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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Batteries Included: Top 10 Findings from Berkeley Lab Research on the Growth of Hybrid Power Plants in the United States

One of the most important electric power system trends of the 2010s was the rapid deployment of wind turbines and photovoltaic arrays, but a twist for the 2020s may be the rapid deployment of ‘hybrid’ generation resources. Hybrid power plants typically combine solar or wind (or other energy sources) with co-located storage. While hybridization helps to ease the challenge of balancing variable supply and demand, its relative novelty means that research is needed to facilitate integration and promote innovation. Combining the characteristics of multiple energy, storage, and conversion technologies poses complex questions for grid operations and economics. Project developers, system operators, planners, and regulators would benefit from better data, methods, and tools to estimate the costs, values, and system impacts of hybrid projects. This publication showcases some of Berkeley Lab’s robust research program intended to support private- and public-sector decision-making about hybrid plants in the United States. Our short briefing summarizes articles that we published between 2020 and 2022, links to the in-depth reports, and provides contact details for further engagement on the specific research topics: Growth: Developer interest in hybrid power plants is strong and growing Price vs. Value: PV+storage hybrids have low PPA prices and high value in some regions Market Drivers: Solar hybridization is driven by tax credits and other benefits Configuration Choices: Market prices have incentivized shorter duration batteries with PV Capacity Value: The capacity contribution of a hybrid is less than the sum of its parts Ancillary Services: AS markets are a valuable yet fleeting option for hybrids Market Participation: Hybrids can more flexibly engage with electricity markets Operations: The power system value of hybrids depends on how they are operated Distributed Hybrids: Growth of customer-sited PV+storage hybrids offers new opportunities Future Research: Where next? Priority areas for hybrid power research.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Field Results from New Tensor Borehole Optical Fiber Strainmeter Installations in Oklahoma and Utah

The time evolving strain field contains a wealth of information that can be used to interpret subsurface behavior. For example, injecting or removing fluids from reservoirs or aquifers causes deformation that can be used as a diagnostic signal in some cases, while it can interfere with geodetic interpretations in other cases. We've previously demonstrated the feasibility of measuring the strain tensor at a depth of 30m caused by injection into a reservoir at 530m. The observed strain signals were interpreted using four independent analytic and numerical methods that resulted in estimates of the poroelastic properties and geometry of the reservoir that was consistent with data from well logs. However, studies like these are only possible if these deformations can be reliably measured. Years of lab and field work has culminated in the development of a novel borehole strainmeter capable of resolving multiple components of strain using embedded optical fibers configured as Michelson interferometers. It features four horizontal gauges separated by 45° to resolve the horizontal strain tensor as well as a vertical strain gauge and a sixth null component for state-of-health monitoring. The downhole sensing package also includes an open pipe through its center for grout circulation during single-trip deployments and a fully welded stainless steel exterior for robustness and longevity. These instruments have a resolution of 2x10-13 strain that can easily measure the solid earth tides. Preliminary data are available from four strainmeters in shale at our Oklahoma site and four in compacted sand and gravel in Utah. These are deployed from 40-60m, except one of the strainmeters in Oklahoma is deployed at 500m. The data include strains from the initial grout curing, comparisons to predicted earth tide models and in-situ calibration results, barometric pressure admittances and spectral analyses as well as signals from underground injections and surface waves from teleseismic events. Preliminary analyses indicate behavior consistent with other strainmeter deployments, and comparison to data from a Gladwin strainmeter at the Oklahoma site validate the performance of the new design. Analyses from a suite of six well tests at the Oklahoma site show for the first time how the strain tensor field varies with location during well testing.

DeWolf, Scott↗
NASA NTRS2013

Scalable Adaptive Graphics Environment (SAGE) Software for the Visualization of Large Data Sets on a Video Wall

The use of collaborative scientific visualization systems for the analysis, visualization, and sharing of "big data" available from new high resolution remote sensing satellite sensors or four‐dimensional numerical model simulations is propelling the wider adoption of ultra‐resolution tiled display walls interconnected by high speed networks. These systems require a globally connected and well‐integrated operating environment that provides persistent visualization and collaboration services. This abstract and subsequent presentation describes a new collaborative visualization system installed for NASA's Shortterm Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) program at Marshall Space Flight Center and its use for Earth science applications. The system consists of a 3 x 4 array of 1920 x 1080 pixel thin bezel video monitors mounted on a wall in a scientific collaboration lab. The monitors are physically and virtually integrated into a 14' x 7' for video display. The display of scientific data on the video wall is controlled by a single Alienware Aurora PC with a 2nd Generation Intel Core 4.1 GHz processor, 32 GB memory, and an AMD Fire Pro W600 video card with 6 mini display port connections. Six mini display‐to‐dual DVI cables are used to connect the 12 individual video monitors. The open source Scalable Adaptive Graphics Environment (SAGE) windowing and media control framework, running on top of the Ubuntu 12 Linux operating system, allows several users to simultaneously control the display and storage of high resolution still and moving graphics in a variety of formats, on tiled display walls of any size. The Ubuntu operating system supports the open source Scalable Adaptive Graphics Environment (SAGE) software which provides a common environment, or framework, enabling its users to access, display and share a variety of data‐intensive information. This information can be digital‐cinema animations, high‐resolution images, high‐definition video‐teleconferences, presentation slides, documents, spreadsheets or laptop screens. SAGE is cross‐platform, community‐driven, open‐source visualization and collaboration middleware that utilizes shared national and international cyberinfrastructure for the advancement of scientific research and education.

Jedlovec, Gary↗
NASA NTRS2001

Fibroma induction in rat skin following single or multiple doses of 1.0 GeV/nucleon 56Fe ions from the Brookhaven Alternating Gradient Synchrotron (AGS)

Rat skin was exposed to the plateau region of the 1.0 GeV/nucleon 56Fe beam at the Brookhaven AGS. Rats were irradiated or not with single of split doses of 56Fe or argon; some 56Fe-exposed rats were fed 250 ppm retinyl acetate continuously in the lab chow beginning 1 week before irradiation. All lesions were noted, photographed and identified for eventual histological diagnosis. The preponderance of the tumors so far are fibromas. The data show that single doses of 56Fe ions are 2 or 3 fold more effective than argon in producing tumors at 4.5 Gy but are about equally effective at 3.0 Gy and 9.0 Gy. The presence of 250 ppm retinyl acetate in the lab chow reduced the incidence of tumors by about 50-60% in comparison to groups exposed only to the radiation. These are preliminary findings based on only about one-fourth the eventual number of tumors expected.

NASA Discipline Radiation Health↗
DOE OSTI2019

Vapor-Phase Stabilization of Biomass Pyrolysis Vapors Using Mixed-Metal Oxide Catalysts

Mixed-metal oxides possess a wide range of tunability and show promise for catalytic stabilization of biomass pyrolysis products. For materials derived from layered double hydroxides, understanding the effect of divalent cation species and divalent/trivalent cation stoichiometric ratio on catalytic behavior is critical to their successful implementation. In this study, four mixed-metal oxide catalysts consisting of Al, Zn, and Mg in different stoichiometric ratios were synthesized and tested for ex-situ catalytic fast pyrolysis (CFP) using pine wood as feedstock. The catalytic activity and deactivation behavior of these catalysts were monitored in real-time using a lab-scale pyrolysis reactor and fixed catalyst bed coupled with a molecular beam mass spectrometer (MBMS), and data were analyzed by multivariate statistical approaches. In the comparison between Mg-Al and Zn-Al catalyst materials, we demonstrated that the Mg-Al materials possessed greater quantities of basic sites, which we attributed to their higher surface areas, and they produced upgraded pyrolysis vapors which contained less acids and more deoxygenated aromatic hydrocarbons such as toluene and xylene. However, detrimental impacts on carbon yields were realized via decarbonylation and decarboxylation reactions and coke formation. Given that the primary goals of catalytic upgrading of bio-oil are deoxygenation, reduction of acidity, and high carbon yield, these results highlight both promising catalytic effects of mixed-metal oxide materials and opportunities for improvement.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Measurement of R = σ L / σ T and the separated longitudinal and transverse structure functions in the nucleon-resonance region

Here we report on a detailed study of longitudinal strength in the nucleon resonance region, presenting new results from inclusive electron-proton cross sections measured at Jefferson Lab Hall C in the four-momentum transfer range 0.2 < Q 2 < 5.5 GeV 2 . The data have been used to accurately perform over 170 Rosenbluth-type longitudinal/transverse separations. The precision R = $\sigma_{L} /\sigma _{T}$ data are presented here, along with the first separate values of the inelastic structure functions F 1 and F L in this regime. The resonance longitudinal component is found to be significant. With the new data, quark-hadron duality is observed above Q 2 = 1 GeV 2 in the separated structure functions independently.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Nannochloropsis oceanica IMET1 and its bacterial symbionts for carbon capture, utilization, and storage: biomass and calcium carbonate production under high pH and high alkalinity

ABSTRACT To combat the increasing levels of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) released from the combustion of fossil fuels, microalgae have emerged as a promising strategy for biological carbon capture, utilization, and storage. This study used a marine microalgal strain, Nannochloropsis oceanica IMET1, which thrives in high CO 2 concentrations. A high-pH, high-alkalinity culture was designed for CO 2 capture through algal biomass production as well as permanent sequestration through calcium carbonate (CaCO 3 ) precipitation. This was accomplished by timed pH elevation and the addition of sodium bicarbonate to cultures of N. oceanica grown at lab scale (1 L) and pilot scale (500 L) with 10% and 5% CO 2 , respectively. Our data showed that 0.02 M NaHCO 3 promoted algal growth and that sparging cultures with ambient air after 12 days raised pH and created favorable CaCO 3 formation conditions. At the 1 L scale, we reached 1.52 g L −1 biomass after 12 days and an extra 9.3% CO 2 was captured in the form of CaCO 3 precipitates. At the 500 L pilot scale, an extra 60% CO 2 was captured (Day 40) with a maximum CO 2 capture rate of 63.2 g m −2 day −1 (Day 35). Bacterial communities associated with the microalgae were dominated by two novel Patescibacteria. Functional analysis revealed that genes for several plant growth-promotion traits (PGPTs) were enriched within this group. The microalgal-bacterial coculture system offers advantages for enhanced carbon mitigation through biomass production and simultaneous precipitation of recalcitrant CaCO 3 for long-term CO 2 storage. IMPORTANCE Capturing carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) released from fossil fuel combustion is of the utmost importance as the impacts of climate change continue to worsen. Microalgae can remove CO 2 through their natural photosynthetic pathways and are additionally able to convert CO 2 into a stable, recalcitrant form as calcium carbonate (CaCO 3 ). We demonstrate that microalgae-based carbon capture systems can be greatly improved with high pH and high alkalinity by providing optimal conditions for carbonate precipitation. Our results with the microalga, Nannochloropsis oceanica strain IMET1, show an extra 9.3% CO 2 captured as CaCO 3 at the 1 L scale and an extra 60% CO 2 captured at the 500 L (pilot) scale. Our optimized system provides a novel approach to capture CO 2 through two mechanisms: (i) as organic carbon within microalgal biomass and (ii) as inorganic carbon stored permanently in the form of CaCO 3.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2024

TEAMER - Field Demonstration of MarineSitu’s Marine Energy Monitoring Tools - CRADA 664 (Abstract)

In order to effectively monitor for marine life around marine energy devices and thus minimize the risk of collision, multiple sensors working in coordination and augmented with around-the-clock automated monitoring algorithms need to be installed in challenging high-energy tidal and wave environments. Such systems are often too expensive for widespread adoption, or lack sufficient sensors or smarts to enable around-the-clock, real-time monitoring without human involvement. MarineSitu has been working to tackle this problem by developing a low-cost, combined sonar and stereo camera sensor array with connected real-time AI-based algorithms for automatically detecting marine life in these marine energy suitable environments. In this TEAMER project with Pacific Northwest National Lab (PNNL), MarineSitu will be testing this novel sensor system for the first time in the high-energy tidal channel environment at PNNL’s Marine and Coastal Research Lab. Throughout this deployment, MarineSitu will be monitoring their system and running analytics on the sensor’s data in real-time. Meanwhile, PNNL Data Scientists and Ocean Engineers, will be evaluating the system’s effectiveness and ease of use both as a tool for plug-and-play environmental monitoring and novel environmental monitoring research. In doing so, the team will improve MarineSitu’s system and software, produce insightful data products, and develop novel visualizations and AI algorithms for combining and analyzing the data produced by systems like MarineSitu’s.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2025

TEAMER – Field Demonstration of MarineSitu’s Marine Energy Monitoring (Abstract)

In order to effectively monitor for marine life around marine energy devices and thus minimize the risk of collision, multiple sensors working in coordination and augmented with around-the-clock automated monitoring algorithms need to be installed in challenging high-energy tidal and wave environments. Such systems are often too expensive for widespread adoption, or lack sufficient sensors or smarts to enable around-the-clock, real-time monitoring without human involvement. MarineSitu has been working to tackle this problem by developing a low-cost, combined sonar and stereo camera sensor array with connected real-time AI-based algorithms for automatically detecting marine life in these marine energy suitable environments. In this TEAMER project with Pacific Northwest National Lab (PNNL), MarineSitu will be testing this novel sensor system for the first time in the high-energy tidal channel environment at PNNL’s Marine and Coastal Research Lab. Throughout this deployment, MarineSitu will be monitoring their system and running analytics on the sensor’s data in real-time. Meanwhile, PNNL Data Scientists and Ocean Engineers, will be evaluating the system’s effectiveness and ease of use both as a tool for plug-and-play environmental monitoring and novel environmental monitoring research. In doing so, the team will improve MarineSitu’s system and software, produce insightful data products, and develop novel visualizations and AI algorithms for combining and analyzing the data produced by systems like MarineSitu’s.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
NASA NTRS2003

Space Rocks Tell Their Secrets: Space Science Applications of Physics and Chemistry for High School and College Classes

As the scientific community studies Mars remotely for signs of life and uses Martian meteorites as its only available samples, teachers, students, and the general public continue to ask, "How do we know these meteorites are from Mars?" This question sets the stage for a three-lesson instructional package Space Rocks Tell Their Secrets. Expanding on the short answer "It's the chemistry of the rock", students are introduced to the research that reveals the true identities of the rocks. Since few high school or beginning college students have the opportunity to participate in this level of research, a slide presentation introduces them to the labs, samples, and people involved with the research. As they work through the lessons and interpret real data, students realize that the research is an application of basic science concepts they should know, the electromagnetic spectrum and isotopes. They can understand the results without knowing how to do the research or operate the instruments.

Lindstrom, M. M.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Lunar and Planetary Science XXXV: Lunar Remote Sensing: Fire, Ice, and Regolith

The session "Lunar Remote Sensing: Fire, Ice, and Regolith" included the following:Compositional and Structural Study of the Aristarchus Plateau from Integrated UV-VIS-NIR Spectral Data; Clementine 2.7-?m Data: Mapping the Mare and Searching for Water; On the Search for Water at the Lunar Poles: Results of Forward Modeling of Permanently Shaded Areas and Lunar Prospector Measurements; Searching the Moon for Aluminous Mare Basalts Using Compositional Remote-Sensing Constraints I: Finding the Regions of Interest; Semi-automated Extraction of Contours from Lunar Topographic Maps; Basalts in Mare Humorum and S.E. Procellarum; The Hansteen and Helmet Volcanic Dome Regions on the Moon: Stratigraphy and Ages; Derivation of Elemental Abundance Maps at 15-km Spatial Resolution from the Merging of Clementine Optical and Lunar Prospector Geochemical Data; Remote Sensing and Geologic Studies of the Balmer Region of the Moon; Lava Flows in Mare Nubium and Mare Cognitum: A Geological History Based on Analysis of Multispectral Data; Development of Ground-based Lunar VIS/NEAR IR Spectral Imager; A BRDF Measurement Apparatus for Lab-based Samples; A New Source of High Resolution Lunar Images: Amateur Astronomers! ; Leakage of Gamma Rays and Neutrons from Thick Targets Bombarded by Energetic Protons; Progress on Reviving Lunar Orbiter: Scanning, Archiving, and Cartographic Processing at USGS; Modeling Lateral and Vertical Mixing by Impact Cratering with Applications for the Moon; Optical Maturity Study of Stuart#s Crater Candidate Impact; Evidence for Three Basins Beneath Oceanus Procellarum; and Ellipses of the South Pole-Aitken Basin: Implications for Basin Formation.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2004

Space Rocks Tell Their Secrets: Space Science Applications of Physics and Chemistry for High School and College Classes: Update

As the scientific community studies Mars remotely for signs of life and uses Martian meteorites as its only available samples, teachers, students, and the general public continue to ask, How do we know these meteorites are from Mars? This question sets the stage for a six-lesson instructional package Space Rocks Tell Their Secrets. Expanding on the short answer It s the chemistry of the rock , students are introduced to the research that reveals the true identities of the rocks. Since few high school or beginning college students have the opportunity to participate in this level of research, a slide presentation introduces them to the labs, samples, and people involved with the research. As they work through the lessons and interpret authentic data, students realize that the research is an application of two basic science concepts taught in the classroom, the electromagnetic spectrum and isotopes.

Lindstrom, M. M.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Space Rocks Tell Their Secrets: Space Science Applications of Physics and Chemistry for High School and College Classes. Update.

As the scientific community studies Mars remotely for signs of life and uses Martian meteorites as its only available samples, teachers, students, and the general public continue to ask, "How do we know these meteorites are from Mars?" This question sets the stage for a six-lesson instructional package Space Rocks Tell Their Secrets. Expanding on the short answer "It's the chemistry of the rock", students are introduced to the research that reveals the true identities of the rocks. Since few high school or beginning college students have the opportunity to participate in this level of research, a slide presentation introduces them to the labs, samples, and people involved with the research. As they work through the lessons and interpret authentic data, students realize that the research is an application of two basic science concepts taught in the classroom, the electromagnetic spectrum and isotopes. Additional information is included in the original extended abstract.

Lindstrom, M. M.↗
NASA NTRS2015

3-D CFD Simulation and Validation of Oxygen-Rich Hydrocarbon Combustion in a Gas-Centered Swirl Coaxial Injector using a Flamelet-Based Approach

Injector design is a critical part of the development of a rocket Thrust Chamber Assembly (TCA). Proper detailed injector design can maximize propulsion efficiency while minimizing the potential for failures in the combustion chamber. Traditional design and analysis methods for hydrocarbon-fuel injector elements are based heavily on empirical data and models developed from heritage hardware tests. Using this limited set of data produces challenges when trying to design a new propulsion system where the operating conditions may greatly differ from heritage applications. Time-accurate, Three-Dimensional (3-D) Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) modeling of combusting flows inside of injectors has long been a goal of the fluid analysis group at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) and the larger CFD modeling community. CFD simulation can provide insight into the design and function of an injector that cannot be obtained easily through testing or empirical comparisons to existing hardware. However, the traditional finite-rate chemistry modeling approach utilized to simulate combusting flows for complex fuels, such as Rocket Propellant-2 (RP-2), is prohibitively expensive and time consuming even with a large amount of computational resources. MSFC has been working, in partnership with Streamline Numerics, Inc., to develop a computationally efficient, flamelet-based approach for modeling complex combusting flow applications. In this work, a flamelet modeling approach is used to simulate time-accurate, 3-D, combusting flow inside a single Gas Centered Swirl Coaxial (GCSC) injector using the flow solver, Loci-STREAM. CFD simulations were performed for several different injector geometries. Results of the CFD analysis helped guide the design of the injector from an initial concept to a tested prototype. The results of the CFD analysis are compared to data gathered from several hot-fire, single element injector tests performed in the Air Force Research Lab EC-1 test facility located at Edwards Air Force Base.

Richardson, Brian↗
NASA NTRS2018

Electrostatic Levitation for Studies of Additive Manufacturing Materials for Extreme Environments

The electrostatic levitation (ESL) laboratory at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) is a national resource for researchers developing advanced materials for new technologies. Researchers have used MSFC's ESL Laboratory to develop advanced high-temperature materials for aerospace applications, coatings and structural materials for rocket nozzles, improved medical and industrial optics, metallic glasses, ablatives for reentry vehicles, and materials with memory. Modeling of additive manufacturing materials for extreme environments is necessary for the control of their resulting materials properties. Unfortunately, there is very little materials properties data for many additive manufacturing materials, especially of the materials in the liquid state. The MSFC ESL lab is ideal for the study of additive manufacturing materials to be used in extreme environments. The lab can provide density, surface tension, and viscosity of molten materials, emissivity measurements, and even creep strength measurements.

SanSoucie, Michael↗
DOE OSTI2020

(Oxy)hydroxides Formed on Aluminum Fuel Materials After Irradiation and Long-Term Wet Storage - 20354

The aluminum cladding of research-reactor fuel experiences general corrosion when in contact with water during in-reactor service and post-discharge wet storage, resulting in the formation of adherent aluminum (oxy)hydroxide films. These (oxy)hydroxides contain chemically-bound water that poses challenges for extended dry storage due to the risk of thermal or radiolytic decomposition releasing free water and/or hydrogen and oxygen gases. This study describes characterization of the (oxy)hydroxides present on several aluminum materials used in reactor operation and subsequently stored wet in the L-Basin storage facility at the Savannah River Site (SRS) for an extended period. Characterization data providing insight into the loading, composition, and morphology of (oxy)hydroxides to be expected on service-exposed aluminum cladding provides valuable benchmarks for designing adequate drying and dry-storage approaches. This work is part of a broader investigation to address knowledge gaps and technical data needs for dry storage of aluminum-clad spent nuclear fuel (ASNF), which included in-lab growth of (oxy)hydroxide films on aluminum alloy substrates to investigate formation behavior, investigation of drying methods to remove existing (oxy)hydroxides from ASNF cladding, and measurement of radiolytic yield of hydrogen from (oxy)hydroxide powders and films. In this study, (oxy)hydroxide films were characterized for three aluminum-alloy materials used in reactors and subsequently stored wet for up to approximately 40 years in L-Basin at SRS: one cropping from a Missouri University Research Reactor (MURR) fuel element (Al-6061 alloy), one cropping from a Universal Sleeve Housing (USH) (Al-6063 alloy), and one Mark-16B fuel assembly (either Al-6061 or Al- 6063). The USH and Mark-16B were used in SRS production reactors. Characterization of the as-received (oxy)hydroxides included scanning electron microscopy (SEM) in both plan-view and cross-section to characterize the (oxy)hydroxide layer's morphology, thickness, and structure. X-ray diffraction (XRD) was used to identify the chemical composition and distinguish between the various aluminum (oxy)hydroxides known to form under reactor and storage conditions. XRD analysis revealed both bayerite (Al(OH)3) and boehmite (AlOOH) on the surface of the MURR and USH samples, as well as bayerite, boehmite, and gibbsite (another Al(OH)3 polymorph) on the surface of the Mark-16B sample. The aluminum trihydroxides, bayerite and gibbsite, are typically associated with corrosion in low-temperature (<80 deg. C) water, while boehmite is expected to form at higher water temperature (>80 deg. C). The presence of bayerite on the USH, which is believed to have operated close to 90 deg. C, suggests that boehmite formed during in-reactor exposure was not protective against further hydroxide growth in low-temperature wet storage. Cross-section scanning electron microscopy (SEM) showed total (oxy)hydroxide layer thicknesses of ∼5- 10 μm for the MURR and ∼5-15 μm for the Mark-16B. The thickness of the USH's (oxy)hydroxide layer was indiscernible by the current mounting and imaging method, despite plan-view SEM and XRD confirming the presence of an (oxy)hydroxide layer. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2021

Disaggregating Future Retail Electricity Rate Growth [Slides]

Recent Berkeley Lab research found that modest retail rate increases over the past 10 years were mostly driven by large increases in capital expenditures (CapEx) that were offset in part by substantial wholesale price reductions. Decision-makers are increasingly concerned about the potential future rate impacts of a number of policies and industry trends that support rapid decarbonization, electrification, and grid modernization. Using historical FERC Form 1 data and the existing literature on policies and industry trends that are likely to affect utility-incurred costs and retail sales, Berkeley Lab researchers developed ranges of forecasted growth rates for cost-related rate drivers (i.e., fuel and purchased power; transmission, distribution, generation, and other categories of both non-fuel operations & maintenance and CapEx) and non-cost related rate drivers (i.e., retail sales, peak demand, and customers). These were then used as inputs to a pro-forma utility financial model (FINDER) that estimated the growth in retail electric rates between 2020 and 2030 for a prototypical vertically-integrated investor-owned utility in the United States. The analysis produced the following results: 1. Assuming average growth rates in all rate drivers, future retail rate growth is driven by sizable increases in all CapEx costs, where fuel and purchased power costs are replaced by generation CapEx as the largest rate component between 2020 and 2030. 2. Growth in sales/peak demand/customers, generation CapEx costs, and fuel and purchased power (FPP) costs, in isolation, produce the most uncertainty in rate growth. Specifically, a 1% increase in the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of retail sales, coincident peak demand (CP), and customers (Sales-CP-Cust) results in a 0.88-0.93% decrease in the CAGR of rates, in isolation. However, a 1% increase in the CAGR of generation CapEx budgets results in a 0.07-0.14% increase in the CAGR of rates, while a 1% increase in the CAGR of FPP costs causes a 0.10-0.14% increase in the CAGR of rates, all else being equal. 3. Taking into account the correlation and variability of the growth in all rate drivers jointly, generation CapEx is expected to be both the largest and most uncertain rate component by 2030 (20-25% share of the retail rate). Transmission and distribution CapEx, along with fuel and purchased power costs are each expected to comprise between 12% and 17% of retail rates.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗