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At least 847 records · Page 47

Improving Land Surface Temperature Simulation in CoLM Over the Tibetan Plateau through Fractional Vegetation Cover Derived from a Remotely Sensed Clumping Index and Model-Simulated Leaf Area Index

Parameterizations of fractional vegetation cover (FVC) in land surface models have important effects on simulations of surface energy budget, especially in arid and semiarid regions. This study uses a FVC scheme in which FVC is derived from leaf area index and a remotely sensed clumping index. The performance of the new scheme (SMFVC) is evaluated against Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land surface temperature (LST) and in situ soil temperature observations, together with two other FVC schemes, a general FVC scheme (CTL) based on land cover map and a climatology-based FVC scheme (RSFVC) that uses long-term remotely sensed Normalized Difference Vegetation Index of MODIS. The three FVC schemes were implemented in the Common Land Model (CoLM) and applied in the Tibetan Plateau using the same forcing data and default parameters. Our results demonstrate that FVC schemes have significant influence on the CoLM performance: (1) the RSFVC and SMFVC schemes significantly reduce the LST biases found in CTL, particularly in grassland and during summer; (2) soil temperature evaluation by in situ observations from three networks on the Tibetan Plateau corroborates the LST results; and (3) the improvements are mainly related to representing temporal (seasonal) variability and subgrid heterogeneity of FVC, which improves surface albedo and surface energy balance. In other words, by including more vegetation characteristics, such as using a clumping index, land surface models may better simulate surface vegetation condition and further better represent the land surface energy budget over the Tibetan Plateau.

Li, Chengwei↗

Effects of groundwater pumping on ground surface temperature: A regional modeling study in the North China Plain

Over-exploitation of groundwater (GW) in the North China Plain (NCP) since the 1960s has many environmental consequences. However, understanding of the dominant mechanisms remains limited, particularly at regional scale. In this study, the coupled ParFlow.CLM model representing subsurface and land-surface processes and their interactions was applied in the NCP at high spatio-temporal resolutions. The model was validated using the water and energy fluxes reported in previous studies and from the JRA-55 reanalysis. Numerical experiments were designed to examine the relative impacts of GW pumping and irrigation on the ground surface temperature (GST). Results show significant effects of GW pumping on GST in the NCP. Generally, the subsurface acts as a buffer to temporal variations in heat fluxes at the land-surface, but long-term pumping can gradually weaken this buffer, resulting in increases in the spatio-temporal variability of GST, as exemplified by hotter summers and colder winters. Considering that changes of water table depth (WTD) can significantly affect land surface heat fluxes when WTD ranges roughly between 0.01–10 m, the 0.5 m/year increase of WTD simulated by the model due to pumping can continue to increase the average WTD and hence, disturb GST, for about 20 years from the pre-pumping WTD in the NCP, before the WTD exceeds 10 m. The variations of GST are expected to be faster initially and gradually slow down due to the nonlinear behaviors of GST with WTD. The findings from this study in the NCP may also have implications for other regions with GW depletion.

Yang, Chen↗

An Integrative Model for Soil Biogeochemistry and Methane Processes: I. Model Structure and Sensitivity Analysis

Abstract Environmental changes are anticipated to generate substantial impacts on carbon cycling in peatlands, affecting terrestrial‐climate feedbacks. Understanding how peatland methane (CH 4 ) fluxes respond to these changing environments is critical for predicting the magnitude of feedbacks from peatlands to global climate change. To improve predictions of CH 4 fluxes in response to changes such as elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentrations and warming, it is essential for Earth system models to include increased realism to simulate CH 4 processes in a more mechanistic way. To address this need, we incorporated a new microbial‐functional group‐based CH 4 module into the Energy Exascale Earth System land model (ELM) and tested it with multiple observational data sets at an ombrotrophic peatland bog in northern Minnesota. The model is able to simulate observed land surface CH 4 fluxes and fundamental mechanisms contributing to these throughout the soil profile. The model reproduced the observed vertical distributions of dissolved organic carbon and acetate concentrations. The seasonality of acetoclastic and hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis—two key processes for CH 4 production—and CH 4 concentration along the soil profile were accurately simulated. Meanwhile, the model estimated that plant‐mediated transport, diffusion, and ebullition contributed to ∼23.5%, 15.0%, and 61.5% of CH 4 transport, respectively. A parameter sensitivity analysis showed that CH 4 substrate and CH 4 production were the most critical mechanisms regulating temporal patterns of surface CH 4 fluxes both under ambient conditions and warming treatments. This knowledge will be used to improve Earth system model predictions of these high‐carbon ecosystems from plot to regional scales.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Mechanistic Modeling of Microtopographic Impacts on CO 2 and CH 4 Fluxes in an Alaskan Tundra Ecosystem Using the CLM-Microbe Model

Spatial heterogeneities in soil hydrology have been confirmed as a key control on CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes in the Arctic tundra ecosystem. In this study, we applied a mechanistic ecosystem model, CLM-Microbe, to examine the microtopographic impacts on CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes across seven landscape types in Utqia&#289vik, Alaska: trough, low-centered polygon (LCP) center, LCP transition, LCP rim, high-centered polygon (HCP) center, HCP transition, and HCP rim. We first validated the CLM-Microbe model against static-chamber measured CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes in 2013 for three landscape types: trough, LCP center, and LCP rim. Model application showed that low-elevation and thus wetter landscape types (i.e., trough, transitions, and LCP center) had larger CH 4 emissions rates with greater seasonal variations than high-elevation and drier landscape types (rims and HCP center). Sensitivity analysis indicated that substrate availability for methanogenesis (acetate, CO 2 + H 2 ) is the most important factor determining CH 4 emission, and vegetation physiological properties largely affect the net ecosystem carbon exchange and ecosystem respiration in Arctic tundra ecosystems. Modeled CH 4 emissions for different microtopographic features were upscaled to the eddy covariance (EC) domain with an area-weighted approach before validation against EC-measured CH 4 fluxes. The model underestimated the EC-measured CH 4 flux by 20% and 25% at daily and hourly time steps, suggesting the importance of the time step in reporting CH 4 flux. The strong microtopographic impacts on CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes call for a model-data integration framework for better understanding and predicting carbon flux in the highly heterogeneous Arctic landscape.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Description and Demonstration of the Coupled Community Earth System Model v2 – Community Ice Sheet Model v2 (CESM2‐CISM2)

Abstract Earth system/ice‐sheet coupling is an area of recent, major Earth System Model (ESM) development. This work occurs at the intersection of glaciology and climate science and is motivated by a need for robust projections of sea‐level rise. The Community Ice Sheet Model version 2 (CISM2) is the newest component model of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). This study describes the coupling and novel capabilities of the model, including: (1) an advanced energy‐balance‐based surface mass balance calculation in the land component with downscaling via elevation classes; (2) a closed freshwater budget from ice sheet to the ocean from surface runoff, basal melting, and ice discharge; (3) dynamic land surface types; and (4) dynamic atmospheric topography. The Earth system/ice‐sheet coupling is demonstrated in a simulation with an evolving Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) under an idealized high CO 2 scenario. The model simulates a large expansion of ablation areas (where surface ablation exceeds snow accumulation) and a large increase in surface runoff. This results in an elevated freshwater flux to the ocean, as well as thinning of the ice sheet and area retreat. These GrIS changes result in reduced Greenland surface albedo, changes in the sign and magnitude of sensible and latent heat fluxes, and modified surface roughness and overall ice sheet topography. Representation of these couplings between climate and ice sheets is key for the simulation of ice and climate interactions.

Muntjewerf, Laura↗

Modeling Isoprene Emission Response to Drought and Heatwaves Within MEGAN Using Evapotranspiration Data and by Coupling With the Community Land Model

We introduce two new drought stress algorithms designed to simulate isoprene emission with the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN) model. The two approaches include the representation of the impact of drought on isoprene emission with a simple empirical approach for offline MEGAN applications and a more process-based approach for online MEGAN in Community Land Model (CLM) simulations. The two versions differ in their implementation of leaf-temperature impacts of mild drought. For the online version of MEGAN that is coupled to CLM, the impact of drought on leaf temperature is simulated directly and the calculated leaf temperature is considered for the estimation of isoprene emission. For the offline version, we apply an empirical algorithm derived from whole-canopy flux measurements for simulating the impact of drought ranging from mild to severe stage. In addition, the offline approach adopts the ratio ($f$ PET ) of actual evapotranspiration to potential evapotranspiration to quantify the severity of drought instead of using soil moisture. We applied the two algorithms in the CLM-CAM-chem (the Community Atmosphere Model with Chemistry) model to simulate the impact of drought on isoprene emission and found that drought can decrease isoprene emission globally by 11% in 2012. We further compared the formaldehyde (HCHO) vertical column density simulated by CAM-chem to satellite HCHO observations. We found that the proposed drought algorithm can improve the match with the HCHO observations during droughts, but the performance of the drought algorithm is limited by the capacity of the model to capture the severity of drought.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Ensemble Spread Behavior in Coupled Climate Models: Insights From the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Version 1 Large Ensemble

AbstractAssessing uncertainty in future climate projections requires understanding both internal climate variability and external forcing. For this reason, single‐model initial condition large ensembles (SMILEs) run with Earth System Models (ESMs) have recently become popular. Here we present a new 20‐member SMILE with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1‐LE), which uses a “macro” initialization strategy choosing coupled atmosphere/ocean states based on inter‐basin contrasts in ocean heat content (OHC). The E3SMv1‐LE simulates tropical climate variability well, albeit with a muted warming trend over the twentieth century due to overly strong aerosol forcing. The E3SMv1‐LE's initial climate spread is comparable to other (larger) SMILEs, suggesting that maximizing inter‐basin ocean heat contrasts may be an efficient method of generating ensemble spread. We also compare different ensemble spread across multiple SMILEs, using surface air temperature and OHC. The Community Earth system Model version 1, the only ensemble which utilizes a “micro” initialization approach perturbing only atmospheric initial conditions, yields lower spread in the first ∼30 years. The E3SMv1‐LE exhibits a relatively large spread, with some evidence for anthropogenic forcing influencing spread in the late twentieth century. However, systematic effects of differing “macro” initialization strategies are difficult to detect, possibly resulting from differing model physics or responses to external forcing. Notably, the method of standardizing results affects ensemble spread: control simulations for most models have either large background trends or multi‐centennial variability in OHC. This spurious disequlibrium behavior is a substantial roadblock to understanding both internal climate variability and its response to forcing.

Stevenson, Samantha↗

Boosting Barlow Twins Reduced Order Modeling for Machine Learning‐Based Surrogate Models in Multiphase Flow Problems

Abstract We present an innovative approach called boosting Barlow Twins reduced order modeling (BBT‐ROM) to enhance the reliability of machine learning surrogate models for multiphase flow problems. BBT‐ROM builds upon Barlow Twins reduced order modeling that leverages self‐supervised learning to effectively handle linear and nonlinear manifolds by constructing well‐structured latent spaces of input parameters and output quantities. To address the challenge of high contrast data in multiphase flow problems due to injection wells and faults, we employ a boosting algorithm within BBT‐ROM. This algorithm sequentially trains a set of weak models (i.e., inaccurate models), improving prediction accuracy through ensemble learning. To evaluate the performance of BBT‐ROM, we conduct three three‐dimensional multiphase flow problems, including waterflooding and geologic carbon storage (GCS), with varying numbers of input parameter cases and model domain features. The results demonstrate that BBT‐ROM excels at predicting non‐wetting phase saturation (e.g., oil or saturation) and fluid pressure, with average relative errors ranging from 0.5% to 3%. Importantly, BBT‐ROM showcases robustness when faced with limited input parameter space during GCS testing.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Global tuning of hadronic interaction models with accelerator-based and astroparticle data

In high-energy and astroparticle physics, event generators play an essential role, even in the simplest data analyses. As analysis techniques become more sophisticated, e.g. based on deep neural networks, their correct description of the observed event characteristics becomes even more important. Physical processes occurring in hadronic collisions are simulated within a Monte Carlo framework. A major challenge is the modeling of hadron dynamics at low momentum transfer, which includes the initial and final phases of every hadronic collision. QCD-inspired phenomenological models used for these phases cannot guarantee completeness or correctness over the full phase space. These models usually include parameters which must be tuned to suitable experimental data. Until now, event generators have been developed and tuned mainly on the basis of data from high-energy physics experiments at accelerators. The wealth of data available from the latest generation of astroparticle experiments has not yet been fully exploited, and in many cases is not satisfactorily described. Both kinds of data sets are complementary as astroparticle experiments provide sensitivity especially to hadrons produced nearly parallel to the collision axis and cover center-of-mass energies up to several hundred TeV, well beyond those reached at colliders so far. In this report, we provide an overview of state-of-the-art event generators and their tuning, including the most relevant inputs from high-energy accelerator and astroparticle experiments. We present a road map that shows, for the first time, how the unified tuning of event generators with accelerator-based and astroparticle data can be performed.

Albrecht, J. [Ruhr U., Bochum, RAPP Ctr.; Ruhr U.,↗

The Development of Kinetic and Radiation Hydrodynamics Modeling of Thermonuclear Burn Propagation in Isochoric p - 11 B Through the Support of the INFUSE Program

The report summarizes DOE INFUSE-supported work between HB11 Energy and the University of Rochester’s TriForce Institute to improve computational modeling of advanced fusion fuels, especially proton–boron-11 (p- 11 B). The project extended the TriForce particle-in-cell/Monte Carlo collision code to include physics needed for dense, high-temperature p- 11 B burn studies, including p- 11 B fusion reactions, three-alpha-particle reaction products, relativistic Coulomb collisions, large-angle nuclear scattering, bremsstrahlung radiation, inverse bremsstrahlung absorption, and photon transport. The upgraded models were verified against focused physics tests and against known deuterium–tritium burn behavior. The study then used one-dimensional spherical simulations to estimate the conditions required for thermonuclear burn propagation in isochoric p- 11 B fuel. The calculations found that burn propagation is possible in the model, but only under very extreme hot-spot conditions, such as about 7000 g/cm 3 at 500 keV or 9000 g/cm 3 at 300 keV for a 20-micron hot spot. These conditions are much more demanding than current demonstrated inertial confinement fusion hot spots. The report concludes that the INFUSE collaboration successfully advanced kinetic and radiation modeling capabilities for p- 11 B fusion and provided useful estimates of ignition requirements. However, the simulated fuel gains remain below what would be needed for practical inertial fusion energy, and further work is needed to reconcile differences among kinetic, radiation-hydrodynamic, and analytic models and to identify more achievable target designs.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Improving streamflow predictions across CONUS by integrating advanced machine learning models and diverse data

Accurate streamflow prediction is crucial to understand climate impacts on water resources and develop effective adaption strategies. A global long short-term memory (LSTM) model, using data from multiple basins, can enhance streamflow prediction, yet acquiring detailed basin attributes remains a challenge. To overcome this, we introduce the Geo-vision transformer (ViT)-LSTM model, a novel approach that enriches LSTM predictions by integrating basin attributes derived from remote sensing with a ViT architecture. Applied to 531 basins across the Contiguous United States, our method demonstrated superior prediction accuracy in both temporal and spatiotemporal extrapolation scenarios. Geo-ViT-LSTM marks a significant advancement in land surface modeling, providing a more comprehensive and effective tool for better understanding the environment responses to climate change.

Tayal, Kshitij↗

Accelerating flux balance calculations in genome-scale metabolic models by localizing the application of loopless constraints

Abstract Background Genome-scale metabolic network models and constraint-based modeling techniques have become important tools for analyzing cellular metabolism. Thermodynamically infeasible cycles (TICs) causing unbounded metabolic flux ranges are often encountered. TICs satisfy the mass balance and directionality constraints but violate the second law of thermodynamics. Current practices involve implementing additional constraints to ensure not only optimal but also loopless flux distributions. However, the mixed integer linear programming problems required to solve become computationally intractable for genome-scale metabolic models. Results We aimed to identify the fewest needed constraints sufficient for optimality under the loopless requirement. We found that loopless constraints are required only for the reactions that share elementary flux modes representing TICs with reactions that are part of the objective function. We put forth the concept of localized loopless constraints (LLCs) to enforce this minimal required set of loopless constraints. By combining with a novel procedure for minimal null-space calculation, the computational time for loopless flux variability analysis (ll-FVA) is reduced by a factor of 10–150 compared to the original loopless constraints and by 4–20 times compared to the current fastest method Fast-SNP with the percent improvement increasing with model size. Importantly, LLCs offer a scalable strategy for loopless flux calculations for multi-compartment/multi-organism models of large sizes, for example, shortening the CPU time for ll-FVA from 35 h to less than 2 h for a model with more than104 reactions. Availability and implementation Matlab functions are available in the Supplementary Material or at https://github.com/maranasgroup/lll-FVA Supplementary information Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Chan, Siu H. J. (ORCID:000000027707656X)↗

Systematics in asteroseismic modelling: application of a correlated noise model for oscillation frequencies

ABSTRACT The detailed modelling of stellar oscillations is a powerful approach to characterizing stars. However, poor treatment of systematics in theoretical models leads to misinterpretations of stars. Here, we propose a more principled statistical treatment for the systematics to be applied to fitting individual mode frequencies with a typical stellar model grid. We introduce a correlated noise model based on a Gaussian process (GP) kernel to describe the systematics given that mode frequency systematics are expected to be highly correlated. We show that tuning the GP kernel can reproduce general features of frequency variations for changing model input physics and fundamental parameters. Fits with the correlated noise model better recover stellar parameters than traditional methods that either ignore the systematics or treat them as uncorrelated noise.

Li, Tanda (ORCID:0000000163962563)↗

Universality class for loopless invasion percolation models and a percolation avalanche burst model for hydraulic fracturing

Invasion percolation is a model that was originally proposed to describe growing networks of fractures. In this work, we describe a loopless algorithm on random lattices, coupled with an avalanche-based model for bursts. The model reproduces the characteristic b-value seismicity and spatial distribution of bursts consistent with earthquakes resulting from hydraulic fracturing (“fracking”). We test models for both site invasion percolation and bond invasion percolation. These have differences on the scale of site and bond lengths l. But since the networks are characterized by their large-scale behavior, l << L, we find small differences between scaling exponents. Though data may not differentiate between models, our results suggest that both models belong to different universality classes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Modeling and Control of Cascaded Bridgeless Multilevel Rectifier Under Unbalanced Load Conditions

The goal of this project is to model and control a novel unidirectional cascaded multilevel bridgeless rectifier as an active front end in medium and high voltage applications. This topology has many advantages over a conventional cascaded H-bridge rectifier, such as lower implementation cost, higher reliability, and greater flexibility with similar power quality.The steady-state mathematical model is used to develop a method for the voltage balancing of dc cells. Power factor analysis is discussed to achieve unity power factor using fully controlled hbridge cells. Power loss, efficiency, and cost comparison studies between the traditional cascaded H-Bridge converter and the proposed bridgeless converter demonstrate the advantages. A novel control strategy is proposed to achieve dc voltage balancing, fast and robust grid synchronization and power factor correction under unbalanced load conditions. Simulation and experimental results validate the models and control method.

Cascaded Bridgeless Rectifier, Power factor analys↗

Real-Time Model-Adaptive Relaying Applied to Microgrid Protection

In microgrids, the short-circuit current magnitude is significantly limited by more than an order of magnitude due to the relatively small inverter-based resources. Commercially available protective devices for distribution cannot reliably protect a microgrid due to their dependence on the magnitude of the fault current. Moreover, overcurrent relays typically cannot function properly for a microgrid because they are incapable of detecting faults and/or performing the coordination between the relays in inverter-based microgrids operated in the islanded mode. This paper proposes a model-adaptive relay designed to adjust the relay curves based on the available generation and the network topology. The proposed method runs a real-time model of the microgrid, which gathers information from the network to calculate the available short-circuit current in the specified node. The fault current from the model is then used for the adaptive algorithm to calculate the relay settings, considering coordination with the downstream fuses and upstream reclosers. This work presents the validation of the proposed method in Hardware-in-the-Loop, in a hardware testbed as well as field deployed in a real microgrid in East-Tennessee.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Linear Approximation Line Pack Model for Integrated Electricity and Natural Gas Systems OPF

With the increasing installation of renewable energy electricity generation capacity, the penetration of natural gas fired generation is also substantailly increasing in power systems due to their fast response capability to mitigate system variability and uncertainty. The dependencies between the electricity system and the natural gas system are becoming more important to maintain the reliability of both systems. In integrated electricity and natural gas systems (IEGSs) operations, the nonlinearity of the natural gas system brings challenges to the system operators. In this paper, the IEGSs optimal power flow (OPF) model is proposed that includes the line pack of the gas system via linear approximation. The simulation results demonstrate that the proposed model can obtain optimal solutions efficiently that are comparable in accuracy as the nonlinear line pack model.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗