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At least 847 records · Page 47

Design and analysis of a wake steering controller with wind direction variability

Wind farm control strategies are being developed to mitigate wake losses in wind farms, increasing energy production. Wake steering is a type of wind farm control in which a wind turbine's yaw position is misaligned from the wind direction, causing its wake to deflect away from downstream turbines. Current modeling tools used to optimize and estimate energy gains from wake steering are designed to represent wakes for fixed wind directions. However, wake steering controllers must operate in dynamic wind conditions and a turbine's yaw position cannot perfectly track changing wind directions. Research has been conducted on robust wake steering control optimized for variable wind directions. In this paper, the design and analysis of a wake steering controller with wind direction variability is presented for a two-turbine array using the FLOw Redirection and Induction in Steady State (FLORIS) control-oriented wake model. First, the authors propose a method for modeling the turbulent and low-frequency components of the wind direction, where the slowly varying wind direction serves as the relevant input to the wake model. Next, we explain a procedure for finding optimal yaw offsets for dynamic wind conditions considering both wind direction and yaw position uncertainty. We then performed simulations with the optimal yaw offsets applied using a realistic yaw offset controller in conjunction with a baseline yaw controller, showing good agreement with the predicted energy gain using the probabilistic model. Using the Gaussian wake model in FLORIS as an example, we compared the performance of yaw offset controllers optimized for static and dynamic wind conditions for different turbine spacings and turbulence intensity values, assuming uniformly distributed wind directions. For a spacing of five rotor diameters and a turbulence intensity of 10 %, robust yaw offsets optimized for variable wind directions yielded an energy gain equivalent to 3.24 % of wake losses recovered, compared to 1.42 % of wake losses recovered with yaw offsets optimized for static wind directions. In general, accounting for wind direction variability in the yaw offset optimization process was found to improve energy production more as the separation distance increased, whereas the relative improvement remained roughly the same for the range of turbulence intensity values considered.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

TRANSP-based Optimization Towards Tokamak Scenario Development

An optimization approach that incorporates the predictive transport code TRANSP is proposed for tokamak scenario development. Optimization methods are often employed to develop open-loop control strategies to aid access to high performance tokamak scenarios. In general, the optimization approaches use control-oriented models, i.e. models that are reduced in complexity and prediction accuracy as compared to physics-oriented transport codes such as TRANSP. In the presented approach, an optimization procedure using the TRANSP code to simulate the tokamak plasma is considered for improved predictive capabilities. As a test case, the neutral beam injection (NBI) power is optimized to develop a control strategy that maximizes the non-inductive current fraction during the ramp-up phase for NSTX-U. Simulation studies towards the achievement of non-inductive ramp up in NSTX-U have already been carried out with the TRANSP code. The optimization-based approach proposed in this work is used to maximize the non-inductive current fraction during ramp-up in NSTX-U, demonstrating that the scenario development task can be automated. An additional test case considers optimization of the current ramp rate in DIII-D for obtaining a stationary plasma characterized bya flat loop voltage profile in the flattop phase.

DIII-D↗

A comparative study of machine learning models for predicting the state of reactive mixing

Mixing phenomena are important mechanisms controlling flow, species transport, and reaction processes in fluids and porous media. Accurate predictions of reactive mixing are critical for many Earth and environmental science problems such as contaminant fate and remediation, macroalgae growth, and plankton biomass evolution. Here, to investigate the evolution of mixing dynamics under different scenarios (e.g., anisotropy, fluctuating velocity fields), a finite-element-based numerical model was built to solve the fast, irreversible bimolecular reaction-diffusion equations to simulate a range of reactive-mixing scenarios. A total of 2,315 simulations were performed using different sets of model input parameters comprising various spatial scales of vortex structures in the velocity field, time-scales associated with velocity oscillations, the perturbation parameter for the vortex-based velocity, anisotropic dispersion contrast (i.e., ratio of longitudinal-to-transverse dispersion), and molecular diffusion. The outputs comprised concentration profiles of reactants and products. The inputs to and outputs from these simulations were concatenated into feature and label matrices, respectively, to train 20 different machine learning (ML) models intended to emulate system behavior. These 20 ML emulators, based on linear methods, Bayesian methods, ensemble learning methods, and multilayer perceptrons (MLPs), were trained to classify the state of mixing and predict three quantities of interest (QoIs) characterizing species production, decay (i.e., average concentration, square of average concentration), and degree of mixing (i.e., variances of species concentration). Unsurprisingly, linear classifiers and regressors failed to reproduce the QoIs; however, ensemble methods (classifiers and regressors) and the MLP model accurately classified the state of reactive mixing and the QoIs. Among ensemble methods, random forest and decision-tree-based AdaBoost faithfully predicted the QoIs. At run time, trained ML emulators produced results times faster than the finite-element simulations. Due to their low computational expense and high accuracy, ensemble and MLP models are excellent emulators for these numerical simulations and great utilities in uncertainty quantification exercises, which can require 1,000s of forward model runs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Physically-based control-oriented modeling for turbocharged stoichiometric spark-ignited engine with cooled EGR and flexible VVT systems

Accurate estimation and prediction of engine gas exchange system and in-cylinder conditions are critical for spark-ignited engine control and diagnostic algorithm development. In this paper, a physically-based, control-oriented model for a 2.8 l turbocharged, variable valve timing (VVT) and low pressure (LP) exhaust gas recirculation (EGR)-utilizing SI engine was developed. The model includes the impact of modulation to any combination of 10 actuators, including the throttle valve, compressor bypass valve, fueling rate, waste-gate, LP EGR valve, number of deactivated cylinders, intake valve open (IVO) timing, intake valve close (IVC) timing, exhaust valve open (EVO) timing and exhaust valve close (EVC) timing. The accuracy of the model in capturing engine dynamics was demonstrated by validating it against high-fidelity engine GT-Power simulation results for various drive cycles, particularly emphasizing elevated loads. In comparison to the open literature, novel contributions of the effort described in this paper includes in-cylinder gas composition modeling and turbine-out pressure estimation.

Zhang, Xu↗

Hybridization of IMC and PID control structures based on filtered GPC using genetic algorithm

Classical and advanced hybridization methods are employed in the control literature to calibrate the tuning parameters of internal model control (IMC) and proportional-integral-derivative (PID) controllers. This paper presents an alternative tuning design for the generalized predictive controller (GPC) that is based on both the positional process model and cost function. The proposed method involves the selection of an integral polynomial weighting filter for reference and output signals to deal with reference tracking, disturbance rejection, model-plant mismatch (MPM), minimum control energy and closed-loop robustness. The filter positional GPC (FP-GPC) obtained is transformed into a two-degree-of-freedom polynomial filtered RST structure and then into filtered internal model control (F-IMC) and PID controllers. Also, a multi-objective optimization based on genetic algorithm is applied to tune the filter parameters. Numerical and experimental essays show the effectiveness of the proposed control methodology.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Arbitrary electro-optic bandwidth and frequency control in lithium niobate optical resonators

In situ tunable photonic filters and memories are important for emerging quantum and classical optics technologies. However, most photonic devices have fixed resonances and bandwidths determined at the time of fabrication. Here we present an in situ tunable optical resonator on thin-film lithium niobate. By leveraging the linear electro-optic effect, we demonstrate widely tunable control over resonator frequency and bandwidth on two different devices. We observe up to ∼50 × tuning in the bandwidth over ∼50 V with linear frequency control of ∼230 MHz/V. We also develop a closed-form model predicting the tuning behavior of the device. This paves the way for rapid phase and amplitude control over light transmitted through our device.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A Learning Framework for Control-Oriented Modeling of Buildings

Buildings consume a significant amount of energy worldwide. Several building optimization and control use cases require models of energy consumption which are control oriented, have high predictive capability, imposes minimal data pre-processing requirements, and have the ability to be adapted continuously to account for changing conditions as new data becomes available. Data driven modeling techniques, that have been investigated so far, while promising in the context of buildings, have been unable to simultaneously satisfy all the requirements mentioned above. In this context, deep learning techniques such as Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) hold promise, empowered by advanced computational capabilities and big data opportunities. In this paper, we propose a deep learning based methodology for the development of control oriented models for building energy management and test in on data from a real building. Results show that the proposed methodology outperforms other data driven modeling techniques significantly. We perform a detailed analysis of the proposed methodology along dimensions such as topology, sensitivity, and downsampling. Lastly, we conclude by envisioning a building analytics suite empowered by the proposed deep framework, that can drive several use cases related to building energy management.

buildings↗

NREL RSF Energy Model 2011

Modern buildings are complex energy systems that must be controlled for energy efficiency. The Research Support Facility (RSF) at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has hundreds of controllers -- computers that communicate with the building's various control systems -- to control the building based on tens of thousands of variables and sensor points. These control strategies were designed for the RSF's systems to efficiently support research activities. Many events that affect energy use cannot be reliably predicted, but certain decisions (such as control strategies) must be made ahead of time. NREL researchers modeled the RSF systems to predict how they might perform. They then monitor these systems to understand how they are actually performing and reacting to the dynamic conditions of weather, occupancy, and maintenance. This submission includes the Energy Model from the RSF Systems Model. Comparing actual performance (metered) with expected performance (modeled) is key to understand corrective actions to ensure performance as originally intended. The Energy Model in this submission was made to model energy usage in the RSF and was compared to actual metered data to verify the model. Measured data and Weather data related to the RSF Systems Model can be found in the "Related Datasets" section of this submission.

2011↗

Predicting synthetic mRNA stability using massively parallel kinetic measurements, biophysical modeling, and machine learning

Abstract mRNA degradation is a central process that affects all gene expression levels, though it remains challenging to predict the stability of a mRNA from its sequence, due to the many coupled interactions that control degradation rate. Here, we carried out massively parallel kinetic decay measurements on over 50,000 bacterial mRNAs, using a learn-by-design approach to develop and validate a predictive sequence-to-function model of mRNA stability. mRNAs were designed to systematically vary translation rates, secondary structures, sequence compositions, G-quadruplexes, i-motifs, and RppH activity, resulting in mRNA half-lives from about 20 seconds to 20 minutes. We combined biophysical models and machine learning to develop steady-state and kinetic decay models of mRNA stability with high accuracy and generalizability, utilizing transcription rate models to identify mRNA isoforms and translation rate models to calculate ribosome protection. Overall, the developed model quantifies the key interactions that collectively control mRNA stability in bacterial operons and predicts how changing mRNA sequence alters mRNA stability, which is important when studying and engineering bacterial genetic systems.

Cetnar, Daniel P.↗

Results and lessons learned from accelerating radio frequency modeling using machine learning [slides]

The “advanced tokamak” reactor concept is a leading candidate for a steady state fusion pilot plant. An advanced tokamak (AT) sustains a majority of the required plasma current with effects resulting from maintenance of the peaked pressure at the device center. This current is augmented by auxiliary current drive sources. These auxiliary actuators may consist of neutral particle beams and/or radio frequency (RF) systems such as lower hybrid current drive (LHCD) and high harmonic fast wave (HHFW) current drive using radio and microwaves from antennas. The primary focus of this work is to develop models of RF current profile control suitable for use in integrated modeling frameworks and for real-time control in experiments. Direct physics models of RF current drive can be computationally intensive. In order to achieve predictive times appropriate for the thousands of calls needed in real-time control of experiments and for use in integrated models, we will apply modern machine learning (ML) techniques to accelerate these models and interpolate their results. To generate the fast and accurate models for use in control level algorithms and integrated modeling we need to replace present models with high dimensional interpolation of their results. We will perform additional simulations across a broader parameter range for EAST and other tokamaks in different physics regimes (Alcator C-Mod, DIII-D, WEST, CFETR, ARC, ITER) and combine them into a larger database for training and testing of the ML models. Further testing of the control level models with experimental current profile data from EAST and C-Mod tokamaks will provide additional confirmation of the control level model before integration in a tokamak control system or integrated modeling suite. ML will be used to optimize the selection of training data consisting of RF current driven at different values of density profile, temperature profile, plasma current, and wavenumber. ML will also be used to facilitate classification of current drive from these input data. The output of this effort will be a validated classifier capable of determining the current drive profiles for HHFW CD and LHCD on a mille-second timescale. This will provide a breakthrough capability enabling real-time control of RF driven current profiles in experiments including ITER ICRF and use integrated modeling frameworks requiring thousands of current profile calculations in discharge simulations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Can socio-economic indicators of vulnerability help predict spatial variations in the duration and severity of power outages due to tropical cyclones?

Abstract Tropical cyclones are the leading cause of major power outages in the U.S., and their effects can be devastating for communities. However, few studies have holistically examined the degree to which socio-economic variables can explain spatial variations in disruptions and reveal potential inequities thereof. Here, we apply machine learning techniques to analyze 20 tropical cyclones and predict county-level outage duration and percentage of customers losing power using a comprehensive set of weather, environmental, and socio-economic factors. Our models are able to accurately predict these outage response variables, but after controlling for the effects of weather conditions and environmental factors in the models, we find the effects of socio-economic variables to be largely immaterial. However, county-level data could be overlooking effects of socio-economic disparities taking place at more granular spatial scales, and we must remain aware of the fact that when faced with similar outage events, socio-economically vulnerable communities will still find it more difficult to cope with disruptions compared to less vulnerable ones.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NREL RSF Weather Data 2011

Modern buildings are complex energy systems that must be controlled for energy efficiency. The Research Support Facility (RSF) at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has hundreds of controllers -- computers that communicate with the building's various control systems -- to control the building based on tens of thousands of variables and sensor points. These control strategies were designed for the RSF's systems to efficiently support research activities. Many events that affect energy use cannot be reliably predicted, but certain decisions (such as control strategies) must be made ahead of time. NREL researchers modeled the RSF systems to predict how they might perform. They then monitor these systems to understand how they are actually performing and reacting to the dynamic conditions of weather, occupancy, and maintenance. This submission includes the Weather data form the RSF systems energy model. The weather data was used to contextualize and compare energy use data like heating and cooling. The weather data was also used by the RSF Energy Model to model the energy use of the RSF. Energy Model data and Measured Energy data related to the RSF Systems Model can be found in the "Related Datasets" section of this submission.

2011↗

IMPACTS OF SMALL COLUMN ION EXCHANGE STREAMS ON DWPF GLASS FORMULATION: KT08, KT09, AND KT10-SERIES GLASS COMPOSITIONS

This report is the fourth in a series of studies of the impacts of the addition of Crystalline Silicotitanate (CST) and Monosodium Titanate (MST) from the Small Column Ion Exchange (SCIX) process on the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) glass waste form and the applicability of the DWPF process control models. MST from the Salt Waste Processing Facility (SWPF) is also considered in the study. The KT08-series of glasses was designed to evaluate any impacts of the inclusion of uranium and thorium in glasses containing the SCIX components. The KT09-series of glasses was designed to study the effect of increasing Al{sub 2}O{sub 3} and K{sub 2}O concentrations on the propensity for crystallization of titanium containing phases in high TiO{sub 2} concentration glasses. Earlier work on the KT05-series glasses recommended that the impact of these two components be studied further. Increased Al{sub 2}O{sub 3} concentrations have been shown to improve the properties and performance of high waste loading glasses, and K{sub 2}O has been reported to improve the retention of TiO{sub 2} in silicate glasses. The KT10-series of compositions was designed to evaluate any impacts of the SCIX components at concentrations 50% higher than currently projected.a The glasses were fabricated in the laboratory and characterized to identify crystallization, to verify chemical compositions, to measure viscosity, and to measure durability. Liquidus temperature measurements for the KT10-series glasses are underway and will be reported separately. All but one of the KT08-series glasses were found to be amorphous by X-ray diffraction (XRD). One of the slowly cooled glasses contained a small amount of trevorite, which had no practical impact on the durability of the glass and is typically found in DWPF-type glasses. The measured Product Consistency Test (PCT) responses for the KT08-series glasses are well predicted by the DWPF models. The viscosities of the KT08-series glasses were generally well predicted by the DWPF model. No unexpected issues were encountered when uranium and thorium were added to the glasses with SCIX components. Increased Al{sub 2}O{sub 3} concentrations were not successful in preventing the formation of iron titanate crystals in the KT09-series glasses. Increased K{sub 2}O concentrations were successful in hindering the formation of iron titanates in some of the glasses after the canister centerline cooled (CCC) heat treatment. However, this result did not apply to all of the CCC versions of the glasses, indicating a compositional dependence of this effect. In addition, high concentrations of K{sub 2}O have been shown to hinder the ability of the DWPF durability and viscosity models to predict the performance of these glasses. The usefulness of increased K{sub 2}O concentrations in preventing the formation of iron titanates may therefore be limited. Further characterization was not performed for the KT09-series glasses since the type of crystallization formed was the characteristic of interest for these compositions. All of the KT10-series glasses were XRD amorphous, regardless of heat treatment. Chemical composition measurements showed that the glasses met the targeted concentrations for each oxide. In general, the measured PCT responses of the KT10-series glasses were well predicted by the DWPF models. The measured, normalized release values for silicon for some of the glasses fell above the 95% confidence interval for the predicted values; however, the PCT responses for these glasses remain considerably lower than that of the benchmark Environmental Assessment (EA) glass. The viscosities of the KT10-series glasses were generally well predicted by the DWPF model. The next step in this study will be to compile all of the data developed and further compare the measured properties and performance with those predicted by the current DWPF Product Composition Control System (PCCS) models. Recommendations will then be made as to which models, if any, may need to be modified in order to accommodate the material from SCIX into DWPF glass production.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

A test of the hierarchical model of litter decomposition

Our basic understanding of plant litter decomposition informs the assumptions underlying widely applied soil biogeochemical models, including those embedded in Earth system models. Confidence in projected carbon cycle–climate feedbacks therefore depends on accurate knowledge about the controls regulating the rate at which plant biomass is decomposed into products such as CO 2 . Here we test underlying assumptions of the dominant conceptual model of litter decomposition. The model posits that a primary control on the rate of decomposition at regional to global scales is climate (temperature and moisture), with the con- trolling effects of decomposers negligible at such broad spatial scales. Using a regional-scale litter decomposition experiment at six sites spanning from northern Sweden to southern France—and capturing both within and among site variation in putative controls—we find that contrary to predictions from the hierarchical model, decomposer (microbial) biomass strongly regulates decomposition at regional scales. Furthermore, the size of the microbial biomass dictates the absolute change in decomposition rates with changing climate variables. Our findings suggest the need for revision of the hierarchical model, with decomposers acting as both local- and broad-scale controls on litter decomposition rates, necessitating their explicit consideration in global biogeochemical models.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Design and analysis of a wake model for spatially heterogeneous flow

Abstract. Methods of turbine wake modeling are being developed to more accurately account for spatially variant atmospheric conditions within wind farms. Most current wake modeling utilities are designed to apply a uniform flow field to the entire domain of a wind farm. When this method is used, the accuracy of power prediction and wind farm controls can be compromised depending on the flow-field characteristics of a particular area. In an effort to improve strategies of wind farm wake modeling and power prediction, FLOw Redirection and Induction in Steady State (FLORIS) was developed to implement sophisticated methods of atmospheric characterization and power output calculation. In this paper, we describe an adapted FLORIS model that features spatial heterogeneity in flow-field characterization. This model approximates an observed flow field by interpolating from a set of atmospheric measurements that represent local weather conditions. The objective of this method is to capture heterogeneous atmospheric effects caused by site-specific terrain features, without explicitly modeling the geometry of the wind farm terrain. The implemented adaptations were validated by comparing the simulated power predictions generated from FLORIS to the actual recorded wind farm output from the supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) recordings and large eddy simulations (LESs). When comparing the performance of the proposed heterogeneous model to homogeneous FLORIS simulations, the results show a 14.6 % decrease for mean absolute error (MAE) in wind farm power output predictions for cases using wind farm SCADA data and a 18.9 % decrease in LES case studies. The results of these studies also indicate that the efficacy of the proposed modeling techniques may vary with differing site-specific operational conditions. This work quantifies the accuracy of wind plant power predictions under heterogeneous flow conditions and establishes best practices for atmospheric surveying for wake modeling.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NREL RSF Measured Data 2011

Modern buildings are complex energy systems that must be controlled for energy efficiency. The Research Support Facility (RSF) at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has hundreds of controllers -- computers that communicate with the building's various control systems -- to control the building based on tens of thousands of variables and sensor points. These control strategies were designed for the RSF's systems to efficiently support research activities. Many events that affect energy use cannot be reliably predicted, but certain decisions (such as control strategies) must be made ahead of time. NREL researchers modeled the RSF systems to predict how they might perform. They then monitor these systems to understand how they are actually performing and reacting to the dynamic conditions of weather, occupancy, and maintenance. This submission includes the Measured Energy Data from the RSF Systems Model. The data includes a csv with measured data from NREL's Research and Support Facility (RSF) for 2011. The dataset contains hourly data for: Total Cooling (kW)- Total Heating (kW)- Total Mechanical (kW)- Total Lighting (kW)- Total Plug Loads (kW)- Total Data Center (kW)- Total Building (kW)- PV (kW)- Building Net (kW). Energy Model data and Weather data related to the RSF Systems Model can be found in the "Related Datasets" section of this submission.

2011↗

Prediction of The TREAT Facility Power and Temperature of Sirius-2c Nuclear Propulsion Fuel Experiment

This paper presents simulation results of the Sirius-2c full power experiment that was performed at the TREAT facility to support experiment modeling and transient analysis of the NASA-sponsored Sirius series of experiments for nuclear thermal propulsion applications. We presents a novel approach to predict the control rod motion and power of the reactor and the temperature of the specimen during transient experiments using the Griffin and Bison packages of the Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE). First, the model predicts the transient rod motion that results in the desired reactor power shape. Then, the temperature of the specimen is predicted based on the power deposited in the specimen. The prediction results are in good agreement with the measured reactor power and control rod position and over-predicted the specimen temperature which is mainly related to specimen surface emissivities. The reactor reaches a peak power of 80 MW and a specimen temperature of 2500 K and considering the right specimen emissivities the predicted temperature is in an excellent agreement with the measured values. This model can be utilized in helping and supporting the design and optimization a new experiments that are going to be irradiated in the TREAT facility.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Maximization of the annual energy production of wind power plants by optimization of layout and yaw-based wake control: Maximization of wind plant AEP by optimization of layout and wake control

This paper presents a wind plant modeling and optimization tool that enables the maximization of wind plant annual energy production (AEP) using yaw-based wake steering control and layout changes. The tool is an extension of a wake engineering model describing the steady-state effects of yaw on wake velocity profiles and power productions of wind turbines in a wind plant. To make predictions of a wind plant's AEP, necessary extensions of the original wake model include coupling it with a detailed rotor model and a control policy for turbine blade pitch and rotor speed. This enables the prediction of power production with wake effects throughout a range of wind speeds. We use the tool to perform an example optimization study on a wind plant based on the Princess Amalia Wind Park. In this case study, combined optimization of layout and wake steering control increases AEP by 5%. The power gains from wake steering control are highest for region 1.5 inflow wind speeds, and they continue to be present to some extent for the above-rated inflow wind speeds. The results show that layout optimization and wake steering are complementary because significant AEP improvements can be achieved with wake steering in a wind plant layout that is already optimized to reduce wake losses.

17 WIND ENERGY↗