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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2024

Copper and bismuth-based sorbent characterization in simulated iodine off-gas streams

The effective capture of volatile radioiodine, a fission product present in used nuclear fuel (UNF), is of paramount importance for development of used fuel reprocessing schemes to prevent release of radioiodine during unit operations and to meet regulatory standards for air emissions. A well-studied method for iodine capture in off-gas streams is the use of silver-functionalized zeolite phases (AgZ), which exploit chemisorption of I to Ag. Advances into other Ag-functionalized materials, including aerogels and metal organic frameworks (MOFs), are underway [1]. Additional metals with the capability to chemisorb iodine, including Cu, Bi, and Sn, [1] are being evaluated as alternatives to Ag for potential applicability to iodine management in off-gas systems. The design of novel functionalized sorbents with Cu and Bi, including composites with metal particles embedded in PAN substrates [2] and composites with metal sulfides embedded in PAN [3], is an ongoing area of study for improved iodine capture. Previously reported work on novel PAN-based metal sorbents has provided the synthesis, characterization, and iodine capture efficiency of this new class of sorbent. Specifically, the metal sulfide PAN composites are found to be easy to produce and reproduce, as well as having a high iodine loading potential under static conditions [3]. Due to the favorable testing previously performed with metal sulfide PAN composites, further testing into the performance of these composites under gas streams containing I2(g) in combination with NO2(g) and H2O(g) is needed. Humid streams of NO2(g) may arise from dissolver off-gas streams, when used fuel is dissolved in HNO3(aq) [4]. NO2(g) has been found to reduce AgZ sorption capacity for I because of oxidation of Ag, the chemisorbing agent, to Ag2O [5]. It follows that performance evaluation of novel sorbents under highly oxidizing conditions such as NO2(g) streams is critical. Therefore, the objective of this study is to determine the effect of flowing NO2(g) and H2O(g) streams on iodine sorption capacity and sorbent performance. This work utilizes custom-built gas handling capabilities for sorbent exposure along with solid-state characterization techniques to assess the physical and chemical properties of sorbents before and after exposure.

copper, bismuth, iodine capture, iodine sorbent, p↗
DOE OSTI2025

Characterization of Field-Exposed Photovoltaic Modules Featuring Signs of Contact Degradation

Here, this work investigates several photovoltaic (PV) modules that have shown signs of metal contact corrosion due to field exposure in a hot and humid climate. This includes two multicrystalline silicon aluminum back surface field systems with 10 and 14 years of exposure and one monocrystalline silicon passivated emitter and rear cell system with four years of exposure. A comprehensive, multiscale characterization process is used to evaluate these PV modules in great detail. Current–voltage (I−V), Suns-V OC measurements, electroluminescence imaging, infrared imaging, and ultraviolet fluorescence imaging were performed, and locations of interest were cored and analyzed using cross-sectional scanning electron microscopy (SEM). A rigorous, quantitative analysis procedure for the cross-sectional SEM images is proposed and implemented. Careful characterization does reveal that some of these PV modules do indeed exhibit the same classic signs of acetic-acid-based corrosion of the glass frit that is present at the silver/silicon interface, which have been observed previously in PV modules exposed to damp heat in an environmental chamber.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Investigation of Flux Spreading in a Light-Trapping, Planar-Cavity Receiver for Enclosed Solar Particle Heating

Concentrating solar thermal power (CSP) technology development has recently focused on increasing the operating temperatures to accommodate high efficiency power cycles and thermochemical processes. Inert solid particles as heat transfer media enable solar receivers to operate above 700 degrees Celsius resulting in increased system thermal efficiency compared to the conventional molten salt based CSP system. An open-cavity falling-particle solar receiver that can efficiently heat particles by direct heating from concentrated solar radiation faces challenges with large particle losses from wind and unable to support thermochemical reactions. A light-trapping, planar cavity reiver (LTPCR) where particles are indirectly heated can significantly minimize the particle losses during the operation, support thermochemical reactions, and offer scalability potential. The LTPCR features an array of vertical planar receiver/absorber panels arranged within a cavity configuration. Concentrated solar radiation from heliostats is focused onto the receiver walls, where heat is indirectly transferred to solid particles flowing inside the receiver channels. Heat transfer occurs through direct contact between the receiver panel walls and particles, and can be enhanced by fluidizing particles with air. This fluidization increases particle-wall contact and extends particle residence time, maximizing heat transfer efficiency. The unique vertical planar receiver structure originated from a near-blackbody tubular light absorber, effectively distributing the incoming solar beam spread across the panel walls and trapping light. This flux spreading effect, driven by cosine projection, converts high incident solar flux into a lower, more uniform heat flux on the panel walls. This redistribution enhances heat transfer efficiency between particle-wall or reaction gases-wall, while preventing localized overheating of the receiver panel. Indirect planar cavity solar receivers completely separate solid particles from the ambient environment that can greatly reduce the thermal losses in heated particles resulting in high efficiency at high temperatures above 700 degrees Celsius. This design ensures no particle losses to the environment during the operation while open-cavity designs can experience significant particle losses from wind. An experimental investigation was conducted to observe flux spreading on the receiver panel wall. A lab-scale prototype planar receiver, fabricated using Haynes 230 alloy, was tested under direct concentrated solar radiation using the high-flux solar furnace (HFSF) facility at NREL. The experiment was performed under normal peak radiative heat fluxes ranging from 800 to 1900 kW/m2. A temperature distribution on the panel wall was measured using a thermal imaging camera (FLIR A 6600). To prevent overheating at the receiver front tip, prism-shaped heat shields (Zircar UNIFROM C1) were placed in front of the receiver, and their influence on flux spreading was also studied. Absorbed flux distribution on the panel wall was modeled using SolTrace. The total solar power and flux distributions delivered from HFSF were determined based on the heliostat mirror optical properties, direct normal irradiance (DNI) on the on-sun testing days, peak flux measurement during the on-sun testing, and shutter/attenuator settings Due to the large incident angles of the solar beam on the panel wall, the angular optical properties of Haynes 230 alloy and Zircar heat shields were incorporated into the model. This flux distribution model was then integrated into a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation to predict the receiver panel wall temperature, which was compared with the experimental measurements. Both prediction and measurements identified a temperature hotspot at the backside of the panel, indicating that the incident solar beam can fully reach to the rear of the receiver. The heat shields positioned at the front of the receiver effectively reduced the excessive temperature rise at the receiver front tip. Overall, the temperature was well distributed over the panel wall, with a minor hotspot at the back of the receiver. The model slightly overpredicted the temperature, possibly due to discrepancies in optical properties of the panel and an underprediction of thermal loss in the receiver. The advancement of the particle LTPCR offers a viable alternative to open-cavity receivers by addressing particle loss issues. Additionally, it presents a pathway for enabling solar thermochemical processes, extending CSP technology beyond power generation to fuel and chemical production.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2016

String flash-boiling in gasoline direct injection simulations with transient needle motion

A computational study was performed to investigate the influence of transient needle motion on gasoline direct injection (GDI) internal nozzle flow and near-field sprays. Simulations were conducted with a compressible Eulerian flow solver modeling liquid, vapor, and non-condensable gas phases with a diffuse interface. Variable rate generation and condensation of fuel vapor were captured using the homogeneous relaxation model (HRM). The non-flashing (spray G) and flashing (spray G2) conditions specified by the Engine Combustion Network were modeled using the nominal spray G nozzle geometry and transient needle lift and wobble were based upon ensemble averaged x-ray imaging preformed at Argonne National Lab. The minimum needle lift simulated was 5 μm and dynamic mesh motion was achieved with Laplacian smoothing. The results were qualitatively validated against experimental imaging and the experimental rate of injection profile was captured accurately using pressure boundary conditions and needle motion to actu- ate the injection. Needle wobble was found to have no measurable effect on the flow. Low needle lift is shown to result in vapor generation as fuel rushes past the needle. In conclusion, the internal injector flow is shown to contain many transient and interacting vortices which cause perturbations in the spray angle, fluctuations in the mass flux, and frequently result in string flash-boiling.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Testing of Novel Semiconductor Opening Switches Using Magnetic Switching

The performance of semiconductor opening switch (SOS) diodes with different doping profiles is assessed with the primary aim of enhancing or substituting hard-to-find devices. SOS devices are capable of providing long lifetime, gigawatt level pulses in generators with risetimes on the nanosecond scale with pulse widths on the order of 20 ns. An experimental testbed is described which allows for rapid testing of diodes with control of the forward pumping time which is a crucial parameter of SOS diodes. A saturable pulse transformer provides both the initial voltage multiplication and reverse current pulse required to drive SOS diodes. Voltage multiplication ratios of 16:1 were achieved with a modest charging voltage of 800 V and simple circuitry. With current densities of up to 1.4 kA ⋅ cm -2 , the testbed produces 10 kV output pulses into a 56 Ω load with a pulsewidth of 16 ns and delivered power of up to 1.9 MW. These novel devices are compared to legacy SOS diodes originating from Russia, with one of the profiles yielding increased performance. Finally, these profiles are studied in hopes of creating manufacturing demand to augment the availability of these useful devices.

drift step recovery diodes↗
DOE OSTI2025

Net Present Value Optimization of a Natural Gas Combined Cycle Plant with CO 2 Capture using a Water-Lean Solvent Considering Transient Electricity Price for Multiple Regions

Global CO 2 emissions are increasing at about a 1.5% rate per year. Fossil fuel-based plants are one of the main contributors to this rise. In the power generation industry, fossil fuel plants are dominant, and many plants are under development. In this study, a natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) power plant with postcombustion capture using a leading water-lean solvent is considered. For optimal design and operating schedule, large-scale dynamic optimization is undertaken for net present value (NPV) optimization. The first principle dynamic model of NGCC is developed, including a model of the highly efficient H-class gas turbines. For computational tractability of the dynamic optimization problem, a reduced-order model is developed by using the Hankel singular value decomposition. A waterlean solvent, N-(2-ethoxyethyl)-3-morpholinopropan-1-amine, is used for carbon capture. A model of the capture system is developed in Aspen Plus, which is used to develop a reduced-order model by using ALAMO, a machine learning software. In addition, a reduced model of the CO 2 compression system with a dehydration unit is also considered. The integrated system is used for NPV optimization by using the Python-based PYOMO platform. The PCC process is analyzed for three configurations-conventional packed bed, rotating packed bed (RPB), and a combination of RPB and direct contact cooler. The NPV optimization is performed for 14 regional markets by considering year-long clustered and continuous locational marginal price data with a 1 h interval. Optimization results show that the PCC can achieve 90% CO 2 capture with a positive NPV for six regions. Sensitivity studies conducted by using the PCC configurations indicate that the process is economically feasible for 9 regions out of 14 regional electricity markets with NPV values in the range of 33−540 $MM.

cabon capture↗
DOE OSTI2026

Carbon fiber design improvements based on economic models

Circular fiber geometries are predominant in commercial carbon fiber material systems, but the use of this fiber shape has numerous limitations. Circular geometries have continuous symmetry, which is helpful for various processing considerations, but also have the largest possible maximum diffusion thickness for a given fiber area. This characteristic means that circular carbon fibers always have the highest material processing cost and lowest production throughput compared to any other fiber shape with the same area and tow count. To quantify material cost and other benefits for non-circular carbon fiber geometries, process models for polyacrylonitrile based carbon fiber production are developed in relationship to the carbon fiber shape, size, and tow count. For a given fiber shape, precursor production costs are shown to favor maximizing fiber size while conversion costs are minimized by the smallest fiber size. These competing cost trends result in a numerically optimal fiber size for a given shape and tow count, while both cost components are decreased by increasing tow count. Cost–performance tradeoffs for three lobe fiber geometries are studied by supplementing the cost trends with a numerical failure model to predict compressive strength for discrete shape variants. The shape selection is shown to be more sensitive to variations in cost than compressive strength while suboptimal shape designs can improve manufacturing robustness and achievable fiber volume fractions. Finally, an optimal three lobe carbon fiber is identified that balances the set of considerations while reducing costs and embodied energy and increasing production throughput compared to a commercial carbon fiber.

Carbon fiber↗
DOE OSTI2024

Commercialization of High-Density High Assay Low Enriched Uranium Fuel Systems

The Office of Reactor Conversion and Uranium Supply (NA 231) at the National Nuclear Security Administration leads the conversion effort for the United States High Performance Research Reactors (USHPRR). These reactors are the final civilian reactors in the US to transition from High Enriched Uranium (HEU) to high assay low enriched uranium (HALEU). Each of these reactors represents unique capabilities and no currently available fuel system meets their needs for conversion. The Fuel Fabrication (FF) Pillar of the USHPRR project is responsible for the fabrication of experimental elements, conversion elements, and establishing a commercial economical production capability. FF is also responsible to share with the domestic and international community the theoretical knowledge gained. Other pillars within the USHPRR project provide the experimental and conversion fuel designs, assist the reactors with licensing activities, and ensure the entire fuel cycle is evaluated. Over the last decade, FF has worked with the production partners at Y-12 National Security Complex (Y-12) and BWXT Nuclear Operations Group, Research and Test Reactors (BWXT). Y-12 has begun processing the alloy feedstock for the conversion elements with a qualified process. BWXT has started the final fabrication of the experimental elements. Once the experimental elements are complete, BWXT will begin conversion element fabrication. The FF Pillar resides at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and uses PNNL, universities, commercial vendors, and the DOE national laboratory system to evaluate process development activities to improve the process steps. FF supports the fabrication of two high density fuel systems, monolithic U-10Mo (Figure 1) and Uranium Silicide (Figure 2). The U-10Mo fuel system is further along the development process. FF assists in long term planning with the production partners. This includes ramping production of the elements from experimental quantities to annual steady state needs. As part of the ramp up, opportunities to improve yield and product quality are identified to ensure the fuel systems are cost effective.

Catalan, Michael A. [BATTELLE (PACIFIC NW LAB)]↗
DOE OSTI2024

HAPPA: A Modular Platform for HPC Application Resilience Analysis with LLMs Embedded

High-performance computing (HPC) systems are increasingly vulnerable to soft errors, which pose significant challenges in maintaining computational accuracy and reliability. Predicting the resilience of HPC applications to these errors is crucial for robust code protection and detailed resilience analysis. In this study, we present HAppA, a modular platform designed for HPC Application Resilience Analysis. Embedding Large Language Models (LLMs), HAppA addresses understanding the context information of long code sequences typical in HPC applications. HAppA implements a novel code representation module that chunks the code into fixed-size segments and aggregates the embeddings of these segments. Three aggregation methods have been explored: MeanPooling, MaxPooling, and LSTM-based techniques. We built a DAtaset for REsilience analysis using Fault Injection (FI), named DARE. Using our DARE dataset, HAppA is trained for regression prediction tasks. Our evaluation results demonstrate the predictive accuracy of HAppA compared to other models, particularly noting that the LSTM-based aggregation method -- HAppA-LSTM -- achieves a mean squared error (MSE) of 0.078 for SDC prediction, surpassing the existing state-of-the-art PARIS model, which recorded an MSE of 0.1172. Additionally, HAppA with the KeyBERT model extracts a list of keywords representing the source code. A comprehensive importance analysis of these keywords further elucidates the code patterns contributing to the error rate. These findings highlight the effectiveness of HAppA in analyzing the resilience of HPC applications and establish a new benchmark for predictive accuracy in resilience.

Jiang, Hailong [Kent State University]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Basic Research Needs for Inverse Methods for Complex Systems under Uncertainty

Inverse problems, which aim to infer unknown properties of a system using experimental and observational data, are central to addressing many of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) most critical scientific and engineering challenges. Accurate, computationally efficient, and data-efficient solutions to inverse problems are essential for advancing DOE mission-critical science drivers, including analyzing data from large-scale experimental facilities, optimizing fusion reactor performance, accelerating materials discovery, enhancing geophysical imaging, improving wildfire predictions, and enabling autonomous systems and digital twins. However, these problems are becoming increasingly complex, often involving nonlinear, highdimensional, and interconnected systems and models that span multiple physics and scales, while relying on data with varying quantity, quality, and information content. Compounding these challenges is the uncertainty inherent in DOE-relevant systems, where errors in inputs, noise in data, incompleteness of data, and discrepancies between models and reality constrain the accuracy and precision of solutions. At the same time, the convergence of recent scientific computing trends—scientific machine learning, artificial intelligence, and computing advances such as exascale computing—is creating unprecedented opportunities for tackling these challenges. The cross-cutting nature of inverse problems, combined with their growing complexity and rapidly evolving data and algorithmic demands, strongly motivates the formulation of a prioritized research agenda to maximize their capabilities and impact. In response to this need, DOE’s Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) program in the Office of Science convened the Workshop on Basic Research Needs for Inverse Problems for Complex Systems Under Uncertainty in June 2025. This workshop brought together experts across disciplines to identify grand challenges and major opportunities in the field. Through collaborative discussions, the workshop defined transformative research directions aimed at addressing the mathematical, statistical, and computational challenges posed by inverse problems under uncertainty. As a result of these efforts, four priority research directions (PRDs) were identified to guide future research and development in this area. These PRDs, summarized below, represent a roadmap for advancing the foundational science and mathematics of inverse problems, enabling robust, scalable, and uncertainty-aware solutions that are critical for DOE applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2018

MULTI-PRED: A Software Module for Predictive Modeling of Coupled Multi-Physics Systems: User's Manual

This User’s Manual describes the code module MULTI-PRED, written in FORTRAN which implements the methodology for “predictive modeling of coupled multi-physics systems (PM-CMPS)” formulated by Cacuci (2014). This methodology fully takes into account the coupling terms between the systems but requires only the computational resources that would be needed to perform predictive modeling on each system separately. The PM-CMPS methodology uses the maximum entropy principle to construct an optimal approximation of the unknown a priori distribution based on a priori known mean values and uncertainties characterizing the experimental and computational parameters and results of interest responses, called for the multi-physics models under consideration. This “maximum entropy” a priori distribution is combined, using Bayes’ theorem, with the “likelihood” provided by the multi-physics simulation models to obtain a formal posterior distribution. Subsequently, the posterior distribution thus obtained is evaluated using the saddle-point method to obtain analytical expressions for the optimally predicted values for the multi-physics models parameters and responses along with corresponding reduced uncertainties. Noteworthy, the predictive modeling methodology for the coupled systems is constructed such that the systems can be considered sequentially rather than simultaneously, while preserving exactly the same results as if the systems were treated simultaneously. Consequently, very large coupled systems, which could perhaps exceed available computational resources if treated simultaneously, can be treated with the PM-CMPS methodology presented in this work sequentially and without any loss of generality or information, requiring just the resources that would be needed if the systems were treated sequentially. Three illustrative demonstration problems are also provided. The first problem presents the application of the PM-CMPS methodology to a simple particle diffusion problem which admits a closed-form analytical solution which facilitates a rapid understanding of this methodology and its predicted results. The second demonstration problem presents the application of the PM-CMPS methodology to the problem of inverse prediction, from detector responses in the presence of counting uncertainties, of the thickness of a homogeneous slab of material containing uniformly distributed gamma-emitting sources, for optically thin and thick slabs. This problem highlights the essential role played by the relative uncertainties (or, conversely, accuracies) of measured and computed responses. The third demonstration problem presents the application of the PM-CMPS methodology to the F-area cooling towers at the Savannah River National Lab. This problem demonstrates that the PM-CMPS methodology reduces the predicted response uncertainties not only at locations where measurements are available, but also at locations where measurements are not available.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Hanford Waste Treatment Plant LAB Facility Stack Effluent Monitoring: Sampling Probe Location Qualification Evaluation

The Waste Treatment Plant laboratory (LAB) facility stack monitor locations were qualified using scale model stacks to mitigate the risk of identifying that sampling locations do not meet the qualification criteria on the full-scale stack. As required by the American National Standards Institute/Health Physics Society (ANSI/HPS) N13.1-1999 standard, the scale model and its sampling location were geometrically similar to the actual stack, and the Reynolds numbers for both the actual and model stacks were >10,000. An additional criterion is that the product of the hydraulic diameter and mean velocity (DV) of the full-scale stack must be between 1/6 DV and 6 DV of the scale model stack tests. Verification tests of the LAB stacks were performed at normal operating conditions. The minimum 1/6 DV value, along with the maximum 6 DV value from the scale model testing, determines the range of conditions for which the full-scale stack may be operated and remain in compliance with the stack verification criterion. A practical range for the full-scale stack qualification uses the average DV through 6 DV from the scale model tests to compute the corresponding flow rates. Table S1 lists the operating flow rates along with the average and maximum qualified stack flow rates for each of the LAB facility stacks. For each stack, the operating flow is below the maximum qualified stack flow, which means that the scale model test results are acceptable for stack qualification. The remaining criteria for the stack verification to be considered valid involve the flow angle and velocity uniformity results. First, the flow angle at the full-scale stack must be ≤20°. Second, the velocity uniformity at the full-scale stack must be ≤20% coefficient of variance (COV). Finally, the velocity uniformity results for the actual and scale model stack tests must agree within 5% COV. These criteria were met through the full-scale stack tests at the LAB facility. Flow angle results were primarily less than 10°, except for the LB-C2 Fan A results, which were an average of 13.7°; all flow angle results were within the ≤20° criterion. The velocity uniformity results for each test condition averaged between 1.5 and 4.1% COV, which were all within the range of the target percent coefficient of variation values from the scale model tests. Based on these stack verification test results, the three LAB filtered exhaust stack sampling locations meet the qualification criteria provided in the ANSI/HPS N13.1-1999 standard for all fan operating configurations. This includes single-fan as well as dual-fan operations for LB-C2, each of the dual-fan operating conditions for LB-S1, and each single-fan operating condition for LB-S2. Further changes to the system configuration or operating conditions that are outside the bounds described in this report may require additional tests or analyses to determine compliance with the standard.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2019

Subtask 1.1 – Advanced Characterization of Unconventional Oil and Gas Reservoirs to Enhance CO2 Storage Resource Estimates

The Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) developed methods and approaches for advanced characterization of unconventional oil and gas reservoirs to enhance CO2 storage resource estimates using samples collected from organic-rich shales of the Bakken Formation. The project was funded under U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Cooperative Agreement No. DE-FE0024233, with nonfederal cost share provided by Hitachi High Technologies America. The project participants included the EERC, Hitachi High Technologies America, the team at the National Energy Technology Laboratory’s (NETL’s) computed tomography (CT) scanning laboratory in Morgantown, West Virginia, and several NETL staff who have worked on CO2 storage resource estimation. Investigations on the use of subsurface geologic formations for CO2 storage have been ongoing for many years. In the last decade, improvements in directional drilling technology and hydraulic fracturing of organic-rich shale and other tight rock formations have opened new opportunities for CO2 storage, with the potential cobenefit of enhancing gas and oil recovery. Gas-bearing, organic-rich shales have been of particular interest as a carbon storage target because their ability to store large volumes of CO2 is implied by their ability to store methane; however, estimating the CO2 storage resource of organic-rich shales and other unconventional reservoirs is challenging because of the lack of detailed geologic and petrophysical data that are needed to develop improved volumetric equations. According to NETL’s method for estimating regional-scale CO2 storage resources, the key factors that control CO2 storage in geologic formations include void space within induced fractures, natural fractures and matrix pores, as well as the occurrence and distribution of organic matter (OM) and clay minerals. A key goal of this effort was to use field emission scanning electron microscopy (FESEM) analysis of fine-grain unconventional reservoir rocks coupled with advanced image analysis and machine learning techniques to quantify the occurrence and distribution of porosity, OM, and clay minerals. By better understanding the potential migration pathways of CO2 within tight rocks and quantifying the occurrence of sorptive components (OM and clays) along potential flow pathways, methods to estimate the CO2 storage resource of such rocks can be refined. The Bakken petroleum system (Bakken) was used as the source of rock samples for this effort because it includes organic-rich shales with contrasting degrees of thermal maturity as well as tight, nonshale clastic rocks with varying clay mineral content. To better understand the key components of interest in tight rock samples, the EERC worked closely with Hitachi to optimize the FESEM settings necessary to resolve the sample mineralogy, porosity and OM content at micro- to nanoscale resolution. The EERC also worked closely with Hitachi to apply and improve its advanced mineral identification and characterization system (AMICS) software so that it is better suited for mineral identification at the high resolution necessary to resolve features of interest in fine-grained rocks such as organic-rich shales. The EERC also applied advanced image analysis software packages, including Ilastik, to classify and quantify the key components of interest within the samples using FESEM imagery. These advanced techniques allowed for quantification and differentiation of the void space within fractures, pores and OM, as well as a technique to determine and quantify the key mineral and OM components surrounding pore spaces. Being able to better quantify the void space and the potential accessibility of CO2 to sorptive minerals or OM within tight rocks allows for improved estimation of the CO2 storage resource potential of organic-rich shales and other unconventional formations. The information derived from the image analysis techniques was used to refine NETL’s method for estimating regional-scale CO2 storage resources in collaboration with staff from NETL. An additional goal of this work was to better understand rates of CO2 permeation, flow pathways, and sorption in organic-rich shales and nonshale reservoir rocks and to evaluate potential changes in CO2 flow over time. The EERC conducted long-duration (several weeks) CO2 flow-through testing at reservoir conditions using Bakken shale and nonshale samples to assess CO2 permeation rates and retention/sorption within core plugs to represent bulk matrix behavior. Conventional isothermal adsorption testing over a range of pressure conditions was also performed on pulverized Bakken samples to better assess potential maximum sorptive capacity of the samples. The results of this testing illustrated the higher sorptive capacity of the Bakken shales when compared to the sorptive capacity of the nonshale reservoir rock, which contains very little OM when compared to the Bakken shales. The results also illustrate the differences in permeation behavior as a function of fracture flow versus matrix flow. In an attempt to visualize CO2 permeation and flow behavior in Bakken shale samples over time, the EERC collaborated with NETL’s CT Lab in Morgantown, West Virginia. A variety of tests were performed at the NETL lab on unfractured and fractured samples of the Bakken shale. The unfractured Bakken shale samples did not result in CO2 migration within the samples over the testing duration; thus imagery of CO2 migration pathways within the matrix of Bakken samples was not obtained. The results of the flow-through testing within fractured samples illustrate changes in CO2 permeation rates over time, with a trend of decreasing CO2 flow over time. The results of this effort suggest that FESEM analysis coupled with advanced image analysis and machine learning techniques are effective in characterizing and quantifying the mineralogy, porosity, fractures, and OM content of 2-D imagery at the high resolution needed to identify features of interest in tight rocks. In addition, the image analysis techniques allow for identification and quantification of different porosity types as well as the key mineral components and/or OM that CO2 would contact in the reservoir as it migrates through pores and fracture networks. This is key information needed to better estimate the CO2 storage resource potential of organic-rich shales and other tight reservoirs. Additional work is needed to determine the sorptive capacity of the individual sample components (OM and clay minerals) at reservoir conditions so that this approach and the refined CO2 storage resource equation can be applied to other shale and unconventional reservoirs. In addition, subsequent work should be performed to better understand the number of images needed to use stereological approaches to estimate the volume of sample components using 2-D imagery, to explore machine learning techniques to differentiate between induced vs. natural fractures, and to estimate the connectivity of pores and fracture networks using 2-D imagery. Being able to derive this information at the microscale would facilitate scaling up of the sample characterization data used for reservoir modeling and simulation to estimate the CO2 storage resource potential of tight formations.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Simulating Atmospheric Processes in Earth System Models and Quantifying Uncertainties With Deep Learning Multi‐Member and Stochastic Parameterizations

Abstract Deep learning is a powerful tool to represent subgrid processes in climate models, but many application cases have so far used idealized settings and deterministic approaches. Here, we develop stochastic parameterizations with calibrated uncertainty quantification to learn subgrid convective and turbulent processes and surface radiative fluxes of a superparameterization embedded in an Earth System Model (ESM). We explore three methods to construct stochastic parameterizations: (a) a single Deep Neural Network (DNN) with Monte Carlo Dropout; (b) a multi‐member parameterization; and (c) a Variational Encoder Decoder with latent space perturbation. We show that the multi‐member parameterization improves the representation of convective processes, especially in the planetary boundary layer, compared to individual DNNs. The respective uncertainty quantification illustrates that methods (b) and (c) are advantageous compared to a dropout‐based DNN parameterization regarding the spread of convective processes. Hybrid simulations with our best‐performing multi‐member parameterizations remained challenging and crash within the first days. Therefore, we develop a pragmatic partial coupling strategy relying on the superparameterization for condensate emulation. Partial coupling reduces the computational efficiency of hybrid Earth‐like simulations but enables model stability over 5 months with our multi‐member parameterizations. However, our hybrid simulations exhibit biases in thermodynamic fields and differences in precipitation patterns. Despite this, the multi‐member parameterizations enable improvements in reproducing tropical extreme precipitation compared to a traditional convection parameterization. Despite these challenges, our results indicate the potential of a new generation of multi‐member machine learning parameterizations leveraging uncertainty quantification to improve the representation of stochasticity of subgrid effects.

Behrens, Gunnar [Deutsches Zentrum für Luft‐ und R↗
DOE OSTI2025

Navigating the Noise: Bringing Clarity to ML Parameterization Design With O $\boldsymbol{\mathcal{O}}$(100) Ensembles

Abstract Machine‐learning (ML) parameterizations of subgrid processes (here of turbulence, convection, and radiation) may one day replace conventional parameterizations by emulating high‐resolution physics without the cost of explicit simulation. However, uncertainty about the relationship between offline and online performance (i.e., when integrated with a large‐scale general circulation model) hinders their development. Much of this uncertainty stems from limited sampling of the noisy, emergent effects of upstream ML design decisions on downstream online hybrid simulation. Our work rectifies the sampling issue via the construction of a semi‐automated, end‐to‐end pipeline for size ensembles of hybrid simulations, revealing important nuances in how systematic reductions in offline error manifest in changes to online error and online stability. For example, removing dropout and switching from a Mean Squared Error to a Mean Absolute Error loss both reduce offline error, but they have opposite effects on online error and online stability. Other design decisions, like incorporating memory, converting moisture input from specific humidity to relative humidity, using batch normalization, and training on multiple climates do not come with any such compromises. Finally, we show that ensemble sizes of may be necessary to reliably detect causally relevant differences online. By enabling rapid online experimentation at scale, we can empirically settle debates regarding subgrid ML parameterization design that would have otherwise remained unresolved in the noise.

Lin, Jerry [Department of Earth System Sciences Un↗
DOE OSTI2025

Surrogate models for development of unconventional shale reservoirs by an integrated numerical approach of hydraulic fracturing, flow and geomechanics, and machine learning

We develop well-completion surrogate models by taking an integrated workflow of hydraulic fracturing, flow, geomechanics, and machine learning simulation. There are three steps in the proposed workflow. First, history-matching processes are conducted with the field data including pumping and production data for characterization. Second, full-physics simulation is performed with various parameters of the field development (e.g., cluster spacing, clusters per stage, pumping rates and times, amount of proppant, and well spacing) to generate multiple simulation results by changing the parameters of the completion design with well-known hydraulic fracturing, reservoir, geomechanics simulators to calculate fracture geometry, reservoir depressurization, induced stress changes. The workflow is demonstrated over a field in the Southern Midland Basin. Here, we take two completion scenarios: a single well case followed by a multi-well case. Finally, a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) machine learning algorithm is employed to create surrogate models that can replicate the full-physics simulation results. Furthermore, results show that the trained models applied in the single well and multi-well cases for a particular geological system can provide good accuracy close to those provided by full-physics simulations. Specifically, the site-specific surrogate models can predict fracture parameters (length, height, and surface area) and cumulative production accurately with computational efficiency, suggesting our proposed workflow can be used as a pragmatic tool for expediting the well completion optimization process.

Geomechanics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Recyclable Design for Retaining High Solar Absorptivity of the Media in CSP

Efficient thermal energy storage is pivotal to lowering the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) plants. In solid-particle systems, however, prolonged high-temperature service degrades particle solar absorptivity, eroding overall efficiency. This project demonstrates a hydrogen-assisted recovery process that reliably restores absorptivity to >90 %, offering a practical route to sustain long-term CSP performance. Bench-scale investigations mapped the reduction kinetics of optically faded particles across hydrogen concentrations, temperatures, and residence times. Coupling mass-spectrometric monitoring with machine-learning optimization minimized energy demand while maximizing absorptivity gain. The resulting process window—moderate hydrogen partial pressures, 15–30 min dwell times, and temperatures well below initial calcination levels—cuts energy consumption well below that of incumbent re-blackening methods. A prototype recovery reactor processed multiple 2 kg batches with repeatable outcomes, confirming scalability and operational robustness. Integrated techno-economic analysis indicates material and operating cost reductions exceeding 15 % relative to conventional particle replacement or chemical re-coating, translating directly into lower LCOE for next-generation CSP facilities. By uniting fundamental reaction-kinetics insight with pragmatic engineering, this work advances the solid-particle pathway, delivering a cost-effective, field-deployable solution to one of CSP’s key durability challenges and strengthening the commercial outlook for high-temperature renewable power.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2016

A Higher Fidelity Cost Analysis of Wind and Uranium from Seawater Acquisition symbiotic Infrastructure

The vastness of the worlds oceans makes the low concentration of naturally existing uranium, 3.3 ppb, appealing as a recoverable natural resource. Although ample uranium is available currently through conventional means, uranium from seawater is a widely studied topic due to the long term security it can assure the nuclear fuel cycle. It is important to mention that seawater uranium is not meant to act as a direct competitor to terrestrial uranium, but instead create a cost ceiling that provides economic stability and potential savings. Additionally, seawater uranium could circumvent some of the environmental impacts associated with recovery of any land based resource. The system currently studied by a nation-wide consortium of national lab and university partners involves the passive recovery of uranium using polymer based adsorbents. High Density Polyethylene fibers undergo a radiation induced graft co-polymerization process involving amidoxime, to attract uranium, and a polar co-monomer to increase hydrophilicity. After further chemical conditioning adsorbent fibers are braided into 60 meter strands for marine deployment. Braids are moored to the ocean floor for the duration of their soaking campaign. After sufficient seawater exposure they are winched up so the adsorbed uranium may be eluted off the braids. This deployment and elution process is repeated multiple times before the adsorbent's ultimate disposal, where its lifetime is dictated by the degradation it suffers with each re-cycle. Previous economic analyses have identified the adsorbent production and mooring as the most expensive components of the recovery process. Therefore, a later publication by Picard et al. proposed an alternative deployment method in an effort to reduce seawater uranium production cost. The Wind and Uranium from Seawater Acquisition symbiotic Infrastructure (WUSABI) couples uranium recovery with off shore wind to reduce mooring capital cost. The uranium harvesting structure attached to the underwater base of the wind turbine supports elution tanks and an adsorbent pulley system. This allows for a nearly autonomous mooring and elution procedure as adsorbent is in constant motion, reaching the elution tanks at the end of its soaking campaign. Although the original publication did include a short economic section, further analysis was carried out to provide a higher fidelity production cost estimate for uranium recovered by this system. Sufficient detail was provided regarding the capital and operating costs of the novel uranium harvesting units. The adsorbent production and uranium elution and purification steps however were estimated by simpler methods, for example applying a previously reported cost for producing a unit mass of adsorbent. This methodology, although satisfactory for the zeroth-order approximation desired in the original publication, overlooks many of the complexities and feedbacks embedded in the full cost model, which are necessary to provide a more accurate estimate. Perhaps more importantly, given the constant updates regarding adsorbent synthesis and performance this value quickly become outdated. Syncing an improved estimate for the WUSABI harvesting units with the existing economic analysis for adsorbent production and elution, which evolves in tandem with the technology, provides a more robust production cost estimate that will remain current over time. In addition to the updates and higher level of detail provided in this independent analysis, consistency in methodology allows for accurate comparison of uranium production costs across recovery methods. (authors)

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗