Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Dynamic State Estimation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 847 records · Page 47
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Stable Solid Molecular Hydrogen above 900 K from a Machine-Learned Potential Trained with Diffusion Quantum Monte Carlo

Here, we survey the phase diagram of high-pressure molecular hydrogen with path integral molecular dynamics using a machine-learned interatomic potential trained with quantum Monte Carlo forces and energies. Besides the HCP and C2/c–24 phases, we find two new stable phases both with molecular centers in the Fmmm–4 structure, separated by a molecular orientation transition with temperature. The high temperature isotropic Fmmm–4 phase has a reentrant melting line with a maximum at higher temperature (1450 K at 150 GPa) than previously estimated and crosses the liquid-liquid transition line around 1200 K and 200 GPa.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bi-Level Linear Programming Model for Automatic Load Shedding: A Distributed Wide-Area Measurement System-based Solution

Load shedding is currently implemented as a two-step based approach. In the first step, manual load shedding is taken place, were system operators, using estimates, inform distribution utilities of predicted stressful conditions. Information provided include the potential use of energy reserves, as well as load shedding amount. In a second step, automatic load shedding is done. The latter is realized using protection relays. While considering frequency variation, pre-defined values of load to be shed and correspondent number of stages for such to be realized are transformed into relay settings. Under-frequency protection relays use only local measurements towards decision making, thus operate in a decentralized architecture. Decision making is done in milliseconds plus breaker time. While this approach has provided much system reliability, considering the new smart grid paradigm, where system dynamics are much faster due to increasing renewable resources penetration, in some operating conditions it will generate sub-optimal solutions, such as islanding. Phasor measurement units provide a source of information which can be useful for this problem. Centralized architecture-based solutions for automatic load shedding, as present in the state-of-the-art, require though total processing times which are not acceptable for real-life implementation. In this work, considering the above, a bi-level linear programming model is presented. The model is implemented considering a distributed architecture while leveraging phasor measurement units data. The upper-level model estimates the current system state. Results of this model are embedded in a lower-level model, which decision variables are the location and load value to be shed. Easy-to-implement model, built-on the classic weighted least squares solution, highlight potential aspects towards real-life applications.

Bretas, Arturo Suman↗
DOE OSTI2022

Forecasting distributed energy resources adoption for power systems

Failing to incorporate accurate distributed energy resource penetration forecasts into long-term resource and transmission planning can lead to cost inefficiencies at best and system failures at worst. We have developed an open-source tool that employs an advanced Bass specification to calibrate and forecast technology adoption. The advanced specification includes geographic clustering, exogenously estimated market size, and dynamic time steps. Training on historical adoption of rooftop photovoltaics at the U.S. county-level and using detailed techno-economic estimates, our model achieves a two-year average mean-absolute-percentage-error of 19% in predicting system counts at the county-level, weighted by population. Model error was negatively correlated with market maturity - the error was 12% for counties in states with at least 28 W-per-capita of installed capacity. The advanced specification significantly reduces unweighted forecasting percent error compared to a conventional Bass specification: from 196% to 25% for capacity and from 226% to 22% for system count.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Optical interferometry of high-energy nanosecond pin-to-pin discharges in atmospheric air

This paper describes the construction and application of an optical-frequency Michelson interferometer for measuring electron number density within high-energy, high-power nanosecond pin-to-pin discharges (>10 mJ pulse energy, >1 MW pulse power). A 21 mJ, 11 ns spark across a 3 mm pin-to-pin electrode gap was analyzed at 7 ns into the discharge to demonstrate the operation of the interferometer. A peak electron density of 2.3 × 10 17 cm −3 was observed at these conditions, and it was consistent with estimates of plasma channel resistance based on V–I measurements. This initial work paves the way for a larger parametric study of the spatial and temporal dynamics of electron number density in nanosecond pin-do-pin discharges under various conditions.

electron number density↗
DOE OSTI2019

Estimated Fluid Force and Damping Characteristics of a Thin Film Damper Comparison Between Closed-Form Solutions and Numerical Analysis

Analytical solutions of thin film dampers are useful for determining critical speeds and stability of rotor systems. Most thin film dampers in use are of short axial length, and closed-form solutions to the Reynolds equations exist for estimating pressure, forces, and damping for these types of dampers. This article compares the fluid film forces and damping estimated by the short film bearing model form of the Reynolds equations to the calculated forces and damping of a transient computational fluid dynamic simulation. For this comparison, the fluid was assumed to be incompressible, laminar, and isoviscous. The fluid film forces and damping are calculated from integrating the pressure distribution over the surface of the damper due to small amplitude motions about a steady state static off-center circular orbit. In this case, no cavitation is assumed, and the journal has no angular velocity, so direct stiffness cannot be calculated from the closed-form solution. Radial clearance, journal length, and journal eccentricity have a significant effect on fluid force and damping within a thin film damper. Fluid density does not affect fluid force or damping substantially, while fluid viscosity does. Both the closed-form solutions and computational fluid dynamics simulation compare well with each other and reflect these trends.

Cook, Jason↗
DOE OSTI2019

An Empirical Assessment of the MODIS Land Cover Dynamics and TIMESAT Land Surface Phenology Algorithms

Observations of vegetation phenology at regional-to-global scales provide important information regarding seasonal variation in the fluxes of energy, carbon, and water between the biosphere and the atmosphere. Numerous algorithms have been developed to estimate phenological transition dates using time series of remotely sensed spectral vegetation indices. A key challenge, however, is that different algorithms provide inconsistent results. This study provides a comprehensive comparison of start of season (SOS) and end of season (EOS) phenological transition dates estimated from 500 m MODIS data based on two widely used sources of such data: the TIMESAT program and the MODIS Global Land Cover Dynamics (MLCD) product. Specifically, we evaluate the impact of land cover class, criteria used to identify SOS and EOS, and fitting algorithm (local versus global) on the transition dates estimated from time series of MODIS enhanced vegetation index (EVI). Satellite-derived transition dates from each source are compared against each other and against SOS and EOS dates estimated from PhenoCams distributed across the Northeastern United States and Canada. Our results show that TIMESAT and MLCD SOS transition dates are generally highly correlated (r = 0.51-0.97), except in Central Canada where correlation coefficients are as low as 0.25. Relative to SOS, EOS comparison shows lower agreement and higher magnitude of deviations. SOS and EOS dates are impacted by noise arising from snow and cloud contamination, and there is low agreement among results from TIMESAT, the MLCD product, and PhenoCams in vegetation types with low seasonal EVI amplitude or with irregular EVI time series. In deciduous forests, SOS dates from the MLCD product and TIMESAT agree closely with SOS dates from PhenoCams, with correlations as high as 0.76. Overall, our results suggest that TIMESAT is well-suited for local-to-regional scale studies because of its ability to tune algorithm parameters, which makes it more flexible than the MLCD product. At large spatial scales, where local tuning is not feasible, the MLCD product provides a readily available data set based on a globally consistent approach that provides SOS and EOS dates that are comparable to results from TIMESAT.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
NASA NTRS1986

An X-ray heated wind in NGC 1068

Recent work published by Antonucci and Miller in 1985 has demonstrated the existence of a type 1 Seyfert nucleus inside the archetypical type 2 Seyfert galaxy NGC 1068. This nucleus is surrounded by an obscuring torus and is visible only by reflection from a warm electron scattering region on the torus's axis. Here it is shown that the warm region must be in a dynamic state and out of radiative equilibrium with the nuclear continuum. It is suggested that the source of this moving gas is the cold obscuring torus itself, and that the warm region is part of a wind driven by heating due to the central continuum. The obscuring torus may be an inner extension of the starburst region already known in NGC 1068. This model gives estimates of the temperature and optical depth of the electron scattering region consistent with the observed values. Variations in viewing angle and optical thickness in the torus may account for the range of observed properties in active galactic nuclei.

Krolik, J. H.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Coaxial plasma thrusters for high specific impulse propulsion

A fundamental basis for coaxial plasma thruster performance is presented and the steady-state, ideal MHD properties of a coaxial thruster using an annular magnetic nozzle are discussed. Formulas for power usage, thrust, mass flow rate, and specific impulse are acquired and employed to assess thruster performance. The performance estimates are compared with the observed properties of an unoptimized coaxial plasma gun. These comparisons support the hypothesis that ideal MHD has an important role in coaxial plasma thruster dynamics.

Schoenberg, Kurt F.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Tensile Yielding of Multi-Wall Carbon Nanotube

The tensile yielding of multiwall carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs) has been studied using Molecular Dynamics simulations and a Transition State Theory based model. We find a strong dependence of the yielding on the strain rate. A critical strain rate has been predicted above/below which yielding strain of a MWCNT is larger/smaller than that of the corresponding single-wall carbon nanotubes. At experimentally feasible strain rate of 1% /hour and T = 300K, the yield strain of a MWCNT is estimated to be about 3-4 % higher than that of an equivalent SWCNT (Single Wall Carbon Nanotube), in good agreement with recent experimental observations.

Wei, Chenyu↗
NASA NTRS2006

Adjoint-Based Algorithms for Adaptation and Design Optimizations on Unstructured Grids

Schemes based on discrete adjoint algorithms present several exciting opportunities for significantly advancing the current state of the art in computational fluid dynamics. Such methods provide an extremely efficient means for obtaining discretely consistent sensitivity information for hundreds of design variables, opening the door to rigorous, automated design optimization of complex aerospace configuration using the Navier-Stokes equation. Moreover, the discrete adjoint formulation provides a mathematically rigorous foundation for mesh adaptation and systematic reduction of spatial discretization error. Error estimates are also an inherent by-product of an adjoint-based approach, valuable information that is virtually non-existent in today's large-scale CFD simulations. An overview of the adjoint-based algorithm work at NASA Langley Research Center is presented, with examples demonstrating the potential impact on complex computational problems related to design optimization as well as mesh adaptation.

Nielsen, Eric J.↗
DOE OSTI2023

California's harvested wood products: A time-dependent assessment of life cycle greenhouse gas emissions

Following life-cycle assessment (LCA) methodology, this study presents a state-level estimation of embodied carbon of wood products harvested in 2019 from California and subsequently processed, manufactured, transported, used, and disposed at the end-of-life (EoL). In a conventional static approach to LCA, all GHG emissions were aggregated and considered to occur at year 0 of the given time horizon (500 years in this study) and used a static characterization factor (CF). In dynamic LCA, GHG emissions occurring in different years were considered, and their global warming impact (GWI) was determined using a time-dependent CF over the selected time horizon of 500 years. Four scenarios were developed to examine the impact of EoL choices on GWI. It was found that dynamic GWI for all scenarios ranged from 0.27 to 0.93 million tonne CO₂e, which were 45–73 % lower than those estimated with static LCA approach, indicating that the static LCA approach could lead to an underestimation of the benefits of substituting wood for non-wood products, compared to those based on dynamic LCA approach. This analysis also demonstrated that the choice of EoL treatment option is a key factor affecting the estimated GWI as it directly determines the annual emission of GHGs released into atmosphere and subsequently their warming effect depending on the time harvested wood products (HWPs) spend in the horizon of assessment. Altogether, the dynamic LCA performed in this study enabled more robust interpretations of embodied carbon by including temporal boundaries associated with the HWPs life cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Online PMU Missing Value Replacement Via Event-Participation Decomposition

We introduce a new method for online Phasor Measurement Unit (PMU) missing value replacement. Our approach allows us to decompose PMU event responses into a non-dynamic component (denoted the participation factor) that can be inferred directly from the past and a dynamic component that can be inferred directly from all other PMUs (denoted the event strength). When missing values occur, we can use these two components, which do not rely on the missing index, to estimate the correct value. The method is extremely fast and can easily be used for online applications. Furthermore, extensive testing on real power system event data reveals that our approach achieves state-of-the-art performance in terms of Mean Absolute Percent Errors (MAPEs) for PMU data dropped during event periods. Here, the method also yields an interpretable and simplified view of events for further analysis and applications. The method relies only on PMU data and does not take outside information such as network topology.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS2021

A model-independent data assimilation (MIDA) module and its applications in ecology

Models are an important tool to predict Earth system dynamics. An accurate prediction of future states of ecosystems depends on not only model structures but also parameterizations. Model parameters can be constrained by data assimilation. However, applications of data assimilation to ecology are restricted by highly technical requirements such as model-dependent coding. To alleviate this technical burden, we developed a model-independent data assimilation (MIDA) module. MIDA works in three steps including data preparation, execution of data assimilation, and visualization. The first step prepares prior ranges of parameter values, a defined number of iterations, and directory paths to access files of observations and models. The execution step calibrates parameter values to best fit the observations and estimates the parameter posterior distributions. The final step automatically visualizes the calibration performance and posterior distributions. MIDA is model independent, and modelers can use MIDA for an accurate and efficient data assimilation in a simple and interactive way without modification of their original models. We applied MIDA to four types of ecological models: the data assimilation linked ecosystem carbon (DALEC) model, a surrogate-based energy exascale earth system model: the land component (ELM), nine phenological models and a stand-alone biome ecological strategy simulator (BiomeE). The applications indicate that MIDA can effectively solve data assimilation problems for different ecological models. Additionally, the easy implementation and model-independent feature of MIDA breaks the technical barrier of applications of data–model fusion in ecology. MIDA facilitates the assimilation of various observations into models for uncertainty reduction in ecological modeling and forecasting.

Earth system dynamics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Stormwater Storage and Retention Within an Urban Prairie Wetland Complex

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and severity of flooding in the Great Lakes region. In many cities, flood-control infrastructure is insufficient to protect against future climate conditions. Consequently, there is increasing focus on stormwater storage provided by urban greenspace, such as wetlands and prairies, but the ecohydrological behavior of these ecosystems is not well understood when they are embedded within cities. To improve understanding of hydrological connectivity between urban areas and natural greenspaces, we deployed a sensor network in Gensburg Markham Prairie (GMP), a large intact prairie-wetland complex in south suburban Chicago. We used the resulting high-frequency time-series data to assess surface-subsurface hydrologic dynamics between upland and low-lying wetland areas, interactions between the prairie and surrounding environment, and stormwater storage provided by the prairie. Rapid infiltration within the prairie during and after storm events provides subsurface flow that stores considerable water, flattens storm hydrographs, and increases the wetland hydroperiod. Much of the stormwater input to GMP derives from the surrounding cityscape. Consequently, storage within the prairie-wetland system reduces and slows stormwater discharge to downstream urban communities. For a typical 5-year 24-hr storm with 10.9 cm of rain, GMP stores 77,100 m 3 , 64% greater than the estimated direct rainfall volume onto the prairie, yielding 30,000 m 3 of offsite stormwater storage. This improved understanding of ecohydrological dynamics in urban prairies and wetlands informs the design and implementation of green infrastructure to meet growing needs for stormwater management.

Rivera, Vivien Anne [Northwestern University, Evan↗
DOE OSTI2025

Comparison of greenhouse gas emission estimates from six hydropower reservoirs using modeling versus field surveys

As with most aquatic ecosystems, reservoirs play an important role in the global carbon (C) cycle and emit greenhouse gases (GHG) as carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ). However, GHG emissions from reservoirs are poorly quantified, especially in temperate systems, resulting in high uncertainty. We compared reservoir C emission estimates and uncertainty of diffusive, ebullitive, and degassing pathways in six hydropower reservoirs in the southeastern United States among four data sources: two field-based surveys and two models (including the GHG Reservoir “G-res” Tool). We found that CH 4 diffusion was most similar across data sources (modeled minus observed, bias = - 21 g CO 2-eq m -2 y -1 ) and had low relative uncertainty (coefficient of variation, CV = 0.98). On the other hand, CO 2 diffusion was least consistent across data sources (bias = - 518 g CO 2-eq m -2 y -1 ). Both field surveys indicated strong negative CO 2 diffusion (i.e., CO 2 uptake) at all reservoirs, while G-res estimated positive CO 2 diffusion. By extension, total C emissions showed similar discrepancies, leading to high uncertainty in upscaling and interpreting reservoir source-sink dynamics. Finally, CH 4 ebullition had the highest relative uncertainty (CV = 2.77) due to high variability across sites. We discuss limitations of field surveys and these models, including temperature-based annualization methods, varying definitions of ebullition zones, low sampling resolution, and lack of dynamism. Future field efforts focused on capturing variability in CO 2 diffusion and CH 4 ebullition will be especially valuable in reducing uncertainty and improving models to advance our understanding reservoir GHG emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2013

Computational Fluid Dynamics Uncertainty Analysis Applied to Heat Transfer over a Flat Plate

There have been few discussions on using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) without experimental validation. Pairing experimental data, uncertainty analysis, and analytical predictions provides a comprehensive approach to verification and is the current state of the art. With pressed budgets, collecting experimental data is rare or non-existent. This paper investigates and proposes a method to perform CFD uncertainty analysis only from computational data. The method uses current CFD uncertainty techniques coupled with the Student-T distribution to predict the heat transfer coefficient over a at plate. The inputs to the CFD model are varied from a specified tolerance or bias error and the difference in the results are used to estimate the uncertainty. The variation in each input is ranked from least to greatest to determine the order of importance. The results are compared to heat transfer correlations and conclusions drawn about the feasibility of using CFD without experimental data. The results provide a tactic to analytically estimate the uncertainty in a CFD model when experimental data is unavailable

Computational↗
DOE OSTI2024

Continuous-variable quantum computation of the O(3) model in 1+1 dimensions

We formulate the $O(3)$ non-linear sigma model in $1+1$ dimensions as a limit of a three-component scalar field theory restricted to the unit sphere in the large squeezing limit. This allows us to describe the model in terms of the continuous variable (CV) approach to quantum computing. Here we construct the ground state and excited states using the coupled cluster ansatz and find excellent agreement with the exact diagonalization results for a small number of lattice sites. We then present the simulation protocol for the time evolution of the model using CV gates, estimate the discretization error, and present numerical results obtained from a photonic quantum simulator. We expect that the methods developed in this work will be useful for exploring interesting dynamics for a wide class of sigma models and gauge theories, as well as for simulating scattering events on quantum hardware in the coming decade.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic measures for biological adaptation and resilience

This paper introduces an approach to quantifying ecological resilience in biological systems, particularly focusing on noisy systems responding to episodic disturbances with sudden adaptations. Incorporating concepts from nonequilibrium statistical mechanics, we propose a measure termed “ecological resilience through adaptation,” specifically tailored to noisy, forced systems that undergo physiological adaptation in the face of stressful environmental changes. Randomness plays a key role, accounting for model uncertainty and the inherent variability in the dynamical response among components of biological systems. Our measure of resilience is rooted in the probabilistic description of states within these systems and is defined in terms of the dynamics of the ensemble average of a model-specific observable quantifying success or well-being. Our approach utilizes stochastic linear response theory to compute how the expected success of a system, originally in statistical equilibrium, dynamically changes in response to a environmental perturbation and a subsequent adaptation. Importantly, the resulting mathematical derivations allow for the estimation of resilience in terms of ensemble averages of simulated or experimental data. Finally, through a simple but clear conceptual example, we illustrate how our resilience measure can be interpreted and compared to other existing frameworks in the literature. The methodology is general but inspired by applications in plant systems, with the potential for broader application to complex biological processes.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗