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At least 847 records · Page 47

Software Validation Work With The ZPPR-15 Data

The analysis activities for fast reactors involve using many different pieces of software that are relied upon for their predictive capabilities. For this software to be considered reliable, documented proof that the predictions of the software are accurate is required. In this manuscript, the validation work that covers some of the Argonne software used in fast reactor design activities is discussed and displayed. This validation work includes neutron and gamma flux distributions, reaction rate distributions, and reactivity worth. In an ideal world, a reactor development program would have access to a comprehensive set of experimental facilities to help inform the design aspects of the reactor itself. While thermal-hydraulics experiments, and to a limited degree mechanical experiments, can be carried out today for validation needs, neutronics related experimental facilities are rather impractical because of the lack of experimental facilities. Given the desired time table for construction of new reactors, the reconstitution or creation of new neutronic experimental facilities is untenable and thus those reactor development programs must rely upon any available experimental measurements that are qualitatively similar to the design. While a methodology has been proposed to assess the similarity between the past experimental measurements and the reactor itself, that aspect is beyond the scope of this manuscript. In this manuscript, the focus is entirely placed on the analysis results for a series of experiments carried out at the ZPPR facility in Idaho in the mid-1980s. In this regard, this manuscript only shows the validation of the stated neutronics software for specific loadings of the ZPPR reactor. Because of the fuel form, its proposed enrichment, and the material content of the reactor core, the ZPPR-15 experiments were identified as potential validation data for the reactor. The ZPPR-15 experiments were intended as mockups of a 330 MWe Integral Fast Reactor program which was a follow on program to the Clinch River Breeder Reactor. In the ZPPR-15 series of experiments, measurements of the neutron spectrum, control rod worth, sodium void worth, foil reaction rate distributions, Doppler worth of heated samples, gamma dose, and axial expansion worth were all carried out and published. In many cases, these reactivity coefficients are good candidates to validate the reactivity coefficient calculation scheme used by the analysis software and included in the safety analysis activities of fast reactor development projects today. This manuscript discusses the modeling methodology and accuracy of the calculated experimental results using the LANL software MCNP and the ANL software package ARC (Argonne Reactor Codes). As will be shown, for many of the experimental measurements, the two software packages are found to be good predictive analysis tools for those experiments. In other cases, problems with the analysis methodology or underlying cross section data are exposed which indicates where predictive analysis is not as reliable. Finally, in some of the measurements the conclusion is reached that the experimental measurement cannot be reproduced with the analysis software as it is simply too difficult.

Aliberti, Gerardo↗

Aeroelastic Analysis of a Flexible Wing Wind Tunnel Model with Variable Camber Continuous Trailing Edge Flap Design

This paper presents data analysis of a flexible wing wind tunnel model with a variable camber continuous trailing edge flap (VCCTEF) design for drag minimization tested at the University of Washington Aeronautical Laboratory (UWAL). The wind tunnel test was designed to explore the relative merit of the VCCTEF concept for improved cruise efficiency through the use of low-cost aeroelastic model test techniques. The flexible wing model is a 10%-scale model of a typical transport wing and is constructed of woven fabric composites and foam core. The wing structural stiffness in bending is tailored to be half of the stiffness of a Boeing 757-era transport wing while the torsional stiffness is about the same. This stiffness reduction results in a wing tip deflection of about 10% of the wing semi-span. The VCCTEF is a multi-segment flap design having three chordwise camber segments and five spanwise flap sections for a total of 15 individual flap elements. The three chordwise camber segments can be positioned appropriately to create a desired trailing edge camber. Elastomeric material is used to cover the gaps in between the spanwise flap sections, thereby creating a continuous trailing edge. Wind tunnel data analysis conducted previously shows that the VCCTEF can achieve a drag reduction of up to 6.31% and an improvement in the lift-to-drag ratio (L=D) of up to 4.85%. A method for estimating the bending and torsional stiffnesses of the flexible wingUWAL wind tunnel model from static load test data is presented. The resulting estimation indicates that the stiffness of the flexible wing is significantly stiffer in torsion than in bending by as much as 9 to 1. The lift prediction for the flexible wing is computed by a coupled aerodynamic-structural model. The coupled model is developed by coupling a conceptual aerodynamic tool Vorlax with a finite-element model of the flexible wing via an automated geometry deformation tool. Based on the comparison of the lift curve slope, the lift prediction for the rigid wing is in good agreement with the estimated lift coefficients derived from the wind tunnel test data. Due to the movement of the VCCTEF during the wind tunnel test, uncertainty in the lift prediction due to the indicated variations of the VCCTEF deflection is studied. The results show a significant spread in the lift prediction which contradicts the consistency in the aerodynamic measurements, thus suggesting that the indicated variations as measured by the VICON system may not be reliable. The lift prediction of the flexible wing agrees very well with the measured lift curve for the baseline configuration. The computed bending deflection and wash-out twist of the flexible wing also match reasonably well with the aeroelastic deflection measurements. The results demonstrate the validity of the aerodynamic-structural tool for use to analyze aerodynamic performance of flexible wings.

Wind Tunnel↗

All-purpose, all-sky photometric redshifts for the Legacy Imaging Surveys Data Release 8

ABSTRACT In this paper, we present photometric redshift (photo-z) estimates for the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Legacy Imaging Surveys, currently the most sensitive optical survey covering the majority of the extragalactic sky. Our photo-z methodology is based on a machine-learning approach, using sparse Gaussian processes augmented with Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) that allow regions of parameter space to be identified and trained separately in a purely data-driven way. The same GMMs are also used to calculate cost-sensitive learning weights that mitigate biases in the spectroscopic training sample. By design, this approach aims to produce reliable and unbiased predictions for all parts of the parameter space present in wide area surveys. Compared to previous literature estimates using the same underlying photometry, our photo-zs are significantly less biased and more accurate at z > 1, with negligible loss in precision or reliability for resolved galaxies at z < 1. Our photo-z estimates offer accurate predictions for rare high-value populations within the parent sample, including optically selected quasars at the highest redshifts (z > 6), as well as X-ray or radio continuum selected populations across a broad range of flux (densities) and redshift. Deriving photo-z estimates for the full Legacy Imaging Surveys Data Release 8, the catalogues provided in this work offer photo-z estimates predicted to be of high quality for ≳9 × 108 galaxies over ${\sim}19\, 400\, \text{deg}^{2}$ and spanning 0 < z ≲ 7, offering one of the most extensive samples of redshift estimates ever produced.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Reliability Driven Space Logistics Demand Analysis

Accurate selection of the quantity of logistic support resources has a strong influence on mission success, system availability and the cost of ownership. At the same time the accurate prediction of these resources depends on the accurate prediction of the reliability measures of the items involved. This paper presents a method for the advanced and accurate calculation of the reliability measures of complex space systems which are the basis for the determination of the demands for logistics resources needed during the operational life or mission of space systems. The applicability of the method presented is demonstrated through several examples.

Knezevic, J.↗

Machine Learning-Based Process Control for Injection Molding of Recycled Polypropylene

The increased interest in artificial intelligence in manufacturing has driven the adoption of machine learning to optimize processes and improve efficiency. A key challenge in injection molding is the variability of recycled materials, which affects part quality and processing stability. This study presents a novel closed-loop process control approach for injection molding, leveraging machine learning to adaptively predict processing inputs and quality outcomes. The methodology was tested on five blends of recycled polypropylene (rPP), using artificial neural networks (ANNs), linear regression, and polynomial regression to model the relationships between material properties and process parameters. The dataset was split 80/20 into training and testing sets. The ANN model was implemented using TensorFlow and Keras, with six hidden layers of 32 neurons per layer, ReLU activation, and an Adam optimizer. Empirical tuning and early stopping were used to optimize performance and prevent overfitting. Predictions were evaluated based on mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), and percentage error. The results showed that yield stress, ultimate elongation, and part weight were accurately predicted within a 5% error for linear and polynomial regression models and within a 10% error for the ANN. However, modulus predictions were less reliable, with errors of ~11% for ANN and linear regression and ~40% for polynomial regression, reflecting the inherent variability of this property in rPP blends. Predictions of processing inputs had errors ranging from 3% to 25%, depending on the model and response variable. No single modeling approach was consistently superior across all responses, highlighting the complexity of the relationship between material properties, process parameters, and quality metrics. Overall, the work demonstrates that closed-loop process control, powered by machine learning, can effectively predict key quality parameters in injection molding of recycled materials. The proposed approach can improve process stability and material utilization, facilitating increased adoption of sustainable materials.

Krantz, Joshua↗

Bayesian Estimation of the D(p,γ) 3 He Thermonuclear Reaction Rate

Big bang nucleosynthesis (BBN) is the standard model theory for the production of the light nuclides during the early stages of the universe, taking place for a period of about 20 minutes after the big bang. Deuterium production, in particular, is highly sensitive to the primordial baryon density and the number of neutrino species, and its abundance serves as a sensitive test for the conditions in the early universe. The comparison of observed deuterium abundances with predicted ones requires reliable knowledge of the relevant thermonuclear reaction rates, and their corresponding uncertainties. Recent observations reported the primordial deuterium abundance with percent accuracy, but some theoretical predictions based on BBN are at tension with the measured values because of uncertainties in the cross section of the deuterium-burning reactions. In this work, we analyze the S-factor of the D(p,γ) 3 He reaction using a hierarchical Bayesian model. We take into account the results of eleven experiments, spanning the period of 1955--2021; more than any other study. We also present results for two different fitting functions, a two-parameter function based on microscopic nuclear theory and a four-parameter polynomial. Furthermore, our recommended reaction rates have a 2.2\% uncertainty at 0.8~GK, which is the temperature most important for deuterium BBN. Differences between our rates and previous results are discussed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Forest fire threatens global carbon sinks and population centres under rising atmospheric water demand

Levels of fire activity and severity that are unprecedented in the instrumental record have recently been observed in forested regions around the world. Using a large sample of daily fire events and hourly climate data, here we show that fire activity in all global forest biomes responds strongly and predictably to exceedance of thresholds in atmospheric water demand, as measured by maximum daily vapour pressure deficit. The climatology of vapour pressure deficit can therefore be reliably used to predict forest fire risk under projected future climates. We find that climate change is projected to lead to widespread increases in risk, with at least 30 additional days above critical thresholds for fire activity in forest biomes on every continent by 2100 under rising emissions scenarios. Escalating forest fire risk threatens catastrophic carbon losses in the Amazon and major population health impacts from wildfire smoke in south Asia and east Africa.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A simulation model for risk assessment of turbine wheels

A simulation model has been successfully developed to evaluate the risk of the Space Shuttle auxiliary power unit (APU) turbine wheels for a specific inspection policy. Besides being an effective tool for risk/reliability evaluation, the simulation model also allows the analyst to study the trade-offs between wheel reliability, wheel life, inspection interval, and rejection crack size. For example, in the APU application, sensitivity analysis results showed that the wheel life limit has the least effect on wheel reliability when compared to the effect of the inspection interval and the rejection crack size. In summary, the simulation model developed represents a flexible tool to predict turbine wheel reliability and study the risk under different inspection policies.

Safie, Fayssal M.↗

Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program: Use of Time Distributions to Predict Operator Procedure Performance in Dynamic Human Reliability Analysis

The Human Unimodel for Nuclear Technology to Enhance Reliability (HUNTER) framework affords software capable of conducting human reliability analysis (HRA) using a dynamic approach built around operating procedures (OPs) from nuclear power plants (NPPs). Previous HUNTER reports document the development of this software tool, the coupling of HUNTER to the simulator code, the collection of operator performance data by using simulators to calibrate HUNTER models, and linking HUNTER to probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) software. The present report largely addresses two topics. The first is a new function in HUNTER called the HUNTER Procedure Performance Predictor (P3). HUNTER P3 uses HUNTER’s built in Monte Carlo tools featuring human performance variability to identify potential error traps in procedures. The second topic is time distribution analysis to generate time inputs for dynamic HRA. The current analysis was performed to investigate time distributions for task primitives, which are the minimum task unit of analysis used in dynamic HRA modeling. Using the time distribution data, the elapsed time for human actions in an extended loss of AC power (ELAP) scenario is then investigated. Time data and prediction are essential for modeling procedure performance.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Mathematical model to estimate risk of calcium-containing renal stones

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Astronauts exposed to microgravity during the course of spaceflight undergo physiologic changes that alter the urinary environment so as to increase the risk of renal stone formation. This study was undertaken to identify a simple method with which to evaluate the potential risk of renal stone development during spaceflight. METHOD: We used a large database of urinary risk factors obtained from 323 astronauts before and after spaceflight to generate a mathematical model with which to predict the urinary supersaturation of calcium stone forming salts. RESULT: This model, which involves the fewest possible analytical variables (urinary calcium, citrate, oxalate, phosphorus, and total volume), reliably and accurately predicted the urinary supersaturation of the calcium stone forming salts when compared to results obtained from a group of 6 astronauts who collected urine during flight. CONCLUSIONS: The use of this model will simplify both routine medical monitoring during spaceflight as well as the evaluation of countermeasures designed to minimize renal stone development. This model also can be used for Earth-based applications in which access to analytical resources is limited.

NASA Center JSC↗

Predicting Satellite Close Approaches Using Statistical Parameters in the Context of Artificial Intelligence

In order to ensure a sustainable use of low earth orbit in particular and near Earth space in general, reliable and effective close approach prediction be-tween space objects is key. Only this allows for efficient and timely colli-sion avoidance. Space Situational Awareness (SSA) for commercial and government missions will be facing the rapidly growing amount of small and potentially less agile satellites as well as debris in the near earth realm, such as the increase in CubeSat launches and upcoming large constellations. At the same time, space object detection capabilities are expected to increase significantly, allowing for the reliable detection of smaller objects, e.g. when the Air Force Space Fence radar becomes operational. In combination, the space object catalog is expected to increase tremendously in size. In this paper, we introduce an investigative approach based on the latest capabili-ties in artificial intelligence in fostering the potential for fast and accurate close approach predictions. We consider the study of statistical and infor-mation theory parameters in contrast and complementary to the classical probability of collision computation alone, in order to determine the feasi-bility of reliably predicting close approaches.

Mashiku, A.↗

Predicting Satellite Close Approaches Using Statistical Parameters in the Context of Artificial Intelligence

In order to ensure a sustainable use of low earth orbit in particular and near Earth space in general, reliable and effective close approach prediction be-tween space objects is key. Only this allows for efficient and timely colli-sion avoidance. Space Situational Awareness (SSA) for commercial and government missions will be facing the rapidly growing amount of small and potentially less agile satellites as well as debris in the near earth realm, such as the increase in CubeSat launches and upcoming large constellations. At the same time, space object detection capabilities are expected to increase significantly, allowing for the reliable detection of smaller objects, e.g. when the Air Force Space Fence radar becomes operational. In combination, the space object catalog is expected to increase tremendously in size. In this paper, we introduce an investigative approach based on the latest capabili-ties in artificial intelligence in fostering the potential for fast and accurate close approach predictions. We consider the study of statistical and infor-mation theory parameters in contrast and complementary to the classical probability of collision computation alone, in order to determine the feasi-bility of reliably predicting close approaches.

Mashiku, Alinda↗

Reliability of emergency and standby diesel generators: Impact on energy resiliency solutions

Emergency diesel generators are the most common form of backup power for critical loads when the grid fails and are most often deployed as stand-alone generators (<2000 kW) tied to individual buildings for hospitals, emergency services, military bases, ports, airports, industries, and commercial facilities. Understanding the finite reliability of emergency diesel generators during continuous operation is critical for energy planners, managers, and end-users. A new analysis of two large non-public emergency diesel generator operational data sets shows that commonly used reliability metrics are inadequate to predict the performance during a grid outage. Additional metrics addressing the likelihood of an emergency diesel generator to be available at the time an outage starts, successfully start and carry load, and constantly run for the duration of the outage are needed to predict the continuous run-time reliability of emergency diesel generators during a grid outage. This is the first analysis of the reliability of modern generators that follow standard maintenance protocols commonly used for backup power and these new metrics are shown to be dependent on the level of emergency diesel generator maintenance with values that can vary by more than an order of magnitude. Even using the new metrics for well-maintained emergency diesel generators, the analysis shows that the single emergency diesel generators configurations are only 80% likely to provide power for the duration of a two-week grid outage.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,POWER TRANSMI↗

Training Data Requirement for a Neural Network to Predict Aerodynamic Coefficients

Basic aerodynamic coefficients are modeled as functions of angle of attack, speed brake deflection angle, Mach number, and side slip angle. Most of the aerodynamic parameters can be well-fitted using polynomial functions. We previously demonstrated that a neural network is a fast, reliable way of predicting aerodynamic coefficients. We encountered few under fitted and/or over fitted results during prediction. The training data for the neural network are derived from wind tunnel test measurements and numerical simulations. The basic questions that arise are: how many training data points are required to produce an efficient neural network prediction, and which type of transfer functions should be used between the input-hidden layer and hidden-output layer. In this paper, a comparative study of the efficiency of neural network prediction based on different transfer functions and training dataset sizes is presented. The results of the neural network prediction reflect the sensitivity of the architecture, transfer functions, and training dataset size.

Korsmeyer, David↗

Prediction of Aerodynamic Coefficients using Neural Networks for Sparse Data

Basic aerodynamic coefficients are modeled as functions of angles of attack and sideslip with vehicle lateral symmetry and compressibility effects. Most of the aerodynamic parameters can be well-fitted using polynomial functions. In this paper a fast, reliable way of predicting aerodynamic coefficients is produced using a neural network. The training data for the neural network is derived from wind tunnel test and numerical simulations. The coefficients of lift, drag, pitching moment are expressed as a function of alpha (angle of attack) and Mach number. The results produced from preliminary neural network analysis are very good.

Rajkumar, T.↗

Automated System Checkout to Support Predictive Maintenance for the Reusable Launch Vehicle

The Propulsion Checkout and Control System (PCCS) is a predictive maintenance software system. The real-time checkout procedures and diagnostics are designed to detect components that need maintenance based on their condition, rather than using more conventional approaches such as scheduled or reliability centered maintenance. Predictive maintenance can reduce turn-around time and cost and increase safety as compared to conventional maintenance approaches. Real-time sensor validation, limit checking, statistical anomaly detection, and failure prediction based on simulation models are employed. Multi-signal models, useful for testability analysis during system design, are used during the operational phase to detect and isolate degraded or failed components. The TEAMS-RT real-time diagnostic engine was developed to utilize the multi-signal models by Qualtech Systems, Inc. Capability of predicting the maintenance condition was successfully demonstrated with a variety of data, from simulation to actual operation on the Integrated Propulsion Technology Demonstrator (IPTD) at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). Playback of IPTD valve actuations for feature recognition updates identified an otherwise undetectable Main Propulsion System 12 inch prevalve degradation. The algorithms were loaded into the Propulsion Checkout and Control System for further development and are the first known application of predictive Integrated Vehicle Health Management to an operational cryogenic testbed. The software performed successfully in real-time, meeting the required performance goal of 1 second cycle time.

Patterson-Hine, Ann↗

Identification and Study of Validation Level Test Cases for Computational Modeling of Non-Charring Ablators

Computational modeling of Thermal Protection System (TPS) materials, used for aerospace applications, provides numerous advantages in preliminary selection and design of a heatshield material and shape for atmospheric entry vehicles. However, to serve as a reliable tool for prediction of material thermal and ablative behavior, the modeling approach needs to be validated against real experimental and flight data, preferably at a range of applied conditions. The validation study is typically very complex as it requires reliable measured data not only for the material thermal response and surface recession, but also well characterized environmental conditions. The validation problem becomes even more complex when the material thermal response is dictated by multi-physics effects such as solid conduction, in-depth thermal decomposition, pyrolysis gas flow and chemical reactions. The multi-physics effects complicate not only the modeling effort, but also the experimental measurement for validation of various aspects of the highly coupled problem. In this study, an attempt is made to identify suitable experimental data that could serve as a source for validation of material thermal response modeling tools. To reduce the computational complexity, this study focuses only on non-charring ablators, where the material thermal response could be modeled with a single governing equation for solid conduction and the ablation is limited only to the surface of the material. With a well characterized and publicly available experimental data being sparse, the study is limited in presenting test cases for only three materials: camphor, graphite and FiberForm® in the sequence of increased modeling complexity. Graphite is a commonly used TPS material for aerospace applications, both for leading edges of high-speed vehicles and internal insulation of solid rocket motors. FiberForm® is a porous carbon pre-form used in preparation of the well known PICA material Tran et al. [1996]. Inclusion of camphor into the list is conditioned with the relative simplicity in modeling the material thermal and chemical response and the low-enthalpy flow environment. In addition, camphor has been used as a simple test material for study of flow transition behavior by Stock and Ginoux [1973] and assessment of a heatshield shape change at flight relevant conditions by Rotondi et al. [2022]. In this work, the identified experimental data was extracted from the public literature and test cases that yet have been published. As it was found from the review, not a single test case contains an exhaustive set of data that would validate every aspect of the material physics. However, in the data collected, various aspects of the material behavior can be still validated, such as surface and in-depth temperature, amount of recession and a shape change. The identified experimental data for each case is accompanied with a characterized flow environment and simulated boundary conditions predicted by a Data-Parallel Line Relaxation (DPLR) code Wright et al. [1998]. In addition, material thermal response numerical simulations in each test case are performed with Kentucky Aerothermodynamics and Thermal Response System (KATS-MR) Zibitsker et al. [2022] providing a comparative study and a sanity check for the proposed validation data. Sample results from the performed numerical study are shown below. Figure 1 shows distribution of surface heat flux and pressure values on a hemi-cylinder model made of FiberForm® and tested in HyMETS arc-jet facility. The results are shown for the high pressure condition among the two tests. Flow simulation was performed with DPLR code on a quarter of original geometry. In the figure, the quarter shape was mirrored across zx and xy planes to show the complete distribution. Figure 2 shows the material response results for the high pressure case (7500 Pa), simulated with KATS-MR and a comparison to the experimental data for the surface temperature and shape shape. The simulation was performed on a 2-D slice, extracted in the xy plane at the middle of the sample. Figure 3 shows the material response simulation for the low pressure case (3500 Pa) and a comparison to the experimental data for surface temperature and shape change.

ablation↗

Improved Performance and Safety for High Energy Batteries Through Use of Hazard Anticipation and Capacity Prediction

Prediction of the capacity remaining in used high rate, high energy batteries is important information to the user. Knowledge of the capacity remaining in used batteries results in better utilization. This translates into improved readiness and cost savings due to complete, efficient use. High rate batteries, due to their chemical nature, are highly sensitive to misuse (i.e., over discharge or very high rate discharge). Battery failure due to misuse or manufacturing defects could be disastrous. Since high rate, high energy batteries are expensive and energetic, a reliable method of predicting both failures and remaining energy has been actively sought. Due to concerns over safety, the behavior of lithium/sulphur dioxide cells at different temperatures and current drains was examined. The main thrust of this effort was to determine failure conditions for incorporation in hazard anticipation circuitry. In addition, capacity prediction formulas have been developed from test data. A process that performs continuous, real-time hazard anticipation and capacity prediction was developed. The introduction of this process into microchip technology will enable the production of reliable, safe, and efficient high energy batteries.

Atwater, Terrill↗