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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 847 records · Page 47
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Use-Inspired, Process-Oriented GCM Selection: Prioritizing Models for Regional Dynamical Downscaling

Dynamical downscaling is a crucial process for providing regional climate information for broad uses, using coarser-resolution global models to drive higher-resolution regional climate simulations. The pool of global climate models (GCMs) providing the fields needed for dynamical downscaling has increased from the previous generations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). However, with limited computational resources, the need for prioritizing the GCMs for subsequent downscaling studies remains. GCM selection for dynamical downscaling should focus on evaluating processes relevant for providing boundary conditions to the regional models and be inspired by regional uses such as the response of extremes to changes in the boundary conditions. This leads to the need for metrics representing processes of relevance to diverse stakeholders and subregions of a domain. Procedures to account for metric redundancy and the statistical distinguishability of GCM rankings are required. Further, procedures for selecting realizations from ensembles of top-performing GCM simulations can be used to span the range of climate change signals in multiple ways. As a result, distinct weighting of metrics and prioritization of particular realizations may depend on user needs. We provide high-level guidelines for such region-specific evaluations and address how CMIP7 might enable dynamical downscaling of a representative sample of high-quality models across representative shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2012

TC-Permitting GCM Simulations of Hurricane Frequency Response to Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies Projected for the Late-Twenty-First Century

A tropical cyclone–permitting global atmospheric model is used to explore the hurricane frequency response to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies generated by coupled models for the late-twenty-first century. Results are presented for SST anomalies averaged over 18 models as well as from 8 individual models. For each basin, there exists large intermodel spread in the magnitude and even the sign of the frequency response among the different SST projections. These sizable variations in response are explored to understand features of SST distributions that are important for the basin-wide hurricane responses. In the North Atlantic, the eastern Pacific, and the southern Indian basins, most (72%–86%) of the intermodel variance in storm frequency response can be explained by a simple relative SST index defined as a basin’s storm development region SST minus the tropical mean SST. The explained variance is significantly lower in the South Pacific (48%) and much lower in the western Pacific basin (27%). Several atmospheric parameters are utilized to probe changes in tropical atmospheric circulation and thermodynamical properties relevant to storm genesis in the model. While all present strong correlation to storm response in some basins, a parameter-measuring tropospheric convective mass flux stands out as skillful in explaining the simulated differences for all basins. Globally, in addition to a modest reduction of total storm frequency, the simulations exhibit a small, but robust eastward and poleward migration of genesis frequency in both the North Pacific and the North Atlantic Oceans. Finally, this eastward migration of storms can also be explained by changes in convection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Plant Physiology Increases the Magnitude and Spread of the Transient Climate Response to CO 2 in CMIP6 Earth System Models

Increasing concentrations of CO 2 in the atmosphere influence climate both through CO 2 ’s role as a greenhouse gas and through its impact on plants. Plants respond to atmospheric CO 2 concentrations in several ways that can alter surface energy and water fluxes and thus surface climate, including changes in stomatal conductance, water use, and canopy leaf area. These plant physiological responses are already embedded in most Earth system models, and a robust literature demonstrates that they can affect global-scale temperature. However, the physiological contribution to transient warming has yet to be assessed systematically in Earth system models. Here this gap is addressed using carbon cycle simulations from phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) to isolate the radiative and physiological contributions to the transient climate response (TCR), which is defined as the change in globally averaged near-surface air temperature during the 20-yr window centered on the time of CO 2 doubling relative to preindustrial CO 2 concentrations. In CMIP6 models, the physiological effect contributes 0.12°C ( σ : 0.09°C; range: 0.02°–0.29°C) of warming to the TCR, corresponding to 6.1% of the full TCR ( σ : 3.8%; range: 1.4%–13.9%). Moreover, variation in the physiological contribution to the TCR across models contributes disproportionately more to the intermodel spread of TCR estimates than it does to the mean. The largest contribution of plant physiology to CO 2 -forced warming—and the intermodel spread in warming—occurs over land, especially in forested regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Extratropical Cloud Feedback Constrained by Cloud Sources and Sinks in Cyclones

Constraining cloud feedback in global climate models (GCMs) using observations is important for establishing accurate predictions of future climate. Uncertainty in shortwave cloud feedback (SW FB ) dominates uncertainty in total cloud feedback. Recent studies show a shift toward more positive extratropical SW FB in the latest generations of GCMs leading to the emergence of very high equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). In this study, we use precipitation efficiency and albedo susceptibility to constrain liquid water path (LWP) response to warming and SW FB in the Southern Ocean (SO; 50°–80°S). We analyze precipitation in extratropical cyclones (ECs) to learn about extratropical condensed water sink processes, combined with observations of clouds and moisture convergence, and use the analysis to better understand and constrain SW FB . We utilize a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) hosted in the Community Atmosphere Model, version 6 (CAM6), to provide a constraint on SW FB based on observations from Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) and Multisensor Advanced Climatology of LWP (MAC-LWP). We apply Gaussian process regression to emulate the model response to all parameters perturbed in the PPE. Confronting the emulator output with observations provides a new estimated response of Earth to global warming. Furthermore, our new estimates of SO LWP reduce the PPE range by 66%–72%, which results in a shortwave cloud radiative effect estimated range that is 27%–34% less than the PPE range. Observations suggest a more positive SO SW FB than the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2), and consequently do not reject the high climate sensitivity GCMs emerging from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6).

Atmosphere↗
DOE OSTI2014

Guidelines for effective radiation transport for cable SGEMP modeling

This report describes experiences gained in performing radiation transport computations with the SCEPTRE radiation transport code for System Generated ElectroMagnetic Pulse (SGEMP) applications. SCEPTRE is a complex code requiring a fairly sophisticated user to run the code effectively, so this report provides guidance for analysts interested in performing these types of calculations. One challenge in modeling coupled photon/electron transport for SGEMP is to provide a spatial mesh that is sufficiently resolved to accurately model surface charge emission and charge deposition near material interfaces. The method that has been most commonly used to date to compute cable SGEMP typically requires a sub-micron mesh size near material interfaces, which may be difficult for meshing software to provide for complex geometries. We present here an alternative method for computing cable SGEMP that appears to substantially relax this requirement. The report also investigates the effect of refining the energy mesh and increasing the order of the angular approximation to provide some guidance on determining reasonable parameters for the energy/angular approximation needed for x-ray environments. Conclusions for γ-ray environments may be quite different and will be treated in a subsequent report. In the course of the energy-mesh refinement studies, a bug in the cross-section generation software was discovered that may cause underprediction of the result by as much as an order of magnitude for the test problem studied here, when the electron energy group widths are much smaller than those for the photons. Results will be presented and compared using cross sections generated before and after the fix. We also describe adjoint modeling, which provides sensitivity of the total charge drive to the source energy and angle of incidence, which is quite useful for comparing the effect of changing the source environment and for determining most stressing angle of incidence and source energy. This report focusses on cable SGEMP applications, but many of the conclusions will be directly applicable for box Internal ElectroMagnetic Pulse (IEMP) modeling as well.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2016

Final Technical Report for Department of Energy Award DE-SC0006625, “Predictability of the carbon-climate system on seasonal to decadal time scales.”

The project aims to investigate the feasibility of advancing our understanding of the carbon cycle, using a carbon-weather data assimilation system that updates the modeled carbon dioxide concentration and atmospheric circulation every six hours using CO 2 data (from the OCO 2 satellite) and weather data. At the core of the system is the DOE-NCAR-CAM5fv global circulation model coupled to the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Data Assimilation Testbed, running an ensemble of 30 models. This combination provides realistic vertical carbon dioxide gradients and conservation of dry air mass. A global four-dimensional distribution of atmospheric CO 2 concentration is produced. Our results show (1) that OCO 2 total precipitable water data are reliable and provide valuable uncertainty information for the OCO 2 data assimilation; and (2) that our approach is a promising method for monitoring national carbon dioxide emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Joint modeling of water and energy for resilience and flexibility

This white paper addresses the intersection of energy and water resources for potable water, considering energy-for-water through joint systems modeling. Specifically, we focus on the opportunities to promote joint resilience in water and power systems through coupled modeling to inform decision-makers.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Emergency Asset Positioning for Resilient Transmission Grid Operation

In this paper we study a problem of hurricane emergency preparedness via placement of emergency generation assets prior to its strike. We present a two-stage stochastic model for choosing locations and quantities of emergency storage to help support the power grid through a hurricane event. The expectation of losses in our two-stage model is estimated using the sample average approximation. We construct damage scenarios for sample average approximation using WIND Toolkit meteorological data and fragility curves of various electric grid components. We demonstrate the efficacy of our two-stage planning model by simulating operations during Hurricane Dolly on the 2000-bus transmission test system. Our model, coupled with our scenario selection strategy, is effective at mitigating loss of load when compared to a model without emergency generation assets placed prior to an extreme event.

emergency preparedness↗
DOE OSTI2023

Emergency Generation Asset Positioning for Resilient Transmission Grid Operation: Preprint

In this paper we study a problem of hurricane emergency preparedness via placement of emergency generation assets prior to its strike. We present a two-stage stochastic model for choosing locations and quantities of emergency storage to help support the power grid through a hurricane event. The expectation of losses in our two-stage model is estimated using the sample average approximation. We construct damage scenarios for sample average approximation using WIND Toolkit meteorological data and fragility curves of various electric grid components. We demonstrate the efficacy of our two-stage planning model by simulating operations during Hurricane Dolly on the 2000-bus transmission test system. Our model, coupled with our scenario selection strategy, is effective at mitigating loss of load when compared to a model without emergency generation assets placed prior to an extreme event.

emergency preparedness↗
DOE OSTI2016

The CMIP6 Sea-Ice Model Intercomparison Project (SIMIP): Understanding sea ice through climate-model simulations

A better understanding of the role of sea ice for the changing climate of our planet is the central aim of the diagnostic Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6)-endorsed Sea-Ice Model Intercomparison Project (SIMIP). To reach this aim, SIMIP requests sea-ice-related variables from climate-model simulations that allow for a better understanding and, ultimately, improvement of biases and errors in sea-ice simulations with large-scale climate models. This then allows us to better understand to what degree CMIP6 model simulations relate to reality, thus improving our confidence in answering sea-ice-related questions based on these simulations. Furthermore, the SIMIP protocol provides a standard for sea-ice model output that will streamline and hence simplify the analysis of the simulated sea-ice evolution in research projects independent of CMIP. To reach its aims, SIMIP provides a structured list of model output that allows for an examination of the three main budgets that govern the evolution of sea ice, namely the heat budget, the momentum budget, and the mass budget. Furthermore, we explain the aims of SIMIP in more detail and outline how its design allows us to answer some of the most pressing questions that sea ice still poses to the international climate-research community.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Modeling and Field Test Planning Activities in Support of Disposal of Heat-Generating Waste in Salt

The modeling efforts in support of the field test planning conducted at LBNL leverage on recent developments of tools for modeling coupled thermal-hydrological-mechanical-chemical (THMC) processes in salt and their effect on brine migration at high temperatures. This work includes development related to, and implementation of, essential capabilities, as well as testing the model against relevant information and published experimental data related to the fate and transport of water. These are modeling capabilities that will be suitable for assisting in the design of field experiment, especially related to multiphase flow processes coupled with mechanical deformations, at high temperature. In this report, we first examine previous generic repository modeling results, focusing on the first 20 years to investigate the expected evolution of the different processes that could be monitored in a full-scale heater experiment, and then present new results from ongoing modeling of the Thermal Simulation for Drift Emplacement (TSDE) experiment, a heater experiment on the in-drift emplacement concept at the Asse Mine, Germany, and provide an update on the ongoing model developments for modeling brine migration. LBNL also supported field test planning activities via contributions to and technical review of framework documents and test plans, as well as participation in workshops associated with field test planning.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Precision e + e − hemisphere masses in the dijet region with power corrections

We derive high-precision results for the e + e − heavy jet mass (HJM) dσ/dρ and dihemisphere mass (DHM) d 2 σ/(ds 1 ds 2 ) distributions, for s 1 ~ s 2 , in the dijet region. New results include: i) the N 3 LL resummation for HJM of large logarithms ln n (ρ) at small ρ including the exact two-loop non-global hemisphere soft function, the 4-loop cusp anomalous dimension and the 3-loop hard and jet functions, ii) N 3 LL results for DHM with resummation of logarithms ln(s 1,2 /Q 2 ) when there is no large separation between s 1 and s 2 , iii) profile functions for HJM to give results simultaneously valid in the peak and tail regions, iv) a complete two-dimensional basis of non-perturbative functions which can be used for double differential observables, that are needed for both HJM and DHM in the peak region, and v) an implementation of renormalon subtractions for large-angle soft radiation to $\mathcal{O}$ (α$^{3}_{s}$) together with a resummation of the additional large ln(Qρ/Λ QCD ) logarithms. Here Q is the e + e − center-of-mass energy. Our resummation results are combined with known fixed-order $\mathcal{O}$ (α$^{3}_{s}$) results and we discuss the convergence and remaining perturbative uncertainty in the cross section. We also prove that, at order 1/Q, the first moment of the HJM distribution involves an additional non-perturbative parameter compared to the power correction that shifts the tail of the spectrum (where 1 ≫ ρ ≫ Λ QCD /Q). This differs from thrust where a single non-perturbative parameter at order 1/Q describes both the first moment and the tail, and it disfavors models of power corrections employing a single non-perturbative parameter, such as the low-scale effective coupling model. In this paper we focus only on the dijet region, not the far-tail distribution for ρ ≳ 0.2 beyond which the trijet factorization and resummation become important.

Factorization↗
DOE OSTI2025

Overestimated natural biological nitrogen fixation translates to an exaggerated CO 2 fertilization effect in Earth system models

CO 2 fertilization of the terrestrial biosphere is limited by nitrogen. Biological nitrogen fixation (BNF) is the dominant natural nitrogen source to the terrestrial biosphere and can alleviate nitrogen limitation but is poorly constrained in Earth system models (ESMs). Here, in this study, we compare terrestrial BNF from an ensemble of ESMs of the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project to a new global synthesis of observations across natural and agricultural biomes. We find that compared to observations, ESMs underestimate agricultural BNF but overestimate natural BNF in the present day by over 50%. Natural BNF is overestimated in the most productive ecosystems that contribute most to the terrestrial carbon sink (forests and grasslands). ESMs with different BNF representations yield a range of BNF responses to CO 2 enrichment. Some ESMs with phenomenological representations of BNF predict a natural BNF increase in response to a doubling of CO 2 that aligns with a meta-analysis of CO 2 enrichment experiments (31% increase) but fail to account for the substantial carbon cost of BNF. In contrast, ESMs with mechanistic representations of BNF account for its carbon cost as well as its regulation by nitrogen limitation but overestimate the BNF response to a doubling of CO 2 (135% increase). Overall, all current BNF representations in ESMs fall short of fully capturing its response to rising atmospheric CO 2 . Finally, we find a positive correlation between modeled present-day natural BNF and the CO 2 fertilization effect across ESMs, suggesting that overestimated natural BNF translates to an exaggerated CO 2 fertilization effect of approximately 11% in ESMs.

Biological nitrogen fixation↗
DOE OSTI2019

Modeling anaerobic soil organic carbon decomposition in Arctic polygon tundra: insights into soil geochemical influences on carbon mineralization

Abstract. Rapid warming of Arctic ecosystems exposes soil organic matter (SOM) to accelerated microbial decomposition, potentially leading to increased emissions of carbon dioxide ( CO 2 ) and methane ( CH 4 ) that have a positive feedback on global warming. Current estimates of the magnitude and form of carbon emissions from Earth system models include significant uncertainties, partially due to the oversimplified representation of geochemical constraints on microbial decomposition. Here, we coupled modeling principles developed in different disciplines, including a thermodynamically based microbial growth model for methanogenesis and iron reduction, a pool-based model to represent upstream carbon transformations, and a humic ion-binding model for dynamic pH simulation to build a more versatile carbon decomposition model framework that can be applied to soils under varying redox conditions. This new model framework was parameterized and validated using synthesized anaerobic incubation data from permafrost-affected soils along a gradient of fine-scale thermal and hydrological variabilities across Arctic polygonal tundra. The model accurately simulated anaerobic CO 2 production and its temperature sensitivity using data on labile carbon pools and fermentation rates as model constraints. CH 4 production is strongly influenced by water content, pH, methanogen biomass, and presence of competing electron acceptors, resulting in high variability in its temperature sensitivity. This work provides new insights into the interactions of SOM pools, temperature increase, soil geochemical feedbacks, and resulting CO 2 and CH 4 production. The proposed anaerobic carbon decomposition framework presented here builds a mechanistic link between soil geochemistry and carbon mineralization, making it applicable over a wide range of soils under different environmental settings.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Evaluation of NorESM-OC (versions 1 and 1.2), the ocean carbon-cycle stand-alone configuration of the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM1)

Idealised and hindcast simulations performed with the stand-alone ocean carbon-cycle configuration of the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM-OC) are described and evaluated. We present simulation results of three different model configurations (two different model versions at different grid resolutions) using two different atmospheric forcing data sets. Model version NorESM-OC1 corresponds to the version that is included in the NorESM-ME1 fully coupled model, which participated in CMIP5. The main update between NorESM-OC1 and NorESM-OC1.2 is the addition of two new options for the treatment of sinking particles. We find that using a constant sinking speed, which has been the standard in NorESM's ocean carbon cycle module HAMOCC (HAMburg Ocean Carbon Cycle model), does not transport enough particulate organic carbon (POC) into the deep ocean below approximately 2000 m depth. The two newly implemented parameterisations, a particle aggregation scheme with prognostic sinking speed, and a simpler scheme that uses a linear increase in the sinking speed with depth, provide better agreement with observed POC fluxes. Additionally, reduced deep ocean biases of oxygen and remineralised phosphate indicate a better performance of the new parameterisations. For model version 1.2, a re-tuning of the ecosystem parameterisation has been performed, which (i) reduces previously too high primary production at high latitudes, (ii) consequently improves model results for surface nutrients, and (iii) reduces alkalinity and dissolved inorganic carbon biases at low latitudes. We use hindcast simulations with prescribed observed and constant (pre-industrial) atmospheric CO 2 concentrations to derive the past and contemporary ocean carbon sink. As a result, for the period 1990–1999 we find an average ocean carbon uptake ranging from 2.01 to 2.58 Pg C yr -1 depending on model version, grid resolution, and atmospheric forcing data set.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2012

PHISICS multi-group transport neutronic capabilities for RELAP5

PHISICS is a neutronic code system currently under development at INL. Its goal is to provide state of the art simulation capability to reactor designers. This paper reports on the effort of coupling this package to the thermal hydraulic system code RELAP5. This will enable full prismatic core and system modeling and the possibility to model coupled (thermal-hydraulics and neutronics) problems with more options for 3D neutron kinetics, compared to the existing diffusion theory neutron kinetics module in RELAP5 (NESTLE). The paper describes the capabilities of the coupling and illustrates them with a set of sample problems. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Model for photothermal ionization and molecular recombination during pulsed ablation of polyethylene

The surface erosion of polyethylene is studied under conditions characteristic of extremely high-rate heating expected in laser-driven and high energy density experiments. A coupled model for photoionization and volumetric photothermal degradation of polyethylene is developed that includes finite rate chemistry and molecular recombination of radicals. First, the model is used to explore the evolution of radicals and hydrocarbons during isochoric heating, for which it is found that polyethylene is not in chemical equilibrium for rates >108K/s. Then, the model is used to explore the cooperativity between photoionization and photothermal ionization during one-dimensional ablation from a pulsed heating source, accounting for coupled energy deposition, thermokinetics, thermochemistry, hydrodynamics, mechanics, and thermal conduction in the ALEGRA multi-physics code. The ablation depth per energy pulse is found to agree with an analytical model for instantaneous energy deposition and absent molecular recombination or photoionization. Otherwise, molecular recombination of radicals reduces the depth of ablation per pulse, owing to thermal stabilization on forming branched molecules. Radical formation through photoionization can be compensated for by recombination, but it accelerates ablation at high enough photoionization rates. Finally, the influence of molecular recombination on the ablation depth is found to decrease for long pulses, owing to decreased recombination reaction rates at lower vapor densities near the ablated surface. These and other findings highlight competition between the processes of scission, recombination, and photoionization during pulsed ablation of polyethylene.

Moore, N. W. (ORCID:0000000272259674)↗
DOE OSTI2015

MODELING OF THE GROUNDWATER TRANSPORT AROUND A DEEP BOREHOLE NUCLEAR WASTE REPOSITORY

The concept of disposal of high-level nuclear waste in deep boreholes drilled into crystalline bedrock is gaining renewed interest and consideration as a viable mined repository alternative. A large amount of work on conceptual borehole design and preliminary performance assessment has been performed by researchers at MIT, Sandia National Laboratories, SKB (Sweden), and others. Much of this work relied on analytical derivations or, in a few cases, on weakly coupled models of heat, water, and radionuclide transport in the rock. Detailed numerical models are necessary to account for the large heterogeneity of properties (e.g., permeability and salinity vs. depth, diffusion coefficients, etc.) that would be observed at potential borehole disposal sites. A derivation of the FALCON code (Fracturing And Liquid CONvection) was used for the thermal-hydrologic modeling. This code solves the transport equations in porous media in a fully coupled way. The application leverages the flexibility and strengths of the MOOSE framework, developed by Idaho National Laboratory. The current version simulates heat, fluid, and chemical species transport in a fully coupled way allowing the rigorous evaluation of candidate repository site performance. This paper mostly focuses on the modeling of a deep borehole repository under realistic conditions, including modeling of a finite array of boreholes surrounded by undisturbed rock. The decay heat generated by the canisters diffuses into the host rock. Water heating can potentially lead to convection on the scale of thousands of years after the emplacement of the fuel. This convection is tightly coupled to the transport of the dissolved salt, which can suppress convection and reduce the release of the radioactive materials to the aquifer. The purpose of this work has been to evaluate the importance of the borehole array spacing and find the conditions under which convective transport can be ruled out as a radionuclide transport mechanism. Preliminary results show that modeling of the borehole array, including the surrounding rock, predicts convective flow in the system with physical velocities of the order of 10-5 km/yr over 105 years. This results in an escape length on the order of kilometers, which is comparable to the repository depth. However, a correct account of the salinity effects reduces convection velocity and escape length of the radionuclides from the repository.

Modeling↗