The synthesis of a covalent-organic framework for applications in quantum computing [Slides]
Abstract not provided.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
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Quantifying Uncertainty in PV Energy Estimates Final Report
Uncertainty in PV energy estimates is "one of the most critical areas of lack of understanding" according to independent engineers, financiers, PV model developers, and other industry stakeholders. The primary problem is a lack of rigorous, transparent, widely accepted methods for quantifying uncertainty in energy production estimates. Uncertainty in energy production estimates arises from variability of the solar resource, inexact PV performance models and their parameters, and system reliability considerations. Uncertainty in annual energy production is frequently calculated for larger projects in order to quantify financial risk. Key statistics for energy, such as the P-values "P50" and "P90" (the annual energy values that are exceeded in future years with 50\% and 90\% probability, respectively) are used by financing institutions to calculate the repayment risk for the project. The current methods to estimate these statistics are typically proprietary, specialized, and involve significant post-processing of commercial performance model results. This black-box approach leads to inconsistent P-value estimates from different parties, which reduces investors' confidence in the results. Since the financial community bases its risk assessment on these estimates, reduced confidence increases perceived project risk, and consequently financing costs. The goal of this project was to establish a set of best practices for quantifying uncertainty in energy production estimates, including identifying what sources of uncertainty must be considered with clear definitions and metrics, determining which sources are the biggest drivers of uncertainty, and providing a computationally efficient framework for combining different sources of uncertainty that is flexible enough to accommodate substitutions of data or methods when better information is available. We engaged a wide set of stakeholders to ensure industry endorsement and adoption, and leveraged complementary projects investigating individual sources of uncertainty in great detail, as well as others' work that started down this path.
ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,SOLAR ENERGY↗
Practical and Optimal Sequential Bayesian Experimental Design for Complex Systems Incorporating Human Experimenter Preferences (Final Scientific/Technical Report)
Experiments are indispensable for developing models of complex systems. Carefully designed experiments can provide substantial savings for these expensive data-acquisition opportunities. However, designs based on heuristics are often suboptimal for systems with multiphysics, nonlinear dynamics, and uncertain and noisy environments. Optimal experimental design, while leveraging predictive models, seeks to systematically quantify and maximize the value of experiments. In this project, we focused on the design of multiple experiments, where current approaches are largely suboptimal: batch-design does not adapt to new data acquired during the experiment campaign (no feedback), and greedy/myopic design ignores future dynamics and consequences (no lookahead). We developed the mathematical framework and computational methods for sequential optimal experimental design (sOED) for complex systems. We enabled tractable model-based sOED in a rigorous manner through novel algorithms based on reinforcement learning, and investigated the effects of human experimenters on the design process. Our methods are fully Bayesian, able to quantify and update uncertainty in a principled manner. The traits aimed by our approach—mathematical rigor and optimality, human effects and uncertainty quantification, computational practicality—are crucial for elevating the standards of artificial intelligence (AI) to support decision-making in scientific domains, and contribute toward trust and realistic adoption of AI in experimental design practice.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
TCAM-SSD: A Framework for Search-Based Computing in Solid-State Drives
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Wong, Ryan↗
Flexible Pilot Jobs Framework for Distributed High Throughput Computing
Fermilab Italian Summer School 2022
Terranova, Franco↗
A Macroalgal Cultivation Modeling System (MACMODS): Evaluating the Role of Physical-Biological Coupling on Nutrients and Farm Yield
Offshore aquaculture has the potential to expand the macroalgal industry. However, moving into deeper waters requires suspended structures that will present novel farm-environment interactions. Here, we present a computational modeling framework, the Macroalgal Cultivation Modeling System (MACMODS), to explore within-farm modifications to light, seawater flow, and nutrient fields across time and space scales relevant to macroalgae. A regional ocean model informs the site-specific setting, the Santa Barbara Channel in the Southern California Bight. A fine-scale hydrodynamic model predicts modified flows and turbulent mixing within the farm. A spatially resolved macroalgal growth model, parameterized for giant kelp, Macrocystis pyrifera , predicts kelp biomass. Key findings from model integration are that regional ocean conditions set overall farm performance, while fine-scale within-farm circulation and nutrient delivery are important to resolve variation in within-farm macroalgal performance. Therefore, we conclude that models resolving within-farm dynamics can provide benefit to farmers with insight on how farm design and regional ocean conditions interact to influence overall yield. Here, the presence of repeating longlines aligned with the mean current generate flow diversions around the farm as well as attached Langmuir circulations and increased turbulence intensity. These flow-induced phenomena lead to less biomass in the interior portion of the farm relative to the edges. We also find that there is an effluent “footprint” that extends as much as 20 km beyond the farm. In this regard, MACMODS can be used to not only evaluate farm design and cultivation practices that maximize yield but also explore interactions between the farm and ecosystem in order to minimize impacts.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Improving the Precision of First-Principles Calculation of Parton Physics from Lattice Quantum Chromodynamics
Large momentum effective theory (LaMET) provides a general framework for computing the multi-dimensional partonic structure of the proton from first principles using lattice quantum chromodynamics (QCD). In this effective field theory approach, LaMET predicts parton distributions through a power expansion and perturbative matching of a class of Euclidean observables—quasi-distributions—evaluated at large proton momenta. Recent advances in lattice renormalization, such as the hybrid scheme with leading renormalon resummation, together with improved matching kernel that incorporates higher-loop corrections and resummations, have enhanced both the perturbative and power accuracy of LaMET, enabling a reliable quantification of theoretical uncertainties. Moreover, the Coulomb-gauge correlator approach further simplifies lattice analyses and improves the precision of transverse-momentum-dependent structures, particularly in the non-perturbative region. State-of-the-art LaMET calculations have already yielded certain parton observables with important phenomenological impact. In addition, the recently proposed kinematically enhanced lattice interpolation operators promise access to unprecedented proton momenta with greatly improved signal-to-noise ratios, which will extend the range of LaMET prediction and further suppress the power corrections. The remaining challenges, such as controlling excited-state contamination in lattice matrix elements and extracting gluonic distributions, are expected to benefit from emerging lattice techniques for ground-state isolation and noise reduction. Thus, lattice QCD studies of parton physics have entered an exciting stage of precision control and systematic improvement, which will have a broader impact for nuclear and particle experiments.
Zhao, Yong [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Arg↗
Master Plan for prediction of vehicle interior noise
Substantial advances have been made in improving the analytical methods available for prediction of interior noise and providing an experimental data base for their assessment and validation. A review of recent accomplishments, including representative results, is presented in the context of a Master Plan. It is suggested that modal representations of structural walls and acoustic cavities provide a useful conceptual and computational theoretical framework for including the mass, stiffness and damping of both the structure and acoustic cavity. Geometrical details and acoustic damping (absorption) are included in a rigorous manner. Future efforts, both near term and long term, are identified which are required to complete the Master Plan and provide the noise control practitioner with access to these improved methods.
Dowell, E. H.↗
The linear regulator problem for parabolic systems
The paper presents an approximation framework for computation (in finite dimensional spaces) of Riccati operators that can be guaranteed to converge to the Ricccati operator in feedback controls for abstract evolution systems in a Hilbert space. It is shown how these results may be used in the linear optimal regulator problem for a large class of parabolic systems.
Banks, H. T.↗
Perceptual issues in scientific visualization
In order to develop effective tools for scientific visulaization, consideration must be given to the perceptual competencies, limitations, and biases of the human operator. Perceptual psychology has amassed a rich body of research on these issues and can lend insight to the development of visualization tehcniques. Within a perceptual psychological framework, the computer display screen can best be thought of as a special kind of impoverished visual environemnt. Guidelines can be gleaned from the psychological literature to help visualization tool designers avoid ambiguities and/or illusions in the resulting data displays.
Kaiser, Mary K.↗
Software life cycle methodologies and environments
Products of this project will significantly improve the quality and productivity of Space Station Freedom Program software processes by: improving software reliability and safety; and broadening the range of problems that can be solved with computational solutions. Projects brings in Computer Aided Software Engineering (CASE) technology for: Environments such as Engineering Script Language/Parts Composition System (ESL/PCS) application generator, Intelligent User Interface for cost avoidance in setting up operational computer runs, Framework programmable platform for defining process and software development work flow control, Process for bringing CASE technology into an organization's culture, and CLIPS/CLIPS Ada language for developing expert systems; and methodologies such as Method for developing fault tolerant, distributed systems and a method for developing systems for common sense reasoning and for solving expert systems problems when only approximate truths are known.
Fridge, Ernest↗
Optimization of Systems with Uncertainty: Initial Developments for Performance, Robustness and Reliability Based Designs
This paper presents a study on the optimization of systems with structured uncertainties, whose inputs and outputs can be exhaustively described in the probabilistic sense. By propagating the uncertainty from the input to the output in the space of the probability density functions and the moments, optimization problems that pursue performance, robustness and reliability based designs are studied. Be specifying the desired outputs in terms of desired probability density functions and then in terms of meaningful probabilistic indices, we settle a computationally viable framework for solving practical optimization problems. Applications to static optimization and stability control are used to illustrate the relevance of incorporating uncertainty in the early stages of the design. Several examples that admit a full probabilistic description of the output in terms of the design variables and the uncertain inputs are used to elucidate the main features of the generic problem and its solution. Extensions to problems that do not admit closed form solutions are also evaluated. Concrete evidence of the importance of using a consistent probabilistic formulation of the optimization problem and a meaningful probabilistic description of its solution is provided in the examples. In the stability control problem the analysis shows that standard deterministic approaches lead to designs with high probability of running into instability. The implementation of such designs can indeed have catastrophic consequences.
Crespo, Luis G.↗
Numerical Evaluation of Mode 1 Stress Intensity Factor as a Function of Material Orientation For BX-265 Foam Insulation Material
Foam; a cellular material, is found all around us. Bone and cork are examples of biological cell materials. Many forms of man-made foam have found practical applications as insulating materials. NASA uses the BX-265 foam insulation material on the external tank (ET) for the Space Shuttle. This is a type of Spray-on Foam Insulation (SOFI), similar to the material used to insulate attics in residential construction. This foam material is a good insulator and is very lightweight, making it suitable for space applications. Breakup of segments of this foam insulation on the shuttle ET impacting the shuttle thermal protection tiles during liftoff is believed to have caused the space shuttle Columbia failure during re-entry. NASA engineers are very interested in understanding the processes that govern the breakup/fracture of this complex material from the shuttle ET. The foam is anisotropic in nature and the required stress and fracture mechanics analysis must include the effects of the direction dependence on material properties. Material testing at NASA MSFC has indicated that the foam can be modeled as a transversely isotropic material. As a first step toward understanding the fracture mechanics of this material, we present a general theoretical and numerical framework for computing stress intensity factors (SIFs), under mixed-mode loading conditions, taking into account the material anisotropy. We present mode I SIFs for middle tension - M(T) - test specimens, using 3D finite element stress analysis (ANSYS) and FRANC3D fracture analysis software, developed by the Cornel1 Fracture Group. Mode I SIF values are presented for a range of foam material orientations. Also, NASA has recorded the failure load for various M(T) specimens. For a linear analysis, the mode I SIF will scale with the far-field load. This allows us to numerically estimate the mode I fracture toughness for this material. The results represent a quantitative basis for evaluating the strength and fracture properties of anisotropic foam insulation material.
Knudsen, Erik↗
A Geometric Approach to Modeling Microstructurally Small Fatigue Crack Formation: Simulation and Prediction of Crack Nucleation in AA 7075-T651 - 2
The objective of this paper is to develop further a framework for computationally modeling microstructurally small fatigue crack growth in AA 7075-T651 [1]. The focus is on the nucleation event, when a crack extends from within a second-phase particle into a surrounding grain, since this has been observed to be an initiating mechanism for fatigue crack growth in this alloy. It is hypothesized that nucleation can be predicted by computing a non-local nucleation metric near the crack front. The hypothesis is tested by employing a combination of experimentation and nite element modeling in which various slip-based and energy-based nucleation metrics are tested for validity, where each metric is derived from a continuum crystal plasticity formulation. To investigate each metric, a non-local procedure is developed for the calculation of nucleation metrics in the neighborhood of a crack front. Initially, an idealized baseline model consisting of a single grain containing a semi-ellipsoidal surface particle is studied to investigate the dependence of each nucleation metric on lattice orientation, number of load cycles, and non-local regularization method. This is followed by a comparison of experimental observations and computational results for microstructural models constructed by replicating the observed microstructural geometry near second-phase particles in fatigue specimens. It is found that orientation strongly influences the direction of slip localization and, as a result, in uences the nucleation mechanism. Also, the baseline models, replication models, and past experimental observation consistently suggest that a set of particular grain orientations is most likely to nucleate fatigue cracks. It is found that a continuum crystal plasticity model and a non-local nucleation metric can be used to predict the nucleation event in AA 7075-T651. However, nucleation metric threshold values that correspond to various nucleation governing mechanisms must be calibrated.
Hochhalter, Jake D.↗
Multiscale Modeling of Ultra High Temperature Ceramics (UHTC) ZrB2 and HfB2: Application to Lattice Thermal Conductivity
We are developing a multiscale framework in computational modeling for the ultra high temperature ceramics (UHTC) ZrB2 and HfB2. These materials are characterized by high melting point, good strength, and reasonable oxidation resistance. They are candidate materials for a number of applications in extreme environments including sharp leading edges of hypersonic aircraft. In particular, we used a combination of ab initio methods, atomistic simulations and continuum computations to obtain insights into fundamental properties of these materials. Ab initio methods were used to compute basic structural, mechanical and thermal properties. From these results, a database was constructed to fit a Tersoff style interatomic potential suitable for atomistic simulations. These potentials were used to evaluate the lattice thermal conductivity of single crystals and the thermal resistance of simple grain boundaries. Finite element method (FEM) computations using atomistic results as inputs were performed with meshes constructed on SEM images thereby modeling the realistic microstructure. These continuum computations showed the reduction in thermal conductivity due to the grain boundary network.
Lawson, John W.↗
Multiscale Modeling of UHTC: Thermal Conductivity
We are developing a multiscale framework in computational modeling for the ultra high temperature ceramics (UHTC) ZrB2 and HfB2. These materials are characterized by high melting point, good strength, and reasonable oxidation resistance. They are candidate materials for a number of applications in extreme environments including sharp leading edges of hypersonic aircraft. In particular, we used a combination of ab initio methods, atomistic simulations and continuum computations to obtain insights into fundamental properties of these materials. Ab initio methods were used to compute basic structural, mechanical and thermal properties. From these results, a database was constructed to fit a Tersoff style interatomic potential suitable for atomistic simulations. These potentials were used to evaluate the lattice thermal conductivity of single crystals and the thermal resistance of simple grain boundaries. Finite element method (FEM) computations using atomistic results as inputs were performed with meshes constructed on SEM images thereby modeling the realistic microstructure. These continuum computations showed the reduction in thermal conductivity due to the grain boundary network.
Lawson, John W.↗
Autonomous Navigation for Deep Space Missions
Navigation (determining where the spacecraft is at any given time, controlling its path to achieve desired targets), performed using ground-in- the-loop techniques: (1) Data includes 2-way radiometric (Doppler, range), interferometric (Delta- Differential One-way Range), and optical (images of natural bodies taken by onboard camera) (2) Data received on the ground, processed to determine orbit, commands sent to execute maneuvers to control orbit. A self-contained, onboard, autonomous navigation system can: (1) Eliminate delays due to round-trip light time (2) Eliminate the human factors in ground-based processing (3) Reduce turnaround time from navigation update to minutes, down to seconds (4) React to late-breaking data. At JPL, we have developed the framework and computational elements of an autonomous navigation system, called AutoNav. It was originally developed as one of the technologies for the Deep Space 1 mission, launched in 1998; subsequently used on three other spacecraft, for four different missions. The primary use has been on comet missions to track comets during flybys, and impact one comet.
navigation↗
Assessment of Particle Drag Models Using GBK Experimental Data
Developing a simulation capability to model dust-laden flows requires the ability to accurately predict the velocity of a particle as it travels through a shock layer, nozzle plume, or the flow of an experimental facility. The primary mechanism that determines the particle velocity is the drag force acting on the particle. The drag force is typically expressed in terms of the frontal area of the particle, its velocity relative to the surrounding fluid, the density of the surrounding fluid, and a non-dimensional drag coefficient. As part of the ESM project, an integrated CFD-particle trajectory code named US3D-DUST is being developed]. This code uses a Lagrangian-based framework that computes the trajectories of individual particles in the flow. Several of the most commonly-used spherical drag models have been implemented in US3D-DUST. In this study, the US3D-DUST code will be used to simulate particle flows in the GBK facility. Differences in particle velocities predicted using the different drag models will be compared against recent GBK data
Dusty flow↗