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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 847 records · Page 47
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2018

Applicability of HBU Fuel Cask R and D Project to Al Clad Fuel Storage - 18558

Aluminum clad spent nuclear fuel (SNF) not destined to be reprocessed at Savannah River's H Canyon will eventually be moved from existing wet and dry storage facilities into standardized dry storage systems (e.g., Universal Canisters), ideally suited for disposal. With the current lack of disposal capacity in the U.S., placement of this SNF into dry storage requires plans for demonstrating to the regulator the safety of both the extended storage and the subsequent transportation to a future disposal facility of this SNF. For commercial SNF, concerns related to extended dry storage and subsequent transportation have been, and continue to be, addressed through several demonstration projects including, but not limited to, one for the lower burnup SNF at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) and one for the higher burnup SNF at Dominion's North Anna Power Station. Lessons learned from the more recent Orano led higher burnup demonstration project (HBU Demo Project) provides relevant information for advancing the concept of a 'smart cask' system for dry interim storage, which will allow for collection of data to support the safety demonstration for extended dry storage and subsequent transportation of the aluminum clad SNF. This 'smart cask' would eliminate the need for multiple demonstration projects that may have to be performed for different types of aluminum clad SNF designs and/or for potentially age distinguishing parameters, such as burnup or initial enrichment. This 'smart cask' would be developed and deployed by leveraging the HBU Demo Project's experience associated with modifying and deploying a TN-32B bolted carbon steel vertical storage cask system to monitor key parameters related to the criticality, structural, confinement, and thermal safety of the SNF and the canister system containing this SNF. This paper will focus on how the extensive design, licensing, and fabrication experience accumulated by the HBU Demo Project's cask system can be leveraged to support the design, licensing, and fabrication of a 'smart cask' system intended to support/confirm the interim dry storage, potential extended storage, and subsequent transportation of aluminum clad SNF, such as the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) SNF. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2018

An Information Template for Evaluating the Relative Priority of Remediation Projects that Pose a Risk to Receptors - 18674

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has one of the largest remediation tasks in the world, in terms of the number of sites, the complexity of individual sites, the number of remediation projects at individual sites, and the full range of stakeholders involved. The question of how to decide what projects to initiate, at any point of time and how to prioritize the deployment of resources for these tasks, occurs both within and among sites. The Consortium for Risk Evaluation developed a Risk-informed Prioritization Framework for Oak Ridge Reservation. Our goal was to develop a risk-informed methodology for prioritizing remediation projects for the Department of Energy's Oak Ridge Reservation that can be adapted to other remediation projects elsewhere. The heart of the framework is a template that includes information about each site necessary to make prioritization decisions. The information in the template describes the environment (hazard, pathway, consequences), the receptors (workers, public, ecological) and the risk management considerations (cost, risk reduction effectiveness, capacity, efficiency and sequencing). The questions in the template provide a wide range of information that managers and regulators need to make decisions, and that Tribes and the public need to evaluate the efficacy of remediation decisions. Completing the template will also help identify data gaps, model parameters needed, and the agencies or individuals responsible for obtaining the information. The information presented in the Template will be useful for regulators (DOE, Environmental Protection Agency, states, Tribes), managers and workers at the sites, trustees of natural resources, site neighbors, and the general public, but more importantly, provides an example of information needed to rate the priority of remediation projects. DOE, other federal and state trustees, and regulators were included in all phases of the development, including the scope, overseeing its development, and evaluation of projects. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2019

The Development of a Small-Scale Project Model for Waste Management at the Port Hope Conversion Facility - 19126

Cameco Corporation's (Cameco) Port Hope Conversion Facility (PHCF) was previously owned by the federal Crown Corporation, Eldorado Nuclear, which held a significant inventory of legacy waste material at the time Cameco was formed in 1988. Over time, Cameco's ongoing operations contributed to an increase in the volume of low-level radioactive waste managed onsite. Since 2011, Cameco has completed annual waste management campaigns with the goal of accelerating the recycle/disposal of accumulated legacy radioactive wastes stored at its Ontario operations. With disposal options for low-level radioactively contaminated wastes in Canada limited due to cost considerations and no commercially accessible landfills licensed for radioactive material. In recent years, Cameco has started to ship marginally contaminated wastes (<500 ppm uranium) to the United States for disposal in an appropriate landfill owned by US Ecology in Idaho. Numerous successful campaigns totaling over 1,000 successful shipments, have been completed to transport drummed and/or bagged material by rail in gondola cars to the disposal facility in Idaho since 2011. All shipments have been completed in compliance with all environmental regulations, with a perfect compliance record maintained to date. To achieve this excellent compliance record, the campaigns require careful planning by both organizations, as well as deployment of personnel from the Idaho facility during the campaign for project management, characterization and/or radiation monitoring support. As the accumulated waste inventory has been reduced through these projects, the scope and duration of each campaign has also decreased. In the last few years, road transport directly to the Idaho facility has also been utilized. This option allows for the deployment of small projects that may be completed for a smaller inventory of a specific waste type and to manage newly-generated low-level radioactive wastes on an ongoing basis. These projects have ranged from a single standard van shipment to multiple trucks running continuous loops between the Ontario and Idaho or Ontario and an intermediary site and have been utilized for marginally contaminated wastes (<500 ppm uranium) as well as marginally contaminated wastes with additional hazard classification. Cameco and US Ecology personnel have collaborated to develop characterization and shipment procedures that enable these projects to be executed in full compliance with all Canadian and US regulations, without deployment of personnel from the Idaho facility, while maintaining adequate oversight by both organizations to ensure that the waste is safely and compliantly managed. These protocols have been implemented and optimized for the Port Hope Conversion Facility and will be rolled out to other Cameco facilities in Ontario through 2019. Cameco expects to utilize the small project model for the long term to ensure that eligible marginally contaminated wastes (<500 ppm uranium) are managed appropriately to ensure that once the legacy material is eliminated, it remains so. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2019

Panel Session 12: Featured Country Canada - Engaging the Public and Indigenous Groups in Canadian Waste and D and D Projects

This panel will share insights from those directly involved in the dialogue among members of the Canadian public, elected officials of host communities, indigenous groups, project proponents, and the Canadian regulator. History has shown time and again that the early and meaningful engagement of stakeholders must go hand-in-hand with technical solutions in order to assure the successful start and finish of waste management and decommissioning projects. In this panel discussion, the requirements for consultation and communication, the tools and strategies used, the results of efforts to date, and plans will be addressed by those at the center of some of Canada's biggest and most controversial radioactive waste projects. Presentations proposed include: 1 - Engaging the Public and Indigenous Groups in Canadian Waste and D and D Projects (Candida Cianci, Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission (Canada)); 2 - Indigenous Engagement (Bob Watts, Nuclear Waste Management Organization (Canada)); 3 - Engaging the Public and Indigenous Groups Related to Canadian Waste and D and D Projects (Patrick Quinn, Canadian Nuclear Laboratories (Canada)); 4 - Engaging the Public and Indigenous Groups in Canadian Waste and D and D Projects Canadian Association of Nuclear Host Communities Point of View (Blair Skinner, Local Government District of Pinawa, Manitoba (Canada))

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

Feedback from International Decommissioning Planning Projects - 20269

Decommissioning of Nuclear Power Plants is an increasing reality in many countries with nuclear power. Already many years before final shutdown, planning of the decommissioning work is usually started in order to understand for example the costs, waste volume capacity and licensing work needed. In many countries it is required to have a final decommissioning plan before any decommissioning work is allowed to start. Westinghouse has been involved in international decommissioning planning for more than 30 years, where the first 20 years was mostly funding and preliminary plans due to that decommissioning was many years away. However, as many more plants are now moving into decommissioning, the focus has shifted to final decommissioning plans with budgets instead of funding plans, strategic decisions instead of choices, waste volume specifications instead of estimates and a defined approach instead of what ifs. Westinghouse has developed a methodology based on the planning and execution of many decommissioning projects in Europe, America and Asia. That international experience and understanding helps the customers to adopt a systematic planning process where strategy development is done with the end state in mind, where the goals are clearly outlined and the starting point described. The process and steps to reach the desired end state need to be clearly defined and all options/alternatives evaluated from a cost/benefit point of view. This is followed by a thorough and quantitative risk analysis in order to give solid recommendations and credible conclusions. One important feedback has been that real decommissioning experience from reference projects is invaluable for an efficient and timely progress in order not to spend unnecessary time and effort on understanding the barriers and links between different activities in decommissioning. Skilled project managers or engineers can drive the project forward, but without decommissioning experience previously gained, valuable lessons learned are not used and the same mistakes can be made again. Many utilities have invested in knowledge transfer from other decommissioning projects through site visits, exchange programs and supplier meetings, which is a valuable asset and way of implementing lessons learned from performed decommissioning projects into the planning process. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2013

Project X: A Flexible High Power Proton Facility

Project X is a high intensity proton facility that will support a world-leading Intensity Frontier research program over the next several decades at Fermilab. When compared to other facilities in the planning stages elsewhere in the world Project X is completely unique in its ability to deliver, simultaneously, up to 6 MW of site-wide beam power to multiple experiments, at multiple energies, and with flexible beam formats. Project X will support a wide range of experiments based on neutrinos, muons, kaons, nucleons, and nuclei. In addition, Project X will lay the foundation for the long-term development of a Neutrino Factory and/or Muon Collider. A complete concept for Project X has been developed and is documented in the Project X Reference Design Report.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Wetter California Projected by CMIP6 Models With Observational Constraints Under a High GHG Emission Scenario

As the world's fifth-largest economy entity, California (CA) is vulnerable to climate changes especially the magnitude of winter (wet season) precipitation that is closely linked to regional drought severity, vegetation growth, and wildfire activities. However, the fate of CA precipitation in the future remains highly uncertain, for example, the state-of-the-art Earth system models (ESMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) projected –3% to +42% and –27% to +63% precipitation changes in northern and central-southern CA, respectively, under the high greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenario (SSP585). In this work, we applied the Pareto optimality concept and used observed teleconnection patterns (causal relationships between ocean regions and CA precipitation) to mechanistically constrain CMIP6 projected CA precipitations. We estimated that precipitation will robustly increase by 0.4–1.3 mm d –1 (10–34%) over northern CA and increase by 0.1–0.5 mm d –1 (7–32%) over central-southern CA by the end of the 21st century compared with present-day. Up to 71% of ESM projection uncertainties were reduced mainly due to the strong and consistent causal relationship between North American west coast sea level pressure and CA precipitation in both observations and CMIP6 models. Our results suggest that teleconnection patterns are powerful mechanistic constraints that can help explain and reduce uncertainties in ESM projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2012

Usage of Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment Along the Corridors between the EV Project Major Cities

The report explains how the EVSE are being used along the corridors between the EV Project cities. The EV Project consists of a nationwide collaboration between Idaho National Laboratory (INL), ECOtality North America, Nissan, General Motors, and more than 40 other city, regional and state governments, and electric utilities. The purpose of the EV Project is to demonstrate the deployment and use of approximately 14,000 Level II (208-240V) electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) and 300 fast chargers in 16 major cities. This research investigates the usage of all currently installed EV Project commercial EVSE along major interstate corridors. ESRI ArcMap software products are utilized to create geographic EVSE data layers for analysis and visualization of commercial EVSE usage. This research locates the crucial interstate corridors lacking sufficient commercial EVSE and targets locations for future commercial EVSE placement. The results and methods introduced in this research will be used by INL for the duration of the EV Project.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Project 57 Air Monitoring Report: (Jan 1 - Dec 31 2018)

During the late 1950s, the Atomic Energy Commission (AEC) (now the U.S. Department of Energy [DOE]) conducted a series of safety experiments to determine if a nuclear device subjected to a large conventional explosives detonation would result in a nuclear yield. The AEC obtained temporary use of a large portion of western Emigrant Valley from the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) for one of these experiments: Project 57. Following the Project 57 safety experiment, the AEC fenced the contaminated area and returned control of the surrounding land to the DOD. Emigrant Valley is part of the Nevada Test and Training Range (NTTR). For safety and security reasons, access to the NTTR is controlled using both physical (i.e., fences) and administrative (e.g., signs and postings) controls. Therefore, the public cannot access the Project 57 site and there are no known human receptors that routinely access the site. Project 57 was detonated on April 24, 1957, in Emigrant Valley approximately 13 mi (21 km) northeast of the north end of Yucca Flat. This test was undertaken to develop: (1) a means of estimating immediate distribution and long-term redistribution of plutonium dispersed during a nonnuclear detonation; (2) biomedical evaluation techniques for use in likely plutonium-laden environments; (3) methods of decontaminating ground areas, pavements, and building materials; and (4) alpha survey instruments and field monitoring procedures to promptly estimate contaminant deposition. Although the test did not result in the fission of nuclear materials, it did disseminate plutonium across the ground surface. Various radiological surveys have been performed in the area since Project 57 was conducted. The AEC delineated the area containing radioactive material based on radioactivity surveys performed shortly after the test was conducted. A designated Contamination Area (CA), marked by a fence, was established later. The distribution of americium-241 (Am-241) in the area was determined again in a 1997 flyover, which showed Am-241 ranging from as much as 70,000 counts per second (cps) at ground zero to background (<70 cps). This survey also documented Am-241 radioactivity on the ground surface beyond the east side CA fence at levels of up to 150 cps. In 2007, the DOE expanded the CA by posting “Contamination Area” signs 200 ft to 400 ft (60 m to 120 m) beyond the original fence, which formed a new CA boundary.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Cost Projections for Utility-Scale Battery Storage: 2023 Update

In this work we describe the development of cost and performance projections for utility-scale lithium-ion battery systems, with a focus on 4-hour duration systems. The projections are developed from an analysis of recent publications that include utility-scale storage costs. The suite of publications demonstrates wide variation in projected cost reductions for battery storage over time. We use the recent publications to create low, mid, and high cost projections. Projected storage costs are $245/kWh, $326/kWh, and $403/kWh in 2030 and $159/kWh, $226/kWh, and $348/kWh in 2050. Battery variable operations and maintenance costs, lifetimes, and efficiencies are also discussed, with recommended values selected based on the publications surveyed.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2018

Evaluating the Implications of Climate Projections on Heat Hardiness Zones for Green Infrastructure Planning

Background: Green Infrastructure (GI) is widely being promoted as an adaptation strategy for urban flooding. Like urban flooding, tree species could be impacted by future climatic conditions. However, there have been limited studies on the implications of future climate on GI planning, mostly due to the lack of climate data at higher spatial resolutions. Objective: Here in this paper, we analyze the implications of climate projections on heat hardiness zones since this could impact the GI landscape in the coming years. This is an extension of our earlier work on evaluating impacts of climate projections on plant hardiness zones. Method: Using downscaled daily temperature data from ten Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models for the historical (1980-2005) and projected (2025-2050) periods, we analyzed future heat hardiness zones in the watershed bounding Knox County, TN. We analyzed the implications of these outputs for the current list of suggested native and non-native tree species selected for GI in the study area. Results: All the models suggest that a considerable part of the study area will move into the next warmer heat zone. While most trees remain suitable for GI, several are at the limit of their ideal heat zones. Conclusion: The insights from this study will help to guide the selection and placement of GI across the study area. Specifically, it should help green infrastructure planners design better mitigation and adaptation strategies to achieve higher returns on investments as more cities are now investing in GI projects.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Asymmetric projections of the arcuate fasciculus to the temporal cortex underlie lateralized language function in the human brain

The arcuate fasciculus (AF) in the human brain has asymmetric structural properties. However, the topographic organization of the asymmetric AF projections to the cortex and its relevance to cortical function remain unclear. Here we mapped the posterior projections of the human AF in the inferior parietal and lateral temporal cortices using surface-based structural connectivity analysis based on diffusion MRI and investigated their hemispheric differences. We then performed the cross-modal comparison with functional connectivity based on resting-state functional MRI (fMRI) and task-related cortical activation based on fMRI using a semantic classification task of single words. Structural connectivity analysis showed that the left AF connecting to Broca's area predominantly projected in the lateral temporal cortex extending from the posterior superior temporal gyrus to the mid part of the superior temporal sulcus and the middle temporal gyrus, whereas the right AF connecting to the right homolog of Broca's area predominantly projected to the inferior parietal cortex extending from the mid part of the supramarginal gyrus to the anterior part of the angular gyrus. The left-lateralized projection regions of the AF in the left temporal cortex had asymmetric functional connectivity with Broca's area, indicating structure-function concordance through the AF. During the language task, left-lateralized cortical activation was observed. Among them, the brain responses in the temporal cortex and Broca's area that were connected through the left-lateralized AF pathway were specifically correlated across subjects. These results suggest that the human left AF, which structurally and functionally connects the mid temporal cortex and Broca's area in asymmetrical fashion, coordinates the cortical activity in these remote cortices during a semantic decision task. As a result, the unique feature of the left AF is discussed in the context of the human capacity for language.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1994

Reengineering the Project Design Process

In response to NASA's goal of working faster, better and cheaper, JPL has developed extensive plans to minimize cost, maximize customer and employee satisfaction, and implement small- and moderate-size missions. These plans include improved management structures and processes, enhanced technical design processes, the incorporation of new technology, and the development of more economical space- and ground-system designs. The Laboratory's new Flight Projects Implementation Office has been chartered to oversee these innovations and the reengineering of JPL's project design process, including establishment of the Project Design Center and the Flight System Testbed. Reengineering at JPL implies a cultural change whereby the character of its design process will change from sequential to concurrent and from hierarchical to parallel. The Project Design Center will support missions offering high science return, design to cost, demonstrations of new technology, and rapid development. Its computer-supported environment will foster high-fidelity project life-cycle development and cost estimating.

Jet Propulsion Laboratory JPL project design concu↗
NASA NTRS2015

Projections of Rapidly Rising Temperatures over Africa Under Low Mitigation

An analysis of observed trends in African annual-average near-surface temperatures over the last five decades reveals drastic increases, particularly over parts of the subtropics and central tropical Africa. Over these regions, temperatures have been rising at more than twice the global rate of temperature increase. An ensemble of high-resolution downscalings, obtained using a single regional climate model forced with the sea-surface temperatures and sea-ice fields of an ensemble of global circulation model (GCM) simulations, is shown to realistically represent the relatively strong temperature increases observed in subtropical southern and northern Africa. The amplitudes of warming are generally underestimated, however. Further warming is projected to occur during the 21st century, with plausible increases of 4-6 C over the subtropics and 3-5 C over the tropics by the end of the century relative to present-day climate under the A2 (a low mitigation) scenario of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios. High impact climate events such as heat-wave days and high fire-danger days are consistently projected to increase drastically in their frequency of occurrence. General decreases in soil-moisture availability are projected, even for regions where increases in rainfall are plausible, due to enhanced levels of evaporation. The regional downscalings presented here, and recent GCM projections obtained for Africa, indicate that African annual-averaged temperatures may plausibly rise at about 1.5 times the global rate of temperature increase in the subtropics, and at a somewhat lower rate in the tropics. These projected increases although drastic, may be conservative given the model underestimations of observed temperature trends. The relatively strong rate of warming over Africa, in combination with the associated increases in extreme temperature events, may be key factors to consider when interpreting the suitability of global mitigation targets in terms of African climate change and climate change adaptation in Africa.

climate change↗
DOE OSTI2018

A survey of MPI usage in the US exascale computing project

The Exascale Computing Project (ECP) is currently the primary effort in the United States focused on developing “exascale” levels of computing capabilities, including hardware, software, and applications. In order to obtain a more thorough understanding of how the software projects under the ECP are using, and planning to use the Message Passing Interface (MPI), and help guide the work of our own project within the ECP, we created a survey. Of the 97 ECP projects active at the time the survey was distributed, we received 77 responses, 56 of which reported that their projects were using MPI. Furthermore, this paper reports the results of that survey for the benefit of the broader community of MPI developers.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Ventenata dubia projected to expand in the western United States despite future novel conditions

Abstract Distributions of both native and invasive species are expected to shift under future climate. Species distribution models (SDMs) are often used to explore future habitats, but sources of uncertainty including novel climate conditions may reduce the reliability of future projections. We explore the potential spread of the invasive annual grass ventenata ( Ventenata dubia ) in the western United States under both current and future climate scenarios using boosted regression tree models and 30 global climate models (GCMs). We quantify novel climate conditions, prediction variability arising from both the SDMs and GCMs, and the agreement among GCMs. Results demonstrate that currently suitable habitat is concentrated inside the invaded range of the northwest, but substantial habitat exists outside the invaded range in the Southern Rockies and southwestern US mountains. Future suitability projections vary greatly among GCMs, but GCMs commonly projected decreased suitability in the invaded range and increased suitability along higher elevations of interior mountainous areas. Climate novelty did not appear to undermine the prediction reliability in many cases where the climate–species relationship was fully represented by the occurrence data. GCM‐derived variability resulting from variation in future cool season precipitation and temperature seasonality was greatest in the Rocky Mountains. SDM‐derived variability was higher in currently suitable habitat, and few GCMs projections agreed that these areas would contain future suitable habitat. However, while prediction variability was high, many GCM projections agreed that parts of the Rocky, Wasatch, and Uinta Mountains would contain highly suitable habitat in the future. As disturbances in the interior mountains occur in coming decades, reducing some natural barriers to invasion, land managers, and conservationists will need to monitor for ventenata in post‐disturbance environments. Changes to invasion potential may not play out for several decades, but results related to current potential may have applications for early detection and rapid response planning.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2020

Projected changes in the terrestrial and oceanic regulators of climate variability across sub-Saharan Africa

Future changes in the sign and intensity of ocean–land–atmosphere interactions have been insufficiently studied, despite implications for regional climate change projections, extreme event statistics, and seasonal climate predictability. In response to this deficiency, the present study focuses on projected responses to the enhanced greenhouse effect in: (1) the mean state of the atmosphere and land surface; (2) oceanic and terrestrial drivers of sub-Saharan climate variability; and (3) total seasonal climate predictability of sub-Saharan Africa, a region known for its pronounced land–atmosphere coupling. Analysis focuses on output from 23 Earth System Models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Five for the late twentieth and twenty-first centuries. It is projected that the greatest warming across sub-Saharan Africa will occur over the Sahel, the monsoon season will become more persistent into late summer and autumn, short rains in the Horn of Africa (HOA) will intensify, and leaf area index will increase across the HOA. Stepwise Generalized Equilibrium Feedback Assessment, i.e. a multivariate statistical approach, is applied to the model output over sub-Saharan Africa in order to explore the oceanic and terrestrial drivers of regional climate. The models indicate that the study region’s climate variability is dominated by oceanic drivers, with secondary contributions from soil moisture and very modest impacts from vegetation. Overall, the general model consensus of future projections indicates a concerning diminished seasonal predictability of sub-Saharan African regional climate based on key oceanic and terrestrial predictors and an elevated role of the land surface (associated with soil moisture anomalies) compared to oceanic drivers in regulating regional climate variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Climate hazard indices projections based on CORDEX-CORE, CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensemble

The CORDEX-CORE initiative was developed with the aim of producing homogeneous regional climate model (RCM) projections over domains world wide. In its first phase, two RCMs were run at 0.22° resolution downscaling 3 global climate models (GCMs) from the CMIP5 program for 9 CORDEX domains and two climate scenarios, the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. The CORDEX-CORE simulations along with the CMIP5 GCM ensemble and the most recently produced CMIP6 GCM ensemble are analyzed, with focus on several temperature, heat, wet and dry hazard indicators for present day and mid-century and far future time slices. The CORDEX-CORE ensemble shows a better performance than the driving GCMs for several hazard indices due to its higher spatial resolution. For the far future time slice the 3 ensembles project an increase in all temperature and heat indices analyzed under the RCP8.5 scenario. The largest increases are always shown by the CMIP6 ensemble, except for Tx > 35 °C, for which the CORDEX-CORE projects higher warming. Extreme wet and flood prone maxima are projected to increase by the RCM ensemble over the la Plata basin in South America, the Congo basin in Africa, east North America, north east Europe, India and Indochina, regions where a better performance is obtained, whereas the GCM ensembles show small or negligible signals. Furthermore, compound hazard hotspots based on heat, drought and wet indicators are detected in each continent worldwide in region like Central America, the Amazon, the Mediterranean, South Africa and Australia, where a linear relation is shown between the heatwave and drought change signal, and region like Arabian peninsula, the central and south east Africa region (SEAF), the north west America (NWN), south east Asia, India, China and central and northern European regions (WCE, NEU) where the same linear relation is found for extreme precipitation and HW increases. Although still limited, the CORDEX-CORE initiative was able to produce high resolution climate projections with almost global coverage and can provide an important resource for impact assessment and climate service activities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗