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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2022

Online Learning and Pricing for Network Revenue Management with Reusable Resources

We consider a price-based network revenue management problem with multiple products and multiple reusable resources. Each randomly arriving customer requests a product (service) that needs to occupy a sequence of reusable resources (servers). We adopt an incomplete information setting where the firm does not know the price-demand function for each product and the goal is to dynamically set prices of all products to maximize the total expected revenue of serving customers. We propose novel batched bandit learning algorithms for finding near-optimal pricing policies, and show that they admit a near-optimal cumulative regret bound of $O(J\sqrt{XT})$, where J, X, and T, are the numbers of products, candidate prices, and service periods, respectively. As part of our regret analysis, we develop the first finite-time mixing time analysis of an open network queueing system (i.e., the celebrated Jackson Network), which could be of independent interest. Our numerical studies show that the proposed approaches perform consistently well.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Exploring the dependence of gas cooling and heating functions on the incident radiation field with machine learning

ABSTRACT Gas cooling and heating functions play a crucial role in galaxy formation. But, it is computationally expensive to exactly compute these functions in the presence of an incident radiation field. These computations can be greatly sped up by using interpolation tables of pre-computed values, at the expense of making significant and sometimes even unjustified approximations. Here, we explore the capacity of machine learning to approximate cooling and heating functions with a generalized radiation field. Specifically, we use the machine learning algorithm XGBoost to predict cooling and heating functions calculated with the photoionization code cloudy at fixed metallicity, using different combinations of photoionization rates as features. We perform a constrained quadratic fit in metallicity to enable a fair comparison with traditional interpolation methods at arbitrary metallicity. We consider the relative importance of various photoionization rates through both a principal component analysis (PCA) and calculation of SHapley Additive exPlanation (shap) values for our XGBoost models. We use feature importance information to select different subsets of rates to use in model training. Our XGBoost models outperform a traditional interpolation approach at each fixed metallicity, regardless of feature selection. At arbitrary metallicity, we are able to reduce the frequency of the largest cooling and heating function errors compared to an interpolation table. We find that the primary bottleneck to increasing accuracy lies in accurately capturing the metallicity dependence. This study demonstrates the potential of machine learning methods such as XGBoost to capture the non-linear behaviour of cooling and heating functions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Advances in imaging, scattering, spectroscopy, and machine learning-aided approaches for multiscale characterization of cementitious systems

Recent progress in methods used in the multiscale characterization of cementitious systems is reviewed, focusing on advances in imaging, scattering, and spectroscopy. The review includes relevant applications and developments in machine learning and other data analytics approaches to enhance characterization. Developments in imaging using light and electron microscopy as well as x-ray (i.e., from synchrotron) methods are summarized. Updates include scanning electron microscopy (SEM), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), tomography, and holography. A critical overview of spectroscopy (e.g., MAS NMR, Raman) and scattering (e.g., neutron, x-ray, synchrotron x-ray) methods is provided, and the intersection of these with imaging is developed (e.g., Raman imaging). Additionally, the paper summarizes recent developments in and implementations of state-of-the-art machine-learning algorithms and data analytics methods for automated, systematic, and/or quantitative analyses of image data sets. The review considers but is not limited to the application of these methods for investigating the hydration and microstructure development of cement phases, low-carbon-footprint cements (e.g., limestone calcined clay cements, LC3), environmental interactions (e.g., ASR) and model systems. Finally, the present work provides a critical presentation of advances in characterization methods that link together the composition and multiscale structure of cementitious materials.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

U.S. GPM Status

The joint U.S.-Japan Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission, now in its tenth year of operations, continues to pursue research on scientific and operational shortcomings in algorithms for retrieving global precipitation from satellite observations. A summary of operations, including the orbit boost, processing, science, and applications is provided. This includes key improvements to the GPM products for which NASA has lead responsibility. This includes refinements to ensure continuity for each product across the boundary in 2014 between the predecessor Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and the GPM Core Observatory. Early evaluations of the U.S. Science Team’s Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) in V07 show interesting behavior across the TRMM orbit boost that is highly relevant to the planned orbit boost for the GPM Core observatory. We will present summary statistics that illustrate the tremendous demand that exists in the user community for GPM precipitation products, which on the U.S. side is primarily focused on IMERG, and end by considering major issues that might be addressed in up-coming versions. These include the use of machine learning algorithms, the operational challenge of swarms of “small”, perhaps short-lived satellites, and continuation of precessing calibration satellites after GPM.

GPM↗

DOE OSTI2021

Development of Automated Pipeline for Time-Resolved Link-Wise Vehicular Energy Consumption in the Chattanooga, TN Road Network

The Department of Energy (DOE) has shown strong interest in detecting energy inefficiencies in regional road networks, so as to derive energy consumed at a high spatial temporal resolution. We have developed a workflow to automate the estimation of time-resolved vehicular energy consumption over each link in a road network of interest. The road network used in the current work is centered around the city of Chattanooga, Tennessee and its bordering regions. Utilizing the most mature road network for the Chattanooga, TN region, vehicle speed & count data from TomTom in conjunction with machine learning methods, we have developed an automated pipeline to estimate energy consumption for every link in the network. The first step in the pipeline is ingesting vehicle probe counts and speed estimates from TomTom API. In the next step, the probe counts, speed profiles and other exogenous data (i.e. road types, weather data, ground-truth volume counts and more) were used as input to a supervised learning algorithm to estimate the number of vehicles throughout the entire region for each road segment. These volume estimates were then mapped to a unified road network that contained additional important information such as percentage change in gradient across a link, number of lanes and link lengths that are features in pre-trained single vehicle energy-consumption models available with the RouteE software developed at NREL. The per vehicle energy consumption on each road link predicted using appropriate RouteE vehicular models were multiplied by the volume estimate for the corresponding link over a given time period to predict energy consumed per link for the time interval of interest. Currently, work is underway to improve both the RouteE per vehicle energy estimate and the volume estimates derived from TomTom probe counts. We have also explored the correlation of the link-wise energy estimates with the features of the pre-trained RouteE machine learning model in order to gain insight into what factors contribute most to the link-wise energy consumption.

ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION,↗

NASA NTRS2017

Implementation of a Space Communications Cognitive Engine

Although communications-based cognitive engines have been proposed, very few have been implemented in a full system, especially in a space communications system. In this paper, we detail the implementation of a multi-objective reinforcement-learning algorithm and deep artificial neural networks for the use as a radio-resource-allocation controller. The modular software architecture presented encourages re-use and easy modification for trying different algorithms. Various trade studies involved with the system implementation and integration are discussed. These include the choice of software libraries that provide platform flexibility and promote reusability, choices regarding the deployment of this cognitive engine within a system architecture using the DVB-S2 standard and commercial hardware, and constraints placed on the cognitive engine caused by real-world radio constraints. The implemented radio-resource allocation-management controller was then integrated with the larger spaceground system developed by NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC).

reinforcement learning↗

NASA NTRS2017

Implementation of a Space Communications Cognitive Engine

reinforcement learning↗

DOE OSTI2023

An Ensemble of Neural Networks for Moist Physics Processes, Its Generalizability and Stable Integration

Abstract With the recent advances in data science, machine learning has been increasingly applied to convection and cloud parameterizations in global climate models (GCMs). This study extends the work of Han et al. (2020, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020MS002076 ) and uses an ensemble of 32‐layer deep convolutional residual neural networks, referred to as ResCu‐en, to emulate convection and cloud processes simulated by a superparameterized GCM, SPCAM. ResCu‐en predicts GCM grid‐scale temperature and moisture tendencies, and cloud liquid and ice water contents from moist physics processes. The surface rainfall is derived from the column‐integrated moisture tendency. The prediction uncertainty inherent in deep learning algorithms in emulating the moist physics is reduced by ensemble averaging. Results in 1‐year independent offline validation show that ResCu‐en has high prediction accuracy for all output variables, both in the current climate and in a warmer climate with +4K sea surface temperature. The analysis of different neural net configurations shows that the success to generalize in a warmer climate is attributed to convective memory and the 1‐dimensional convolution layers incorporated into ResCu‐en. We further implement a member of ResCu‐en into CAM5 with real world geography and run the neural‐network‐enabled CAM5 (NCAM) for 5 years without encountering any numerical integration instability. The simulation generally captures the global distribution of the mean precipitation, with a better simulation of precipitation intensity and diurnal cycle. However, there are large biases in temperature and moisture in high latitudes. These results highlight the importance of convective memory and demonstrate the potential for machine learning to enhance climate modeling.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2019

Data-Driven Day-Ahead PV Estimation Using Hybrid Deep Learning

Ongoing smart grid activities and associated automation resulted in rich set of data. Here, these data can be utilized for monitoring and estimation of real time photovoltaic (PV) generation. Inherent variability in PV and related impact on power systems is a challenging problem. Improving the accuracy of PV generation estimation is beneficial for both the PV owners and the grid operators. Recently, deep learning algorithms possible by the availability of data have shown its advantages for time series estimation; however, its application on PV generation estimation is still in the early stage. In this paper, a hybrid estimation model with a combination of long-short-term-memory network (LSTM) and persistence model (PM) is developed to provide day-ahead PV estimation at 15-minute time interval with high accuracy and robustness. Simulation results show the superior performance of the proposed method over existing methods for most of the test cases.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Multi‐Scale Model‐Informed Deep Learning for Plasma‐Nanoparticle Interaction

The Overarching Goal of this proposed research is to understand and quantitively determine the interactions between non-thermal plasma (hot electrons, reactive radicals, vibrationally excited species) and surface reactions on influencing the activity and selectivity of the desired reactions via developing multi-scale model informed deep learning algorithm. Investigating non-thermal plasma-surface interaction is feasible due to the low bulk temperature in the discharge region. To investigate the role of plasma-nanoparticle interaction on enhancing the reaction kinetics, we will focus on ammonia cracking to generate clean hydrogen over earth-abundant, non-critical metallic nanoparticles, which is of great significance for decarbonization. We hypothesize that (1) reactive radicals interacting with surface reaction species via Eley–Rideal mechanism will significantly lower the energetics of the potential rate-limiting step of nitrogen formation; (2) the surface will be charged heterogeneously under non-thermal plasma conditions and the charged site will lower the energetics of ammonia cracking through Langmuir– Hinshelwood mechanism; (3) vibrationally excited ammonia will further promote the initial N-H bond cleavage. To access the hypothesis, we will (1) reveal the surface charge effects on tunning the reaction energetics via interpretable, physics-informed deep learning accelerated density functional theory (DFT) calculations; (2) determine the reactive radicals interacting with surface reaction species on tuning the reaction energetics via DFT; (3) reveal the surface charge effects on tunning the reaction energetics via DFT and deep learning models, (4) quantify how vibrationally excited species, reactive radicals, and surface charging effects on enhancing the catalysis via developing DFT-based microkinetic modeling (MKM) and active learning. Deep and active learning of plasma-nanoparticle interactions effects on enhancing ammonia cracking to generate hydrogen represents a new paradigm for designing high performance plasma materials. The fundamental science of how plasma-nanoparticle interactions will change the plasma kinetics and will improve the energy efficiency for decarbonization and sustainability. The interpretable and physics-informed machine learning model will accelerate low temperature plasma chemistry and material discovery with physics rules and model interpretation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRS2021

Predicting Arrival and Departure Runway Assignments with Machine Learning

Runway assignments at major airports are made by air traffic controllers subject to various constraints, and to achieve various objectives. In this research, we describe our efforts training machine learning (ML) models to predict both departure and arrival runway assignments using an entirely data-driven approach. This approach is compared to existing rule-based approaches developed in previous research using input from Subject Matter Experts. The models have features derived from various FAA data feeds, and leverage multiple machine learning algorithms. Results for models trained for nine major U.S. airports are described and compared to one another across various important dimensions. Particular attention was paid to developing a repeatable framework for training these models so the approach could be scaled to other airports, and to developing models that are useful in a real-time environment. In addition, the models were designed to be functional in a real-time environment to support NASA’s ATD-2 project, as part of an ML-powered shadow system to compare against the performance of the fielded system.

machine learning↗

DOE OSTI2024

Constituent Data Replacement Tool

The purpose of this tool is to estimate key parameters that may be missing in public wastewater composition datasets. The tool can be applied to develop complete treatment and critical mineral extraction profiles for leachate, produced water and other aqueous waste streams. The tool applies machine learning algorithms to replace missing data in a user’s water data set that are adjusted based on user preferences for options including algorithm type, number of features, and classification variables. The tool can use the user’s data alone or combine user data with the NEWTS USGS Produced Water Database for more robust training. This research was funded by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office Fossil Energy and Carbon Management (FECM) through National Energy Technology Laboratory’s ongoing research under the Water Management for Power System Field Work Proposal, DE-FECM 1022428 and Critical Minerals Field Work Proposal, DE-FECM 1022420.

Aqueous Chemistry↗

NASA NTRS2021

Predicting Arrival and Departure Runway Assignments with Machine Learning

machine learning↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Using Coordinated, Multi-Agent Platforms for Dynamic Ocean Worlds Science

Planetary science missions have the opportunity to enhance science return through deployment of autonomous capabilities designed to dynamically respond to new information. Future outer solar system missions to ocean worlds in particular would benefit from this technology - intelligent science payloads (ISP) - because it would allow for a coordinated, near real-time response to ephemeral ‘events’ such as plumes, tectonism, surface implantation, volatile releases, thermal and magnetic anomalies, or radiation, as well as increasing the cadence and coverage of data collection. Prioritization and decision-making frameworks from ISP could be deployed at various scales - from analysis onboard a spacecraft with multiple instruments – to coordinated analyses among separate spacecraft in an e.g., distributed systems mission (DSM) composed of multiple SmallSats. Goddard’s Intelligent Science Payload team is developing an agile autonomous architecture for an icy ocean worlds DSM concept. Our goals are to coordinate data collection and onboard data analysis, and to make autonomous decisions for new data collection and analysis based on science priorities between multiple spacecraft with variable instrumentation and orbits. We use a range of data analysis tools to coordinate the DSM response, spanning from observations of data over a specified threshold to more computationally intensive machine learning algorithms (ML). ML algorithms here currently focus on determining the composition of an ocean world using mass spectrometry, and specifically methods for understanding ‘novelties’ and potential biosignatures. These algorithms could be used to quickly process and analyze onboard data that would be significantly delayed in downlink due to long communication delays for outer solar system missions in order to make dynamic science observations. Our ocean worlds case study ISP architecture is intended as an ‘agile’ and modular framework that could be used as a whole or as particular modules based on mission needs.

Distributed Systems↗

DOE OSTI2022

Shipping regulations lead to large reduction in cloud perturbations

Global shipping accounts for 13% of global emissions of SO2, which, once oxidized to sulfate aerosol, acts to cool the planet both directly by scattering sunlight and indirectly by increasing the albedo of clouds. This cooling due to sulfate aerosol offsets some of the warming effect of greenhouse gasses and is the largest uncertainty in determining the change in the Earth’s radiative balance by human activity. Ship tracks—the visible manifestation of the indirect of effect of ship emissions on clouds as quasi-linear features—have long provided an opportunity to quantify these effects. However, they have been arduous to catalog and typically studied only in particular regions for short periods of time. Using a machine-learning algorithm to automate their detection we catalog more than 1 million ship tracks to provide a global climatology. We use this to investigate the effect of stringent fuel regulations introduced by the International Maritime Organization in 2020 on their global prevalence since then, while accounting for the disruption in global commerce caused by COVID-19. We find a marked, but clearly nonlinear, decline in ship tracks globally: An 80% reduction in SO x emissions causes only a 25% reduction in the number of tracks detected.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Adaptive Stress Testing of Collision Avoidance Systems for Small UASs with Deep Reinforcement Learning

The next-generation Airborne Collision Avoidance System for smaller UASs (ACAS sXu) is currently being developed and tested by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to provide detect-and-avoid capability for small unmanned aircraft operating beyond line-of-sight. Due to the complexity and safety-critical nature of the system, safety validation is important not only for the certification of the final system, but also for informing changes during the iterative development process. In this paper, we analyze a prototype of ACAS sXu in simulated aircraft encounters to discover scenarios of small near mid-air collisions (sNMACs), an important safety event in which two aircraft come closer than 50 feet horizontally and 15 feet vertically. Due to the size and complexity of the system as well as rarity of sNMAC events, traditional methods such as Monte Carlo testing often require informed setup and targeting to elicit failures. However, such a dependence on domain knowledge can be incompatible with the independent verification and validation (IV&V) process, the aim of which is to discover unforeseen issues. To address these challenges, we apply an accelerated validation method called adaptive stress testing (AST) to find the most likely sNMAC scenarios without reliance on system introspection. AST uses reinforcement learning to adapt the search towards the most promising areas of the search space as it progresses. We use a state-of-the-art deep reinforcement learning algorithm, proximate policy optimization, to more efficiently search the large and continuous state space. We find that this approach significantly improves the performance of AST compared to a prior approach based on Monte Carlo tree search. We perform experiments using AST to find sNMAC events under various encounter configurations, varying parameters pertaining to dynamics and coordination. Our experiments show AST to be very effective at finding sNMAC scenarios. We summarize our findings, presenting high-level categories of discovered sNMACs and specific examples of encounters in each category.

aircraft collision avoidance↗

DOE OSTI2018

A hybrid building thermal modeling approach for predicting temperatures in typical, detached, two-story houses

Within the residential building sector, the air-conditioning (AC) load is the main target for peak load shifting and reduction since it is the largest contributor to peak demand. By leveraging its power flexibility, residential AC is a good candidate to provide building demand response and peak load shifting. For realization of accurate and reliable control of AC loads, a building thermal model, which characterizes the properties of a building’s envelope and its thermal mass, is an essential component for accurate indoor temperature or cooling/heating demand prediction. Building thermal models include two types: “Forward” and “Data-Driven”. Due to time-saving and cost-effective characteristics, different data-driven models have been developed in a number of research studies. However, few developed models can predict temperatures in respective zones of a multiple-zone building with an open air path between zones e.g., an open stairwell connecting two floors of a home. In this research, a novel hybrid modeling approach is proposed to predict the average indoor air temperatures of both the upstairs and downstairs. This “hybrid” solution integrates both gray-box, i.e. RC model and black-box models. A developed RC model is used to predict the building mean temperature, and black-box model, in which the supervised machine learning algorithms are leveraged, is used to predict the temperature difference between the downstairs and upstairs. Compared with the measured data from a real house, the results obtained have acceptable/satisfactory accuracy. The method proposed in this study integrates the advantages of black-box and gray-box modeling. As a result, it can be used as a reliable alternative to predict the average temperatures in respective floors of typical detached two-story houses.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2017

Toward a Visualization-Supported Workflow for Cyber Alert Management using Threat Models and Human-Centered Design

Cyber network analysts follow complex processes in their investigations of potential threats to their network. Much research is dedicated to providing automated tool support in the effort to make their tasks more efficient, accurate, and timely. This tool support comes in a variety of implementations from machine learning algorithms that monitor streams of data to visual analytic environments for exploring rich and noisy data sets. Cyber analysts, however, often speak of a need for tools which help them merge the data they already have and help them establish appropriate baselines against which to compare potential anomalies. Furthermore, existing threat models that cyber analysts regularly use to structure their investigation are not often leveraged in support tools. We report on our work with cyber analysts to understand they analytic process and how one such model, the MITRE ATT&CK Matrix [32], is used to structure their analytic thinking. We present our efforts to map specific data needed by analysts into the threat model to inform our eventual visualization designs. We examine data mapping for gaps where the threat model is under-supported by either data or tools. We discuss these gaps as potential design spaces for future research efforts. We also discuss the design of a prototype tool that combines machine-learning and visualization components to support cyber analysts working with this threat model.

Cyber Security↗