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Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 2000–2300 and beyond: model sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using MPAS-Albany Land Ice

We present a description of the Antarctic Ice Sheet model configuration submitted to the ISMIP6-Antarctica-2300 experiment using the MPAS-Albany Land Ice model, along with three new sets of simulations: (1) a set of extended simulations to 2500 for three forced experiments and to 2775 for the control experiment; (2) a sensitivity analysis of our model configuration to parameters controlling basal sliding and sub-shelf melt, and to model structural choices including the choice of the energy and stress balances; and (3) a 72-member ensemble run on graphics processing units (GPUs) and analysis of variance to determine the primary sources of uncertainty in our ice-sheet model projections. Our extended simulations predict rapid retreat beginning after 2300 for SSP1-2.6 forcing and after 2500 for present-day (control) forcing, primarily in the Amundsen Sea Embayment. We find that varying the sub-shelf melt parameter between the 5th to 95th percentile values for a mean-Antarctic calibration target results in an up to ∼ ± 40 % change in sea-level contribution relative to our baseline simulations that used the median value. Using a linear basal sliding law reduces sea-level contribution by 51 %–73 % relative to our baseline nonlinear sliding law with an exponent of 1/5. When using basal sliding law exponents of 1/3 and 1/10, the overall difference from our baseline simulations at 2300 is on the order of 10 %. The Amundsen Sea Embayment region displays a strongly non-linear dependence of mass loss on the sliding law exponent, with no discernible relationship between the sliding law exponent and the mass loss by 2300, while the sectors feeding the Ross and Filchner-Ronne ice shelves exhibit more mass loss with a more-plastic sliding law. Our model fidelity sensitivity experiments reveal a 9 %–31 % increase in sea-level contribution when using a depth-integrated stress balance approximation relative to our three-dimensional solver, while using a fixed-in-time temperature field increases sea-level contribution by 14 %–88 % relative to two thermomechanically coupled configurations. Our 72-member ensemble and analysis of variance show that the uncertainty in long-term projections is dominated by the choice of Earth system model forcing and the presence or absence of hydrofracture forcing, rather than uncertainty in sliding and sub-shelf melt parameters.

58 GEOSCIENCES

Nuclear Safety [Vol. 34, No. 1, January-March 1993]

Nuclear Safety is a review journal that covers significant developments in the field of nuclear safety. Its scope includes the analysis and control of hazards associated with nuclear energy, operations involving fissionable materials, and the products of nuclear fission and their effects on the environment. Primary emphasis is on safety in reactor design, construction, and operation; however, the safety aspects of the entire fuel cycle, including fuel fabrication, spent-fuel processing, nuclear waste disposal, handling of radioisotopes, and environmental effects of these operations, are also treated. Table of Contents for this issue follows. GENERAL SAFETY CONSIDERATIONS: 1 An Integrated Regional Approach To Risk Management of Industrial Systems, S. Chakraborty and R. Stratton; 9 Annual Technical Meeting of the NRC Cooperative Severe Accident Research Program, E. G. Silver; ACCIDENT ANALYSIS: 13 Deterministic Severe Accident Criteria as Severe Accident Design Criteria and Policy for the New Production Reactor-Heavy Water Reactor, P. T. Rhoads; 20 Proposed Deterministic Severe Accident Criteria for the Heavy Water Reactor-New Production Reactor Containment, K. D. Bergeron, S. E. Slezak, and C. E. Leach; 33 Quasi-Static Core Liquid Level Depression and Long-Term Core Uncovery During a PWR LOCA, Y. Kukita, R. R. Schultz, H. Nakamura, and J. Katayama; 49 LIRA: An Advanced Containment System to Minimize the Accidental Radioactivity Releases, A. Turricchia; 63 Errata to “A Review of Hydrogen Production During Melt/Water Interaction in LWRs,” Vol. 33, No. 4; CONTROL AND INSTRUMENTATION: 64 The Nuplex 80+™ Advanced Control Complex from ABB Combustion Engineering, F. Ridolfo, D. Harmon, and K. Scarola; DESIGN FEATURES: 76 A Scheme for Passive Isolation of the Containment of a Reactor, A. K. Ghosh, V. V. Raj, and K. Kakodkar; 84 Utility Requirements for Safety in the Passive Advanced Light-Water Reactor, T. U. Marston, W. H. Layman, and G. Bockhold, Jr.; WASTE AND SPENT FUEL MANAGEMENT: 91 Activities Related to Waste and Spent Fuel Management, Compiled by M. D. Muhlheim and E. G. Silver; OPERATING EXPERIENCES: 103 Testing Deficiencies in Auxiliary Systems Feedwater Systems, J. D. Kueck; 110 Reactor Shutdown Experience, Compiled by J. W. Cletcher; 113 Selected Safety-Related Events, Compiled by G. A. Murphy; 115 Operating U.S. Power Reactors, Compiled by M. D. Muhlheim and E. G. Silver; RECENT DEVELOPMENTS: 133 General Administrative Activities, Compiled by M. D. Muhlheim and E. G. Silver; 145 Reports, Standards, and Safety Guides, D. S. Queener; 150 Proposed Rule Changes as of Sept. 30, 1992; ANNOUNCEMENTS: 75 Harvard Short Course on Risk: Science, Assessment, and Management; 102 International Conference on Reactor Physics and Reactor Computations; 102 The Fourth International Conference on Nuclear Waste Reprocessing and Waste Management [RECOD ’94]; 132 International Symposium on the Radiological Exposure of the Population of the European Community from Radioactivity in the Mediterranean Sea [MARINA-MED]; 162 International High-Level Radioactive Waste Conference ‘Technology Integration—Above and Below”; 154 The Authors; 158 Indexes to Nuclear Safety, Volume 33.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS

Observation of deuteron and antideuteron formation from resonance-decay nucleons

High-energy hadronic collisions generate environments characterized by temperatures above 100 MeV (refs.), about 100,000 times hotter than the centre of the Sun. At present, it is therefore unclear how light (anti)nuclei with mass number A of a few units, such as the deuteron, 3 He or 4 He, each bound by only a few MeV, can emerge from these collisions. Here, the ALICE Collaboration reports that deuteron–pion momentum correlations in proton–proton (pp) collisions provide model-independent evidence that about 90% of the observed (anti)deuterons are produced in nuclear reactions following the decay of short-lived resonances, such as the Δ(1232). These findings, obtained by the ALICE Collaboration at the Large Hadron Collider, resolve a gap in our understanding of nucleosynthesis in ultrarelativistic hadronic collisions. Apart from offering insights on how (anti)nuclei are formed in hadronic collisions, the results can be used in the modelling of the production of light and heavy nuclei in cosmic rays and dark-matter decays.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS

Electron temperature relations and the direct N, O, Ne, S, and Ar abundances of 49 959 star-forming galaxies in DESI data release 2

We present the largest direct-method abundance catalogue of galaxies to date, containing measurements of 49 959 star-forming galaxies at z<0.96 from DESI (Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument) data release 2. By directly measuring electron temperatures across multiple ionization zones, we provide constraints on a number of electron temperature relations. Using the temperature measurements, we derive reliable abundances for N, O, Ne, S, and Ar, and measure the evolution of abundances and abundance ratios of as a function of metallicity and other galaxy properties. Our measurements include direct oxygen abundances for 49 507 galaxies, leading to the discovery of the two most metal-poor galaxies in the nearby Universe, with oxygen abundances of 12+log⁡(O/H)=6.77−0.03+0.03 dex (1.2 per cent Z⊙⁠) and 12+log⁡(O/H)=6.81−0.04+0.04 dex (1.3 per cent Z⊙⁠). We identify a rare outlier population of 24 galaxies with high-N/O ratios at low metallicity, reminiscent of galaxy abundances observed in the early Universe. We find the Ne/O ratio is constant at low metallicity but increases gradually at 12+log(O/H)>8.105±0.004 dex. We show that the S/O and Ar/O abundance ratios are strongly correlated, consistent with the expected additional Type Ia enrichment channel for S and Ar. In this work, we present an initial survey of the key properties of the sample, with this data set serving as a foundation for extensive future work on galaxy abundances at low redshift.

Scholte, D. [Edinburgh U., Inst. Astron.] (ORCID:0

Influence of Powder Characteristics and Processing Methods on Creep Performance of Powder Metallurgy Hot Isostatic Pressed SS316

The U.S. nuclear energy expansion goals are driving the demand for manufacturing routes that can rapidly produce large, complex, near net shape components. Powder metallurgy hot isostatic pressing (PM HIP) is an advanced manufacturing technique that can be economically scaled-up, while alleviating the supply chain challenges that forging and casting face in terms of cost and lead time constraints. This makes PM-HIP a viable technology to aid and accelerate large-scale part manufacturing for nuclear applications. However, large-scale qualification and deployment of this technology require a thorough understanding of the influence of powder feedstock quality, powder handling history, hot isostatic pressing (HIP) parameters, and subsequent heat treatment on microstructural evolution and elevated temperature mechanical performance. The present work focusses on 316 austenitic stainless steel (SS316) which is most commonly used in high temperature environments for nuclear applications Results from this study show that PM HIPed SS316 meets ASME tensile requirements at room temperature and at elevated temperature. However, creep performance of PM-HIPed SS316 remains inferior to its wrought counterpart, demonstrating that tensile performance alone is not a reliable metric for long duration high temperature integrity. Further, this report delineates powder derived microstructural features that govern creep damage, with key evidences pointing to “microstructural inheritance” from gas atomized powder feedstocks. Commercial SS316 powders of varying chemical compositions and recycling histories were studies, and the results showed large differences in elemental segregation, oxide surface layers and secondary phase distributions. Multi-scale characterization revealed segregation of chromium, molybdenum, manganese and silicon at the boundaries and the precipitation of manganese-, silicon-, and molybdenum-oxides. During HIP consolidation, these surface oxides transform into decorated prior particle boundaries (PPBs) and grain boundary inclusions that persist through conventional post-HIP solution annealing treatment. The retained oxides in post-HIP microstructures were found to influence grain growth, precipitation behavior, and ultimately creep cavitation and fracture. Such post-HIP heat treatments are therefore limited by a complex trade-off between grain growth, and oxide coarsening which aggravate creep damage by acting as nucleation sites for cavities. The objective of this work is to establish an integrated processing–structure–property framework for PM-HIP 316 stainless steel by investigating the influence of powder feedstock characteristics in pre- and post-HIP processing as well as to understand the significance of post-HIP heat treatment on microstructural evolution and creep properties. The results from this report emphasize the significance of powder feedstock integrity in improving creep performance of PM-HIPed SS316, by highlight the effect of rapid solidification, elemental segregation, oxide formation and powder recycling on microstructural defect inheritance following HIP consolidation. Rather than considering HIP processing, solution annealing, and mechanical performance independently, this report treats powder production, HIP consolidation, post-HIP thermal processing, and creep deformation as interconnected stages within a continuous metallurgical process. The resulting framework will provide a scientific basis for developing feedstock engineering strategies capable of improving long-term reliability of PM-HIP stainless steels and accelerating their qualification for advanced nuclear applications.

Ajjarapu, Pavan [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (OR

Assembly bias and local Primordial non-Gaussianity from DESI DR1 quasars

The analysis of the large-scale clustering of quasars (QSO) observed by the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) represents a promising avenue for constraining local Primordial non-Gaussianity (PNG), parameterized by f NL . The signal to be constrained is the scale-dependent bias induced in the 2-point clustering of the considered tracer sample. The resulting constraints on f NL , however, are fully degenerate with the local PNG bias parameter b ϕ , dependent on the assembly bias parameter p. Using IllustrisTNG hydrodynamical simulations, we select a QSO sample reflecting the selection criteria and properties of DESI QSOs, and provide a robust prior for p, and thus for b ϕ , building on the findings of Fondi et al. 2024. We find a distribution with mean p̅ ≃ 1.4 with weak redshift dependence, stable to selection noise and consistent with the expected recent merger history typical of quasar-hosting halos. By comparing with the CAMELS simulations we demonstrate that this prior is robust to astrophysical assumptions and cosmic variance. Finally, applying this prior to the DESI DR1 dataset, we derive updated constraints on local PNG, obtaining f NL = -3.3±9.2.

cosmological parameters from LSS

Single-Nucleon Transfer on Unstable 59 Cu Probes the NiCu Cycle in Astrophysical X-Ray Bursts

Recent models of the rapid proton (𝑟⁢𝑝) capture process indicate that a competition between the 59 Cu⁢(𝑝,𝛾) ⁢60 Zn and 59 Cu⁢(𝑝,𝛼) ⁢56 Ni reactions may result in the formation of a nickel-copper (NiCu) cycle that traps the flux of material between 56 Ni and 60 Zn . Here, in this work, we report the identification of 15 proton-unbound levels in 60 Zn , populated via 59 Cu⁢(𝑑,𝑛) transfer, which govern the rate of the 59 Cu⁢(𝑝,𝛾)⁢ 60 Zn reaction in XRBs. Precise excitation energies for levels in 60 Zn were obtained from observed 𝛾 decays, and spectroscopic factors were determined from angle-integrated cross sections. Incorporating these results into stellar-model calculations, we find that with experimentally constrained uncertainties a NiCu cycle in XRBs is indeed possible, though we limit its branching strength to less than 38%. While modest, such a branching has significant impact on the light curve, motivating further studies of the relevant rates. Our calculations also indicate that a significant NiCu cycle leads to an increase in the amount of odd-𝐴 nuclei in the burst ashes, which may affect Urca cooling processes in neutron star crusts.

direct reactions

Evidence for large baryonic feedback at low and intermediate redshifts from kinematic Sunyaev-Zel’dovich observations with ACT and DESI photometric galaxies

Recent advances in cosmological observations have provided an unprecedented opportunity to investigate the distribution of baryons relative to the underlying matter. In this work, we show that the gas is more extended than the dark matter, and the amount of baryonic feedback at $z \lesssim 1$ disfavors low-feedback models such as that of state-of-the-art hydrodynamical simulation IllustrisTNG compared with high-feedback models such as that of the original Illustris simulation. This has important implications for bridging the gap between theory and observations and understanding galaxy formation and evolution. Furthermore, a better grasp of the baryon-dark matter link is critical to future cosmological analyses, which are currently impeded by our limited knowledge of baryonic feedback. Here, we measure the kinematic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (kSZ) effect from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT), stacked on the luminous red galaxy (LRG) sample of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) imaging survey. This is the first analysis to use photometric redshifts for reconstructing galaxy velocities. Due to the large number of galaxies comprising the DESI imaging survey, this is the highest signal-to-noise stacked kSZ measurement to date: we detect the signal at 13$σ$, finding strong evidence that the gas is more spread out than the dark matter, as well as a preference for larger feedback compared to some commonly used state-of-the-art hydrodynamical simulations. Here, our work opens up the possibility of recalibrating large hydrodynamical simulations using the kSZ effect. In addition, our findings highlight the importance of properly accounting for baryonic feedback with future surveys such as LSST through direct probes such as the kSZ, and shed light on long-standing enigmas in astrophysics, such as the “missing baryon” problem.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS

Water Observations of Flow/No-Flow for the East-Taylor Watershed, Colorado (June-July 2025 and 2026)

This dataset provides multi-year, ground-truth visual observations of surface water flow/no-flow conditions within the East-Taylor Watershed, Colorado, collected during June and July of 2025 and 2026. In June and July 2025, on-the-ground visual observations of flow/no-flow were collected as part of the Watershed Function Scientific Focus Area (SFA) and Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory (RMBL) Colorado Headwaters Ecological Spectroscopy Study (CHESS) campaign (further details are provided within the CHESS Project Description). We obtained 377 water observations of flow/no-flow within the East-Taylor Watershed, Colorado. These ground-truth observations were collected to validate classification maps from remote sensing data and model results within the East-Taylor Watershed. In 2025, flow/no-flow measurements were collected using a field-based app for the CHESS Campaign (Zerion iForm). Within the field app, a water observation form was created to collect coordinates and metadata about the observation. Information collected for the water observation points included information about visually-assessed streamflow presence/absence (standard question obtained from Colorado State University’s StreamTracker project), flow estimate, stream or ponded area width, canopy cover, manganese films, iron seeps, and beaver activity. For 2025 water observations, this dataset contains: (1) a data file with the water observations and coordinates (2025_Water_Observations.csv); (2) a Keyhole Markup Language Zipped (KMZ) with the water observation locations and metadata (2025_Water_Observations_Locations.kmz); (3) photos (.jpg and .jpeg) of the water observation points, organized by location, contained within 2025_Water_Observations_FieldPhotographs.zip file; and (4) water observation protocols and figures (2025_Water_Observation_Protocols.pdf). In June and July 2026, on-the-ground visual observations of flow/no-flow were collected as part of the Watershed Function SFA project. We obtained 365 water observations of flow/no-flow within the East-Taylor Watershed, Colorado. The 2026 observations focused on collecting repeat measurements at the 2025 flow/no-flow observation locations conducted as part of the CHESS campaign. These ground-truth observations were collected to understand differences in flow/no-flow in 2026, given the unprecedented 2026 drought in Colorado. In 2026, flow/no-flow measurements were collected using ArcGIS (Geographic Information System) Survey123. Within the field app, a water observation form was created to collect coordinates and metadata about the observation. Information collected for the water observation points included repeat information from the 2025 water observation effort, including visually-assessed streamflow presence/absence (standard question obtained from Colorado State University’s StreamTracker project), flow estimate, stream or ponded area width, canopy cover, manganese films, iron seeps, beaver activity, and a new metadata component of estimated stream depth (for select locations). For 2026 water observations, this dataset contains: (1) a data file with the water observations and coordinates (2026_Water_Observations.csv); (2) a Keyhole Markup Language Zipped (KMZ) with the water observation locations and metadata (2026_Water_Observations_Locations.kmz); (3) photos (.jpg) of the water observation points, organized by location, contained within 2026_Water_Observations_FieldPhotographs.zip file; and (4) water observation protocols and figures (2026_Water_Observation_Protocols.pdf). For 2025 and 2026 water observations, this dataset contains: (1) a location metadata file (locations.csv); (6) a file-level metadata (flmd.csv) file that lists each file contained in the dataset with associated metadata; and (7) a data dictionary (dd.csv) file that contains column/row headers used throughout the files along with a definition, units, and data type. CHESS Project Description: The Colorado Headwaters Ecological Spectroscopy Study (CHESS) comprised a multi-week airborne remote sensing and field observation campaign in the Upper Gunnison Basin, Colorado, conducted in June and July of 2025. Airborne remote sensing was conducted by the National Ecological Observatory Network Airborne Observation Platform (NEON AOP), concurrent with a field campaign run by the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory (RMBL), the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) and SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory Watershed Function Science Focus Area (SFA), and NASA-JPL (Jet Propulsion Laboratory) Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation (EMIT) program. Between June 10 and July 18, 2025, the NEON AOP flight team collected high-resolution aerial imaging spectroscopy and Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data over three domains: the Upper East River (CRBU), Almont Triangle (ALMO), and the Upper Taylor Basin (UPTA). In coordination with the flights, a field campaign acquired ground-truth observations, including observations of vegetation composition, foliar traits, forest demography, and subsurface properties in 18 core sampling areas within the domains. Additional surface water observations were taken at over 380 point locations. All CHESS campaign datasets can be found within the CHESS ESS-DIVE data portal: https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/chess. This work was supported by the Watershed Function Science Focus Area at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231. 2026-09-02: This dataset was updated to include 2026 water observation measurements. The 2025 observation files were also updated to ensure a consistent file naming convention across water observation years.

2018 NEON and 2025 CHESS Campaigns

Weak Lensing Mass Calibration of the ACT DR5 Galaxy Clusters with the DES Year 3 Weak Lensing Data

We use weak gravitational lensing measurements from Year 3 Dark Energy Survey data to calibrate the masses of 443 galaxy clusters selected via the Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect from Atacama Cosmology Telescope Data Release 5 maps of the cosmic microwave background. We incorporate redshift and SZ measurements for individual clusters into a hierarchical model for the stacked lensing signals and perform Bayesian analyses to constrain the hydrostatic mass bias of the clusters. Our treatment of systematic uncertainties includes a prescription for measuring and accounting for the weak lensing boost factor, consideration of a miscentering effect, as well as marginalization over uncertainties in the source galaxy photometric redshift distributions and shear calibration. The resultant constraints on the normalization of the mass-observable relation have a precision of approximately 7%, with the mean WL halo mass of M $_{500c}$ = 5.4 × 10$^{14}$ M $_{⊙}$. We measure the bias between the true cluster mass and the mass estimated from the SZ signal based on an X-ray-calibrated scaling relation assuming hydrostatic equilibrium, to be 1 - b = 0.74$^{+0.06}$ $_{-0.05}$ over the full sample. When splitting the clusters into high (z = 0.43-0.70) and low (z = 0.15-0.43) redshift bins, we measure 1 - b = 0.58$^{+0.06}$ $_{-0.05}$ and 0.81$^{+0.08}$ $_{-0.06}$, respectively. When introducing additional freedom in redshift and mass to the hydrostatic bias model, we find that 1 - b decreases with redshift (with the power law of -1.8$^{+0.5}$ $_{-0.6}$, 99.95% confidence), consistent with findings from other recent studies, while we do not find any significant trend in mass. We also demonstrate that our result is robust against various systematics such as a scale cut, priors on baryonic and miscentering parameters, and degree of scatter in mass-observable relation. The weak-lensing mass calibration presented in this study will be a useful tool for using the ACT clusters as probes of astrophysics, and as a step towards using their abundance as a cosmological probe.

Shin, T. [Carnegie Mellon U.] (ORCID:0000000263895