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Who will be making wave energy? A community-driven design approach toward just and sustainable energy futures in Alaska

Renewable energy transition, once thought of as a singular, large-scale switch in industrial energy generating technologies from fossil fuels to renewables, have gained a broader set of requirements, including the need for justice and environmental protection. While discourse around policy and process has grown to consider these requirements, the focus of design of new renewable energy projects and technologies remains dominantly fixed on maximizing energy production, and renewables are falling short of meeting the requirements of just energy transitions. Meanwhile, in design studies, participatory and co-design approaches which explicitly consider justice in both process and outcomes have long been theorized and applied. However, applications of these approaches to renewable energy project design are under-theorized. In this paper, we explore the effectiveness of the adoption and adaptation of a co-design approach called Community-Driven Design (CDD) in enabling meaningful participation prior to technological maturity and bringing the attention of designers to a more diverse set of energy futures focused on justice and sustainability. Here, we do so by developing and testing the approach with community members in Sitka, AK, USA. We conclude that the approach has the potential to increase meaningful participation. Furthermore, we conclude that through diverse understandings of energy and the emergence of design narratives that engage with the complexity of vulnerability, accountability, and resilience, CDD led designers to consider justice, sustainability, and a diverse set of possible energy futures both within and beyond Sitka.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Siting bioenergy facilities in the United States: Measuring participation in decisions and distribution of effects

Scientists and stakeholders can inform the process of siting renewable energy facilities in ways that do not perpetuate socioeconomic disparities associated with fossil fuel industries or create new ones. Procedural justice indicators and distributional justice indicators that incorporate environmental, social, and economic objectives can be used to site energy facilities in ways that increase benefits and reduce negative impacts to disadvantaged and underserved populations. A generic list of potential energy justice indicators for siting bioenergy facilities was developed collaboratively between U.S. bioenergy researchers and diverse agriculture, energy, and energy and environmental justice stakeholders and experts. From this list smaller numbers of indicators can be selected or modified with communities for local siting of bioenergy facilities. Groups of indicators can be used to guide biorefinery or biopower siting and permitting decisions, e.g., to compare siting options, to draw early attention to key problems, or to track progress toward justice-related targets.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Methodology for energy strategy to prescreen the feasibility of Ground Source Heat Pump systems in residential and commercial buildings in the United States

Geothermal resources have potential to reduce dependence on fossil fuels. The viability of geothermal heat pumps or ground source heat pumps (GSHPs) is significant as a potential alternative energy source with substantial savings potential. While the prospect of these systems is promising for energy efficiency, careful feasibility analysis is required before implementation. Here, this paper presents the results of evaluation of the application feasibility for GSHPs in buildings across seven climate zones in three United States regions. A comprehensive methodology is developed to measure the integrated feasibility of GSHPs using compiled data for energy use intensity, energy cost and design parameters. Four different feasibility metrics are utilized: ground temperature, outdoor weather condition, energy savings potential, and cost benefits. For each metric, a corresponding feasibility score system is developed. The defined integrated feasibility score classifies the locations into five different feasibility levels ranging from Fair (0–20), Moderate (21–40), Good (41–60), High (61–80), and Very High (81–100). Conclusions show the GSHP feasibility level is High for 3 sites, Good for 8 sites and Moderate for 4 sites. Through the methodology, it is possible to develop a practical energy strategy for more economic and sustainable GSHP systems at an early design stage in the various viewpoints of geometries, climate conditions, operational factors, and energy costs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Technology, technology, technology: An integrated assessment of deep decarbonization pathways for the Canadian oil sands

As a party to the Paris Agreement, Canada has an ambitious climate target of net-zero emissions by 2050. The country also holds the world's third largest oil reserves in the Alberta oil sands. Given increasing emissions from the oil sands sector, achieving Canada's net-zero target requires significant oil sands decarbonization. If, while phasing out fossil fuels, there is still a demand for Canadian oil sands, then the decarbonization of the resource production process becomes crucial. In this study, we use an enhanced version of the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) with a detailed unconventional oil sector for Canada, including mining and in situ resources. We ask, what is the future of the oil sands sector in deeply decarbonized global and Canadian economies? We address this question under four mitigation scenarios with varying global net-zero GHG emissions constraints, three additional representative lower carbon extraction technologies available for the oil sands sector, as well as global direct air capture (DAC) deployment. We find that lower carbon technology deployment allows a 20%–44% increase in oil sands production by 2050 for scenarios with net-zero GHG emissions in 2100 or 2075. DAC helps maintain oil sands production in the most ambitious global decarbonization scenario (net-zero GHG by 2050), without which low international oil demand makes Canadian oil sands production uncompetitive. Canadian oil sands production thus depends highly on the availability of lower carbon extraction technologies and international oil demand, which to a certain extent relies on the availability and global deployment of negative emissions technologies.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗

The path to 2060: Saudi Arabia's long-term pathway for GHG emission reduction

Saudi Arabia, as part of its Saudi Green Initiative, has announced its goal to achieve net zero green-house gas emissions by 2060. This ambitious target underscores the nation's dedication to address-ing climate change. However, there is a significant gap in comprehensive analysis regarding the long-term effects of Saudi Arabia's climate policies and their collective contribution towards the net-zero objective. This study endeavors to bridge this gap through a detailed examination using the GCAM-KSA, a specialized version of the Global Change Analysis Model tailored for Saudi Arabia, employing a multi-sectoral methodology that integrates economic, energy, and land use systems within a coherent framework to assess the impact of climate policies on GHG emissions. Our anal-ysis reveals that reaching net-zero GHG emissions by 2060 is a complex challenge requiring con-certed efforts across all sectors of the economy. While transitioning to low-carbon electricity and improving energy efficiency offer considerable emission reductions, fully decarbonizing the indus-trial and transportation sectors poses a significant hurdle. Our findings suggest that Saudi Arabia must triple its emission reduction commitments in its next Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) update to align with its 2060 net-zero goal. Early action and increased ambition could avoid the chances of getting locked into the high emission assets and give enough time to transform the energy system. Furthermore, the adoption and integration of Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) tech-nologies are identified as crucial for offsetting residual emissions, especially in sectors that might continue to rely on fossil fuels.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Multi-objective Decisions on Integrated Energy Systems Planning and Operation for Industrial Combined Heat and Power Supply

Unlike the power sector—which can transmit electricity over long distances via established grids—the industrial sector poses a unique challenge due to its geographically concentrated large-scale heat processes. Enhancing energy security in such industrial parks provides a dual benefit: reduced exposure to volatile fossil fuel prices and improved economic viability, largely driven by economies of scale in energy supply and distribution. This study presents a comprehensive technoeconomic analysis of a nuclear energy hub, employing a mechanism-focused approach to evaluate uncertainties in operational strategies and capacity optimization. Load profiles from three major energy intesive industries—chemical, refinery, and steelmaking—are examined, each presenting unique challenges and opportunities for nuclear energy integration. We adopt a multi-objective optimization framework, converting multiple objectives into a single objective function through the e-constraint method. The findings highlight clear trade-offs between system conditions and varying levels of energy independence. Overall, this analysis is granular enough to address industry-specific concerns yet sufficiently generalizable to provide actionable insights into the feasibility of nuclear-based clean heat solutions for the industrial sector.

25 - ENERGY STORAGE↗

Contribution of acidic components to the total acid number (TAN) of bio-oil

Bio-oil or pyrolysis oil — a product of thermochemical decomposition of biomass under oxygen-limited conditions — holds great potential to be a substitute for nonrenewable fossil fuels. But, its high acidity, which is primarily due to the degradation of hemicelluloses, limits its applications. For the evaluation of bio-oil production and treatment, it is essential to accurately measure the acidity of bio-oil. The total acid number (TAN), which is defined as the amount of potassium hydroxide needed to titrate one gram of a sample and has been established as an ASTM method to measure the acidity of petroleum products, has been employed to investigate the acidity of bio-oil. The TAN values of different concentrations of bio-oil components such as standard solutions of acetic acid, propionic acid, vanillic acid, hydroxybenzoic acid, syringic acid, hydroxymethylfurfural, and phenol were analyzed according to the ASTM D664 standard method. Our method showed the same linear relationship between the TAN values and the molar concentrations of acetic, propionic, and hydroxybenzoic acids. A different linear relationship was found for vanillic acid, due to the presence of multiple functional groups that can contribute to the TAN value. Furthermore, the influence of the titration solvent on the TAN values has been determined by comparing the TAN values and titration curves obtained from the standard method with results from the TAN analysis in aqueous environment and with equilibrium modeling results. Aqueous bio-oil samples with a known amount of acetic acid added were also analyzed. The additional acetic acid in bio-oil samples caused a proportional increase in the TAN values. These results of this research indicate that the TAN value of a sample with acids acting as monoprotic acids in the titration solvent can be converted to the molar concentration of total acids. For a sample containing acids that act as diprotic and polyprotic acids, however, its TAN value cannot be simply converted to the molar concentration of total acids because these acids have a stronger contribution to the TAN values than the contribution of monoprotic acids.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Machine learning and deep learning for mineralogy interpretation and CO 2 saturation estimation in geological carbon Storage: A case study in the Illinois Basin

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a promising approach to simultaneously maintaining energy security and reducing carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions under the current energy portfolio that is dominated by fossil fuel energy. Pre-injection formation characterization and post-injection CO 2 monitoring are two critical tasks to guarantee storage efficiency in CCS. The CCS projects in the Illinois Basin, the first large-scale CO 2 injection into saline aquifers in the United States, employed conventional and the latest pulsed neutron logging (PNL) tools for mineralogy interpretation and CO 2 saturation estimation, which provide valuable references for future CCS projects. Because of the inherent fuzziness of petrophysical measurements and complex subsurface heterogeneity, interpreting well-logging data is time-consuming, and its accuracy can be user-biased. In recent years, data-driven methods have been widely used to capture the non-linear patterns between input features and interpretation results. This work applied and evaluated four commonly used machine learning (ML) models, including ridge regression (RR), random forest (RF), gradient boosting regression (GBR), support vector regression (SVR), and one deep learning (DL) model, the artificial neural network (ANN). We optimized the hyperparameters of the four ML models and the DL model using the simulated annealing algorithm and the grid search strategy, respectively. The input features of the mineralogy interpretation models were eleven conventional well-logging parameters, and the label data (i.e., ground truth) were the porosity and volumetric fractions of six minerals, including quartz, feldspar, dolomite, calcite, clay, and iron minerals. The results demonstrated that the GBR and RF models were superior in predicting volumetric fractions of minerals and porosity; label data with low coefficient of variation (CV) values tended to yield better performance. For CO 2 saturation estimation, the RF was the best-performing model, followed by SVR, ANN, GBR, and RR. Furthermore, we conducted feature importance ranking using the permutation importance algorithm and found that the formation sigma and well pressure were the most important features in this study. In conclusion, the study of CCS projects in the Illinois Basin bridges the gap between the limited knowledge and understanding of geological carbon storage and the increasing demand for reliable, cost-effective, and sustainable energy solutions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Role of pH and Eh in geothermal systems: Thermodynamic examples and impacts on scaling and corrosion

The global demand for sustainable and clean renewable energy sources is rapidly increasing to meet growing energy demands while curtailing the CO2 emissions from fossil fuels. Harnessing the natural heat or geothermal energy of the Earth's interior can simultaneously address both issues by offering a clean and renewable energy source. Enhanced geothermal systems require the movement and cycling of fluid through a porous rock media. Further, this process requires understanding the chemistry occurring at the fluid-rock and fluid-metal interfaces both in the deep subsurface and surface, where fluid is circulated for energy transfer or storage. In this review paper, we evaluate the current state of research on how two key variables, pH and Eh, control the fluid-rock reactions controlling mineral scaling and the steel corrosion reactions associated with geothermal systems. These variables are frequently used in geochemical modeling to predict chemical reactions in geothermal systems. Prediction of the fluid-rock behavior can be utilized to formulate new strategies for extending the lifespan and efficiency of heat extraction and utilization and maximizing the safety of geothermal systems.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Experimental investigation of flow distribution in enhanced geothermal systems with deep eutectic solvent

Geothermal energy has been recognized as a valuable alternative to fossil fuels and nuclear power, as it is renewable and reliable. Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGSs) have the potential to expand geothermal energy production by enabling access to previously untapped geothermal resources. Geothermal short-circuiting poses a significant challenge to EGS development, leading to reduced heat extraction. Deep Eutectic Solvent (DES) exhibits favorable thermal and rheological properties, making it a candidate for geothermal applications. Here, this paper examines Choline Chloride-Based Deep Eutectic Solvent (DES) as a working fluid in geothermal applications and its potential to mitigate geothermal short-circuiting. Hydraulic experiments using a dual fracture flow loop were conducted at high temperatures. The results showed that DES exhibited higher differential pressure behavior compared to water. Flow distribution results revealed that DES enhances flow allocation within the small fracture, particularly when a temperature difference exists between fractures. Specifically, DES increased flow distribution by an average of 11% when the temperature difference was 85°C, and by 13% when the difference was 45°C, relative to water. These findings suggest that DES responds to thermal fracture differences, making it a potential remedy to address geothermal short-circuiting.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview

This study presents the overview of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and their energy, land use, and emissions implications. The SSPs are part of a new scenario framework, established by the climate change research community in order to facilitate the integrated analysis of future climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation. The pathways were developed over the last years as a joint community effort and describe plausible major global developments that together would lead in the future to different challenges for mitigation and adaptation to climate change. The SSPs are based on five narratives describing alternative socio-economic developments, including sustainable development, regional rivalry, inequality, fossil-fueled development, and middle-of-the-road development. The long-term demographic and economic projections of the SSPs depict a wide uncertainty range consistent with the scenario literature. A multi-model approach was used for the elaboration of the energy, land-use and the emissions trajectories of SSP-based scenarios. The baseline scenarios lead to global energy consumption of 400–1200 EJ in 2100, and feature vastly different land-use dynamics, ranging from a possible reduction in cropland area up to a massive expansion by more than 700 million hectares by 2100. The associated annual CO 2 emissions of the baseline scenarios range from about 25 GtCO 2 to more than 120 GtCO 2 per year by 2100. With respect to mitigation, we find that associated costs strongly depend on three factors: (1) the policy assumptions, (2) the socio-economic narrative, and (3) the stringency of the target. The carbon price for reaching the target of 2.6 W/m 2 that is consistent with a temperature change limit of 2 °C, differs in our analysis thus by about a factor of three across the SSP marker scenarios. Moreover, many models could not reach this target from the SSPs with high mitigation challenges. While the SSPs were designed to represent different mitigation and adaptation challenges, the resulting narratives and quantifications span a wide range of different futures broadly representative of the current literature. This allows their subsequent use and development in new assessments and research projects. Critical next steps for the community scenario process will, among others, involve regional and sectoral extensions, further elaboration of the adaptation and impacts dimension, as well as employing the SSP scenarios with the new generation of earth system models as part of the 6th climate model intercomparison project (CMIP6).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Shared Socio-Economic Pathways of the Energy Sector – Quantifying the Narratives

Energy is crucial for supporting basic human needs, development and well-being. The future evolution of the scale and character of the energy system will be fundamentally shaped by socioeconomic conditions and drivers, available energy resources, technologies of energy supply and transformation, and end-use energy demand. However, because energy-related activities are significant sources of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and other environmental and social externalities, energy system development will also be influenced by social acceptance and strategic policy choices. All of these uncertainties have important implications for many aspects of economic and environmental sustainability, and climate change in particular. In the Shared-Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) framework these uncertainties are structured into five narratives, arranged according to the challenges to climate change mitigation and adaptation. In this study we explore future energy sector developments across the five SSPs using Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), and we also provide summary output and analysis for selected scenarios of global emissions mitigation policies. The mitigation challenge strongly corresponds with global baseline energy sector growth over the 21st century, which varies between 40% and 230% depending on final energy consumer behavior, technological improvements, resource availability and policies. The future baseline CO 2 -emission range is even larger, as the most energy-intensive SSP also incorporates a comparatively high share of carbon-intensive fossil fuels, and vice versa. Inter-regional disparities in the SSPs are consistent with the underlying socioeconomic assumptions; these differences are particularly strong in the SSPs with large adaptation challenges, which have little inter-regional convergence in long-term income and final energy demand levels. The scenarios presented do not include feedbacks of climate change on energy sector development. The energy sector SSPs with and without emissions mitigation policies are introduced and analyzed here in order to contribute to future research in climate sciences, mitigation analysis, and studies on impacts, adaptation and vulnerability.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Time-frequency based cyber security defense of wide-area control system for fast frequency reserve

Global power systems are transiting from conventional fossil fuel energy to renewable energies due to their environmental benefits. The increasing penetration of renewable energies presents challenges for power system operation. The efficiency and sufficiency of responsive reserves have become increasingly important for power systems with a high proportion of renewable energies. The Fast Frequency Reserve (FFR), especially the Wide-area Monitoring System (WAMS)-based FFR, is a promising and effective solution to secure and enhance the stability of power systems. However, cyber security has become a new challenge for the WAMS-based FFR system. Cyber attacks on the FFR control system may threaten the safety of power system operation due to the rapid power controllability requirement of FFR. Therefore, to address this problem, a time-frequency based cyber security defense framework is proposed to detect the cyber spoofing of synchrophasor data in WAMS-based FFR control systems. This paper first introduces the Continuous Wavelet Transforms (CWTs) to decompose spoofing signals. Then, the Dual-frequency Scale Convolutional Neural Networks (DSCNN) is proposed to identify the time-frequency domains matrix from two frequency scales. Integrating CWTs and DSCNN, an identification framework called CWTs-DSCNN is further proposed to detect the spoofing attacks in the WAMS-based FFR system. Multiple experiments using the actual data from FNET/GridEye are performed to verify the effectiveness of the framework in securing WAMS-based FFR systems.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Opportunities for increasing CO 2 storage in deep, saline formations by active reservoir management and treatment of extracted formation water: Case study at the GreenGen IGCC facility, Tianjin, PR China

Carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) seeks beneficial applications for CO 2 recovered from fossil fuel combustion. This study evaluated the potential for removing formation water to create additional storage capacity for CO 2 , while simultaneously treating the produced water for beneficial use. Furthermore, the process would control pressures within the target formation, lessen the risk of caprock failure, and better control the movement of CO 2 within that formation. The project plans to highlight the method of using individual wells to produce formation water prior to injecting CO 2 as an efficient means of managing reservoir pressure. Because the pressure drawdown resulting from pre-injection formation water production will inversely correlate with pressure buildup resulting from CO 2 injection, it can be proactively used to estimate CO 2 storage capacity and to plan well-field operations. The project studied the GreenGen site in Tianjin, China where Huaneng Corporation is capturing CO 2 at a coal fired IGCC power plant. Known as the Tianjin Enhanced Water Recovery (EWR) project, local rock units were evaluated for CO 2 storage potential and produced water treatment options were then developed. Average treatment cost for produced water with a cooling water treatment goal ranged from 2.27 to 2.96 US$/m 3 (recovery 95.25%), and for a boiler water treatment goal ranged from 2.37 to 3.18 US$/m 3 (recovery 92.78%). Importance analysis indicated that water quality parameters and transportation are significant cost factors as the injection-extraction system is managed over time. Our study found that in a broad sense, active reservoir management in the context of CCUS/EWR is technically feasible. In addition, criteria for evaluating suitable vs. unsuitable reservoir properties, reservoir storage (caprock) integrity, a recommended injection/withdrawal strategy and cost estimates for water treatment and reservoir management are proposed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The cost of getting CCS wrong: Uncertainty, infrastructure design, and stranded CO 2

Carbon capture, and storage (CCS) infrastructure will require industry—such as fossil-fuel power, ethanol production, and oil and gas extraction—to make massive investment in infrastructure. The cost of getting these investments wrong will be substantial and will impact the success of CCS technology. Multiple factors can and will impact the success of commercial-scale CCS, including significant uncertainties regarding capture, transport, and injection-storage decisions. Uncertainties throughout the CCS supply chain include policy, technology, engineering performance, economics, and market forces. In particular, large uncertainties exist for the injection and storage of CO 2 . Even taking into account upfront investment in site characterization, the final performance of the storage phase is largely unknown until commercial-scale injection has started. We explore and quantify the impact of getting CCS infrastructure decisions wrong based on uncertain injection rates and uncertain CO 2 storage capacities using a case study managing CO 2 emissions from the Canadian oil sands industry in Alberta. We use Sim CCS, a widely used CCS infrastructure design framework, to develop multiple CCS infrastructure scenarios. Each scenario consists of a CCS infrastructure network that connects CO 2 sources (oil sands extraction and processing) with CO 2 storage reservoirs (acid gas storage reservoirs) using a dedicated CO 2 pipeline network. Each scenario is analyzed under a range of uncertain storage estimates and infrastructure performance is assessed and quantified in terms of cost to build additional infrastructure to store all CO 2 . We also include the role of stranded CO 2 , CO 2 that a source was expecting to but cannot capture due substandard performance in the transport and storage infrastructure. Results show that the cost of getting the original infrastructure design wrong are significant and that comprehensive planning will be required to ensure that CCS becomes a successful climate mitigation technology. Here, we show that the concept of stranded CO 2 can transform a seemingly high-performing infrastructure design into the worst case scenario.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Operation of a 50-kW th chemical looping combustion test facility under autothermal conditions

The United States Department of Energy is developing transformational fossil fuel combustion technologies that result in more efficient power cycles and/or substantial reductions in GHG emissions. Chemical Looping Combustion (CLC) has the potential to achieve a lower cost of electricity than a supercritical pulverized coal power plant with an amine absorption system. Although the concept and research on chemical looping has a long history, CLC has numerous technical issues that must be addressed prior to a commercial debut. This effort is directed toward the following major issues for CLC: (1) demonstrating continuous solids handling, operability, and reactor performance at autothermal conditions and (2) preliminary assessments of oxygen carrier attrition and relative material make-up costs. These are critical issues that should be addressed under realistic conditions prior to directing resources toward larger scale demonstrations. This paper will also describe NETL’s small 50-kWth natural gas circulating CLC test facility located in Morgantown, WV. Despite its small size, this experimental test unit has operated at autothermal conditions for 11 h using a copper-iron-alumina oxygen carrier developed at NETL. Here, this paper will describe the test facility and operating experiences using NETL’s “Gen 2.0” oxygen carrier material. Natural gas conversion to CO2 ranged from 70 to 90% over approximately 75 oxidation-reduction cycles during the autothermal operating period. Estimates for the process specific attrition rate during autothermal operation are also presented. Finally, estimates for the oxygen carrier makeup cost, specific to the NETL process configuration, are several orders of magnitude greater than the NETL target. Future work should focus on reducing the oxygen carrier material cost and improving the attrition resistance of the oxygen carrier material under autothermal test conditions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗