic conductivity – using a representation of a snowmelt-dominated catchment in Colorado, USA. We introduce novel deep-learning (DL) components to the SBI approach, including an “emulator” as a surrogate for the PB simulator to rapidly explore parameter responses. We also employ a density-based neural network to represent the joint probability of parameters and data without strong assumptions about its functional form. While addressing intractability, we also show that, if the simulator does not represent the system under study well enough, SBI can yield unreliable parameter estimates. Approaches to adopting the SBI framework for cases in which multiple simulator(s) may be adequate are introduced using a performance-weighting approach. The synthetic experiments presented here test the performance of SBI, using the relationship between the surrogate and PB simulators as a proxy for the real case.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantile-specific heritability of plasma fibrinogen concentrations

Fibrinogen is a moderately heritable blood protein showing different genetic effects by sex, race, smoking status, pollution exposure, and disease status. These interactions may be explained in part by “quantile-dependent expressivity”, where the effect size of a genetic variant depends upon whether the phenotype (e.g. plasma fibrinogen concentration) is high or low relative to its distribution. Determine whether fibrinogen heritability (h 2 ) is quantile-specific, and whether quantile-specific h 2 could account for fibrinogen gene-environment interactions. Plasma fibrinogen concentrations from 5689 offspring-parent pairs and 1932 sibships from the Framingham Heart Study were analyzed. Quantile-specific heritability from offspring-parent (β OP , h 2 = 2β OP /(1+r spouse )) and full-sib regression slopes (β FS , h 2 = {(1+8r spouse β FS ) 0.05 –1}/(2r spouse )) were robustly estimated by quantile regression with nonparametric significance assigned from 1000 bootstrap samples. Quantile-specific h 2 (±SE) increased with increasing percentiles of the offspring’s age- and sex-adjusted fibrinogen distribution when estimated from β OP (P trend = 5.5x10 -6 ): 0.30±0.05 at the 10 th , 0.37±0.04 at the 25 th , 0.48±0.05 at the 50 th , 0.61±0.06 at the 75 th , and 0.65±0.08 at the 90 th percentile, and when estimated from β FS (P trend = 0.008): 0.28±0.04 at the 10 th , 0.31±0.04 at the 25 th , 0.36±0.03 at the 50 th , 0.41±0.05 at the 75 th , and 0.50±0.06 at the 90 th percentile. The larger genetic effect at higher average fibrinogen concentrations may contribute to fibrinogen’s greater heritability in women than men and in Blacks than Whites, and greater increase from smoking and air pollution for the FGB -455G>A A-allele. It may also explain greater fibrinogen differences between: 1) FGB -455G>A genotypes during acute phase reactions than usual conditions, 2) GTSM1 and IL-6 -572C>G genotypes in smokers than nonsmokers, 3) FGB -148C>T genotypes in untreated than treated diabetics, and LPL PvuII genotypes in macroalbuminuric than normoalbuminuric patients. Fibrinogen heritability is quantile specific, which may explain or contribute to its gene-environment interactions. The analyses do not disprove the traditional gene-environment interpretations of these examples, rather quantile-dependent expressivity provides an alternative explanation that warrants consideration.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Specifying angular reference for robust three-phase state estimation

While the phase angle of any of the bus voltages can be chosen as the angular reference in the state estimation formulation of positive sequence networks, the same approach does not readily extend to three-phase network state estimation problem. It is commonly assumed that there is at least one bus where the bus voltages are perfectly balanced with phase angles displaced ±120° and these balanced three phase voltages are used as the three-phase reference in solving the three-phase state estimation problem. This assumption may be quite realistic in transmission networks, and for distribution networks with a strong transmission system connection. However, it might not be realistic to assume existence of a perfectly balanced reference bus in today’s distribution systems with ever increasing penetration of renewable sources or for isolated operation of microgrids. In this paper, a novel state estimation formulation will be presented which facilitates correct solution irrespective of the existence of buses with perfectly balanced voltages. The new formulation is general, and lends itself to bad data processing. It yields accurate results in any three-phase power system irrespective of its operating conditions (balanced or highly unbalanced), configuration (isolated microgrid, connected to transmission system, etc.) and whether or not it contains any synchronous generators. The performance of the method is validated using the IEEE 123 bus three-phase system.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying Uncertainty in All-to-All Estimates of Space Object Conjunction Probabilities using U-Statistics

Predicting space object conjunctions is inherently probabilistic due to initial state and orbit model uncertainty. A commonly considered Monte Carlo estimator of the conjunction probability is the ’all-to-all’ estimator. Given independent random samples of the trajectories of both objects, the estimator is the percentage of all pairs of trajectories that result in a conjunction. Intuitively, the all-to-all estimator is the best possible estimator of the conjunction probability since it considers all pairs of Monte Carlo samples. However, its distribution is not available in closed-form, which limits its use in practice and makes this intuition difficult to make rigorous. In this paper, the all-to-all estimator is identified as a U-statistic, which implies that it has several favorable properties. Specifically, the estimator is the minimum variance unbiased estimator of the conjunction probability and is asymptotically Gaussian distributed. An approximate confidence interval for the conjunction probability is obtained from an estimate of the asymptotic Gaussian distribution. We show how to efficiently compute the confidence interval and demonstrate that the interval has the nominal coverage level. The confidence intervals are also seen to be narrower than those based on the commonly-used each-to-each estimator. Furthermore, the all-to-all estimator is shown to allow different Monte Carlo sample sizes, whereas the each-to-each estimator requires equal sample sizes.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

Physics-Informed Deep Neural Network Method for Limited Observability State Estimation

The precise knowledge regarding the state of the power grid is important in order to ensure optimal and reliable grid operation. Specifically, knowing the state of the distribution grid becomes increasingly important as more renewable energy sources are connected directly into the distribution network, increasing the fluctuations of the injected power. In this paper, we consider the case when the distribution grid becomes partially observable, due to for example cyber attacks, and the state estimation problem is under-determined. We present a new methodology that leverages a deep neural network (DNN) to estimate the grid state. The standard DNN training method is modified to explicitly incorporate the physical information of the grid topology and line/shunt admittance. We show that our method leads to a superior accuracy of the estimation when compared to the case when no physical information is provided. Finally, we compare the performance of our method to the standard state estimation approach, which is based on the weighted least squares with pseudo-measurements, and show that our method performs significantly better with respect to the estimation accuracy.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2019

Ringed seal demography in a changing climate

Abstract Climate change is affecting species’ distributions and abundances worldwide. Baseline population estimates, against which future observations may be compared, are necessary if we are to detect ecological change. Arctic sea ice ecosystems are changing rapidly and we lack baseline population estimates for many ice‐associated species. Provided we can detect them, changes in Arctic marine ecosystems may be signaled by changes in indicator species such as ringed seals ( Pusa hispida ). Ringed seal monitoring has provided estimates of survival and fertility rates, but these have not been used for population‐level inference. Using matrix population models, we synthesized existing demographic parameters to obtain estimates of historical ringed seal population growth and structure in Amundsen Gulf and Prince Albert Sound, Canada. We then formalized existing hypotheses about the effects of emerging environmental stressors (i.e., earlier spring ice breakup and reduced snow depth) on ringed seal pup survival. Coupling the demographic model to ice and snow forecasts available from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project resulted in projections of ringed seal population size and structure up to the year 2100. These projections showed median declines in population size ranging from 50% to 99%. Corresponding to these projected declines were substantial changes in population structure, with increasing proportions of ringed seal pups and adults and declining proportions of juveniles. We explored if currently collected, harvest‐based data could be used to detect the projected changes in population stage structure. Our model suggests that at a present sample size of 100 seals per year, the projected changes in stage structure would only be reliably detected by mid‐century, even for the most extreme climate models. This modeling process revealed inconsistencies in existing estimates of ringed seal demographic rates. Mathematical population models such as these can contribute both to understanding past population trends as well as predicting future ones, both of which are necessary if we are to detect and interpret future observations.

Reimer, Jody R.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Direct Bayesian inference for fault severity assessment in Digital-Twin-Based fault diagnosis

For applications in condition-based maintenance of nuclear systems, the assessment of fault severity is crucial. In this work, we developed a framework that allows for direct inference of the probability distributions of possible faults in a system. Here, we employed a model-based approach with model residuals generated from analytical redundancy relations provided by physics-based models of the system components. From real-time sensor readings, the values of the model residuals can be calculated, and the posterior probability distributions of the faults can be computed directly using the methods of Bayesian networks. From the posterior distribution of each fault, one can estimate the fault probability based on a chosen threshold and assess the severity of the fault. By eliminating the discretization and simplifications in middle steps, this approach allows us to leverage the available computational resources to provide more accurate fault probability estimates and severity assessments.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Coal emissions adverse human health effects associated with ultrafine/nano-particles role and resultant engineering controls

There are multiple elements which enable coal geochemistry: (1) boiler and pollution control system design parameters, (2) temperature of flue gas at collection point, (3) feed coal and also other fuels like petroleum coke, tires and biomass geochemistry and (4) fuel feed particle size distribution homogeneity distribution, maintenance of pulverisers, etc. Even though there is a large number of hazardous element pollutants in the coal-processing industry, investigations on micrometer and nanometer-sized particles including their aqueous colloids formation reactions and their behaviour entering the environment are relatively few in numbers. X-ray diffraction (XRD), High Resolution-Transmission Electron microscopy (HR-TEM)/ (Energy Dispersive Spectroscopy) EDS/ (selected-area diffraction pattern) SAED, Field Emission-Scanning Electron Microscopy (FE-SEM)/EDS and granulometric distribution analysis were used as an integrated characterization techniques tool box to determine both geochemistry and nanomineralogy for coal fly ashes (CFAs) from Brazil´s largest coal power plant. Ultrafine/nano-particles size distribution from coal combustion emissions was estimated during the tests. In addition the iron and silicon content was determined as 54.6% of the total 390 different particles observed by electron bean, results aimed that these two particles represent major minerals in the environment particles normally. These data may help in future investigations to asses human health actions related with nano-particles.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Identifying arbitrary parameter zonation using multiple level set functions

In this paper, we extended the analytical level set method [1, 2] for identifying a piece-wisely heterogeneous (zonation) binary system to the case with an arbitrary number of materials with unknown material properties. In the developed level set approach, starting from an initial guess, the material interfaces are propagated through iterations such that the residuals between the simulated and observed state variables (hydraulic head) is minimized. We derived an expression for the propagation velocity of the interface between any two materials, which is related to the permeability contrast between the materials on two sides of the interface, the sensitivity of the head to permeability, and the head residual. We also formulated an expression for updating the permeability of all materials, which is consistent with the steepest descent of the objective function. The developed approach has been demonstrated through many examples, ranging from totally synthetic cases to a case where the flow conditions are representative of a groundwater contaminant site at the Los Alamos National Laboratory. These examples indicate that the level set method can successfully identify zonation structures, even if the number of materials in the model domain is not exactly known in advance. Although the evolution of the material zonation depends on the initial guess field, inverse modeling runs starting with different initial guesses fields may converge to the similar final zonation structure. These examples also suggest that identifying interfaces of spatially distributed heterogeneities is more important than estimating their permeability values.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Seasonal modulation of crustal seismicity in northeastern Japan driven by snow load

Numerous studies have reported that surface hydrological loading can seasonally modulate seismicity rates at crustal depths. For example, substantial winter snow accumulation occurs across the Japanese Islands, and these snowy regions appear to have seasonally modulated the occurrence of previous large inland earthquakes. Therefore, it is important to investigate the impact of seasonal stress changes on crustal seismicity to deepen our understanding of earthquake generation. Here we constrain seasonal changes in the surface load across northeastern Japan using Global Navigation Satellite System surface displacements and evaluate the potential relationship between temporal trends in inland seismicity and estimated seasonal stress changes. The spatial distribution of the seasonal surface load is consistent with snow depth along the Sea of Japan. The inland seismicity beneath northeastern Japan is modestly modulated by the seasonal stress changes that are induced by the annual snow load. However, this seasonal response is weaker than that in other regions. This weak modulation may be due to the small surface-load-induced stress perturbation relative to the long-term-averaged stressing rate and/or the limited presence of crustal fluids to trigger seismicity in Japan.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multidimensional Distributional Neural Network Output Demonstrated in Super‐Resolution of Surface Wind Speed

Accurate quantification of uncertainty in neural network predictions remains a central challenge for scientific applications involving high-dimensional, correlated data. While existing methods capture either aleatoric or epistemic uncertainty, few offer closed-form, multidimensional distributions that preserve spatial correlation while remaining computationally tractable. In this work, we present a framework for training neural networks with a multidimensional Gaussian loss, generating a closed-form predictive distribution over outputs informed by non-identically distributed training data. Our approach captures aleatoric uncertainty by iteratively estimating the means and covariance matrices, and is demonstrated on a super-resolution example out-of-training-sample. We leverage a Fourier representation of the covariance matrix to stabilize network training and preserve spatial correlation. We introduce a novel regularization strategy—referred to as information sharing—that interpolates between image-specific and global covariance estimates, enabling convergence of the super-resolution downscaling network trained on image-specific distributional loss functions. This framework allows for efficient sampling, explicit correlation modeling, and extensions to more complex distribution families all without disrupting prediction performance. We demonstrate the method on a surface wind speed downscaling task and discuss its broader applicability to uncertainty-aware prediction in scientific models.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Free-moving Quantitative Gamma-ray Imaging

The ability to map and estimate the activity of radiological source distributions in unknown three-dimensional environments has applications in the prevention and response to radiological accidents or threats as well as the enforcement and verification of international nuclear non-proliferation agreements. Such a capability requires well-characterized detector response functions, accurate time-dependent detector position and orientation data, a digitized representation of the surrounding 3D environment, and appropriate image reconstruction and uncertainty quantification methods. We have previously demonstrated 3D mapping of gamma-ray emitters with free-moving detector systems on a relative intensity scale using a technique called Scene Data Fusion (SDF). Here we characterize the detector response of a multi-element gamma-ray imaging system using experimentally benchmarked Monte Carlo simulations and perform 3D mapping on an absolute intensity scale. We present experimental reconstruction results from hand-carried and airborne measurements with point-like and distributed sources in known configurations, demonstrating quantitative SDF in complex 3D environments.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2017

Choosing a reliability inspection plan for interval censored data

Reliability test plans are important for producing precise and accurate assessment of reliability characteristics. This paper explores different strategies for choosing between possible inspection plans for interval censored data given a fixed testing timeframe and budget. A new general cost structure is proposed for guiding precise quantification of total cost in inspection test plan. Multiple summaries of reliability are considered and compared as the criteria for choosing the best plans using an easily adapted method. Different cost structures and representative true underlying reliability curves demonstrate how to assess different strategies given the logistical constraints and nature of the problem. Results show several general patterns exist across a wide variety of scenarios. Given the fixed total cost, plans that inspect more units with less frequency based on equally spaced time points are favored due to the ease of implementation and consistent good performance across a large number of case study scenarios. Plans with inspection times chosen based on equally spaced probabilities offer improved reliability estimates for the shape of the distribution, mean lifetime, and failure time for a small fraction of population only for applications with high infant mortality rates. The paper uses a Monte Carlo simulation based approach in addition to the common evaluation based on the asymptotic variance and offers comparison and recommendation for different applications with different objectives. Additionally, the paper outlines a variety of different reliability metrics to use as criteria for optimization, presents a general method for evaluating different alternatives, as well as provides case study results for different common scenarios.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Seasonal representation of extreme precipitation indices over the United States in CMIP6 present-day simulations

Realistically representing the present-day characteristics of extreme precipitation has been a challenge for global climate models, which is due in part to deficiencies in model resolution and physics, but is also due to a lack of consistency in gridded observations. In this study, we use three observation datasets, including gridded rain gauge and satellite data, to assess historical simulations from sixteen Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. We separately evaluate summer and winter precipitation over the United States (US) with a comprehensive set of extreme precipitation indices, including an assessment of precipitation frequency, intensity and spatial structure. The observations exhibit significant differences in their estimates of area-average intensity distributions and spatial patterns of the mean and extremes of precipitation over the US. In general, the CMIP6 multi-model mean performs better than most individual models at capturing daily precipitation distributions and extreme precipitation indices, particularly in comparison to gauge-based data. Also, the representation of the extreme precipitation indices by the CMIP6 models is better in the summer than winter. Although the ‘standard’ horizontal-resolution can vary significantly across CMIP6 models, from ~0.7° to ~2.8°, we find that resolution is not a good indicator of model performance. Overall, our results highlight common biases in CMIP6 models and demonstrate that no single model is consistently the most reliable across all indices.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Primordial non-Gaussianity from the completed SDSS-IV extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey – I: Catalogue preparation and systematic mitigation

ABSTRACT We investigate the large-scale clustering of the final spectroscopic sample of quasars from the recently completed extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (eBOSS). The sample contains 343 708 objects in the redshift range 0.8 < z < 2.2 and 72 667 objects with redshifts 2.2 < z < 3.5, covering an effective area of $4699\, {\rm deg}^{2}$. We develop a neural network-based approach to mitigate spurious fluctuations in the density field caused by spatial variations in the quality of the imaging data used to select targets for follow-up spectroscopy. Simulations are used with the same angular and radial distributions as the real data to estimate covariance matrices, perform error analyses, and assess residual systematic uncertainties. We measure the mean density contrast and cross-correlations of the eBOSS quasars against maps of potential sources of imaging systematics to address algorithm effectiveness, finding that the neural network-based approach outperforms standard linear regression. Stellar density is one of the most important sources of spurious fluctuations, and a new template constructed using data from the Gaia spacecraft provides the best match to the observed quasar clustering. The end-product from this work is a new value-added quasar catalogue with the improved weights to correct for non-linear imaging systematic effects, which will be made public. Our quasar catalogue is used to measure the local-type primordial non-Gaussianity in a companion paper.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Characterizing the magnetic fields of nearby molecular clouds using submillimeter polarization observations

Of all the factors that influence star formation, magnetic fields are perhaps the least well understood. The goal of this paper is to characterize the 3D magnetic field properties of nearby molecular clouds through various methods of statistically analysing maps of polarized dust emission. Our study focuses on nine clouds, with data taken from the Planck Sky Survey as well as data from the Balloon-borne Large Aperture Submillimeter Telescope for Polarimetry observations of Vela C. We compare the distributions of polarization fraction (p), dispersion in polarization angles ($\mathcal {S}$), and hydrogen column density (N H ) for each of our targeted clouds. To broaden the scope of our analysis, we compare the distributions of our clouds’ polarization observables with measurements from synthetic polarization maps generated from numerical simulations. We also use the distribution of polarization fraction measurements to estimate the inclination angle of each cloud’s cloud-scale magnetic field. We obtain a range of inclination angles associated with our clouds, varying from 16° to 69°. We establish inverse correlations between p and both $\mathcal {S}$ and NH in almost every cloud, but we are unable to establish a statistically robust $\mathcal {S}$ versus NH trend. By comparing the results of these different statistical analysis techniques, we are able to propose a more comprehensive view of each cloud’s 3D magnetic field properties. These detailed cloud analyses will be useful in the continued studies of cloud-scale magnetic fields and the ways in which they affect star formation within these molecular clouds.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Fate of supernova progenitors in massive binary systems

ABSTRACT How massive stars end their lives depends on the core mass, core angular momentum, and hydrogen envelopes at death. However, these key physical facets of stellar evolution can be severely affected by binary interactions. In turn, the effectiveness of binary interactions itself varies greatly depending on the initial conditions of the binaries, making the situation much more complex. We investigate systematically how binary interactions influence core–collapse progenitors and their fates. Binary evolution simulations are performed to survey the parameter space of supernova progenitors in solar metallicity binary systems and to delineate major evolutionary paths. We first study fixed binary mass ratios ($q=M_2/M_1$ = 0.5, 0.7, and 0.9) to elucidate the impacts of initial mass and initial separation on the outcomes, treating separately Type Ibc supernova, Type II supernova, accretion-induced collapse (AIC), rapidly rotating supernova (Ibc-R), black hole formation, and long gamma ray burst (long GRB). We then conduct 12 binary population synthesis model calculations, varying the initial condition distributions and binary evolution parameters, to estimate various supernova fractions. We obtain a Milky Way supernova rate $R_{\rm SN} = (1.78$–$2.47) \times 10^{-2} \, {\rm yr}^{-1}$ which is consistent with observations. We find the rates of AIC, Ibc-R, and long GRB to be $\sim 1/100$ the rate of regular supernovae. Our estimated long GRB rates are higher than the observed long GRB rate and close to the low luminosity GRB rate, although care must be taken considering our models are computed with solar metallicity. Furthering binary modelling and improving the inputs one by one will enable more detailed studies of these and other transients associated with massive stars.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗